57 resultados para Population parameters

em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki


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In genetic epidemiology, population-based disease registries are commonly used to collect genotype or other risk factor information concerning affected subjects and their relatives. This work presents two new approaches for the statistical inference of ascertained data: a conditional and full likelihood approaches for the disease with variable age at onset phenotype using familial data obtained from population-based registry of incident cases. The aim is to obtain statistically reliable estimates of the general population parameters. The statistical analysis of familial data with variable age at onset becomes more complicated when some of the study subjects are non-susceptible, that is to say these subjects never get the disease. A statistical model for a variable age at onset with long-term survivors is proposed for studies of familial aggregation, using latent variable approach, as well as for prospective studies of genetic association studies with candidate genes. In addition, we explore the possibility of a genetic explanation of the observed increase in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Finland in recent decades and the hypothesis of non-Mendelian transmission of T1D associated genes. Both classical and Bayesian statistical inference were used in the modelling and estimation. Despite the fact that this work contains five studies with different statistical models, they all concern data obtained from nationwide registries of T1D and genetics of T1D. In the analyses of T1D data, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility alleles was not observed. In addition, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility genes did not make a plausible explanation for the increase in T1D incidence in Finland. Instead, the Human Leucocyte Antigen associations with T1D were confirmed in the population-based analysis, which combines T1D registry information, reference sample of healthy subjects and birth cohort information of the Finnish population. Finally, a substantial familial variation in the susceptibility of T1D nephropathy was observed. The presented studies show the benefits of sophisticated statistical modelling to explore risk factors for complex diseases.

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Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

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Farmland bird species have been declining in Europe. Many declines have coincided with general intensification of farming practices. In Finland, replacement of mixed farming, including rotational pastures, with specialized cultivation has been one of the most drastic changes from the 1960s to the 1990s. This kind of habitat deterioration limits the persistence of populations, as has been previously indicated from local populations. Integrated population monitoring, which gathers species-specific information of population size and demography, can be used to assess the response of a population to environment changes also at a large spatial scale. I targeted my analysis at the Finnish starling (Sturnus vulgaris). Starlings are common breeders in farmland habitats, but severe declines of local populations have been reported from Finland in the 1970s and 1980s and later from other parts of Europe. Habitat deterioration (replacement of pasture and grassland habitats with specialized cultivation areas) limits reproductive success of the species. I analysed regional population data in order to exemplify the importance of agricultural change to bird population dynamics. I used nestling ringing and nest-card data from 1951 to 2005 in order to quantify population trends and per capita reproductive success within several geographical regions (south/north and west/east aspects). I used matrix modelling, acknowledging age-specific survival and fecundity parameters and density-dependence, to model population dynamics. Finnish starlings declined by 80% from the end of the 1960s up to the end of the 1980s. The observed patterns and the model indicated that the population decline was due to the decline of the carrying capacity of farmland habitats. The decline was most severe in north Finland where populations largely become extinct. However, habitat deterioration was most severe in the southern breeding areas. The deteriorations in habitat quality decreased reproduction, which finally caused the decline. I suggest that poorly-productive northern populations have been partly maintained by immigration from the highly-productive southern populations. As the southern populations declined, ceasing emigration caused the population extinction in north. This phenomenon was explained with source sink population dynamics, which I structured and verified on the basis of a spatially explicit simulation model. I found that southern Finnish starling population exhibits ten-year cyclic regularity, a phenomenon that can be explained with delayed density-dependence in reproduction.

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A randomised and population-based screening design with new technologies has been applied to the organised cervical cancer screening programme in Finland. In this experiment the women invited to routine five-yearly screening are individually randomised to be screened with automation-assisted cytology, human papillomavirus (HPV) test or conventional cytology. By using the randomised design, the ultimate aim is to assess and compare the long-term outcomes of the different screening regimens. The primary aim of the current study was to evaluate, based on the material collected during the implementation phase of the Finnish randomised screening experiment, the cross-sectional performance and validity of automation-assisted cytology (Papnet system) and primary HPV DNA testing (Hybrid Capture II assay for 13 oncogenic HPV types) within service screening, in comparison to conventional cytology. The parameters of interest were test positivity rate, histological detection rate, relative sensitivity, relative specificity and positive predictive value. Also, the effect of variation in performance by screening laboratory on age-adjusted cervical cancer incidence was assessed. Based on the cross-sectional results, almost no differences were observed in the performance of conventional and automation-assisted screening. Instead, primary HPV screening found 58% (95% confidence interval 19-109%) more cervical lesions than conventional screening. However, this was mainly due to overrepresentation of mild- and moderate-grade lesions and, thus, is likely to result in overtreatment since a great deal of these lesions would never progress to invasive cancer. Primary screening with an HPV DNA test alone caused substantial loss in specificity in comparison to cytological screening. With the use of cytology triage test, the specificity of HPV screening improved close to the level of conventional cytology. The specificity of primary HPV screening was also increased by increasing the test positivity cutoff from the level recommended for clinical use, but the increase was more modest than the one gained with the use of cytology triage. The performance of the cervical cancer screening programme varied widely between the screening laboratories, but the variation in overall programme effectiveness between respective populations was more marginal from the very beginning of the organised screening activity. Thus, conclusive interpretations on the quality or success of screening should not be based on performance parameters only. In the evaluation of cervical cancer screening the outcome should be selected as closely as possible to the true measure of programme effectiveness, which is the number of invasive cervical cancers and subsequent deaths prevented in the target population. The evaluation of benefits and adverse effects of each new suggested screening technology should be performed before the technology becomes an accepted routine in the existing screening programme. At best, the evaluation is performed randomised, within the population and screening programme in question, which makes the results directly applicable to routine use.

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Electric activity of the heart consists of repeated cardiomyocyte depolarizations and repolarizations. Abnormalities in repolarization predispose to ventricular arrhythmias. In body surface electrocardiogram, ventricular repolarization generates the T wave. Several electrocardiographic measures have been developed both for clinical and research purposes to detect repolarization abnormalities. The study aim was to investigate modifiers of ventricular repolarization with the focus on the relationship of the left ventricular mass, antihypertensive drugs, and common gene variants, to electrocardiographic repolarization parameters. The prognostic value of repolarization parameters was also assessed. The study subjects originated from a population of more than 200 middle-aged hypertensive men attending the GENRES hypertension study, and from an epidemiological survey, the Health 2000 Study, including more than 6000 participants. Ventricular repolarization was analysed from digital standard 12-lead resting electrocardiograms with two QT-interval based repolarization parameters (QT interval, T-wave peak to T-wave end interval) and with a set of four T-wave morphology parameters. The results showed that in hypertensive men, a linear change in repolarization parameters is present even in the normal range of left ventricular mass, and that even mild left ventricular hypertrophy is associated with potentially adverse electrocardiographic repolarization changes. In addition, treatments with losartan, bisoprolol, amlodipine, and hydrochlorothiazide have divergent short-term effects on repolarization parameters in hypertensive men. Analyses of the general population sample showed that single nucleotide polymorphisms in KCNH2, KCNE1, and NOS1AP genes are associated with changes in QT-interval based repolarization parameters but not consistently with T-wave morphology parameters. T-wave morphology parameters, but not QT interval or T-wave peak to T-wave end interval, provided independent prognostic information on mortality. The prognostic value was specifically related to cardiovascular mortality. The results indicate that, in hypertension, altered ventricular repolarization is already present in mild left ventricular mass increase, and that commonly used antihypertensive drugs may relatively rapidly and treatment-specifically modify electrocardiographic repolarization parameters. Common variants in cardiac ion channel genes and NOS1AP gene may also modify repolarization-related arrhythmia vulnerability. In the general population, T-wave morphology parameters may be useful in the risk assessment of cardiovascular mortality.

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Background. Evidence of cognitive dysfunction in depressive and anxiety disorders is growing. However, the neuropsychological profile of young adults has received only little systematic investigation, although depressive and anxiety disorders are major public health problems for this age group. Available studies have typically failed to account for psychiatric comorbidity, and samples derived from population-based settings have also seldom been investigated. Burnout-related cognitive functioning has previously been investigated in only few studies, again all using clinical samples and wide age groups. Aims. Based on the information gained by conducting a comprehensive review, studies on cognitive impairment in depressive and anxiety disorders among young adults are rare. The present study examined cognitive functioning in young adults with a history of unipolar depressive or anxiety disorders in comparison to healthy peers, and associations of current burnout symptoms with cognitive functioning, in a population-based setting. The aim was also to determine whether cognitive deficits vary as a function of different disorder characteristics, such as severity, psychiatric comorbidity, age at onset, or the treatments received. Methods. Verbal and visual short-term memory, verbal long-term memory and learning, attention, psychomotor processing speed, verbal intelligence, and executive functioning were measured in a population-based sample of 21-35 year olds. Performance was compared firstly between participants with pure non-psychotic depression (n=68) and healthy peers (n=70), secondly between pure (n=69) and comorbid depression (n=57), and thirdly between participants with anxiety disorders (n=76) and healthy peers (n=71). The diagnostic procedure was based on the SCID interview. Fourthly, the associations of current burnout symptoms, measured with the Maslach Burnout Inventory General Survey, and neuropsychological test performance were investigated among working young adults (n=225). Results. Young adults with depressive or anxiety disorders, with or without psychiatric comorbidity, were not found to have major cognitive impairments when compared to healthy peers. Only mildly compromised verbal learning was found among depressed participants. Pure and comorbid depression groups did not differ in cognitive functioning, either. Among depressed participants, those who had received treatment showed more impaired verbal memory and executive functioning, and earlier onset corresponded with more impaired executive functioning. In anxiety disorders, psychotropic medication and low psychosocial functioning were associated with deficits in executive functioning, psychomotor processing speed, and visual short-term memory. Current burnout symptoms were associated with better performance in verbal working memory and verbal intelligence. However, lower examiner-rated social and occupational functioning was associated with problems in verbal attention, memory, and learning. Conclusions. Depression, anxiety disorders, or burnout symptoms may not be associated with major cognitive deficits among young adults derived from the general population. Even psychiatric comorbidity may not aggravate cognitive functioning in depressive or anxiety disorders among these young adults. However, treatment-seeking in depression was found to be associated with cognitive deficits, suggesting that these deficits relate to increased distress. Additionally, early-onset depression, found to be associated with executive dysfunction, may represent a more severe form of the disorder. In anxiety disorders, those with low symptom-related psychosocial functioning may have cognitive impairment. An association with self-reported burnout symptoms and cognitive deficits was not detected, but individuals with low social and occupational functioning may have impaired cognition.

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Distinct endogenous network events, generated independently of sensory input, are a general feature of various structures of the immature central nervous system. In the immature hippocampus, these type of events are seen as "giant depolarizing potentials" (GDPs) in intracellular recordings in vitro. GABA, the major inhibitory neurotransmitter of the adult brain, has a depolarizing action in immature neurons, and GDPs have been proposed to be driven by GABAergic transmission. Moreover, GDPs have been thought to reflect an early pattern that disappears during development in parallel with the maturation of hyperpolarizing GABAergic inhibition. However, the adult hippocampus in vivo also generates endogenous network events known as sharp (positive) waves (SPWs), which reflect synchronous discharges of CA3 pyramidal neurons and are thought to be involved in cognitive functions. In this thesis, mechanisms of GDP generation were studied with intra- and extracellular recordings in the neonatal rat hippocampus in vitro and in vivo. Immature CA3 pyramidal neurons were found to generate intrinsic bursts of spikes and to act as cellular pacemakers for GDP activity whereas depolarizing GABAergic signalling was found to have a temporally non-patterned facilitatory role in the generation of the network events. Furthermore, the data indicate that the intrinsic bursts of neonatal CA3 pyramidal neurons and, consequently, GDPs are driven by a persistent Na+ current and terminated by a slow Ca2+-dependent K+ current. Gramicidin-perforated patch recordings showed that the depolarizing driving force for GABAA receptor-mediated actions is provided by Cl- uptake via the Na-K-C1 cotransporter, NKCC1, in the immature CA3 pyramids. A specific blocker of NKCC1, bumetanide, inhibited SPWs and GDPs in the neonatal rat hippocampus in vivo and in vitro, respectively. Finally, pharmacological blockade of the GABA transporter-1 prolonged the decay of the large GDP-associated GABA transients but not of single postsynaptic GABAA receptor-mediated currents. As a whole the data in this thesis indicate that the mechanism of GDP generation, based on the interconnected network of bursting CA3 pyramidal neurons, is similar to that involved in adult SPW activity. Hence, GDPs do not reflect a network pattern that disappears during development but they are the in vitro counterpart of neonatal SPWs.

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Cardiovascular diseases, which presently are considered inflammatory diseases, affect millions of people worldwide. Chronic infections may contribute to the systemic inflammation suggested to increase the risk for cardiovascular diseases. Such chronic infections are periodontitis and Chlamydia pneumoniae infection. They are highly prevalent as approximately 10% of adult population and 30% of people over 50 years old are affected by severe periodontitis and 70-80% of elderly people are seropositive for C. pneumoniae. Our general aim was to investigate the role of infection and inflammation in atherosclerosis both in animal and human studies. We aimed to determine how the two pathogens alter the atherosclerosis-associated parameters, and how they affect the liver inflammation and lipid composition. Furthermore, we evaluated the association between matrix metalloproteinase-8 (MMP-8), a proteinase playing a major role in inflammation, and the future cardiovascular diseases (CVD) events in a population-based cohort. For the animal experiments, we used atherosclerosis-susceptible apolipoprotein E deficient (apoE-/-) mice. They were kept in germ free conditions and fed with a normal chow diet. The bacteria were administered either intravenously (A. actinomycetemcomitans) or intranasally (C. pneumoniae). Several factors were determined from serum as well as from aortic and hepatic tissues. We also determined how cholesterol efflux, a major event in the removal of excess cholesterol from the tissues, and endothelial function were affected by these pathogens. In the human study, serum MMP-8 and its tissue inhibitor (TIMP-1) concentrations were measured and their associations during the follow-up time of 10 years with CVD events were determined. An infection with A. actinomycetemcomitans increased concentrations of inflammatory mediators, MMP production, and cholesterol deposit in macrophages, decreased lipoprotein particle size, and induced liver inflammation. C. pneumoniae infection also elicited an inflammatory response and endothelial dysfunction, as well as induced liver inflammation, microvesicular appearance and altered fatty acid profile. In the population-based cohort, men with increased serum MMP-8 concentration together with subclinical atherosclerosis (carotid artery intima media thickness > 1mm) had a three-fold increased risk for CVD death during the follow-up. The results show that infections with A. actinomycetemcomitans and C. pneumoniae induce proatherogenic changes, as well as affect the liver. These data therefore support the concept that common infections have systemic effects and could be considered as cardiovascular risk factors. Furthermore, our data indicate that, as an independent predictor of fatal CVD event, serum MMP-8 could have a clinical significance in diagnosing cardiovascular diseases.

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The major aim of this thesis was to examine the origins and distribution of uniparental and autosomal genetic variation among the Finno-Ugric-speaking human populations living in Boreal and Arctic regions of North Eurasia. In more detail, I aimed to disentangle the underlying molecular and population genetic factors which have produced the patterns of uniparental and autosomal genetic diversity in these populations. Among Finno-Ugrics the genetic amalgamation and clinal distribution of West and East Eurasian gene pools were observed within uniparental markers. This admixture indicates that North Eurasia was colonized through Central Asia/ South Siberia by human groups already carrying both West and East Eurasian lineages. The complex combination of founder effects, gene flow and genetic drift underlying the genetic diversity of the Finno-Ugric- speaking populations were emphasized by low haplotype diversity within and among uniparental and biparental markers. A high prevalence of lactase persistence allele among the North Eurasian Finno- Ugric agriculturalist populations was also shown indicating a local adaptation to subsistence change with lactose rich diet. Moreover, the haplotype background of lactase persistence allele among the Finno- Ugric-speakers strongly suggested that the lactase persistence T-13910 mutation was introduced independently more than once to the North Eurasian gene pool. A significant difference in genetic diversity, haplotype structure and LD distribution within the cytochrome P450 CYP2C and CYP2D regions revealed the unique gene pool of the Finno-Ugric Saami created mainly by population genetic processes compared to other Europeans and sub-Saharan Mandenka population. From all studied populations the Saami showed also significantly the highest allele frequency of a CYP2C19 gene mutation causing variable drug reactions. The diversity patterns observed within CYP2C and CYP2D regions emphasize the strong effect of demographic history shaping genetic diversity and LD especially among such small and constant size populations as the Finno-Ugric-speaking Saami. Moreover, the increased LD in Saami due to genetic drift and/or admixture was shown to offer an advantage for further attempts to identify alleles associated to common complex pharmacogenetic traits.

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Objectives of this study were to determine secular trends of diabetes prevalence in China and develop simple risk assessment algorithms for screening individuals with high-risk for diabetes or with undiagnosed diabetes in Chinese and Indian adults. Two consecutive population based surveys in Chinese and a prospective study in Mauritian Indians were involved in this study. The Chinese surveys were conducted in randomly selected populations aged 20-74 years in 2001-2002 (n=14 592) and 35-74 years in 2006 (n=4416). A two-step screening strategy using fasting capillary plasma glucose (FCG) as first-line screening test followed by standard 2-hour 75g oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) was applied to 12 436 individuals in 2001, while OGTTs were administrated to all participants together with FCG in 2006 and to 2156 subjects in 2002. In Mauritius, two consecutive population based surveys were conducted in Mauritian Indians aged 20-65 years in 1987 and 1992; 3094 Indians (1141 men), who were not diagnosed as diabetes at baseline, were reexamined with OGTTs in 1992 and/or 1998. Diabetes and pre-diabetes was defined following 2006 World Health Organization/ International Diabetes Federation Criteria. Age-standardized, as well as age- and sex-specific, prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes in adult Chinese was significantly increased from 12.2% and 15.4% in 2001 to 16.0% and 21.2% in 2006, respectively. A simple Chinese diabetes risk score was developed based on the data of Chinese survey 2001-2002 and validated in the population of survey 2006. The risk scores based on β coefficients derived from the final Logistic regression model ranged from 3 – 32. When the score was applied to the population of survey 2006, the area under operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score for screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.70), which was lower than the AUC of FCG (0.76 [0.74-0.79]), but similar to that of HbA1c (0.68 [0.65-0.71]). At a cut-off point of 14, the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score in screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.84 (0.81-0.88) and 0.40 (0.38-0.41). In Mauritian Indian, body mass index (BMI), waist girth, family history of diabetes (FH), and glucose was confirmed to be independent risk predictors for developing diabetes. Predicted probabilities for developing diabetes derived from a simple Cox regression model fitted with sex, FH, BMI and waist girth ranged from 0.05 to 0.64 in men and 0.03 to 0.49 in women. To predict the onset of diabetes, the AUC of the predicted probabilities was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.56-0.68) in men and 0.64(0.59-0.69) in women. At a cut-off point of 0.12, the sensitivity and specificity was 0.72(0.71-0.74) and 0.47(0.45-0.49) in men; and 0.77(0.75-0.78) and 0.50(0.48-0.52) in women, respectively. In conclusion, there was a rapid increase in prevalence of diabetes in Chinese adults from 2001 to 2006. The simple risk assessment algorithms based on age, obesity and family history of diabetes showed a moderate discrimination of diabetes from non-diabetes, which may be used as first line screening tool for diabetes and pre-diabetes, and for health promotion purpose in Chinese and Indians.

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Pharmacogenetics deals with genetically determined variation in drug response. In this context, three phase I drug-metabolizing enzymes, CYP2D6, CYP2C9, and CYP2C19, have a central role, affecting the metabolism of about 20-30% of clinically used drugs. Since genes coding for these enzymes in human populations exhibit high genetic polymorphism, they are of major pharmacogenetic importance. The aims of this study were to develop new genotyping methods for CYP2D6, CYP2C9, and CYP2C19 that would cover the most important genetic variants altering the enzyme activity, and, for the first time, to describe the distribution of genetic variation at these loci on global and microgeographic scales. In addition, pharmacogenetics was applied to a postmortem forensic setting to elucidate the role of genetic variation in drug intoxications, focusing mainly on cases related to tricyclic antidepressants, which are commonly involved in fatal drug poisonings in Finland. Genetic variability data were obtained by genotyping new population samples by the methods developed based on PCR and multiplex single-nucleotide primer extension reaction, as well as by collecting data from the literature. Data consisted of 138, 129, and 146 population samples for CYP2D6, CYP2C9, and CYP2C19, respectively. In addition, over 200 postmortem forensic cases were examined with respect to drug and metabolite concentrations and genotypic variation at CYP2D6 and CYP2C19. The distribution of genetic variation within and among human populations was analyzed by descriptive statistics and variance analysis and by correlating the genetic and geographic distances using Mantel tests and spatial autocorrelation. The correlation between phenotypic and genotypic variation in drug metabolism observed in postmortem cases was also analyzed statistically. The genotyping methods developed proved to be informative, technically feasible, and cost-effective. Detailed molecular analysis of CYP2D6 genetic variation in a global survey of human populations revealed that the pattern of variation was similar to those of neutral genomic markers. Most of the CYP2D6 diversity was observed within populations, and the spatial pattern of variation was best described as clinal. On the other hand, genetic variants of CYP2D6, CYP2C9, and CYP2C19 associated with altered enzymatic activity could reach extremely high frequencies in certain geographic regions. Pharmacogenetic variation may also be significantly affected by population-specific demographic histories, as seen within the Finnish population. When pharmacogenetics was applied to a postmortem forensic setting, a correlation between amitriptyline metabolic ratios and genetic variation at CYP2D6 and CYP2C19 was observed in the sample material, even in the presence of confounding factors typical for these cases. In addition, a case of doxepin-related fatal poisoning was shown to be associated with a genetic defect at CYP2D6. Each of the genes studied showed a distinct variation pattern in human populations and high frequencies of altered activity variants, which may reflect the neutral evolution and/or selective pressures caused by dietary or environmental exposure. The results are relevant also from the clinical point of view since the genetic variation at CYP2D6, CYP2C9, and CYP2C19 already has a range of clinical applications, e.g. in cancer treatment and oral anticoagulation therapy. This study revealed that pharmacogenetics may also contribute valuable information to the medicolegal investigation of sudden, unexpected deaths.