Microeconometric Studies on Unemployment and Business Cycles

Väitöskirja koostuu neljästä esseestä, joissa tutkitaan empiirisen työntaloustieteen kysymyksiä. Ensimmäinen essee tarkastelee työttömyysturvan tason vaikutusta työllistymiseen Suomessa. Vuonna 2003 ansiosidonnaista työttömyysturvaa korotettiin työntekijöille, joilla on pitkä työhistoria. Korotus oli keskimäärin 15 % ja se koski ensimmäistä 150 työttömyyspäivää. Tutkimuksessa arvioidaan korotuksen vaikutus vertailemalla työllistymisen todennäköisyyksiä korotuksen saaneen ryhmän ja vertailuryhmän välillä ennen uudistusta ja sen jälkeen. Tuloksien perusteella työttömyysturvan korotus laski työllistymisen todennäköisyyttä merkittävästi, keskimäärin noin 16 %. Korotuksen vaikutus on suurin työttömyyden alussa ja se katoaa kun oikeus korotettuun ansiosidonnaiseen päättyy. Toinen essee tutkii työttömyyden pitkän aikavälin kustannuksia Suomessa keskittyen vuosien 1991 – 1993 syvään lamaan. Laman aikana toimipaikkojen sulkeminen lisääntyi paljon ja työttömyysaste nousi yli 13 prosenttiyksikköä. Tutkimuksessa verrataan laman aikana toimipaikan sulkemisen vuoksi työttömäksi jääneitä parhaassa työiässä olevia miehiä työllisinä pysyneisiin. Työttömyyden vaikutusta tarkastellaan kuuden vuoden seurantajaksolla. Vuonna 1999 työttömyyttä laman aikana kokeneen ryhmän vuosiansiot olivat keskimäärin 25 % alemmat kuin vertailuryhmässä. Tulojen menetys johtui sekä alhaisemmasta työllisyydestä että palkkatasosta. Kolmannessa esseessä tarkastellaan Suomen 1990-luvun alun laman aiheuttamaa työttömyysongelmaa tutkimalla työttömyyden kestoon vaikuttavia tekijöitä yksilötasolla. Kiinnostuksen kohteena on työttömyyden rakenteen ja työn kysynnän muutoksien vaikutus keskimääräiseen kestoon. Usein oletetaan, että laman seurauksena työttömäksi jää keskimääräistä huonommin työllistyviä henkilöitä, jolloin se itsessään pidentäisi keskimääräistä työttömyyden kestoa. Tuloksien perusteella makrotason kysyntävaikutus oli keskeinen työttömyyden keston kannalta ja rakenteen muutoksilla oli vain pieni kestoa lisäävä vaikutus laman aikana. Viimeisessä esseessä tutkitaan suhdannevaihtelun vaikutusta työpaikkaonnettomuuksien esiintymiseen. Tutkimuksessa käytetään ruotsalaista yksilötason sairaalahoitoaineistoa, joka on yhdistetty populaatiotietokantaan. Aineiston avulla voidaan tutkia vaihtoehtoisia selityksiä onnettomuuksien lisääntymiselle noususuhdanteessa, minkä on esitetty johtuvan esim. stressin tai kiireen vaikutuksesta. Tuloksien perusteella työpaikkaonnettomuudet ovat syklisiä, mutta vain tiettyjen ryhmien kohdalla. Työvoiman rakenteen vaihtelu saattaa selittää osan naisten onnettomuuksien syklisyydestä. Miesten kohdalla vain vähemmän vakavat onnettomuudet ovat syklisiä, mikä saattaa johtua strategisesta käyttäytymisestä.

Screening Cycles

We demonstrate how endogenous information acquisition in credit markets creates lending cycles when competing banks undertake their screening decisions in an uncoordinated way, thereby highlighting the role of intertemporal screening externalities induced by lending market competition as a structural source of instability. We show that uncoordinated screening behavior of competing banks may be not only the source of an important financial multiplier, but also an independent source of fluctuations inducing business cycles. The screening cycle mechanism is robust to generalizations along many dimensions such as the lending market structure, the lending rate determination and the imperfections in the screening technology.

Joseph A. Schumpeter's Theory of Social and Economic Evolution : a Reconstruction and Critique

The book presents a reconstruction, interpretation and critical evaluation of the Schumpeterian theoretical approach to socio-economic change. The analysis focuses on the problem of social evolution, on the interpretation of the innovation process and business cycles and, finally, on Schumpeter s optimistic neglect of ecological-environmental conditions as possible factors influencing social-economic change. The author investigates how the Schumpeterian approach describes the process of social and economic evolution, and how the logic of transformations is described, explained and understood in the Schumpeterian theory. The material of the study includes Schumpeter s works written after 1925, a related part of the commentary literature on these works, and a selected part of the related literature on the innovation process, technological transformations and the problem of long waves. Concerning the period after 1925, the Schumpeterian oeuvre is conceived and analysed as a more or less homogenous corpus of texts. The book is divided into 9 chapters. Chapters 1-2 describe the research problems and methods. Chapter 3 is an effort to provide a systematic reconstruction of Schumpeter's ideas concerning social and economic evolution. Chapters 4 and 5 focus their analysis on the innovation process. In Chapters 6 and 7 Schumpeter's theory of business cycles is examined. Chapter 8 evaluates Schumpeter's views concerning his relative neglect of ecological-environmental conditions as possible factors influencing social-economic change. Finally, chapter 9 draws the main conclusions.

Talouskäsitysten vaikutus hallituksen suosioon Puolassa 2006–2007

Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan äänestäjien talouskäsitysten vaikutusta hallituksen suosioon Puolassa vuosina 2006 ja 2007. Tutkimusasetelma juontaa juurensa poliittisten suhdannevaihteluiden teoriaan, jonka mukaan poliitikot pyrkivät manipuloimaan taloutta vaalien alla tullakseen uudelleen valituiksi. Vastuullisuushypoteesin mukaan äänestäjät palkitsevat poliitikot hyvästä taloustilanteesta. Näin ollen mikäli äänestäjät ovat tyytyväisiä talouteen he äänestävät hallitusta. Mikäli eivät, he äänestävät oppositiota. Miten äänestäjät sitten tekevät arvionsa taloudesta? Tutkielmassa selvitetään vaikuttiko äänestäjien mielipiteisiin käsitys nykyisestä vai tulevaisuuden taloustilanteesta. Käsitys nykyisestä taloustilanteesta perustuu havaintoihin jo toteutuneesta talouspolitiikasta. Tätä käsitystä kutsutaan retrospektiiviseksi näkemykseksi. Prospektiiviset talousnäkemykset koostuvat näkemyksestä ja odotuksista talouden tulevasta tilasta ja uskosta hallituksen kykyyn tarjota paras vaihtoehto suotuisalle talouskehitykselle. Aikaulottuvuuden lisäksi tutkielmassa testataan, vaikuttaako äänestäjiin enemmän heidän oma taloustilanteensa vai näkemys yleisestä talouden tilanteesta. Mikäli hallituksen suosio perustuu näkemyksiin henkilökohtaisen talouden tilasta, ovat äänestäjät egotrooppisia. Mikäli kannatuspäätös perustuu näkemykseen kansantalouden tilasta, ovat äänestäjät puolestaan sosiotrooppisia. Aineistona tutkielmassa käytetään uusinta saatavilla olevaa Puolan mielipidetiedustelun (Centrum Badania Opinii Publicznej) keräämää kyselyaineistoa vuosilta 2006 ja 2007. Tutkielmassa on yhdistetty kyselyaineistot 22:n kuukauden ajalta. Aineistoa on analysoitu logistisen regressioanalyysin menetelmin. Tutkielman perusteella talousnäkemyksistä suurin vaikutus hallituksen suosioon on äänestäjien näkemyksillä kansantalouden tulevaisuuden tilasta. Henkilökohtaisen talouden osalta positiiviset tulevaisuudennäkymät vaikuttavat positiivisesti myös hallituksen kannatukseen. Retrospektiivinen arvio henkilökohtaisesta taloudesta toimii kuitenkin teorian vastaisesti; oman taloudellisen tilanteen hyväksi arvioineiden todennäköisyys kannatta hallitusta oli pienempää kuin niillä, jotka arvioivat oman taloustilanteensa huonoksi. Kontrollimuuttujiksi valittiin joukko aiemmassa tutkimuksessa äänestyskäyttäytymiseen Puolassa vaikuttaneita tekijöitä. Näitä olivat ikä, sukupuoli, koulutus, asuinpaikka, näkemys työllisyystilanteesta, ideologinen sijoittuminen oikeisto–vasemmisto-akselilla sekä uskonnollisuus. Kontrollimuuttujista merkitseviksi osoittautuivat uskonnollisuus, oikeisto–vasemmisto-ideologia, koulutus, asuinpaikka sekä ikä. Kun edellä mainitut taustamuuttujat on kontrolloitu, taloustekijät selittävät noin viidesosan hallituksen kannatuksen todennäköisyyden vaihtelusta.

Measuring attitudes in translation: a study of Nokia business reports

Background Contemporary Finnish, spoken and written, reveals loanwords or foreignisms in the form of hybrids: a mixture of Finnish and foreign syllables (alumiinivalua). Sometimes loanwords are inserted into the Finnish sentence in their raw form just as they are found in the source language (pulp, after sales palvelu). Again, sometimes loanwords are calques, which appear Finnish but are spelled and pronounced in an altogether foreign manner (Protomanageri, Promenadi kampuksella). Research Questions What role does Finnish business translation play in the migration of foreignisms into Finnish if we consider translation "as a construct of solutions determined by the ideological constraints and conflicts characterizing the target culture" (Robyns 1992: 212)? What attitudes do the Finns display toward the presence of foreignisms in their language? What socio-economic or ideological conditions (Bassnett 1994: 321) are responsible for these attitudes? Are these conditions dynamic? What tools can be used to measure such attitudes? This dissertation set out to answer these and similar questions. Attitudes are imperialist (where otherness is both denied and transformed), defensive (where otherness is acknowledged, transformed, and vilified), transdiscursive (a neutral attitude to both otherness and transformation), or finally defective (where alien migration is acknowledged and "stimulated") (Robyns 1994: 60). Methodology The research method follows Rose's schema (1984: 8): (a) take an existing theory, (b) develop from it a proposition specific enough to be tested, (c) devise a scheme that tests this proposition, (d) carry through the scheme in practice, (e) draw up results and discuss conclusions in relation to the original theory. In other words, the method attempts an explanation of a Finnish social phenomenon based on systematic analyses of translated evidence (Lewins 1992: 4) whereby what really matters is the logical sequence that connects the empirical data to the initial research questions raised above and, ultimately to its conclusion (Yin 1984: 29). Results This research found that Finnish translators of the Nokia annual reports used a foreignism whenever possible such as komponentin instead of rakenneosa, or investoida instead of sijoittaa, and often without any apparent justification (Pryce 2003: 203-12) more than the translator's personal preference. In the old documents (minutes of meetings of the Board of Directors of Osakeyhtio H. Saastamoinen, Ltd. dated 5 July 1912-1917, a NOPSA booklet (1932), Enzo-Gutzeit-Tornator Oy document (1938), Imatra Steel Oy Annual Report 1964, and Nokia Oy Annual Report 1946), foreignisms under Haugen's (1950: 210-31) Classification #1 occurred an average of 0.6 times, while in the new documents (Nokia 1998 translated Annual Reports) they occurred an average of 6.5 times. That big difference, suggests transdiscursive and defective attitudes in Finnish society toward the other. In the 1850s, Finnish attitudes toward alien persons and cultures were hardened, intolerant and prohibitive because language politics were both nascent and emerging, and Finns adopted a defensive stance (Paloposki 2002: 102 ff) to protect their cultural and national treasures such as language and folklore. Innovation The innovation here is that no prior doctoral level research measured Finnish attitudes toward foreignisms using a business translation approach. This is the first time that Haugen's classification has been modified and applied in target language analysis. It is hoped that this method would be replicated in similar research in the future. Applications For practical applications, researchers with interest in languages, language development, language influences, language ideologies, and power structures that affect national language policies will find this thesis useful, especially the model for collecting, grouping, and analyzing foreignisms that has been demonstrated here. It is intended to document for posterity current attitudes of Finns toward the other as revealed in business translations from 1912-1964, and in 1998. This way, future language researchers would be able to explore a time-line of Finnish language development and attitudes toward the other. Communication firms may also find this research interesting. In future, could the model we adopted be used to analyze literary texts or religious texts for example? Future Trends Though business documents show transdiscursive attitudes, other segments of Finnish society may show defensive or imperialist attitudes. When the ideology of industrialization changes in the future, will Finnish attitudes toward the other change as well? Will it then be possible to use the same kind of analytical tools to measure Finnish attitudes? More broadly, will linguistic change continue in the same direction of transdiscursive attitudes, or will the change slow down or even reverse into xenophobic attitudes? Is this our model culture-specific or can it be used in the context of other cultures? Conclusion There is anger against foreignisms in Finland as newspaper publications and television broadcasts show, but research shows that a majority of Finns consider foreignisms and the languages from which they come as sources of enrichment for Finnish culture (Laitinen 2000, Eurobarometer series 41 of July 1994, 44 of Spring 1996, 50 of Autumn 1998). Ideologies of industrialization and globalization in Finland have facilitated transdiscursive tendencies. When Finland's political ideology was intolerant toward foreign influences in the 1850s because Finland was in the process of consolidating her nascent country and language, attitudes toward the importation of loanwords also became intolerant. Presently, when industrialization and globalization became the dominant ideologies, we see a shift in attitudes toward transdiscursive tendencies. Ideology is usually unseen and too often ignored by translation researchers. However, ideology reveals itself as the most powerful factor affecting language attitudes in a target culture. Key words Finnish, Business Translation, Ideology, Foreignisms, Imperialist Attitudes, Defensive Attitudes, Transdiscursive Attitudes, Defective Attitudes, the Other, Old Documents, New Documents.

Across the Oceans : Development of Overseas Business Information Transmission, 1815-1875

Earlier studies have shown that the speed of information transmission developed radically during the 19th century. The fast development was mainly due to the change from sailing ships and horse-driven coaches to steamers and railways, as well as the telegraph. Speed of information transmission has normally been measured by calculating the duration between writing and receiving a letter, or between an important event and the time when the news was published elsewhere. As overseas mail was generally carried by ships, the history of communications and maritime history are closely related. This study also brings a postal historical aspect to the academic discussion. Additionally, there is another new aspect included. In business enterprises, information flows generally consisted of multiple transactions. Although fast one-way information was often crucial, e.g. news of a changing market situation, at least equally important was that there was a possibility to react rapidly. To examine the development of business information transmission, the duration of mail transport has been measured by a systematic and commensurable method, using consecutive information circles per year as the principal tool for measurement. The study covers a period of six decades, several of the world's most important trade routes and different mail-carrying systems operated by merchant ships, sailing packets and several nations' steamship services. The main sources have been the sailing data of mail-carrying ships and correspondence of several merchant houses in England. As the world's main trade routes had their specific historical backgrounds with different businesses, interests and needs, the systems for information transmission did not develop similarly or simultaneously. It was a process lasting several decades, initiated by the idea of organizing sailings in a regular line system. The evolution proceeded generally as follows: originally there was a more or less irregular system, then a regular system and finally a more frequent regular system of mail services. The trend was from sail to steam, but both these means of communication improved following the same scheme. Faster sailings alone did not radically improve the number of consecutive information circles per year, if the communication was not frequent enough. Neither did improved frequency advance the information circulation if the trip was very long or if the sailings were overlapping instead of complementing each other. The speed of information transmission could be improved by speeding up the voyage itself (technological improvements, minimizing the waiting time at ports of call, etc.) but especially by organizing sailings so that the recipients had the possibility to reply to arriving mails without unnecessary delay. It took two to three decades before the mail-carrying shipping companies were able to organize their sailings in an optimal way. Strategic shortcuts over isthmuses (e.g. Panama, Suez) together with the cooperation between steamships and railways enabled the most effective improvements in global communications before the introduction of the telegraph.

Kaveriporukasta liiketoiminnaksi : Tuotannon häiriöt ja organisaation oppiminen nopeasti muuttuvassa yrityksessä

In the 1990 s the companies utilizing and producing new information technology, especially so-called new media, were also expected to be forerunners in new forms of work and organization. Researchers anticipated that new, more creative forms of work and the changing content of working life were about to replace old industrial and standardized ways of working. However, research on actual companies in the IT sector revealed a situation where only minor changes to existing organizational forms were seen .Many of the independent companies faced great difficulties trying to survive the rapid changes in the products and production forms in the emerging field. Most of the research on the new media field has been conducted as surveys, and an understanding of the actual everyday work process has remained thin. My research is a longitudinal study of the early phases of one new media company in Finland. The study is an analysis of the challenges the company faced in a rapidly changing business field and the attempts to overcome these challenges. The two main analyses in the study focus on the developmental phases of the company and the disturbances in the production process. Based on these analyses, I study changes and learning at work using the methodological framework of developmental work research. Developmental work research is a Finnish variant of the cultural-historical activity theory applied to the study of learning and transformations at work. The data was gathered over a three-year period of ethnographic fieldwork. I documented the production processes and everyday life in the company as a participant observer. I interviewed key persons, video and audio-taped meetings, followed e-mail correspondence and collected various documents, such as agreements and memos. I developed a systematic method for analyzing the disturbances in the production process by combining the various data sources. The systematic analysis of the disturbances depicted a very complex and only partly managed production process. The production process had a long duration, and no single actor had an understanding of it as a whole. Most of the disturbances had to do with the customer relationships. The nature of the disturbances was latent; they were recognized but not addressed. In the particular production processes that I analyzed, the ending life span of a particular product, a CD-ROM, became obvious. This finding can be interpreted in relation to the developmental phase of the production and the transformation of the field as a whole. Based on the analysis of the developmental phases and the disturbances, I formulate a hypothesis of the contradictions and developmental potentials of the activity studied. The conclusions of the study challenge the existing understanding of how to conceptualize and study organizational learning in production work. Most theories of organizational learning do not address qualitative changes in production nor historical challenges of organizational learning itself. My study opens up a new horizon in understanding organizational learning in a rapidly changing field where a learning culture based on craft or mass production work is insufficient. There is a need for anticipatory and proactive organizational learning. Proactive learning is needed to anticipate the changes in production type, and the life cycles of products.

Information Visualization in a Business Decision Support System

Information visualization is a process of constructing a visual presentation of abstract quantitative data. The characteristics of visual perception enable humans to recognize patterns, trends and anomalies inherent in the data with little effort in a visual display. Such properties of the data are likely to be missed in a purely text-based presentation. Visualizations are therefore widely used in contemporary business decision support systems. Visual user interfaces called dashboards are tools for reporting the status of a company and its business environment to facilitate business intelligence (BI) and performance management activities. In this study, we examine the research on the principles of human visual perception and information visualization as well as the application of visualization in a business decision support system. A review of current BI software products reveals that the visualizations included in them are often quite ineffective in communicating important information. Based on the principles of visual perception and information visualization, we summarize a set of design guidelines for creating effective visual reporting interfaces.

A model Integrating the Facilities Management Process with the Building End User’s Business Process (ProFacil)

The ProFacil model is a generic process model defined as a framework model showing the links between the facilities management process and the building end user’s business process. The purpose of using the model is to support more detailed process modelling. The model has been developed using the IDEF0 modelling method. The ProFacil model describes business activities from the generalized point of view as management-, support-, and core processes and their relations. The model defines basic activities in the provision of a facility. Examples of these activities are “operate facilities”, “provide new facilities”, “provide re-build facilities”, “provide maintained facilities” and “perform dispose of facilities”. These are all generic activities providing a basis for a further specialisation of company specific FM activities and their tasks. A facilitator can establish a specialized process model using the ProFacil model and interacting with company experts to describe their company’s specific processes. These modelling seminars or interviews will be done in an informal way, supported by the high-level process model as a common reference.

Two Scenarios for How Scholarly Publishers Could Change Their Business Model to Open Access

The Internet has made possible the cost-effective dissemination of scientific journals in the form of electronic versions, usually in parallel with the printed versions. At the same time the electronic medium also makes possible totally new open access (OA) distribution models, funded by author charges, sponsorship, advertising, voluntary work, etc., where the end product is free in full text to the readers. Although more than 2,000 new OA journals have been founded in the last 15 years, the uptake of open access has been rather slow, with currently around 5% of all peer-reviewed articles published in OA journals. The slow growth can to a large extent be explained by the fact that open access has predominantly emerged via newly founded journals and startup publishers. Established journals and publishers have not had strong enough incentives to change their business models, and the commercial risks in doing so have been high. In this paper we outline and discuss two different scenarios for how scholarly publishers could change their operating model to open access. The first is based on an instantaneous change and the second on a gradual change. We propose a way to manage the gradual change by bundling traditional “big deal” licenses and author charges for opening access to individual articles.