Geospatial environmental data modelling applications using remote sensing, GIS and spatial statistics

This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Åland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics of Socupulini moths description, diversity and distribution were analysed at a world-wide scale and for the first time GIS techniques were used for Scopulini moth geographical distribution analysis. This study revealed that Scopulini moths have a cosmopolitan distribution. The majority of the species have been described from the low latitudes, sub-Saharan Africa being the hot spot of species diversity. However, the taxonomical effort has been uneven among biogeographical regions. Paper III showed that forest cover change can be analysed in great detail using modern airborne imagery techniques and historical aerial photographs. However, when spatiotemporal forest cover change is studied care has to be taken in co-registration and image interpretation when historical black and white aerial photography is used. In Paper (IV) human population distribution and abundance could be modelled with fairly good results using geospatial predictors and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. Moreover, land cover layer is not necessary needed as a predictor because first and second-order image texture measurements derived from satellite imagery had more power to explain the variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. Paper V showed that generalized linear model (GLM) is a suitable technique for fire occurrence prediction and for burned area estimation. GLM based burned area estimations were found to be more superior than the existing MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). However, spatial autocorrelation of fires has to be taken into account when using the GLM technique for fire occurrence prediction. Paper VI showed that novel statistical predictive modelling techniques can be used to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping at a regional scale. However, some noticeable variation between different predictive modelling techniques for fire occurrence prediction and burned area estimation existed.

Spatial ecology of a specialist insect herbivore : the leaf-mining moth Tischeria ekebladella on the pedunculate oak Quercus robur

Herbivorous insects comprise a major part of terrestrial biodiversity, and their interactions with their host plants and natural enemies are of vast ecological importance. A large body of research demonstrates that the ecology and evolution of these insects may be affected by trophic interactions, by abiotic influences, and by intraspecific processes, but so far research on these individual aspects has rarely been combined. This thesis uses the leaf-mining moth Tischeria ekebladella and the pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) as a case study to assess how spatial variation in trophic interactions and the physical distribution of host trees jointly affect the distribution, dynamics and evolution of a host-specific herbivore. With respect to habitat quality, Tischeria ekebladella experiences abundant variation at several spatial scales. Most of this variation occurs at small scales notably among leaves and shoots within individual trees. While hypothetically this could cause moths to evolve an ability to select leaves and shoots of high quality, I did not find any coupling between female preference and offspring performance. Based on my studies on temporal variation in resource quality I therefore propose that unpredictable temporal changes in the relative rankings of individual resource units may render it difficult for females to predict the fate of their developing offspring. With respect to intraspecific processes, my results suggest that limited moth dispersal in relation to the spatial distribution of oak trees plays a key role in determining the regional distribution of Tischeria ekebladella. The distribution of the moth is aggregated at the landscape level, where local leaf miner populations are less likely to be present where oaks are scarce. A modelling exercise based on empirical dispersal estimates revealed that the moth population on Wattkast an island in south-western Finland is spatially structured overall, but that the relative importance of local and regional processes on tree-specific moth dynamics varies drastically across the landscape. To conclude, my work in the oak-Tischeria ekebladella system demonstrates that the local abundance and regional distribution of a herbivore may be more strongly influenced by the spatial location of host trees than by their relative quality. Hence, it reveals the importance of considering spatial context in the study of herbivorous insects, and forms a bridge between the classical fields of plant-insect interactions and spatial ecology.

Management of semi-natural grasslands for butterfly and moth communities

This work focuses on the factors affecting species richness, abundance and species composition of butterflies and moths in Finnish semi-natural grasslands, with a special interest in the effects of grazing management. In addition, an aim was set at evaluating the effectiveness of the support for livestock grazing in semi-natural grasslands, which is included in the Finnish agri-environment scheme. In the first field study, butterfly and moth communities in resumed semi-natural pastures were com-pared to old, annually grazed and abandoned previous pastures. Butterfly and moth species compo-sition in restored pastures resembled the compositions observed in old pastures after circa five years of resumed cattle grazing, but diversity of butterflies and moths in resumed pastures remained at a lower level compared with old pastures. None of the butterfly and moth species typical of old pas-tures had become more abundant in restored pastures compared with abandoned pastures. There-fore, it appears that restoration of butterfly and moth communities inhabiting semi-natural grass-lands requires a longer time that was available for monitoring in this study. In the second study, it was shown that local habitat quality has the largest impact on the occurrence and abundance of butterflies and moths compared to the effects of grassland patch area and connec-tivity of the regional grassland network. This emphasizes the importance of current and historical management of semi-natural grasslands on butterfly and moth communities. A positive effect of habitat connectivity was observed on total abundance of the declining butterflies and moths, sug-gesting that these species have strongest populations in well-connected habitat networks. Highest species richness and peak abundance of most individual species of butterflies and moths were generally observed in taller grassland vegetation compared with vascular plants, suggesting a preference towards less intensive management in insects. These differences between plants and their insect herbivores may be understood in the light of both (1) the higher structural diversity of tall vegetation and (2) weaker tolerance of disturbances by herbivorous insects due to their higher trophic level compared to plants. The ecological requirements of all species and species groups inhabiting semi-natural grasslands are probably never met at single restricted sites. Therefore, regional implementation of management to create differently managed areas is imperative for the conservation of different species and species groups dependent on semi-natural grasslands. With limited resources it might be reasonable to focus much of the management efforts in the densest networks of suitable habitat to minimise the risk of extinction of the declining species.

Bayesian analysis of community dynamics

Elucidating the mechanisms responsible for the patterns of species abundance, diversity, and distribution within and across ecological systems is a fundamental research focus in ecology. Species abundance patterns are shaped in a convoluted way by interplays between inter-/intra-specific interactions, environmental forcing, demographic stochasticity, and dispersal. Comprehensive models and suitable inferential and computational tools for teasing out these different factors are quite limited, even though such tools are critically needed to guide the implementation of management and conservation strategies, the efficacy of which rests on a realistic evaluation of the underlying mechanisms. This is even more so in the prevailing context of concerns over climate change progress and its potential impacts on ecosystems. This thesis utilized the flexible hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework in combination with the computer intensive methods known as Markov chain Monte Carlo, to develop methodologies for identifying and evaluating the factors that control the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. These methodologies were used to analyze data from a range of taxa: macro-moths (Lepidoptera), fish, crustaceans, birds, and rodents. Environmental stochasticity emerged as the most important driver of community dynamics, followed by density dependent regulation; the influence of inter-specific interactions on community-level variances was broadly minor. This thesis contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the structure and dynamics of ecological communities, by showing directly that environmental fluctuations rather than inter-specific competition dominate the dynamics of several systems. This finding emphasizes the need to better understand how species are affected by the environment and acknowledge species differences in their responses to environmental heterogeneity, if we are to effectively model and predict their dynamics (e.g. for management and conservation purposes). The thesis also proposes a model-based approach to integrating the niche and neutral perspectives on community structure and dynamics, making it possible for the relative importance of each category of factors to be evaluated in light of field data.

The role of productivity in the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of predator-prey interaction

Productivity is predicted to drive the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of predator-prey interaction through changes in resource allocation between different traits. However, resources are seldom constantly available and thus temporal variation in productivity could have considerable effect on the species' potential to evolve. To study this, three long-term microbial laboratory experiments were established where Serratia marcescens prey bacteria was exposed to predation of protist Tetrahymena thermophila in different prey resource environments. The consequences of prey resource availability for the ecological properties of the predator-prey system, such as trophic dynamics, stability, and virulence, were determined. The evolutionary changes in species traits and prey genetic diversity were measured. The prey defence evolved stronger in high productivity environment. Increased allocation to defence incurred cost in terms of reduced prey resource use ability, which probably constrained prey evolution by increasing the effect of resource competition. However, the magnitude of this trade-off diminished when measured in high resource concentrations. Predation selected for white, non-pigmented, highly defensive prey clones that produced predation resistant biofilm. The biofilm defence was also potentially accompanied with cytotoxicity for predators and could have been traded off with high motility. Evidence for the evolution of predators was also found in one experiment suggesting that co-evolutionary dynamics could affect the evolution and ecology of predator-prey interaction. Temporal variation in resource availability increased variation in predator densities leading to temporally fluctuating selection for prey defences and resource use ability. Temporal variation in resource availability was also able to constrain prey evolution when the allocation to defence incurred high cost. However, when the magnitude of prey trade-off was small and the resource turnover was periodically high, temporal variation facilitated the formation of predator resistant biofilm. The evolution of prey defence constrained the transfer of energy from basal to higher trophic levels, decreasing the strength of top-down regulation on prey community. Predation and temporal variation in productivity decreased the stability of populations and prey traits in general. However, predation-induced destabilization was less pronounced in the high productivity environment where the evolution of prey defence was stronger. In addition, evolution of prey defence weakened the environmental variation induced destabilization of predator population dynamics. Moreover, protozoan predation decreased the S. marcescens virulence in the insect host moth (Parasemia plantaginis) suggesting that species interactions outside the context of host-pathogen relationship could be important indirect drivers for the evolution of pathogenesis. This thesis demonstrates that rapid evolution can affect various ecological properties of predator-prey interaction. The effect of evolution on the ecological dynamics depended on the productivity of the environment, being most evident in the constant environments with high productivity.

Birth of the European individual : Outline of a theory of legal practice

The modern subject is what we can call a self-subjecting individual. This is someone in whose inner reality has been implanted a more permanent governability, a governability that works inside the agent. Michel Foucault s genealogy of the modern subject is the history of its constitution by power practices. By a flight of imagination, suppose that this history is not an evolving social structure or cultural phenomenon, but one of those insects (moth) whose life cycle consists of three stages or moments: crawling larva, encapsulated pupa, and flying adult. Foucault s history of power-practices presents the same kind of miracle of total metamorphosis. The main forces in the general field of power can be apprehended through a generalisation of three rationalities functioning side-by-side in the plurality of different practices of power: domination, normalisation and the law. Domination is a force functioning by the rationality of reason of state: the state s essence is power, power is firm domination over people, and people are the state s resource by which the state s strength is measured. Normalisation is a force that takes hold on people from the inside of society: it imposes society s own reality its empirical verity as a norm on people through silently working jurisdictional operations that exclude pathological individuals too far from the average of the population as a whole. The law is a counterforce to both domination and normalisation. Accounting for elements of legal practice as omnihistorical is not possible without a view of the general field of power. Without this view, and only in terms of the operations and tactical manoeuvres of the practice of law, nothing of the kind can be seen: the only thing that practice manifests is constant change itself. However, the backdrop of law s tacit dimension that is, the power-relations between law, domination and normalisation allows one to see more. In the general field of power, the function of law is exactly to maintain the constant possibility of change. Whereas domination and normalisation would stabilise society, the law makes it move. The European individual has a reality as a problem. What is a problem? A problem is something that allows entry into the field of thought, said Foucault. To be a problem, it is necessary for certain number of factors to have made it uncertain, to have made it lose familiarity, or to have provoked a certain number of difficulties around it . Entering the field of thought through problematisations of the European individual human forms, power and knowledge one is able to glimpse the historical backgrounds of our present being. These were produced, and then again buried, in intersections between practices of power and games of truth. In the problem of the European individual one has suitable circumstances that bring to light forces that have passed through the individual through centuries.