Markov random fields and spatial smoothing in improving of forest inventory estimates

Markov random fields (MRF) are popular in image processing applications to describe spatial dependencies between image units. Here, we take a look at the theory and the models of MRFs with an application to improve forest inventory estimates. Typically, autocorrelation between study units is a nuisance in statistical inference, but we take an advantage of the dependencies to smooth noisy measurements by borrowing information from the neighbouring units. We build a stochastic spatial model, which we estimate with a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The smooth values are validated against another data set increasing our confidence that the estimates are more accurate than the originals.

Questions to Artificial Nature: A Philosophical Study of Interdisciplinary Models and their Functions in Scientific Practice

This thesis presents an interdisciplinary analysis of how models and simulations function in the production of scientific knowledge. The work is informed by three scholarly traditions: studies on models and simulations in philosophy of science, so-called micro-sociological laboratory studies within science and technology studies, and cultural-historical activity theory. Methodologically, I adopt a naturalist epistemology and combine philosophical analysis with a qualitative, empirical case study of infectious-disease modelling. This study has a dual perspective throughout the analysis: it specifies the modelling practices and examines the models as objects of research. The research questions addressed in this study are: 1) How are models constructed and what functions do they have in the production of scientific knowledge? 2) What is interdisciplinarity in model construction? 3) How do models become a general research tool and why is this process problematic? The core argument is that the mediating models as investigative instruments (cf. Morgan and Morrison 1999) take questions as a starting point, and hence their construction is intentionally guided. This argument applies the interrogative model of inquiry (e.g., Sintonen 2005; Hintikka 1981), which conceives of all knowledge acquisition as process of seeking answers to questions. The first question addresses simulation models as Artificial Nature, which is manipulated in order to answer questions that initiated the model building. This account develops further the "epistemology of simulation" (cf. Winsberg 2003) by showing the interrelatedness of researchers and their objects in the process of modelling. The second question clarifies why interdisciplinary research collaboration is demanding and difficult to maintain. The nature of the impediments to disciplinary interaction are examined by introducing the idea of object-oriented interdisciplinarity, which provides an analytical framework to study the changes in the degree of interdisciplinarity, the tools and research practices developed to support the collaboration, and the mode of collaboration in relation to the historically mutable object of research. As my interest is in the models as interdisciplinary objects, the third research problem seeks to answer my question of how we might characterise these objects, what is typical for them, and what kind of changes happen in the process of modelling. Here I examine the tension between specified, question-oriented models and more general models, and suggest that the specified models form a group of their own. I call these Tailor-made models, in opposition to the process of building a simulation platform that aims at generalisability and utility for health-policy. This tension also underlines the challenge of applying research results (or methods and tools) to discuss and solve problems in decision-making processes.

Spinaalistenoosipotilaiden psyykkinen hyvinvointi ennen leikkaushoitoa ja sen jälkeen

Surgical treatment of lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) is a treatment option for those patients who remain severely symptomatic after a course of conservative treatment. Majority of the patients treated surgically enjoy good-to-excellent outcomes with respect to pain alleviation and functional recovery. However, between 20% and 40% of the patients who have surgery for LSS do not benefit from it. The knowledge of the psychological factors associated with recovery and treatment outcome is still scarce. The aim of this study was to assess LSS patients selected for surgical treatment. Specifically, the study assessed the prevalence of depression (Beck Depression Inventory, BDI) before surgical treatment and three months after the treatment. Also preoperative life satisfaction (four-item Life Satisfaction scale) of the LSS patients was studied. Furthermore, the patients satisfaction with surgery outcome at the three months postoperative stage was studied. One-fifth (20%) of the LSS-patients were found to have depression preoperatively. The patients assessments of the pain intensity or location were not associated with depression. The factors that did associate with depression were subjective disability of everyday living and poor life satisfaction. In addition to this, low sense of coherence and poor life satisfaction were associated with depression in logistic regression models. Significant associations were seen between preoperative depression and postoperative high disability scores, high symptom severity scores and higher pain intensity ratings. The patients with continuous depression (60% of the patients who had preoperative depression) showed less improvement in symptom severity, disability, pain and walking capacity than the patients who did not experience depression at any stage. In those patients who recovered from depression (35% of the patients with preoperative depression), the postoperative improvement was rather similar to the improvement seen in the normal mood group. One-fourth (25%) of the preoperative patients with LSS were found to be dissatisfied with life. The dissatisfied patients were significantly younger and had more self-reported somatic comorbidity. The dissatisfied patients had also elevated subjective disability scores and more extensive pain locations. Also lower coping resources and higher BDI scores were associated with life dissatisfaction. Younger age and somatic comorbidity were associated with life dissatisfaction in regression models. Two-thirds (66%) of the patients were at least clearly satisfied with the surgery outcome at three months postoperative stage. In group comparisons, the lack of physical, functional and emotional well-being was associated with the patients dissatisfaction with the surgery outcome. Younger age, postoperative symptom severity, disability and depression were independently associated with dissatisfaction with the surgery outcome. The results show that depression and psychological well-being are important factors with respect to LSS patients functional ability and recovery both before and three months after surgical treatment. Therefore, the clinical practice recommendations should include an assessment of depression

Xanthine oxidoreductase in essential hypertension and metabolic syndrome : Experimental studies on rodent models

Hypertension, obesity, dyslipidemia and dysglycemia constitute metabolic syndrome, a major public health concern, which is associated with cardiovascular mortality. High dietary salt (NaCl) is the most important dietary risk factor for elevated blood pressure. The kidney has a major role in salt-sensitive hypertension and is vulnerable to harmful effects of increased blood pressure. Elevated serum urate is a common finding in these disorders. While dysregulation of urate excretion is associated with cardiovascular diseases, present studies aimed to clarify the role of xanthine oxidoreductase (XOR), i.e. xanthine dehydrogenase (XDH) and its post-translational isoform xanthine oxidase (XO), in cardiovascular diseases. XOR yields urate from hypoxanthine and xanthine. Low oxygen levels upregulate XOR in addition to other factors. In present studies higher renal XOR activity was found in hypertension-prone rats than in the controls. Furthermore, NaCl intake increased renal XOR dose-dependently. To clarify whether XOR has any causal role in hypertension, rats were kept on NaCl diets for different periods of time, with or without a XOR inhibitor, allopurinol. While allopurinol did not alleviate hypertension, it prevented left ventricular and renal hypertrophy. Nitric oxide synthases (NOS) produce nitric oxide (NO), which mediates vasodilatation. A paucity of NO, produced by NOS inhibition, aggravated hypertension and induced renal XOR, whereas NO generating drug, alleviated salt-induced hypertension without changes in renal XOR. Zucker fa/fa rat is an animal model of metabolic syndrome. These rats developed substantial obesity and modest hypertension and showed increased hepatic and renal XOR activities. XOR was modified by diet and antihypertensive treatment. Cyclosporine (CsA) is a fungal peptide and one of the first-line immunosuppressive drugs used in the management of organ transplantation. Nephrotoxicity ensue high doses resulting in hypertension and limit CsA use. CsA increased renal XO substantially in salt-sensitive rats on a high NaCl diet, indicating a possible role for this reactive oxygen species generating isoform in CsA nephrotoxicity. Renal hypoxia, common to these rodent models of hypertension and obesity, is one of the plausible XOR inducing factors. Although XOR inhibition did not prevent hypertension, present experimental data indicate that XOR plays a role in the pathology of salt-induced cardiac and renal hypertrophy.

Novel conditional mouse models for targeted kidney research : Emphasis on the analysis of the biological function of nephrin

Nephrin is a transmembrane protein belonging to the immunoglobulin superfamily and is expressed primarily in the podocytes, which are highly differentiated epithelial cells needed for primary urine formation in the kidney. Mutations leading to nephrin loss abrogate podocyte morphology, and result in massive protein loss into urine and consequent early death in humans carrying specific mutations in this gene. The disease phenotype is closely replicated in respective mouse models. The purpose of this thesis was to generate novel inducible mouse-lines, which allow targeted gene deletion in a time and tissue-specific manner. A proof of principle model for succesful gene therapy for this disease was generated, which allowed podocyte specific transgene replacement to rescue gene deficient mice from perinatal lethality. Furthermore, the phenotypic consequences of nephrin restoration in the kidney and nephrin deficiency in the testis, brain and pancreas in rescued mice were investigated. A novel podocyte-specific construct was achieved by using standard cloning techniques to provide an inducible tool for in vitro and in vivo gene targeting. Using modified constructs and microinjection procedures two novel transgenic mouse-lines were generated. First, a mouse-line with doxycycline inducible expression of Cre recombinase that allows podocyte-specific gene deletion was generated. Second, a mouse-line with doxycycline inducible expression of rat nephrin, which allows podocyte-specific nephrin over-expression was made. Furthermore, it was possible to rescue nephrin deficient mice from perinatal lethality by cross-breeding them with a mouse-line with inducible rat nephrin expression that restored the missing endogenous nephrin only in the kidney after doxycycline treatment. The rescued mice were smaller, infertile, showed genital malformations and developed distinct histological abnormalities in the kidney with an altered molecular composition of the podocytes. Histological changes were also found in the testis, cerebellum and pancreas. The expression of another molecule with limited tissue expression, densin, was localized to the plasma membranes of Sertoli cells in the testis by immunofluorescence staining. Densin may be an essential adherens junction protein between Sertoli cells and developing germ cells and these junctions share similar protein assembly with kidney podocytes. This single, binary conditional construct serves as a cost- and time-efficient tool to increase the understanding of podocyte-specific key proteins in health and disease. The results verified a tightly controlled inducible podocyte-specific transgene expression in vitro and in vivo as expected. These novel mouse-lines with doxycycline inducible Cre recombinase and with rat nephrin expression will be useful for conditional gene targeting of essential podocyte proteins and to study in detail their functions in the adult mice. This is important for future diagnostic and pharmacologic development platforms.

Kohti hyvää suometsien hoitoa : harvennusten ja kunnostusojitusten vaikutus ojitusaluemänniköiden puuntuotokseen ja metsänkasvatuksen taloustulokseen

This thesis examines the impacts of silvicultural activities on productivity and financial returns of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands on drained peatlands in Finland. The effects of ditch network maintenance operations (DNM) and thinnings, with different timings and intensities, were studied. Based on stand development simulations, the best regimes for different types of stands according to site type, climatic area, and stand silvicultural status were defined from the viewpoint of both wood production and financial profitability. Certain aspects affecting the management outcomes, such as the timing of the first thinning, were examined using data from thinning experiments. Long-term predictions of the impacts of different management regimes were carried out by simulating the development of well-representative model-stands which were composed from appropriate inventory data sets. The MOTTI stand simulator used to perform the simulations enables the predictions by utilizing specific models for drained peatland stands. In addition to natural stand dynamics, these models describe the effects of silvicultural treatments on the development of a given stand. The mean annual increment of merchantable wood (MAImerch) was used as the measure of wood productivity, and the financial feasibility of the regimes was compared using net present value (NPV) analysis. Silvicultural treatments, when applied to appropriately match stand condition, increased both the productivity and financial returns of stand management. Applying DNM resulted in a small increase in MAImerch. When thinning was introduced along with DNM, their combined effect on wood productivity was considerable. According to current operational practices, DNM is generally combined with thinning. In some cases, e.g., in sites of low productivity, the need for DNM may become apparent prior to the thinning stage. As for profitability, thinnings proved to be crucial. The regimes with heavy and late thinnings were generally more profitable than those with normal thinnings. Further, early thinning (relative to stand volume) lacked appeal when seeking a financially profitable removal from the first thinning. In young stands with an initially poor silvicultural condition, however, applying even a low-yielding first thinning considerably increased the NPV when compared to a regime with no thinning at all. Generally, the regimes resulting in the best profitability included heavier thinnings and fewer DNM and thinning treatments than did the regimes resulting in the best yield results. This study demonstrates considerable potential for profitable wood production-oriented management in pine stands on drained peatlands despite their challenging circumstances and long rotations. The results can be used for defining new and more site-specific silvicultural guidelines for various types of drained, pine-dominated peatland stands within the entire range of boreal conditions.

Nuorten männiköiden kehitys - taimikonhoito ja ensiharvennus

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of location, site type, regeneration method and precommercial thinning on the characteristics and development of young, even-aged, pure Scots pine stands. In addition, the effects of timing and intensity of first commercial thinning on the yield and profitability during the rotation period were also studied. The stand characteristics and external quality of young Scots pine stands and stand-level growth models were based on extensive inventory data of the Finnish Forest Research Institute for young Scots pine stands (3 measurement times, 192 stands). The effect of precommercial thinning on stand development was examined on the basis of long-term experiments (13 stands, 169 plots). The effect of timing and intensity of the first commercial thinning on yield and profitability were based on measurements made in first commercial thinnings (27 stands of Metsähallitus), and the further stand development was modeled using the MOTTI simulator. The thesis was based on four articles and a summary. Stand level growth models were developed for young, even-aged Scots pine stands. The models reliably predicted the development up until the first commercial thinning stage. The stand density of young Scots pine stands in Finland was moderately low compared to the target values. In addition, the external quality of pines was low on average. The low stand density and poor external quality will result in the need for quality tree selection in thinnings, if high quality sawn timber is required. In Northern Finland, only 20% of the dominant trees were classified as normal. This will lead to the situation where external quality will remain relatively poor up until the end of rotation. Early and light precommercial thinning (Hdom 3 m, to a density of 3000 trees per hectare) increased the thinning removal by 40% compared to late and more intensive precommercial thinning (at 7 meters to a density of 2000 trees per hectare). A model for the effect of precommercial thinning on merchantable thinning removal at the first commercial thinning was developed for forest management planning purposes. When the recommended time of first commercial thinning was delayed from a dominant height of 12 m to 16 m, or by ten years, the yield of merchantable wood was doubled. Simultaneously, the current value of the stumpage revenues (with 4% interest rate) was increased on the average by 65% (330 € per hectare). Variation in stumpage prices or interest rates did not have any effect on the final results. Without exception, delaying the first commercial thinning by ten years seemed to be the most profitable method. This presupposes that precommercial thinning has been carried out at the right time and that tree quality aspects do not be specially considered. Furthermore, the wood yield and economic outcome from the entire rotation were similar regardless of whether the first thinning was performed at the time currently recommended or ten years later.

Soil carbon modelling as a tool for carbon balance studies in forestry

Soils represent a remarkable stock of carbon, and forest soils are estimated to hold half of the global stock of soil carbon. Topical concern about the effects of climate change and forest management on soil carbon as well as practical reporting requirements set by climate conventions have created a need to assess soil carbon stock changes reliably and transparently. The large spatial variability of soil carbon commensurate with relatively slow changes in stocks hinders the assessment of soil carbon stocks and their changes by direct measurements. Models therefore widely serve to estimate carbon stocks and stock changes in soils. This dissertation aimed to develop the soil carbon model YASSO for upland forest soils. The model was aimed to take into account the most important processes controlling the decomposition in soils, yet remain simple enough to ensure its practical applicability in different applications. The model structure and assumptions were presented and the model parameters were defined with empirical measurements. The model was evaluated by studying the sensitivities of the model results to parameter values, by estimating the precision of the results with an uncertainty analysis, and by assessing the accuracy of the model by comparing the predictions against measured data and to the results of an alternative model. The model was applied to study the effects of intensified biomass extraction on the forest carbon balance and to estimate the effects of soil carbon deficit on net greenhouse gas emissions of energy use of forest residues. The model was also applied in an inventory based method to assess the national scale forest carbon balance for Finland’s forests from 1922 to 2004. YASSO managed to describe sufficiently the effects of both the variable litter and climatic conditions on decomposition. When combined with the stand models or other systems providing litter information, the dynamic approach of the model proved to be powerful for estimating changes in soil carbon stocks on different scales. The climate dependency of the model, the effects of nitrogen on decomposition and forest growth as well as the effects of soil texture on soil carbon stock dynamics are areas for development when considering the applicability of the model to different research questions, different land use types and wider geographic regions. Intensified biomass extraction affects soil carbon stocks, and these changes in stocks should be taken into account when considering the net effects of forest residue utilisation as energy. On a national scale, soil carbon stocks play an important role in forest carbon balances.

Econometric models of Finnish non-industrial private forest owners' timber supply and timber stock

This dissertation examines the short- and long-run impacts of timber prices and other factors affecting NIPF owners' timber harvesting and timber stocking decisions. The utility-based Faustmann model provides testable hypotheses of the exogenous variables retained in the timber supply analysis. The timber stock function, derived from a two-period biomass harvesting model, is estimated using a two-step GMM estimator based on balanced panel data from 1983 to 1991. Timber supply functions are estimated using a Tobit model adjusted for heteroscedasticity and nonnormality of errors based on panel data from 1994 to 1998. Results show that if specification analysis of the Tobit model is ignored, inconsistency and biasedness can have a marked effect on parameter estimates. The empirical results show that owner's age is the single most important factor determining timber stock; timber price is the single most important factor in harvesting decision. The results of the timber supply estimations can be interpreted using utility-based Faustmann model of a forest owner who values a growing timber in situ.

Uncertainty in forest simulators and forest planning systems

The forest simulator is a computerized model for predicting forest growth and future development as well as effects of forest harvests and treatments. The forest planning system is a decision support tool, usually including a forest simulator and an optimisation model, for finding the optimal forest management actions. The information produced by forest simulators and forest planning systems is used for various analytical purposes and in support of decision making. However, the quality and reliability of this information can often be questioned. Natural variation in forest growth and estimation errors in forest inventory, among other things, cause uncertainty in predictions of forest growth and development. This uncertainty stemming from different sources has various undesirable effects. In many cases outcomes of decisions based on uncertain information are something else than desired. The objective of this thesis was to study various sources of uncertainty and their effects in forest simulators and forest planning systems. The study focused on three notable sources of uncertainty: errors in forest growth predictions, errors in forest inventory data, and stochastic fluctuation of timber assortment prices. Effects of uncertainty were studied using two types of forest growth models, individual tree-level models and stand-level models, and with various error simulation methods. New method for simulating more realistic forest inventory errors was introduced and tested. Also, three notable sources of uncertainty were combined and their joint effects on stand-level net present value estimates were simulated. According to the results, the various sources of uncertainty can have distinct effects in different forest growth simulators. The new forest inventory error simulation method proved to produce more realistic errors. The analysis on the joint effects of various sources of uncertainty provided interesting knowledge about uncertainty in forest simulators.