Questions to Artificial Nature: A Philosophical Study of Interdisciplinary Models and their Functions in Scientific Practice

This thesis presents an interdisciplinary analysis of how models and simulations function in the production of scientific knowledge. The work is informed by three scholarly traditions: studies on models and simulations in philosophy of science, so-called micro-sociological laboratory studies within science and technology studies, and cultural-historical activity theory. Methodologically, I adopt a naturalist epistemology and combine philosophical analysis with a qualitative, empirical case study of infectious-disease modelling. This study has a dual perspective throughout the analysis: it specifies the modelling practices and examines the models as objects of research. The research questions addressed in this study are: 1) How are models constructed and what functions do they have in the production of scientific knowledge? 2) What is interdisciplinarity in model construction? 3) How do models become a general research tool and why is this process problematic? The core argument is that the mediating models as investigative instruments (cf. Morgan and Morrison 1999) take questions as a starting point, and hence their construction is intentionally guided. This argument applies the interrogative model of inquiry (e.g., Sintonen 2005; Hintikka 1981), which conceives of all knowledge acquisition as process of seeking answers to questions. The first question addresses simulation models as Artificial Nature, which is manipulated in order to answer questions that initiated the model building. This account develops further the "epistemology of simulation" (cf. Winsberg 2003) by showing the interrelatedness of researchers and their objects in the process of modelling. The second question clarifies why interdisciplinary research collaboration is demanding and difficult to maintain. The nature of the impediments to disciplinary interaction are examined by introducing the idea of object-oriented interdisciplinarity, which provides an analytical framework to study the changes in the degree of interdisciplinarity, the tools and research practices developed to support the collaboration, and the mode of collaboration in relation to the historically mutable object of research. As my interest is in the models as interdisciplinary objects, the third research problem seeks to answer my question of how we might characterise these objects, what is typical for them, and what kind of changes happen in the process of modelling. Here I examine the tension between specified, question-oriented models and more general models, and suggest that the specified models form a group of their own. I call these Tailor-made models, in opposition to the process of building a simulation platform that aims at generalisability and utility for health-policy. This tension also underlines the challenge of applying research results (or methods and tools) to discuss and solve problems in decision-making processes.

Xanthine oxidoreductase in essential hypertension and metabolic syndrome : Experimental studies on rodent models

Hypertension, obesity, dyslipidemia and dysglycemia constitute metabolic syndrome, a major public health concern, which is associated with cardiovascular mortality. High dietary salt (NaCl) is the most important dietary risk factor for elevated blood pressure. The kidney has a major role in salt-sensitive hypertension and is vulnerable to harmful effects of increased blood pressure. Elevated serum urate is a common finding in these disorders. While dysregulation of urate excretion is associated with cardiovascular diseases, present studies aimed to clarify the role of xanthine oxidoreductase (XOR), i.e. xanthine dehydrogenase (XDH) and its post-translational isoform xanthine oxidase (XO), in cardiovascular diseases. XOR yields urate from hypoxanthine and xanthine. Low oxygen levels upregulate XOR in addition to other factors. In present studies higher renal XOR activity was found in hypertension-prone rats than in the controls. Furthermore, NaCl intake increased renal XOR dose-dependently. To clarify whether XOR has any causal role in hypertension, rats were kept on NaCl diets for different periods of time, with or without a XOR inhibitor, allopurinol. While allopurinol did not alleviate hypertension, it prevented left ventricular and renal hypertrophy. Nitric oxide synthases (NOS) produce nitric oxide (NO), which mediates vasodilatation. A paucity of NO, produced by NOS inhibition, aggravated hypertension and induced renal XOR, whereas NO generating drug, alleviated salt-induced hypertension without changes in renal XOR. Zucker fa/fa rat is an animal model of metabolic syndrome. These rats developed substantial obesity and modest hypertension and showed increased hepatic and renal XOR activities. XOR was modified by diet and antihypertensive treatment. Cyclosporine (CsA) is a fungal peptide and one of the first-line immunosuppressive drugs used in the management of organ transplantation. Nephrotoxicity ensue high doses resulting in hypertension and limit CsA use. CsA increased renal XO substantially in salt-sensitive rats on a high NaCl diet, indicating a possible role for this reactive oxygen species generating isoform in CsA nephrotoxicity. Renal hypoxia, common to these rodent models of hypertension and obesity, is one of the plausible XOR inducing factors. Although XOR inhibition did not prevent hypertension, present experimental data indicate that XOR plays a role in the pathology of salt-induced cardiac and renal hypertrophy.

Cholesterol Disturbances in Inherited Neurodegenerative Diseases : Studies on Npc1, Ppt1 and Ctsd deficient mice

The central nervous system (CNS) is the most cholesterol-rich organ in the body. Cholesterol is essential to CNS functions such as synaptogenesis and formation of myelin. Significant differences exist in cholesterol metabolism between the CNS and the peripheral organs. However, the regulation of cholesterol metabolism in the CNS is poorly understood compared to our knowledge of the regulation of cholesterol homeostasis in organs reached by cholesterol-carrying lipoprotein particles in the circulation. Defects in CNS cholesterol homeostasis have been linked to a variety of neurodegenerative diseases, including common diseases with complex pathogenetic mechanisms such as Alzheimer s disease. In spite of intense effort, the mechanisms which link disturbed cholesterol homeostasis to these diseases remain elusive. We used three inherited recessive neurodegenerative disorders as models in the studies included in this thesis: Niemann-Pick type C (NPC), infantile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis and cathepsin D deficiency. Of these three, NPC has previously been linked to disturbed intracellular cholesterol metabolism. Elucidating the mechanisms with which disturbances of cholesterol homeostasis link to neurodegeneration in recessive inherited disorders with known genetic lesions should shed light on how cholesterol is handled in the healthy CNS and help to understand how these and more complex diseases develop. In the first study we analyzed the synthesis of sterols and the assembly and secretion of lipoprotein particles in Npc1 deficient primary astrocytes. We found that both wild type and Npc1 deficient astrocytes retain significant amounts of desmosterol and other cholesterol precursor sterols as membrane constituents. No difference was observed in the synthesis of sterols and the secretion of newly synthesized sterols between Npc1 wild type, heterozygote or knockout astrocytes. We found that the incorporation of newly synthesized sterols into secreted lipoprotein particles was not inhibited by Npc1 mutation, and the lipoprotein particles were similar to those excreted by wild type astrocytes in shape and size. The bulk of cholesterol was found to be secreted independently of secreted NPC2. These observations demonstrate the ability of Npc1 deficient astrocytes to handle de novo sterols, and highlight the unique sterol composition in the developing brain. Infantile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis is caused by the deficiency of a functional Ppt1 enzyme in the cells. In the second study, global gene expression studies of approximately 14000 mouse genes showed significant changes in the expression of 135 genes in Ppt1 deficient neurons compared to wild type. Several genes encoding for enzymes of the mevalonate pathway of cholesterol biosynthesis showed increased expression. As predicted by the expression data, sterol biosynthesis was found to be upregulated in the knockout neurons. These data link Ppt1 deficiency to disturbed cholesterol metabolism in CNS neurons. In the third study we investigated the effect of cathepsin D deficiency on the structure of myelin and lipid homeostasis in the brain. Our proteomics data, immunohistochemistry and western blotting data showed altered levels of the myelin protein components myelin basic protein, proteolipid protein and 2 , 3 -cyclic nucleotide 3 phosphodiesterase in the brains of cathepsin D deficient mice. Electron microscopy revealed altered myelin structure in cathepsin D deficient brains. Additionally, plasmalogen-derived alkenyl chains and 20- and 24-carbon saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids typical for glycosphingolipids were found to be significantly reduced, but polyunsaturated species were significantly increased in the knockout brains, pointing to a decrease in white matter. The levels of ApoE and ABCA1 proteins linked to cholesterol efflux in the CNS were found to be altered in the brains of cathepsin D deficient mice, along with an accumulation of cholesteryl esters and a decrease in triglycerols. Together these data demonstrate altered myelin architecture in cathepsin D deficient mice and link cathepsin D deficiency to aberrant cholesterol metabolism and trafficking. Basic research into rare monogenic diseases sheds light on the underlying biological processes which are perturbed in these conditions and contributes to our understanding of the physiological function of healthy cells. Eventually, understanding gained from the study of disease models may contribute towards establishing treatment for these disorders and further our understanding of the pathogenesis of other, more complex and common diseases.

Novel conditional mouse models for targeted kidney research : Emphasis on the analysis of the biological function of nephrin

Nephrin is a transmembrane protein belonging to the immunoglobulin superfamily and is expressed primarily in the podocytes, which are highly differentiated epithelial cells needed for primary urine formation in the kidney. Mutations leading to nephrin loss abrogate podocyte morphology, and result in massive protein loss into urine and consequent early death in humans carrying specific mutations in this gene. The disease phenotype is closely replicated in respective mouse models. The purpose of this thesis was to generate novel inducible mouse-lines, which allow targeted gene deletion in a time and tissue-specific manner. A proof of principle model for succesful gene therapy for this disease was generated, which allowed podocyte specific transgene replacement to rescue gene deficient mice from perinatal lethality. Furthermore, the phenotypic consequences of nephrin restoration in the kidney and nephrin deficiency in the testis, brain and pancreas in rescued mice were investigated. A novel podocyte-specific construct was achieved by using standard cloning techniques to provide an inducible tool for in vitro and in vivo gene targeting. Using modified constructs and microinjection procedures two novel transgenic mouse-lines were generated. First, a mouse-line with doxycycline inducible expression of Cre recombinase that allows podocyte-specific gene deletion was generated. Second, a mouse-line with doxycycline inducible expression of rat nephrin, which allows podocyte-specific nephrin over-expression was made. Furthermore, it was possible to rescue nephrin deficient mice from perinatal lethality by cross-breeding them with a mouse-line with inducible rat nephrin expression that restored the missing endogenous nephrin only in the kidney after doxycycline treatment. The rescued mice were smaller, infertile, showed genital malformations and developed distinct histological abnormalities in the kidney with an altered molecular composition of the podocytes. Histological changes were also found in the testis, cerebellum and pancreas. The expression of another molecule with limited tissue expression, densin, was localized to the plasma membranes of Sertoli cells in the testis by immunofluorescence staining. Densin may be an essential adherens junction protein between Sertoli cells and developing germ cells and these junctions share similar protein assembly with kidney podocytes. This single, binary conditional construct serves as a cost- and time-efficient tool to increase the understanding of podocyte-specific key proteins in health and disease. The results verified a tightly controlled inducible podocyte-specific transgene expression in vitro and in vivo as expected. These novel mouse-lines with doxycycline inducible Cre recombinase and with rat nephrin expression will be useful for conditional gene targeting of essential podocyte proteins and to study in detail their functions in the adult mice. This is important for future diagnostic and pharmacologic development platforms.

Mutation analysis of TGF-β signaling pathway genes among Finnish patients with primary pulmonary hypertension and hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia

Primary pulmonary hypertension (PPH), or according to the recent classification idiopathic pulmonary hypertension (IPAH), is a rare, progressive disease of pulmonary vasculature leading to pulmonary hypertension and right heart failure. Most of the patients are sporadic but in about 6% of cases the disease is familial (FPPH). In 2000 two different groups identified the gene predisposing to PPH. This gene, Bone morphogenetic protein receptor type 2 (BMPR2), encodes a subunit of transforming growth factor β (TGF-β) receptor complex. There is a genetic connection between PPH and hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia (HHT), a bleeding disorder characterized by local telangiectasias and sometimes with pulmonary hypertension. In HHT, mutations in ALK1 (activin like kinase type 1) and Endoglin, another members of the TGF-β signaling pathway are found. In this study we identified all of the Finnish PPH patients for the years 1986-1999 using the hospital discharge registries of Finnish university hospitals. During this period we found a total of 59 confirmed PPH patients: 55 sporadic and 4 familial representing 3 different families. In 1999 the prevalence of PPH was 5.8 per million and the annual incidence varied between 0.2-1.3 per million. Among 28 PPH patients studied, heterozygous BMPR2 mutations were found in 12% (3/26) of sporadic patients and in 33% of the PPH families (1/3). All the mutations found were different. Large deletions of BMPR2 were excluded by single-stranded chain polymomorphism analysis. As a candidate gene approach we also studied ALK1, Endoglin, Bone Morphogenetic Receptor Type IA (BMPR1A or ALK3), Mothers Against Decapentaplegic Homolog 4 (SMAD4) and Serotonine Transporter Gene (SLC6A4) using single-strand conformational polymorphism (SSCP) analysis and direct sequencing. Among patients and family members studied, we found two mutations in ALK1 in two unrelated samples. We also identified all the HHT patients treated at the Department of Otorhinolaryngology at Helsinki University Central Hospital between the years of 1990-2005 and 8 of the patients were studied for Endoglin and ALK1 mutations using direct sequencing. A total of seven mutations were found and all the mutations were different. The absence of a founder mutation in the Finnish population in both PPH and HHT was somewhat surprising. This suggests that the mutations of BMPR2, ALK1 and Endoglin are quite young and the older mutations have been lost due to repetitive genetic bottlenecks and/or negative selection. Also, other genes than BMPR2 may be involved in the pathogenesis of PPH. No founder mutations were found in PPH or HHT and thus no simple genetic test is available for diagnostics.

The DISC1 Pathway in the Genetic Etiology of Schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is a severe psychotic disorder affecting 0.5-1 % of the population. The disorder is characterized by hallucinations; delusions; disorganized behavior and speech; avolition; anhedonia; flattened affect and cognitive deficits. The etiology of the disorder is complex with evidence for multiple genes contributing to the onset of the disorder along with environmental factors. DISC1 is one of the most promising candidate genes for schizophrenia. It codes for a protein which takes part in numerous molecular interactions along several pathways. This network, termed as the DISC1 pathway, is evidently important for the development and maturation of the central nervous system from the embryo until young adulthood. Disruption at these pathways is thought to predispose schizophrenia. In the present study, we have studied the DISC1 pathway in the etiology of schizophrenia in the Finnish population. We have utilized large Finnish samples; the schizophrenia family sample where DISC1 was originally shown to associate with schizophrenia and the Northern Finland birth cohort 1966 (NFBC66). Several DISC1 binding partners displayed evidence for association in the family sample along with DISC1. Through a genome-wide linkage study, we found a significant linkage signal to a locus where a DISC1 binding partner NDE1 is located at the carriers of a certain DISC1 risk variant. In a follow-up study, genetic markers in NDE1 displayed significant evidence for association with schizophrenia. Further exploration of association between 11 genes of the DISC1 pathway and schizophrenia led to recognition of novel variants in NDEL1, PDE4B and PDE4D that significantly either increased or decreased the risk for schizophrenia. Further, we found evidence that DISC1 itself has a significant role in the human mental functioning even in the healthy population. Variants in DISC1 had a significant effect on anhedonia which is a trait present at everybody but is in its severe form one of the main symptoms of schizophrenia and correlates with the risk of developing the disorder. Further, utilizing genome-wide marker data, we recognized three genes; MIR620; CCDC141 and LCT; that are closely related to the DISC1 pathway but which effects on anhedonia were observable only at the individuals who carried these specific DISC1 variants. Our findings significantly add up to the previous evidence for the involvement of DISC1 and the DISC1 pathway in the etiology of schizophrenia and psychosis. Our results support the concept of a number of DISC1 pathway related genes contributing in the etiology of schizophrenia along with DISC1 and provide new candidates for the studies of schizophrenia. Our findings also significantly increase the importance of DISC1 itself as having a role in psychological functioning in the general population.

Oncolytic Adenoviruses for Gynecologic Cancer

Gene therapy is a promising novel approach for treating cancers resistant to or escaping currently available modalities. Treatment approaches are based on taking advantage of molecular differences between normal and tumor cells. Various strategies are currently in clinical development with adenoviruses as the most popular vehicle. Recent developments include improving targeting strategies for gene delivery to tumor cells with tumor specific promoters or infectivity enhancement. A rapidly developing field is as well replication competent agents, which allow improved tumor penetration and local amplification of the anti-tumor effect. Adenoviral cancer gene therapy approaches lack cross-resistance with other treatment options and therefore synergistic effects are possible. This study focused on development of adenoviral vectors suitable for treatment of various gynecologic cancer types, describing the development of the field from non-replicating adenoviral vectors to multiple-modified conditional replicating viruses. Transcriptional targeting of gynecologic cancer cells by the use of the promoter of vascular endothelial growth factor receptor type 1 (flt-1) was evaluated. Flt-1 is not expressed in the liver and thus an ideal promoter for transcriptional targeting of adenoviruses. Our studies implied that the flt-1 promoter is active in teratocarcinomas.and therefore a good candidate for development of oncolytic adenoviruses for treatment of this often problematic disease with then poor outcome. A tropism modified conditionally replicating adenovirus (CRAd), Ad5-Δ24RGD, was studied in gynecologic cancers. Ad5-Δ24RGD is an adenovirus selectively replication competent in cells defective in the p16/Rb pathway, including many or most tumor cells. The fiber of Ad5-Δ24RGD contains an integrin binding arginine-glycine-aspartic acid motif (RGD-4C), allowing coxackie-adenovirus receptor independent infection of cancer cells. This approach is attractive because expression levels of CAR are highly variable and often low on primary gynecological cancer cells. Oncolysis could be shown for a wide variety of ovarian and cervical cancer cell lines as well as primary ovarian cancer cell spheroids, a novel system developed for in vitro analysis of CRAds on primary tumor substrates. Biodistribution was evaluated and preclinical safety data was obtained by demonstrating lack of replication in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells. The efficicacy of Ad5-Δ24RGD was shown in different orthotopic murine models including a highly aggressive intraperitoneal model of disseminated ovarian cancer cells, where Ad5-Δ24RGD resulted in complete eradication of intraperitoneal disease in half of the mice. To further improve the selectivity and specificity of CRAds, triple-targeted oncolytic adenoviruses were cloned, featuring the cyclo-oxygenase-2 (cox-2) promoter, E1A transcomplementation and serotype chimerism. Those viruses were evaluated on ovarian cancer cells for specificity and oncolytic potency with regard to two different cox2 versions and three different variants of E1A (wild type, delta24 and delta2delta24). Ad5/3cox2Ld24 emerged as the best combination due to enhanced selectivity without potency lost in vitro or in an aggressive intraperitoneal orthotopic ovarian tumor model. In summary, the preclinical therapeutic efficacy of the CRAds tested in this study, taken together with promising biodistribution and safety data, suggest that these CRAds are interesting candidates for translation into clinical trials for gynecologic cancer.

Oncolytic adenoviruses for treatment of ovarian cancer

Virotherapy, the use of oncolytic properties of viruses for eradication of tumor cells, is an attractive strategy for treating cancers resistant to traditional modalities. Adenoviruses can be genetically modified to selectively replicate in and destroy tumor cells through exploitation of molecular differences between normal and cancer cells. The lytic life cycle of adenoviruses results in oncolysis of infected cells and spreading of virus progeny to surrounding cells. In this study, we evaluated different strategies for improving safety and efficacy of oncolytic virotherapy against human ovarian adenocarcinoma. We examined the antitumor efficacy of Ad5/3-Δ24, a serotype 3 receptor-targeted pRb-p16 pathway-selective oncolytic adenovirus, in combination with conventional chemotherapeutic agents. We observed synergistic activity in ovarian cancer cells when Ad5/3-Δ24 was given with either gemcitabine or epirubicin, common second-line treatment options for ovarian cancer. Our results also indicate that gemcitabine reduces the initial rate of Ad5/3-Δ24 replication without affecting the total amount of virus produced. In an orthotopic murine model of peritoneally disseminated ovarian cancer, combining Ad5/3-Δ24 with either gemcitabine or epirubicin resulted in greater therapeutic benefit than either agent alone. Another useful approach for increasing the efficacy of oncolytic agents is to arm viruses with therapeutic transgenes such as genes encoding prodrug-converting enzymes. We constructed Ad5/3-Δ24-TK-GFP, an oncolytic adenovirus encoding the thymidine kinase (TK) green fluorescent protein (GFP) fusion protein. This novel virus replicated efficiently on ovarian cancer cells, which correlated with increased GFP expression. Delivery of prodrug ganciclovir (GCV) immediately after infection abrogated viral replication, which might have utility as a safety switch mechanism. Oncolytic potency in vitro was enhanced by GCV in one cell line, and the interaction was not dependent on scheduling of the treatments. However, in murine models of metastatic ovarian cancer, administration of GCV did not add therapeutic benefit to this highly potent oncolytic agent. Detection of tumor progression and virus replication with bioluminescence and fluorescence imaging provided insight into the in vivo kinetics of oncolysis in living mice. For optimizing protocols for upcoming clinical trials, we utilized orthotopic murine models of ovarian cancer to analyze the effect of dose and scheduling of intraperitoneally delivered Ad5/3-Δ24. Weekly administration of Ad5/3-Δ24 did not significantly enhance antitumor efficacy over a single treatment. Our results also demonstrate that even a single intraperitoneal injection of only 100 viral particles significantly increased the survival of mice compared with untreated animals. Improved knowledge of adenovirus biology has resulted in creation of more effective oncolytic agents. However, with more potent therapy regimens an increase in unwanted side-effects is also possible. Therefore, inhibiting viral replication when necessary would be beneficial. We evaluated the antiviral activity of chlorpromazine and apigenin on adenovirus replication and associated toxicity in fresh human liver samples, normal cells, and ovarian cancer cells. Further, human xenografts in mice were utilized to evaluate antitumor efficacy, viral replication, and liver toxicity. Our data suggest that these agents can reduce replication of adenoviruses, which could provide a safety switch in case of replication-associated side-effects. In conclusion, we demonstrate that Ad5/3-Δ24 is a useful oncolytic agent for treatment of ovarian cancer either alone or in combination with conventional chemotherapeutic drugs. Insertion of genes encoding prodrug-converting enzymes into the genome of Ad5/3-Δ24 might not lead to enhanced antitumor efficacy with this highly potent oncolytic virus. As a safety feature, viral activity can be inhibited with pharmacological substances. Clinical trials are however needed to confirm if these preclinical results can be translated into efficacy in humans. Promising safety data seen here, and in previous publications suggest that clinical evaluation of the agent is feasible.

Animal model and molecular interactions of Cln5

Neuronal ceroid lipofuscinoses (NCLs) are a family of inherited pediatric neurodegenerative disorders, leading to retinal degeneration, death of selective neuronal populations and accumulation of autofluorscent ceroid-lipopigments. The clinical manifestations are generally similar in all forms. The Finnish variant late infantile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis (vLINCLFin) is a form of NCL, especially enriched in the Finnish population. The aim of this thesis was to analyse the brain pathology of vLINCLFin utilising the novel Cln5-/- mouse model. Gene expression profiling of the brains of already symptomatic Cln5-/- mice revealed that inflammation, neurodegeneration and defects in myelinization are the major characteristics of the later stages of the disease. Histological characterization of the brain pathology confirmed that the thalamocortical system is affected in Cln5-/- mice, similarly to the other NCL mouse models. However, whereas the brain pathology in all other analyzed NCL mice initiate in the thalamus and spread only months later to the cortex, we observed that the sequence of events is uniquely reversed in Cln5-/- mice; beginning in the cortex and spreading to the thalamus only months later. We could also show that even though neurodegeneration is inititated in the cortex, reactive gliosis and loss of myelin are evident in specific nuclei of the thalamus already in the 1 month old brain. To obtain a deeper insight into the disturbed metabolic pathways, we performed gene expression profiling of presymptomatic mouse brains. We validated these findings with immunohistological analyses, and could show that cytoskeleton and myelin were affected in Cln5-/- mice. Comparison of gene expression profiling results of Cln5-/- and Cln1-/- mice, further highlighted that these two NCL models share a common defective pathway, leading to disturbances in the neuronal growth cone and cytoskeleton. Encouraged by the evidence of this defected pathway, we analyzed the molecular interactions of NCL-proteins and observed that Cln5 and Cln1/Ppt1 proteins interact with each other. Furthermore, we demonstrated that Cln5 and Cln1/Ppt1 share an interaction partner, the F1-ATP synthase, potentially linking both vLINCLFIN and INCL diseases to disturbed lipid metabolism. In addition, Cln5 was shown to interact with other NCL proteins; Cln2, Cln3, Cln6 and Cln8, implicating a central role for Cln5 in the NCL pathophysiology. This study is the first to describe the brain pathology and gene expression changes in the Cln5-/- mouse. Together the findings presented in this thesis represent novel information of the disease processes and the molecular mechanisms behind vLINCLFin and have highlighted that vLINCLFin forms a very important model to analyze the pathophysiology of NCL diseases.

Econometric models of Finnish non-industrial private forest owners' timber supply and timber stock

This dissertation examines the short- and long-run impacts of timber prices and other factors affecting NIPF owners' timber harvesting and timber stocking decisions. The utility-based Faustmann model provides testable hypotheses of the exogenous variables retained in the timber supply analysis. The timber stock function, derived from a two-period biomass harvesting model, is estimated using a two-step GMM estimator based on balanced panel data from 1983 to 1991. Timber supply functions are estimated using a Tobit model adjusted for heteroscedasticity and nonnormality of errors based on panel data from 1994 to 1998. Results show that if specification analysis of the Tobit model is ignored, inconsistency and biasedness can have a marked effect on parameter estimates. The empirical results show that owner's age is the single most important factor determining timber stock; timber price is the single most important factor in harvesting decision. The results of the timber supply estimations can be interpreted using utility-based Faustmann model of a forest owner who values a growing timber in situ.