Democracy, Participation, and Deliberation in China : The discussion about democratic centralism in the official Chinese press, 1978-1981

This study examines the Chinese press discussion about democratic centralism in 1978-1981 in newspapers, political journals and academic journals distributed nationwide. It is thus a study of intellectual trends during the Hua Guofeng period and of methods, strategies, and techniques of public political discussion of the time. In addition, this study presents democratic centralism as a comprehensive theory of democracy and evaluates this theory. It compares the Chinese theory of democratic centralism with Western traditions of democracy, not only with the standard liberal theory but also with traditions of participatory and deliberative democracy, in order to evaluate whether the Chinese theory of democratic centralism forms a legitimate theory of democracy. It shows that the Chinese theory comes close to participatory types of democracy and shares a conception of democracy as communication with the theory of deliberative democracy. Therefore, the Chinese experience provides some empirical evidence of the practicability of these traditions of democracy. Simultaneously, this study uses experiences of participatory democracies outside of China to explain some earlier findings about the Chinese practices. This dissertation also compares Chinese theory with some common Western theories and models of Chinese society as well as with Western understandings of Chinese political processes. It thus aims at opening more dialogue between Chinese and Western political theories and understandings about Chinese polity. This study belongs to scholarly traditions of the history of ideas, political philosophy, comparative politics, and China studies. The main finding of this study is that the Chinese theory of democratic centralism is essentially a theory about democracy, but whether its scrupulous practicing alone would be sufficient for making a country a democracy depends on which established definition of democracy one applies and on what kind of democratic deficits are seen as being acceptable within a truly democratic system. Nevertheless, since the Chinese theory of democratic centralism fits well with some established definitions of democracy and since democratic deficits are a reality in all actual democracies, the Chinese themselves are talking about democracy in terms acceptable to Western political philosophy as well.

The Far Eastern Question at the Washington Conference (1921-1922) with an outline of its implications for internal politics in China

This dissertation is a narrative account of the negotiations concerning the question of the Far East and the Shandong issue at the Washington Conference, leading to treaties, agreements and resolutions. In this dissertation, a certain stress is laid on the interaction between the Conference and the internal situation in China, particularly concerning the question of the implications of the Conference for Cabinet politics in Peking. Through the narrative account of the Conference, the general aim is an attempt to reassess the achievements of the Washington Conference. Too often the Washington Conference has been viewed negatively. The political aim behind the legal framework was to open the door to China as a sovereign State member of the international community whose territorial integrity was internationally recognized, despite its chaotic internal situation. It is undeniable that the Washington Conference opened a new chapter in modern Chinese history. The violations of the agreements concerning China that occurred in the 1930s should not lead to the belief that these agreements were of no value. Peace may not be lasting and evolves according to circumstances; agreements are transitory, and new situations need new arrangements. This dissertation tries to demonstrate that the agreements in themselves were not the cause of their failure, but the failure was due to the lack of determination on the part of the Signatories Powers to defend them.

Perinatal mortality and maternal health in rural China

Background and context Since the economic reforms of 1978, China has been acclaimed as a remarkable economy, achieving 9% annual growth per head for more than 25 years. However, China's health sector has not fared well. The population health gains slowed down and health disparities increased. In the field of health and health care, significant progress in maternal care has been achieved. However, there still remain important disparities between the urban and rural areas and among the rural areas in terms of economic development. The excess female infant deaths and the rapidly increasing sex ratio at birth in the last decade aroused serious concerns among policy makers and scholars. Decentralization of the government administration and health sector reform impacts maternal care. Many studies using census data have been conducted to explore the determinants of a high sex ratio at birth, but no agreement has been so far reached on the possible contributing factors. No study using family planning system data has been conducted to explore perinatal mortality and sex ratio at birth and only few studies have examined the impact of the decentralization of government and health sector reforms on the provision and organization of maternal care in rural China. Objectives The general objective of this study was to investigate the state of perinatal health and maternal care and their determinants in rural China under the historic context of major socioeconomic reforms and the one child family planning policy. The specific objectives of the study included: 1) to study pregnancy outcomes and perinatal health and their correlates in a rural Chinese county; 2) to examine the issue of sex ratio at birth and its determinants in a rural Chinese county; 3) to explore the patterns of provision, utilization, and content of maternal care in a rural Chinese county; 4) to investigate the changes in the use of maternal care in China from 1991 to 2003. Materials and Methods This study is based on a project for evaluating the prenatal care programme in Dingyuan county in 1999-2003, Anhui province, China and a nationwide household health survey to describe the changes in maternal care utilization. The approaches used included a retrospective cohort study, cross sectional interview surveys, informant interviews, observations and the use of statistical data. The data sources included the following: 1) A cohort of pregnant women followed from pregnancy up to 7 days after birth in 20 townships in the study county, collecting information on pregnancy outcomes using family planning records; 2) A questionnaire interview survey given to women who gave birth between 2001 and 2003; 3) Various statistical and informant surveys data collected from the study county; 4) Three national household health interview survey data sets (1993-2003) were utilized, and reanalyzed to described the changes in maternity care utilization. Relative risks (RR) and their confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for comparison between parity, approval status, infant sex and township groups. The chi-square test was used to analyse the disparity of use of maternal care between and within urban and rural areas and its trend across the years in China. Logistic regression was used to analyse the factors associated with hospital delivery in rural areas. Results There were 3697 pregnancies in the study cohort, resulting in 3092 live births in a total population of 299463 in the 20 study townships during 1999-2000. The average age at pregnancy in the cohort was 25.9 years. Of the women, 61% were childless, 38% already had one child and 0.3% had two children before the current pregnancy. About 90% of approved pregnancies ended in a live birth while 73% of the unapproved ones were aborted. The perinatal mortality rate was 69 per thousand births. If the 30 induced abortions in which the gestational age was more than 28 weeks had been counted as perinatal deaths, the perinatal mortality rate would have been as high as 78 per thousand. The perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the wealth of the township. Approximately two thirds of the perinatal deaths occurred in the early neonatal period. Both the still birth rate and the early neonatal death rate increased with parity. The risk of a stillbirth in a second pregnancy was almost four times that for a first pregnancy, while the risk of early neonatal deaths doubled. The early neonatal mortality rate was twice as high for female as for male infants. The sex difference in the early neonatal mortality rate was mainly attributable to mortality in second births. The male early neonatal mortality rate was not affected by parity, while the female early neonatal mortality rate increased dramatically with parity: it was about six times higher for second births than for first births. About 82% early neonatal deaths happened within 24 hours after birth, and during that time, girls were almost three times more likely to die than boys. The death rate of females on the day of birth increased much more sharply with parity than that of males. The total sex ratio at birth of 3697 registered pregnancies was 152 males to 100 females, with 118 and 287 in first and second pregnancies, respectively. Among unapproved pregnancies, there were almost 5 live-born boys for each girl. Most prenatal and delivery care was to be taken care of in township hospitals. At the village level, there were small private clinics. There was no limitation period for the provision of prenatal and postnatal care by private practitioners. They were not permitted to provide delivery care by the county health bureau, but as some 12% of all births occurred either at home or at private clinics; some village health workers might have been involved. The county level hospitals served as the referral centers for the township hospitals in the county. However, there was no formal regulation or guideline on how the referral system should work. Whether or not a woman was referred to a higher level hospital depended on the individual midwife's professional judgment and on the clients' compliance. The county health bureau had little power over township hospitals, because township hospitals had in the decentralization process become directly accountable to the township government. In the township and county hospitals only 10-20% of the recurrent costs were funded by local government (the township hospital was funded by the township government and the county hospital was funded by the county government) and the hospitals collected user fees to balance their budgets. Also the staff salaries depended on fee incomes by the hospital. The hospitals could define the user charges themselves. Prenatal care consultations were however free in most township hospitals. None of the midwives made postnatal home visits, because of low profit of these services. The three national household health survey data showed that the proportion of women receiving their first prenatal visit within 12 weeks increased greatly from the early to middle 1990s in all areas except for large cities. The increase was much larger in the rural areas, reducing the urban-rural difference from more than 4 times to about 1.4 times. The proportion of women that received antenatal care visits meeting the Ministry of Health s standard (at least 5 times) in the rural areas increased sharply from 12% in 1991-1993 to 36% in 2001-2003. In rural areas, the proportion increase was much faster in less developed areas than in developed areas. The hospital delivery rate increased slightly from 90% to 94% in urban areas while the proportion increased from 27% to 69% in rural areas. The fastest change was found to be in type 4 rural areas, where the utilization even quadrupled. The overall difference between rural and urban areas was substantially narrowed over the period. Multiple logistic regression analysis shows that time periods, residency in rural or urban areas, income levels, age group, education levels, delivery history, occupation, health insurance and distance from the nearest health care facilities were significantly associated with hospital delivery rates. Conclusions 1. Perinatal mortality in this study was much higher than that for urban areas as well as any reported rate from specific studies in rural areas of China. Previous studies in which calculations of infant mortality were not based on epidemiological surveys have been shown to underestimate the rates by more than 50%. 2. Routine statistics collected by the Chinese family planning system proved to be a reliable data source for studying perinatal health, including still births, neonatal deaths, sex ratio at birth and among newborns. National Household Health Survey data proved to be a useful and reliable data source for studying population health and health services. Prior to this research there were few studies in these areas available to international audiences. 3.Though perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the level of township economic development, the excess female early neonatal mortality rate contributed much more to high perinatal mortality rate than economic factors. This was likely a result of the role of the family planning policy and the traditional preferences for sons, which leads to lethal neglect of female newborns and high perinatal mortality. 4. The selective abortions of female foetuses were likely to contribute most to the high sex ratio at birth. The underreporting of female births seemed to have played a secondary role. The higher early neonatal mortality rate in second-born as compared to first-born children, particularly in females, may indicate that neglect or poorer care of female newborn infants also contributes to the high sex ratio at birth or among newborns. Existing family planning policy proved not to effectively control the steadily increased birth sex ratio. 5. The rural-urban gap in service utilization was on average significantly narrowed in terms of maternal healthcare in China from 1991 to 2003. This demonstrates that significant achievements in reducing inequities can be made through a combination of socio-economic development and targeted investments in improving health services, including infrastructure, staff capacities, and subsidies to reduce the costs of service utilization for the poorest. However, the huge gap which persisted among cities of different size and within different types of rural areas indicated the need for further efforts to support the poorest areas. 6. Hospital delivery care in the study county was better accepted by women because most of women think delivery care was very important while prenatal and postnatal care were not. Hospital delivery care was more systematically provided and promoted than prenatal and postnatal care by township hospital in the study area. The reliance of hospital staff income on user fees gave the hospitals an incentive to put more emphasis on revenue generating activities such as delivery care instead of prenatal and postnatal care, since delivery care generated much profits than prenatal and postnatal care . Recommendations 1. It is essential for the central government to re-assess and modify existing family planning policies. In order to keep national sex balance, the existing practice of one couple one child in urban areas and at-least-one-son a couple in rural areas should be gradually changed to a two-children-a-couple policy throughout the country. The government should establish a favourable social security policy for couples, especially for rural couples who have only daughters, with particular emphasis on their pension and medical care insurance, combined with an educational campaign for equal rights for boys and girls in society. 2. There is currently no routine vital-statistics registration system in rural China. Using the findings of this study, the central government could set up a routine vital-statistics registration system using family planning routine work records, which could be used by policy makers and researchers. 3. It is possible for the central and provincial government to invest more in the less developed and poor rural areas to increase the access of pregnant women in these areas to maternal care services. Central government together with local government should gradually provide free maternal care including prenatal and postnatal as well as delivery care to the women in poor and less developed rural areas. 4. Future research could be done to explore if county and the township level health care sector and the family planning system could be merged to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of maternal and child care. 5. Future research could be done to explore the relative contribution of maternal care, economic development and family planning policy on perinatal and child health using prospective cohort studies and community based randomized trials. Key words: perinatal health, perinatal mortality, stillbirth, neonatal death, sex selective abortion, sex ratio at birth, family planning, son preference, maternal care, prenatal care, postnatal care, equity, China

New combinations of the fern genus Tectaria (Tectariaceae) for the Flora of China.

For studies on the fern family Tectariaceae for the Flora of China, four species previously treated as Ctenitopsis need new combinations in Tectaria. The new combinations are proposed here and information on their types is provided.

Governance Matters : China's Developing Western Region with a Focus on Qinghai Province

This study is about governance in contemporary China. The focus is on Qinghai Province, one of the twelve provincial-level units included in the western region development strategy launched in 2000 by the government of China. Qinghai, the subject of the case study, is not a very well-known province. Hence, this study is significant, because it provides new knowledge about the province of Qinghai, its governance and diverse challenges, and deepens one s overall knowledge regarding China. Qinghai province is one of the slowest developing regions of China. My research problem is to analyze to what extent provincial development correlates with the quality of governance. The central concept of this research is good governance. This dissertation employs a grounded theory approach while the theoretical framework of this study is built on the Three World s approach of analyzing the three main themes, namely, the environment, economic development, and cultural diversity, and to support the empirical work. Philosophical issues in the humanities and contemporary theories of governance are brought in to provide deeper understanding of governance, and to understand to what extent and how characteristics of good governance (derived from the Western canon) are combined with Chinese tradition. A qualitative research method is chosen to provide a deeper understanding of the contemporary challenges of Qinghai (and China) and to provide some insight into the role and impact of governance on provincial development. It also focuses on the Tibetan ethnic group in order to develop as full an understanding as possible about the province. The challenges faced by Qinghai concern in particular its environment, economic development, and cultural diversity, all of which are closely interrelated. The findings demonstrate that Qinghai Province is not a powerful actor, because it has weak communications with the central government and weak collaboration with its stakeholders and civil society. How Qinghai s provincial government conducts provincial development remains a key question in terms of shaping the province s future. The question is how is Qinghai s government best able to govern in a way that is beneficial for the people. This study demonstrates that this is a significant question that challenges governance everywhere, and particularly in China given the absence of democracy. This study provides the ingredients for reflection as to how provincial government can be motivated to choose to govern in a sustainable way, instead of leaning on growth factors with too little consideration about the impact on the environment and the people.

The Saintly Madman : A Study of the Scholarly Reception History of Buile Shuibhne

This study examines the scholarly reception history of an early Irish text, Buile Shuibhne (The Frenzy of Suibhne), by focusing on the various theoretical and methodological presuppositions which have determined the scholars’ understanding of the text’s religious allegorical significance in the course of the 20th century. The reception-oriented inquiry takes the intersubjective aspect of literary interpretation as the basis for accentuating the importance of communally shared presumptions and reading strategies in the explication of interpretive variety. The materials of the study have been divided into four frameworks of interpretation: historical, pre-Christian, Christian and anthropological. This heuristic division does not denote mutually exclusive paradigms, but rather refers to perceived similarities within each group regarding the questions posed, and the evidence adduced, in textual analysis. The historical framework concentrates on the issues of the origins of the tale and the possible historicity of its main protagonist. The pre-Christian framework covers the theories of the shamanic, Indo-European and Celtic elements in the text, whereas the Christian framework includes readings emphasising the biblical, monastic and ascetic aspects of the tale. The anthropological framework in turn focuses on the parallels drawn between the narrative and the universal structure of the rites of passage. In addition to the examination of these four frameworks, the study also links the question of methodology with wider issues of authorship and textual integrity, and critically reconsiders the manner in which J.G. O'Keeffe's 1913 edition of the text has been reified in previous scholarship as a representation of a 12th century authorial original. The overall objective of the present case-study is to relate theoretical conceptions of literary theory, comparative religion and historiography to the study of early Irish narrative material by considering the communal and institutional dimension of meaning-making, and the implications of comparative methodology for historical research. In this aim, the prevailing methodological presuppositions informing the scholarly discourse on Buile Shuibhne are set against the wider context of Celtic Studies scholarship, in order to draw attention to the need to critically reflect upon the operations of knowledge production in future research.

Meillä ei ole ikuisia ystäviä eikä ikuisia vihollisia. Ikuisia ovat meidän omat etumme. : Suomen suhteet Kiinan kansantasavaltaan 1949 - 1989

"We have neither Eternal Friends nor Eternal Enemies. We have only Eternal Interests .Finland's Relations with China 1949-1989 The study focuses on the relations between Finland and the People s Republic of China from 1949-1989 and examines how a small country became embroiled in international politics, and how, at the same time, international politics affected Finnish-Chinese relations and Finland s China policy formulation. The study can be divided into three sections: relations during the early years, 1949-1960, before the Chinese and Soviet rift became public; the relations during the passive period during the 1960s and 1970s; and the impact of China s Open Door policy on Finland s China policy from 1978-1989. The diplomatically challenging events around Tiananmen Square and the reactions which followed in Finland bring the study to a close. Finland was among the first Western countries to recognise the People s Republic and to establish diplomatic relations with her, thereby giving Finland an excellent position from which to further develop good relations. Finland was also the first Western country to sign a trade agreement with China. These two factors meant that Finland was able to enjoy a special status with China during the 1950s. The special status was further strengthened by the systematic support of the government of Finland for China's UN membership. The solid reputation earned in the 1950s had to carry Finland all the way through to the 1980s. For the two decades in between, during the passive policy period of the 1960s and 1970s, relations between Finland and the Soviet Union also determined the state of foreign relations with China. Interestingly, however, it appeared that President Urho Kekkonen was encouraged by Ambassador Joel Toivola to envisage a more proactive policy towards China, but the Cultural Revolution cut short any such plan for nearly twenty years. Because of the Soviet Union, Finland held on to her passive China policy, even though no such message was ever received from the Soviet Union. In fact, closer relationships between Finland and China were encouraged through diplomatic channels. It was not until the presidency of Mauno Koivisto that the first high-level ministerial visit was made to China when, in 1984, Foreign Minister Paavo Väyrynen visited the People s Republic. Finnish-Chinese relations were lifted to a new level. Foreign Minister Väyrynen, however, was forced to remove the prejudices of the Chinese. In 1985, when the Speaker of the Finnish Parliament, Erkki Pystynen visited China he also discovered that Finland s passive China policy had caused misunderstandings amongst the Chinese politicians. The number of exchanges escalated in the wake of the ground-breaking visit by Foreign Minister Väyrynen: Prime Minister Kalevi Sorsa visited China in 1986 and President Koivisto did so in 1988. President Koivisto stuck to practical, China-friendly policies: his correspondence with Li Peng, the attitude taken by the Finnish government after the Tiananmen Square events and the subsequent choices made by his administration all pointed to a new era in relations with China.

Visions of Past Glory: Nationalism and the Construction of Early Finnish History

The study is an examination of how the distant national past has been conceived and constructed for Finland from the mid-sixteenth century to the Second World War. The author argues that the perception and need of a national 'Golden Age' has undergone several phases during this period, yet the perceived Greatness of the Ancient Finns has been of great importance for the growth and development of the fundamental concepts of Finnish nationalism. It is a question reaching deeper than simply discussing the Kalevala or the Karelianism of the 1890s. Despite early occurrences of most of the topics the image-makers could utilize for the construction of an Ancient Greatness, a truly national proto-history only became a necessity after 1809, when a new conceptual 'Finnishness' was both conceived and brought forth in reality. In this process of nation-building, ethnic myths of origin and descent provided the core of the nationalist cause - the defence of a primordial national character - and within a few decades the antiquarian issue became a standard element of the nationalist public enlightenment. The emerging, archaeologically substantiated, nationhood was more than a scholarly construction: it was a 'politically correct' form of ethnic self-imaging, continuously adapting its message to contemporary society and modern progress. Prehistoric and medieval Finnishness became even more relevant for the intellectual defence of the nation during the period of Russian administrative pressure 1890-1905. With independence the origins of Finnishness were militarized even further, although the 'hot' phase of antiquarian nationalism ended, as many considered the Finnish state reestablished after centuries of 'dependency'. Nevertheless, the distant past of tribal Finnishness and the conceived Golden Age of the Kalevala remained obligating. The decline of public archaeology is quite evident after 1918, even though the national message of the antiquarian pursuits remained present in the history culture of the public. The myths, symbols, images, and constructs of ancient Finnishness had already become embedded in society by the turn of the century, like the patalakki cap, which remains a symbol of Finnishness to this day. The method of approach is one of combining a broad spectrum of previously neglected primary sources, all related to history culture and the subtle banalization of the distant past: school books, postcards, illustrations, festive costumes, drama, satirical magazines, novels, jewellery, and calendars. Tracing the origins of the national myths to their original contexts enables a rather thorough deconstruction of the proto-historical imaginary in this Finnish case study. Considering Anthony D. Smith's idea of ancient 'ethnies' being the basis for nationalist causes, the author considers such an approach in the Finnish case totally misplaced.

History, Transfer, Politics : Five studies on the legacy of Uppsala philosophy

The Uppsala school of Axel Hägerström can be said to have been the last genuinely Swedish philosophical movement. On the other hand, the Swedish analytic tradition is often said to have its roots in Hägerström s thought. This work examines the transformation from Uppsala philosophy to analytic philosophy from an actor-based historical perspective. The aim is to describe how a group of younger scholars (Ingemar Hedenius, Konrad Marc-Wogau, Anders Wedberg, Alf Ross, Herbert Tingsten, Gunnar Myrdal) colonised the legacy of Hägerström and Uppsala philosophy, and faced the challenges they met in trying to reconcile this legacy with the changing philosophical and political currents of the 1930s and 40s. Following Quentin Skinner, the texts are analysed as moves or speech acts in a particular historical context. The thesis consists of five previously published case studies and an introduction. The first study describes how the image of Hägerström as the father of the Swedish analytic tradition was created by a particular faction of younger Uppsala philosophers who (re-) presented the Hägerströmian philosophy as a parallel movement to logical empiricism. The second study examines the confrontations between Uppsala philosophy and logical empiricism in both the editorial board and in the pages of Sweden s leading philosophical journal Theoria. The third study focuses on how the younger generation redescribed Hägerströmian legal philosophical ideas (Scandinavian Legal Realism), while the fourth study discusses how they responded to the accusations of a connection between Hägerström s value nihilistic theory and totalitarianism. Finally, the fifth study examines how the Swedish social scientist and Social Democratic intellectual Gunnar Myrdal tried to reconcile value nihilism with a strong political programme for social reform. The contribution of this thesis to the field consists mainly in a re-evaluation of the role of Uppsala philosophy in the history of Swedish philosophy. From this perspective the Uppsala School was less a collection of certain definite philosophical ideas than an intellectual legacy that was the subject of fierce struggles. Its theories and ideas were redescribed in various ways by individual actors with different philosophical and political intentions.

Irish Folklore Commission 1935-1970 : history, ideology, methodology

Between 1935 and 1970 the state-funded Irish Folklore Commission (Coimisiún Béaloideasa Éireann) assembled one of the great folklore collections of the world under the direction of Séamus Ó Duilearga (James Hamilton Delargy). The aim of this study is to recount and assess the work and achievement of this commission. The cultural, linguistic, political and ideological factors that had a bearing on the establishment and making permanent of the Commission and that impinged on many aspects of its work are here elucidated. The genesis of the Commission is traced and the vision and mission of Séamus Ó Duilearga are outlined. The negotiations that preceded the setting up of the Commission in 1935 as well as protracted efforts from 1940 to 1970 to place it on a permanent foundation are recounted and examined at length. All the various collecting programmes and other activities of the Commission are described in detail and many aspects of its work are assessed. This study also deals with the working methods and conditions of employment of the Commission s field and Head Office staff as well as with Séamus Ó Duilearga s direction of the Commission. In executing this work extensive use has been made of primary sources in archives and libraries in Ireland, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, and North America. This is the first major study of this world-famous institute, which has been praised in passing in numerous publications, but here for the first time its work and achievement are detailed comprehensively and subjected to scholarly scrutiny. This study should be of interest not only to students of Irish oral tradition but to folklorists everywhere. The history of the Irish Folklore Commission is a part of a wider history, that of the history of folkloristics in Europe and North America in particular. Moreover, this work has relevance for many areas of the developing world today, where conditions are not dissimilar to those that pertained in Ireland in the 1930's when this great salvage operation was funded by the young, independent Irish state. It is also hoped that this work will be of practical assistance to scholars and the general public when utilising these collections, and that furthermore it will stimulate research into the assembling of other national collections of folklore as well as into the history of folkloristics in other countries, subjects which in recent years are beginning to attract more and more scholarly attention.

Environmental change and human history in the Jabal Harun area, Jordan

The research is related to the Finnish Jabal Harun Project (FJHP), which is part of the research unit directed by Professor Jaakko Frösén. The project consists of two interrelated parts: the excavation of a Byzantine monastery/pilgrimage centre on Jabal Harun, and a multiperiod archaeological survey of the surrounding landscape. It is generally held that the Near Eastern landscape has been modified by millennia of human habitation and activity. Past climatic changes and human activities could be expected to have significantly changed also the landscape of the Jabal Harun area. Therefore it was considered that a study of erosion in the Jabal Harun area could shed light on the environmental and human history of the area. It was hoped that it would be possible to connect the results of the sedimentological studies either to wider climatic changes in the Near East, or to archaeologically observable periods of human activity and land use. As evidence of some archaeological periods is completely missing from the Jabal Harun area, it was also of interest whether catastrophic erosion or unfavourable environmental change, caused either by natural forces or by human agency, could explain the gaps in the archaeological record. Changes in climate and/or land-use were expected to be reflected in the sedimentary record. The field research, carried out as part of the FJHP survey fieldwork, included the mapping of wadi terraces and cleaning of sediment profiles which were recorded and sampled for laboratory analyses of facies and lithology. To obtain a chronology for the sedimentation and erosion phases also OSL (optically stimulated luminescence) dating samples were collected. The results were compared to the record of the Near Eastern palaeoclimate, and to data from geoarchaeological studies in central and southern Jordan. The picture of the environmental development was then compared to the human history in the area, based on archaeological evidence from the FJHP survey and the published archaeological research in the Petra region, and the question of the relationship between human activity and environmental change was critically discussed. Using the palaeoclimatic data and the results from geoarchaeological studies it was possible to outline the environmental development in the Jabal Harun area from the Pleistocene to the present.It is appears that there was a phase of accumulation of sediment before the Middle Palaeolithic period, possibly related to tectonic movement. This phase was later followed by erosion, tentatively suggested to have taken place during the Upper Palaeolithic. A period of wadi aggradation probably occurred during the Late Glacial and continued until the end of the Pleistocene, followed by significant channel degradation, attributed to increased rainfall during the Early Holocene. It seems that during the later Holocene channel incision has been dominant in the Jabal Harûn area although there have been also small-scale channel aggradation phases, two of which were OSL-dated to around 4000-3000 BP and 2400-2000 BP. As there is no evidence of tectonic movements in the Jabal Harun area after the early Pleistocene, it is suggested that climate change and human activity have been the major causes of environmental change in the area. At a brief glance it seems that many of the changes in the settlement and land use in the Jabal Harun area can be explained by climatic and environmental conditions. However, the responses of human societies to environmental change are dependent on many factors. Therefore an evaluation of the significance of environmental, cultural, socio-economic and political factors is needed to decide whether certain phenomena are environmentally induced. Comparison with the wider Petra region is also needed to judge whether the phenomena are characteristic of the Jabal Harun area only, or can they be connected to social, political and economic development over a wider area.

Early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Chinese and Indian adult population

Objectives of this study were to determine secular trends of diabetes prevalence in China and develop simple risk assessment algorithms for screening individuals with high-risk for diabetes or with undiagnosed diabetes in Chinese and Indian adults. Two consecutive population based surveys in Chinese and a prospective study in Mauritian Indians were involved in this study. The Chinese surveys were conducted in randomly selected populations aged 20-74 years in 2001-2002 (n=14 592) and 35-74 years in 2006 (n=4416). A two-step screening strategy using fasting capillary plasma glucose (FCG) as first-line screening test followed by standard 2-hour 75g oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) was applied to 12 436 individuals in 2001, while OGTTs were administrated to all participants together with FCG in 2006 and to 2156 subjects in 2002. In Mauritius, two consecutive population based surveys were conducted in Mauritian Indians aged 20-65 years in 1987 and 1992; 3094 Indians (1141 men), who were not diagnosed as diabetes at baseline, were reexamined with OGTTs in 1992 and/or 1998. Diabetes and pre-diabetes was defined following 2006 World Health Organization/ International Diabetes Federation Criteria. Age-standardized, as well as age- and sex-specific, prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes in adult Chinese was significantly increased from 12.2% and 15.4% in 2001 to 16.0% and 21.2% in 2006, respectively. A simple Chinese diabetes risk score was developed based on the data of Chinese survey 2001-2002 and validated in the population of survey 2006. The risk scores based on β coefficients derived from the final Logistic regression model ranged from 3 – 32. When the score was applied to the population of survey 2006, the area under operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score for screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.70), which was lower than the AUC of FCG (0.76 [0.74-0.79]), but similar to that of HbA1c (0.68 [0.65-0.71]). At a cut-off point of 14, the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score in screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.84 (0.81-0.88) and 0.40 (0.38-0.41). In Mauritian Indian, body mass index (BMI), waist girth, family history of diabetes (FH), and glucose was confirmed to be independent risk predictors for developing diabetes. Predicted probabilities for developing diabetes derived from a simple Cox regression model fitted with sex, FH, BMI and waist girth ranged from 0.05 to 0.64 in men and 0.03 to 0.49 in women. To predict the onset of diabetes, the AUC of the predicted probabilities was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.56-0.68) in men and 0.64(0.59-0.69) in women. At a cut-off point of 0.12, the sensitivity and specificity was 0.72(0.71-0.74) and 0.47(0.45-0.49) in men; and 0.77(0.75-0.78) and 0.50(0.48-0.52) in women, respectively. In conclusion, there was a rapid increase in prevalence of diabetes in Chinese adults from 2001 to 2006. The simple risk assessment algorithms based on age, obesity and family history of diabetes showed a moderate discrimination of diabetes from non-diabetes, which may be used as first line screening tool for diabetes and pre-diabetes, and for health promotion purpose in Chinese and Indians.