A dynamic programming model for optimising feeding and slaughter decisions regarding fattening pigs

Costs of purchasing new piglets and of feeding them until slaughter are the main variable expenditures in pig fattening. They both depend on slaughter intensity, the nature of feeding patterns and the technological constraints of pig fattening, such as genotype. Therefore, it is of interest to examine the effect of production technology and changes in input and output prices on feeding and slaughter decisions. This study examines the problem by using a dynamic programming model that links genetic characteristics of a pig to feeding decisions and the timing of slaughter and takes into account how these jointly affect the quality-adjusted value of a carcass. The model simulates the growth mechanism of a pig under optional feeding and slaughter patterns and then solves the optimal feeding and slaughter decisions recursively. The state of nature and the genotype of a pig are known in the analysis. The main contribution of this study is the dynamic approach that explicitly takes into account carcass quality while simultaneously optimising feeding and slaughter decisions. The method maximises the internal rate of return to the capacity unit. Hence, the results can have vital impact on competitiveness of pig production, which is known to be quite capital-intensive. The results suggest that producer can significantly benefit from improvements in the pig's genotype, because they improve efficiency of pig production. The annual benefits from obtaining pigs of improved genotype can be more than €20 per capacity unit. The annual net benefits of animal breeding to pig farms can also be considerable. Animals of improved genotype can reach optimal slaughter maturity quicker and produce leaner meat than animals of poor genotype. In order to fully utilise the benefits of animal breeding, the producer must adjust feeding and slaughter patterns on the basis of genotype. The results suggest that the producer can benefit from flexible feeding technology. The flexible feeding technology segregates pigs into groups according to their weight, carcass leanness, genotype and sex and thereafter optimises feeding and slaughter decisions separately for these groups. Typically, such a technology provides incentives to feed piglets with protein-rich feed such that the genetic potential to produce leaner meat is fully utilised. When the pig approaches slaughter maturity, the share of protein-rich feed in the diet gradually decreases and the amount of energy-rich feed increases. Generally, the optimal slaughter weight is within the weight range that pays the highest price per kilogram of pig meat. The optimal feeding pattern and the optimal timing of slaughter depend on price ratios. Particularly, an increase in the price of pig meat provides incentives to increase the growth rates up to the pig's biological maximum by increasing the amount of energy in the feed. Price changes and changes in slaughter premium can also have large income effects. Key words: barley, carcass composition, dynamic programming, feeding, genotypes, lean, pig fattening, precision agriculture, productivity, slaughter weight, soybeans

Soil carbon modelling as a tool for carbon balance studies in forestry

Soils represent a remarkable stock of carbon, and forest soils are estimated to hold half of the global stock of soil carbon. Topical concern about the effects of climate change and forest management on soil carbon as well as practical reporting requirements set by climate conventions have created a need to assess soil carbon stock changes reliably and transparently. The large spatial variability of soil carbon commensurate with relatively slow changes in stocks hinders the assessment of soil carbon stocks and their changes by direct measurements. Models therefore widely serve to estimate carbon stocks and stock changes in soils. This dissertation aimed to develop the soil carbon model YASSO for upland forest soils. The model was aimed to take into account the most important processes controlling the decomposition in soils, yet remain simple enough to ensure its practical applicability in different applications. The model structure and assumptions were presented and the model parameters were defined with empirical measurements. The model was evaluated by studying the sensitivities of the model results to parameter values, by estimating the precision of the results with an uncertainty analysis, and by assessing the accuracy of the model by comparing the predictions against measured data and to the results of an alternative model. The model was applied to study the effects of intensified biomass extraction on the forest carbon balance and to estimate the effects of soil carbon deficit on net greenhouse gas emissions of energy use of forest residues. The model was also applied in an inventory based method to assess the national scale forest carbon balance for Finland’s forests from 1922 to 2004. YASSO managed to describe sufficiently the effects of both the variable litter and climatic conditions on decomposition. When combined with the stand models or other systems providing litter information, the dynamic approach of the model proved to be powerful for estimating changes in soil carbon stocks on different scales. The climate dependency of the model, the effects of nitrogen on decomposition and forest growth as well as the effects of soil texture on soil carbon stock dynamics are areas for development when considering the applicability of the model to different research questions, different land use types and wider geographic regions. Intensified biomass extraction affects soil carbon stocks, and these changes in stocks should be taken into account when considering the net effects of forest residue utilisation as energy. On a national scale, soil carbon stocks play an important role in forest carbon balances.

Components of productivity growth in Finnish agriculture

The objective was to measure productivity growth and its components in Finnish agriculture, especially in dairy farming. The objective was also to compare different methods and models - both parametric (stochastic frontier analysis) and non-parametric (data envelopment analysis) - in estimating the components of productivity growth and the sensitivity of results with respect to different approaches. The parametric approach was also applied in the investigation of various aspects of heterogeneity. A common feature of the first three of five articles is that they concentrate empirically on technical change, technical efficiency change and the scale effect, mainly on the basis of the decompositions of Malmquist productivity index. The last two articles explore an intermediate route between the Fisher and Malmquist productivity indices and develop a detailed but meaningful decomposition for the Fisher index, including also empirical applications. Distance functions play a central role in the decomposition of Malmquist and Fisher productivity indices. Three panel data sets from 1990s have been applied in the study. The common feature of all data used is that they cover the periods before and after Finnish EU accession. Another common feature is that the analysis mainly concentrates on dairy farms or their roughage production systems. Productivity growth on Finnish dairy farms was relatively slow in the 1990s: approximately one percent per year, independent of the method used. Despite considerable annual variation, productivity growth seems to have accelerated towards the end of the period. There was a slowdown in the mid-1990s at the time of EU accession. No clear immediate effects of EU accession with respect to technical efficiency could be observed. Technical change has been the main contributor to productivity growth on dairy farms. However, average technical efficiency often showed a declining trend, meaning that the deviations from the best practice frontier are increasing over time. This suggests different paths of adjustment at the farm level. However, different methods to some extent provide different results, especially for the sub-components of productivity growth. In most analyses on dairy farms the scale effect on productivity growth was minor. A positive scale effect would be important for improving the competitiveness of Finnish agriculture through increasing farm size. This small effect may also be related to the structure of agriculture and to the allocation of investments to specific groups of farms during the research period. The result may also indicate that the utilization of scale economies faces special constraints in Finnish conditions. However, the analysis of a sample of all types of farms suggested a more considerable scale effect than the analysis on dairy farms.

Intensity, productivity and efficiency in agriculture in Finland and implications for N and P fertiliser management

The purpose of this study was to evaluate intensity, productivity and efficiency in agriculture in Finland and show implications for N and P fertiliser management. Environmental concerns relating to agricultural production have been and still are focused on arguments about policies that affect agriculture. These policies constrain production while demand for agricultural products such as food, fibre and energy continuously increase. Therefore the importance of increasing productivity is a great challenge to agriculture. Over the last decades producers have experienced several large changes in the production environment such as the policy reform when Finland joined the EU 1995. Other and market changes occurred with the further EU enlargement with neighbouring countries in 2005 and with the decoupling of supports over the 2006-2007 period. Decreasing prices a decreased number of farmers and decreased profitability in agricultural production have resulted from these changes and constraints and of technological development. It is known that the accession to the EU 1995 would herald changes in agriculture. Especially of interest was how the sudden changes in prices of commodities on especially those of cereals, decreased by 60%, would influence agricultural production. The knowledge of properties of the production function increased in importance as a consequence of price changes. A research on the economic instruments to regulate productions was carried out and combined with earlier studies in paper V. In paper I the objective was to compare two different technologies, the conventional farming and the organic farming, determine differences in productivity and technical efficiency. In addition input specific or environmental efficiencies were analysed. The heterogeneity of agricultural soils and its implications were analysed in article II. In study III the determinants of technical inefficiency were analysed. The aspects and possible effects of the instability in policies due to a partial decoupling of production factors and products were studied in paper IV. Consequently connection between technical efficiency based on the turnover and the sales return was analysed in this study. Simple economic instruments such as fertiliser taxes have a direct effect on fertiliser consumption and indirectly increase the value of organic fertilisers. However, fertiliser taxes, do not fully address the N and P management problems adequately and are therefore not suitable for nutrient management improvements in general. Productivity of organic farms is lower on average than conventional farms and the difference increases when looking at selling returns only. The organic sector needs more research and development on productivity. Livestock density in organic farming increases productivity, however, there is an upper limit to livestock densities on organic farms and therefore nutrient on organic farms are also limited. Soil factors affects phosphorous and nitrogen efficiency. Soils like sand and silt have lower input specific overall efficiency for nutrients N and P. Special attention is needed for the management on these soils. Clay soils and soils with moderate clay content have higher efficiency. Soil heterogeneity is cause for an unavoidable inefficiency in agriculture.

Valuation of reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland : Choice experiment with attention to heterogeneous and discontinuous preferences and respondent uncertainty

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is a serious problem. This thesis estimates the benefit to Finns from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, the most eutrophied part of the Baltic Sea, by applying the choice experiment method, which belongs to the family of stated preference methods. Because stated preference methods have been subject to criticism, e.g., due to their hypothetical survey context, this thesis contributes to the discussion by studying two anomalies that may lead to biased welfare estimates: respondent uncertainty and preference discontinuity. The former refers to the difficulty of stating one s preferences for an environmental good in a hypothetical context. The latter implies a departure from the continuity assumption of conventional consumer theory, which forms the basis for the method and the analysis. In the three essays of the thesis, discrete choice data are analyzed with the multinomial logit and mixed logit models. On average, Finns are willing to contribute to the water quality improvement. The probability for willingness increases with residential or recreational contact with the gulf, higher than average income, younger than average age, and the absence of dependent children in the household. On average, for Finns the relatively most important characteristic of water quality is water clarity followed by the desire for fewer occurrences of blue-green algae. For future nutrient reduction scenarios, the annual mean household willingness to pay estimates range from 271 to 448 and the aggregate welfare estimates for Finns range from 28 billion to 54 billion euros, depending on the model and the intensity of the reduction. Out of the respondents (N=726), 72.1% state in a follow-up question that they are either Certain or Quite certain about their answer when choosing the preferred alternative in the experiment. Based on the analysis of other follow-up questions and another sample (N=307), 10.4% of the respondents are identified as potentially having discontinuous preferences. In relation to both anomalies, the respondent- and questionnaire-specific variables are found among the underlying causes and a departure from standard analysis may improve the model fit and the efficiency of estimates, depending on the chosen modeling approach. The introduction of uncertainty about the future state of the Gulf increases the acceptance of the valuation scenario which may indicate an increased credibility of a proposed scenario. In conclusion, modeling preference heterogeneity is an essential part of the analysis of discrete choice data. The results regarding uncertainty in stating one s preferences and non-standard choice behavior are promising: accounting for these anomalies in the analysis may improve the precision of the estimates of benefit from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland.

Impacts of agriculture on amphibians at multiple scales

Agriculture-mediated habitat loss and degradation together with climate change are among the greatest global threats to species, communities, and ecosystem functioning. During the last century, more than 50% of the world's wetlands have been lost and agricultural activities have subjected wetland species to increased isolation and decreased quality of habitats. Likewise, as a part of agricultural intensification, the use of pesticides has increased notably, and pesticide residues occur frequently in wetlands making the exposure of wetland organisms to pesticides highly probable. In this thesis, a set of ecotoxicological and landscape ecological studies were carried out to investigate pesticide-effects on tadpoles, and species-habitat relationships of amphibians in agricultural landscapes. The results show that the fitness of R. temporaria tadpoles can be negatively affected by sublethal pesticide concentrations, and that pesticides may increase the costs of response to natural environmental stressors. However, tadpoles may also be able to compensate for some of the negative effects of pesticides. The results further demonstrate that both historic and current-day agricultural land use can negatively impact amphibians, but that in some cases the costs of living in agricultural habitats may only become apparent when amphibians face other environmental stressors, such as drought. Habitat heterogeneity may, however, increase the persistence of amphibians in agricultural landscapes. Hence, the results suggest that amphibians are likely to be affected by agricultural processes that operate at several spatial and temporal scales, and that it is probable that various processes related to current-day agriculture will affect both larval and adult amphibians. The results imply that maintaining dense wetland patterns could enhance persistence of amphibian populations in agricultural habitats, and indicate that heterogeneous landscapes may lower the risk of regional amphibian population declines under extreme weather perturbations.

Climate change and agriculture: theory and application of mitigation policies

Agriculture’s contribution to climate change is controversial as it is a significant source of greenhouse gases but also a sink of carbon. Hence its economic and technological potential to mitigate climate change have been argued to be noteworthy. However, social profitability of emission mitigation is a result from factors among emission reductions such as surface water quality impact or profit from production. Consequently, to value comprehensive results of agricultural climate emission mitigation practices, these co-effects to environment and economics should be taken into account. The objective of this thesis was to develop an integrated economic and ecological model to analyse the social welfare of crop cultivation in Finland on distinctive cultivation technologies, conventional tillage and conservation tillage (no-till). Further, we ask whether it would be privately or socially profitable to allocate some of barley cultivation for alternative land use, such as green set-aside or afforestation, when production costs, GHG’s and water quality impacts are taken into account. In the theoretical framework we depict the optimal input use and land allocation choices in terms of environmental impacts and profit from production and derive the optimal tax and payment policies for climate and water quality friendly land allocation. The empirical application of the model uses Finnish data about production cost and profit structure and environmental impacts. According to our results, given emission mitigation practices are not self-evidently beneficial for farmers or society. On the contrary, in some cases alternative land allocation could even reduce social welfare, profiting conventional crop cultivation. This is the case regarding mineral soils such as clay and silt soils. On organic agricultural soils, climate mitigation practices, in this case afforestation and green fallow give more promising results, decreasing climate emissions and nutrient runoff to water systems. No-till technology does not seem to profit climate mitigation although it does decrease other environmental impacts. Nevertheless, the data behind climate emission mitigation practices impact to production and climate is limited and partly contradictory. More specific experiment studies on interaction of emission mitigation practices and environment would be needed. Further study would be important. Particularly area specific production and environmental factors and also food security and safety and socio-economic impacts should be taken into account.

Precision Measurement of the X(3872) Mass in J/ψπ+π- Decays

We present an analysis of the mass of the X(3872) reconstructed via its decay to J/psi pi+ pi- using 2.4 fb^-1 of integrated luminosity from ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV, collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. The possible existence of two nearby mass states is investigated. Within the limits of our experimental resolution the data are consistent with a single state, and having no evidence for two states we set upper limits on the mass difference between two hypothetical states for different assumed ratios of contributions to the observed peak. For equal contributions, the 95% confidence level upper limit on the mass difference is 3.6 MeV/c^2. Under the single-state model the X(3872) mass is measured to be 3871.61 +- 0.16 (stat) +- 0.19 (syst) MeV/c^2, which is the most precise determination to date.

Microbiological characterisation of soils : Evaluation of some critical steps in data collection and experimental design

The study of soil microbiota and their activities is central to the understanding of many ecosystem processes such as decomposition and nutrient cycling. The collection of microbiological data from soils generally involves several sequential steps of sampling, pretreatment and laboratory measurements. The reliability of results is dependent on reliable methods in every step. The aim of this thesis was to critically evaluate some central methods and procedures used in soil microbiological studies in order to increase our understanding of the factors that affect the measurement results and to provide guidance and new approaches for the design of experiments. The thesis focuses on four major themes: 1) soil microbiological heterogeneity and sampling, 2) storage of soil samples, 3) DNA extraction from soil, and 4) quantification of specific microbial groups by the most-probable-number (MPN) procedure. Soil heterogeneity and sampling are discussed as a single theme because knowledge on spatial (horizontal and vertical) and temporal variation is crucial when designing sampling procedures. Comparison of adjacent forest, meadow and cropped field plots showed that land use has a strong impact on the degree of horizontal variation of soil enzyme activities and bacterial community structure. However, regardless of the land use, the variation of microbiological characteristics appeared not to have predictable spatial structure at 0.5-10 m. Temporal and soil depth-related patterns were studied in relation to plant growth in cropped soil. The results showed that most enzyme activities and microbial biomass have a clear decreasing trend in the top 40 cm soil profile and a temporal pattern during the growing season. A new procedure for sampling of soil microbiological characteristics based on stratified sampling and pre-characterisation of samples was developed. A practical example demonstrated the potential of the new procedure to reduce the analysis efforts involved in laborious microbiological measurements without loss of precision. The investigation of storage of soil samples revealed that freezing (-20 °C) of small sample aliquots retains the activity of hydrolytic enzymes and the structure of the bacterial community in different soil matrices relatively well whereas air-drying cannot be recommended as a storage method for soil microbiological properties due to large reductions in activity. Freezing below -70 °C was the preferred method of storage for samples with high organic matter content. Comparison of different direct DNA extraction methods showed that the cell lysis treatment has a strong impact on the molecular size of DNA obtained and on the bacterial community structure detected. An improved MPN method for the enumeration of soil naphthalene degraders was introduced as an alternative to more complex MPN protocols or the DNA-based quantification approach. The main advantage of the new method is the simple protocol and the possibility to analyse a large number of samples and replicates simultaneously.

High-precision diode-laser-based temperature measurement for air refractive index compensation

We present a laser-based system to measure the refractive index of air over a long path length. In optical distance measurements it is essential to know the refractive index of air with high accuracy. Commonly, the refractive index of air is calculated from the properties of the ambient air using either Ciddor or Edlén equations, where the dominant uncertainty component is in most cases the air temperature. The method developed in this work utilises direct absorption spectroscopy of oxygen to measure the average temperature of air and of water vapor to measure relative humidity. The method allows measurement of temperature and humidity over the same beam path as in optical distance measurement, providing spatially well matching data. Indoor and outdoor measurements demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. In particular, we demonstrate an effective compensation of the refractive index of air in an interferometric length measurement at a time-variant and spatially non-homogenous temperature over a long time period. Further, we were able to demonstrate 7 mK RMS noise over a 67 m path length using 120 s sample time. To our knowledge, this is the best temperature precision reported for a spectroscopic temperature measurement.