Essays on the Bioeconomics of the Northern Baltic Fisheries

World marine fisheries suffer from economic and biological overfishing: too many vessels are harvesting too few fish stocks. Fisheries economics has explained the causes of overfishing and provided a theoretical background for management systems capable of solving the problem. Yet only a few examples of fisheries managed by the principles of the bioeconomic theory exist. With the aim of bridging the gap between the actual fish stock assessment models used to provide management advice and economic optimisation models, the thesis explores economically sound harvesting from national and international perspectives. Using data calibrated for the Baltic salmon and herring stocks, optimal harvesting policies are outlined using numerical methods. First, the thesis focuses on the socially optimal harvest of a single salmon stock by commercial and recreational fisheries. The results obtained using dynamic programming show that the optimal fishery configuration would be to close down three out of the five studied fisheries. The result is robust to stock size fluctuations. Compared to a base case situation, the optimal fleet structure would yield a slight decrease in the commercial catch, but a recreational catch that is nearly seven times higher. As a result, the expected economic net benefits from the fishery would increase nearly 60%, and the expected number of juvenile salmon (smolt) would increase by 30%. Second, the thesis explores the management of multiple salmon stocks in an international framework. Non-cooperative and cooperative game theory are used to demonstrate different "what if" scenarios. The results of the four player game suggest that, despite the commonly agreed fishing quota, the behaviour of the countries has been closer to non-cooperation than cooperation. Cooperation would more than double the net benefits from the fishery compared to a past fisheries policy. Side payments, however, are a prerequisite for a cooperative solution. Third, the thesis applies coalitional games in the partition function form to study whether the cooperative solution would be stable despite the potential presence of positive externalities. The results show that the cooperation of two out of four studied countries can be stable. Compared to a past fisheries policy, a stable coalition structure would provide substantial economic benefits. Nevertheless, the status of the salmon stocks would not improve significantly. Fourth, the thesis studies the prerequisites for and potential consequences of the implementation of an individual transferable quota (ITQ) system in the Finnish herring fishery. Simulation results suggest that ITQs would result in a decrease in the number of fishing vessels, but enables positive profits to overlap with a higher stock size. The empirical findings of the thesis affirm that the profitability of the studied fisheries could be improved. The evidence, however, indicates that incentives for free riding exist, and thus the most preferable outcome both in economic and biological terms is elusive.

Preliminary phonological analysis of the Limi dialect of Humla Bhotia

The purpose of this research was to analyse the phonological system of the Limi dialect of Humla Bhotia. Humla Bhotia is a Tibeto-Burman language that is spoken by approximately 4000 5000 people in the far northwestern Humla province of the Kingdom of Nepal. The language has not previously been the subject of analysis. The data base for this thesis was collected on two different dialects of Humla Bhotia in Kathmandu, the capital of Nepal, from February to May 2000. I had three language informants who speak Humla Bhotia as their mother tongue. One of the informants speaks the Upper Humla dialect and the other two informants speak the Limi dialect. In this thesis I have concentrated on the phonology of the dialect of Limi but occasionally I also make reference to the Upper Humla dialect. The Limi data base consists of 600 words elicited in isolation, sentences where words have been checked for consonantal and pitch variation, and five texts comprising 117 sentences. Firstly, I have studied the geographical location, population and dialects of Humla Bhotia. Five dialects were identified: Limi, Upper Humla, La Yakba, Nyinba and Humli Khyampa. Information on the dialect areas is based on the accounts of seven mother tongue speakers of the language and on Nancy Levine s (1988) anthropological research of the ethnic group Nyinba. Secondly, I have analysed the phonological system of Limi from the viewpoint of American stucturalism much along the lines followed by Pike 1966 [1947] ja 1967 [1948]. In defining the prosodic elements I have also used acoustic analysis. In the Limi dialect there are 7 vowel phonemes. No vowel clusters occur within the same syllable. In this preliminary analysis 29 contrastive plosives, 8 affricates and 5 6 fricatives were found. The data also revealed 4 nasal phonemes, two rhotic phonemes, one lateral phoneme and two central approximants. Further research is however called for to check the phonemic status of these segments. Four contrastive prosodic elements were encountered: nasalisation, length, phonation type and pitch movement. There are two contrastive types of phonation: tense and lax. Many words were found with a third type of phonation, modal phonation. How modal phonation relates to the prosodic system is unclear at this stage and is therefore left for further research to determine. There are two contrastive pitch movement tonemes: a rising toneme and falling toneme. The falling toneme occurs in free variation with a level pitch contour. Rising appears to be linked with lax phonation and falling with tense phonation.

Locus Bonus : The Relationship of the Roman Villa to its Environment in the Vicinity of Rome

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship of the Roman villa to its environment. The villa was an important feature of the countryside intended both for agricultural production and for leisure. Manuals of Roman agriculture give instructions on how to select a location for an estate. The ideal location was a moderate slope facing east or south in a healthy area and good neighborhood, near good water resources and fertile soils. A road or a navigable river or the sea was needed for transportation of produce. A market for selling the produce, a town or a village, should have been nearby. The research area is the surroundings of the city of Rome, a key area for the development of the villa. The materials used consist of archaeological settlement sites, literary and epigraphical evidence as well as environmental data. The sites include all settlement sites from the 7th century BC to 5th century AD to examine changes in the tradition of site selection. Geographical Information Systems were used to analyze the data. Six aspects of location were examined: geology, soils, water resources, terrain, visibility/viewability and relationship to roads and habitation centers. Geology was important for finding building materials and the large villas from the 2nd century BC onwards are close to sources of building stones. Fertile soils were sought even in the period of the densest settlement. The area is rich in water, both rainfall and groundwater, and finding a water supply was fairly easy. A certain kind of terrain was sought over very long periods: a small spur or ridge shoulder facing preferably south with an open area in front of the site. The most popular villa resorts are located on the slopes visible from almost the entire Roman region. A visible villa served the social and political aspirations of the owner, whereas being in the villa created a sense of privacy. The area has a very dense road network ensuring good connectivity from almost anywhere in the region. The best visibility/viewability, dense settlement and most burials by roads coincide, creating a good neighborhood. The locations featuring the most qualities cover nearly a quarter of the area and more than half of the settlement sites are located in them. The ideal location was based on centuries of practical experience and rationalized by the literary tradition.

The Reorganisation of Provincial Territories in Light of the Imperial Decision-Making Process : Later Roman Arabia and Tres Palaestinae as Case Studies

The dissertation examines Roman provincial administration and the phenomenon of territorial reorganisations of provinces during the Imperial period with special emphasis on the provinces of Arabia and Palaestina during the Later Roman period, i.e., from Diocletian (r. 284 305) to the accession of Phocas (602), in the light of imperial decision-making. Provinces were the basic unit of Roman rule, for centuries the only level of administration that existed between the emperor and the cities of the Empire. The significance of the territorial reorganisations that the provinces were subjected to during the Imperial period is thus of special interest. The approach to the phenomenon is threefold: firstly, attention is paid to the nature and constraints of the Roman system of provincial administration. Secondly, the phenomenon of territorial reorganisations is analysed on the macro-scale, and thirdly, a case study concerning the reorganisations of the provinces of Arabia and Palaestina is conducted. The study of the mechanisms of decision-making provides a foundation through which the collected data of all known major territorial reorganisations is interpreted. The data concerning reorganisations is also subjected to qualitative comparative analysis that provides a new perspective to the data in the form of statistical analysis that is sensitive to the complexities of individual cases. This analysis of imperial decision-making is based on a timeframe stretching from Augustus (r. 30 BC AD 14) to the accession of Phocas (602). The study identifies five distinct phases in the use of territorial reorganisations of the provinces. From Diocletian s reign there is a clear normative change that made territorial reorganisations a regular tool of administration for the decision-making elite for addressing a wide variety of qualitatively different concerns. From the beginning of the fifth century the use of territorial reorganisations rapidly diminishes. The two primary reasons for the decline in the use of reorganisations were the solidification of ecclesiastical power and interests connected to the extent of provinces, and the decline of the dioceses. The case study of Palaestina and Arabia identifies seven different territorial reorganisations from Diocletian to Phocas. Their existence not only testifies to wider imperial policies, but also shows sensitivity to local conditions and corresponds with the general picture of provincial reorganisations. The territorial reorganisations of the provinces reflect the proactive control of the Roman decision-making elite. The importance of reorganisations should be recognised more clearly as part of the normal imperial administration of the provinces and especially reflecting the functioning of dioceses.

Statistical analysis of the associations of hereditary factors with the risk of Type 1 diabetes and Diabetic Nephropathy based on the familial data collected through ascertaiment from population-based registers

In genetic epidemiology, population-based disease registries are commonly used to collect genotype or other risk factor information concerning affected subjects and their relatives. This work presents two new approaches for the statistical inference of ascertained data: a conditional and full likelihood approaches for the disease with variable age at onset phenotype using familial data obtained from population-based registry of incident cases. The aim is to obtain statistically reliable estimates of the general population parameters. The statistical analysis of familial data with variable age at onset becomes more complicated when some of the study subjects are non-susceptible, that is to say these subjects never get the disease. A statistical model for a variable age at onset with long-term survivors is proposed for studies of familial aggregation, using latent variable approach, as well as for prospective studies of genetic association studies with candidate genes. In addition, we explore the possibility of a genetic explanation of the observed increase in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Finland in recent decades and the hypothesis of non-Mendelian transmission of T1D associated genes. Both classical and Bayesian statistical inference were used in the modelling and estimation. Despite the fact that this work contains five studies with different statistical models, they all concern data obtained from nationwide registries of T1D and genetics of T1D. In the analyses of T1D data, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility alleles was not observed. In addition, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility genes did not make a plausible explanation for the increase in T1D incidence in Finland. Instead, the Human Leucocyte Antigen associations with T1D were confirmed in the population-based analysis, which combines T1D registry information, reference sample of healthy subjects and birth cohort information of the Finnish population. Finally, a substantial familial variation in the susceptibility of T1D nephropathy was observed. The presented studies show the benefits of sophisticated statistical modelling to explore risk factors for complex diseases.

New aspects of the diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori infection

Aims: Helicobacter pylori infection, although the prevalence is declining in Western world, is still responsible for several clinically important diseases. None of the diagnostic tests is perfect and in this study, the performance of three stool antigen tests was assessed. In areas of high H. pylori prevalence, the definition of patients with the greatest benefit from eradication therapy may be a problem; the role of duodenal gastric metaplasia in categorizing patients at risk for duodenal ulcer was evaluated in this respect. Whether persistent chronic inflammation and elevated H. pylori antibodies after successful eradication are associated with each other or with atrophic gastritis, a long term sequelae of H. pylori infection, were also studied. Patients and methods: The three stool antigen tests were assessed in pre- and post-eradication settings among 364 subjects in two studies as compared to the rapid urease test (RUT), histology, culture, the 13C-urea breath test (UBT) and enzyme immunoassay (EIA) based H. pylori serology. The association between duodenal gastric metaplasia with duodenal ulcer was evaluated in a retrospective study including 1054 patients gastroscopied due to clinical indications and 154 patients previously operated for duodenal ulcer. The extent of duodenal gastric metaplasia was assessed from histological specimens in different patient groups formed on the basis of gastroscopy findings and H. pylori infection. Chronic gastric inflammation (108 patients) and H. pylori antibodies and serum markers for atrophy (77 patients) were assessed in patients earlier treated for H. pylori. Results: Of the stool antigen tests studied, the monoclonal antibody-based EIA-test showed the highest sensitivity and specificity both in the pre-treatment setting (96.9% and 95.9%) and after therapy (96.9% and 97.8%). The polyclonal stool antigen test and the in-office test had at baseline a sensitivity of 91% and 94%, and a specificity of 96% and 89%, respectively and in a post-treatment setting, a sensitivity of 78% and 91%, and a specificity of 97%, respectively. Duodenal gastric metaplasia was strongly associated with H. pylori positive duodenal ulcer (odds ratio 42). Although common still five years after eradication, persistent chronic gastric inflammation (21%) and elevated H. pylori antibodies (33%) were neither associated with each other nor with atrophic gastritis. Conclusions: Current H. pylori infection can feasibly be diagnosed by a monoclonal antibody-based EIA test with the accuracy comparable to that of reference methods. The performance of the polyclonal test as compared to the monoclonal test was inferior especially in the post-treatment setting. The in-office test had a low specificity for primary diagnosis and hence positive test results should probably be confirmed with another test before eradication therapy is prescribed. The presence of widespread duodenal gastric metaplasia showed promising results in detecting patients who should be treated for H. pylori due to an increased risk of duodenal ulcer. If serology is used later on in patients with earlier successfully treated for H. pylori, it should be taken into account that H. pylori antibodies may persist elevated for years for unknown reason. However, this phenomenon was not found to be associated with persistent chronic inflammation or atrophic changes.

The success of the diversified farm : resource-based view

Farms and rural areas have many specific valuable resources that can be used to create non-agricultural products and services. Most of the research regarding on-farm diversification has hitherto concentrated on business start-up or farm survival strategies. Resource allocation and also financial success have not been the primary focus of investigations as yet. In this study these specific topics were investigated i.e. resource allocation and also the financial success of diversified farms from a farm management perspective. The key question addressed in this dissertation, is how tangible and intangible resources of the diversified farm affect the financial success. This study’s theoretical background deals with resource-based theory, and also certain themes of the theory of learning organisation and other decision-making theories. Two datasets were utilised in this study. First, data were collected by postal survey in 2001 (n = 663). Second, data were collected in a follow-up survey in 2006 (n = 439). Data were analysed using multivariate data analyses and path analyses. The study results reveal that, diversified farms performed differently. Success and resources were linked. Professional and management skills affected other resources, and hence directly or indirectly influenced success per se. In the light of empirical analyses of this study, tangible and intangible resources owned by the diversified farm impacted on its financial success. The findings of this study underline the importance of skills and networks for entrepreneur(s). Practically speaking all respondents of this study used either agricultural resources for non-farm businesses or non-farm resources for agricultural enterprises. To share resources in this way was seen as a pragmatic opportunity recognised by farmers. One of the downsides of diversification might be the phenomenon of over-diversification, which can be defined as the situation in which a farm diversifies beyond its optimal limit. The empirical findings of this study reveal that capital and labour resource constrains did have adverse effects on financial success. The evidence indicates that farms that were capital and labour resource constrained in 2001 were still less profitable than their ‘no problems’ counterparts five years later.