Detecting Earnings Management Using Neural Networks

Detecting Earnings Management Using Neural Networks. Trying to balance between relevant and reliable accounting data, generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) allow, to some extent, the company management to use their judgment and to make subjective assessments when preparing financial statements. The opportunistic use of the discretion in financial reporting is called earnings management. There have been a considerable number of suggestions of methods for detecting accrual based earnings management. A majority of these methods are based on linear regression. The problem with using linear regression is that a linear relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables must be assumed. However, previous research has shown that the relationship between accruals and some of the explanatory variables, such as company performance, is non-linear. An alternative to linear regression, which can handle non-linear relationships, is neural networks. The type of neural network used in this study is the feed-forward back-propagation neural network. Three neural network-based models are compared with four commonly used linear regression-based earnings management detection models. All seven models are based on the earnings management detection model presented by Jones (1991). The performance of the models is assessed in three steps. First, a random data set of companies is used. Second, the discretionary accruals from the random data set are ranked according to six different variables. The discretionary accruals in the highest and lowest quartiles for these six variables are then compared. Third, a data set containing simulated earnings management is used. Both expense and revenue manipulation ranging between -5% and 5% of lagged total assets is simulated. Furthermore, two neural network-based models and two linear regression-based models are used with a data set containing financial statement data from 110 failed companies. Overall, the results show that the linear regression-based models, except for the model using a piecewise linear approach, produce biased estimates of discretionary accruals. The neural network-based model with the original Jones model variables and the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable, however, perform well in all three steps. Especially in the second step, where the highest and lowest quartiles of ranked discretionary accruals are examined, the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable outperforms the other models.

Essays on Earnings Management (summary section only)

There is much literature developing theories when and where earnings management occurs. Among the several possible motives driving earnings management behaviour in firms, this thesis focuses on motives that aim to influence the valuation of the firm. Earnings management that makes the firm look better than it really is may result in disappointment for the single investor and potentially leads to a welfare loss in society when the resource allocation is distorted. A more specific knowledge of the occurrence of earnings management supposedly increases the awareness of the investor and thus leads to better investments and increased welfare. This thesis contributes to the literature by increasing the knowledge as to where and when earnings management is likely to occur. More specifically, essay 1 adds to existing research connecting earnings management to IPOs and increases the knowledge in arguing that the tendency to manage earnings differs between the IPOs. Evidence is found that entrepreneur owned IPOs are more likely to be earnings managers than the institutionally owned ones. Essay 2 considers the reliability of quarterly earnings reports that precedes insider selling binges. The essay contributes by suggesting that earnings management is likely to occur before high insider selling. Essay 3 examines the widely studied phenomenon of income smoothing and investigates if income smoothing can be explained with proxies for information asymmetry. The essay argues that smoothing is more pervasive in private and smaller firms.

Essays on Corporate Governance and the Quality of Disclosed Earnings: Across Transitional Europe

A growing body of empirical research examines the structure and effectiveness of corporate governance systems around the world. An important insight from this literature is that corporate governance mechanisms address the excessive use of managerial discretionary powers to get private benefits by expropriating the value of shareholders. One possible way of expropriation is to reduce the quality of disclosed earnings by manipulating the financial statements. This lower quality of earnings should then be reflected by the stock price of firm according to value relevance theorem. Hence, instead of testing the direct effect of corporate governance on the firm’s market value, it is important to understand the causes of the lower quality of accounting earnings. This thesis contributes to the literature by increasing knowledge about the extent of the earnings management – measured as the extent of discretionary accruals in total disclosed earnings - and its determinants across the Transitional European countries. The thesis comprises of three essays of empirical analysis of which first two utilize the data of Russian listed firms whereas the third essay uses data from 10 European economies. More specifically, the first essay adds to existing research connecting earnings management to corporate governance. It testifies the impact of the Russian corporate governance reforms of 2002 on the quality of disclosed earnings in all publicly listed firms. This essay provides empirical evidence of the fact that the desired impact of reforms is not fully substantiated in Russia without proper enforcement. Instead, firm-level factors such as long-term capital investments and compliance with International financial reporting standards (IFRS) determine the quality of the earnings. The result presented in the essay support the notion proposed by Leuz et al. (2003) that the reforms aimed to bring transparency do not correspond to desired results in economies where investor protection is lower and legal enforcement is weak. The second essay focuses on the relationship between the internal-control mechanism such as the types and levels of ownership and the quality of disclosed earnings in Russia. The empirical analysis shows that the controlling shareholders in Russia use their powers to manipulate the reported performance in order to get private benefits of control. Comparatively, firms owned by the State have significantly better quality of disclosed earnings than other controllers such as oligarchs and foreign corporations. Interestingly, market performance of firms controlled by either State or oligarchs is better than widely held firms. The third essay provides useful evidence on the fact that both ownership structures and economic characteristics are important factors in determining the quality of disclosed earnings in three groups of countries in Europe. Evidence suggests that ownership structure is a more important determinant in developed and transparent countries, while economic determinants are important determinants in developing and transitional countries.

Kestävä kehitys globaalin ajan hyvinvointiyhteiskunnan haasteena

The objective of the dissertation was to determine the concept of sustainable development according to current understanding and to analyze the structuration of sustainable daily life and how it varies between different groups. The present dissertation is both a literature-based theoretical study and data-based empirical research. The theoretical framework of the study was a greated model of the Structuration of Sustainability in Everyday Life. The model is based on a synthesis of Giddens Theory of Structuration (1984), Spaargaren JA van Vliet's Theory of Consumption as Social Practices (2000) and principles of sustainable development. According to the model created, sustainable everyday life is generated in a context of internal and external factors compromising the interests of ecosystems, society and business. The literature used in the thesis included international and national statements on sustainable development and research into sustainability and the transition to sustainable societies. The data were collected at Helsinki Metropolia University of Applied Sciences. The discretionary sample consisted of students of social services (n = 210) and were collected using the semantic differential technique. The data were analyzed using quantitative and qualitative methods. The results showed that the value placed on ecological, economic and social sustainability increased with age. Activity in non governmental organizations was associated with the acceptance of sustainable development as a whole and especially with global responsibility. Women's everyday life promoted sustainability more than men´s. People living in Helsinki had more sustainable ways of living than those living in the surrounding municipalities because of greater recycling and the low importance given to ownership. Prefering vegetarian food turned out to be a real opportunity for a more sustainable way of living because there were few barriers identified. Contradictory human behavior occurred when advanced sustainable consumer were ready to risk their health. The importance of communality was high and it was considered an aspect of health. The most significant obstacles to sustainable development in daily life were high costs, lack of knowledge and busyness. Similar attitudes towards sustainable development translate into different people´s behavior, which indicates complexities of the behaviour change in the context of sustainable development. The role of non governmental organizations is significant in increasing global responsibility. Education presents an opportunity to increase sustainability, but there are challenges to face from system thinking and in understanding entities in a state of transition towards sustainable everyday life. The responsibility of policy makers is paramount because high costs create a barrier to a sustainable way of living. The implementation of the concept of sustainable development should be focused on the planetary ethics which cover humans, animals, plants and ecosystems. Keywords: Sustainable development, sustainable thinking, behaviour change  

Essays on macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy rules

Economic and Monetary Union can be characterised as a complicated set of legislation and institutions governing monetary and fiscal responsibilities. The measures of fiscal responsibility are to be guided by the Stability and Growth Pact, which sets rules for fiscal policy and makes a discretionary fiscal policy virtually impossible. To analyse the effects of the fiscal and monetary policy mix, we modified the New Keynesian framework to allow for supply effects of fiscal policy. We show that defining a supply-side channel for fiscal policy using an endogenous output gap changes the stabilising properties of monetary policy rules. The stability conditions are affected by fiscal policy, so that the dichotomy between active (passive) monetary policy and passive (active) fiscal policy as stabilising regimes does not hold, and it is possible to have an active monetary - active fiscal policy regime consistent with dynamical stability of the economy. We show that, if we take supply-side effects into ac-count, we get more persistent inflation and output reactions. We also show that the dichotomy does not hold for a variety of different fiscal policy rules based on government debt and budget deficit, using the tax smoothing hypothesis and formulating the tax rules as difference equations. The debt rule with active monetary policy results in indeterminacy, while the deficit rule produces a determinate solution with active monetary policy, even with active fiscal policy. The combination of fiscal requirements in a rule results in cyclical responses to shocks. The amplitude of the cycle is larger with more weight on debt than on deficit. Combining optimised monetary policy with fiscal policy rules means that, under a discretionary monetary policy, the fiscal policy regime affects the size of the inflation bias. We also show that commitment to an optimal monetary policy not only corrects the inflation bias but also increases the persistence of output reactions. With fiscal policy rules based on the deficit we can retain the tax smoothing hypothesis also in a sticky price model.

“Aivan sama vaikkei ne olis edes pelannut” – Jalkapallo elämyskulutuksen kohteena

Tutkielmassa tarkastellaan jalkapallon seuraamista elämyskuluttamisen näkökulmasta. Elämyskulutuksella tarkoitetaan tässä yhteydessä tapahtumia ja hetkiä, jolloin ihminen kokee tavallisuudesta poikkeavan ja mieleenpainuvan tunnetilan. Elämyksiä tarjoavat palvelut ovat lisänneet jatkuvasti suosiotaan, kun arjessa rationaalisuus ylikorostuu ja sille halutaan vastapainoa. Aihetta taustoitetaan elämysyhteiskunnan, yhteisöllisyyden ja kuluttajaheimojen käsitteiden avulla. Erityishuomion saavat kulttuuritapahtumat elämystuotteina, penkkiurheilu yhteiskunnallisena ilmiönä sekä erilaiset jalkapalloon liittyvät kulutustavat. Tutkielma on luonteeltaan fenomenologis-etnografinen kuvaileva tutkimus. Tutkimusmenetelminä on käytetty osallistuvaa havainnointia ja haastatteluita. Tutkimusperinteen mukaisesti ilmiön ymmärtäminen, kuvaaminen ja kirjoittaminen ovat tärkeässä osassa. Havainnointiaineisto on kerätty kolmessa eri tapahtumassa seuraamalla katsojien käyttäytymistä ja tunnelman syntymiseen vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Haastateltavat on valittu harkinnanvaraisesti jalkapalloa aktiivisesti seuraavista henkilöistä ja menetelmänä on käytetty avoimia teemahaastatteluita. Urheilun vetovoima ajanvietteenä perustuu vahvojen tunteiden herättämiseen, joten penkkiurheilu on elämyskulutusta puhtaimmillaan. Urheilu elämystuotteena on oivallinen, sillä sen lukuisten kulutustapojen lisäksi tapahtumat muodostavat päättymättömän jatkumon. Myös oman aineistoni perusteella osoittautui, että menneiden tapahtumien avulla ankkuroidutaan yhteisöön ja tulevien tapahtumien avulla pidetään innostusta yllä. Pettymysten hetkelläkään koukusta ei haluta irti, sillä jokainen kokemus lisää tunteita omaa urheilulajia ja yhteisöä kohtaan. Urheilutapahtumissa katsojan elämys syntyy subjektiivisen kokemuksen kautta, mutta yhteisö luo elämyksen toteutumisen välttämättömät edellytykset. Jalkapalloyleisöön kuuluvissa henkilöissä yhdistyvät halu kuulua ryhmään ja olla samaan aikaan sen ulkopuolella. Peliä voidaan tarkkailla itsekseen ja keskittyneesti suuren joukon keskellä tai hurrata muiden mukana. Aineistoni perusteella jalkapallofanin innostus pulppuaa kahdesta lähteestä: yhteisöllisyydestä ja kiinnostuksesta lajiin. Yhteisöllisyyden tunne syntyy kuulumisesta globaaliin jalkapalloyhteisöön, oman suosikkijoukkueen kannattajiin ja samaa lajia seuraavien kaverien muodostamaan lähipiiriin. Urheilullinen puoli innostuksesta syntyy kiinnostuksesta jalkapalloa kohtaan lajina, aktiivisesti seuratuista säännöllisistä tapahtumista ja oman joukkueen kannattamisesta. Jalkapallon seuraajiin teoria jatkuvasti muuttuvista uusyhteisöistä pätee melko huonosti, sillä lajille ja seuralle ollaan hyvin uskollisia. Faneille on tärkeää sitoutua pieneen lähiyhteisöön, jonka kanssa heillä on yhteinen historia ja mahdollisuus jakaa kokemuksia keskustelemalla ja muistelemalla.

The Enlightenment Idea of History as a Legitimation Tool of Kemalism in Turkey

The study analyzes the effort to build political legitimacy in the Republic of Turkey by ex-ploring a group of influential texts produced by Kemalist writers. The study explores how the Kemalist regime reproduced certain long-lasting enlightenment meta-narrative in its effort to build political legitimacy. Central in this process was a hegemonic representation of history, namely the interpretation of the Anatolian Resistance Struggle of 1919 1922 as a Turkish Revolution executing the enlightenment in the Turkish nation-state. The method employed in the study is contextualizing narratological analysis. The Kemalist texts are analyzed with a repertoire of concepts originally developed in the theory of narra-tive. By bringing these concepts together with epistemological foundations of historical sciences, the study creates a theoretical frame inside of which it is possible to highlight how initially very controversial historical representations in the end manage to construct long-lasting, emotionally and intellectually convincing bases of national identity for the secular middle classes in Turkey. The two most important explanatory concepts in this sense are di-egesis and implied reader. The diegesis refers to the ability of narrative representation to create an inherently credible story-world that works as the basis of national community. The implied reader refers to the process where a certain hegemonic narrative creates a formula of identification and a position through which any individual real-world reader of a story can step inside the narrative story-world and identify oneself as one of us of the national narra-tive. The study demonstrates that the Kemalist enlightenment meta-narrative created a group of narrative accruals which enabled generations of secular middle classes to internalize Kemalist ideology. In this sense, the narrative in question has not only worked as a tool utilized by the so-called Kemalist state-elite to justify its leadership, but has been internalized by various groups in Turkey, working as their genuine world-view. It is shown in the study that secular-ism must be seen as the core ingredient of these groups national identity. The study proposes that the enlightenment narrative reproduced in the Kemalist ideology had its origin in a simi-lar totalizing cultural narrative created in and for Europe. Currently this enlightenment project is challenged in Turkey by those who are in an attempt to give religion a greater role in Turkish society. The study argues that the enduring practice of legitimizing political power through the enlightenment meta-narrative has not only become a major factor contributing to social polarization in Turkey, but has also, in contradiction to the very real potentials for crit-ical approaches inherent in the Enlightenment tradition, crucially restricted the development of critical and rational modes of thinking in the Republic of Turkey.

Microfinance, Efficiency and Agricultural Production in Bangladesh

The objectives of this study were to make a detailed and systematic empirical analysis of microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers in Bangladesh and also examine how efficiency measures are influenced by the access to agricultural microfinance. In the empirical analysis, this study used both parametric and non-parametric frontier approaches to investigate differences in efficiency estimates between microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers. This thesis, based on five articles, applied data obtained from a survey of 360 farm households from north-central and north-western regions in Bangladesh. The methods used in this investigation involve stochastic frontier (SFA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) in addition to sample selectivity and limited dependent variable models. In article I, technical efficiency (TE) estimation and identification of its determinants were performed by applying an extended Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function. The results show that farm households had a mean TE of 83% with lower TE scores for the non-borrowers of agricultural microfinance. Addressing institutional policies regarding the consolidation of individual plots into farm units, ensuring access to microfinance, extension education for the farmers with longer farming experience are suggested to improve the TE of the farmers. In article II, the objective was to assess the effects of access to microfinance on household production and cost efficiency (CE) and to determine the efficiency differences between the microfinance participating and non-participating farms. In addition, a non-discretionary DEA model was applied to capture directly the influence of microfinance on farm households production and CE. The results suggested that under both pooled DEA models and non-discretionary DEA models, farmers with access to microfinance were significantly more efficient than their non-borrowing counterparts. Results also revealed that land fragmentation, family size, household wealth, on farm-training and off farm income share are the main determinants of inefficiency after effectively correcting for sample selection bias. In article III, the TE of traditional variety (TV) and high-yielding-variety (HYV) rice producers were estimated in addition to investigating the determinants of adoption rate of HYV rice. Furthermore, the role of TE as a potential determinant to explain the differences of adoption rate of HYV rice among the farmers was assessed. The results indicated that in spite of its much higher yield potential, HYV rice production was associated with lower TE and had a greater variability in yield. It was also found that TE had a significant positive influence on the adoption rates of HYV rice. In article IV, we estimated profit efficiency (PE) and profit-loss between microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers by a sample selection framework, which provided a general framework for testing and taking into account the sample selection in the stochastic (profit) frontier function analysis. After effectively correcting for selectivity bias, the mean PE of the microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers were estimated at 68% and 52% respectively. This suggested that a considerable share of profits were lost due to profit inefficiencies in rice production. The results also demonstrated that access to microfinance contributes significantly to increasing PE and reducing profit-loss per hectare land. In article V, the effects of credit constraints on TE, allocative efficiency (AE) and CE were assessed while adequately controlling for sample selection bias. The confidence intervals were determined by the bootstrap method for both samples. The results indicated that differences in average efficiency scores of credit constrained and unconstrained farms were not statistically significant although the average efficiencies tended to be higher in the group of unconstrained farms. After effectively correcting for selectivity bias, household experience, number of dependents, off-farm income, farm size, access to on farm training and yearly savings were found to be the main determinants of inefficiencies. In general, the results of the study revealed the existence substantial technical, allocative, economic inefficiencies and also considerable profit inefficiencies. The results of the study suggested the need to streamline agricultural microfinance by the microfinance institutions (MFIs), donor agencies and government at all tiers. Moreover, formulating policies that ensure greater access to agricultural microfinance to the smallholder farmers on a sustainable basis in the study areas to enhance productivity and efficiency has been recommended. Key Words: Technical, allocative, economic efficiency, DEA, Non-discretionary DEA, selection bias, bootstrapping, microfinance, Bangladesh.