Bayesian Inference for Retrospective Population Genetics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Genetics, the science of heredity and variation in living organisms, has a central role in medicine, in breeding crops and livestock, and in studying fundamental topics of biological sciences such as evolution and cell functioning. Currently the field of genetics is under a rapid development because of the recent advances in technologies by which molecular data can be obtained from living organisms. In order that most information from such data can be extracted, the analyses need to be carried out using statistical models that are tailored to take account of the particular genetic processes. In this thesis we formulate and analyze Bayesian models for genetic marker data of contemporary individuals. The major focus is on the modeling of the unobserved recent ancestry of the sampled individuals (say, for tens of generations or so), which is carried out by using explicit probabilistic reconstructions of the pedigree structures accompanied by the gene flows at the marker loci. For such a recent history, the recombination process is the major genetic force that shapes the genomes of the individuals, and it is included in the model by assuming that the recombination fractions between the adjacent markers are known. The posterior distribution of the unobserved history of the individuals is studied conditionally on the observed marker data by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The example analyses consider estimation of the population structure, relatedness structure (both at the level of whole genomes as well as at each marker separately), and haplotype configurations. For situations where the pedigree structure is partially known, an algorithm to create an initial state for the MCMC algorithm is given. Furthermore, the thesis includes an extension of the model for the recent genetic history to situations where also a quantitative phenotype has been measured from the contemporary individuals. In that case the goal is to identify positions on the genome that affect the observed phenotypic values. This task is carried out within the Bayesian framework, where the number and the relative effects of the quantitative trait loci are treated as random variables whose posterior distribution is studied conditionally on the observed genetic and phenotypic data. In addition, the thesis contains an extension of a widely-used haplotyping method, the PHASE algorithm, to settings where genetic material from several individuals has been pooled together, and the allele frequencies of each pool are determined in a single genotyping.

Markov random fields and spatial smoothing in improving of forest inventory estimates

Markov random fields (MRF) are popular in image processing applications to describe spatial dependencies between image units. Here, we take a look at the theory and the models of MRFs with an application to improve forest inventory estimates. Typically, autocorrelation between study units is a nuisance in statistical inference, but we take an advantage of the dependencies to smooth noisy measurements by borrowing information from the neighbouring units. We build a stochastic spatial model, which we estimate with a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The smooth values are validated against another data set increasing our confidence that the estimates are more accurate than the originals.

Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

Bayesian analysis of community dynamics

Elucidating the mechanisms responsible for the patterns of species abundance, diversity, and distribution within and across ecological systems is a fundamental research focus in ecology. Species abundance patterns are shaped in a convoluted way by interplays between inter-/intra-specific interactions, environmental forcing, demographic stochasticity, and dispersal. Comprehensive models and suitable inferential and computational tools for teasing out these different factors are quite limited, even though such tools are critically needed to guide the implementation of management and conservation strategies, the efficacy of which rests on a realistic evaluation of the underlying mechanisms. This is even more so in the prevailing context of concerns over climate change progress and its potential impacts on ecosystems. This thesis utilized the flexible hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework in combination with the computer intensive methods known as Markov chain Monte Carlo, to develop methodologies for identifying and evaluating the factors that control the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. These methodologies were used to analyze data from a range of taxa: macro-moths (Lepidoptera), fish, crustaceans, birds, and rodents. Environmental stochasticity emerged as the most important driver of community dynamics, followed by density dependent regulation; the influence of inter-specific interactions on community-level variances was broadly minor. This thesis contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the structure and dynamics of ecological communities, by showing directly that environmental fluctuations rather than inter-specific competition dominate the dynamics of several systems. This finding emphasizes the need to better understand how species are affected by the environment and acknowledge species differences in their responses to environmental heterogeneity, if we are to effectively model and predict their dynamics (e.g. for management and conservation purposes). The thesis also proposes a model-based approach to integrating the niche and neutral perspectives on community structure and dynamics, making it possible for the relative importance of each category of factors to be evaluated in light of field data.

Numerical approaches to new particle formation and growth in the atmosphere

Aerosols impact the planet and our daily lives through various effects, perhaps most notably those related to their climatic and health-related consequences. While there are several primary particle sources, secondary new particle formation from precursor vapors is also known to be a frequent, global phenomenon. Nevertheless, the formation mechanism of new particles, as well as the vapors participating in the process, remain a mystery. This thesis consists of studies on new particle formation specifically from the point of view of numerical modeling. A dependence of formation rate of 3 nm particles on the sulphuric acid concentration to the power of 1-2 has been observed. This suggests nucleation mechanism to be of first or second order with respect to the sulphuric acid concentration, in other words the mechanisms based on activation or kinetic collision of clusters. However, model studies have had difficulties in replicating the small exponents observed in nature. The work done in this thesis indicates that the exponents may be lowered by the participation of a co-condensing (and potentially nucleating) low-volatility organic vapor, or by increasing the assumed size of the critical clusters. On the other hand, the presented new and more accurate method for determining the exponent indicates high diurnal variability. Additionally, these studies included several semi-empirical nucleation rate parameterizations as well as a detailed investigation of the analysis used to determine the apparent particle formation rate. Due to their high proportion of the earth's surface area, oceans could potentially prove to be climatically significant sources of secondary particles. In the lack of marine observation data, new particle formation events in a coastal region were parameterized and studied. Since the formation mechanism is believed to be similar, the new parameterization was applied in a marine scenario. The work showed that marine CCN production is feasible in the presence of additional vapors contributing to particle growth. Finally, a new method to estimate concentrations of condensing organics was developed. The algorithm utilizes a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to determine the required combination of vapor concentrations by comparing a measured particle size distribution with one from an aerosol dynamics process model. The evaluation indicated excellent agreement against model data, and initial results with field data appear sound as well.

Mitochondrial Malfunction in Tumor Formation and Neuromuscular Diseases : Consequences of defects in fumarate hydratase and in the respiratory chain

The mitochondrion is an organelle of outmost importance, and the mitochondrial network performs an array of functions that go well beyond ATP synthesis. Defects in mitochondrial performance lead to diseases, often affecting nervous system and muscle. Although many of these mitochondrial diseases have been linked to defects in specific genes, the molecular mechanisms underlying the pathologies remain unclear. The work in this thesis aims to determine how defects in mitochondria are communicated within - and interpreted by - the cells, and how this contributes to disease phenotypes. Fumarate hydratase (FH) is an enzyme of the citrate cycle. Recessive defects in FH lead to infantile mitochondrial encephalopathies, while dominant mutations predispose to tumor formation. Defects in succinate dehydrogenase (SDH), the enzyme that precedes FH in the citrate cycle, have also been described. Mutations in SDH subunits SDHB, SDHC and SDHD are associated with tumor predisposition, while mutations in SDHA lead to a characteristic mitochondrial encephalopathy of childhood. Thus, the citrate cycle, via FH and SDH, seems to have essential roles in mitochondrial function, as well as in the regulation of processes such as cell proliferation, differentiation or death. Tumor predisposition is not a typical feature of mitochondrial energy deficiency diseases. However, defects in citrate cycle enzymes also affect mitochondrial energy metabolism. It is therefore necessary to distinguish what is specific for defects in citrate cycle, and thus possibly associated with the tumor phenotype, from the generic consequences of defects in mitochondrial aerobic metabolism. We used primary fibroblasts from patients with recessive FH defects to study the cellular consequences of FH-deficiency (FH-). Similarly to the tumors observed in FH- patients, these fibroblasts have very low FH activity. The use of primary cells has the advantage that they are diploid, in contrast with the aneuploid tumor cells, thereby enabling the study of the early consequences of FH- in diploid background, before tumorigenesis and aneuploidy. To distinguish the specific consequences of FH- from typical consequences of defects in mitochondrial aerobic metabolism, we used primary fibroblasts from patients with MELAS (mitochondrial encephalopathy with lactic acidosis and stroke-like episodes) and from patients with NARP (neuropathy, ataxia and retinitis pigmentosa). These diseases also affect mitochondrial aerobic metabolism but are not known to predispose to tumor formation. To study in vivo the systemic consequences of defects in mitochondrial aerobic metabolism, we used a transgenic mouse model of late-onset mitochondrial myopathy. The mouse contains a transgene with an in-frame duplication of a segment of Twinkle, the mitochondrial replicative helicase, whose defects underlie the human disease progressive external ophthalmoplegia. This mouse model replicates the phenotype in the patients, particularly neuronal degeneration, mitochondrial myopathy, and subtle decrease of respiratory chain activity associated with mtDNA deletions. Due to the accumulation of mtDNA deletions, the mouse was named deletor. We first studied the consequences of FH- and of respiratory chain defects for energy metabolism in primary fibroblasts. To further characterize the effects of FH- and respiratory chain malfunction in primary fibroblasts at transcriptional level, we used expression microarrays. In order to understand the in vivo consequences of respiratory chain defects in vivo, we also studied the transcriptional consequences of Twinkle defects in deletor mice skeletal muscle, cerebellum and hippocampus. Fumarate accumulated in the FH- homozygous cells, but not in the compound heterozygous lines. However, virtually all FH- lines lacked cytoplasmic FH. Induction of glycolysis was common to FH-, MELAS and NARP fibroblasts. In deletor muscle glycolysis seemed to be upregulated. This was in contrast with deletor cerebellum and hippocampus, where mitochondrial biogenesis was in progress. Despite sharing a glycolytic pattern in energy metabolism, FH- and respiratory chain defects led to opposite consequences in redox environment. FH- was associated with reduced redox environment, while MELAS and NARP displayed evidences of oxidative stress. The deletor cerebellum had transcriptional induction of antioxidant defenses, suggesting increased production of reactive oxygen species. Since the fibroblasts do not represent the tissues where the tumors appear in FH- patients, we compared the fibroblast array data with the data from FH- leiomyomas and normal myometrium. This allowed the determination of the pathways and networks affected by FH-deficiency in primary cells that are also relevant for myoma formation. A key pathway regulating smooth muscle differentiation, SRF (serum response factor)-FOS-JUNB, was found to be downregulated in FH- cells and in myomas. While in the deletor mouse many pathways were affected in a tissue-specific basis, like FGF21 induction in the deletor muscle, others were systemic, such as the downregulation of ALAS2-linked heme synthesis in all deletor tissues analyzed. However, interestingly, even a tissue-specific response of FGF21 excretion could elicit a global starvation response. The work presented in this thesis has contributed to a better understanding of mitochondrial stress signalling and of pathways interpreting and transducing it to human pathology.

Distribution and adhesion-promoting activity of alpha4 and alpha5 chain laminins in human endothelia and carcinomas

Basement membranes are specialized sheets of extracellular matrix found in contact with epithelia, endothelia, and certain isolated cells. They support tissue architecture and regulate cell behaviour. Laminins are among the main constituents of basement membranes. Due to differences between laminin isoforms, laminins confer structural and functional diversity to basement membranes. The first aim of this study was to gain insights into the potential functions of the then least characterized laminins, alpha4 chain laminins, by evaluating their distribution in human tissues. We thus created a monoclonal antibody specific for laminin alpha4 chain. By immunohistochemistry, alpha4 chain laminins were primarily localized to basement membranes of blood vessel endothelia, skeletal, heart, and smooth muscle cells, nerves, and adipocytes. In addition, alpha4 chain laminins were found in the region of certain epithelial basement membranes in the epidermis, salivary gland, pancreas, esophagus, stomach, intestine, and kidney. Because of the consistent presence of alpha4 chain laminins in endothelial basement membranes of blood vessels, we evaluated the potential roles of endothelial laminins in blood vessels, lymphatic vessels, and carcinomas. Human endothelial cells produced alpha4 and alpha5 chain laminins. In quantitative and morphological adhesion assays, human endothelial cells barely adhered to alpha4 chain-containing laminin-411. The weak interaction of endothelial cells with laminin-411 appeared to be mediated by alpha6beta1 integrin. The alpha5 chain-containing laminin-511 promoted endothelial cell adhesion better than laminin-411, but it did not promote the formation of cell-extracellular matrix adhesion complexes. The adhesion of endothelial cells to laminin-511 appeared to be mediated by Lutheran glycoprotein together with beta1 and alphavbeta3 integrins. The results suggest that these laminins may induce a migratory phenotype in endothelial cells. In lymphatic capillaries, endothelial basement membranes showed immunoreactivity for laminin alpha4, beta1, beta2, and gamma1 chains, type IV and XVIII collagens, and nidogen-1. Considering the assumed inability of alpha4 chain laminins to polymerize and to promote basement membrane assembly, the findings may in part explain the incomplete basement membrane formation in these vessels. Lymphatic capillaries of ovarian carcinomas showed immunoreactivity also for laminin alpha5 chain and its receptor Lutheran glycoprotein, emphasizing a difference between normal and ovarian carcinoma lymphatic capillaries. In renal cell carcinomas, immunoreactivity for laminin alpha4 chain was found in stroma and basement membranes of blood vessels. In most tumours, immunoreactivity for laminin alpha4 chain was also observed in the basement membrane region of tumour cell islets. Renal carcinoma cells produced alpha4 chain laminins. Laminin-411 did not promote adhesion of renal carcinoma cells, but inhibited their adhesion to fibronectin. Renal carcinoma cells migrated more on laminin-411 than on fibronectin. The results suggest that alpha4 chain laminins have a counteradhesive function, and may thus have a role in detachment and invasion of renal carcinoma cells.

Understanding the organic chain : The framework of the interaction between the actors in organic chains in relation to ecological modernisation of food production

The sustainability of food production has increasingly attracted the attention of consumers, farmers, food and retailing companies, and politicians. One manifestation of such attention is the growing interest in organic foods. Organic agriculture has the potential to enhance the ecological modernisation of food production by implementing the organic method as a preventative innovation that simultaneously produces environmental and economic benefits. However, in addition to the challenges to organic farming, the small market share of organic products in many countries today and Finland in particular risks undermining the achievement of such benefits. The problems identified as hindrances to the increased consumption of organic food are the poor availability, limited variety and high prices of organic products, the complicated buying decisions and the difficulties in delivering the intangible value of organic foods. Small volumes and sporadic markets, high costs, lack of market information, as well as poor supply reliability are obstacles to increasing the volume of organic production and processing. These problems shift the focus from a single actor to the entire supply chain and require solutions that involve more interaction among the actors within the organic chain. As an entity, the organic food chain has received very little scholarly attention. Researchers have mainly approached the organic chain from the perspective of a single actor, or they have described its structure rather than the interaction between the actors. Consequently, interaction among the primary actors in organic chains, i.e. farmers, manufacturers, retailers and consumers, has largely gone unexamined. The purpose of this study is to shed light on the interaction of the primary actors within a whole organic chain in relation to the ecological modernisation of food production. This information is organised into a conceptual framework to help illuminate this complex field. This thesis integrates the theories and concepts of three approaches: food system studies, supply chain management and ecological modernisation. Through a case study, a conceptual system framework will be developed and applied to a real life-situation. The thesis is supported by research published in four articles. All examine the same organic chains through case studies, but each approaches the problem from a different, complementary perspective. The findings indicated that regardless of the coherent values emphasising responsibility, the organic chains were loosely integrated to operate as a system. The focus was on product flow, leaving other aspects of value creation largely aside. Communication with consumers was rare, and none of the actors had taken a leading role in enhancing the market for organic products. Such a situation presents unsuitable conditions for ecological modernisation of food production through organic food and calls for contributions from stakeholders other than those directly involved in the product chain. The findings inspired a revision of the original conceptual framework. The revised framework, the three-layer framework , distinguishes the different layers of interaction. By gradually enlarging the chain orientation the different but interrelated layers become visible. A framework is thus provided for further research and for understanding practical implications of the performance of organic food chains. The revised framework provides both an ideal model for organic chains in relation to ecological modernisation and demonstrates a situation consistent with the empirical evidence.

Information, risk and trust in the food chain : Ex-ante valuation of consumer willingness to pay for beef quality information using the contingent valuation method

The safety of food has become an increasingly interesting issue to consumers and the media. It has also become a source of concern, as the amount of information on the risks related to food safety continues to expand. Today, risk and safety are permanent elements within the concept of food quality. Safety, in particular, is the attribute that consumers find very difficult to assess. The literature in this study consists of three main themes: traceability; consumer behaviour related to both quality and safety issues and perception of risk; and valuation methods. The empirical scope of the study was restricted to beef, because the beef labelling system enables reliable tracing of the origin of beef, as well as attributes related to safety, environmental friendliness and animal welfare. The purpose of this study was to examine what kind of information flows are required to ensure quality and safety in the food chain for beef, and who should produce that information. Studying the willingness to pay of consumers makes it possible to determine whether the consumers consider the quantity of information available on the safety and quality of beef sufficient. One of the main findings of this study was that the majority of Finnish consumers (73%) regard increased quality information as beneficial. These benefits were assessed using the contingent valuation method. The results showed that those who were willing to pay for increased information on the quality and safety of beef would accept an average price increase of 24% per kilogram. The results showed that certain risk factors impact consumer willingness to pay. If the respondents considered genetic modification of food or foodborne zoonotic diseases as harmful or extremely harmful risk factors in food, they were more likely to be willing to pay for quality information. The results produced by the models thus confirmed the premise that certain food-related risks affect willingness to pay for beef quality information. The results also showed that safety-related quality cues are significant to the consumers. In the first place, the consumers would like to receive information on the control of zoonotic diseases that are contagious to humans. Similarly, other process-control related information ranked high among the top responses. Information on any potential genetic modification was also considered important, even though genetic modification was not regarded as a high risk factor.

Antioxidative long chain alkylresorcinols. Synthesis and deuterium labelling of bioactive compounds present in whole grains

The first synthesis of long chain 5-n-alkylresorcinols (C15-C25) in whole grains and whole grain products by a novel modification of Wittig reaction is described. 5-n-Alkylresorcinols are phenolic lipids that have various effects on biological systems, such as antioxidant activity and interaction with biological membranes. These compounds are considered as biomarkers of whole grain intake, which is connected with reduced risk of cardiovascular diseases and certain cancers. Novel hapten derivatives of 5-n-alkylresorcinols, potential compounds for immunoanalytical techniques, are prepared by the same procedure utilizing microwave catalysed aqueous Wittig reaction as the key step. The synthesised analogues are required by various analytical, metabolism and bioactivity investigations. Four alternative strategies for producing deuterium polylabelled 5-n-alkylresorcinols are explored. Ring-labelled D3-alkylresorcinols were synthesized by acidic H/D exchange. Side chain -labelled D4-derivative was prepared by a total synthesis approach utilizing D2 deuterogenation of a D2-alkene derivative, and deuterogenation of alkynes was investigated in another total synthesis approach. An -D3-labelled alkylresorcinol is isotopically pure and completely stable under all relevant conditions encountered during analytical work. The labelling of another phenolic component of whole grains was explored. The preparation of D3-ferulic acid and related compounds by way of selective methylation of the precursors is described. The deuterated compounds are useful as standards in the quantification of these natural products in various substances, such as food and human fluids. The pure 5-n-alkylresorcinol analogues prepared were used in in vitro experiments on alkylresorcinol antioxidant activity and antigenotoxicity. The in vitro experiments show that alkylresorcinols act as antioxidants, especially when incorporated into biological systems, but possess lower activity in chemical tests (FRAP and DPPH assay). Whole grain alkylresorcinols are shown for the first time to have a protective effect against copper induced oxidation of LDL, and H2O2 or genotoxic faecal water induced damage on HT29 cells.

LFA-1 Integrin beta2 Chain Phosphorylation Regulates Protein Interactions and Mediates Signals in T Cells

Integrins are heterodimeric transmembrane adhesion receptors composed of alpha- and beta-subunits and they are vital for the function of multicellular organisms. Integrin-mediated adhesion is a complex process involving both affinity regulation and coupling to the actin cytoskeleton. Integrins also function as bidirectional signaling devices, regulating cell adhesion and migration after inside-out signaling, but also signal into the cell to regulate growth, differentiation and apoptosis after ligand binding. The LFA-1 integrin is exclusively expressed in leukocytes and is of fundamental importance for the function of the immune system. The LFA-1 integrins have short intracellular tails, which are devoid of catalytic activity. These cytoplasmic domains are important for integrin regulation and both the alpha and beta chain become phosphorylated. The alpha chain is constitutively phosphorylated, but the beta chain becomes phosphorylated on serine and functionally important threonine residues only after cell activation. The cytoplasmic tails of LFA-1 bind to many cytoskeletal and signaling proteins regulating numerous cell functions. However, the molecular mechanisms behind these interactions have been poorly understood. Phosphorylation of the cytoplasmic tails of the LFA-1 integrin could provide a mechanism to regulate integrin-mediated cytoskeletal interactions and take part in T cell signaling. In this study, the effects of phosphorylation of LFA-1 integrin cytoplasmic tails on different cellular functions were examined. Site-specific phosphorylation of both the alpha- and beta-chains of the LFA-1 was shown to have a role in the regulation of the LFA-1 integrin.Alpha-chain Ser1140 is needed for integrin conformational changes after chemokine- or integrin ligand-induced activation or after activation induced by active Rap1, whereas beta-chain binds to 14-3-3 proteins through the phosphorylated Thr758 and mediates cytoskeletal reorganization. Thr758 phosphorylation also acts as a molecular switch to inhibit filamin binding and allows 14-3-3 protein binding to integrin cytoplasmic domain, and it was also shown to lead to T cell adhesion, Rac-1/Cdc42 activation and expression of the T cell activation marker CD69, indicating a signaling function for Thr758 phosphorylation in T cells. Thus, phosphorylation of the cytoplasmic tails of LFA-1 plays an important role in different functions of the LFA-1 integrin in T cells. It is of vital importance to study the mechanisms and components of integrin regulation since leukocyte adhesion is involved in many functions of the immune system and defects in the regulation of LFA-1 contributes to auto-immune diseases and fundamental defects in the immune system.

Rigorous scaling law for the heat current in disordered harmonic chain

We study the energy current in a model of heat conduction, first considered in detail by Casher and Lebowitz. The model consists of a one-dimensional disordered harmonic chain of n i.i.d. random masses, connected to their nearest neighbors via identical springs, and coupled at the boundaries to Langevin heat baths, with respective temperatures T_1 and T_n. Let EJ_n be the steady-state energy current across the chain, averaged over the masses. We prove that EJ_n \sim (T_1 - T_n)n^{-3/2} in the limit n \to \infty, as has been conjectured by various authors over the time. The proof relies on a new explicit representation for the elements of the product of associated transfer matrices.