Environmental factors and uncertainty in fisheries management in the northern Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is a geologically young, large brackish water basin, and few of the species living there have fully adapted to its special conditions. Many of the species live on the edge of their distribution range in terms of one or more environmental variables such as salinity or temperature. Environmental fluctuations are know to cause fluctuations in populations abundance, and this effect is especially strong near the edges of the distribution range, where even small changes in an environmental variable can be critical to the success of a species. This thesis examines which environmental factors are the most important in relation to the success of various commercially exploited fish species in the northern Baltic Sea. It also examines the uncertainties related to fish stocks current and potential status as well as to their relationship with their environment. The aim is to quantify the uncertainties related to fisheries and environmental management, to find potential management strategies that can be used to reduce uncertainty in management results and to develop methodology related to uncertainty estimation in natural resources management. Bayesian statistical methods are utilized due to their ability to treat uncertainty explicitly in all parts of the statistical model. The results show that uncertainty about important parameters of even the most intensively studied fish species such as salmon (Salmo salar L.) and Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras L.) is large. On the other hand, management approaches that reduce uncertainty can be found. These include utilising information about ecological similarity of fish stocks and species, and using management variables that are directly related to stock parameters that can be measured easily and without extrapolations or assumptions.

Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

From the river to the open sea - a critical life phase of young Atlantic salmon migrating from the Simojoki river

Long-term monitoring data collected from wild smolts of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Simojoki river, northern Finland, were used in studying the relationships between the smolt size and age, smolt and postsmolt migration, environmental conditions and postsmolt survival. The onset of the smolt run was significantly dependent on the rising water temperature and decreasing discharge of the river in the spring. The mean length of smolts migrating early in the season was commonly higher and the mean age always older than among smolts migrating later. Many of the smolts migrating early in the season and almost all smolts migrating later had started their new growth in spring in the river before their sea entry. Among postsmolts, the time required for emigration from the estuary was dependent on the sea surface temperature (SST) off the river, being significantly shorter in years with warm than cold sea temperatures. After leaving the estuary, the postsmolts migrated southwards along the eastern coast of the northern Gulf of Bothnia, the geographical distribution of the tag recoveries coinciding with the warm thermal zone in spring in the coastal area. After arriving in the southern Gulf of Bothnia in late summer the postsmolts mostly migrated near the western coast, reaching the Baltic Main Basin in late autumn. Until the early 1990s there was only a weak positive association between smolt length and postsmolt survival. However, following a subsequent decrease in the mean smolt size, a significant positive dependence was observed between smolt size and the reported recapture rate of tagged salmon. The differences in recapture rates between smolts tagged during the first and second half of the annual migration season were insignificant, indicating that the seasonal variation in smolt size and age seem to be too small to affect survival. Among the climatic factors examined, the summer SST in the Gulf of Bothnia was most clearly related to the survival of the wild postsmolts. Postsmolt survival appeared to be highest in years when the SST in June in the Bothnian Bay varied between 9 and 12 ºC. In addition, the survival of wild postsmolts showed a significant positive dependence on the SST in July in the Bothnian Sea, but not on the abundance of the prey fish (0+ herring, Clupea harengus and sprat, Sprattus sprattus) in the Bothnian Sea and in the Baltic Main Basin. The results suggest, that if the incidence of extreme weather conditions were to increase due to climatic changes, it would probably reduce the postsmolt survival of wild salmon populations. For improving the performance of hatchery-reared smolts, it could be useful to examine opportunities to produce smolts that are in their smolt traits and abilities more similar to the wild smolts described in this thesis.

Coastal environmental gradients – Key to reproduction habitat mapping of freshwater fish in the Baltic Sea

Habitat requirements of fish are most strict during the early life stages, and the quality and quantity of reproduction habitats lays the basis for fish production. A considerable number of fish species in the northern Baltic Sea reproduce in the shallow coastal areas, which are also the most heavily exploited parts of the brackish marine area. However, the coastal fish reproduction habitats in the northern Baltic Sea are poorly known. The studies presented in this thesis focused on the influence of environmental conditions on the distribution of coastal reproduction habitats of freshwater fish. They were conducted in vegetated littoral zone along an exposure and salinity gradient extending from the innermost bays to the outer archipelago on the south-western and southern coasts of Finland, in the northern Baltic Sea. Special emphasis was placed on reed-covered Phragmites australis shores, which form a dominant vegetation type in several coastal archipelago areas. The main aims of this research were to (1) develop and test new survey and mapping methods, (2) investigate the environmental requirements that govern the reproduction of freshwater fish in the coastal area and (3) survey, map and model the distribution of the reproduction habitats of pike (Esox lucius) and roach (Rutilus rutilus). The white plate and scoop method with a standardized sampling time and effort was demonstrated to be a functional method for sampling the early life stages of fish in dense vegetation and shallow water. Reed-covered shores were shown to form especially important reproduction habitats for several freshwater fish species, such as pike, roach, other cyprinids and burbot, in the northern Baltic Sea. The reproduction habitats of pike were limited to sheltered reed- and moss-covered shores of the inner and middle archipelago, where suitable zooplankton prey were available and the influence of the open sea was low. The reproduction habitats of roach were even more limited and roach reproduction was successful only in the very sheltered reed-covered shores of the innermost bay areas, where salinity remained low (< 4‰) during the spawning season due to freshwater inflow. After identifying the critical factors restricting the reproduction of pike and roach, the spatial distribution of their reproduction habitats was successfully mapped and modelled along the environmental gradients using only a few environmental predictor variables. Reproduction habitat maps are a valuable tool promoting the sustainable use and management of exploited coastal areas and helping to maintain the sustainability of fish populations. However, the large environmental gradients and the extensiveness of the archipelago zone in the northern Baltic Sea demand an especially high spatial resolution of the coastal predictor variables. Therefore, the current lack of accurate large-scale, high-resolution spatial data gathered at exactly the right time is a considerable limitation for predictive modelling of shallow coastal waters.

Optimal multispecies fishery management in the Baltic Sea: A bioeconomic analysis

The aim of the thesis is to assess the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat by simulation over 50 years time period. We form a bioeconomic multispecies model for the species. We include species interactions into the model because especially cod and sprat stocks have significant effects on each other. We model the development of population dynamics, catches and profits of the fishery with current fishing mortalities, as well as with the optimal profit maximizing fishing mortalities. Thus, we see how the fishery would develop with current mortalities, and how the fishery should be developed in order to yield maximal profits. Especially cod stock has been quite low recently and by optimizing the fishing mortality it could get recovered. In addition, we assess what would happen to the fisheries of the species if more favourable environmental conditions for cod recruitment dominate in the Baltic Sea. The results may yield new information for the fisheries management. According to the results the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat are not at the most profitable level. The fishing mortalities of each species should be lower in order to maximize the profits. By fishing mortality optimizing the net present value would be almost three times higher in the simulation period. The lower fishing mortality of cod would result in a cod stock recovery. If the environmental conditions in the Baltic Sea improved, cod stock would recover even without a decrease in the fishing mortality. Then the increased cod stock would restrict herring and sprat stock remarkably, and harvesting of these species would not be as profitable anymore.

Archaeology of wings : Birds and people in the Baltic Sea region during the Stone Age

The prominent roles of birds, often mentioned in historical sources, are not well reflected in archaeological research. Absence or scarcity of bird bones in archaeological assemblages has been often seen as indication of a minor role of birds in the prehistoric economy or ideology, or explained by taphonomic loss. Few studies exist where birds form the basis for extensive archaeological interpretation. In this doctoral dissertation bird bone material from various Stone Age sites in the Baltic Sea region is investigated. The study period is approximately 7000-3400 BP, comprising mainly Neolithic cultures. The settlement material comes from Finland, Åland, Gotland, Saaremaa and Hiiumaa. Osteological materials are used for studying the economic and cultural importance of birds, fowling methods and principal fowling seasons. The bones were identified and earlier identifications partially checked with help of a reference material of modern skeletons. Fracture analysis was used in order to study the deposition history of bones at Ajvide settlement site. Birds in burials at two large cemeteries, Ajvide on Gotland and Zvejnieki in northern Latvia were investigated in order to study the roles of birds in burial practices. My study reveals that the economic importance of birds is at least seasonally often more prominent than usually thought, and varies greatly in different areas. Fowling has been most important in coastal areas, and especially during the breeding season. Waterbirds and grouse species were generally the most important groups in Finnish Stone Age economy. The identified species composition shows much resemblance to contemporary hunting with species such as the mallard and capercaillie commonly found. Burial materials and additional archaeological evidence from Gotland, Latvia and some other parts of northern Europe indicate that birds –e.g., jay, whooper swan, ducks – have been socially and ideologically important for the studied groups (indicating a place in the belief system, e.g. clan totemism). The burial finds indicate that some common ideas about waterbirds (perhaps as messengers or spirit helpers) might have existed in the northern European Stone Age.

Genetic diversity of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and European whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) in the Baltic Sea

We described the patterns and extent of microsatellite DNA variation in historical and present-day Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) stocks in the Baltic Sea and neighbouring areas, and in European whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) ecotypes, populations and run-timing types in Finland. Moreover, the amount and pattern of genetic diversity in historical salmon populations before human impact were described, and the proportion of diversity maintained in the present hatchery stocks evaluated. Salmon populations in the Baltic Sea were, on average, significantly less variable than eastern Atlantic populations, and the diversity of landlocked populations (Lakes Vänern, Saimaa, Onega and Ladoga) was in turn significantly lower than that of anadromous salmon populations in the Baltic Sea populations. Within the Baltic Sea, the anadromous populations of Atlantic salmon formed three clear groups, corresponding to the northern (Gulf of Bothnia), eastern (Gulf of Finland and eastern Baltic Main Basin) and southern (western Baltic Main Basin) regions. Based on microsatellite data, three salmon population groups in the Baltic Sea were considered potentially different colonization lineages. In short- and long-term breeding programmes of Atlantic salmon, the average observed rate of loss of alleles was 4.9% and 2.0% per generation and the average rate of loss of heterozygosity was 1.4% and 1% per generation, respectively. When comparing the genetic parameters of stocks before and after hatchery breeding of several successive generations (Rivers Iijoki and Oulujoki), statistically significant changes in allele frequencies were common, while large wild stock in the Teno River has remained temporally very stable over 56 years. Despite the observed losses of genetic diversity in broodstock breeding, a large proportion of the genetic resources of the extirpated stocks are still conserved in the broodstocks. Genetic differentiation among European whitefish ecotypes was generally low, thus giving support to the hypothesis of one native European whitefish species in Fennoscandia. Among the ecotypes, the northern, large sparsely rakered, bottom-dwelling whitefish was the most unique. The known genetic differences in quantitative traits have thus either developed independently of potential phylogenetic lineages, or the lineages have mixed and the quantitative traits of the ecotypes, like gill-raker number, have later changed according to environment and selection pressures. Overall, genetic distances between the anadromous whitefish populations along the Finnish coast, especially in the Bothnian Bay area, were small. Wild whitefish populations studied had slightly higher allelic diversity than hatchery-reared populations in corresponding rivers.

Chemical characteristics and behaviour of sediment phosphorus in the northeastern Baltic Sea.

Chemical characteristics and behaviour of sediment phosphorus in the northeastern Baltic Sea Eutrophication is a severe environmental problem in the Baltic Sea, especially in the Gulf of Finland and the Archipelago Sea, and it is enhanced by the release of phosphorus (P) from bottom sediments. The release of P from sediment reserves largely depends on the occurrence of P in different chemical forms and on the prevailing conditions, especially on the presence of oxygen. This study examines the chemical character and the vertical distribution of sediment P in two shallow estuaries, in shallow coastal sediments overlain by oxic near-bottom water, and in poorly oxygenated open sea sediments in the northeastern Baltic Sea. The objective was to evaluate how much of the sediment P is buried and removed from the nutrient cycle, and how much of it is in forms that can be released from the sediment to the overlaying water over time. Relationships between the distribution of the different P forms and the chemical and physical properties of the sediment, sediment pore water, and near-bottom water were determined in order to examine the behaviour of P at the sediment-water interface. The results show that the chemical character of sediment P varied in the different areas. Generally, in the outer estuaries and in the organic-rich coastal areas in the eastern Gulf of Finland, the sediments were higher in P than the sediments in the poorly oxygenated open sea areas in the central and western Gulf. The estuary sediments that received erosion-transported material were characterised by P bound to hydrated oxides of iron and aluminum. Iron-bound P is sensitive to changes in redox-conditions, but part of it was buried in the estuaries, possibly because of high sedimentation rates and incomplete reduction of iron. The open sea sediments in the central and western Gulf of Finland were dominated by apatite-P, which was also abundant in the areas strongly affected by sediment transportation. The burial of sediment P was most effective in the areas rich in apatite-P, which is a relatively stable form of P in sediment. In the eastern Gulf of Finland, organic P forms predominated in the organic-rich sediments. A part of these P forms will be buried, while part will be degraded in the long term, releasing soluble P to the pore water. In the poorly oxygenated areas, iron compounds at the sediment surface are not able to retain P released during mineralisation of organic matter or reduction-induced dissolution of iron-compounds in deep sediment layers. However, in the shallow coastal areas overlain by oxic near-bottom water, the organic-rich surface sediment can also become temporarily reduced and release P from the sediment to the overlaying water. The considerable variation in the chemical composition of sediment P reserves in the northeastern Baltic Sea proved that it is an important factor and should be taken into account when evaluating the release of sediment P and the role of P reserves in bottom sediments in eutrophication.

Genetic diversity and microcystin production by Anabaena in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

Syanobakteerit (sinilevät) ovat olleet Itämeressä koko nykymuotoisen Itämeren ajan, sillä paleolimnologiset todisteet niiden olemassaolosta Itämeren alueella ovat noin 7000 vuoden takaa. Syanobakteerien massaesiintymät eli kukinnat ovat kuitenkin sekä levinneet laajemmille alueille että tulleet voimakkaimmiksi viimeisten vuosikymmenien aikana. Tähän on osasyynä ihmisten aiheuttama kuormitus, joka rehevöittää Itämerta. Suomenlahti, jota tämä tutkimus käsittelee, on kärsinyt tästä rehevöitymiskehityksestä muita Itämeren altaita enemmän. Syanobakteerit muodostavat jokakesäisiä kukintoja Suomenlahdella - niin sen avomerialueilla kuin rannoillakin. Yleisimmät kukintoja muodostavat syanobakteerisuvut ovat Nodularia, Anabaena ja Aphanizomenon. Kukinnat aiheuttavat paitsi esteettistä haittaa myös terveydellisen riskitekijän. Niiden myrkyllisyys liitetään usein Nodularia-suvun tuottamaan nodulariini-maksamyrkkyyn. Itämeren Aphanizomenon-suvun on todettu olevan myrkytön. Vaikka Itämeren kukintoja aiheuttavista Nodularia- ja Aphanizomenon-syanobakteereista tiedetään varsin paljon, on molekyylimenetelmiin pohjautuva syanobakteeritutkimus ohittanut Itämeren Anabaena-suvun monelta osin. Tämän työn tarkoituksena oli syventää käsitystämme Itämeren Anabaena-syanobakteerista, sen mahdollisesta myrkyllisyydestä, geneettisestä monimuotoisuudesta ja fylogeneettisista sukulaisuussuhteista. Tässä työssä eristettiin 49 planktista Anabaena-kantaa, joista viisi tuottivat mikrokystiinejä. Tämä oli ensimmäinen yksiselitteinen todiste, että Itämeren Anabaena tuottaa maksamyrkyllisiä mikrokystiini-yhdisteitä. Jokainen eristetty myrkyllinen Anabaena-kanta tuotti useita mikrokystiini-variantteja. Lisäksi mikrokystiinejä löydettiin kukintanäytteistä, joissa oli myrkkyä syntetisoivia geenejä sisältäneitä Anabaena-syanobakteereita. Myrkkyjä löydettiin molempina tutkimusvuosina 2003 ja 2004. Myrkkyjen esiintyminen ei siten ollut vain yksittäinen ilmiö. Tässä työssä saimme viitteitä siitä, että maksamyrkyllinen Anabaena-syanobakteeri esiintyisi vähäsuolaisissa vesissä. Tämä riippuvuussuhde jää kuitenkin tulevien tutkimuksien selvitettäväksi. Tässä työssä havaittiin mikrokystiinisyntetaasi-geenien inaktivoituminen Itämeren Anabaena-kannassa ja kukintanäytteissä. Kuvasimme Anabaena-kannan mikrokystiinisyntetaasigeenien sisältä insertioita, jotka hyvin todennäköisesti inaktivoivat myrkyntuoton. Insertion sisältäneeltä kannalta löysimme kuitenkin kaikki mikrokystiinisyntetaasigeenit osoittaen, että geenien olemassaolo ei välttämättä varmista kannan mikrokystiinintuottoa. Mielenkiintoista oli se, että inaktivaation aiheuttavia insertioita löytyi kukintanäytteistä molemmilta tutkimusvuosilta. Vastaavia insertioita ei kuitenkaan löydetty makean veden Anabaena-kannoista tai järvinäytteistä. On yleistä, että syanobakteerikukinnoista löytyy usean syanobakteerisuvun edustajia. Myrkyllisiä sukuja tai lajeja ei voida kuitenkaan erottaa mikroskooppisesti myrkyttömistä. Käsillä olevassa tutkimuksessa kehitettiin molekyylimenetelmä, jolla on mahdollista määrittää kukinnan mahdollisesti maksamyrkylliset syanobakteerisuvut. Tätä menetelmää sovellettiin Itämeren kukintojen tutkimiseen. Itämeren pintavesistä ja ranta-alueiden pohjasta eristetyt Anabaena-kannat osoittautuivat geneettisesti monimuotoisiksi. Tämä Anabaena-syanobakteerien geneettinen monimuotoisuus vahvistettiin monistamalla geenejä suoraan kukintanäytteistä ilman kantojen eristystä. Makeiden vesien ja Itämeren Anabaena-kannat ovat geneettisesti hyvin samankaltaisia. Geneettisissä vertailuissa kävi kuitenkin ilmi, että pohjassa elävien Anabaena-kantojen geneettinen monimuotoisuus oli suurempaa kuin pintavesistä eristettyjen kantojen. Itämeren Anabaena-kantojen sekvenssit muodostivat omia ryhmiä sukupuun sisällä, jolloin on mahdollista, että nämä edustavat Itämeren omia Anabaena-ekotyyppejä. Tämä tutkimus oli ensimmäinen, jossa uusin molekyylimenetelmin systemaattisesti selvitettiin Itämeren Anabaena-syanobakteerin geneettistä populaatiorakennetta, fylogeniaa ja myrkyntuottoa. Tulevaisuudessa monitorointitutkimuksissa on otettava huomioon myös Itämeren Anabaena-syanobakteerin mahdollinen maksamyrkyntuotto – erityisesti vähäsuolaisemmilla rannikkovesillä.

Essays on the Bioeconomics of the Northern Baltic Fisheries

World marine fisheries suffer from economic and biological overfishing: too many vessels are harvesting too few fish stocks. Fisheries economics has explained the causes of overfishing and provided a theoretical background for management systems capable of solving the problem. Yet only a few examples of fisheries managed by the principles of the bioeconomic theory exist. With the aim of bridging the gap between the actual fish stock assessment models used to provide management advice and economic optimisation models, the thesis explores economically sound harvesting from national and international perspectives. Using data calibrated for the Baltic salmon and herring stocks, optimal harvesting policies are outlined using numerical methods. First, the thesis focuses on the socially optimal harvest of a single salmon stock by commercial and recreational fisheries. The results obtained using dynamic programming show that the optimal fishery configuration would be to close down three out of the five studied fisheries. The result is robust to stock size fluctuations. Compared to a base case situation, the optimal fleet structure would yield a slight decrease in the commercial catch, but a recreational catch that is nearly seven times higher. As a result, the expected economic net benefits from the fishery would increase nearly 60%, and the expected number of juvenile salmon (smolt) would increase by 30%. Second, the thesis explores the management of multiple salmon stocks in an international framework. Non-cooperative and cooperative game theory are used to demonstrate different "what if" scenarios. The results of the four player game suggest that, despite the commonly agreed fishing quota, the behaviour of the countries has been closer to non-cooperation than cooperation. Cooperation would more than double the net benefits from the fishery compared to a past fisheries policy. Side payments, however, are a prerequisite for a cooperative solution. Third, the thesis applies coalitional games in the partition function form to study whether the cooperative solution would be stable despite the potential presence of positive externalities. The results show that the cooperation of two out of four studied countries can be stable. Compared to a past fisheries policy, a stable coalition structure would provide substantial economic benefits. Nevertheless, the status of the salmon stocks would not improve significantly. Fourth, the thesis studies the prerequisites for and potential consequences of the implementation of an individual transferable quota (ITQ) system in the Finnish herring fishery. Simulation results suggest that ITQs would result in a decrease in the number of fishing vessels, but enables positive profits to overlap with a higher stock size. The empirical findings of the thesis affirm that the profitability of the studied fisheries could be improved. The evidence, however, indicates that incentives for free riding exist, and thus the most preferable outcome both in economic and biological terms is elusive.

Organic contaminants - occurrence and biological effects in the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea was studied with respect to selected organic contaminants and their ecotoxicology. The research consisted of analyses of total hydrocarbons, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, bile metabolites, hepatic ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). The contaminants were measured from various matrices, such as seawater, sediment and biota. The methods of analysis were evaluated and refined to comparability of the results. Polyaromatic hydrocarbons, originating from petroleum, are known to be among the most harmful substances to the marine environment. In Baltic subsurface water, seasonal dependence of the total hydrocarbon concentrations (THCs) was seen. Although concentrations of parent polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediment surface varied between 64 and 5161 ug kg-1 (dw), concentrations above 860 ug kg-1 (dw) were found in all the studied sub-basins of the Baltic Sea. Concentrations commonly considered to substantially increase the risk of liver disease and reproductive impairment in fish, as well as potential effects on growth (above 1000 ug kg-1 dw), were found in all the studied sub-basins of the Baltic Sea except Kattegat. Thus, considerable pollution in sediments was indicated. In bivalves, the sums of 12 PAHs varied on a wet weight basis between 44 and 298 ug kg-1 (ww). The predominant PAHs were high molecular weight and the PAH profiles of M. balthica differed from those found in sediment from the same area. The PAHs were both pyrolytic and petrogenic in origin, and a contribution from diesel engines was found, which indicates pollution of the Baltic Sea, most likely caused by the steadily increasing shipping in the area. The HPLC methods developed for hepatic EROD activity and bile metabolite measurements proved to be fast and suitable for the study of biological effects. A mixed function oxygenase enzyme system in Baltic Sea perch collected from the Gulf of Finland was induced slightly: EROD activity in perch varied from 0.30 14 pmol min-1 mg-1 protein. This range can be considered to be comparable to background values. Recent PAH exposure was also indicated by enhanced levels (213 and 1149 ug kg-1) of the bile metabolite 1-hydroxypyrene. No correlation was indicated between hepatic EROD activity and concentration of 1-hydroxypyrene in bile. PCBs and OCPs were observed in Baltic Sea sediment, bivalves and herring. Sums of seven CBs in surface sediment (0 5 cm) ranged from 0.04 to 6.2 ug kg-1 (dw) and sums of three DDTs from 0.13 to 5.0 ug kg-1 (dw). The highest levels of contaminants were found in the most eastern area of the Gulf of Finland where the highest total carbon and nitrogen content was found and where the lowest percentage proportion of p,p -DDT was found. The highest concentrations of CBs and the lowest concentration of DDTs were found in M. balthica from the Gulf of Finland. The highest levels of DDTs were found in M. balthica from the Hanö Bight, which is the outer part of the Bornholm Basin close to the Swedish mainland. In bivalves, the sums of seven CBs were 72 108 ug kg-1 (lw) and the sums of three DDTs were 66 139 ug kg-1 (lw). Results from temporal trend monitoring showed, that during the period 1985 2002, the concentrations of seven CBs in two-year-old female Baltic herring were clearly decreased, from 9 16 to 2 6 ug kg-1 (ww) in the northern Baltic Sea. At the same time, concentrations of three DDTs declined from 8 15 to 1 5 ug kg-1 (ww). The total concentration of the fat-soluble CBs and DDTs in Baltic herring muscle was shown to be age-dependent; the average concentrations in ten-year-old Baltic herring were three to five-fold higher than in two-year-old herring. In Baltic herring and bivalves, as well as in surface sediments, CB 138 and CB153 were predominant among CBs, whereas among DDTs p,p'-DDD predominated in sediment and p,p'-DDE in bivalves and Baltic herring muscle. Baltic Sea sediments are potential sources of contaminants that may become available for bioaccumulation. Based on ecotoxicological assessment criteria, cause for concern regarding CBs in sediments was indicated for the Gulf of Finland and the northern Baltic Proper, and for the northern Baltic Sea regarding CBs in Baltic herring more than two years old. Statistical classification of selected organic contaminants indicated high-level contamination for p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDD, p,p'-DDE, total DDTs, HCB, CB118 and CB153 in muscle of Baltic herring in age groups two to ten years; in contrast, concentrations of a-HCH and g-HCH were found to be moderate. The concentrations of DDTs and CBs in bivalves is sufficient to cause biological effects, and demonstrates that long-term biological effects are still possible in the case of DDTs in the Hanö Bight.

The effects of human induced disturbances on the sediment geochemistry of Baltic Sea embayments with a focus on eutrophication history

Historical sediment nutrient concentrations and heavy-metal distributions were studied in five embayments in the Gulf of Finland and an adjacent lake. The main objective of the study was to examine the response of these water bodies to temporal changes in human activities. Sediment cores were collected from the sites and dated using 210Pb and 137Cs. The cores were analyzed for total carbon (TC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), organic phosphorus (OP), inorganic phosphorus (IP), biogenic silica (BSi), loss on ignition (LOI), grain size, Cu, Zn, Al, Fe, Mn, K, Ca, Mg and Na. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to summarize the trends in the geochemical variables and to compare trends between the different sites. The links between the catchment land use and sediment geochemical data were studied using a multivariate technique of redundancy analysis (RDA). Human activities produce marked geochemical variations in coastal sediments. These variations and signals are often challenging to interpret due to various sedimentological and post-depositional factors affecting the sediment profiles. In general, the sites studied here show significant upcore increases in sedimentation rates, TP and TN concentrations. Also Cu, which is considered to be a good indicator of anthropogenic influence, showed clear increases from 1850 towards the top part of the cores. Based on the RDA-analysis, in the least disturbed embayments with high forest cover, the sediments are dominated by lithogenic indicators Fe, K, Al and Mg. In embayments close to urban settlement, the sediments have high Cu concentrations and a high sediment Fe/Mn ratio. This study suggests that sediment accumulation rates vary significantly from site to site and that the overall sedimentation can be linked to the geomorphology and basin bathymetry, which appear to be the major factors governing sedimentation rates; i.e. a high sediment accumulation rate is not characteristic either to urban or to rural sites. The geochemical trends are strongly site specific and depend on the local geochemical background, basin characteristics and anthropogenic metal and nutrient loading. Of the studied geochemical indicators, OP shows the least monotonic trends in all studied sites. When compared to other available data, OP seems to be the most reliable geochemical indicator describing the trophic development of the study sites, whereas Cu and Zn appear to be good indicators for anthropogenic influence. As sedimentation environments, estuarine and marine sites are more complex than lacustrine basins with multiple sources of sediment input and more energetic conditions in the former. The crucial differences between lacustrine and estuarine/coastal sedimentation environments are mostly related to Fe. P sedimentation is largely governed by Fe redox-reactions in estuarine environments. In freshwaters, presence of Fe is clearly linked to the sedimentation of other lithogenic metals, and therefore P sedimentation and preservation has a more direct linkage to organic matter sedimentation.

An approach to palaeoseismicity in the Olkiluoto (sea) area during the early Holocene

Olkiluoto Island is situated in the northern Baltic Sea, near the southwestern coast of Finland, and is the proposed location of a spent nuclear fuel repository. This study examined Holocene palaeoseismicity in the Olkiluoto area and in the surrounding sea areas by computer simulations together with acoustic-seismic, sedimentological and dating methods. The most abundant rock type on the island is migmatic mica gneiss, intruded by tonalites, granodiorites and granites. The surrounding Baltic Sea seabed consists of Palaeoproterozoic crystalline bedrock, which is to a great extent covered by younger Mesoproterozoic sedimentary rocks. The area contains several ancient deep-seated fracture zones that divide it into bedrock blocks. The response of bedrock at the Olkiluoto site was modelled considering four future ice-age scenarios. Each scenario produced shear displacements of fractures with different times of occurrence and varying recovery rates. Generally, the larger the maximum ice load, the larger were the permanent shear displacements. For a basic case, the maximum shear displacements were a few centimetres at the proposed nuclear waste repository level, at proximately 500 m b.s.l. High-resolution, low-frequency echo-sounding was used to examine the Holocene submarine sedimentary structures and possible direct and indirect indicators of palaeoseismic activity in the northern Baltic Sea. Echo-sounding profiles of Holocene submarine sediments revealed slides and slumps, normal faults, debris flows and turbidite-type structures. The profiles also showed pockmarks and other structures related to gas or groundwater seepages, which might be related to fracture zone activation. Evidence of postglacial reactivation in the study area was derived from the spatial occurrence of some of the structures, especial the faults and the seepages, in the vicinity of some old bedrock fracture zones. Palaeoseismic event(s) (a single or several events) in the Olkiluoto area were dated and the palaeoenvironment was characterized using palaeomagnetic, biostratigraphical and lithostratigraphical methods, enhancing the reliability of the chronology. Combined lithostratigraphy, biostratigraphy and palaeomagnetic stratigraphy revealed an age estimation of 10 650 to 10 200 cal. years BP for the palaeoseismic event(s). All Holocene sediment faults in the northern Baltic Sea occur at the same stratigraphical level, the age of which is estimated at 10 700 cal. years BP (9500 radiocarbon years BP). Their movement is suggested to have been triggered by palaeoseismic event(s) when the Late Weichselian ice sheet was retreating from the site and bedrock stresses were released along the bedrock fracture zones. Since no younger or repeated traces of seismic events were found, it corroborates the suggestion that the major seismic activity occurred within a short time during and after the last deglaciation. The origin of the gas/groundwater seepages remains unclear. Their reflections in the echo-sounding profiles imply that part of the gas is derived from the organic-bearing Litorina and modern gyttja clays. However, at least some of the gas is derived from the bedrock. Additional information could be gained by pore water analysis from the pockmarks. Information on postglacial fault activation and possible gas and/or fluid discharges under high hydraulic heads has relevance in evaluating the safety assessment of a planned spent nuclear fuel repository in the region.