Studies on the Effects of Property Taxation, Rent Control and Housing Allowances

Tämä väitöskirja koostuu asuntomarkkinoiden taloustieteellistä analyysia esittelevästä johdantoluvusta ja kolmesta tutkimuksesta, joissa analysoidaan asuntomarkkinoihin vaikuttavia politiikkatoimenpiteitä. Luvussa 2 tutkitaan Suomen kiinteistöverojärjestelmän vaikutusta asuntorakentamiseen. Vuonna 2001 tehtiin uudistus, jonka myötä kunnat voivat verottaa rakentamatonta asuintonttia korkeammalla veroasteella kuin rakennettua tonttia. Maanomistajan rakentamispäätöksen teoreettisen mallin mukaan rakentamattoman tontin korotettu kiinteistöveron pitäisi nopeuttaa rakentamista, mutta toisaalta myös rakentamiseen investoitu rahamäärä saattaa muuttua. Asuintonttien kiinteistöverojen yleinen taso ei vaikuta maanomistajan käyttäytymiseen, sillä tontin verotusarvo ei riipu rakentamispäätöksestä. Vain rakentamattoman ja rakennetun tontin veroasteiden erolla on merkitystä. Empiiriset tulokset ovat sopusoinnussa teorian kanssa. Tulosten mukaan prosenttiyksikön nousu rakentamattoman ja rakennetun tontin veroasteiden erossa lisää omakotialoitusten määrää viidellä prosentilla lyhyellä aikavälillä. Luvussa 3 analysoidaan vuokrasääntelystä vuokralaisille aiheutuvia hyötyjä ja haittoja. Vuokrasäännellyissä asunnoissa asuvat kotitaloudet hyötyvät vuokrasääntelystä alhaisen vuokran muodossa. Heille saattaa kuitenkin koitua myös haittaa siitä, että toiveita vastaavan asunnon löytäminen on vuokrasääntelytilanteessa vaikeaa, koska vapaille asunnoille on suuri määrä ottajia. Vapaarahoitteisen vuokra-asuntokannan vuokrien sääntely purettiin Suomessa asteittain vuosina 1992–1995. Tutkimuksen empiiriset tulokset viittaavat siihen, että vuokrasääntelyn aiheuttamista suurista eroista halutun ja todellisen asuntokulutuksen välillä koituvat hyvinvointitappiot kumosivat merkittävän osan matalien vuokrien hyödyistä vuokralaisille. Luvussa 4 tutkitaan Suomen asumistukijärjestelmän kannustinvaikutuksia. Asumistuen määrää rajoittavat asunnon pinta-alalle ja neliövuokralle asetetut ylärajat. Neliövuokrarajoite voidaan tulkita asumisen laatua rajoittavana tekijänä. Tutkimuksen teoreettisessa osassa osoitetaan, että asumistukijärjestelmä luo vahvat kannustimet muuttaa asuntoihin, joissa pinta-ala- ja laaturajoitteet purevat. Empiiristen tulosten mukaan asumistukeen oikeutetut kotitaloudet eivät näytä reagoivan kannusteisiin. Tukeen oikeutettujen kotitalouksien asumisvalinnat suhteessa pinta-ala ja laaturajoitteisiin vastaavat muiden kotitalouksien valintoja ja asunnonvaihdon mahdollistama potentiaalinen asumistuen lisäys ei nosta muuttotodennäköisyyttä. Muuttamiseen liittyvät kustannukset ja vajavaiset tiedot tukijärjestelmästä saattavat selittää heikkoa reagointia asumistuen luomiin kannustimiin. Toinen mahdollinen selitys on asumistuen vajaakäyttö. Tutkimuksen mukaan vain 70–80 prosenttia asumistukeen oikeutetuista kotitalouksista nostaa tukea. Asumistuen hyödyntämisen todennäköisyys riippuu koulutustasosta, tuen määrästä ja tulo-odotuksista.

Taloustilanteen heikkenemisestä johtuvat muutokset asuntosijoittamiseen pääkaupunkiseudulla 2008

Tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää miten taloustaantuma vaikutti asuntosijoittamisen kiinnostavuuteen ja asuntomarkkinoilla käytävään keskusteluun vuonna 2008. Tuolloin Suomen talous taantui voimakkaasti ja nopeasti yllättäen myös ennusteita laativat asiantuntijat. Ekonomistien lausunnoista puuttui yhdenmukaisuus ja tarkkuus. Ne myös saattoivat muuttua merkittävästi lyhyellä aikavälillä. Taantumassa sijoitusviestintä on varovaista ja tarkasti muotoiltua. Sijoittajat uskovat mielellään muiden sijoittajien mielipiteitä ja käsityksiä vaikkei niiden taustalla olisikaan aina todennettua faktatietoa. Asiantuntijoiden tilastoihin halutaan uskoa vaikka niitä kohtaan koetaan epäilyksiä. Toisaalta asuntosijoittamisen kannattavuuteen ja taloudelliseen tuottoon halutaan uskoa vaikka asiantuntijat voisivat todistaa toisin. Tutkimus toteutettiin kvalitatiivisena tapaustutkimuksena jota analysoitiin Greimasin aktanttimallia mukaillen. Tutkimusaineisto koostui 14 Helsingin Sanomissa julkaistuista asuntosijoittamiseen liittyvistä artikkelista sekä 13 Taloussanomien keskustelupalstalla julkaistusta mielipidekirjoituksesta. Viestien merkityksiä käytiin läpi semioottisesti määrittelemällä eri aktanteille rooleja. Tarinassa sijoittajasubjektin objektina on asunto, jonka avulla pyritään saavuttamaan mahdollisimman suuri rahallinen tuotto. Lähettäjiä ovat muun muassa tilastojen laatijat ja sijoitusneuvojat. Kaikki optimaalisen sijoituspäätöksen tekemiseen vaikuttavat aktantit käydään tarkemmin läpi tutkimuksen loppupuolella.

Mathematical Aspects of Financial Markets with Frictions

Frictions are factors that hinder trading of securities in financial markets. Typical frictions include limited market depth, transaction costs, lack of infinite divisibility of securities, and taxes. Conventional models used in mathematical finance often gloss over these issues, which affect almost all financial markets, by arguing that the impact of frictions is negligible and, consequently, the frictionless models are valid approximations. This dissertation consists of three research papers, which are related to the study of the validity of such approximations in two distinct modeling problems. Models of price dynamics that are based on diffusion processes, i.e., continuous strong Markov processes, are widely used in the frictionless scenario. The first paper establishes that diffusion models can indeed be understood as approximations of price dynamics in markets with frictions. This is achieved by introducing an agent-based model of a financial market where finitely many agents trade a financial security, the price of which evolves according to price impacts generated by trades. It is shown that, if the number of agents is large, then under certain assumptions the price process of security, which is a pure-jump process, can be approximated by a one-dimensional diffusion process. In a slightly extended model, in which agents may exhibit herd behavior, the approximating diffusion model turns out to be a stochastic volatility model. Finally, it is shown that when agents' tendency to herd is strong, logarithmic returns in the approximating stochastic volatility model are heavy-tailed. The remaining papers are related to no-arbitrage criteria and superhedging in continuous-time option pricing models under small-transaction-cost asymptotics. Guasoni, Rásonyi, and Schachermayer have recently shown that, in such a setting, any financial security admits no arbitrage opportunities and there exist no feasible superhedging strategies for European call and put options written on it, as long as its price process is continuous and has the so-called conditional full support (CFS) property. Motivated by this result, CFS is established for certain stochastic integrals and a subclass of Brownian semistationary processes in the two papers. As a consequence, a wide range of possibly non-Markovian local and stochastic volatility models have the CFS property.

Foreign Capital and Finland : Central government's first period of reliance on international financial markets, 1862-1938

The main objective of the study is to evaluate the Finnish central government s foreign borrowing between the years 1862 and 1938. Most of this period was characterised by deep capital market integration that bears resemblance to the liberal world financial order at the turn of the millennium. The main aim is to analyse the credit risk associated with the state and its determination by evaluating the world financial market centres perception of Finland. By doing this, the study is also expected to provide an additional dimension to Finland s political and economic history by incorporating into the research the assessments of international capital markets regarding Finland during a period that witnessed profound political and economic changes in Finnish society. The evaluation of the credit risk mainly relies on exchange-rate risk free time series of the state s foreign bonds. They have been collected from quotations in the stock exchanges in Helsinki, Hamburg, Paris and London. In addition, it investigates Finland s exposure to short-term debt and Moody s credit ratings assigned to Finland. The study emphasises the importance of the political risk. It suggests that the hey-day of the state s reliance on foreign capital markets took place during last few decades of the 19th century when Finland enjoyed a wide autonomy in the Russian Empire and prudently managed its economy, highlighted in Finland s adherence to the international gold standard. Political confrontations in Finland and, in particular, in Russia and the turbulence of the world financial system prevented the return of this beneficial position again. Through its issuance of foreign bonds the state was able to import substantial amounts of foreign capital, which was sorely needed to foster economic development in Finland. Moreover, the study argues that the state s presence in the western capital markets not only had economic benefits, but it also increased the international awareness of Finland s distinct and separate status in the Russian Empire and later underlined its position as an independent republic.

Residential Differentiation, Housing Policy and Urban Planning in the Transformation from State Socialism to a Market Economy: The Case of Tallinn

The thesis examines urban issues arising from the transformation from state socialism to a market economy. The main topics are residential differentiation, i.e., uneven spatial distribution of social groups across urban residential areas, and the effects of housing policy and town planning on urban development. The case study is development in Tallinn, the capital city of Estonia, in the context of development of Central and Eastern European cities under and after socialism. The main body of the thesis consists of four separately published refereed articles. The research question that brings the articles together is how the residential (socio-spatial) pattern of cities developed during the state socialist period and how and why that pattern has changed since the transformation to a market economy began. The first article reviews the literature on residential differentiation in Budapest, Prague, Tallinn and Warsaw under state socialism from the viewpoint of the role of housing policy in the processes of residential differentiation at various stages of the socialist era. The paper shows how the socialist housing provision system produced socio-occupational residential differentiation directly and indirectly and it describes how the residential patterns of these cities developed. The second article is critical of oversimplified accounts of rapid reorganisation of the overall socio-spatial pattern of post-socialist cities and of claims that residential mobility has had a straightforward role in it. The Tallinn case study, consisting of an analysis of the distribution of socio-economic groups across eight city districts and over four housing types in 1999 as well as examining the role of residential mobility in differentiation during the 1990s, provides contrasting evidence. The third article analyses the role and effects of housing policies in Tallinn s residential differentiation. The focus is on contemporary post-privatisation housing-policy measures and their effects. The article shows that the Estonian housing policies do not even aim to reduce, prevent or slow down the harmful effects of the considerable income disparities that are manifest in housing inequality and residential differentiation. The fourth article examines the development of Tallinn s urban planning system 1991-2004 from the viewpoint of what means it has provided the city with to intervene in urban development and how the city has used these tools. The paper finds that despite some recent progress in planning, its role in guiding where and how the city actually developed has so far been limited. Tallinn s urban development is rather initiated and driven by private agents seeking profit from their investment in land. The thesis includes original empirical research in the three articles that analyse development since socialism. The second article employs quantitative data and methods, primarily index calculation, whereas the third and the fourth ones draw from a survey of policy documents combined with interviews with key informants. Keywords: residential differentiation, housing policy, urban planning, post-socialist transformation, Estonia, Tallinn

Homeowners' Associations in Russia after the 2005 Housing Reform

The thesis examines homeowners associations as a part of the large-scale housing reform, implemented in Russia since 2005. The reform transferred housing management from the public sector to the private sector and to the citizens responsibility. The reform is a continuation to the privatisation of the housing stock that was started in Russia in the beginning of the 1990s, aiming to build a market-oriented housing sector in the country. The reform makes a fundamental change to the Soviet system, in which ownership along with management and maintenance of housing were monopolised by the state. Homeowners are now responsible for the management of the common areas in privatised houses, which is often realised by establishing a homeowners association. Homeowners associations are examined by using the so-called common-pool resource regime approach, with the main question being the ways in which taking care of common property collectively succeeds in practice. The study is based on interview data of St. Petersburg s homeowners associations. Using the common-pool resource theory the study demonstrates why implementation of the housing reform has not succeeded as expected. Certain elements that characterise a successful common-pool resource regime do not fulfill sufficiently in St. Petersburg s homeowners associations. Firstly, free-riding, that is, withdrawal from the association s joint decision-making and not making the housing payments is common, as effective sanctions to prevent it are missing in the legislation. That is, eviction or expelling a non-paying member from the association is not possible. Secondly, ownership of the land plot and common areas of the house, such as basements and attics, are often disputed between the associations and authorities. In the Soviet era, these common areas were public property along with the apartments, but in privatised houses they should, according to the legislation, belong to the associations property. Thirdly, solution of disputes between the associations and authorities and within the associations is difficult, as the court system tends to be bureaucratic and inefficient. In addition to the common-pool resource approach, the study also examines how social capital contributes to the associations effectiveness and democratic governance. The study finds that although homeowners associations have increased cooperation and tightened social relations between neighbours, social capital has not been able to prevent free-riding. The study shows that unlike it is often claimed, the so-called Soviet mentality , that is, residents passiveness and unwillingness to participate, is not the most important obstacle to the reform. Instead, the reform is impeded most of all by imperfect institutional arrangements and local authorities that prevent the associations from working as independent, self-governing associations.

Finnish and Austrian Wood Markets in a Changing Environment

At present the operating environment of sawmills in Europe is changing and there are uncertainties related in raw material supply in many countries. The changes in the operating environment of roundwood markets and the effects followed by these changes have brought up several interesting issues from the viewpoint of research. Lately new factors have been influencing the roundwood markets, such as increasing interest towards wood-based energy and implementation of new energy policies as well as changes in wood trade flows that affect the domestic markets in many countries. This Master’s thesis studies the adaptation ability of Finnish roundwood markets in a changing operating environment, aiming to produce an up-to-date analysis considering new development trends. The study concentrates on the roundwood markets from the viewpoint of sawmill industry since the industry is dependent on the functioning of the markets and sawmills are highly affected by the changes on the roundwood markets. To facilitate international comparison, the study is implemented by comparing Finnish and Austrian roundwood markets and analysing changes happening in the two countries. Finland and Austria share rather similar characteristics in the roundwood market structures, forest resources and forest ownership as well as production of roundwood and sawnwood. In addition they both are big exporters of forest industry products. In this study changes in the operating environment of sawmill industry both in Finland as well as in Austria are compared to each other aiming to recognise the main similarities and differences between the countries. In addition both development possibilities as well as challenges followed by the changes are discussed. The aim of the study is to define the main challenges and possibilities confronted by the actors on the markets and also to find new perspectives to approach these. The study is implemented as a qualitative study. The theoretical framework of the study describes the operating environment of wood markets from the viewpoint of the sawmill industry and represents the effects of supply and demand on the wood markets. The primary research material of the study was gathered by interviewing high level experts of forestry and sawmill industry in both Finland and Austria. The aim was to receive as extensive country specific viewpoint from the markets as possible, hence interviewees represented different parties of the markets. After creating country-specific profiles based on the theoretical framework a cross-country comparison was implemented. As a consequence the main similarities and differences in the operating environment and on the roundwood markets of Finland and Austria were recognized. In addition the main challenges and possibilites were identified. The results of the study offer a wide analysis regarding the main similarities and differences of the wood markets of Finland and Austria and their operating environments as well as concerning challenges and possibilities faced on the markets.

Intraday Dynamics of International Equity Markets

The increased availability of high frequency data sets have led to important new insights in understanding of financial markets. The use of high frequency data is interesting and persuasive, since it can reveal new information that cannot be seen in lower data aggregation. This dissertation explores some of the many important issues connected with the use, analysis and application of high frequency data. These include the effects of intraday seasonal, the behaviour of time varying volatility, the information content of various market data, and the issue of inter market linkages utilizing high frequency 5 minute observations from major European and the U.S stock indices, namely DAX30 of Germany, CAC40 of France, SMI of Switzerland, FTSE100 of the UK and SP500 of the U.S. The first essay in the dissertation shows that there are remarkable similarities in the intraday behaviour of conditional volatility across European equity markets. Moreover, the U.S macroeconomic news announcements have significant cross border effect on both, European equity returns and volatilities. The second essay reports substantial intraday return and volatility linkages across European stock indices of the UK and Germany. This relationship appears virtually unchanged by the presence or absence of the U.S stock market. However, the return correlation among the U.K and German markets rises significantly following the U.S stock market opening, which could largely be described as a contemporaneous effect. The third essay sheds light on market microstructure issues in which traders and market makers learn from watching market data, and it is this learning process that leads to price adjustments. This study concludes that trading volume plays an important role in explaining international return and volatility transmissions. The examination concerning asymmetry reveals that the impact of the positive volume changes is larger on foreign stock market volatility than the negative changes. The fourth and the final essay documents number of regularities in the pattern of intraday return volatility, trading volume and bid-ask spreads. This study also reports a contemporaneous and positive relationship between the intraday return volatility, bid ask spread and unexpected trading volume. These results verify the role of trading volume and bid ask quotes as proxies for information arrival in producing contemporaneous and subsequent intraday return volatility. Moreover, asymmetric effect of trading volume on conditional volatility is also confirmed. Overall, this dissertation explores the role of information in explaining the intraday return and volatility dynamics in international stock markets. The process through which the information is incorporated in stock prices is central to all information-based models. The intraday data facilitates the investigation that how information gets incorporated into security prices as a result of the trading behavior of informed and uninformed traders. Thus high frequency data appears critical in enhancing our understanding of intraday behavior of various stock markets’ variables as it has important implications for market participants, regulators and academic researchers.

Essays on the Linkages Between Financial Markets, and Risk Asymmetries (summary section only)

During the last few decades there have been far going financial market deregulation, technical development, advances in information technology, and standardization of legislation between countries. As a result, one can expect that financial markets have grown more interlinked. The proper understanding of the cross-market linkages has implications for investment and risk management, diversification, asset pricing, and regulation. The purpose of this research is to assess the degree of price, return, and volatility linkages between both geographic markets and asset categories within one country, Finland. Another purpose is to analyze risk asymmetries, i.e., the tendency of equity risk to be higher after negative events than after positive events of equal magnitude. The analysis is conducted both with respect to total risk (volatility), and systematic risk (beta). The thesis consists of an introductory part and four essays. The first essay studies to which extent international stock prices comove. The degree of comovements is low, indicating benefits from international diversification. The second essay examines the degree to which the Finnish market is linked to the “world market”. The total risk is divided into two parts, one relating to world factors, and one relating to domestic factors. The impact of world factors has increased over time. After 1993, when foreign investors were allowed to freely invest in Finnish assets, the risk level has been higher than previously. This was also the case during the economic recession in the beginning of the 1990’s. The third essay focuses on the stock, bond, and money markets in Finland. According to a trading model, the degree of volatility linkages should be strong. However, the results contradict this. The linkages are surprisingly weak, even negative. The stock market is the most independent, while the money market is affected by events on the two other markets. The fourth essay concentrates on volatility and beta asymmetries. Contrary to many international studies there are only few cases of risk asymmetries. When they occur, they tend to be driven by the market-wide component rather than the portfolio specific element.

The Relationship Between Liquidity, Trading Activity and Return - Studies of the Finnish and Swedish Stock Markets

Liquidity, or how easy an investment is to buy or sell, is becoming increasingly important for financial market participants. The objective of this dissertation is to contribute to the understanding of how liquidity affects financial markets. The first essays analyze the actions taken by underwriters immediately after listing to improve liquidity of IPO stock. To estimate the impact of underwriter activity on the pricing of the IPOs, the order book during the first weeks of trading in the IPO stock is studied. Evidence of stabilization and liquidity enhancing activities by underwriters is found. The second half of the dissertation is concerned with the daily trading of stocks where liquidity may be impacted by policy issues such as changes in taxes or exchange fees and by opening the access to the markets for foreign investors. The desirability of a transaction tax on securities trading is addressed. An increase in transaction tax is found to cause lower prices and higher volatility. In the last essay the objective is to determine if the liquidity of a security has an impact on the return investors require. The results support the notion that returns are negatively correlated to liquidity.

Short-term Price Behavior and the Effect of Foreign Investors in Finnish Equity Markets (summary section only)

As globalization and capital free movement has increased, so has interest in the effects of that global money flow, especially during financial crises. The concern has been that large global money flows will affect the pricing of small local markets by causing, in particular, overreaction. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the body of work concerning short-term under- and overreaction and the short-term effects of foreign investment flow in the small Finnish equity markets. This thesis also compares foreign execution return to domestic execution return. This study’s results indicate that short-term under- and overreaction occurs in domestic-buy portfolios (domestic net buying) rather than in foreign-buy portfolios. This under- and overreaction, however, is not economically meaningful after controlling for the bid-ask bounce effect. Based on this finding, one can conclude that foreign investors do not have a destabilizing effect in the short-term in the Finnish markets. Foreign activity affects short-term returns. When foreign investors are net buyers (sellers) there are positive (negative) market adjusted returns. Literature related to nationality and institutional effect leads us to expect these kind of results. These foreign flows are persistent at a 5 % to 21 % level and the persistence of foreign buy flow is higher than the foreign sell flow. Foreign daily trading execution is worse than domestic execution. Literature which quantifies foreign investors as liquidity demanders and literature related to front-running leads us to expect poorer foreign execution than domestic execution.

Short-Horizon Asymmetric Mean-Reversion and Overreactions: Evidence from the Nordic Stock Markets

This paper examines the asymmetric behavior of conditional mean and variance. Short-horizon mean-reversion behavior in mean is modeled with an asymmetric nonlinear autoregressive model, and the variance is modeled with an Exponential GARCH in Mean model. The results of the empirical investigation of the Nordic stock markets indicates that negative returns revert faster to positive returns when positive returns generally persist longer. Asymmetry in both mean and variance can be seen on all included markets and are fairly similar. Volatility rises following negative returns more than following positive returns which is an indication of overreactions. Negative returns lead to increased variance and positive returns leads even to decreased variance.