Society by Numbers : Studies on Model-Based Explanations in the Social Sciences

The aim of this dissertation is to provide conceptual tools for the social scientist for clarifying, evaluating and comparing explanations of social phenomena based on formal mathematical models. The focus is on relatively simple theoretical models and simulations, not statistical models. These studies apply a theory of explanation according to which explanation is about tracing objective relations of dependence, knowledge of which enables answers to contrastive why and how-questions. This theory is developed further by delineating criteria for evaluating competing explanations and by applying the theory to social scientific modelling practices and to the key concepts of equilibrium and mechanism. The dissertation is comprised of an introductory essay and six published original research articles. The main theses about model-based explanations in the social sciences argued for in the articles are the following. 1) The concept of explanatory power, often used to argue for the superiority of one explanation over another, compasses five dimensions which are partially independent and involve some systematic trade-offs. 2) All equilibrium explanations do not causally explain the obtaining of the end equilibrium state with the multiple possible initial states. Instead, they often constitutively explain the macro property of the system with the micro properties of the parts (together with their organization). 3) There is an important ambivalence in the concept mechanism used in many model-based explanations and this difference corresponds to a difference between two alternative research heuristics. 4) Whether unrealistic assumptions in a model (such as a rational choice model) are detrimental to an explanation provided by the model depends on whether the representation of the explanatory dependency in the model is itself dependent on the particular unrealistic assumptions. Thus evaluating whether a literally false assumption in a model is problematic requires specifying exactly what is supposed to be explained and by what. 5) The question of whether an explanatory relationship depends on particular false assumptions can be explored with the process of derivational robustness analysis and the importance of robustness analysis accounts for some of the puzzling features of the tradition of model-building in economics. 6) The fact that economists have been relatively reluctant to use true agent-based simulations to formulate explanations can partially be explained by the specific ideal of scientific understanding implicit in the practise of orthodox economics.

Mathematical Aspects of Financial Markets with Frictions

Frictions are factors that hinder trading of securities in financial markets. Typical frictions include limited market depth, transaction costs, lack of infinite divisibility of securities, and taxes. Conventional models used in mathematical finance often gloss over these issues, which affect almost all financial markets, by arguing that the impact of frictions is negligible and, consequently, the frictionless models are valid approximations. This dissertation consists of three research papers, which are related to the study of the validity of such approximations in two distinct modeling problems. Models of price dynamics that are based on diffusion processes, i.e., continuous strong Markov processes, are widely used in the frictionless scenario. The first paper establishes that diffusion models can indeed be understood as approximations of price dynamics in markets with frictions. This is achieved by introducing an agent-based model of a financial market where finitely many agents trade a financial security, the price of which evolves according to price impacts generated by trades. It is shown that, if the number of agents is large, then under certain assumptions the price process of security, which is a pure-jump process, can be approximated by a one-dimensional diffusion process. In a slightly extended model, in which agents may exhibit herd behavior, the approximating diffusion model turns out to be a stochastic volatility model. Finally, it is shown that when agents' tendency to herd is strong, logarithmic returns in the approximating stochastic volatility model are heavy-tailed. The remaining papers are related to no-arbitrage criteria and superhedging in continuous-time option pricing models under small-transaction-cost asymptotics. Guasoni, Rásonyi, and Schachermayer have recently shown that, in such a setting, any financial security admits no arbitrage opportunities and there exist no feasible superhedging strategies for European call and put options written on it, as long as its price process is continuous and has the so-called conditional full support (CFS) property. Motivated by this result, CFS is established for certain stochastic integrals and a subclass of Brownian semistationary processes in the two papers. As a consequence, a wide range of possibly non-Markovian local and stochastic volatility models have the CFS property.

Population structure of Pyrenophora teres, the causal agent of net blotch of barley

Spring barley is the most important crop in Finland based on cultivated land area. Net blotch, a disease caused by Pyrenophora teres Drech., is the most damaging disease of barley in Finland. The pressure to improve the economics and efficiency of agriculture has increased the need for more efficient plant protection methods. Development of durable host-plant resistance to net blotch is a promising possibility. However, deployment of disease resistant crops could initiate selection pressure on the pathogen (P. teres) population. The aim of this study was to understand the population biology of P. teres and to estimate the evolutionary potential of P. teres under selective pressure following deployment of resistance genes and application of fungicides. The study included mainly Finnish P. teres isolates. Population samples from Russia and Australia were also included. Using AFLP markers substantial genotypic variation in P. teres populations was identified. Differences among isolates were least within Finnish fields and significantly higher in Krasnodar, Russia. Genetic differentiation was identified among populations from northern Europe and from Australia, and between the two forms P. teres f. teres (PTT, net form of net blotch) and P. teres f. maculata (PTM, spot form of net blotch) in Australia. Differentiation among populations was also identified based on virulence between Finnish and Russian populations, and based on prochloraz (fungicide) tolerance in the Häme region in Finland. Surprisingly only PTT was recovered from Finland and Russia although both forms were earlier equally common in Finland. The reason for the shift in occurrence of forms in Finland remained uncertain. Both forms were found within several fields in Australia. Sexual reproduction of P. teres was supported by recover of both mating types in equal ratio in those areas although the prevalence of sexual mating seems to be less in Finland than in Australia. Population from Krasnodar was an exception since only one mating type was found in there. Based on the substantial high genotypic variation in Krasnodar it was suggested go represent an old P. teres population, whereas the Australian samples were suggested to represent newer populations. In conclusion, P. teres populations are differentiated at several levels. Human assistance in dispersal of P. teres on infected barley seed is obvious and decreases the differentiation among populations. This can increase the plant protection problems caused by this pathogen. P. teres is capable of sexual reproduction in several areas but the prevalence varies. Based on these findings it is apparent that P. teres has the potential to pose more serious problems in barley cultivation if plant protection is neglected. Therefore, good agricultural practices, including crop rotation and the use of healthy seed, are recommended.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Accurate mass-based analysis in human sport doping control : Application of liquid chromatography - time-of-flight mass spectrometry

Human sport doping control analysis is a complex and challenging task for anti-doping laboratories. The List of Prohibited Substances and Methods, updated annually by World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), consists of hundreds of chemically and pharmacologically different low and high molecular weight compounds. This poses a considerable challenge for laboratories to analyze for them all in a limited amount of time from a limited sample aliquot. The continuous expansion of the Prohibited List obliges laboratories to keep their analytical methods updated and to research new available methodologies. In this thesis, an accurate mass-based analysis employing liquid chromatography - time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC-TOFMS) was developed and validated to improve the power of doping control analysis. New analytical methods were developed utilizing the high mass accuracy and high information content obtained by TOFMS to generate comprehensive and generic screening procedures. The suitability of LC-TOFMS for comprehensive screening was demonstrated for the first time in the field with mass accuracies better than 1 mDa. Further attention was given to generic sample preparation, an essential part of screening analysis, to rationalize the whole work flow and minimize the need for several separate sample preparation methods. Utilizing both positive and negative ionization allowed the detection of almost 200 prohibited substances. Automatic data processing produced a Microsoft Excel based report highlighting the entries fulfilling the criteria of the reverse data base search (retention time (RT), mass accuracy, isotope match). The quantitative performance of LC-TOFMS was demonstrated with morphine, codeine and their intact glucuronide conjugates. After a straightforward sample preparation the compounds were analyzed directly without the need for hydrolysis, solvent transfer, evaporation or reconstitution. The hydrophilic interaction technique (HILIC) provided good chromatographic separation, which was critical for the morphine glucuronide isomers. A wide linear range (50-5000 ng/ml) with good precision (RSD<10%) and accuracy (±10%) was obtained, showing comparable or better performance to other methods used. In-source collision-induced dissociation (ISCID) allowed confirmation analysis with three diagnostic ions with a median mass accuracy of 1.08 mDa and repeatable ion ratios fulfilling WADA s identification criteria. The suitability of LC-TOFMS for screening of high molecular weight doping agents was demonstrated with plasma volume expanders (PVE), namely dextran and hydroxyethylstarch (HES). Specificity of the assay was improved, since interfering matrix compounds were removed by size exclusion chromatography (SEC). ISCID produced three characteristic ions with an excellent mean mass accuracy of 0.82 mDa at physiological concentration levels. In summary, by combining TOFMS with a proper sample preparation and chromatographic separation, the technique can be utilized extensively in doping control laboratories for comprehensive screening of chemically different low and high molecular weight compounds, for quantification of threshold substances and even for confirmation. LC-TOFMS rationalized the work flow in doping control laboratories by simplifying the screening scheme, expediting reporting and minimizing the analysis costs. Therefore LC-TOFMS can be exploited widely in doping control, and the need for several separate analysis techniques is reduced.

The Biocontrol Agent Phlebiopsis gigantea: Efficacy and Impacts on the Stump Bacterial Biota and Conifer tree Defences

Phlebiopsis gigantea has been for a long time known as a strong competitor against Heterobasidion annosum and intensively applied as a biological control agent on stump surfaces of Picea abies in Fennoscandia. However, the mechanism underlying its antagonistic activity is still unknown. A primary concern is the possible impact of P. gigantea treatment on resident non-target microbial biota of conifer stumps. Additional risk factor is the potential of P. gigantea to acquire a necrotrophic habit through adaptation to living wood tissues. This study focused on the differential screening of several P. gigantea isolates from diverse geographical sources as well as the use of breeding approach to enhance the biocontrol efficacy against H. annosum infection. The results showed a significant positive correlation between growth rate in wood and high biocontrol efficacy. Furthermore, with aid of breeding approach, several progeny strains were obtained that had better growth rate and control efficacy than parental isolates. To address the issue of the potential of P. gigantea to acquire necrotrophic capability, a combination of histochemical, molecular and transcript profiling (454 sequencing) were used to investigate the interactions between these two fungi and ten year old P. sylvestris seedlings. The results revealed that both P. gigantea and H. annosum provoked strong necrotic lesions, but after prolonged incubation, P. gigantea lesions shrank and ceased to expand further. Tree seedlings pre-treated with P. gigantea further restricted H. annosum-induced necrosis and had elevated transcript levels of genes important for lignification, cell death regulation and jasmonic acid signalling. These suggest that induced localized resistance is a contributory factor for the biocontrol efficacy of P.gigantea, and it has a comparatively limited necrotrophic capability than H. annosum. Finally, to investigate the potential impact of P. gigantea on the stump bacterial biota, 16S rDNA isolated from tissue samples from stumps of P. abies after 1-, 6- and 13-year post treatment was sequenced using bar-coded 454 Titanium pyrosequencing. Proteobacteria were found to be the most abundant at the initial stages of stump decay but were selectively replaced by Acidobacteria at advanced stages of the decay. Moreover, P. gigantea treatment significantly decreased the bacterial richness at initial decay stage in the stumps. Over time, the bacterial community in the stumps gradually recovered and the negative effects of P. gigantea was attenuated.

Mechanism-based inhibition of CYP2C8 by gemfibrozil in humans : characterisation of time and dose relationships

Drug-drug interactions may cause serious, even fatal clinical consequences. Therefore, it is important to examine the interaction potential of new chemical entities early in drug development. Mechanism-based inhibition is a pharmacokinetic interaction type, which causes irreversible loss of enzyme activity and can therefore lead to unusually profound and long-lasting consequences. The in vitro in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) of drug-drug interactions caused by mechanism-based inhibition is challenging. Consequently, many of these interactions have remained unrecognised for many years. The concomitant use of the fibrate-class lipid-lowering agent gemfibrozil increases the concentrations of some drugs and their effects markedly. Even fatal cases of rhabdomyolysis occurred in patients administering gemfibrozil and cerivastatin concomitantly. One of the main mechanisms behind this effect is the mechanism-based inhibition of the cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2C8 enzyme by a glucuronide metabolite of gemfibrozil leading to increased cerivastatin concentrations. Although the clinical use of gemfibrozil has clearly decreased during recent years, gemfibrozil is still needed in some special cases. To enable safe use of gemfibrozil concomitantly with other drugs, information concerning the time and dose relationships of CYP2C8 inhibition by gemfibrozil should be known. This work was carried out as four in vivo clinical drug-drug interaction studies to examine the time and dose relationships of the mechanism-based inhibitory effect of gemfibrozil on CYP2C8. The oral antidiabetic drug repaglinide was used as a probe drug for measuring CYP2C8 activity in healthy volunteers. In this work, mechanism-based inhibition of the CYP2C8 enzyme by gemfibrozil was found to occur rapidly in humans. The inhibitory effect developed to its maximum already when repaglinide was given 1-3 h after gemfibrozil intake. In addition, the inhibition was shown to abate slowly. A full recovery of CYP2C8 activity, as measured by repaglinide metabolism, was achieved 96 h after cessation of gemfibrozil treatment. The dose-dependency of the mechanism-based inhibition of CYP2C8 by gemfibrozil was shown for the first time in this work. CYP2C8 activity was halved by a single 30 mg dose of gemfibrozil or by twice daily administration of less than 30 mg of gemfibrozil. Furthermore, CYP2C8 activity was decreased over 90% by a single dose of 900 mg gemfibrozil or twice daily dosing of approximately 100 mg gemfibrozil. In addition, with the application of physiological models to the data obtained in the dose-dependency studies, the major role of mechanism-based inhibition of CYP2C8 in the interaction between gemfibrozil and repaglinide was confirmed. The results of this work enhance the proper use of gemfibrozil and the safety of patients. The information related to time-dependency of CYP2C8 inhibition by gemfibrozil may also give new insights in order to improve the IVIVE of the drug-drug interactions of new chemical entities. The information obtained by this work may be utilised also in the design of clinical drug-drug interaction studies in the future.