Climate change and agriculture: theory and application of mitigation policies

Agriculture’s contribution to climate change is controversial as it is a significant source of greenhouse gases but also a sink of carbon. Hence its economic and technological potential to mitigate climate change have been argued to be noteworthy. However, social profitability of emission mitigation is a result from factors among emission reductions such as surface water quality impact or profit from production. Consequently, to value comprehensive results of agricultural climate emission mitigation practices, these co-effects to environment and economics should be taken into account. The objective of this thesis was to develop an integrated economic and ecological model to analyse the social welfare of crop cultivation in Finland on distinctive cultivation technologies, conventional tillage and conservation tillage (no-till). Further, we ask whether it would be privately or socially profitable to allocate some of barley cultivation for alternative land use, such as green set-aside or afforestation, when production costs, GHG’s and water quality impacts are taken into account. In the theoretical framework we depict the optimal input use and land allocation choices in terms of environmental impacts and profit from production and derive the optimal tax and payment policies for climate and water quality friendly land allocation. The empirical application of the model uses Finnish data about production cost and profit structure and environmental impacts. According to our results, given emission mitigation practices are not self-evidently beneficial for farmers or society. On the contrary, in some cases alternative land allocation could even reduce social welfare, profiting conventional crop cultivation. This is the case regarding mineral soils such as clay and silt soils. On organic agricultural soils, climate mitigation practices, in this case afforestation and green fallow give more promising results, decreasing climate emissions and nutrient runoff to water systems. No-till technology does not seem to profit climate mitigation although it does decrease other environmental impacts. Nevertheless, the data behind climate emission mitigation practices impact to production and climate is limited and partly contradictory. More specific experiment studies on interaction of emission mitigation practices and environment would be needed. Further study would be important. Particularly area specific production and environmental factors and also food security and safety and socio-economic impacts should be taken into account.

Assessment and mitigation of agricultural water pollution

Yhteenveto: Maatalouden aiheuttama vesistönkuormitus ja sen vähentäminen

Community Pharmacies and the Needs of Mobile EU Citizens - A study on Finns living in Spain

Migration within the European Union (EU) has increased since the Union was established. Community pharmacies provide open access to health care services and can be the first, most frequently used or even the only contact with a nation s health care system among mobile community residents. In some of the mass-migration areas in Southern Europe, most of the customers may represent mobile citizens of foreign background. This has not always been taken into consideration in the development of community pharmacy services. Mobile patients have been on the EU's health policy agenda, but they have seldom been mentioned in the context of community pharmacies. In most of the EU member states, governments control the specific legislation concerning community pharmacies and there is no harmonised pharmaceutical policy or consistent minimal standards for community pharmacy services in the EU. The aim of this study was to understand medication use, the role of community pharmacies and the symptom mitigation process of mobile community residents. Finns living in Spain were used as an example to examine how community pharmacies in a EU member state meet the needs of mobile community residents. The data were collected by a survey in 2002 (response rate 53%, n= 533) and by five focus group discussions in 2006 (n=30). A large number (70%) of the respondents had moved to Spain for health reasons and suffered from chronic morbidity. Community pharmacies had an important role in the healthcare of mobile community residents and the respondents were mostly satisfied with these services. However, several medication safety risks related to community pharmacy practices were identified: 1) Availability of prescription medicines without prescription (e.g., antibiotics, sleeping pills, Viagra®, asthma medications, cardiovascular medicines, psoriasis medicines and analgesics); 2) Irrational use of medicines (e.g., 41% of antibiotic users had bought their antibiotics without a prescription, and the most common reasons for antibiotic self-medication were symptomatic common colds and sore throats); 3) Language barriers between patients and pharmacy professionals; 4) Lack of medication counselling; 5) Unqualified pharmacy personnel providing pharmacotherapy. A fifth of the respondents reported experiencing problems during pharmacy visits in Spain, and the lack of a common language was the source of most of these problems. The findings of this study indicate that regulations and their enforcement can play a crucial role in actually assuring the rational and safe use of medicines. These results can be used in the development of pharmaceutical and healthcare policies in the EU. It is important to define consistent minimum standards for community pharmacy services in the EU. Then, the increasing number of mobile community residents could access safe and high quality health care services, including community pharmacy services, in every member state within the EU.

Metsän kiertoajan vaikutus hiilensidontaan ja metsänkasvatuksen kannattavuuteen

Cost-effective mitigation of climate change is essential for both climate and environmental policy. Forest rotation age is one of the silvicultural measures by which the forest carbon stocks can be influenced with in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol, Article 3.4. The purpose of this study is to evaluate how forest rotation age affects carbon sequestration and the profitability of forestry. The relation between the forest rotation period optimizing forest owners’ discounted net returns over time and rotations which are 10, 20 and 30 years longer than the optimal rotation is examined. In addition, the cost of lengthening the rotation period is studied as well as whether carbon sequestration revenues can improve the profitability of forestry. The data used in the study consist of 16 stands located in Southern Finland. The main tree species in these stands were Norway spruce and Scots pine. Forest simulation tool MOTTI was used in the analysis. The results indicate that by lengthening the rotation period forest carbon stocks increase. However, as the rotation period is lengthened by more than 10 years, as a result of the diminishing growth curve, the rate of carbon sequestration slows down. The average discounted cost of carbon sequestration varied between 2.4 – 14.1 €/tCO2. Carbon sequestration rates in spruce stands were higher and the costs lower than those obtained from pine stands. The absence of carbon trading schemes is an obstacle for the commercialization of forest carbon sinks. In the future, research should concentrate on analysing what kind of operational models of carbon trading could be feasible in Finland.

Essays on socially optimal phosphorus policies in crop production

Phosphorus is a nutrient needed in crop production. While boosting crop yields it may also accelerate eutrophication in the surface waters receiving the phosphorus runoff. The privately optimal level of phosphorus use is determined by the input and output prices, and the crop response to phosphorus. Socially optimal use also takes into account the impact of phosphorus runoff on water quality. Increased eutrophication decreases the economic value of surface waters by Deteriorating fish stocks, curtailing the potential for recreational activities and by increasing the probabilities of mass algae blooms. In this dissertation, the optimal use of phosphorus is modelled as a dynamic optimization problem. The potentially plant available phosphorus accumulated in soil is treated as a dynamic state variable, the control variable being the annual phosphorus fertilization. For crop response to phosphorus, the state variable is more important than the annual fertilization. The level of this state variable is also a key determinant of the runoff of dissolved, reactive phosphorus. Also the loss of particulate phosphorus due to erosion is considered in the thesis, as well as its mitigation by constructing vegetative buffers. The dynamic model is applied for crop production on clay soils. At the steady state, the analysis focuses on the effects of prices, damage parameterization, discount rate and soil phosphorus carryover capacity on optimal steady state phosphorus use. The economic instruments needed to sustain the social optimum are also analyzed. According to the results the economic incentives should be conditioned on soil phosphorus values directly, rather than on annual phosphorus applications. The results also emphasize the substantial effects the differences in varying discount rates of the farmer and the social planner have on optimal instruments. The thesis analyzes the optimal soil phosphorus paths from its alternative initial levels. It also examines how erosion susceptibility of a parcel affects these optimal paths. The results underline the significance of the prevailing soil phosphorus status on optimal fertilization levels. With very high initial soil phosphorus levels, both the privately and socially optimal phosphorus application levels are close to zero as the state variable is driven towards its steady state. The soil phosphorus processes are slow. Therefore, depleting high phosphorus soils may take decades. The thesis also presents a methodologically interesting phenomenon in problems of maximizing the flow of discounted payoffs. When both the benefits and damages are related to the same state variable, the steady state solution may have an interesting property, under very general conditions: The tail of the payoffs of the privately optimal path as well as the steady state may provide a higher social welfare than the respective tail of the socially optimal path. The result is formalized and an applied to the created framework of optimal phosphorus use.

Suomen maatalouden tuottamat kasvihuonekaasujen päästöt eri politiikkaskenaarioissa

Climate change is the single biggest environmental problem in the world at the moment. Although the effects are still not fully understood and there is considerable amount of uncertainty, many na-tions have decided to mitigate the change. On the societal level, a planner who tries to find an eco-nomically optimal solution to an environmental pollution problem seeks to reduce pollution from the sources where reductions are most cost-effective. This study aims to find out how effective the instruments of the agricultural policy are in the case of climate change mitigation in Finland. The theoretical base of this study is the neoclassical economic theory that is based on the assumption of a rational economic agent who maximizes his own utility. This theoretical base has been widened towards the direction clearly essential to the matter: the theory of environmental eco-nomics. Deeply relevant to this problem and central in the theory of environmental economics are the concepts of externalities and public goods. What are also relevant are the problems of global pollution and non-point-source pollution. Econometric modelling was the method that was applied to this study. The Finnish part of the AGMEMOD-model, covering the whole EU, was used for the estimation of the development of pollution. This model is a seemingly recursive, partially dynamic partial-equilibrium model that was constructed to predict the development of Finnish agricultural production of the most important products. For the study, I personally updated the model and also widened its scope in some relevant matters. Also, I devised a table that can calculate the emissions of greenhouse gases according to the rules set by the IPCC. With the model I investigated five alternative scenarios in comparison to the base-line scenario of Agenda 2000 agricultural policy. The alternative scenarios were: 1) the CAP reform of 2003, 2) free trade on agricultural commodities, 3) technological change, 4) banning the cultivation of organic soils and 5) the combination of the last three scenarios as the maximal achievement in reduction. The maximal achievement in the alternative scenario 5 was 1/3 of the level achieved on the base-line scenario. CAP reform caused only a minor reduction when com-pared to the base-line scenario. Instead, the free trade scenario and the scenario of technological change alone caused a significant reduction. The biggest single reduction was achieved by banning the cultivation of organic land. However, this was also the most questionable scenario to be real-ized, the reasons for this are further elaborated in the paper. The maximal reduction that can be achieved in the Finnish agricultural sector is about 11 % of the emission reduction that is needed to comply with the Kyoto protocol.

Integration of natural hazards, risk and climate change into spatial planning practices

Most countries of Europe, as well as many countries in other parts of the world, are experiencing an increased impact of natural hazards. It is often speculated, but not yet proven, that climate change might influence the frequency and magnitude of certain hydro-meteorological natural hazards. What has certainly been observed is a sharp increase in financial losses caused by natural hazards worldwide. Eventhough Europe appears to be a space that is not affected by natural hazards to such catastrophic extents as other parts of the world are, the damages experienced here are certainly increasing too. Natural hazards, climate change and, in particular, risks have therefore recently been put high on the political agenda of the EU. In the search for appropriate instruments for mitigating impacts of natural hazards and climate change, as well as risks, the integration of these factors into spatial planning practices is constantly receiving higher attention. The focus of most approaches lies on single hazards and climate change mitigation strategies. The current paradigm shift of climate change mitigation to adaptation is used as a basis to draw conclusions and recommendations on what concepts could be further incorporated into spatial planning practices. Especially multi-hazard approaches are discussed as an important approach that should be developed further. One focal point is the definition and applicability of the terms natural hazard, vulnerability and risk in spatial planning practices. Especially vulnerability and risk concepts are so many-fold and complicated that their application in spatial planning has to be analysed most carefully. The PhD thesis is based on six published articles that describe the results of European research projects, which have elaborated strategies and tools for integrated communication and assessment practices on natural hazards and climate change impacts. The papers describe approaches on local, regional and European level, both from theoretical and practical perspectives. Based on these, passed, current and future potential spatial planning applications are reviewed and discussed. In conclusion it is recommended to shift from single hazard assessments to multi-hazard approaches, integrating potential climate change impacts. Vulnerability concepts should play a stronger role than present, and adaptation to natural hazards and climate change should be more emphasized in relation to mitigation. It is outlined that the integration of risk concepts in planning is rather complicated and would need very careful assessment to ensure applicability. Future spatial planning practices should also consider to be more interdisciplinary, i.e. to integrate as many stakeholders and experts as possible to ensure the sustainability of investments.

Gene flow from transgenic plant populations: models and applications for risk assessment

The future use of genetically modified (GM) plants in food, feed and biomass production requires a careful consideration of possible risks related to the unintended spread of trangenes into new habitats. This may occur via introgression of the transgene to conventional genotypes, due to cross-pollination, and via the invasion of GM plants to new habitats. Assessment of possible environmental impacts of GM plants requires estimation of the level of gene flow from a GM population. Furthermore, management measures for reducing gene flow from GM populations are needed in order to prevent possible unwanted effects of transgenes on ecosystems. This work develops modeling tools for estimating gene flow from GM plant populations in boreal environments and for investigating the mechanisms of the gene flow process. To describe spatial dimensions of the gene flow, dispersal models are developed for the local and regional scale spread of pollen grains and seeds, with special emphasis on wind dispersal. This study provides tools for describing cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations and for estimating the levels of transgenic contamination of the conventional crops. For perennial populations, a modeling framework describing the dynamics of plants and genotypes is developed, in order to estimate the gene flow process over a sequence of years. The dispersal of airborne pollen and seeds cannot be easily controlled, and small amounts of these particles are likely to disperse over long distances. Wind dispersal processes are highly stochastic due to variation in atmospheric conditions, so that there may be considerable variation between individual dispersal patterns. This, in turn, is reflected to the large amount of variation in annual levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations. Even though land-use practices have effects on the average levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional fields, the level of transgenic contamination of a conventional crop remains highly stochastic. The demographic effects of a transgene have impacts on the establishment of trangenic plants amongst conventional genotypes of the same species. If the transgene gives a plant a considerable fitness advantage in comparison to conventional genotypes, the spread of transgenes to conventional population can be strongly increased. In such cases, dominance of the transgene considerably increases gene flow from GM to conventional populations, due to the enhanced fitness of heterozygous hybrids. The fitness of GM plants in conventional populations can be reduced by linking the selectively favoured primary transgene to a disfavoured mitigation transgene. Recombination between these transgenes is a major risk related to this technique, especially because it tends to take place amongst the conventional genotypes and thus promotes the establishment of invasive transgenic plants in conventional populations.

Below-ground processes in meadow soil under elevated ozone and carbon dioxide : - Greenhouse gas fluxes, N cycling and microbial communities

This thesis focuses on how elevated CO2 and/or O3 affect the below-ground processes in semi-natural vegetation, with an emphasis on greenhouse gases, N cycling and microbial communities. Meadow mesocosms mimicking lowland hay meadows in Jokioinen, SW Finland, were enclosed in open-top chambers and exposed to ambient and elevated levels of O3 (40-50 ppb) and/or CO2 (+100 ppm) for three consecutive growing season, while chamberless plots were used as chamber controls. Chemical and microbiological analyses as well as laboratory incubations of the mesocosm soils under different treatments were used to study the effects of O3 and/or CO2. Artificially constructed mesocosms were also compared with natural meadows with regards to GHG fluxes and soil characteristics. In addition to research conducted at the ecosystem level (i.e. the mesocosm study), soil microbial communities were also examined in a pot experiment with monocultures of individual species. By comparing mesocosms with similar natural plant assemblage, it was possible to demonstrate that artificial mesocosms simulated natural habitats, even though some differences were found in the CH4 oxidation rate, soil mineral N, and total C and N concentrations in the soil. After three growing seasons of fumigations, the fluxes of N2O, CH4, and CO2 were decreased in the NF+O3 treatment, and the soil NH4+-N and mineral N concentrations were lower in the NF+O3 treatment than in the NF control treatment. The mesocosm soil microbial communities were affected negatively by the NF+O3 treatment, as the total, bacterial, actinobacterial, and fungal PLFA biomasses as well as the fungal:bacterial biomass ratio decreased under elevated O3. In the pot survey, O3 decreased the total, bacterial, actinobacterial, and mycorrhizal PLFA biomasses in the bulk soil and affected the microbial community structure in the rhizosphere of L. pratensis, whereas the bulk soil and rhizosphere of the other monoculture, A. capillaris, remained unaffected by O3. Elevated CO2 caused only minor and insignificant changes in the GHG fluxes, N cycling, and the microbial community structure. In the present study, the below-ground processes were modified after three years of moderate O3 enhancement. A tentative conclusion is that a decrease in N availability may have feedback effects on plant growth and competition and affect the N cycling of the whole meadow ecosystem. Ecosystem level changes occur slowly, and multiplication of the responses might be expected in the long run.

Maintaining plant species richness by cattle grazing - mesic semi-natural grasslands as focal habitats

Semi-natural grasslands are the most important agricultural areas for biodiversity. The present study investigates the effects of traditional livestock grazing and mowing on plant species richness, the main emphasis being on cattle grazing in mesic semi-natural grasslands. The two reviews provide a thorough assessment of the multifaceted impacts and importance of grazing and mowing management to plant species richness. It is emphasized that livestock grazing and mowing have partially compensated the suppression of major natural disturbances by humans and mitigated the negative effects of eutrophication. This hypothesis has important consequences for nature conservation: A large proportion of European species originally adapted to natural disturbances may be at present dependent on livestock grazing and / or mowing. Furthermore, grazing and mowing are key management methods to mitigate effects of nutrient-enrichment. The species composition and richness in old (continuously grazed), new (grazing restarting 3-8 years ago) and abandoned (over 10 years) pastures differed consistently across a range of spatial scales, and was intermediate in new pastures compared to old and abandoned pastures. In mesic grasslands most plant species were shown to benefit from cattle grazing. Indicator species of biologically valuable grasslands and rare species were more abundant in grazed than in abandoned grasslands. Steep S-SW-facing slopes are the most suitable sites for many grassland plants and should be prioritized in grassland restoration. The proportion of species trait groups benefiting from grazing was higher in mesic semi-natural grasslands than in dry and wet grasslands. Consequently, species trait responses to grazing and the effectiveness of the natural factors limiting plant growth may be intimately linked High plant species richness of traditionally mowed and grazed areas is explained by numerous factors which operate on different spatial scales. Particularly important for maintaining large scale plant species richness are evolutionary and mitigation factors. Grazing and mowing cause a shift towards the conditions that have occurred during the evolutionary history of European plant species by modifying key ecological factors (nutrients, pH and light). The results of this Dissertation suggest that restoration of semi-natural grasslands by private farmers is potentially a useful method to manage biodiversity in the agricultural landscape. However, the quality of management is commonly improper, particularly due to financial constraints. For enhanced success of restoration, management regulations in the agri-environment scheme need to be defined more explicitly and the scheme should be revised to encourage management of biodiversity.

Country-scale carbon accounting of the vegetation and mineral soils of Finland

The increase in global temperature has been attributed to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), mainly that of CO2. The threat of severe and complex socio-economic and ecological implications of climate change have initiated an international process that aims to reduce emissions, to increase C sinks, and to protect existing C reservoirs. The famous Kyoto protocol is an offspring of this process. The Kyoto protocol and its accords state that signatory countries need to monitor their forest C pools, and to follow the guidelines set by the IPCC in the preparation, reporting and quality assessment of the C pool change estimates. The aims of this thesis were i) to estimate the changes in carbon stocks vegetation and soil in the forests in Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004, ii) to evaluate the applied methodology by using empirical data, iii) to assess the reliability of the estimates by means of uncertainty analysis, iv) to assess the effect of forest C sinks on the reliability of the entire national GHG inventory, and finally, v) to present an application of model-based stratification to a large-scale sampling design of soil C stock changes. The applied methodology builds on the forest inventory measured data (or modelled stand data), and uses statistical modelling to predict biomasses and litter productions, as well as a dynamic soil C model to predict the decomposition of litter. The mean vegetation C sink of Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004 was 3.3 Tg C a-1, and in soil was 0.7 Tg C a-1. Soil is slowly accumulating C as a consequence of increased growing stock and unsaturated soil C stocks in relation to current detritus input to soil that is higher than in the beginning of the period. Annual estimates of vegetation and soil C stock changes fluctuated considerably during the period, were frequently opposite (e.g. vegetation was a sink but soil was a source). The inclusion of vegetation sinks into the national GHG inventory of 2003 increased its uncertainty from between -4% and 9% to ± 19% (95% CI), and further inclusion of upland mineral soils increased it to ± 24%. The uncertainties of annual sinks can be reduced most efficiently by concentrating on the quality of the model input data. Despite the decreased precision of the national GHG inventory, the inclusion of uncertain sinks improves its accuracy due to the larger sectoral coverage of the inventory. If the national soil sink estimates were prepared by repeated soil sampling of model-stratified sample plots, the uncertainties would be accounted for in the stratum formation and sample allocation. Otherwise, the increases of sampling efficiency by stratification remain smaller. The highly variable and frequently opposite annual changes in ecosystem C pools imply the importance of full ecosystem C accounting. If forest C sink estimates will be used in practice average sink estimates seem a more reasonable basis than the annual estimates. This is due to the fact that annual forest sinks vary considerably and annual estimates are uncertain, and they have severe consequences for the reliability of the total national GHG balance. The estimation of average sinks should still be based on annual or even more frequent data due to the non-linear decomposition process that is influenced by the annual climate. The methodology used in this study to predict forest C sinks can be transferred to other countries with some modifications. The ultimate verification of sink estimates should be based on comparison to empirical data, in which case the model-based stratification presented in this study can serve to improve the efficiency of the sampling design.

Analyzing changes in macro-level drivers of country-specific emissions : The role of consumption, technology and trade

Industrial ecology is an important field of sustainability science. It can be applied to study environmental problems in a policy relevant manner. Industrial ecology uses ecosystem analogy; it aims at closing the loop of materials and substances and at the same time reducing resource consumption and environmental emissions. Emissions from human activities are related to human interference in material cycles. Carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms, but in excess have negative environmental impacts, such as climate change (CO2, CH4 N2O), acidification (NOx) and eutrophication (N, P). Several indirect macro-level drivers affect emissions change. Population and affluence (GDP/capita) often act as upward drivers for emissions. Technology, as emissions per service used, and consumption, as economic intensity of use, may act as drivers resulting in a reduction in emissions. In addition, the development of country-specific emissions is affected by international trade. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in emissions as affected by macro-level drivers in different European case studies. ImPACT decomposition analysis (IPAT identity) was applied as a method in papers I III. The macro-level perspective was applied to evaluate CO2 emission reduction targets (paper II) and the sharing of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (paper IV) in the European Union (EU27) up to the year 2020. Data for the study were mainly gathered from official statistics. In all cases, the results were discussed from an environmental policy perspective. The development of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions was analysed in the Finnish energy sector during a long time period, 1950 2003 (paper I). Finnish emissions of NOx began to decrease in the 1980s as the progress in technology in terms of NOx/energy curbed the impact of the growth in affluence and population. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions related to energy use during 1993 2004 (paper II) were analysed by country and region within the European Union. Considering energy-based CO2 emissions in the European Union, dematerialization and decarbonisation did occur, but not sufficiently to offset population growth and the rapidly increasing affluence during 1993 2004. The development of nitrogen and phosphorus load from aquaculture in relation to salmonid consumption in Finland during 1980 2007 was examined, including international trade in the analysis (paper III). A regional environmental issue, eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, and a marginal, yet locally important source of nutrients was used as a case. Nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture decreased from the 1990s onwards: although population, affluence and salmonid consumption steadily increased, aquaculture technology improved and the relative share of imported salmonids increased. According to the sustainability challenge in industrial ecology, the environmental impact of the growing population size and affluence should be compensated by improvements in technology (emissions/service used) and with dematerialisation. In the studied cases, the emission intensity of energy production could be lowered for NOx by cleaning the exhaust gases. Reorganization of the structure of energy production as well as technological innovations will be essential in lowering the emissions of both CO2 and NOx. Regarding the intensity of energy use, making the combustion of fuels more efficient and reducing energy use are essential. In reducing nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture to the Baltic Sea (paper III) through technology, limits of biological and physical properties of cultured fish, among others, will eventually be faced. Regarding consumption, salmonids are preferred to many other protein sources. Regarding trade, increasing the proportion of imports will outsource the impacts. Besides improving technology and dematerialization, other viewpoints may also be needed. Reducing the total amount of nutrients cycling in energy systems and eventually contributing to NOx emissions needs to be emphasized. Considering aquaculture emissions, nutrient cycles can be partly closed through using local fish as feed replacing imported feed. In particular, the reduction of CO2 emissions in the future is a very challenging task when considering the necessary rates of dematerialisation and decarbonisation (paper II). Climate change mitigation may have to focus on other greenhouse gases than CO2 and on the potential role of biomass as a carbon sink, among others. The global population is growing and scaling up the environmental impact. Population issues and growing affluence must be considered when discussing emission reductions. Climate policy has only very recently had an influence on emissions, and strong actions are now called for climate change mitigation. Environmental policies in general must cover all the regions related to production and impacts in order to avoid outsourcing of emissions and leakage effects. The macro-level drivers affecting changes in emissions can be identified with the ImPACT framework. Statistics for generally known macro-indicators are currently relatively well available for different countries, and the method is transparent. In the papers included in this study, a similar method was successfully applied in different types of case studies. Using transparent macro-level figures and a simple top-down approach are also appropriate in evaluating and setting international emission reduction targets, as demonstrated in papers II and IV. The projected rates of population and affluence growth are especially worth consideration in setting targets. However, sensitivities in calculations must be carefully acknowledged. In the basic form of the ImPACT model, the economic intensity of consumption and emission intensity of use are included. In seeking to examine consumption but also international trade in more detail, imports were included in paper III. This example demonstrates well how outsourcing of production influences domestic emissions. Country-specific production-based emissions have often been used in similar decomposition analyses. Nevertheless, trade-related issues must not be ignored.

How Can Sustainable Agricultural Systems Promote Food Security in a Changing Climate?

A theoretical framework of the link between climate change, rural development, sustainable agriculture, poverty, and food security is presented. Some options to respond to climate change are described. Current knowledge and potential effects on agricultural productivity is discussed. Necessary conditions for successful adaptation includes secured property rights to land, institutions that make market access possible and credit possibilities. The options of mitigation and enhanced adaptive capacity and the requirements for their implementation are discussed.

From environmental concerns towards sustainable food provisioning. : Material flow and food consumption scenario studies on sustainability of agri-food systems

Agriculture is an economic activity that heavily relies on the availability of natural resources. Through its role in food production agriculture is a major factor affecting public welfare and health, and its indirect contribution to gross domestic product and employment is significant. Agriculture also contributes to numerous ecosystem services through management of rural areas. However, the environmental impact of agriculture is considerable and reaches far beyond the agroecosystems. The questions related to farming for food production are, thus, manifold and of great public concern. Improving environmental performance of agriculture and sustainability of food production, sustainabilizing food production, calls for application of wide range of expertise knowledge. This study falls within the field of agro-ecology, with interphases to food systems and sustainability research and exploits the methods typical of industrial ecology. The research in these fields extends from multidisciplinary to interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary, a holistic approach being the key tenet. The methods of industrial ecology have been applied extensively to explore the interaction between human economic activity and resource use. Specifically, the material flow approach (MFA) has established its position through application of systematic environmental and economic accounting statistics. However, very few studies have applied MFA specifically to agriculture. The MFA approach was used in this thesis in such a context in Finland. The focus of this study is the ecological sustainability of primary production. The aim was to explore the possibilities of assessing ecological sustainability of agriculture by using two different approaches. In the first approach the MFA-methods from industrial ecology were applied to agriculture, whereas the other is based on the food consumption scenarios. The two approaches were used in order to capture some of the impacts of dietary changes and of changes in production mode on the environment. The methods were applied at levels ranging from national to sector and local levels. Through the supply-demand approach, the viewpoint changed between that of food production to that of food consumption. The main data sources were official statistics complemented with published research results and expertise appraisals. MFA approach was used to define the system boundaries, to quantify the material flows and to construct eco-efficiency indicators for agriculture. The results were further elaborated for an input-output model that was used to analyse the food flux in Finland and to determine its relationship to the economy-wide physical and monetary flows. The methods based on food consumption scenarios were applied at regional and local level for assessing feasibility and environmental impacts of relocalising food production. The approach was also used for quantification and source allocation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of primary production. GHG assessment provided, thus, a means of crosschecking the results obtained by using the two different approaches. MFA data as such or expressed as eco-efficiency indicators, are useful in describing the overall development. However, the data are not sufficiently detailed for identifying the hot spots of environmental sustainability. Eco-efficiency indicators should not be bluntly used in environmental assessment: the carrying capacity of the nature, the potential exhaustion of non-renewable natural resources and the possible rebound effect need also to be accounted for when striving towards improved eco-efficiency. The input-output model is suitable for nationwide economy analyses and it shows the distribution of monetary and material flows among the various sectors. Environmental impact can be captured only at a very general level in terms of total material requirement, gaseous emissions, energy consumption and agricultural land use. Improving environmental performance of food production requires more detailed and more local information. The approach based on food consumption scenarios can be applied at regional or local scales. Based on various diet options the method accounts for the feasibility of re-localising food production and environmental impacts of such re-localisation in terms of nutrient balances, gaseous emissions, agricultural energy consumption, agricultural land use and diversity of crop cultivation. The approach is applicable anywhere, but the calculation parameters need to be adjusted so as to comply with the specific circumstances. The food consumption scenario approach, thus, pays attention to the variability of production circumstances, and may provide some environmental information that is locally relevant. The approaches based on the input-output model and on food consumption scenarios represent small steps towards more holistic systemic thinking. However, neither one alone nor the two together provide sufficient information for sustainabilizing food production. Environmental performance of food production should be assessed together with the other criteria of sustainable food provisioning. This requires evaluation and integration of research results from many different disciplines in the context of a specified geographic area. Foodshed area that comprises both the rural hinterlands of food production and the population centres of food consumption is suggested to represent a suitable areal extent for such research. Finding a balance between the various aspects of sustainability is a matter of optimal trade-off. The balance cannot be universally determined, but the assessment methods and the actual measures depend on what the bottlenecks of sustainability are in the area concerned. These have to be agreed upon among the actors of the area