Population projection for Namibia 2011-2020 - With an estimation of the impact of HIV/AIDS

This study presents a population projection for Namibia for years 2011–2020. In many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, including Namibia, the population growth is still continuing even though the fertility rates have declined. However, many of these countries suffer from a large HIV epidemic that is slowing down the population growth. In Namibia, the epidemic has been severe. Therefore, it is important to assess the effect of HIV/AIDS on the population of Namibia in the future. Demographic research on Namibia has not been very extensive, and data on population is not widely available. According to the studies made, fertility has been shown to be generally declining and mortality has been significantly increasing due to AIDS. Previous population projections predict population growth for Namibia in the near future, yet HIV/AIDS is affecting the future population developments. For the projection constructed in this study, data on population is taken from the two most recent censuses, from 1991 and 2001. Data on HIV is available from HIV Sentinel Surveys 1992–2008, which test pregnant women for HIV in antenatal clinics. Additional data are collected from different sources and recent studies. The projection is made with software (EPP and Spectrum) specially designed for developing countries with scarce data. The projection includes two main scenarios which have different assumptions concerning the development of the HIV epidemic. In addition, two hypothetical scenarios are made: the first considering the case where HIV epidemic would never have existed and the second considering the case where HIV treatment would never have existed. The results indicate population growth for Namibia. Population in the 2001 census was 1.83 million and is projected to result in 2.38/2.39 million in 2020 in the first two scenarios. Without HIV, population would be 2.61 million and without treatment 2.30 million in 2020. Urban population is growing faster than rural. Even though AIDS is increasing mortality, the past high fertility rates still keep young adult age groups quite large. The HIV epidemic shows to be slowing down, but it is still increasing the mortality of the working-aged population. The initiation of HIV treatment in 2004 in the public sector seems to have had an effect on many projected indicators, diminishing the impact of HIV on the population. For example, the rise of mortality is slowing down.

Perinatal mortality and maternal health in rural China

Background and context Since the economic reforms of 1978, China has been acclaimed as a remarkable economy, achieving 9% annual growth per head for more than 25 years. However, China's health sector has not fared well. The population health gains slowed down and health disparities increased. In the field of health and health care, significant progress in maternal care has been achieved. However, there still remain important disparities between the urban and rural areas and among the rural areas in terms of economic development. The excess female infant deaths and the rapidly increasing sex ratio at birth in the last decade aroused serious concerns among policy makers and scholars. Decentralization of the government administration and health sector reform impacts maternal care. Many studies using census data have been conducted to explore the determinants of a high sex ratio at birth, but no agreement has been so far reached on the possible contributing factors. No study using family planning system data has been conducted to explore perinatal mortality and sex ratio at birth and only few studies have examined the impact of the decentralization of government and health sector reforms on the provision and organization of maternal care in rural China. Objectives The general objective of this study was to investigate the state of perinatal health and maternal care and their determinants in rural China under the historic context of major socioeconomic reforms and the one child family planning policy. The specific objectives of the study included: 1) to study pregnancy outcomes and perinatal health and their correlates in a rural Chinese county; 2) to examine the issue of sex ratio at birth and its determinants in a rural Chinese county; 3) to explore the patterns of provision, utilization, and content of maternal care in a rural Chinese county; 4) to investigate the changes in the use of maternal care in China from 1991 to 2003. Materials and Methods This study is based on a project for evaluating the prenatal care programme in Dingyuan county in 1999-2003, Anhui province, China and a nationwide household health survey to describe the changes in maternal care utilization. The approaches used included a retrospective cohort study, cross sectional interview surveys, informant interviews, observations and the use of statistical data. The data sources included the following: 1) A cohort of pregnant women followed from pregnancy up to 7 days after birth in 20 townships in the study county, collecting information on pregnancy outcomes using family planning records; 2) A questionnaire interview survey given to women who gave birth between 2001 and 2003; 3) Various statistical and informant surveys data collected from the study county; 4) Three national household health interview survey data sets (1993-2003) were utilized, and reanalyzed to described the changes in maternity care utilization. Relative risks (RR) and their confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for comparison between parity, approval status, infant sex and township groups. The chi-square test was used to analyse the disparity of use of maternal care between and within urban and rural areas and its trend across the years in China. Logistic regression was used to analyse the factors associated with hospital delivery in rural areas. Results There were 3697 pregnancies in the study cohort, resulting in 3092 live births in a total population of 299463 in the 20 study townships during 1999-2000. The average age at pregnancy in the cohort was 25.9 years. Of the women, 61% were childless, 38% already had one child and 0.3% had two children before the current pregnancy. About 90% of approved pregnancies ended in a live birth while 73% of the unapproved ones were aborted. The perinatal mortality rate was 69 per thousand births. If the 30 induced abortions in which the gestational age was more than 28 weeks had been counted as perinatal deaths, the perinatal mortality rate would have been as high as 78 per thousand. The perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the wealth of the township. Approximately two thirds of the perinatal deaths occurred in the early neonatal period. Both the still birth rate and the early neonatal death rate increased with parity. The risk of a stillbirth in a second pregnancy was almost four times that for a first pregnancy, while the risk of early neonatal deaths doubled. The early neonatal mortality rate was twice as high for female as for male infants. The sex difference in the early neonatal mortality rate was mainly attributable to mortality in second births. The male early neonatal mortality rate was not affected by parity, while the female early neonatal mortality rate increased dramatically with parity: it was about six times higher for second births than for first births. About 82% early neonatal deaths happened within 24 hours after birth, and during that time, girls were almost three times more likely to die than boys. The death rate of females on the day of birth increased much more sharply with parity than that of males. The total sex ratio at birth of 3697 registered pregnancies was 152 males to 100 females, with 118 and 287 in first and second pregnancies, respectively. Among unapproved pregnancies, there were almost 5 live-born boys for each girl. Most prenatal and delivery care was to be taken care of in township hospitals. At the village level, there were small private clinics. There was no limitation period for the provision of prenatal and postnatal care by private practitioners. They were not permitted to provide delivery care by the county health bureau, but as some 12% of all births occurred either at home or at private clinics; some village health workers might have been involved. The county level hospitals served as the referral centers for the township hospitals in the county. However, there was no formal regulation or guideline on how the referral system should work. Whether or not a woman was referred to a higher level hospital depended on the individual midwife's professional judgment and on the clients' compliance. The county health bureau had little power over township hospitals, because township hospitals had in the decentralization process become directly accountable to the township government. In the township and county hospitals only 10-20% of the recurrent costs were funded by local government (the township hospital was funded by the township government and the county hospital was funded by the county government) and the hospitals collected user fees to balance their budgets. Also the staff salaries depended on fee incomes by the hospital. The hospitals could define the user charges themselves. Prenatal care consultations were however free in most township hospitals. None of the midwives made postnatal home visits, because of low profit of these services. The three national household health survey data showed that the proportion of women receiving their first prenatal visit within 12 weeks increased greatly from the early to middle 1990s in all areas except for large cities. The increase was much larger in the rural areas, reducing the urban-rural difference from more than 4 times to about 1.4 times. The proportion of women that received antenatal care visits meeting the Ministry of Health s standard (at least 5 times) in the rural areas increased sharply from 12% in 1991-1993 to 36% in 2001-2003. In rural areas, the proportion increase was much faster in less developed areas than in developed areas. The hospital delivery rate increased slightly from 90% to 94% in urban areas while the proportion increased from 27% to 69% in rural areas. The fastest change was found to be in type 4 rural areas, where the utilization even quadrupled. The overall difference between rural and urban areas was substantially narrowed over the period. Multiple logistic regression analysis shows that time periods, residency in rural or urban areas, income levels, age group, education levels, delivery history, occupation, health insurance and distance from the nearest health care facilities were significantly associated with hospital delivery rates. Conclusions 1. Perinatal mortality in this study was much higher than that for urban areas as well as any reported rate from specific studies in rural areas of China. Previous studies in which calculations of infant mortality were not based on epidemiological surveys have been shown to underestimate the rates by more than 50%. 2. Routine statistics collected by the Chinese family planning system proved to be a reliable data source for studying perinatal health, including still births, neonatal deaths, sex ratio at birth and among newborns. National Household Health Survey data proved to be a useful and reliable data source for studying population health and health services. Prior to this research there were few studies in these areas available to international audiences. 3.Though perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the level of township economic development, the excess female early neonatal mortality rate contributed much more to high perinatal mortality rate than economic factors. This was likely a result of the role of the family planning policy and the traditional preferences for sons, which leads to lethal neglect of female newborns and high perinatal mortality. 4. The selective abortions of female foetuses were likely to contribute most to the high sex ratio at birth. The underreporting of female births seemed to have played a secondary role. The higher early neonatal mortality rate in second-born as compared to first-born children, particularly in females, may indicate that neglect or poorer care of female newborn infants also contributes to the high sex ratio at birth or among newborns. Existing family planning policy proved not to effectively control the steadily increased birth sex ratio. 5. The rural-urban gap in service utilization was on average significantly narrowed in terms of maternal healthcare in China from 1991 to 2003. This demonstrates that significant achievements in reducing inequities can be made through a combination of socio-economic development and targeted investments in improving health services, including infrastructure, staff capacities, and subsidies to reduce the costs of service utilization for the poorest. However, the huge gap which persisted among cities of different size and within different types of rural areas indicated the need for further efforts to support the poorest areas. 6. Hospital delivery care in the study county was better accepted by women because most of women think delivery care was very important while prenatal and postnatal care were not. Hospital delivery care was more systematically provided and promoted than prenatal and postnatal care by township hospital in the study area. The reliance of hospital staff income on user fees gave the hospitals an incentive to put more emphasis on revenue generating activities such as delivery care instead of prenatal and postnatal care, since delivery care generated much profits than prenatal and postnatal care . Recommendations 1. It is essential for the central government to re-assess and modify existing family planning policies. In order to keep national sex balance, the existing practice of one couple one child in urban areas and at-least-one-son a couple in rural areas should be gradually changed to a two-children-a-couple policy throughout the country. The government should establish a favourable social security policy for couples, especially for rural couples who have only daughters, with particular emphasis on their pension and medical care insurance, combined with an educational campaign for equal rights for boys and girls in society. 2. There is currently no routine vital-statistics registration system in rural China. Using the findings of this study, the central government could set up a routine vital-statistics registration system using family planning routine work records, which could be used by policy makers and researchers. 3. It is possible for the central and provincial government to invest more in the less developed and poor rural areas to increase the access of pregnant women in these areas to maternal care services. Central government together with local government should gradually provide free maternal care including prenatal and postnatal as well as delivery care to the women in poor and less developed rural areas. 4. Future research could be done to explore if county and the township level health care sector and the family planning system could be merged to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of maternal and child care. 5. Future research could be done to explore the relative contribution of maternal care, economic development and family planning policy on perinatal and child health using prospective cohort studies and community based randomized trials. Key words: perinatal health, perinatal mortality, stillbirth, neonatal death, sex selective abortion, sex ratio at birth, family planning, son preference, maternal care, prenatal care, postnatal care, equity, China

Population genetics of the invasive plant species Impatiens glandulifera in Southern Finland

Biological invasions affect biodiversity worldwide, and, consequently, the invaded ecosystems may suffer from significant losses in economic and cultural values. Impatiens glandulifera Royle (Balsaminaceae) is an invasive annual herb, native to the western Himalayas and introduced into Europe in the 19th century as a garden ornamental plant. The massive invasion of I. glandulifera is due to its high reproductive output, rapid growth and its ability to outcompete native species. In Finland, the first observations regarding the presence of I. glandulifera date from the year 1947, and today it is considered a serious problem in riparian habitats. The aim of this master’s thesis research is to reveal the population genetic structure of I. glandulifera in Finland and to find out whether there have been one or multiple invasions in Finland. The study focuses on investigating the origin of I. glandulifera in Southern Finland, by comparing plant samples from the Helsinki region with those from its native region and other regions of invasion. Samples from four populations in Helsinki and from the United Kingdom, Canada, India and Pakistan were collected and genotyped using 11 microsatellite markers. The genetic analyses were evaluated using the programs Arlequin and Structure. The results of the genetic analyses suggested that I. glandulifera has been introduced to Finland more than once. Multiple introductions are supported by the higher level of genetic diversity detected within and among Finnish populations than would be expected for a single introduction. Results of the Bayesian Structure analysis divided the four Finnish populations into four clusters. This geographical structure was further supported by pairwise Fst values among populations. The causes and potential consequences of such multiple introductions of I. glandulifera in Finland and further perspectives are discussed.

Peritoneal dialysis and neurological outcome in infants and small children

Although improved outcomes for children on peritoneal dialysis (PD) have been seen in recent years, the youngest patients continue to demonstrate inferior growth, more frequent infections, more neurological sequelae, and higher mortality compared to older children. Also, maintain-ing normal intravascular volume status, especially in anuric patients, has proven difficult. This study was designed to treat and monitor these youngest PD patients, which are relatively many due to the high prevalence of congenital nephrotic syndrome of the Finnish type (CNF, NPHS1) in Finland, with a strict protocol, to evaluate the results and to improve metabolic balance, growth, and development. A retrospective analysis of 23 children under two years of age at onset of PD, treated between 1995 and 2000, was performed to obtain a control population for our prospective PD study. Respectively, 21 patients less than two years of age at the beginning of PD were enrolled in prospective studies between 2001 and 2005. Medication for uremia and nutrition were care-fully adjusted during PD. Laboratory parameters and intravascular volume status were regu-larly analyzed. Growth was analyzed and compared with midparental height. In a prospective neurological study, the risk factors for development and the neurological development was determined. Brain images were surveyed. Hearing was tested. In a retrospective neurological study, the data of six NPHS1 patients with a congruent neurological syndrome was analyzed. All these patients had a serious dyskinetic cerebral palsy-like syndrome with muscular dysto-nia and athetosis (MDA). They also had a hearing defect. Metabolic control was mainly good in both PD patient groups. Hospitalization time shortened clearly. The peritonitis rate diminished. Hypertension was a common problem. Left ventricular hypertrophy decreased during the prospective study period. None of the patients in either PD group had pulmonary edema or dialysis-related seizures. Growth was good and catch-up growth was documented in most patients in both patient groups during PD. Mortality was low (5% in prospective and 9% in retrospective PD patients). In the prospective PD patient group 11 patients (52%) had some risk factor for their neuro-development originating from the predialysis period. The neurological problems, detected be-fore PD, did not worsen during PD and none of the patients developed new neurological com-plications during PD. Brain infarcts were detected in four (19%) and other ischemic lesions in three patients (14%). At the end of this study, 29% of the prospectively followed patients had a major impairment of their neurodevelopment and 43% only minor impairment. In the NPHS1+MDA patients, no clear explanation for the neurological syndrome was found. The brain MRI showed increased signal intensity in the globus pallidus area. Kernic-terus was contemplated to be causative in the hypoproteinemic newborns but it could not be proven. Mortality was as high as 67%. Our results for young PD patients were promising. Metabolic control was acceptable and growth was good. However, the children were significantly smaller when compared to their midparental height. Although many patients were found to have neurological impairment at the end of our follow-up period, PD was a safe treatment whereby the neurodevelopment did not worsen during PD.

Studies on Causes of Multiple Sclerosis : From Genes to Transcriptome

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of neurological disability in young adults, affecting more than two million people worldwide. It manifests as a chronic inflammation in the central nervous system (CNS) and causes demyelination and neurodegeneration. Depending on the location of the demyelinated plaques and axonal loss, a variety of symptoms can be observed including deficits in vision, coordination, balance and movement. With a typical age of onset at 20-40 years, the social and economic impacts of MS on lives of the patients and their families are considerable. Unfortunately the current treatments are relatively inefficient and the development of more effective treatments has been impeded by our limited understanding of the causes and pathogenesis of MS. Risk of MS is higher in biological relatives of MS patients than in the general population. Twin and adoption studies have shown that familial clustering of MS is explained by shared genetic factors rather than by shared familial environment. While the involvement of the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes was first discovered four decades ago, additional genetic risk factors have only recently been identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Current evidence suggests that MS is a highly polygenic disease with perhaps hundreds of common variants with relatively modest effects contributing to susceptibility. Despite extensive research, the majority of these risk factors still remain to be identified. In this thesis the aim was to identify novel genes and pathways involved in MS. Using genome-wide microarray technology, gene expression levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from 12 MS patients and 15 controls were profiled and more than 600 genes with altered expression in MS were identified. Three of five selected findings, DEFA1A3, LILRA4 and TNFRSF25, were successfully replicated in an independent sample. Increased expression of DEFA1A3 in MS is a particularly interesting observation, because its elevated levels have previously been reported also in several other autoimmune diseases. A systematic review of seven microarray studies was then performed leading to identification of 229 genes, in which either decreased or increased expression in MS had been reported in at least two studies. In general there was relatively little overlap across the experiments: 11 of the 229 genes had been reported in three studies and only HSPA1A in four studies. Nevertheless, these 229 genes were associated with several immunological pathways including interleukin pathways related to type 2 and type 17 helper T cells and regulatory T cells. However, whether these pathways are involved in causing MS or related to secondary processes activated after disease onset remains to be investigated. The 229 genes were also compared with loci identified in published MS GWASs. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in 17 of the 229 loci had been reported to be associated with MS with P-value less than 0.0001 including variants in CXCR4 and SAPS2, which were the only loci where evidence for correlation between the associated variant and gene expression was found. The CXCR4 variant was further tested for association with MS in a large case-control sample and the previously reported suggestive association was replicated (P-value is 0.0004). Finally, common genetic variants in candidate genes, which had been selected on the basis of showing association with other autoimmune diseases (MYO9B) or showing differential expression in MS in our study (DEFA1A3, LILRA4 and TNFRSF25), were tested for association with MS, but no evidence of association was found. In conclusion, through a systematic review of genome-wide expression studies in MS we have identified several promising candidate genes and pathways for future studies. In addition, we have replicated a previously suggested association of a SNP variant upstream of CXCR4 with MS. Keywords: autoimmune disease, common variant, CXCR4, DEFA1A3, HSPA1A,gene expression, genetic association, GWAS, MS, multiple sclerosis, systematic review

Intraspecific variation in brain size and architecture : population divergence and phenotypic plasticity

Brain size and architecture exhibit great evolutionary and ontogenetic variation. Yet, studies on population variation (within a single species) in brain size and architecture, or in brain plasticity induced by ecologically relevant biotic factors have been largely overlooked. Here, I address the following questions: (i) do locally adapted populations differ in brain size and architecture, (ii) can the biotic environment induce brain plasticity, and (iii) do locally adapted populations differ in levels of brain plasticity? In the first two chapters I report large variation in both absolute and relative brain size, as well as in the relative sizes of brain parts, among divergent nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) populations. Some traits show habitat-dependent divergence, implying natural selection being responsible for the observed patterns. Namely, marine sticklebacks have relatively larger bulbi olfactorii (chemosensory centre) and telencephala (involved in learning) than pond sticklebacks. Further, I demonstrate the importance of common garden studies in drawing firm evolutionary conclusions. In the following three chapters I show how the social environment and perceived predation risk shapes brain development. In common frog (Rana temporaria) tadpoles, I demonstrate that under the highest per capita predation risk, tadpoles develop smaller brains than in less risky situations, while high tadpole density results in enlarged tectum opticum (visual brain centre). Visual contact with conspecifics induces enlarged tecta optica in nine-spined sticklebacks, whereas when only olfactory cues from conspecifics are available, bulbus olfactorius become enlarged.Perceived predation risk results in smaller hypothalami (complex function) in sticklebacks. Further, group-living has a negative effect on relative brain size in the competition-adapted pond sticklebacks, but not in the predation-adapted marine sticklebacks. Perceived predation risk induces enlargement of bulbus olfactorius in pond sticklebacks, but not in marine sticklebacks who have larger bulbi olfactorii than pond fish regardless of predation. In sum, my studies demonstrate how applying a microevolutionary approach can help us to understand the enormous variation observed in the brains of wild animals a point-of-view which I high-light in the closing review chapter of my thesis.

Asemakaavoitus Helsingin seudun kasvun hallinnassa

Many Finnish municipalities need to control their growth. In this research growth is understood as developments of land utilisation and also as a wide range of other changes that have mainly ap-peared as a result of a long term growth in population. The development growth control contains four areas: 1. adequate productivity of town planning, 2. stationing the growth to needs led and for sustainable developments, 3. quality of the developing environment, and 4. producing growth with communicative and transparent process. The aim of the research is to represent connection between town planning and development growth control. Research defines the role of town planning in the municipalities development growth control. In addition research focuses on links between town planning and development growth control in history, present and in the development work for the future. According to the hypothesis the extensive examination of town planning enables better growth control and promotes appropriate response to municipal changes regarding housing delivery. As an example there are five outskirt municipalities in the Helsinki region. They are called Kirkkonummi, Vihti, Nurmijärvi, Tuusula and Sipoo. The decision was to use examples based on a contingence theory. According to the theory there is no one correct way to operate. Therefore development should be based on individual municipal needs. In the research, municipality s needs were collected by 20 semi- structured interviews from municipal officials. In addition there were group interviews in Uusimaa Regional Council and in Uusimaa Regional Environmental Centre. There was also secondary material collected from official papers and statistics. Operationalisation was the analysis tool between empiric and literature reviews. The role of town planning has evolved during the 20th century from a more simple town plan level to operative stage in town planning hierarchy. Outskirt municipalities town planning was established during the 1960s. Since then one of the most important aims in the town planning has been to produce growth and building possibilities. Currently the challenge is to reach the satisfying rate of productivity and to meet increased housing demand. Other challenges include locating the appropriate geographical areas for growth; and the balance between required developments and planning permission decisions. Findings concluded that town planning should be more viable and it should have better ability to co-operate and operate in the changing operational environment. Municipality s ability to receive growth can increase and growth control can advance by planned and workable town planning. It is essential to take wide perspective of the each municipality's unique needs to improve productivity rather than to focus simply on productivity.