Early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Chinese and Indian adult population

Objectives of this study were to determine secular trends of diabetes prevalence in China and develop simple risk assessment algorithms for screening individuals with high-risk for diabetes or with undiagnosed diabetes in Chinese and Indian adults. Two consecutive population based surveys in Chinese and a prospective study in Mauritian Indians were involved in this study. The Chinese surveys were conducted in randomly selected populations aged 20-74 years in 2001-2002 (n=14 592) and 35-74 years in 2006 (n=4416). A two-step screening strategy using fasting capillary plasma glucose (FCG) as first-line screening test followed by standard 2-hour 75g oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) was applied to 12 436 individuals in 2001, while OGTTs were administrated to all participants together with FCG in 2006 and to 2156 subjects in 2002. In Mauritius, two consecutive population based surveys were conducted in Mauritian Indians aged 20-65 years in 1987 and 1992; 3094 Indians (1141 men), who were not diagnosed as diabetes at baseline, were reexamined with OGTTs in 1992 and/or 1998. Diabetes and pre-diabetes was defined following 2006 World Health Organization/ International Diabetes Federation Criteria. Age-standardized, as well as age- and sex-specific, prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes in adult Chinese was significantly increased from 12.2% and 15.4% in 2001 to 16.0% and 21.2% in 2006, respectively. A simple Chinese diabetes risk score was developed based on the data of Chinese survey 2001-2002 and validated in the population of survey 2006. The risk scores based on β coefficients derived from the final Logistic regression model ranged from 3 – 32. When the score was applied to the population of survey 2006, the area under operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score for screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.70), which was lower than the AUC of FCG (0.76 [0.74-0.79]), but similar to that of HbA1c (0.68 [0.65-0.71]). At a cut-off point of 14, the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score in screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.84 (0.81-0.88) and 0.40 (0.38-0.41). In Mauritian Indian, body mass index (BMI), waist girth, family history of diabetes (FH), and glucose was confirmed to be independent risk predictors for developing diabetes. Predicted probabilities for developing diabetes derived from a simple Cox regression model fitted with sex, FH, BMI and waist girth ranged from 0.05 to 0.64 in men and 0.03 to 0.49 in women. To predict the onset of diabetes, the AUC of the predicted probabilities was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.56-0.68) in men and 0.64(0.59-0.69) in women. At a cut-off point of 0.12, the sensitivity and specificity was 0.72(0.71-0.74) and 0.47(0.45-0.49) in men; and 0.77(0.75-0.78) and 0.50(0.48-0.52) in women, respectively. In conclusion, there was a rapid increase in prevalence of diabetes in Chinese adults from 2001 to 2006. The simple risk assessment algorithms based on age, obesity and family history of diabetes showed a moderate discrimination of diabetes from non-diabetes, which may be used as first line screening tool for diabetes and pre-diabetes, and for health promotion purpose in Chinese and Indians.

Anthropometric measures of obesity-their association with type 2 diabetes and hypertension across ethnic groups

Clinical trials have shown that weight reduction with lifestyles can delay or prevent diabetes and reduce blood pressure. An appropriate definition of obesity using anthropometric measures is useful in predicting diabetes and hypertension at the population level. However, there is debate on which of the measures of obesity is best or most strongly associated with diabetes and hypertension and on what are the optimal cut-off values for body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in this regard. The aims of the study were 1) to compare the strength of the association for undiagnosed or newly diagnosed diabetes (or hypertension) with anthropometric measures of obesity in people of Asian origin, 2) to detect ethnic differences in the association of undiagnosed diabetes with obesity, 3) to identify ethnic- and sex-specific change point values of BMI and WC for changes in the prevalence of diabetes and 4) to evaluate the ethnic-specific WC cutoff values proposed by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) in 2005 for central obesity. The study population comprised 28 435 men and 35 198 women, ≥ 25 years of age, from 39 cohorts participating in the DECODA and DECODE studies, including 5 Asian Indian (n = 13 537), 3 Mauritian Indian (n = 4505) and Mauritian Creole (n = 1075), 8 Chinese (n =10 801), 1 Filipino (n = 3841), 7 Japanese (n = 7934), 1 Mongolian (n = 1991), and 14 European (n = 20 979) studies. The prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and central obesity was estimated, using descriptive statistics, and the differences were determined with the χ2 test. The odds ratios (ORs) or  coefficients (from the logistic model) and hazard ratios (HRs, from the Cox model to interval censored data) for BMI, WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-stature ratio (WSR) were estimated for diabetes and hypertension. The differences between BMI and WC, WHR or WSR were compared, applying paired homogeneity tests (Wald statistics with 1 df). Hierarchical three-level Bayesian change point analysis, adjusting for age, was applied to identify the most likely cut-off/change point values for BMI and WC in association with previously undiagnosed diabetes. The ORs for diabetes in men (women) with BMI, WC, WHR and WSR were 1.52 (1.59), 1.54 (1.70), 1.53 (1.50) and 1.62 (1.70), respectively and the corresponding ORs for hypertension were 1.68 (1.55), 1.66 (1.51), 1.45 (1.28) and 1.63 (1.50). For diabetes the OR for BMI did not differ from that for WC or WHR, but was lower than that for WSR (p = 0.001) in men while in women the ORs were higher for WC and WSR than for BMI (both p < 0.05). Hypertension was more strongly associated with BMI than with WHR in men (p < 0.001) and most strongly with BMI than with WHR (p < 0.001), WSR (p < 0.01) and WC (p < 0.05) in women. The HRs for incidence of diabetes and hypertension did not differ between BMI and the other three central obesity measures in Mauritian Indians and Mauritian Creoles during follow-ups of 5, 6 and 11 years. The prevalence of diabetes was highest in Asian Indians, lowest in Europeans and intermediate in others, given the same BMI or WC category. The  coefficients for diabetes in BMI (kg/m2) were (men/women): 0.34/0.28, 0.41/0.43, 0.42/0.61, 0.36/0.59 and 0.33/0.49 for Asian Indian, Chinese, Japanese, Mauritian Indian and European (overall homogeneity test: p > 0.05 in men and p < 0.001 in women). Similar results were obtained in WC (cm). Asian Indian women had lower  coefficients than women of other ethnicities. The change points for BMI were 29.5, 25.6, 24.0, 24.0 and 21.5 in men and 29.4, 25.2, 24.9, 25.3 and 22.5 (kg/m2) in women of European, Chinese, Mauritian Indian, Japanese, and Asian Indian descent. The change points for WC were 100, 85, 79 and 82 cm in men and 91, 82, 82 and 76 cm in women of European, Chinese, Mauritian Indian, and Asian Indian. The prevalence of central obesity using the 2005 IDF definition was higher in Japanese men but lower in Japanese women than in their Asian counterparts. The prevalence of central obesity was 52 times higher in Japanese men but 0.8 times lower in Japanese women compared to the National Cholesterol Education Programme definition. The findings suggest that both BMI and WC predicted diabetes and hypertension equally well in all ethnic groups. At the same BMI or WC level, the prevalence of diabetes was highest in Asian Indians, lowest in Europeans and intermediate in others. Ethnic- and sex-specific change points of BMI and WC should be considered in setting diagnostic criteria for obesity to detect undiagnosed or newly diagnosed diabetes.

The structure of Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) stems in relation to wood properties of sawn timber

An important challenge in forest industry is to get the appropriate raw material out from the forests to the wood processing industry. Growth and stem reconstruction simulators are therefore increasingly integrated in industrial conversion simulators, for linking the properties of wooden products to the three-dimensional structure of stems and their growing conditions. Static simulators predict the wood properties from stem dimensions at the end of a growth simulation period, whereas in dynamic approaches, the structural components, e.g. branches, are incremented along with the growth processes. The dynamic approach can be applied to stem reconstruction by predicting the three-dimensional stem structure from external tree variables (i.e. age, height) as a result of growth to the current state. In this study, a dynamic growth simulator, PipeQual, and a stem reconstruction simulator, RetroSTEM, are adapted to Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) to predict the three-dimensional structure of stems (tapers, branchiness, wood basic density) over time such that both simulators can be integrated in a sawing simulator. The parameterisation of the PipeQual and RetroSTEM simulators for Norway spruce relied on the theoretically based description of tree structure developing in the growth process and following certain conservative structural regularities while allowing for plasticity in the crown development. The crown expressed both regularity and plasticity in its development, as the vertical foliage density peaked regularly at about 5 m from the stem apex, varying below that with tree age and dominance position (Study I). Conservative stem structure was characterized in terms of (1) the pipe ratios between foliage mass and branch and stem cross-sectional areas at crown base, (2) the allometric relationship between foliage mass and crown length, (3) mean branch length relative to crown length and (4) form coefficients in branches and stem (Study II). The pipe ratio between branch and stem cross-sectional area at crown base, and mean branch length relative to the crown length may differ in trees before and after canopy closure, but the variation should be further analysed in stands of different ages and densities with varying site fertilities and climates. The predictions of the PipeQual and RetroSTEM simulators were evaluated by comparing the simulated values to measured ones (Study III, IV). Both simulators predicted stem taper and branch diameter at the individual tree level with a small bias. RetroSTEM predictions of wood density were accurate. For focusing on even more accurate predictions of stem diameters and branchiness along the stem, both simulators should be further improved by revising the following aspects in the simulators: the relationship between foliage and stem sapwood area in the upper stem, the error source in branch sizes, the crown base development and the height growth models in RetroSTEM. In Study V, the RetroSTEM simulator was integrated in the InnoSIM sawing simulator, and according to the pilot simulations, this turned out to be an efficient tool for readily producing stand scale information about stem sizes and structure when approximating the available assortments of wood products.

Plant species diversity of buffer zones in agricultural landscapes: in search of determinants from the local to regional scale

Buffer zones are vegetated strip-edges of agricultural fields along watercourses. As linear habitats in agricultural ecosystems, buffer strips dominate and play a leading ecological role in many areas. This thesis focuses on the plant species diversity of the buffer zones in a Finnish agricultural landscape. The main objective of the present study is to identify the determinants of floral species diversity in arable buffer zones from local to regional levels. This study was conducted in a watershed area of a farmland landscape of southern Finland. The study area, Lepsämänjoki, is situated in the Nurmijärvi commune 30 km to the north of Helsinki, Finland. The biotope mosaics were mapped in GIS. A total of 59 buffer zones were surveyed, of which 29 buffer strips surveyed were also sampled by plot. Firstly, two diversity components (species richness and evenness) were investigated to determine whether the relationship between the two is equal and predictable. I found no correlation between species richness and evenness. The relationship between richness and evenness is unpredictable in a small-scale human-shaped ecosystem. Ordination and correlation analyses show that richness and evenness may result from different ecological processes, and thus should be considered separately. Species richness correlated negatively with phosphorus content, and species evenness correlated negatively with the ratio of organic carbon to total nitrogen in soil. The lack of a consistent pattern in the relationship between these two components may be due to site-specific variation in resource utilization by plant species. Within-habitat configuration (width, length, and area) were investigated to determine which is more effective for predicting species richness. More species per unit area increment could be obtained from widening the buffer strip than from lengthening it. The width of the strips is an effective determinant of plant species richness. The increase in species diversity with an increase in the width of buffer strips may be due to cross-sectional habitat gradients within the linear patches. This result can serve as a reference for policy makers, and has application value in agricultural management. In the framework of metacommunity theory, I found that both mass effect(connectivity) and species sorting (resource heterogeneity) were likely to explain species composition and diversity on a local and regional scale. The local and regional processes were interactively dominated by the degree to which dispersal perturbs local communities. In the lowly and intermediately connected regions, species sorting was of primary importance to explain species diversity, while the mass effect surpassed species sorting in the highly connected region. Increasing connectivity in communities containing high habitat heterogeneity can lead to the homogenization of local communities, and consequently, to lower regional diversity, while local species richness was unrelated to the habitat connectivity. Of all species found, Anthriscus sylvestris, Phalaris arundinacea, and Phleum pretense significantly responded to connectivity, and showed high abundance in the highly connected region. We suggest that these species may play a role in switching the force from local resources to regional connectivity shaping the community structure. On the landscape context level, the different responses of local species richness and evenness to landscape context were investigated. Seven landscape structural parameters served to indicate landscape context on five scales. On all scales but the smallest scales, the Shannon-Wiener diversity of land covers (H') correlated positively with the local richness. The factor (H') showed the highest correlation coefficients in species richness on the second largest scale. The edge density of arable field was the only predictor that correlated with species evenness on all scales, which showed the highest predictive power on the second smallest scale. The different predictive power of the factors on different scales showed a scaledependent relationship between the landscape context and local plant species diversity, and indicated that different ecological processes determine species richness and evenness. The local richness of species depends on a regional process on large scales, which may relate to the regional species pool, while species evenness depends on a fine- or coarse-grained farming system, which may relate to the patch quality of the habitats of field edges near the buffer strips. My results suggested some guidelines of species diversity conservation in the agricultural ecosystem. To maintain a high level of species diversity in the strips, a high level of phosphorus in strip soil should be avoided. Widening the strips is the most effective mean to improve species richness. Habitat connectivity is not always favorable to species diversity because increasing connectivity in communities containing high habitat heterogeneity can lead to the homogenization of local communities (beta diversity) and, consequently, to lower regional diversity. Overall, a synthesis of local and regional factors emerged as the model that best explain variations in plant species diversity. The studies also suggest that the effects of determinants on species diversity have a complex relationship with scale.

Agronomic challenges for organic crop husbandry

With respect to resource management and environmental impact, organic farming offers rationales for agricultural sustainability. However, agronomic productivity is usually higher with conventional farming. This work aimed at investigating two factors of major importance for the agronomic productivity of organic crop husbandry, nitrogen (N) supply through symbiotic N fixation (SNF) and weed occurrence. Perennial red clover-grass leys and spring cereal crops subjected to regular agricultural practices were studied on 34 organic farms located in the southern and the north-western coastal regions of Finland. Herbage growth, clover content as a proportion of the ley and extent of SNF in perennial leys, and the occurrence of weed species and weed-crop competition in spring cereal stands were related to climate conditions, soil properties, and management measures. The herbage accumulated from the first and the second cut of one- and two-year-old leys averaged 7.5 t DM ha-1 (SD ± 1.7 t DM ha-1); the clover content averaged 43.9% (SD ± 18.8%). Along with the clover content, herbage production decreased with ley age. Radiation use efficiency (RUE) correlated positively with clover proportion but despite low clover contents, three-year-old leys were still productive with regard to RUE. SNF in the accumulated annual growth of one- and two-year-old leys averaged 247.5 kg N ha-1 yr-1 (SD ± 114.4 kg N ha-1 yr-1). It was supposed that if red clover-grass leys constituted 40% of the rotation, then the mean N supply by SNF would be able to sustain two or three succeeding cereal crops (green manure and forage ley, respectively), yielding 3.0 to 4.0 t grain ha-1. Being a function of clover biomass, the SNF increased from the first to the second cut and thereafter declined with ley age. Coefficients of variation of clover contents (and SNF) between and within fields were around 50%, which was about twice as high as those of herbage production. The lower were the clover contents, the higher were the within-field variations of clover as a proportion of the ley. Low clover contents in one-year-old leys and increasing variability with ley age suggested that red clover growth was limited by poor establishment and poor overwintering. The proportions of clover in leys were lower and their variability was higher in the northwest than in the south. Soil properties, primarily texture and structure, had a major impact on clover proportion and herbage production, which largely explained regional differences in ley growth. Within-field variability of soil properties can be amended through site-specific measures, including drainage, liming, and applications of organic manures and mineral fertilizers. Overwintering and the persistence of leys can be improved by the choice of winter-hardy varieties, careful establishment and the appropriate harvest regime. Mean grain yields of spring cereal crops amounted to 3.2 t ha-1 in the south and 3.6 t ha-1 in the northwest. At 570 and 565 m-2 for the south and northwest respectively, mean weed densities did not differ between the regions, whereas the respective mean weed biomass of 697 and 1594 kg dry weight ha-1, respectively did differ. Weed abundance varied remarkably between single fields. The number of weed species was higher in the south than in the northwest. For example, Fumaria officinalis and Lamium spp. were found only in the south. Frequencies and abundances of Lapsana communis, Myosotis arvensis, Polygonum aviculare, Tripleurospermum inodorum, and Vicia spp. were higher in the south, whereas those of Elymus repens, Persicaria spp. and Spergula arvensis were higher in the northwest. The number of years since conversion to organic farming, i.e. long-term management, was one of the variables that explained the abundance of single weed species. E. repens was the weed species whose biomass increased most with the duration of organic farming. Another significant variable was crop biomass, which was affected by short-term management. The presence of different weed species was related to the duration of organic farming and to low crop yield. This finding demonstrated that it was not the organic farming regime per se, which resulted in high weed infestation and low yielding crops, but failures in the understanding and the management of organic farming systems. Successful weed control relies on farm- and field-specific long- and short-term management approaches. The agronomic productivity of ley and spring cereal crops managed by full-time farmers with an interest in organic farming was on the same level as of the mean for conventional farming. Given the many options for further improvements of the agronomic performance of organic arable systems, organic farming offers foundations for the development of sustainable agriculture. The main threat to the sustainability of farming in Finland, both conventional and organic, is the spatial separation of crop production and animal husbandry by region, along with the simplification of associated crop rotations.

Wind drift of snowfall between the radar volume and ground

This study evaluates how the advection of precipitation, or wind drift, between the radar volume and ground affects radar measurements of precipitation. Normally precipitation is assumed to fall vertically to the ground from the contributing volume, and thus the radar measurement represents the geographical location immediately below. In this study radar measurements are corrected using hydrometeor trajectories calculated from measured and forecasted winds, and the effect of trajectory-correction on the radar measurements is evaluated. Wind drift statistics for Finland are compiled using sounding data from two weather stations spanning two years. For each sounding, the hydrometeor phase at ground level is estimated and drift distance calculated using different originating level heights. This way the drift statistics are constructed as a function of range from radar and elevation angle. On average, wind drift of 1 km was exceeded at approximately 60 km distance, while drift of 10 km was exceeded at 100 km distance. Trajectories were calculated using model winds in order to produce a trajectory-corrected ground field from radar PPI images. It was found that at the upwind side from the radar the effective measuring area was reduced as some trajectories exited the radar volume scan. In the downwind side areas near the edge of the radar measuring area experience improved precipitation detection. The effect of trajectory-correction is most prominent in instant measurements and diminishes when accumulating over longer time periods. Furthermore, measurements of intensive and small scale precipitation patterns benefit most from wind drift correction. The contribution of wind drift on the uncertainty of estimated Ze (S) - relationship was studied by simulating the effect of different error sources to the uncertainty in the relationship coefficients a and b. The overall uncertainty was assumed to consist of systematic errors of both the radar and the gauge, as well as errors by turbulence at the gauge orifice and by wind drift of precipitation. The focus of the analysis is error associated with wind drift, which was determined by describing the spatial structure of the reflectivity field using spatial autocovariance (or variogram). This spatial structure was then used with calculated drift distances to estimate the variance in radar measurement produced by precipitation drift, relative to the other error sources. It was found that error by wind drift was of similar magnitude with error by turbulence at gauge orifice at all ranges from radar, with systematic errors of the instruments being a minor issue. The correction method presented in the study could be used in radar nowcasting products to improve the estimation of visibility and local precipitation intensities. The method however only considers pure snow, and for operational purposes some improvements are desirable, such as melting layer detection, VPR correction and taking solid state hydrometeor type into account, which would improve the estimation of vertical velocities of the hydrometeors.

Molecular Interactions Chlorin Assemblies and NMR Separations

Photosynthesis is a chemical process in which the energy of the light quanta is transformed into chemical energy. Chlorophyll (Chl) molecules play a key role in photosynthesis; they function in the antennae systems and in the photosynthetic reaction center where the primary charge separation (CS) takes place. Bio-inspired mimicry of the CS is an essential unit in dye-sensitized solar cells. Aim of this study was to design and develop electron donor-acceptor (EDA) pairs from Chls and fullerenes (C60) or carbon nanotubes (CNT). The supramolecular approach was chosen, as long synthetic sequences required by the covalent approach lead to long reaction schemes and low yields. Here, a π-interaction between soluble CNTs and Chl was used in EDA construction. Also, a beta-face selective two-point bound Chl-C60 EDA was introduced. In addition, the photophysical properties of the supramolecular EDA dyads were analyzed. In organic chemistry, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy is the most vital analytical technique in use. Multi-dimensional NMR experiments have enabled a structural analysis of complex natural products and proteins. However, in mixture analysis NMR is still facing difficulties. In many cases overlapping signals can t be resolved even with the help of multi-dimensional experiments. In this work, an NMR tool based on simple host-guest chemistry between analytes and macromolecules was developed. Diffusion ordered NMR spectroscopy (DOSY) measures the mobilities of compounds in an NMR sample. In a liquid state NMR sample, each of the analytes has a characteristic diffusion coefficient, which is proportional to the size of the analyte. With normal DOSY experiment, provided that the diffusion coefficients of the analytes differ enough, individual spectra of analytes can be extracted. When similar sized analytes differ chemically, an additive can be introduced into the sample. Since macromolecules in a liquid state NMR sample can be considered practically stationary, even faint supramolecular interaction can change the diffusion coefficient of the analyte sufficiently for a successful resolution in DOSY. In this thesis, polyvinylpyrrolidone and polyethyleneglycol enhanced DOSY NMR techniques, which enable mixture analysis of similar in size but chemically differing natural products, are introduced.

The kinetics and reactivity of several polyatomic free radicals in reactions with NO2, O2, Cl2, and HCl

In this thesis, the kinetics of several alkyl, halogenated alkyl, and alkenyl free radical reactions with NO2, O2, Cl2, and HCl reactants were studied over a wide temperature range in time resolved conditions. Laser photolysis photoionisation mass spectrometer coupled to a flow reactor was the experimental method employed and this thesis present the first measurements performed with the experimental system constructed. During this thesis a great amount of work was devoted to the designing, building, testing, and improving the experimental apparatus. Carbon-centred free radicals were generated by the pulsed 193 or 248 nm photolysis of suitable precursors along the tubular reactor. The kinetics was studied under pseudo-first-order conditions using either He or N2 buffer gas. The temperature and pressure ranges employed were between 190 and 500 K, and 0.5 45 torr, respectively. The possible role of heterogeneous wall reactions was investigated employing reactor tubes with different sizes, i.e. to significantly vary the surface to volume ratio. In this thesis, significant new contributions to the kinetics of carbon-centred free radical reactions with nitrogen dioxide were obtained. Altogether eight substituted alkyl (CH2Cl, CHCl2, CCl3, CH2I, CH2Br, CHBr2, CHBrCl, and CHBrCH3) and two alkenyl (C2H3, C3H3) free radical reactions with NO2 were investigated as a function of temperature. The bimolecular rate coefficients of all these reactions were observed to possess negative temperature dependencies, while pressure dependencies were not noticed for any of these reactions. Halogen substitution was observed to moderately reduce the reactivity of substituted alkyl radicals in the reaction with NO2, while the resonance stabilisation of the alkenyl radical lowers its reactivity with respect to NO2 only slightly. Two reactions relevant to atmospheric chemistry, CH2Br + O2 and CH2I + O2, were also investigated. It was noticed that while CH2Br + O2 reaction shows pronounced pressure dependence, characteristic of peroxy radical formation, no such dependence was observed for the CH2I + O2 reaction. Observed primary products of the CH2I + O2 reaction were the I-atom and the IO radical. Kinetics of CH3 + HCl, CD3 + HCl, CH3 + DCl, and CD3 + DCl reactions were also studied. While all these reactions possess positive activation energies, in contrast to the other systems investigated in this thesis, the CH3 + HCl and CD3 + HCl reactions show a non-linear temperature dependency on the Arrhenius plot. The reactivity of substituted methyl radicals toward NO2 was observed to increase with decreasing electron affinity of the radical. The same trend was observed for the reactions of substituted methyl radicals with Cl2. It is proposed that interactions of frontier orbitals are responsible to these observations and Frontier Orbital Theory could be used to explain the observed reactivity trends of these highly exothermic reactions having reactant-like transition states.

Modeling Asymmetries in Financial Data with Multiplicative Error Models

This thesis addresses modeling of financial time series, especially stock market returns and daily price ranges. Modeling data of this kind can be approached with so-called multiplicative error models (MEM). These models nest several well known time series models such as GARCH, ACD and CARR models. They are able to capture many well established features of financial time series including volatility clustering and leptokurtosis. In contrast to these phenomena, different kinds of asymmetries have received relatively little attention in the existing literature. In this thesis asymmetries arise from various sources. They are observed in both conditional and unconditional distributions, for variables with non-negative values and for variables that have values on the real line. In the multivariate context asymmetries can be observed in the marginal distributions as well as in the relationships of the variables modeled. New methods for all these cases are proposed. Chapter 2 considers GARCH models and modeling of returns of two stock market indices. The chapter introduces the so-called generalized hyperbolic (GH) GARCH model to account for asymmetries in both conditional and unconditional distribution. In particular, two special cases of the GARCH-GH model which describe the data most accurately are proposed. They are found to improve the fit of the model when compared to symmetric GARCH models. The advantages of accounting for asymmetries are also observed through Value-at-Risk applications. Both theoretical and empirical contributions are provided in Chapter 3 of the thesis. In this chapter the so-called mixture conditional autoregressive range (MCARR) model is introduced, examined and applied to daily price ranges of the Hang Seng Index. The conditions for the strict and weak stationarity of the model as well as an expression for the autocorrelation function are obtained by writing the MCARR model as a first order autoregressive process with random coefficients. The chapter also introduces inverse gamma (IG) distribution to CARR models. The advantages of CARR-IG and MCARR-IG specifications over conventional CARR models are found in the empirical application both in- and out-of-sample. Chapter 4 discusses the simultaneous modeling of absolute returns and daily price ranges. In this part of the thesis a vector multiplicative error model (VMEM) with asymmetric Gumbel copula is found to provide substantial benefits over the existing VMEM models based on elliptical copulas. The proposed specification is able to capture the highly asymmetric dependence of the modeled variables thereby improving the performance of the model considerably. The economic significance of the results obtained is established when the information content of the volatility forecasts derived is examined.

Preoperative visual acuity of cataract patients. Repeatability of visual acuity and refractive error measurements in clinical settings

Visual acuities at the time of referral and on the day before surgery were compared in 124 patients operated on for cataract in Vaasa Central Hospital, Finland. Preoperative visual acuity and the occurrence of ocular and general disease were compared in samples of consecutive cataract extractions performed in 1982, 1985, 1990, 1995 and 2000 in two hospitals in the Vaasa region in Finland. The repeatability and standard deviation of random measurement error in visual acuity and refractive error determination in a clinical environment in cataractous, pseudophakic and healthy eyes were estimated by re-examining visual acuity and refractive error of patients referred to cataract surgery or consultation by ophthalmic professionals. Altogether 99 eyes of 99 persons (41 cataractous, 36 pseudophakic and 22 healthy eyes) with a visual acuity range of Snellen 0.3 to 1.3 (0.52 to -0.11 logMAR) were examined. During an average waiting time of 13 months, visual acuity in the study eye decreased from 0.68 logMAR to 0.96 logMAR (from 0.2 to 0.1 in Snellen decimal values). The average decrease in vision was 0.27 logMAR per year. In the fastest quartile, visual acuity change per year was 0.75 logMAR, and in the second fastest 0.29 logMAR, the third and fourth quartiles were virtually unaffected. From 1982 to 2000, the incidence of cataract surgery increased from 1.0 to 7.2 operations per 1000 inhabitants per year in the Vaasa region. The average preoperative visual acuity in the operated eye increased by 0.85 logMAR (in decimal values from 0.03to 0.2) and in the better eye 0.27 logMAR (in decimal values from 0.23 to 0.43) over this period. The proportion of patients profoundly visually handicapped (VA in the better eye <0.1) before the operation fell from 15% to 4%, and that of patients less profoundly visually handicapped (VA in the better eye 0.1 to <0.3) from 47% to 15%. The repeatability visual acuity measurement estimated as a coefficient of repeatability for all 99 eyes was ±0.18 logMAR, and the standard deviation of measurement error was 0.06 logMAR. Eyes with the lowest visual acuity (0.3-0.45) had the largest variability, the coefficient of repeatability values being ±0.24 logMAR and eyes with a visual acuity of 0.7 or better had the smallest, ±0.12 logMAR. The repeatability of refractive error measurement was studied in the same patient material as the repeatability of visual acuity. Differences between measurements 1 and 2 were calculated as three-dimensional vector values and spherical equivalents and expressed by coefficients of repeatability. Coefficients of repeatability for all eyes for vertical, torsional and horisontal vectors were ±0.74D, ±0.34D and ±0.93D, respectively, and for spherical equivalent for all eyes ±0.74D. Eyes with lower visual acuity (0.3-0.45) had larger variability in vector and spherical equivalent values (±1.14), but the difference between visual acuity groups was not statistically significant. The difference in the mean defocus equivalent between measurements 1 and 2 was, however, significantly greater in the lower visual acuity group. If a change of ±0.5D (measured in defocus equivalents) is accepted as a basis for change of spectacles for eyes with good vision, the basis for eyes in the visual acuity range of 0.3 - 0.65 would be ±1D. Differences in repeated visual acuity measurements are partly explained by errors in refractive error measurements.

Carotid Stenosis, Endarterectomy, and the Brain : Brain microcirculation, diffusion, and cognitive function before and after carotid endarterectomy in patients with a high-grade carotid stenosis

Carotid atherosclerotic disease is a major cause of stroke, but it may remain clinically asymptomatic. The factors that turn the asymptomatic plaque into a symptomatic one are not fully understood, neither are the subtle effects that a high-grade carotid stenosis may have on the brain. The purpose of this study was to evaluate brain microcirculation, diffusion, and cognitive performance in patients with a high-grade stenosis in carotid artery, clinically either symptomatic or asymptomatic, undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA). We wanted to find out whether the stenoses are associated with diffusion or perfusion abnormalities of the brain or variation in the cognitive functioning of the patients, and to what extent the potential findings are affected by CEA, and compare the clinically symptomatic and asymptomatic subjects as well as strictly healthy controls. Coagulation and fibrinolytic parameters were compared with the rate microembolic signals (MES) in transcranial Doppler (TCD) and the macroscopic appearance of stenosing plaques in surgery. Patients (n=92) underwent CEA within the study. Blood samples pertaining to coagulation and fibrinolysis were collected before CEA, and the subjects underwent repeated TCD monitoring for MES. A subpopulation (n= 46) underwent MR imaging and repeated neuropsychological examination (preoperative, as well 4 and 100 days after CEA). In MRI, the average apparent diffusion coefficients were higher in the ipsilateral white matter (WM), and altough the interhemispheric difference was abolished by CEA, the levels remained higher than in controls. Symptomatic stenoses were associated with more sluggish perfusion especially in WM, and lower pulsatility of flow in TCD. All patients had poorer cognitive performance than healthy controls. Cognitive functions improved as expected by learning effect despite transient postoperative worsening in a few subjects. Improvement was greater in patients with deepest hypoperfusion, primarily in executive functions. Symptomatic stenoses were associated with higher hematocrit and tissue plasminogen activator antigen levels, as well as higher rate of MES and ulcerated plaques, and better postoperative improvement of vasoreactivity and pulsatility. In light of the findings, carotid stenosis is associated with differences in brain diffusion, perfusion, and cognition. The effect on diffusion in the ipsilateral WM, partially reversible by CEA, may be associated with WM degeneration. Asymptomatic and symptomatic subpopulations differ from each other in terms of hemodynamic adaptation and in their vascular physiological response to removal of stenosis. Although CEA may be associated with a transient cognitive decline, a true improvement of cognitive performance by CEA is possible in patients with the most pronounced perfusion deficits. Mediators of fibrinolysis and unfavourable hemorheology may contribute to the development of a symptomatic disease in patients with a high-grade stenosis.

Peripheral facial palsy : Grading, Etiology, and Melkersson-Rosenthal Syndrome

The objective of this study was to assess the utility of two subjective facial grading systems, to evaluate the etiologic role of human herpesviruses in peripheral facial palsy (FP), and to explore characteristics of Melkersson-Rosenthal syndrome (MRS). Intrarater repeatability and interrater agreement were assessed for Sunnybrook (SFGS) and House-Brackmann facial grading systems (H-B FGS). Eight video-recorded FP patients were graded in two sittings by 26 doctors. Repeatability for SFGS was from good to excellent and agreement between doctors from moderate to excellent by intraclass correlation coefficient and coefficient of repeatability. For H-B FGS, repeatability was from fair to good and agreement from poor to fair by agreement percentage and kappa coefficients. Because SFGS was at least as good in repeatability as H-B FGS and showed more reliable results in agreement between doctors, we encourage the use of SFGS over H-B FGS. Etiologic role of human herpesviruses in peripheral FP was studied by searching DNA of herpes simplex virus (HSV) -1 and -2, varicella-zoster virus (VZV), human herpesvirus (HHV) -6A, -6B, and -7, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), and cytomegalovirus (CMV) by PCR/microarray methods in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of 33 peripheral FP patients and 36 controls. Three patients and five controls had HHV-6 or -7 DNA in CSF. No DNA of HSV-1 or -2, VZV, EBV, or CMV was found. Detecting HHV-7 and dual HHV-6A and -6B DNA in CSF of FP patients is intriguing, but does not allow etiologic conclusions as such. These DNA findings in association with FP and the other diseases that they accompanied require further exploration. MRS is classically defined as a triad of recurrent labial or oro-facial edema, recurrent peripheral FP, and plicated tongue. All three signs are present in the minority of patients. Edema-dominated forms are more common in the literature, while MRS with FP has received little attention. The etiology and true incidence of MRS are unknown. Characteristics of MRS were evaluated at the Departments of Otorhinolaryngology and Dermatology focusing on patients with FP. There were 35 MRS patients, 20 with FP and they were mailed a questionnaire (17 answered) and were clinically examined (14 patients). At the Department of Otorhinolaryngology, every MRS patient had FP and half had the triad form of MRS. Two patients, whose tissue biopsies were taken during an acute edema episode, revealed nonnecrotizing granulomatous findings typical for MRS, the other without persisting edema and with symptoms for less than a year. A peripheral blood DNA was searched for gene mutations leading to UNC-93B protein deficiency predisposing to HSV-1 infections; no gene mutations were found. Edema in most MRS FP patients did not dominate the clinical picture, and no progression of the disease was observed, contrary to existing knowledge. At the Department of Dermatology, two patients had triad MRS and 15 had monosymptomatic granulomatous cheilitis with frequent or persistent edema and typical MRS tissue histology. The clinical picture of MRS varied according to the department where the patient was treated. More studies from otorhinolaryngology departments and on patients with FP would clarify the actual incidence and clinical picture of the syndrome.

Straw Performance Studies and Quality Assurance for the ATLAS Transition Radiation Tracker

The Transition Radiation Tracker (TRT) of the ATLAS experiment at the LHC is part of the Inner Detector. It is designed as a robust and powerful gaseous detector that provides tracking through individual drift-tubes (straws) as well as particle identification via transition radiation (TR) detection. The straw tubes are operated with Xe-CO2-O2 70/27/3, a gas that combines the advantages of efficient TR absorption, a short electron drift time and minimum ageing effects. The modules of the barrel part of the TRT were built in the United States while the end-cap wheels are assembled at two Russian institutes. Acceptance tests of barrel modules and end-cap wheels are performed at CERN before assembly and integration with the Semiconductor Tracker (SCT) and the Pixel Detector. This thesis first describes simulations the TRT straw tube. The argon-based acceptance gas mixture as well as two xenon-based operating gases are examined for its properties. Drift velocities and Townsend coefficients are computed with the help of the program Magboltz and used to study electron drift and multiplication in the straw using the software Garfield. The inclusion of Penning transfers in the avalanche process leads to remarkable agreements with experimental data. A high level of cleanliness in the TRT s acceptance test gas system is indispensable. To monitor gas purity, a small straw tube detector has been constructed and extensively used to study the ageing behaviour of the straw tube in Ar-CO2. A variety of ageing tests are presented and discussed. Acceptance tests for the TRT survey dimensions, wire tension, gas-tightness, high-voltage stability and gas gain uniformity along each individual straw. The thesis gives details on acceptance criteria and measurement methods in the case of the end-cap wheels. Special focus is put on wire tension and straw straightness. The effect of geometrically deformed straws on gas gain and energy resolution is examined in an experimental setup and compared to simulation studies. An overview of the most important results from the end-cap wheels tested up to this point is presented.

Optical Studies of the Antarctic Glacio-Oceanic System

The Antarctic system comprises of the continent itself, Antarctica, and the ocean surrounding it, the Southern Ocean. The system has an important part in the global climate due to its size, its high latitude location and the negative radiation balance of its large ice sheets. Antarctica has also been in focus for several decades due to increased ultraviolet (UV) levels caused by stratospheric ozone depletion, and the disintegration of its ice shelves. In this study, measurements were made during three Austral summers to study the optical properties of the Antarctic system and to produce radiation information for additional modeling studies. These are related to specific phenomena found in the system. During the summer of 1997-1998, measurements of beam absorption and beam attenuation coefficients, and downwelling and upwelling irradiance were made in the Southern Ocean along a S-N transect at 6°E. The attenuation of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was calculated and used together with hydrographic measurements to judge whether the phytoplankton in the investigated areas of the Southern Ocean are light limited. By using the Kirk formula the diffuse attenuation coefficient was linked to the absorption and scattering coefficients. The diffuse attenuation coefficients (Kpar) for PAR were found to vary between 0.03 and 0.09 1/m. Using the values for KPAR and the definition of the Sverdrup critical depth, the studied Southern Ocean plankton systems were found not to be light limited. Variabilities in the spectral and total albedo of snow were studied in the Queen Maud Land region of Antarctica during the summers of 1999-2000 and 2000-2001. The measurement areas were the vicinity of the South African Antarctic research station SANAE 4, and a traverse near the Finnish Antarctic research station Aboa. The midday mean total albedos for snow were between 0.83, for clear skies, and 0.86, for overcast skies, at Aboa and between 0.81 and 0.83 for SANAE 4. The mean spectral albedo levels at Aboa and SANAE 4 were very close to each other. The variations in the spectral albedos were due more to differences in ambient conditions than variations in snow properties. A Monte-Carlo model was developed to study the spectral albedo and to develop a novel nondestructive method to measure the diffuse attenuation coefficient of snow. The method was based on the decay of upwelling radiation moving horizontally away from a source of downwelling light. This was assumed to have a relation to the diffuse attenuation coefficient. In the model, the attenuation coefficient obtained from the upwelling irradiance was higher than that obtained using vertical profiles of downwelling irradiance. The model results were compared to field measurements made on dry snow in Finnish Lapland and they correlated reasonably well. Low-elevation (below 1000 m) blue-ice areas may experience substantial melt-freeze cycles due to absorbed solar radiation and the small heat conductivity in the ice. A two-dimensional (x-z) model has been developed to simulate the formation and water circulation in the subsurface ponds. The model results show that for a physically reasonable parameter set the formation of liquid water within the ice can be reproduced. The results however are sensitive to the chosen parameter values, and their exact values are not well known. Vertical convection and a weak overturning circulation is generated stratifying the fluid and transporting warmer water downward, thereby causing additional melting at the base of the pond. In a 50-year integration, a global warming scenario mimicked by a decadal scale increase of 3 degrees per 100 years in air temperature, leads to a general increase in subsurface water volume. The ice did not disintegrate due to the air temperature increase after the 50 year integration.

Monte Carlo Simulations of Molecular Clusters in Nucleation

A better understanding of the limiting step in a first order phase transition, the nucleation process, is of major importance to a variety of scientific fields ranging from atmospheric sciences to nanotechnology and even to cosmology. This is due to the fact that in most phase transitions the new phase is separated from the mother phase by a free energy barrier. This barrier is crossed in a process called nucleation. Nowadays it is considered that a significant fraction of all atmospheric particles is produced by vapor-to liquid nucleation. In atmospheric sciences, as well as in other scientific fields, the theoretical treatment of nucleation is mostly based on a theory known as the Classical Nucleation Theory. However, the Classical Nucleation Theory is known to have only a limited success in predicting the rate at which vapor-to-liquid nucleation takes place at given conditions. This thesis studies the unary homogeneous vapor-to-liquid nucleation from a statistical mechanics viewpoint. We apply Monte Carlo simulations of molecular clusters to calculate the free energy barrier separating the vapor and liquid phases and compare our results against the laboratory measurements and Classical Nucleation Theory predictions. According to our results, the work of adding a monomer to a cluster in equilibrium vapour is accurately described by the liquid drop model applied by the Classical Nucleation Theory, once the clusters are larger than some threshold size. The threshold cluster sizes contain only a few or some tens of molecules depending on the interaction potential and temperature. However, the error made in modeling the smallest of clusters as liquid drops results in an erroneous absolute value for the cluster work of formation throughout the size range, as predicted by the McGraw-Laaksonen scaling law. By calculating correction factors to Classical Nucleation Theory predictions for the nucleation barriers of argon and water, we show that the corrected predictions produce nucleation rates that are in good comparison with experiments. For the smallest clusters, the deviation between the simulation results and the liquid drop values are accurately modelled by the low order virial coefficients at modest temperatures and vapour densities, or in other words, in the validity range of the non-interacting cluster theory by Frenkel, Band and Bilj. Our results do not indicate a need for a size dependent replacement free energy correction. The results also indicate that Classical Nucleation Theory predicts the size of the critical cluster correctly. We also presents a new method for the calculation of the equilibrium vapour density, surface tension size dependence and planar surface tension directly from cluster simulations. We also show how the size dependence of the cluster surface tension in equimolar surface is a function of virial coefficients, a result confirmed by our cluster simulations.