Bayesian Inference for Retrospective Population Genetics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Genetics, the science of heredity and variation in living organisms, has a central role in medicine, in breeding crops and livestock, and in studying fundamental topics of biological sciences such as evolution and cell functioning. Currently the field of genetics is under a rapid development because of the recent advances in technologies by which molecular data can be obtained from living organisms. In order that most information from such data can be extracted, the analyses need to be carried out using statistical models that are tailored to take account of the particular genetic processes. In this thesis we formulate and analyze Bayesian models for genetic marker data of contemporary individuals. The major focus is on the modeling of the unobserved recent ancestry of the sampled individuals (say, for tens of generations or so), which is carried out by using explicit probabilistic reconstructions of the pedigree structures accompanied by the gene flows at the marker loci. For such a recent history, the recombination process is the major genetic force that shapes the genomes of the individuals, and it is included in the model by assuming that the recombination fractions between the adjacent markers are known. The posterior distribution of the unobserved history of the individuals is studied conditionally on the observed marker data by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The example analyses consider estimation of the population structure, relatedness structure (both at the level of whole genomes as well as at each marker separately), and haplotype configurations. For situations where the pedigree structure is partially known, an algorithm to create an initial state for the MCMC algorithm is given. Furthermore, the thesis includes an extension of the model for the recent genetic history to situations where also a quantitative phenotype has been measured from the contemporary individuals. In that case the goal is to identify positions on the genome that affect the observed phenotypic values. This task is carried out within the Bayesian framework, where the number and the relative effects of the quantitative trait loci are treated as random variables whose posterior distribution is studied conditionally on the observed genetic and phenotypic data. In addition, the thesis contains an extension of a widely-used haplotyping method, the PHASE algorithm, to settings where genetic material from several individuals has been pooled together, and the allele frequencies of each pool are determined in a single genotyping.

Mathematical Aspects of Financial Markets with Frictions

Frictions are factors that hinder trading of securities in financial markets. Typical frictions include limited market depth, transaction costs, lack of infinite divisibility of securities, and taxes. Conventional models used in mathematical finance often gloss over these issues, which affect almost all financial markets, by arguing that the impact of frictions is negligible and, consequently, the frictionless models are valid approximations. This dissertation consists of three research papers, which are related to the study of the validity of such approximations in two distinct modeling problems. Models of price dynamics that are based on diffusion processes, i.e., continuous strong Markov processes, are widely used in the frictionless scenario. The first paper establishes that diffusion models can indeed be understood as approximations of price dynamics in markets with frictions. This is achieved by introducing an agent-based model of a financial market where finitely many agents trade a financial security, the price of which evolves according to price impacts generated by trades. It is shown that, if the number of agents is large, then under certain assumptions the price process of security, which is a pure-jump process, can be approximated by a one-dimensional diffusion process. In a slightly extended model, in which agents may exhibit herd behavior, the approximating diffusion model turns out to be a stochastic volatility model. Finally, it is shown that when agents' tendency to herd is strong, logarithmic returns in the approximating stochastic volatility model are heavy-tailed. The remaining papers are related to no-arbitrage criteria and superhedging in continuous-time option pricing models under small-transaction-cost asymptotics. Guasoni, Rásonyi, and Schachermayer have recently shown that, in such a setting, any financial security admits no arbitrage opportunities and there exist no feasible superhedging strategies for European call and put options written on it, as long as its price process is continuous and has the so-called conditional full support (CFS) property. Motivated by this result, CFS is established for certain stochastic integrals and a subclass of Brownian semistationary processes in the two papers. As a consequence, a wide range of possibly non-Markovian local and stochastic volatility models have the CFS property.

Hedging Options with Different Time Units in the Pricing Models

This study examined the effects of the Greeks of the options and the trading results of delta hedging strategies, with three different time units or option-pricing models. These time units were calendar time, trading time and continuous time using discrete approximation (CTDA) time. The CTDA time model is a pricing model, that among others accounts for intraday and weekend, patterns in volatility. For the CTDA time model some additional theta measures, which were believed to be usable in trading, were developed. The study appears to verify that there were differences in the Greeks with different time units. It also revealed that these differences influence the delta hedging of options or portfolios. Although it is difficult to say anything about which is the most usable of the different time models, as this much depends on the traders view of the passing of time, different market conditions and different portfolios, the CTDA time model can be viewed as an attractive alternative.

Markov random fields and spatial smoothing in improving of forest inventory estimates

Markov random fields (MRF) are popular in image processing applications to describe spatial dependencies between image units. Here, we take a look at the theory and the models of MRFs with an application to improve forest inventory estimates. Typically, autocorrelation between study units is a nuisance in statistical inference, but we take an advantage of the dependencies to smooth noisy measurements by borrowing information from the neighbouring units. We build a stochastic spatial model, which we estimate with a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The smooth values are validated against another data set increasing our confidence that the estimates are more accurate than the originals.

Genomic and functional profiling of gastric cancer

Helicobacter pylori infection is a risk factor for gastric cancer, which is a major health issue worldwide. Gastric cancer has a poor prognosis due to the unnoticeable progression of the disease and surgery is the only available treatment in gastric cancer. Therefore, gastric cancer patients would greatly benefit from identifying biomarker genes that would improve diagnostic and prognostic prediction and provide targets for molecular therapies. DNA copy number amplifications are the hallmarks of cancers in various anatomical locations. Mechanisms of amplification predict that DNA double-strand breaks occur at the margins of the amplified region. The first objective of this thesis was to identify the genes that were differentially expressed in H. pylori infection as well as the transcription factors and signal transduction pathways that were associated with the gene expression changes. The second objective was to identify putative biomarker genes in gastric cancer with correlated expression and copy number, and the last objective was to characterize cancers based on DNA copy number amplifications. DNA microarrays, an in vitro model and real-time polymerase chain reaction were used to measure gene expression changes in H. pylori infected AGS cells. In order to identify the transcription factors and signal transduction pathways that were activated after H. pylori infection, gene expression profiling data from the H. pylori experiments and a bioinformatics approach accompanied by experimental validation were used. Genome-wide expression and copy number microarray analysis of clinical gastric cancer samples and immunohistochemistry on tissue microarray were used to identify putative gastric cancer genes. Data mining and machine learning techniques were applied to study amplifications in a cross-section of cancers. FOS and various stress response genes were regulated by H. pylori infection. H. pylori regulated genes were enriched in the chromosomal regions that are frequently changed in gastric cancer, suggesting that molecular pathways of gastric cancer and premalignant H. pylori infection that induces gastritis are interconnected. 16 transcription factors were identified as being associated with H. pylori infection induced changes in gene expression. NF-κB transcription factor and p50 and p65 subunits were verified using elecrophoretic mobility shift assays. ERBB2 and other genes located in 17q12- q21 were found to be up-regulated in association with copy number amplification in gastric cancer. Cancers with similar cell type and origin clustered together based on the genomic localization of the amplifications. Cancer genes and large genes were co-localized with amplified regions and fragile sites, telomeres, centromeres and light chromosome bands were enriched at the amplification boundaries. H. pylori activated transcription factors and signal transduction pathways function in cellular mechanisms that might be capable of promoting carcinogenesis of the stomach. Intestinal and diffuse type gastric cancers showed distinct molecular genetic profiles. Integration of gene expression and copy number microarray data allowed the identification of genes that might be involved in gastric carcinogenesis and have clinical relevance. Gene amplifications were demonstrated to be non-random genomic instabilities. Cell lineage, properties of precursor stem cells, tissue microenvironment and genomic map localization of specific oncogenes define the site specificity of DNA amplifications, whereas labile genomic features define the structures of amplicons. These conclusions suggest that the definition of genomic changes in cancer is based on the interplay between the cancer cell and the tumor microenvironment.

Reconstructions of past climates from documentary and natural sources in Finland since the 18th century

In this paper both documentary and natural proxy data have been used to improve the accuracy of palaeoclimatic knowledge in Finland since the 18th century. Early meteorological observations from Turku (1748-1800) were analyzed first as a potential source of climate variability. The reliability of the calculated mean temperatures was evaluated by comparing them with those of contemporary temperature records from Stockholm, St. Petersburg and Uppsala. The resulting monthly, seasonal and yearly mean temperatures from 1748 to 1800 were compared with the present day mean values (1961-1990): the comparison suggests that the winters of the period 1749-1800 were 0.8 ºC colder than today, while the summers were 0.4 ºC warmer. Over the same period, springs were 0.9 ºC and autumns 0.1 ºC colder than today. Despite their uncertainties when compared with modern meteorological data, early temperature measurements offer direct and daily information about the weather for all months of the year, in contrast with other proxies. Secondly, early meteorological observations from Tornio (1737-1749) and Ylitornio (1792-1838) were used to study the temporal behaviour of the climate-tree growth relationship during the past three centuries in northern Finland. Analyses showed that the correlations between ring widths and mid-summer (July) temperatures did not vary significantly as a function of time. Early (June) and late summer (August) mean temperatures were secondary to mid-summer temperatures in controlling the radial growth. According the dataset used, there was no clear signature of temporally reduced sensitivity of Scots pine ring widths to mid-summer temperatures over the periods of early and modern meteorological observations. Thirdly, plant phenological data with tree-rings from south-west Finland since 1750 were examined as a palaeoclimate indicator. The information from the fragmentary, partly overlapping, partly nonsystematically biased plant phenological records of 14 different phenomena were combined into one continuous time series of phenological indices. The indices were found to be reliable indicators of the February to June temperature variations. In contrast, there was no correlation between the phenological indices and the precipitation data. Moreover, the correlations between the studied tree-rings and spring temperatures varied as a function of time and hence, their use in palaeoclimate reconstruction is questionable. The use of present tree-ring datasets for palaeoclimate purposes may become possible after the application of more sophisticated calibration methods. Climate variability since the 18th century is perhaps best seen in the fourth paper study of the multiproxy spring temperature reconstruction of south-west Finland. With the help of transfer functions, an attempt has been made to utilize both documentary and natural proxies. The reconstruction was verified with statistics showing a high degree of validity between the reconstructed and observed temperatures. According to the proxies and modern meteorological observations from Turku, springs have become warmer and have featured a warming trend since around the 1850s. Over the period of 1750 to around 1850, springs featured larger multidecadal low-frequency variability, as well as a smaller range of annual temperature variations. The coldest springtimes occurred around the 1840s and 1850s and the first decade of the 19th century. Particularly warm periods occurred in the 1760s, 1790s, 1820s, 1930s, 1970s and from 1987 onwards, although in this period cold springs occurred, such as the springs of 1994 and 1996. On the basis of the available material, long-term temperature changes have been related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (February-June).

Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

Bayesian analysis of community dynamics

Elucidating the mechanisms responsible for the patterns of species abundance, diversity, and distribution within and across ecological systems is a fundamental research focus in ecology. Species abundance patterns are shaped in a convoluted way by interplays between inter-/intra-specific interactions, environmental forcing, demographic stochasticity, and dispersal. Comprehensive models and suitable inferential and computational tools for teasing out these different factors are quite limited, even though such tools are critically needed to guide the implementation of management and conservation strategies, the efficacy of which rests on a realistic evaluation of the underlying mechanisms. This is even more so in the prevailing context of concerns over climate change progress and its potential impacts on ecosystems. This thesis utilized the flexible hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework in combination with the computer intensive methods known as Markov chain Monte Carlo, to develop methodologies for identifying and evaluating the factors that control the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. These methodologies were used to analyze data from a range of taxa: macro-moths (Lepidoptera), fish, crustaceans, birds, and rodents. Environmental stochasticity emerged as the most important driver of community dynamics, followed by density dependent regulation; the influence of inter-specific interactions on community-level variances was broadly minor. This thesis contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the structure and dynamics of ecological communities, by showing directly that environmental fluctuations rather than inter-specific competition dominate the dynamics of several systems. This finding emphasizes the need to better understand how species are affected by the environment and acknowledge species differences in their responses to environmental heterogeneity, if we are to effectively model and predict their dynamics (e.g. for management and conservation purposes). The thesis also proposes a model-based approach to integrating the niche and neutral perspectives on community structure and dynamics, making it possible for the relative importance of each category of factors to be evaluated in light of field data.

Multi-user resource-sharing problem for the Internet

In this thesis we study a series of multi-user resource-sharing problems for the Internet, which involve distribution of a common resource among participants of multi-user systems (servers or networks). We study concurrently accessible resources, which for end-users may be exclusively accessible or non-exclusively. For all kinds we suggest a separate algorithm or a modification of common reputation scheme. Every algorithm or method is studied from different perspectives: optimality of protocols, selfishness of end users, fairness of the protocol for end users. On the one hand the multifaceted analysis allows us to select the most suited protocols among a set of various available ones based on trade-offs of optima criteria. On the other hand, the future Internet predictions dictate new rules for the optimality we should take into account and new properties of the networks that cannot be neglected anymore. In this thesis we have studied new protocols for such resource-sharing problems as the backoff protocol, defense mechanisms against Denial-of-Service, fairness and confidentiality for users in overlay networks. For backoff protocol we present analysis of a general backoff scheme, where an optimization is applied to a general-view backoff function. It leads to an optimality condition for backoff protocols in both slot times and continuous time models. Additionally we present an extension for the backoff scheme in order to achieve fairness for the participants in an unfair environment, such as wireless signal strengths. Finally, for the backoff algorithm we suggest a reputation scheme that deals with misbehaving nodes. For the next problem -- denial-of-service attacks, we suggest two schemes that deal with the malicious behavior for two conditions: forged identities and unspoofed identities. For the first one we suggest a novel most-knocked-first-served algorithm, while for the latter we apply a reputation mechanism in order to restrict resource access for misbehaving nodes. Finally, we study the reputation scheme for the overlays and peer-to-peer networks, where resource is not placed on a common station, but spread across the network. The theoretical analysis suggests what behavior will be selected by the end station under such a reputation mechanism.

Effects of environmental variation on ecological and evolutionary dynamics

Environmental variation is a fact of life for all the species on earth: for any population of any particular species, the local environmental conditions are liable to vary in both time and space. In today's world, anthropogenic activity is causing habitat loss and fragmentation for many species, which may profoundly alter the characteristics of environmental variation in remaining habitat. Previous research indicates that, as habitat is lost, the spatial configuration of remaining habitat will increasingly affect the dynamics by which populations are governed. Through the use of mathematical models, this thesis asks how environmental variation interacts with species properties to influence population dynamics, local adaptation, and dispersal evolution. More specifically, we couple continuous-time continuous-space stochastic population dynamic models to landscape models. We manipulate environmental variation via parameters such as mean patch size, patch density, and patch longevity. Among other findings, we show that a mixture of high and low quality habitat is commonly better for a population than uniformly mediocre habitat. This conclusion is justified by purely ecological arguments, yet the positive effects of landscape heterogeneity may be enhanced further by local adaptation, and by the evolution of short-ranged dispersal. The predicted evolutionary responses to environmental variation are complex, however, since they involve numerous conflicting factors. We discuss why the species that have high levels of local adaptation within their ranges may not be the same species that benefit from local adaptation during range expansion. We show how habitat loss can lead to either increased or decreased selection for dispersal depending on the type of habitat and the manner in which it is lost. To study the models, we develop a recent analytical method, Perturbation expansion, to enable the incorporation of environmental variation. Within this context, we use two methods to address evolutionary dynamics: Adaptive dynamics, which assumes mutations occur infrequently so that the ecological and evolutionary timescales can be separated, and via Genotype distributions, which assume mutations are more frequent. The two approaches generally lead to similar predictions yet, exceptionally, we show how the evolutionary response of dispersal behaviour to habitat turnover may qualitatively depend on the mutation rate.

Functional genes and gene array analysis as tools for monitoring hydrocarbon biodegradation

Bioremediation, which is the exploitation of the intrinsic ability of environmental microbes to degrade and remove harmful compounds from nature, is considered to be an environmentally sustainable and cost-effective means for environmental clean-up. However, a comprehensive understanding of the biodegradation potential of microbial communities and their response to decontamination measures is required for the effective management of bioremediation processes. In this thesis, the potential to use hydrocarbon-degradative genes as indicators of aerobic hydrocarbon biodegradation was investigated. Small-scale functional gene macro- and microarrays targeting aliphatic, monoaromatic and low molecular weight polyaromatic hydrocarbon biodegradation were developed in order to simultaneously monitor the biodegradation of mixtures of hydrocarbons. The validity of the array analysis in monitoring hydrocarbon biodegradation was evaluated in microcosm studies and field-scale bioremediation processes by comparing the hybridization signal intensities to hydrocarbon mineralization, real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR), dot blot hybridization and both chemical and microbiological monitoring data. The results obtained by real-time PCR, dot blot hybridization and gene array analysis were in good agreement with hydrocarbon biodegradation in laboratory-scale microcosms. Mineralization of several hydrocarbons could be monitored simultaneously using gene array analysis. In the field-scale bioremediation processes, the detection and enumeration of hydrocarbon-degradative genes provided important additional information for process optimization and design. In creosote-contaminated groundwater, gene array analysis demonstrated that the aerobic biodegradation potential that was present at the site, but restrained under the oxygen-limited conditions, could be successfully stimulated with aeration and nutrient infiltration. During ex situ bioremediation of diesel oil- and lubrication oil-contaminated soil, the functional gene array analysis revealed inefficient hydrocarbon biodegradation, caused by poor aeration during composting. The functional gene array specifically detected upper and lower biodegradation pathways required for complete mineralization of hydrocarbons. Bacteria representing 1 % of the microbial community could be detected without prior PCR amplification. Molecular biological monitoring methods based on functional genes provide powerful tools for the development of more efficient remediation processes. The parallel detection of several functional genes using functional gene array analysis is an especially promising tool for monitoring the biodegradation of mixtures of hydrocarbons.

Cow's milk allergy and the development of tolerance

Aims: To gain insight on the immunological processes behind cow’s milk allergy (CMA) and the development of oral tolerance. To furthermore investigate the associations of HLA II and filaggrin genotypes with humoral responses to early oral antigens. Methods: The study population was from a cohort of 6209 healthy, full-term infants who in a double-blind randomized trial received supplementary feeding at maternity hospitals (mean duration 4 days): cow’s milk (CM) formula, extensively hydrolyzed whey formula or donor breast milk. Infants who developed CM associated symptoms that subsided during elimination diet (n=223) underwent an open oral CM challenge (at mean age 7 months). The challenge was negative in 112, and in 111 it confirmed CMA, which was IgE-mediated in 83. Patients with CMA were followed until recovery, and 94 of them participated in a follow-up study at age 8-9 years. We investigated serum samples at diagnosis (mean age 7 months, n=111), one year later (19 months, n=101) and at follow-up (8.6 years, n=85). At follow-up, also 76 children randomly selected from the original cohort and without CM associated symptoms were included. We measured CM specific IgE levels with UniCAP (Phadia, Uppsala, Sweden), and β-lactoglobulin, α-casein and ovalbumin specific IgA, IgG1, IgG4 and IgG levels with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in sera. We applied a microarray based immunoassay to measure the binding of IgE, IgG4 and IgA serum antibodies to sequential epitopes derived from five major CM proteins at the three time points in 11 patients with active IgE-mediated CMA at age 8-9 years and in 12 patients who had recovered from IgE-mediated CMA by age 3 years. We used bioinformatic methods to analyze the microarray data. We studied T cell expression profile in peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) samples from 57 children aged 5-12 years (median 8.3): 16 with active CMA, 20 who had recovered from CMA by age 3 years, 21 non-atopic control subjects. Following in vitro β-lactoglobulin stimulation, we measured the mRNA expression in PBMCs of 12 T-cell markers (T-bet, GATA-3, IFN-γ, CTLA4, IL-10, IL-16, TGF-β, FOXP3, Nfat-C2, TIM3, TIM4, STIM-1) with quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction, and the protein expression of CD4, CD25, CD127, FoxP3 with flow cytometry. To optimally distinguish the three study groups, we performed artificial neural networks with exhaustive search for all marker combinations. For genetic associations with specific humoral responses, we analyzed 14 HLA class II haplotypes, the PTPN22 1858 SNP (R620W allele) and 5 known filaggrin null mutations from blood samples of 87 patients with CMA and 76 control subjects (age 8.0-9.3 years). Results: High IgG and IgG4 levels to β-lactoglobulin and α-casein were associated with the HLA (DR15)-DQB1*0602 haplotype in patients with CMA, but not in control subjects. Conversely, (DR1/10)-DQB1*0501 was associated with lower IgG and IgG4 levels to these CM antigens, and to ovalbumin, most significantly among control subjects. Infants with IgE-mediated CMA had lower β -lactoglobulin and α-casein specific IgG1, IgG4 and IgG levels (p<0.05) at diagnosis than infants with non-IgE-mediated CMA or control subjects. When CMA persisted beyond age 8 years, CM specific IgE levels were higher at all three time points investigated and IgE epitope binding pattern remained stable (p<0.001) compared with recovery from CMA by age 3 years. Patients with persisting CMA at 8-9 years had lower serum IgA levels to β-lactoglobulin at diagnosis (p=0.01), and lower IgG4 levels to β-lactoglobulin (p=0.04) and α-casein (p=0.05) at follow-up compared with patients who recovered by age 3 years. In early recovery, signal of IgG4 epitope binding increased while that of IgE decreased over time, and binding patterns of IgE and IgG4 overlapped. In T cell expression profile in response to β –lactoglobulin, the combination of markers FoxP3, Nfat-C2, IL-16, GATA-3 distinguished patients with persisting CMA most accurately from patients who had become tolerant and from non-atopic subjects. FoxP3 expression at both RNA and protein level was higher in children with CMA compared with non-atopic children. Conclusions: Genetic factors (the HLA II genotype) are associated with humoral responses to early food allergens. High CM specific IgE levels predict persistence of CMA. Development of tolerance is associated with higher specific IgA and IgG4 levels and lower specific IgE levels, with decreased CM epitope binding by IgE and concurrent increase in corresponding epitope binding by IgG4. Both Th2 and Treg pathways are activated upon CM antigen stimulation in patients with CMA. In the clinical management of CMA, HLA II or filaggrin genotyping are not applicable, whereas the measurement of CM specific antibodies may assist in estimating the prognosis.

Numerical approaches to new particle formation and growth in the atmosphere

Aerosols impact the planet and our daily lives through various effects, perhaps most notably those related to their climatic and health-related consequences. While there are several primary particle sources, secondary new particle formation from precursor vapors is also known to be a frequent, global phenomenon. Nevertheless, the formation mechanism of new particles, as well as the vapors participating in the process, remain a mystery. This thesis consists of studies on new particle formation specifically from the point of view of numerical modeling. A dependence of formation rate of 3 nm particles on the sulphuric acid concentration to the power of 1-2 has been observed. This suggests nucleation mechanism to be of first or second order with respect to the sulphuric acid concentration, in other words the mechanisms based on activation or kinetic collision of clusters. However, model studies have had difficulties in replicating the small exponents observed in nature. The work done in this thesis indicates that the exponents may be lowered by the participation of a co-condensing (and potentially nucleating) low-volatility organic vapor, or by increasing the assumed size of the critical clusters. On the other hand, the presented new and more accurate method for determining the exponent indicates high diurnal variability. Additionally, these studies included several semi-empirical nucleation rate parameterizations as well as a detailed investigation of the analysis used to determine the apparent particle formation rate. Due to their high proportion of the earth's surface area, oceans could potentially prove to be climatically significant sources of secondary particles. In the lack of marine observation data, new particle formation events in a coastal region were parameterized and studied. Since the formation mechanism is believed to be similar, the new parameterization was applied in a marine scenario. The work showed that marine CCN production is feasible in the presence of additional vapors contributing to particle growth. Finally, a new method to estimate concentrations of condensing organics was developed. The algorithm utilizes a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to determine the required combination of vapor concentrations by comparing a measured particle size distribution with one from an aerosol dynamics process model. The evaluation indicated excellent agreement against model data, and initial results with field data appear sound as well.

Evaluating Option Pricing Models

This study evaluates three different time units in option pricing: trading time, calendar time and continuous time using discrete approximations (CTDA). The CTDA-time model partitions the trading day into 30-minute intervals, where each interval is given a weight corresponding to the historical volatility in the respective interval. Furthermore, the non-trading volatility, both overnight and weekend volatility, is included in the first interval of the trading day in the CTDA model. The three models are tested on market prices. The results indicate that the trading-time model gives the best fit to market prices in line with the results of previous studies, but contrary to expectations under non-arbitrage option pricing. Under non-arbitrage pricing, the option premium should reflect the cost of hedging the expected volatility during the option’s remaining life. The study concludes that the historical patterns in volatility are not fully accounted for by the market, rather the market prices options closer to trading time.