Simulations of dimensionally reduced effective theories of high temperature QCD

Quantum chromodynamics (QCD) is the theory describing interaction between quarks and gluons. At low temperatures, quarks are confined forming hadrons, e.g. protons and neutrons. However, at extremely high temperatures the hadrons break apart and the matter transforms into plasma of individual quarks and gluons. In this theses the quark gluon plasma (QGP) phase of QCD is studied using lattice techniques in the framework of dimensionally reduced effective theories EQCD and MQCD. Two quantities are in particular interest: the pressure (or grand potential) and the quark number susceptibility. At high temperatures the pressure admits a generalised coupling constant expansion, where some coefficients are non-perturbative. We determine the first such contribution of order g^6 by performing lattice simulations in MQCD. This requires high precision lattice calculations, which we perform with different number of colors N_c to obtain N_c-dependence on the coefficient. The quark number susceptibility is studied by performing lattice simulations in EQCD. We measure both flavor singlet (diagonal) and non-singlet (off-diagonal) quark number susceptibilities. The finite chemical potential results are optained using analytic continuation. The diagonal susceptibility approaches the perturbative result above 20T_c$, but below that temperature we observe significant deviations. The results agree well with 4d lattice data down to temperatures 2T_c.

Occurrence and properties of steryl ferulates and glycosides in wheat and rye

Cereal kernels are known to contain a number of minor components that possess beneficial health attributes. In this thesis rye and wheat were studied as sources of steryl ferulates and steryl glycosides and their behaviour in processing were evaluated. Further, enzymatic hydrolysis of these conjugates was studied, as well as the capacity of steryl ferulates to inhibit lipid oxidation at different temperatures. Steryl ferulates were shown to have a strong positive correlation with dietary fibre contents in milling fractions from the outer parts of the kernels obtained from a commercial scale mill. Highest contents of steryl ferulates were found in the bran in both cereals, with the content decreasing once moving towards the inner parts of the kernel. Variation in the contents of steryl ferulates was higher in wheat fractions than rye fractions. Steryl glycosides, on the other hand, had either negative or no correlation with dietary fibre, and the range of the steryl glycoside contents was much narrower than that of steryl ferulates in both cereals. There were significant differences in the sterol compositions of these steryl conjugates when compared with each other or with the total plant sterols in the corresponding fractions. Properties of steryl ferulates and steryl glycosides were evaluated after common processing methods and in enzymatic hydrolysis. Thermal and mechanical processing had only minor or no effects on the contents of steryl conjugates from rye and wheat bran. Enzymatic treatments on the other hand caused some changes, especially in the contents of glycosylated sterols. When steryl ferulates extracted from rye or wheat bran were subjected to enzymatic treatments by steryl esterase, significant differences in the rates of hydrolysis were observed between steryl ferulates from different sources with differing sterol compositions. Further, differences were also observed between enzymes from different sources. Steryl glycosides were shown to be hydrolysed by β-glucosidase (cellobiase) from A. niger, but less with β-glucosidases from other sources. Steryl ferulates showed good antioxidant activity at both moderate and high temperatures. In bulk and emulsion systems of methyl linoleate at 40°C steryl ferulates extracted from rye and wheat bran inhibited hydroperoxide formation much more effectively than synthetic steryl ferulates or those extracted from rice (γ-oryzanol), demonstrating that the sterol composition has an effect on the activity. At cooking (100°C) and frying temperatures (180°C) sitostanyl ferulate was shown to inhibit polymer formation significantly and, especially at 100°C, comparably to α-tocopherol. The rate of antioxidant degradation was slower for sitostanyl ferulate, showing higher heat stability than α-tocopherol. When evaluated as a mixture, no synergistic effect was observed between these two antioxidants. The data presented in this thesis provides information that may henceforth be applied when evaluating the intakes of steryl conjugates from cereal sources, as well as their possible influences as minor bioactive components. Wheat and rye both are good sources of steryl ferulates and steryl glycosides and, especially with steryl ferulates, what may be lost out to some other cereals on quantity is compensated with quality of the sterol composition.

Oxidative stability of phytosterols in food models and foods

An important safety aspect to be considered when foods are enriched with phytosterols and phytostanols is the oxidative stability of these lipid compounds, i.e. their resistance to oxidation and thus to the formation of oxidation products. This study concentrated on producing scientific data to support this safety evaluation process. In the absence of an official method for analyzing of phytosterol/stanol oxidation products, we first developed a new gas chromatographic - mass spectrometric (GC-MS) method. We then investigated factors affecting these compounds' oxidative stability in lipid-based food models in order to identify critical conditions under which significant oxidation reactions may occur. Finally, the oxidative stability of phytosterols and stanols in enriched foods during processing and storage was evaluated. Enriched foods covered a range of commercially available phytosterol/stanol ingredients, different heat treatments during food processing, and different multiphase food structures. The GC-MS method was a powerful tool for measuring the oxidative stability. Data obtained in food model studies revealed that the critical factors for the formation and distribution of the main secondary oxidation products were sterol structure, reaction temperature, reaction time, and lipid matrix composition. Under all conditions studied, phytostanols as saturated compounds were more stable than unsaturated phytosterols. In addition, esterification made phytosterols more reactive than free sterols at low temperatures, while at high temperatures the situation was the reverse. Generally, oxidation reactions were more significant at temperatures above 100°C. At lower temperatures, the significance of these reactions increased with increasing reaction time. The effect of lipid matrix composition was dependent on temperature; at temperatures above 140°C, phytosterols were more stable in an unsaturated lipid matrix, whereas below 140°C they were more stable in a saturated lipid matrix. At 140°C, phytosterols oxidized at the same rate in both matrices. Regardless of temperature, phytostanols oxidized more in an unsaturated lipid matrix. Generally, the distribution of oxidation products seemed to be associated with the phase of overall oxidation. 7-ketophytosterols accumulated when oxidation had not yet reached the dynamic state. Once this state was attained, the major products were 5,6-epoxyphytosterols and 7-hydroxyphytosterols. The changes observed in phytostanol oxidation products were not as informative since all stanol oxides quantified represented hydroxyl compounds. The formation of these secondary oxidation products did not account for all of the phytosterol/stanol losses observed during the heating experiments, indicating the presence of dimeric, oligomeric or other oxidation products, especially when free phytosterols and stanols were heated at high temperatures. Commercially available phytosterol/stanol ingredients were stable during such food processes as spray-drying and ultra high temperature (UHT)-type heating and subsequent long-term storage. Pan-frying, however, induced phytosterol oxidation and was classified as a rather deteriorative process. Overall, the findings indicated that although phytosterols and stanols are stable in normal food processing conditions, attention should be paid to their use in frying. Complex interactions between other food constituents also suggested that when new phytosterol-enriched foods are developed their oxidative stability must first be established. The results presented here will assist in choosing safe conditions for phytosterol/stanol enrichment.

Flight metabolic rate in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

Dispersal is a highly important life history trait. In fragmented landscapes the long-term persistence of populations depends on dispersal. Evolution of dispersal is affected by costs and benefits and these may differ between different landscapes. This results in differences in the strength and direction of natural selection on dispersal in fragmented landscapes. Dispersal has been shown to be a nonrandom process that is associated with traits such as flight ability in insects. This thesis examines genetic and physiological traits affecting dispersal in the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia). Flight metabolic rate is a repeatable trait representing flight ability. Unlike in many vertebrates, resting metabolic rate cannot be used as a surrogate of maximum metabolic rate as no strong correlation between the two was found in the Glanville fritillary. Resting and flight metabolic rate are affected by environmental variables, most notably temperature. However, only flight metabolic rate has a strong genetic component. Molecular variation in the much-studied candidate locus phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi), which encodes the glycolytic enzyme PGI, has an effect on carbohydrate metabolism in flight. This effect is temperature dependent: in low to moderate temperatures individuals with the heterozygous genotype at the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) AA111 have higher flight metabolic rate than the common homozygous genotype. At high temperatures the situation is reversed. This finding suggests that variation in enzyme properties is indeed translated to organismal performance. High-resolution data on individual female Glanville fritillaries moving freely in the field were recorded using harmonic radar. There was a strong positive correlation between flight metabolic rate and dispersal rate. Flight metabolic rate explained one third of the observed variation in the one-hour movement distance. A fine-scaled analysis of mobility showed that mobility peaked at intermediate ambient temperatures but the two common Pgi genotypes differed in their reaction norms to temperature. As with flight metabolic rate, heterozygotes at SNP AA111 were the most active genotype in low to moderate temperatures. The results show that molecular variation is associated with variation in dispersal rate through the link of flight physiology under the influence of environmental conditions. The evolutionary pressures for dispersal differ between males and females. The effect of flight metabolic rate on dispersal was examined in both sexes in field and laboratory conditions. The relationship between flight metabolic rate and dispersal rate in the field and flight duration in the laboratory were found to differ between the two sexes. In females the relationship was positive, but in males the longest distances and flight durations were recorded for individuals with low flight metabolic rate. These findings may reflect male investment in mate locating. Instead of dispersing, males with high flight metabolic rate may establish territories and follow a perching strategy when locating females and hence move less on the landscape level. Males with low metabolic rate may be forced to disperse due to low competitive success or may show adaptations to an alternative strategy: patrolling. In the light of life history trade-offs and the rate of living theory having high metabolic rate may carry a cost in the form of shortened lifespan. Experiments relating flight metabolic rate to longevity showed a clear correlation in the opposite direction: high flight metabolic rate was associated with long lifespan. This suggests that individuals with high metabolic rate do not pay an extra physiological cost for their high flight capacity, rather there are positive correlations between different measures of fitness. These results highlight the importance of condition.

Dimensional Reduction Near the Deconfinement Transition

When ordinary nuclear matter is heated to a high temperature of ~ 10^12 K, it undergoes a deconfinement transition to a new phase, strongly interacting quark-gluon plasma. While the color charged fundamental constituents of the nuclei, the quarks and gluons, are at low temperatures permanently confined inside color neutral hadrons, in the plasma the color degrees of freedom become dominant over nuclear, rather than merely nucleonic, volumes. Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) is the accepted theory of the strong interactions, and confines quarks and gluons inside hadrons. The theory was formulated in early seventies, but deriving first principles predictions from it still remains a challenge, and novel methods of studying it are needed. One such method is dimensional reduction, in which the high temperature dynamics of static observables of the full four-dimensional theory are described using a simpler three-dimensional effective theory, having only the static modes of the various fields as its degrees of freedom. A perturbatively constructed effective theory is known to provide a good description of the plasma at high temperatures, where asymptotic freedom makes the gauge coupling small. In addition to this, numerical lattice simulations have, however, shown that the perturbatively constructed theory gives a surprisingly good description of the plasma all the way down to temperatures a few times the transition temperature. Near the critical temperature, the effective theory, however, ceases to give a valid description of the physics, since it fails to respect the approximate center symmetry of the full theory. The symmetry plays a key role in the dynamics near the phase transition, and thus one expects that the regime of validity of the dimensionally reduced theories can be significantly extended towards the deconfinement transition by incorporating the center symmetry in them. In the introductory part of the thesis, the status of dimensionally reduced effective theories of high temperature QCD is reviewed, placing emphasis on the phase structure of the theories. In the first research paper included in the thesis, the non-perturbative input required in computing the g^6 term in the weak coupling expansion of the pressure of QCD is computed in the effective theory framework at an arbitrary number of colors. The two last papers on the other hand focus on the construction of the center-symmetric effective theories, and subsequently the first non-perturbative studies of these theories are presented. Non-perturbative lattice simulations of a center-symmetric effective theory for SU(2) Yang-Mills theory show --- in sharp contrast to the perturbative setup --- that the effective theory accommodates a phase transition in the correct universality class of the full theory. This transition is seen to take place at a value of the effective theory coupling constant that is consistent with the full theory coupling at the critical temperature.

Applications of dimensional reduction to electroweak and QCD matter

When heated to high temperatures, the behavior of matter changes dramatically. The standard model fields go through phase transitions, where the strongly interacting quarks and gluons are liberated from their confinement to hadrons, and the Higgs field condensate melts, restoring the electroweak symmetry. The theoretical framework for describing matter at these extreme conditions is thermal field theory, combining relativistic field theory and quantum statistical mechanics. For static observables the physics is simplified at very high temperatures, and an effective three-dimensional theory can be used instead of the full four-dimensional one via a method called dimensional reduction. In this thesis dimensional reduction is applied to two distinct problems, the pressure of electroweak theory and the screening masses of mesonic operators in quantum chromodynamics (QCD). The introductory part contains a brief review of finite-temperature field theory, dimensional reduction and the central results, while the details of the computations are contained in the original research papers. The electroweak pressure is shown to converge well to a value slightly below the ideal gas result, whereas the pressure of the full standard model is dominated by the QCD pressure with worse convergence properties. For the mesonic screening masses a small positive perturbative correction is found, and the interpretation of dimensional reduction on the fermionic sector is discussed.

Content of zinc, iron and their absorption inhibitors in Nicaraguan common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.).

Protein-energy malnutrition and mineral deficiencies are two of the three forms of nutritional deficiencies that affect most developing countries due to inadequate access to food and diets based on a sole crop. Common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is the staple crop of Nicaragua and it has the potential to improve the nutritional status of the poorest group of the nation. Its high content of both protein and nonhaem iron provides many nutrients, but inhibitors also may prevent absorption of iron and zinc by the human consumer. A proper production chain must be followed to ensure the best grain quality for the consumer. To achieve food security, both production and high nutritional content must be maintained. Four nationally important accessions of common bean, with different harvesting dates, were selected to be submitted to two treatments: to evaluate the impact of storage conditions on the end quality of the grain. The duration of the study was six months with sampling every six weeks, and the two treatments were controlled one stored at 40°C and 75 RH %, and the other was stored in in-situ conditions. Proximate and mineral composition was evaluated as well as tannin, phytate and bioavailability. Significant differences among different accessions were found, being the most significant in protein, Fe and Zn content, tannins and phytate. Protein values ranged from 21-23%. Iron content was 61-81 mg/kg but only 3-4% was bioavailable. Zinc content was 21-25 mg/kg and 10-12% was bioavailable. The concentration of phytate ranged from 8.6-9.6 mg/g while tannin values ranged within 37.7-43.8 mg/g. Storage at high temperatures was demonstrated to have an impact on certain nutritional compounds and proved detrimental to final grain quality. Soluble sugar content and tannin content decreased after six months in both storage conditions, IDF decreased in the in-situ and SDF in the stress. The iron content and bioavailability in INTA Biofortificado were not as outstanding as expected, so experiments should be conducted to compare its iron uptake and delivery with other cultivars.

Geochemistry and petrology of the ferropicrite dikes and associated rocks of Vestfjella, western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

This study provides insights into the composition and origin of ferropicrite dikes (FeOtot = 13 17 wt. %; MgO = 13 19 wt. %) and associated meimechite, picrite, picrobasalt, and basalt dikes found at Vestfjella, western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. The dikes crosscut Jurassic Karoo continental flood basalts (CFB) that were emplaced during the early stages of the breakup of the Gondwana supercontinent ~180 Ma ago. Selected samples (31 overall from at least eleven dikes) were analyzed for their mineral chemical, major element, trace element, and Sr, Nd, Pb, and Os isotopic compositions. The studied samples can be divided into two geochemically distinct types: (1) The depleted type (24 samples from at least nine dikes) is relatively depleted in the most incompatible elements and exhibits isotopic characteristics (e.g., initial εNd of +4.8 to +8.3 and initial 187Os/188Os of 0.1256 0.1277 at 180 Ma) similar to those of mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB); (2) The enriched type (7 samples from at least two dikes) exhibits relatively enriched incompatible element and isotopic characteristics (e.g., initial εNd of +1.8 to +3.6 and initial 187Os/188Os of 0.1401 0.1425 at 180 Ma) similar to those of oceanic island basalts. Both magma types have escaped significant contamination by the continental crust. The depleted type is related to the main phase of Karoo magmatism and originated as highly magnesian (MgO up to 25 wt. %) partial melts at high temperatures (mantle potential temperature >1600 °C) and pressures (~5 6 GPa) from a sublithospheric, water-bearing, depleted peridotite mantle source. The enriched type sampled pyroxene-bearing heterogeneities that can be traced down to either recycled oceanic crust or melt-metasomatized portions of the sublithospheric or lithospheric mantle. The source of the depleted type represents a sublithospheric end-member source for many Karoo lavas and has subsequently been sampled by the MORBs of the Indian Ocean. These observations, together with the purported high temperatures, indicate that the Karoo CFBs were formed in an extensive melting episode caused mainly by internal heating of the upper mantle beneath the Gondwana supercontinent. My research supports the view that ferropicritic melts can be generated in several ways: the relative Fe-enrichment of mantle partial melts is most readily achieved by (1) relatively low degree of partial melting, (2) high pressure of partial melting, and (3) melting of enriched source components (e.g., pyroxenite and metasomatized peridotite). Ferropicritic whole-rock compositions could also result from accumulation, secondary alteration, and fractional crystallization, however, and caution is required when addressing the parental magma composition.

Irradiation effects in graphene and related materials

Nanomaterials with a hexagonally ordered atomic structure, e.g., graphene, carbon and boron nitride nanotubes, and white graphene (a monolayer of hexagonal boron nitride) possess many impressive properties. For example, the mechanical stiffness and strength of these materials are unprecedented. Also, the extraordinary electronic properties of graphene and carbon nanotubes suggest that these materials may serve as building blocks of next generation electronics. However, the properties of pristine materials are not always what is needed in applications, but careful manipulation of their atomic structure, e.g., via particle irradiation can be used to tailor the properties. On the other hand, inadvertently introduced defects can deteriorate the useful properties of these materials in radiation hostile environments, such as outer space. In this thesis, defect production via energetic particle bombardment in the aforementioned materials is investigated. The effects of ion irradiation on multi-walled carbon and boron nitride nanotubes are studied experimentally by first conducting controlled irradiation treatments of the samples using an ion accelerator and subsequently characterizing the induced changes by transmission electron microscopy and Raman spectroscopy. The usefulness of the characterization methods is critically evaluated and a damage grading scale is proposed, based on transmission electron microscopy images. Theoretical predictions are made on defect production in graphene and white graphene under particle bombardment. A stochastic model based on first-principles molecular dynamics simulations is used together with electron irradiation experiments for understanding the formation of peculiar triangular defect structures in white graphene. An extensive set of classical molecular dynamics simulations is conducted, in order to study defect production under ion irradiation in graphene and white graphene. In the experimental studies the response of carbon and boron nitride multi-walled nanotubes to irradiation with a wide range of ion types, energies and fluences is explored. The stabilities of these structures under ion irradiation are investigated, as well as the issue of how the mechanism of energy transfer affects the irradiation-induced damage. An irradiation fluence of 5.5x10^15 ions/cm^2 with 40 keV Ar+ ions is established to be sufficient to amorphize a multi-walled nanotube. In the case of 350 keV He+ ion irradiation, where most of the energy transfer happens through inelastic collisions between the ion and the target electrons, an irradiation fluence of 1.4x10^17 ions/cm^2 heavily damages carbon nanotubes, whereas a larger irradiation fluence of 1.2x10^18 ions/cm^2 leaves a boron nitride nanotube in much better condition, indicating that carbon nanotubes might be more susceptible to damage via electronic excitations than their boron nitride counterparts. An elevated temperature was discovered to considerably reduce the accumulated damage created by energetic ions in both carbon and boron nitride nanotubes, attributed to enhanced defect mobility and efficient recombination at high temperatures. Additionally, cobalt nanorods encapsulated inside multi-walled carbon nanotubes were observed to transform into spherical nanoparticles after ion irradiation at an elevated temperature, which can be explained by the inverse Ostwald ripening effect. The simulation studies on ion irradiation of the hexagonal monolayers yielded quantitative estimates on types and abundances of defects produced within a large range of irradiation parameters. He, Ne, Ar, Kr, Xe, and Ga ions were considered in the simulations with kinetic energies ranging from 35 eV to 10 MeV, and the role of the angle of incidence of the ions was studied in detail. A stochastic model was developed for utilizing the large amount of data produced by the molecular dynamics simulations. It was discovered that a high degree of selectivity over the types and abundances of defects can be achieved by carefully selecting the irradiation parameters, which can be of great use when precise pattering of graphene or white graphene using focused ion beams is planned.

Effect of soil preparation of boreal spruce forest on air and soil temperature conditions in forest regeneration areas.

The effect of scarification, ploughing and cross-directional plouhing on temperature conditions in the soil and adjacent air layer have been studied during 11 consecutive growth periods by using an unprepared clear-cut area as a control site. The maximum and minimum temperatures were measured daily in the summer months, and other temperature observations were made at four-hour intervals by means of a Grant measuring instrument. The development of the seedling stand was also followed in order to determine its shading effect on the soil surface. Soil preparation decreased the daily temperature amplitude of the air at the height of 10 cm. The maximum temperatures on sunny days were lower in the tilts of the ploughed and in the humps of the cross-directional ploughed sites compared with the unprepared area. Correspondingly, the night temperatures were higher and so the soil preparation considerably reduced the risk of night frost. In the soil at the depth of 5 cm, soil preparation increased daytime temperatures and reduced night temperatures compared with unprepared area. The maximum increase in monthly mean temperatures was almost 5 °C, and the daily variation in the surface parts of the tilts and humps increased so that excessively high temperatures for the optimal growth of the root system were measured from time to time. The temperature also rose at the depths of 50 and 100 cm. Soil preparation also increased the cumulative temperature sum. The highest sums accumulated during the summer months were recorded at the depth of 5 cm in the humps of cross-directional ploughed area (1127 dd.) and in the tilts of the ploughed area (1106 dd.), while the corresponding figure in the unprepared soil was 718 dd. At the height of 10 cm the highest temperature sum was 1020 dd. in the hump, the corresponding figure in the unprepared area being 925 dd. The incidence of high temperature amplitudes and percentage of high temperatures at the depth of 5 cm decreased most rapidly in the humps of cross-directional ploughed area and in the ploughing tilts towards the end of the measurement period. The decrease was attributed principally to the compressing of tilts, the ground vegetation succession and the growth of seedlings. The mean summer temperature in the unprepared area was lower than in the prepared area and the difference did not diminish during the period studied. The increase in temperature brought about by soil preparation thus lasts at least more than 10 years.

Lumettoman maan routaolojen mallintaminen ja ennustettavuus muuttuvassa ilmastossa

Raportissa on arvioitu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta Suomen maaperän talviaikaiseen jäätymiseen lämpösummien perusteella. Laskelmat kuvaavat roudan paksuutta nimenomaisesti lumettomilla alueilla, esimerkiksi teillä, joilta satanut lumi aurataan pois. Luonnossa lämpöä eristävän lumipeitteen alla routaa on ohuemmin kuin tällaisilla lumettomilla alueilla. Toisaalta luonnollisessa ympäristössä paikalliset erot korostuvat johtuen mm. maalajeista ja kasvillisuudesta. Roudan paksuudet laskettiin ensin perusjakson 1971–2000 ilmasto-oloissa talviaikaisten säähavaintotietoihin pohjautuvien lämpötilojen perusteella. Sen jälkeen laskelmat toistettiin kolmelle tulevalle ajanjaksolle (2010–2039, 2040–2069 ja 2070–2099) kohottamalla lämpötiloja ilmastonmuutosmallien ennustamalla tavalla. Laskelman pohjana käytettiin 19 ilmastomallin A1B-skenaarioajojen keskimäärin simuloimaa lämpötilan muutosta. Tulosten herkkyyden arvioimiseksi joitakin laskelmia tehtiin myös tätä selvästi heikompaa ja voimakkaampaa lämpenemisarviota käyttäen. A1B-skenaarion mukaisen lämpötilan nousun toteutuessa nykyisiä mallituloksia vastaavasti routakerros ohenee sadan vuoden aikana Pohjois-Suomessa 30–40 %, suuressa osassa maan keski- ja eteläosissa 50–70 %. Jo lähivuosikymmeninä roudan ennustetaan ohentuvan 10–30 %, saaristossa enemmän. Mikäli lämpeneminen toteutuisi voimakkaimman tarkastellun vaihtoehdon mukaisesti, roudan syvyys pienenisi tätäkin enemmän. Roudan paksuuden vuosienvälistä vaihtelua ja sen muuttumista tulevaisuudessa pyrittiin myös arvioimaan. Leutoina talvina routa ohenee enemmän kuin normaaleina tai ankarina pakkastalvina. Päivittäistä sään vaihtelua simuloineen säägeneraattorin tuottamassa aineistoissa esiintyi kuitenkin liian vähän hyvin alhaisia ja hyvin korkeita lämpötiloja. Siksi näitten lämpötilatietojen pohjalta laskettu roudan paksuuskin ilmeisesti vaihtelee liian vähän vuodesta toiseen. Kelirikkotilanteita voi esiintyä myös kesken routakauden, jos useamman päivän suojasää ja samanaikainen runsas vesisade pääsevät sulattamaan maata. Tällaiset routakauden aikana sattuvat säätilat näyttävätkin yleistyvän lähivuosikymmeninä. Vuosisadan loppua kohti ne sen sijaan maan eteläosissa jälleen vähenevät, koska routakausi lyhenee oleellisesti. Tulevia vuosikymmeniä koskevien ilmastonmuutosennusteiden ohella routaa ja kelirikon esiintymistä on periaatteessa mahdollista ennustaa myös lähiaikojen sääennusteita hyödyntäen. Pitkät, viikkojen tai kuukausien mittaiset sääennusteet eivät tosin ole ainakaan vielä erityisen luotettavia, mutta myös lyhyemmistä ennusteista voisi olla hyötyä mm. tienpitoa suunniteltaessa.