Strike Hard, Strike Sure - Operation Musketeer : British Military Planning during the Suez Crisis, 1956

This study analyses British military planning and actions during the Suez Crisis in 1956. It seeks to find military reasons for the change of concepts during the planning and compares these reasons with the tactical doctrines of the time. The thesis takes extensive advantage of military documents preserved in the National Archives, London. In order to expand the understanding of the exchange of views during the planning process, the private papers of high ranking military officials have also been consulted. French military documents preserved in the Service Historique de la Defence, Paris, have provided an important point of comparison. The Suez Crisis caught the British armed forces in the middle of a transition phase. The main objective of the armed forces was to establish a credible deterrence against the Soviet Union. However, due to overseas commitments the Middle East playing a paramount role because of its economic importance the armed forces were compelled to also prepare for Limited War and the Cold War. The armed forces were not fully prepared to meet this demand. The Middle Eastern garrison was being re-organised after the withdrawal from the Canal Base and the concept for a strategic reserve was unimplemented. The tactical doctrines of the time were based on experiences from the Second World War. As a result, the British view of amphibious operations and the subsequent campaigns emphasised careful planning, mastery of the sea and the air, sufficient superiority in numbers and firepower, centralised command and extensive administrative preparations. The British military had realized that Nasser could nationalise the Suez Canal and prepared an outline plan to meet this contingency. Although the plan was nothing more than a concept, it was accepted as a basis for further planning when the Canal was nationalised at the end of July. This plan was short-lived. The nominated Task Force Commanders shifted the landing site from Port Said to Alexandria because it enabled faster expansion of the bridgehead. In addition, further operations towards Cairo the hub of Nasser s power would be easier to conduct. The operational concept can be described as being traditional and was in accordance with the amphibious warfare doctrine. This plan was completely changed at the beginning of September. Apparently, General Charles Keightley, the Commander-in-Chief, and the Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee developed the idea of prolonged aerial operations. The essence of the concept was to break the Egyptian will to resist by attacking the oil facilities, the transportation system and the armed forces. This victory through air concept would be supported by carefully planned psychological operations. This concept was in accordance with the Royal Air Force doctrine, which promoted a bomber offensive against selected target categories. General Keightley s plan was accepted despite suspicions at every planning level. The Joint Planning Staff and the Task Force Commanders opposed the concept from the beginning to the end because of its unpredictability. There was no information that suggested the bombing would persuade the Egyptians to submit. This problem was worsened by the fact that British intelligence was unable to provide reliable strategic information. The Task Force Commanders, who were responsible for the tactical plans, were not able to change Keightley s mind, but the concept was expanded to include a traditional amphibious assault on Port Said due to their resistance. The bombing campaign was never tested as the Royal Air Force was denied authorisation to destroy the transportation and oil targets. The Chiefs of Staff and General Keightley were too slow to realise that the execution of the plan depended on the determination of the Prime Minister. However, poor health, a lack of American and domestic support and the indecisiveness of the military had ruined Eden s resolve. In the end, a very traditional amphibious assault, which was bound to succeed at the tactical level but fail at the strategic level, was launched against Port Said.

Uncertainty in forest simulators and forest planning systems

The forest simulator is a computerized model for predicting forest growth and future development as well as effects of forest harvests and treatments. The forest planning system is a decision support tool, usually including a forest simulator and an optimisation model, for finding the optimal forest management actions. The information produced by forest simulators and forest planning systems is used for various analytical purposes and in support of decision making. However, the quality and reliability of this information can often be questioned. Natural variation in forest growth and estimation errors in forest inventory, among other things, cause uncertainty in predictions of forest growth and development. This uncertainty stemming from different sources has various undesirable effects. In many cases outcomes of decisions based on uncertain information are something else than desired. The objective of this thesis was to study various sources of uncertainty and their effects in forest simulators and forest planning systems. The study focused on three notable sources of uncertainty: errors in forest growth predictions, errors in forest inventory data, and stochastic fluctuation of timber assortment prices. Effects of uncertainty were studied using two types of forest growth models, individual tree-level models and stand-level models, and with various error simulation methods. New method for simulating more realistic forest inventory errors was introduced and tested. Also, three notable sources of uncertainty were combined and their joint effects on stand-level net present value estimates were simulated. According to the results, the various sources of uncertainty can have distinct effects in different forest growth simulators. The new forest inventory error simulation method proved to produce more realistic errors. The analysis on the joint effects of various sources of uncertainty provided interesting knowledge about uncertainty in forest simulators.

Bat habitat requirements : implications for land use planning

Knowledge of the habitat requirements of bat species is needed in decision making in land use planning. Bats' hibernation requirements were studied both in Estonia and in southern Finland. In both countries, the northern bat and the brown long-eared bat hibernated in colder and drier locations, whereas Daubenton's bat and Brandt's/whiskered bats hibernated in warmer and more humid locations. In Estonia, the pond bat hibernated in the warmest and most humid conditions, whereas Natterer's bat hibernated in the coldest and driest conditions. Hibernacula were at their coldest in mid-season and became warmer towards the end of the season. The results suggest that bats made an active choice of colder hibernation temperatures at the seasons end. They minimised the negative effects of hibernation early in the hibernation season by hibernating in warmer locations and energy expenditure late in the hibernation season by hibernating in colder locations. The use of foraging habitats was studied in northern and southern Finland. The northern bat used foraging sites opportunistically. Daubenton's bat foraged mainly in water habitats, whereas Brandt's/whiskered bats and the brown long-eared bat foraged mainly in forest habitats. In northern Finland, Daubenton's bats foraged almost exclusively on rivers and typically together with the northern bat. Daubenton's bats and Brandt's/whiskered bats were found only where there were lower ambient light levels. One of the most important things in the management of foraging areas for them is to keep them shady. Hibernacula in Finland typically housed few bats, suggesting that hibernation sites used by even a small number of bats are important. Bats typically used natural stone for hibernation suggesting that natural underground sites in rocks or cliffs or man-made underground sites built using natural stone are important for them. The results suggest that appropriate timing of surveys may vary according to the species and latitude.

Owner-driven decision support in holding-specific forest planning

Socio-economic and demographic changes among family forest owners and demands for versatile forestry decision aid motivated this study, which sought grounds for owner-driven forest planning. Finnish family forest owners’ forest-related decision making was analyzed in two interview-based qualitative studies, the main findings of which were surveyed quantitatively. Thereafter, a scheme for adaptively mixing methods in individually tailored decision support processes was constructed. The first study assessed owners’ decision-making strategies by examining varying levels of the sharing of decision-making power and the desire to learn. Five decision-making modes – trusting, learning, managing, pondering, and decisive – were discerned and discussed against conformable decision-aid approaches. The second study conceptualized smooth communication and assessed emotional, practical, and institutional boosters of and barriers to such smoothness in communicative decision support. The results emphasize the roles of trust, comprehension, and contextual services in owners’ communicative decision making. In the third study, a questionnaire tool to measure owners’ attitudes towards communicative planning was constructed by using trusting, learning, and decisive dimensions. Through a multivariate analysis of survey data, three owner groups were identified as fusions of the original decision-making modes: trusting learners (53%), decisive learners (27%), and decisive managers (20%). Differently weighted communicative services are recommended for these compound wishes. The findings of the studies above were synthesized in a form of adaptive decision analysis (ADA), which allows and encourages the decision-maker (owner) to make deliberate choices concerning the phases of a decision aid (planning) process. The ADA model relies on adaptability and feedback management, which foster smooth communication with the owner and (inter-)organizational learning of the planning institution(s). The summarized results indicate that recognizing the communication-related amenity values of family forest owners may be crucial in developing planning and extension services. It is therefore recommended that owners, root-level planners, consultation professionals, and pragmatic researchers collaboratively continue to seek stable change.

Integration of natural hazards, risk and climate change into spatial planning practices

Most countries of Europe, as well as many countries in other parts of the world, are experiencing an increased impact of natural hazards. It is often speculated, but not yet proven, that climate change might influence the frequency and magnitude of certain hydro-meteorological natural hazards. What has certainly been observed is a sharp increase in financial losses caused by natural hazards worldwide. Eventhough Europe appears to be a space that is not affected by natural hazards to such catastrophic extents as other parts of the world are, the damages experienced here are certainly increasing too. Natural hazards, climate change and, in particular, risks have therefore recently been put high on the political agenda of the EU. In the search for appropriate instruments for mitigating impacts of natural hazards and climate change, as well as risks, the integration of these factors into spatial planning practices is constantly receiving higher attention. The focus of most approaches lies on single hazards and climate change mitigation strategies. The current paradigm shift of climate change mitigation to adaptation is used as a basis to draw conclusions and recommendations on what concepts could be further incorporated into spatial planning practices. Especially multi-hazard approaches are discussed as an important approach that should be developed further. One focal point is the definition and applicability of the terms natural hazard, vulnerability and risk in spatial planning practices. Especially vulnerability and risk concepts are so many-fold and complicated that their application in spatial planning has to be analysed most carefully. The PhD thesis is based on six published articles that describe the results of European research projects, which have elaborated strategies and tools for integrated communication and assessment practices on natural hazards and climate change impacts. The papers describe approaches on local, regional and European level, both from theoretical and practical perspectives. Based on these, passed, current and future potential spatial planning applications are reviewed and discussed. In conclusion it is recommended to shift from single hazard assessments to multi-hazard approaches, integrating potential climate change impacts. Vulnerability concepts should play a stronger role than present, and adaptation to natural hazards and climate change should be more emphasized in relation to mitigation. It is outlined that the integration of risk concepts in planning is rather complicated and would need very careful assessment to ensure applicability. Future spatial planning practices should also consider to be more interdisciplinary, i.e. to integrate as many stakeholders and experts as possible to ensure the sustainability of investments.

Use of ecological information in urban planning

Urbanization leads to irreversible land-use change, which has ecological consequences such as the loss and fragmentation of green areas, and structural and functional changes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These consequences diminish ecosystem services important for human populations living in urban areas. All this results in a conflict situation: how to simultaneously meet the needs of city growth and the principles of sustainable development, and especially conserve important green areas within and around built-up areas? Urban planners and decisionmakers have an important role in this, since they must use the ecological information mainly from species and biotope inventories and biodiversity impact assessments in determining the conservation values of green areas. The main aim of this thesis was to study the use of ecological information in the urban land-use planning and decisionmaking process in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, Finland. At first, the literature on ecological-social systems linkages related to urban planning was reviewed. Based on the review, a theoretical and conceptual framework for the research on Finnish urban setting was adapted. Secondly, factors determining the importance and effectiveness of incorporation of ecological information into the urban planning process, and the challenges related to the use of ecological information were studied. Thirdly, the importance and use of Local Ecological Knowledge in urban planning were investigated. Then, factors determining the consideration of urban green areas and related ecological information in political land-use decisionmaking were studied. Finally, in a case study illustrating the above considerations, the importance of urban stream ecosystems in the land-use planning was investigated. This thesis demonstrated that although there are several challenges in using ecological information effectively, it is considered as an increasingly important part of the basic information used in urban planning and decisionmaking process. The basic determinants for this are the recent changes in environmental legislation, but also the increasing appreciation of green areas and their conservation values by all the stakeholders. In addition, Local Ecological Knowledge in its several forms can be a source of ecological information for planners if incorporated effectively into the process. This study also showed that rare or endangered species and biotopes, and related ecological information receive priority in the urban planning process and usually pass through the decisionmaking system. Furthermore, the stream Rekolanoja case indicates that planners and residents see the value of urban stream ecosystem as increasingly important for the local health and social values, such as recreation and stress relief.

Residential Differentiation, Housing Policy and Urban Planning in the Transformation from State Socialism to a Market Economy: The Case of Tallinn

The thesis examines urban issues arising from the transformation from state socialism to a market economy. The main topics are residential differentiation, i.e., uneven spatial distribution of social groups across urban residential areas, and the effects of housing policy and town planning on urban development. The case study is development in Tallinn, the capital city of Estonia, in the context of development of Central and Eastern European cities under and after socialism. The main body of the thesis consists of four separately published refereed articles. The research question that brings the articles together is how the residential (socio-spatial) pattern of cities developed during the state socialist period and how and why that pattern has changed since the transformation to a market economy began. The first article reviews the literature on residential differentiation in Budapest, Prague, Tallinn and Warsaw under state socialism from the viewpoint of the role of housing policy in the processes of residential differentiation at various stages of the socialist era. The paper shows how the socialist housing provision system produced socio-occupational residential differentiation directly and indirectly and it describes how the residential patterns of these cities developed. The second article is critical of oversimplified accounts of rapid reorganisation of the overall socio-spatial pattern of post-socialist cities and of claims that residential mobility has had a straightforward role in it. The Tallinn case study, consisting of an analysis of the distribution of socio-economic groups across eight city districts and over four housing types in 1999 as well as examining the role of residential mobility in differentiation during the 1990s, provides contrasting evidence. The third article analyses the role and effects of housing policies in Tallinn s residential differentiation. The focus is on contemporary post-privatisation housing-policy measures and their effects. The article shows that the Estonian housing policies do not even aim to reduce, prevent or slow down the harmful effects of the considerable income disparities that are manifest in housing inequality and residential differentiation. The fourth article examines the development of Tallinn s urban planning system 1991-2004 from the viewpoint of what means it has provided the city with to intervene in urban development and how the city has used these tools. The paper finds that despite some recent progress in planning, its role in guiding where and how the city actually developed has so far been limited. Tallinn s urban development is rather initiated and driven by private agents seeking profit from their investment in land. The thesis includes original empirical research in the three articles that analyse development since socialism. The second article employs quantitative data and methods, primarily index calculation, whereas the third and the fourth ones draw from a survey of policy documents combined with interviews with key informants. Keywords: residential differentiation, housing policy, urban planning, post-socialist transformation, Estonia, Tallinn

Flow forecasts in general planning of municipal water and sewage works

Vuorokausivirtaaman ennustaminen yhdyskuntien vesi- ja viemärilaitosten yleissuunnittelussa.

Examining effectiveness of an immigrant labor market integration intervention. The role of acculturation, discrimination, self-efficacy, outcome expectances, action and coping planning.

The designing of effective intervention tools to improve immigrants’ labor market integration remains an important topic in contemporary Western societies. This study examines whether and how a new intervention tool, Working Life Certificate (WLC), helps unemployed immigrants to find employment and strengthen their belief of their vocational skills. The study is based on quantitative longitudinal survey data from 174 unemployed immigrants of various origins who participated in the pilot phase of WLC examinations in 2009. Surveys were administered in three waves: before the test, right after it, and three months later. Although it is often argued that the unemployment among immigrants is due either to their lack of skills and cultural differences or to discrimination in recruitment, scholars within social psychology of behavior change argue that the best way of helping people to achieve their goals (e.g. finding employment) is to build up their sense of self-efficacy, alter their outcome expectances in a more positive direction or to help them to construct more detailed action and coping plans. This study aims to shed light on the role of these concepts in immigrants’ labor market integration. The results support the theories of behavior change moderately. Having positive expectances regarding the outcomes of various job search behaviors was found to predict employment in the future. Together with action and coping planning it also predicted increase in job search behavior. The intervention, WLC, was able to affect participants’ self-efficacy, but contrary to expectations, self-efficacy was found not to be related to either job search behavior or future labor market status. Also, perceived discrimination did not explain problems in finding employment, but hints of subtle or structural discrimination were found. Adoption of Finnish work culture together with strong family culture was found to predict future employment. Hence, in this thesis I argue that awarding people diplomas should be preferred in immigrant integration training as it strengthens people’s sense of self-efficacy. Instead of teaching new information, more attention should be directed at changing people’s outcome expectances in a more positive direction and helping them to construct detailed plans on how to achieve their goals.

Aspiration-based utility functions in a planning model for timber flow management.

The study presents a theory of utility models based on aspiration levels, as well as the application of this theory to the planning of timber flow economics. The first part of the study comprises a derivation of the utility-theoretic basis for the application of aspiration levels. Two basic models are dealt with: the additive and the multiplicative. Applied here solely for partial utility functions, aspiration and reservation levels are interpreted as defining piecewisely linear functions. The standpoint of the choices of the decision-maker is emphasized by the use of indifference curves. The second part of the study introduces a model for the management of timber flows. The model is based on the assumption that the decision-maker is willing to specify a shape of income flow which is different from that of the capital-theoretic optimum. The utility model comprises four aspiration-based compound utility functions. The theory and the flow model are tested numerically by computations covering three forest holdings. The results show that the additive model is sensitive even to slight changes in relative importances and aspiration levels. This applies particularly to nearly linear production possibility boundaries of monetary variables. The multiplicative model, on the other hand, is stable because it generates strictly convex indifference curves. Due to a higher marginal rate of substitution, the multiplicative model implies a stronger dependence on forest management than the additive function. For income trajectory optimization, a method utilizing an income trajectory index is more efficient than one based on the use of aspiration levels per management period. Smooth trajectories can be attained by squaring the deviations of the feasible trajectories from the desired one.