The regional differences between countries in traffic safety: A cross-cultural study and Turkish Case

Road traffic accidents are a large problem everywhere in the world. However, regional differences in traffic safety between countries are considerable. For example, traffic safety records are much worse in Southern Europe and the Middle East than in Northern and Western Europe. Despite the large regional differences in traffic safety, factors contributing to different accident risk figures in different countries and regions have remained largely unstudied. The general aim of this study was to investigate regional differences in traffic safety between Southern European/Middle Eastern (i.e., Greece, Iran, Turkey) and Northern/Western European (i.e., Finland, Great Britain, The Netherlands) countries and to identify factors related to these differences. We conducted seven sub-studies in which I applied a traffic culture framework, including a multi-level approach, to traffic safety. We used aggregated level data (national statistics), surveys among drivers, and data on traffic accidents and fatalities in the analyses. In the first study, we investigated the influence of macro level factors (i.e., economic, societal, and cultural) on traffic safety across countries. The results showed that a high GNP per capita and conservatism correlated with a low number of traffic fatalities, whereas a high degree of uncertainty avoidance, neuroticism, and egalitarianism correlated with a high number of traffic fatalities. In the second, third, and fourth studies, we examined whether the conceptualisation of road user characteristics (i.e., driver behaviour and performance) varied across traffic cultures and how these factors determined overall safety, and the differences between countries in traffic safety. The results showed that the factorial agreement for driver behaviour (i.e., aggressive driving) and performance (i.e., safety skills) was unsatisfactory in Greece, Iran, and Turkey, where the lack of social tolerance and interpersonal aggressive violations seem to be important characteristics of driving. In addition, we found that driver behaviour (i.e., aggressive violations and errors) mediated the relationship between culture/country and accidents. Besides, drivers from "dangerous" Southern European countries and Iran scored higher on aggressive violations and errors than did drivers from "safe" Northern European countries. However, "speeding" appeared to be a "pan-cultural" problem in traffic. Similarly, aggressive driving seems largely depend on road users' interactions and drivers' interpretation (i.e., cognitive biases) of the behaviour of others in every country involved in the study. Moreover, in all countries, a risky general driving style was mostly related to being young and male. The results of the fifth and sixth studies showed that among young Turkish drivers, gender stereotypes (i.e., masculinity and femininity) greatly influence driver behaviour and performance. Feminine drivers were safety-oriented whereas masculine drivers were skill-oriented and risky drivers. Since everyday driving tasks involve not only erroneous (i.e., risky or dangerous driving) or correct performance (i.e., normal habitual driving), but also "positive" driver behaviours, we developed a reliable scale for measuring "positive" driver behaviours among Turkish drivers in the seventh study. Consequently, I revised Reason's model [Reason, J. T., 1990. Human error. Cambridge University Press: New York] of aberrant driver behaviour to represent a general driving style, including all possible intentional behaviours in traffic while evaluating the differences between countries in traffic safety. The results emphasise the importance of economic, societal and cultural factors, general driving style and skills, which are related to exposure, cognitive biases as well as age, sex, and gender, in differences between countries in traffic safety.

Digital elevation model error in terrain analysis

Digital elevation models (DEMs) have been an important topic in geography and surveying sciences for decades due to their geomorphological importance as the reference surface for gravita-tion-driven material flow, as well as the wide range of uses and applications. When DEM is used in terrain analysis, for example in automatic drainage basin delineation, errors of the model collect in the analysis results. Investigation of this phenomenon is known as error propagation analysis, which has a direct influence on the decision-making process based on interpretations and applications of terrain analysis. Additionally, it may have an indirect influence on data acquisition and the DEM generation. The focus of the thesis was on the fine toposcale DEMs, which are typically represented in a 5-50m grid and used in the application scale 1:10 000-1:50 000. The thesis presents a three-step framework for investigating error propagation in DEM-based terrain analysis. The framework includes methods for visualising the morphological gross errors of DEMs, exploring the statistical and spatial characteristics of the DEM error, making analytical and simulation-based error propagation analysis and interpreting the error propagation analysis results. The DEM error model was built using geostatistical methods. The results show that appropriate and exhaustive reporting of various aspects of fine toposcale DEM error is a complex task. This is due to the high number of outliers in the error distribution and morphological gross errors, which are detectable with presented visualisation methods. In ad-dition, the use of global characterisation of DEM error is a gross generalisation of reality due to the small extent of the areas in which the decision of stationarity is not violated. This was shown using exhaustive high-quality reference DEM based on airborne laser scanning and local semivariogram analysis. The error propagation analysis revealed that, as expected, an increase in the DEM vertical error will increase the error in surface derivatives. However, contrary to expectations, the spatial au-tocorrelation of the model appears to have varying effects on the error propagation analysis depend-ing on the application. The use of a spatially uncorrelated DEM error model has been considered as a 'worst-case scenario', but this opinion is now challenged because none of the DEM derivatives investigated in the study had maximum variation with spatially uncorrelated random error. Sig-nificant performance improvement was achieved in simulation-based error propagation analysis by applying process convolution in generating realisations of the DEM error model. In addition, typology of uncertainty in drainage basin delineations is presented.

Modeling Asymmetries in Financial Data with Multiplicative Error Models

This thesis addresses modeling of financial time series, especially stock market returns and daily price ranges. Modeling data of this kind can be approached with so-called multiplicative error models (MEM). These models nest several well known time series models such as GARCH, ACD and CARR models. They are able to capture many well established features of financial time series including volatility clustering and leptokurtosis. In contrast to these phenomena, different kinds of asymmetries have received relatively little attention in the existing literature. In this thesis asymmetries arise from various sources. They are observed in both conditional and unconditional distributions, for variables with non-negative values and for variables that have values on the real line. In the multivariate context asymmetries can be observed in the marginal distributions as well as in the relationships of the variables modeled. New methods for all these cases are proposed. Chapter 2 considers GARCH models and modeling of returns of two stock market indices. The chapter introduces the so-called generalized hyperbolic (GH) GARCH model to account for asymmetries in both conditional and unconditional distribution. In particular, two special cases of the GARCH-GH model which describe the data most accurately are proposed. They are found to improve the fit of the model when compared to symmetric GARCH models. The advantages of accounting for asymmetries are also observed through Value-at-Risk applications. Both theoretical and empirical contributions are provided in Chapter 3 of the thesis. In this chapter the so-called mixture conditional autoregressive range (MCARR) model is introduced, examined and applied to daily price ranges of the Hang Seng Index. The conditions for the strict and weak stationarity of the model as well as an expression for the autocorrelation function are obtained by writing the MCARR model as a first order autoregressive process with random coefficients. The chapter also introduces inverse gamma (IG) distribution to CARR models. The advantages of CARR-IG and MCARR-IG specifications over conventional CARR models are found in the empirical application both in- and out-of-sample. Chapter 4 discusses the simultaneous modeling of absolute returns and daily price ranges. In this part of the thesis a vector multiplicative error model (VMEM) with asymmetric Gumbel copula is found to provide substantial benefits over the existing VMEM models based on elliptical copulas. The proposed specification is able to capture the highly asymmetric dependence of the modeled variables thereby improving the performance of the model considerably. The economic significance of the results obtained is established when the information content of the volatility forecasts derived is examined.

Preoperative visual acuity of cataract patients. Repeatability of visual acuity and refractive error measurements in clinical settings

Visual acuities at the time of referral and on the day before surgery were compared in 124 patients operated on for cataract in Vaasa Central Hospital, Finland. Preoperative visual acuity and the occurrence of ocular and general disease were compared in samples of consecutive cataract extractions performed in 1982, 1985, 1990, 1995 and 2000 in two hospitals in the Vaasa region in Finland. The repeatability and standard deviation of random measurement error in visual acuity and refractive error determination in a clinical environment in cataractous, pseudophakic and healthy eyes were estimated by re-examining visual acuity and refractive error of patients referred to cataract surgery or consultation by ophthalmic professionals. Altogether 99 eyes of 99 persons (41 cataractous, 36 pseudophakic and 22 healthy eyes) with a visual acuity range of Snellen 0.3 to 1.3 (0.52 to -0.11 logMAR) were examined. During an average waiting time of 13 months, visual acuity in the study eye decreased from 0.68 logMAR to 0.96 logMAR (from 0.2 to 0.1 in Snellen decimal values). The average decrease in vision was 0.27 logMAR per year. In the fastest quartile, visual acuity change per year was 0.75 logMAR, and in the second fastest 0.29 logMAR, the third and fourth quartiles were virtually unaffected. From 1982 to 2000, the incidence of cataract surgery increased from 1.0 to 7.2 operations per 1000 inhabitants per year in the Vaasa region. The average preoperative visual acuity in the operated eye increased by 0.85 logMAR (in decimal values from 0.03to 0.2) and in the better eye 0.27 logMAR (in decimal values from 0.23 to 0.43) over this period. The proportion of patients profoundly visually handicapped (VA in the better eye <0.1) before the operation fell from 15% to 4%, and that of patients less profoundly visually handicapped (VA in the better eye 0.1 to <0.3) from 47% to 15%. The repeatability visual acuity measurement estimated as a coefficient of repeatability for all 99 eyes was ±0.18 logMAR, and the standard deviation of measurement error was 0.06 logMAR. Eyes with the lowest visual acuity (0.3-0.45) had the largest variability, the coefficient of repeatability values being ±0.24 logMAR and eyes with a visual acuity of 0.7 or better had the smallest, ±0.12 logMAR. The repeatability of refractive error measurement was studied in the same patient material as the repeatability of visual acuity. Differences between measurements 1 and 2 were calculated as three-dimensional vector values and spherical equivalents and expressed by coefficients of repeatability. Coefficients of repeatability for all eyes for vertical, torsional and horisontal vectors were ±0.74D, ±0.34D and ±0.93D, respectively, and for spherical equivalent for all eyes ±0.74D. Eyes with lower visual acuity (0.3-0.45) had larger variability in vector and spherical equivalent values (±1.14), but the difference between visual acuity groups was not statistically significant. The difference in the mean defocus equivalent between measurements 1 and 2 was, however, significantly greater in the lower visual acuity group. If a change of ±0.5D (measured in defocus equivalents) is accepted as a basis for change of spectacles for eyes with good vision, the basis for eyes in the visual acuity range of 0.3 - 0.65 would be ±1D. Differences in repeated visual acuity measurements are partly explained by errors in refractive error measurements.

Bootstrapping the Error Correction Model Cointegration Test

This paper is concerned with using the bootstrap to obtain improved critical values for the error correction model (ECM) cointegration test in dynamic models. In the paper we investigate the effects of dynamic specification on the size and power of the ECM cointegration test with bootstrap critical values. The results from a Monte Carlo study show that the size of the bootstrap ECM cointegration test is close to the nominal significance level. We find that overspecification of the lag length results in a loss of power. Underspecification of the lag length results in size distortion. The performance of the bootstrap ECM cointegration test deteriorates if the correct lag length is not used in the ECM. The bootstrap ECM cointegration test is therefore not robust to model misspecification.

Finite-State Spell-Checking with Weighted Language and Error Models

In this paper we present simple methods for construction and evaluation of finite-state spell-checking tools using an existing finite-state lexical automaton, freely available finite-state tools and Internet corpora acquired from projects such as Wikipedia. As an example, we use a freely available open-source implementation of Finnish morphology, made with traditional finite-state morphology tools, and demonstrate rapid building of Northern Sámi and English spell checkers from tools and resources available from the Internet.