Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Elämän tiede : Tutkimus lääketieteellisestä teknologiasta, vanhemmuudesta ja perimän hallinnasta

Doctoral dissertation work in sociology examines how human heredity became a scientific, political and a personal issue in the 20th century Finland. The study focuses on the institutionalisation of rationales and technologies concerning heredity, in the context of Finnish medicine and health care. The analysis concentrates specifically on the introduction and development of prenatal screening within maternity care. The data comprises of medical articles, policy documents and committee reports, as well as popular guidebooks and health magazines. The study commences with an analysis on the early 20th century discussions on racial hygiene. It ends with an analysis on the choices given to pregnant mothers and families at present. Freedom to choose, considered by geneticists and many others as a guarantee of the ethicality of medical applications, is presented in this study as a historically, politically and scientifically constructed issue. New medical testing methods have generated new possibilities of governing life itself. However, they have also created new ethical problems. Leaning on recent historical data, the study illustrates how medical risk rationales on heredity have been asserted by the medical profession into Finnish health care. It also depicts medical professions ambivalence between maintaining the patients autonomy and utilizing for example prenatal testing according to health policy interests. Personalized risk is discussed as a result of the empirical analysis. It is indicated that increasing risk awareness amongst the public, as well as offering choices, have had unintended consequences. According to doctors, present day parents often want to control risks more than what is considered justified or acceptable. People s hopes to anticipate the health and normality of their future children have exceeded the limits offered by medicine. Individualization of the government of heredity is closely linked to a process that is termed as depolitization. The concept refers to disembedding of medical genetics from its social contexts. Prenatal screening is regarded to be based on individual choice facilitated by neutral medical knowledge. However, prenatal screening within maternity care also has its basis in health policy aims and economical calculations. Methodological basis of the study lies in Michel Foucault s writings on the history of thought, as well as in science and technology studies.

Keho: Omaa sukupuolta koskevan tiedon ja ymmärryksen muotoutumisen perusta transsukupuolisilla

Body: The foundation for the formation of the knowledge and conception of gender identity among the transgendered The purpose of this study is to increase the understanding of the experiential formation of the knowledge and conception of one's gender and the foundation of that experience. This study is based on qualitative method and phenomenological approach. The research material consists: Herculine Barbin's Herculine Barbin, Christine Jorgensen's Christine Jorgensen. A Personal Autobiography Kate Bornstein's Gender Outlaw and Deirdre McCloskey's Crossing. A Memoir. The theoretical frame of reference for the study is Michel Henry's phenomenology of the body. The most important relations regarding the formation of the knowledge and conception of gender identity at which the sensing of the body is directed are human being's own subjective, organic and objective bodily form and other people and representatives of institutions. The concept of resistance reveals that gender division and the stereotypes and accountability related to it have dual character in culture. As a resistance they contain the potential for triggering the reflections about one's own gender. As an instrument they may function as means of exercising power and, as such, of monitoring gender normality. According to the research material the sources for the knowledge and conception of gender identity among the transgendered are literature, medical articles and books, internet, clerical and medical professionals, friends and relatives, and the peer group, that is, other transgendered. The transgendered are not only users of gender knowledge, but many of them are also active producers and contributors of gender knowledge and especially of knowledge about transgenderness. The problem is that this knowledge is unevenly distributed in society. The users of gender knowledge are mainly the transgendered, researchers of different disciplines specialized in gender issues, and medical and healthcare professionals specialized in gender adjustments. Therefore not everyone has the sufficient knowledge to support one's own or someone other's life as a gendered being in a society and ability to achieve gender autonomy. The quality of this knowledge is also rather narrow from the gender multiplicity point of view. The feeling of strangeness and the resulting experience of enstrangement have, like stereotypes, dual character in culture. They may be the reason for people's social disadvantage or exclusion, but the experiences may just as well be a resource for people's gender maturity and culture. As a cultural resource in gender issue this would mean innovativity in creating, upholding and changing cultural gender division, stereotypes and accounting customs. A transgendered may then become a liminal that aspires to change the limits related to resistances in society. Transgenderness is not only a medical issue but, first and foremost, an issue bearing upon human situation as a whole, or, in other words, related to the art of life. The subject of gender adjustment treatments is not only gender itself but the art of life as a gendered being. Transgenderness would then require multi-discipline co-operation.

Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk measure. This involves the use of probability theory and return distributions, which confronts the user with the problems of non-normality in the return distribution of the underlying asset. Here the hyperbolic distribution is used to describe one alternative for dealing with heavy tails. Results indicate that the information content of implied volatility is useful when predicting future large returns in the underlying asset. Further, the hyperbolic distribution provides a good fit to historical returns enabling a more accurate definition of statistical intervals and extreme events.

Evaluating the Predictability of the Volatility Smile Using Return Distributions

In this paper, we examine the predictability of observed volatility smiles in three major European index options markets, utilising the historical return distributions of the respective underlying assets. The analysis involves an application of the Black (1976) pricing model adjusted in accordance with the Jarrow-Rudd methodology as proposed in 1982. Thereby we adjust the expected future returns for the third and fourth central moments as these represent deviations from normality in the distributions of observed returns. Thus, they are considered one possible explanation to the existence of the smile. The obtained results indicate that the inclusion of the higher moments in the pricing model to some extent reduces the volatility smile, compared with the unadjusted Black-76 model. However, as the smile is partly a function of supply, demand, and liquidity, and as such intricate to model, this modification does not appear sufficient to fully capture the characteristics of the smile.