Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

Space in Musical Semiosis : An Abductive Theory of the Musical Composition Process

Space in musical semiosis is a study of musical meaning, spatiality and composition. Earlier studies on musical composition have not adequately treated the problems of musical signification. Here, composition is considered an epitomic process of musical signification. Hence the core problems of composition theory are core problems of musical semiotics. The study employs a framework of naturalist pragmatism, based on C. S. Peirce’s philosophy. It operates on concepts such as subject, experience, mind and inquiry, and incorporates relevant ideas of Aristotle, Peirce and John Dewey into a synthetic view of esthetic, practic, and semiotic for the benefit of grasping musical signification process as a case of semiosis in general. Based on expert accounts, music is depicted as real, communicative, representational, useful, embodied and non-arbitrary. These describe how music and the musical composition process are mental processes. Peirce’s theories are combined with current morphological theories of cognition into a view of mind, in which space is central. This requires an analysis of space, and the acceptance of a relativist understanding of spatiality. This approach to signification suggests that mental processes are spatially embodied, by virtue of hard facts of the world, literal representations of objects, as well as primary and complex metaphors each sharing identities of spatial structures. Consequently, music and the musical composition process are spatially embodied. Composing music appears as a process of constructing metaphors—as a praxis of shaping and reshaping features of sound, representable from simple quality dimensions to complex domains. In principle, any conceptual space, metaphorical or literal, may set off and steer elaboration, depending on the practical bearings on the habits of feeling, thinking and action, induced in musical communication. In this sense, it is evident that music helps us to reorganize our habits of feeling, thinking, and action. These habits, in turn, constitute our existence. The combination of Peirce and morphological approaches to cognition serves well for understanding musical and general signification. It appears both possible and worthwhile to address a variety of issues central to musicological inquiry in the framework of naturalist pragmatism. The study may also contribute to the development of Peircean semiotics.

On Musical Self-Similarity : Intersemiosis as Synecdoche and Analogy

Self-similarity, a concept taken from mathematics, is gradually becoming a keyword in musicology. Although a polysemic term, self-similarity often refers to the multi-scalar feature repetition in a set of relationships, and it is commonly valued as an indication for musical coherence and consistency . This investigation provides a theory of musical meaning formation in the context of intersemiosis, that is, the translation of meaning from one cognitive domain to another cognitive domain (e.g. from mathematics to music, or to speech or graphic forms). From this perspective, the degree of coherence of a musical system relies on a synecdochic intersemiosis: a system of related signs within other comparable and correlated systems. This research analyzes the modalities of such correlations, exploring their general and particular traits, and their operational bounds. Looking forward in this direction, the notion of analogy is used as a rich concept through its two definitions quoted by the Classical literature: proportion and paradigm, enormously valuable in establishing measurement, likeness and affinity criteria. Using quantitative qualitative methods, evidence is presented to justify a parallel study of different modalities of musical self-similarity. For this purpose, original arguments by Benoît B. Mandelbrot are revised, alongside a systematic critique of the literature on the subject. Furthermore, connecting Charles S. Peirce s synechism with Mandelbrot s fractality is one of the main developments of the present study. This study provides elements for explaining Bolognesi s (1983) conjecture, that states that the most primitive, intuitive and basic musical device is self-reference, extending its functions and operations to self-similar surfaces. In this sense, this research suggests that, with various modalities of self-similarity, synecdochic intersemiosis acts as system of systems in coordination with greater or lesser development of structural consistency, and with a greater or lesser contextual dependence.

Bridging East and West : The Establishment of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in the United States Foreign Policy of Bridge Building, 1964-1972.

The dissertation examines the foreign policies of the United States through the prism of science and technology. In the focal point of scrutiny is the policy establishing the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the development of the multilateral part of bridge building in American foreign policy during the 1960s and early 1970s. After a long and arduous negotiation process, the institute was finally established by twelve national member organizations from the following countries: Bulgaria, Canada, Czechoslovakia, Federal Republic of Germany (FRG), France, German Democratic Republic (GDR), Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Poland, Soviet Union and United States; a few years later Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands also joined. It is said that the goal of the institute was to bring together researchers from East and West to solve pertinent problems caused by the modernization process experienced in industrialized world. It originates from President Lyndon B. Johnson s bridge building policies that were launched in 1964, and was set in a well-contested and crowded domain of other international organizations of environmental and social planning. Since the distinct need for yet another organization was not evident, the process of negotiations in this multinational environment enlightens the foreign policy ambitions of the United States on the road to the Cold War détente. The study places this project within its political era, and juxtaposes it with other international organizations, especially that of the OECD, ECE and NATO. Conventionally, Lyndon Johnson s bridge building policies have been seen as a means to normalize its international relations bilaterally with different East European countries, and the multilateral dimension of the policy has been ignored. This is why IIASA s establishment process in this multilateral environment brings forth new information on US foreign policy goals, the means to achieve these goals, as well as its relations to other advanced industrialized societies before the time of détente, during the 1960s and early 1970s. Furthermore, the substance of the institute applied systems analysis illuminates the differences between European and American methodological thinking in social planning. Systems analysis is closely associated with (American) science and technology policies of the 1960s, especially in its military administrative applications, thus analysis within the foreign policy environment of the United States proved particularly fruitful. In the 1960s the institutional structures of European continent with faltering, and the growing tendencies of integration were in flux. One example of this was the long, drawn-out process of British membership in the EEC, another is de Gaulle s withdrawal from NATO s military-political cooperation. On the other hand, however, economic cooperation in Europe between East and West, and especially with the Soviet Union was expanding rapidly. This American initiative to form a new institutional actor has to be seen in that structural context, showing that bridge building was needed not only to the East, but also to the West. The narrative amounts to an analysis of how the United States managed both cooperation and conflict in its hegemonic aspirations in the emerging modern world, and how it used its special relationship with the United Kingdom to achieve its goals. The research is based on the archives of the United States, Great Britain, Sweden, Finland, and IIASA. The primary sources have been complemented with both contemporary and present day research literature, periodicals, and interviews.

Country-scale carbon accounting of the vegetation and mineral soils of Finland

The increase in global temperature has been attributed to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), mainly that of CO2. The threat of severe and complex socio-economic and ecological implications of climate change have initiated an international process that aims to reduce emissions, to increase C sinks, and to protect existing C reservoirs. The famous Kyoto protocol is an offspring of this process. The Kyoto protocol and its accords state that signatory countries need to monitor their forest C pools, and to follow the guidelines set by the IPCC in the preparation, reporting and quality assessment of the C pool change estimates. The aims of this thesis were i) to estimate the changes in carbon stocks vegetation and soil in the forests in Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004, ii) to evaluate the applied methodology by using empirical data, iii) to assess the reliability of the estimates by means of uncertainty analysis, iv) to assess the effect of forest C sinks on the reliability of the entire national GHG inventory, and finally, v) to present an application of model-based stratification to a large-scale sampling design of soil C stock changes. The applied methodology builds on the forest inventory measured data (or modelled stand data), and uses statistical modelling to predict biomasses and litter productions, as well as a dynamic soil C model to predict the decomposition of litter. The mean vegetation C sink of Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004 was 3.3 Tg C a-1, and in soil was 0.7 Tg C a-1. Soil is slowly accumulating C as a consequence of increased growing stock and unsaturated soil C stocks in relation to current detritus input to soil that is higher than in the beginning of the period. Annual estimates of vegetation and soil C stock changes fluctuated considerably during the period, were frequently opposite (e.g. vegetation was a sink but soil was a source). The inclusion of vegetation sinks into the national GHG inventory of 2003 increased its uncertainty from between -4% and 9% to ± 19% (95% CI), and further inclusion of upland mineral soils increased it to ± 24%. The uncertainties of annual sinks can be reduced most efficiently by concentrating on the quality of the model input data. Despite the decreased precision of the national GHG inventory, the inclusion of uncertain sinks improves its accuracy due to the larger sectoral coverage of the inventory. If the national soil sink estimates were prepared by repeated soil sampling of model-stratified sample plots, the uncertainties would be accounted for in the stratum formation and sample allocation. Otherwise, the increases of sampling efficiency by stratification remain smaller. The highly variable and frequently opposite annual changes in ecosystem C pools imply the importance of full ecosystem C accounting. If forest C sink estimates will be used in practice average sink estimates seem a more reasonable basis than the annual estimates. This is due to the fact that annual forest sinks vary considerably and annual estimates are uncertain, and they have severe consequences for the reliability of the total national GHG balance. The estimation of average sinks should still be based on annual or even more frequent data due to the non-linear decomposition process that is influenced by the annual climate. The methodology used in this study to predict forest C sinks can be transferred to other countries with some modifications. The ultimate verification of sink estimates should be based on comparison to empirical data, in which case the model-based stratification presented in this study can serve to improve the efficiency of the sampling design.

Observations of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling

In this thesis, the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling is studied observationally, with the main focus on the ionospheric currents in the auroral region. The thesis consists of five research articles and an introductory part that summarises the most important results reached in the articles and places them in a wider context within the field of space physics. Ionospheric measurements are provided by the International Monitor for Auroral Geomagnetic Effects (IMAGE) magnetometer network, by the low-orbit CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) satellite, by the European Incoherent SCATter (EISCAT) radar, and by the Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) satellite. Magnetospheric observations, on the other hand, are acquired from the four spacecraft of the Cluster mission, and solar wind observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and Wind spacecraft. Within the framework of this study, a new method for determining the ionospheric currents from low-orbit satellite-based magnetic field data is developed. In contrast to previous techniques, all three current density components can be determined on a matching spatial scale, and the validity of the necessary one-dimensionality approximation, and thus, the quality of the results, can be estimated directly from the data. The new method is applied to derive an empirical model for estimating the Hall-to-Pedersen conductance ratio from ground-based magnetic field data, and to investigate the statistical dependence of the large-scale ionospheric currents on solar wind and geomagnetic parameters. Equations describing the amount of field-aligned current in the auroral region, as well as the location of the auroral electrojets, as a function of these parameters are derived. Moreover, the mesoscale (10-1000 km) ionospheric equivalent currents related to two magnetotail plasma sheet phenomena, bursty bulk flows and flux ropes, are studied. Based on the analysis of 22 events, the typical equivalent current pattern related to bursty bulk flows is established. For the flux ropes, on the other hand, only two conjugate events are found. As the equivalent current patterns during these two events are not similar, it is suggested that the ionospheric signatures of a flux rope depend on the orientation and the length of the structure, but analysis of additional events is required to determine the possible ionospheric connection of flux ropes.

Data fusion and matching by maximizing statistical dependencies

The core aim of machine learning is to make a computer program learn from the experience. Learning from data is usually defined as a task of learning regularities or patterns in data in order to extract useful information, or to learn the underlying concept. An important sub-field of machine learning is called multi-view learning where the task is to learn from multiple data sets or views describing the same underlying concept. A typical example of such scenario would be to study a biological concept using several biological measurements like gene expression, protein expression and metabolic profiles, or to classify web pages based on their content and the contents of their hyperlinks. In this thesis, novel problem formulations and methods for multi-view learning are presented. The contributions include a linear data fusion approach during exploratory data analysis, a new measure to evaluate different kinds of representations for textual data, and an extension of multi-view learning for novel scenarios where the correspondence of samples in the different views or data sets is not known in advance. In order to infer the one-to-one correspondence of samples between two views, a novel concept of multi-view matching is proposed. The matching algorithm is completely data-driven and is demonstrated in several applications such as matching of metabolites between humans and mice, and matching of sentences between documents in two languages.

ISO 13567 - The Proposed International Standard for Structuring Layers in Computer Aided Building Design

Layering is a widely used method for structuring data in CAD-models. During the last few years national standardisation organisations, professional associations, user groups for particular CAD-systems, individual companies etc. have issued numerous standards and guidelines for the naming and structuring of layers in building design. In order to increase the integration of CAD data in the industry as a whole ISO recently decided to define an international standard for layer usage. The resulting standard proposal, ISO 13567, is a rather complex framework standard which strives to be more of a union than the least common denominator of the capabilities of existing guidelines. A number of principles have been followed in the design of the proposal. The first one is the separation of the conceptual organisation of information (semantics) from the way this information is coded (syntax). The second one is orthogonality - the fact that many ways of classifying information are independent of each other and can be applied in combinations. The third overriding principle is the reuse of existing national or international standards whenever appropriate. The fourth principle allows users to apply well-defined subsets of the overall superset of possible layernames. This article describes the semantic organisation of the standard proposal as well as its default syntax. Important information categories deal with the party responsible for the information, the type of building element shown, whether a layer contains the direct graphical description of a building part or additional information needed in an output drawing etc. Non-mandatory information categories facilitate the structuring of information in rebuilding projects, use of layers for spatial grouping in large multi-storey projects, and storing multiple representations intended for different drawing scales in the same model. Pilot testing of ISO 13567 is currently being carried out in a number of countries which have been involved in the definition of the standard. In the article two implementations, which have been carried out independently in Sweden and Finland, are described. The article concludes with a discussion of the benefits and possible drawbacks of the standard. Incremental development within the industry, (where ”best practice” can become ”common practice” via a standard such as ISO 13567), is contrasted with the more idealistic scenario of building product models. The relationship between CAD-layering, document management product modelling and building element classification is also discussed.

Perinatal mortality and maternal health in rural China

Background and context Since the economic reforms of 1978, China has been acclaimed as a remarkable economy, achieving 9% annual growth per head for more than 25 years. However, China's health sector has not fared well. The population health gains slowed down and health disparities increased. In the field of health and health care, significant progress in maternal care has been achieved. However, there still remain important disparities between the urban and rural areas and among the rural areas in terms of economic development. The excess female infant deaths and the rapidly increasing sex ratio at birth in the last decade aroused serious concerns among policy makers and scholars. Decentralization of the government administration and health sector reform impacts maternal care. Many studies using census data have been conducted to explore the determinants of a high sex ratio at birth, but no agreement has been so far reached on the possible contributing factors. No study using family planning system data has been conducted to explore perinatal mortality and sex ratio at birth and only few studies have examined the impact of the decentralization of government and health sector reforms on the provision and organization of maternal care in rural China. Objectives The general objective of this study was to investigate the state of perinatal health and maternal care and their determinants in rural China under the historic context of major socioeconomic reforms and the one child family planning policy. The specific objectives of the study included: 1) to study pregnancy outcomes and perinatal health and their correlates in a rural Chinese county; 2) to examine the issue of sex ratio at birth and its determinants in a rural Chinese county; 3) to explore the patterns of provision, utilization, and content of maternal care in a rural Chinese county; 4) to investigate the changes in the use of maternal care in China from 1991 to 2003. Materials and Methods This study is based on a project for evaluating the prenatal care programme in Dingyuan county in 1999-2003, Anhui province, China and a nationwide household health survey to describe the changes in maternal care utilization. The approaches used included a retrospective cohort study, cross sectional interview surveys, informant interviews, observations and the use of statistical data. The data sources included the following: 1) A cohort of pregnant women followed from pregnancy up to 7 days after birth in 20 townships in the study county, collecting information on pregnancy outcomes using family planning records; 2) A questionnaire interview survey given to women who gave birth between 2001 and 2003; 3) Various statistical and informant surveys data collected from the study county; 4) Three national household health interview survey data sets (1993-2003) were utilized, and reanalyzed to described the changes in maternity care utilization. Relative risks (RR) and their confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for comparison between parity, approval status, infant sex and township groups. The chi-square test was used to analyse the disparity of use of maternal care between and within urban and rural areas and its trend across the years in China. Logistic regression was used to analyse the factors associated with hospital delivery in rural areas. Results There were 3697 pregnancies in the study cohort, resulting in 3092 live births in a total population of 299463 in the 20 study townships during 1999-2000. The average age at pregnancy in the cohort was 25.9 years. Of the women, 61% were childless, 38% already had one child and 0.3% had two children before the current pregnancy. About 90% of approved pregnancies ended in a live birth while 73% of the unapproved ones were aborted. The perinatal mortality rate was 69 per thousand births. If the 30 induced abortions in which the gestational age was more than 28 weeks had been counted as perinatal deaths, the perinatal mortality rate would have been as high as 78 per thousand. The perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the wealth of the township. Approximately two thirds of the perinatal deaths occurred in the early neonatal period. Both the still birth rate and the early neonatal death rate increased with parity. The risk of a stillbirth in a second pregnancy was almost four times that for a first pregnancy, while the risk of early neonatal deaths doubled. The early neonatal mortality rate was twice as high for female as for male infants. The sex difference in the early neonatal mortality rate was mainly attributable to mortality in second births. The male early neonatal mortality rate was not affected by parity, while the female early neonatal mortality rate increased dramatically with parity: it was about six times higher for second births than for first births. About 82% early neonatal deaths happened within 24 hours after birth, and during that time, girls were almost three times more likely to die than boys. The death rate of females on the day of birth increased much more sharply with parity than that of males. The total sex ratio at birth of 3697 registered pregnancies was 152 males to 100 females, with 118 and 287 in first and second pregnancies, respectively. Among unapproved pregnancies, there were almost 5 live-born boys for each girl. Most prenatal and delivery care was to be taken care of in township hospitals. At the village level, there were small private clinics. There was no limitation period for the provision of prenatal and postnatal care by private practitioners. They were not permitted to provide delivery care by the county health bureau, but as some 12% of all births occurred either at home or at private clinics; some village health workers might have been involved. The county level hospitals served as the referral centers for the township hospitals in the county. However, there was no formal regulation or guideline on how the referral system should work. Whether or not a woman was referred to a higher level hospital depended on the individual midwife's professional judgment and on the clients' compliance. The county health bureau had little power over township hospitals, because township hospitals had in the decentralization process become directly accountable to the township government. In the township and county hospitals only 10-20% of the recurrent costs were funded by local government (the township hospital was funded by the township government and the county hospital was funded by the county government) and the hospitals collected user fees to balance their budgets. Also the staff salaries depended on fee incomes by the hospital. The hospitals could define the user charges themselves. Prenatal care consultations were however free in most township hospitals. None of the midwives made postnatal home visits, because of low profit of these services. The three national household health survey data showed that the proportion of women receiving their first prenatal visit within 12 weeks increased greatly from the early to middle 1990s in all areas except for large cities. The increase was much larger in the rural areas, reducing the urban-rural difference from more than 4 times to about 1.4 times. The proportion of women that received antenatal care visits meeting the Ministry of Health s standard (at least 5 times) in the rural areas increased sharply from 12% in 1991-1993 to 36% in 2001-2003. In rural areas, the proportion increase was much faster in less developed areas than in developed areas. The hospital delivery rate increased slightly from 90% to 94% in urban areas while the proportion increased from 27% to 69% in rural areas. The fastest change was found to be in type 4 rural areas, where the utilization even quadrupled. The overall difference between rural and urban areas was substantially narrowed over the period. Multiple logistic regression analysis shows that time periods, residency in rural or urban areas, income levels, age group, education levels, delivery history, occupation, health insurance and distance from the nearest health care facilities were significantly associated with hospital delivery rates. Conclusions 1. Perinatal mortality in this study was much higher than that for urban areas as well as any reported rate from specific studies in rural areas of China. Previous studies in which calculations of infant mortality were not based on epidemiological surveys have been shown to underestimate the rates by more than 50%. 2. Routine statistics collected by the Chinese family planning system proved to be a reliable data source for studying perinatal health, including still births, neonatal deaths, sex ratio at birth and among newborns. National Household Health Survey data proved to be a useful and reliable data source for studying population health and health services. Prior to this research there were few studies in these areas available to international audiences. 3.Though perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the level of township economic development, the excess female early neonatal mortality rate contributed much more to high perinatal mortality rate than economic factors. This was likely a result of the role of the family planning policy and the traditional preferences for sons, which leads to lethal neglect of female newborns and high perinatal mortality. 4. The selective abortions of female foetuses were likely to contribute most to the high sex ratio at birth. The underreporting of female births seemed to have played a secondary role. The higher early neonatal mortality rate in second-born as compared to first-born children, particularly in females, may indicate that neglect or poorer care of female newborn infants also contributes to the high sex ratio at birth or among newborns. Existing family planning policy proved not to effectively control the steadily increased birth sex ratio. 5. The rural-urban gap in service utilization was on average significantly narrowed in terms of maternal healthcare in China from 1991 to 2003. This demonstrates that significant achievements in reducing inequities can be made through a combination of socio-economic development and targeted investments in improving health services, including infrastructure, staff capacities, and subsidies to reduce the costs of service utilization for the poorest. However, the huge gap which persisted among cities of different size and within different types of rural areas indicated the need for further efforts to support the poorest areas. 6. Hospital delivery care in the study county was better accepted by women because most of women think delivery care was very important while prenatal and postnatal care were not. Hospital delivery care was more systematically provided and promoted than prenatal and postnatal care by township hospital in the study area. The reliance of hospital staff income on user fees gave the hospitals an incentive to put more emphasis on revenue generating activities such as delivery care instead of prenatal and postnatal care, since delivery care generated much profits than prenatal and postnatal care . Recommendations 1. It is essential for the central government to re-assess and modify existing family planning policies. In order to keep national sex balance, the existing practice of one couple one child in urban areas and at-least-one-son a couple in rural areas should be gradually changed to a two-children-a-couple policy throughout the country. The government should establish a favourable social security policy for couples, especially for rural couples who have only daughters, with particular emphasis on their pension and medical care insurance, combined with an educational campaign for equal rights for boys and girls in society. 2. There is currently no routine vital-statistics registration system in rural China. Using the findings of this study, the central government could set up a routine vital-statistics registration system using family planning routine work records, which could be used by policy makers and researchers. 3. It is possible for the central and provincial government to invest more in the less developed and poor rural areas to increase the access of pregnant women in these areas to maternal care services. Central government together with local government should gradually provide free maternal care including prenatal and postnatal as well as delivery care to the women in poor and less developed rural areas. 4. Future research could be done to explore if county and the township level health care sector and the family planning system could be merged to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of maternal and child care. 5. Future research could be done to explore the relative contribution of maternal care, economic development and family planning policy on perinatal and child health using prospective cohort studies and community based randomized trials. Key words: perinatal health, perinatal mortality, stillbirth, neonatal death, sex selective abortion, sex ratio at birth, family planning, son preference, maternal care, prenatal care, postnatal care, equity, China

Korkeakoulupolitiikan dynamiikat Suomessa

The study scrutinizes the dynamics of the Finnish higher education political system. Dynamics is understood as the regularity of interaction between actors. By actors is meant the central institutions in the system. The theoretical framework of the study draws on earlier research in political science and higher education political studies. The theoretical model for analysis is built on agenda-setting theories. The theoretical model separates two dimensions of dynamics, namely the political situation and political possibilities. A political situation can be either favourable or contradictory to change. If the institutional framework within the higher education system is not compatible with the external factors of the system, the political situation is contradictory to change. To change the situation into a favourable one, one needs either to change the institutional structure or wait for external factors to change. Then again, the political possibilities can be either settled or politicized. Politicization means that new possibilities for action are found. Settled possibilities refer to routine actions performed according to old practices. The research tasks based on the theoretical model are: 1. To empirically analyse the political situation and the possibilities from the actors point of view. 2. To theoretically construct and empirically test a model for analysis of dynamics in the Finnish higher education politics. The research material consists of 25 thematic interviews with key persons in the higher education political system in 2008. In addition, there are also documents from different actors since the 1980s and statistical data. The material is analysed in four phases. In the first phase the emphasis is on trying to understand the interviewees and actors points of view. In the second phase the different types of research material are related to each other. In the third phase the findings are related to the theoretical model, which is constructed over the course of the analysis. In the fourth phase the interpretation is tested. The research distinguishes three historical periods in the Finnish higher education system and focuses on the last one. This is the era of the complex system beginning in the 1980s 1990s. Based on the interviews, four policy threads are identified and analysed in their historical context. Each of the policy threads represents one of the four possible dynamics identified in the theoretical model. The research policy thread functions according to reform dynamics. A coalition of innovation politics is able to use the politicized possibilities due to the political situation created by the conception of the national innovation system. The regional policy thread is in a gridlock dynamics. The combination of a political system based on provincial representation, a regional higher education institutional framework and outside pressure to streamline the higher education structure created a contradictory political situation. Because of this situation, the politicized possibilities in the so-called "regional development plan" do not have much effect. In the international policy thread, a consensual change dynamics is found. Through changes in the institutional framework, the higher education political system is moulded into a favourable situation. However, the possibilities are settled: a pragmatic national gaze prevailed. A dynamics of friction is found in the governance policy thread. A political situation where political-strategic and budgetary decision-making are separated is not favourable for change. In addition, as governance policy functions according to settled possibilities, the situation seems unchangeable. There are five central findings. First, the dynamics are different depending on the policy thread under scrutiny. Second, the settled possibilities in a policy thread seemed to influence other threads the most. Third, dynamics are much related to changes external to the higher education political system, the changing positions of the actors in different policy threads and the unexpected nature of the dynamics. Fourth, it is fruitful to analyse the dynamics with the theoretical model. Fifth, but only hypothetically and thus left for further research, it seems that the Finnish higher education politics is reactive and weak at politicization.

Teachers' attitudes to and beliefs about web-based Collaborative Learning Environments in the context of an international implementation

"Fifty-six teachers, from four European countries, were interviewed to ascertain their attitudes to and beliefs about the Collaborative Learning Environments (CLEs) which were designed under the Innovative Technologies for Collaborative Learning Project. Their responses were analysed using categories based on a model from cultural-historical activity theory [Engestrom, Y. (1987). Learning by expanding.- An activity-theoretical approach to developmental research. Helsinki: Orienta-Konsultit; Engestrom, Y., Engestrom, R., & Suntio, A. (2002). Can a school community learn to master its own future? An activity-theoretical study of expansive learning among middle school teachers. In G. Wells & G. Claxton (Eds.), Learning for life in the 21st century. Oxford: Blackwell Publishers]. The teachers were positive about CLEs and their possible role in initiating pedagogical innovation and enhancing personal professional development. This positive perception held across cultures and national boundaries. Teachers were aware of the fact that demanding planning was needed for successful implementations of CLEs. However, the specific strategies through which the teachers can guide students' inquiries in CLEs and the assessment of new competencies that may characterize student performance in the CLEs were poorly represented in the teachers' reflections on CLEs. The attitudes and beliefs of the teachers from separate countries had many similarities, but there were also some clear differences, which are discussed in the article. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved."

Functional outcome and health-related quality of life after traumatic brain injury in the framework of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF)

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) affects people of all ages and is a cause of long-term disability. In recent years, the epidemiological patterns of TBI have been changing. TBI is a heterogeneous disorder with different forms of presentation and highly individual outcome regarding functioning and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The meaning of disability differs from person to person based on the individual s personality, value system, past experience, and the purpose he or she sees in life. Understanding of all these viewpoints is needed in comprehensive rehabilitation. This study examines the epidemiology of TBI in Finland as well as functioning and HRQoL after TBI, and compares the subjective and objective assessments of outcome. The frame of reference is the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). The subjects of Study I represent the population of Finnish TBI patients who experienced their first TBI between 1991 and 2005. The 55 Finnish subjects of Studies II and IV participated in the first wave of the international Quality of life after brain injury (QOLIBRI) validation study. The 795 subjects from six language areas of Study III formed the second wave of the QOLIBRI validation study. The average annual incidence of Finnish hospitalised TBI patients during the years 1991-2005 was 101:100 000 in patients who had TBI as the primary diagnosis and did not have a previous TBI in their medical history. Males (59.2%) were at considerably higher risk of getting a TBI than females. The most common external cause of the injury was falls in all age groups. The number of TBI patients ≥ 70 years of age increased by 59.4% while the number of inhabitants older than 70 years increased by 30.3% in the population of Finland during the same time period. The functioning of a sample of 55 persons with TBI was assessed by extracting information from the patients medical documents using the ICF checklist. The most common problems were found in the ICF components of Body Functions (b) and Activities and Participation (d). HRQoL was assessed with the QOLIBRI which showed the highest level of satisfaction on the Emotions, Physical Problems and Daily Life and Autonomy scales. The highest scores were obtained by the youngest participants and participants living independently without the help of other people, and by people who were working. The relationship between the functional outcome and HRQoL was not straightforward. The procedure of linking the QOLIBRI and the GOSE to the ICF showed that these two outcome measures cover the relevant domains of TBI patients functioning. The QOLIBRI provides the patients subjective view, while the GOSE summarises the objective elements of functioning. Our study indicates that there are certain domains of functioning that are not traditionally sufficiently documented but are important for the HRQoL of persons with TBI. This was the finding especially in the domains of interpersonal relationships, social and leisure activities, self, and the environment. Rehabilitation aims to optimize functioning and to minimize the experience of disability among people with health conditions, and it needs to be based on a comprehensive understanding of human functioning. As an integrative model, the ICF may serve as a frame of reference in achieving such an understanding.