An Empirical Investigation of Value-at-Risk in Long and Short Trading Positions

This paper uses the Value-at-Risk approach to define the risk in both long and short trading positions. The investigation is done on some major market indices(Japanese, UK, German and US). The performance of models that takes into account skewness and fat-tails are compared to symmetric models in relation to both the specific model for estimating the variance, and the distribution of the variance estimate used as input in the VaR estimation. The results indicate that more flexible models not necessarily perform better in predicting the VaR forecast; the reason for this is most probably the complexity of these models. A general result is that different methods for estimating the variance are needed for different confidence levels of the VaR, and for the different indices. Also, different models are to be used for the left respectively the right tail of the distribution.

Short-Horizon Asymmetric Mean-Reversion and Overreactions: Evidence from the Nordic Stock Markets

This paper examines the asymmetric behavior of conditional mean and variance. Short-horizon mean-reversion behavior in mean is modeled with an asymmetric nonlinear autoregressive model, and the variance is modeled with an Exponential GARCH in Mean model. The results of the empirical investigation of the Nordic stock markets indicates that negative returns revert faster to positive returns when positive returns generally persist longer. Asymmetry in both mean and variance can be seen on all included markets and are fairly similar. Volatility rises following negative returns more than following positive returns which is an indication of overreactions. Negative returns lead to increased variance and positive returns leads even to decreased variance.

Owners' Way or the Highway: Short-term Expectations and Owner Impatience

Increased media exposure to layoffs and corporate quarterly financial reporting have created arguable a common perception – especially favored by the media itself – that the companies have been forced to improve their financial performance from quarter to quarter. Academically the relevant question is whether the companies themselves feel that they are exposed to short-term pressure to perform even if it means that they have to compromise company’s long-term future. This paper studies this issue using results from a survey conducted among the 500 largest companies in Finland. The results show that companies in general feel moderate short-term pressure, with reasonable dispersion across firms. There seems to be a link between the degree of pressure felt, and the firm’s ownership structure, i.e. we find support for the existence of short-term versus long-term owners. We also find significant ownership related differences, in line with expectations, in how such short-term pressure is reflected in actual decision variables such as the investment criteria used.

Strömungen in der mexikanischen Musik

A short article summarizing the most visible streams of Mexican music along the last century. Special attention is paid to the intellectual and idiosyncratic components which are considered as elements of authenticity in Mexican culture.

Forest governance and climate change adaptation : Case studies of four African countries

Africa is threatened by climate change. The adaptive capacity of local communities continues to be weakened by ineffective and inefficient livelihood strategies and inappropriate development interventions. One of the greatest challenges for climate change adaptation in Africa is related to the governance of natural resources used by vulnerable poor groups as assets for adaptation. Practical and good governance activities for adaptation in Africa is urgently and much needed to support adaptation actions, interventions and planning. The adaptation role of forests has not been as prominent in the international discourse and actions as their mitigation role. This study therefore focused on the forest as one of the natural resources used for adaptation. The general objective of this research was to assess the extent to which cases of current forest governance practices in four African countries Burkina Faso, The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ghana and Sudan are supportive to the adaptation of vulnerable societies and ecosystems to impacts of climate change. Qualitative and quantitative analyses from surveys, expert consultations and group discussions were used in analysing the case studies. The entire research was guided by three conceptual sets of thinking forest governance, climate change vulnerability and ecosystem services. Data for the research were collected from selected ongoing forestry activities and programmes. The study mainly dealt with forest management policies and practices that can improve the adaptation of forest ecosystems (Study I) and the adaptive capacity through the management of forest resources by vulnerable farmers (Studies II, III, IV and V). It was found that adaptation is not part of current forest policies, but, instead, policies contain elements of risk management practices, which are also relevant to the adaptation of forest ecosystems. These practices include, among others, the management of forest fires, forest genetic resources, non-timber resources and silvicultural practices. Better livelihood opportunities emerged as the priority for the farmers. These vulnerable farmers had different forms of forest management. They have a wide range of experience and practical knowledge relevant to ensure and achieve livelihood improvement alongside sustainable management and good governance of natural resources. The contributions of traded non-timber forest products to climate change adaptation appear limited for local communities, based on their distribution among the stakeholders in the market chain. Plantation (agro)forestry, if well implemented and managed by communities, has a high potential in reducing socio-ecological vulnerability by increasing the food production and restocking degraded forest lands. Integration of legal arrangements with continuous monitoring, evaluation and improvement may drive this activity to support short, medium and long term expectations related to adaptation processes. The study concludes that effective forest governance initiatives led by vulnerable poor groups represent one practical way to improve the adaptive capacities of socio-ecological systems against the impacts of climate change in Africa.

The function of NR3B and NR4A orphan nuclear receptors in osteoblasts

Nuclear receptors (NRs) comprise a large family of proteins that mediate the effects of small lipophilic molecules such as steroid hormones. In addition, there are a group of NRs which lack identified natural ligands and are referred as orphan NRs. In this thesis, the function of two such orphan NR families, the NR3B (ERRα, ERRβ and ERRγ) and the NR4A family (NGFI-B, Nurr1 and Nor1), was studied. NR3B and NR4A receptors regulate many biological processes such as energy metabolism and carcinogenesis. In addition, NR3B and NR4A receptors are expressed in bone. Therefore, the signaling and function of NR3B and NR4A orphan nuclear receptors was studied specifically in osteoblasts. NR4A receptors were found to be regulated by NR3B receptors and the Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway as ERRα, ERRγ and β-catenin repressed the transcriptional activity of NR4A receptors in U2-OS cells. NGFI-B was found to repress the transcriptional activity of ERRγ in HeLa cells. The phytoestrogen equol was identified as a new agonist for ERRγ and ERRβ in PC-3, U2-OS, and SaOS-2 cells. Equol increased the transcriptional activity of ERRγ by increasing ERRγ co-activator binding and by inducing a conformational change in the ligand binding pocket of ERRγ. The growth inhibitory effect of equol on PC-3 prostate cancer cells was decreased by blocking ERRγ expression by siRNA. Therefore, ERRγ could mediate some of the beneficial health effects of equol. The Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway is important for the differentiation and function of osteoblasts. NR3B and NR4A receptors were found to repress the transcriptional activity mediated by β-catenin in U2-OS cells. The mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) isolated from ERRα knockout (KO) mice showed diminished proliferation and osteoblastic differentiation compared to the wild-type cells. The overexpression of ERRα in osteoblastic MC3T3-E1 cell line increased their mineralization. Bone sialoprotein (BSP) was shown to be a direct target gene for ERRα and ERRγ as the BSP promoter was activated by ERRα or ERRγ and PGC-1α in HeLa cells. The adipogenic differentiation of ERRα KO MSCs was also decreased and they expressed less adipogenic marker genes. In conclusion, the studies described in this thesis demonstrated that the transcriptional activity of NR3B and NR4A receptors can be regulated by other orphan NRs and signaling pathways in osteoblasts. NR3B receptors can also be regulated by ligands and a new agonist, equol, was identified for ERRβ and ERRγ. New roles for NR3B and NR4A were also identified as they were shown to converge with the Wnt signaling pathway in osteoblasts, ERRγ was shown to mediate the growth inhibitory effect of equol in prostate cancer cells, and ERRα was shown to regulate positively MSC proliferation, osteoblastic differentiation and adipogenesis.

Hyperfine effects in the nuclear magnetic resonance of paramagnetic molecules

Paramagnetic, or open-shell, systems are often encountered in the context of metalloproteins, and they are also an essential part of molecular magnets. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy is a powerful tool for chemical structure elucidation, but for paramagnetic molecules it is substantially more complicated than in the diamagnetic case. Before the present work, the theory of NMR of paramagnetic molecules was limited to spin-1/2 systems and it did not include relativistic corrections to the hyperfine effects. It also was not systematically expandable. --- The theory was first expanded by including hyperfine contributions up to the fourth power in the fine structure constant α. It was then reformulated and its scope widened to allow any spin state in any spatial symmetry. This involved including zero-field splitting effects. In both stages the theory was implemented into a separate analysis program. The different levels of theory were tested by demonstrative density functional calculations on molecules selected to showcase the relative strength of new NMR shielding terms. The theory was also tested in a joint experimental and computational effort to confirm assignment of 11 B signals. The new terms were found to be significant and comparable with the terms in the earlier levels of theory. The leading-order magnetic-field dependence of shielding in paramagnetic systems was formulated. The theory is now systematically expandable, allowing for higher-order field dependence and relativistic contributions. The prevailing experimental view of pseudocontact shift was found to be significantly incomplete, as it only includes specific geometric dependence, which is not present in most of the new terms introduced here. The computational uncertainty in density functional calculations of the Fermi contact hyperfine constant and zero-field splitting tensor sets a limit for quantitative prediction of paramagnetic shielding for now.

A modell of socially optimal hydro reservoir usage - yelding socially optimal outcomes in nordic electricity markets

An extensive electricity transmission network facilitates electricity trading between Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Currently most of the area's power generation is traded at NordPool, where the trading volumes have steadily increased since the early 1990's, when the exchange was founded. The Nordic electricity is expected to follow the current trend and further integrate with the other European electricity markets. Hydro power is the source for roughly a half of the supply in the Nordic electricity market and most of the hydro is generated in Norway. The dominating role of hydro power distinguishes the Nordic electricity market from most of the other market places. Production of hydro power varies mainly due to hydro reservoirs and demand for electricity. Hydro reservoirs are affected by water inflows that differ each year. The hydro reservoirs explain remarkably the behaviour of the Nordic electricity markets. Therefore among others, Kauppi and Liski (2008) have developed a model that analyzes the behaviour of the markets using hydro reservoirs as explanatory factors. Their model includes, for example, welfare loss due to socially suboptimal hydro reservoir usage, socially optimal electricity price, hydro reservoir storage and thermal reservoir storage; that are referred as outcomes. However, the model does not explain the real market condition but rather an ideal situation. In the model the market is controlled by one agent, i.e. one agent controls all the power generation reserves; it is referred to as a socially optimal strategy. Article by Kauppi and Liski (2008) includes an assumption where an individual agent has a certain fraction of market power, e.g. 20 % or 30 %. In order to maintain the focus of this thesis, this part of their paper is omitted. The goal of this thesis is two-fold. Firstly we expand the results from the socially optimal strategy for years 2006-08, as the earlier study finishes in 2005. The second objective is to improve on the methods from the previous study. This thesis results several outcomes (SPOT-price and welfare loss, etc.) due to socially optimal actions. Welfare loss is interesting as it describes the inefficiency of the market. SPOT-price is an important output for the market participants as it often has an effect on end users' electricity bills. Another function is to modify and try to improve the model by means of using more accurate input data, e.g. by considering pollution trade rights effect on input data. After modifications to the model, new welfare losses are calculated and compared with the same results before the modifications. The hydro reservoir has the higher explanatory significance in the model followed by thermal power. In Nordic markets, thermal power reserves are mostly nuclear power and other thermal sources (coal, natural gas, oil, peat). It can be argued that hydro and thermal reservoirs determine electricity supply. Roughly speaking, the model takes into account electricity demand and supply, and several parameters related to them (water inflow, oil price, etc.), yielding finally the socially optimal outcomes. The author of this thesis is not aware of any similar model being tested before. There have been some other studies that are close to the Kauppi and Liski (2008) model, but those have a somewhat different focus. For example, a specific feature in the model is the focus on long-run capacity usage that differs from the previous studies on short-run market power. The closest study to the model is from California's wholesale electricity markets that, however, uses different methodology. Work is constructed as follows.

K -shell diagram and hypersatellite spectra of 4d transition elements

The K-shell diagram (K alpha(1,2) and K beta(1,3)) and hypersatellite (HS) (K-h alpha(1,2)) spectra of Y, Zr, Mo, and Pd have been measured with high energy-resolution using photoexcitation by 90 keV synchrotron radiation. Comparison of the measured and ab initio calculated HS spectra demonstrates the importance of quantum electrodynamical (QED) effects for the HS spectra. Phenomenological fits of the measured spectra by Voigt functions yield accurate values for the shift of the HS from the diagram lines, the splitting of the HS lines, and their intensity ratio. Good agreement with theory was found for all quantities except for the intensity ratio, which is dominated by the intermediacy of the coupling of the angular momenta. The observed deviations imply that our current understanding of the variation of the coupling scheme from LS to jj across the periodic table may require some revision.

The function and regulation of the U11-48K protein in U12-dependent splicing

The removal of noncoding sequences, or introns, from the eukaryotic messenger RNA precursors is catalyzed by a ribonucleoprotein complex known as the spliceosome. In most eukaryotes, two distinct classes of introns exist, each removed by a specific type of spliceosome. The major, U2-type introns account for over 99 % of all introns, and are almost ubiquitous. The minor, U12-type introns are found in most but not all eukaryotes, and reside in conserved locations in a specific set of genes. Due to their slow excision rates, the U12-type introns are expected to be involved in the regulation of the genes containing them by inhibiting the maturation of the messenger RNAs. However, little information is currently available on how the activity of the U12-dependent spliceosome itself is regulated. The levels of many known splicing factors are regulated through unproductive alternative splicing events, which lead to inclusion of premature STOP codons, targeting the transcripts for destruction by the nonsense-mediated decay pathway. These alternative splice sites are typically found in highly conserved sequence elements, which also contain binding sites for factors regulating the activation of the splice sites. Often, the activation is achieved by binding of products of the gene in question, resulting in negative feedback loops. In this study, I show that U11-48K, a protein factor specific to the minor spliceosome, specifically recognizes the U12-type 5' splice site sequence, and is essential for proper function of the minor spliceosome. Furthermore, the expression of U11-48K is regulated through a feedback mechanism, which functions through conserved sequence elements that activate alternative splicing and nonsense-mediated decay. This mechanism is conserved from plants to animals, highlighting both the importance and early origin of this mechanism in regulating splicing factors. I also show that the feedback regulation of U11-48K is counteracted by a component of the major spliceosome, the U1 small nuclear ribonucleoprotein particle, as well as members of the hnRNP F/H protein family. These results thus suggest that the feedback mechanism is finely tuned by multiple factors to achieve precise control of the activity of the U12-dependent spliceosome.

Seasonal and short-term variation in denitrification and anammox at a coastal station on the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

Benthic processes were measured at a coastal deposition area in the northern Baltic Sea, covering all seasons. The N-2 production rates, 90-400 mu mol N m(-2) d(-1), were highest in autumn-early winter and lowest in spring. Heterotrophic bacterial production peaked unexpectedly late in the year, indicating that in addition to the temperature, the availability of carbon compounds suitable for the heterotrophic bacteria also plays a major role in regulating the denitrification rate. Anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) was measured in spring and autumn and contributed 10% and 15%, respectively, to the total N-2 production. The low percentage did, however, result in a significant error in the total N-2 production rate estimate, calculated using the isotope pairing technique. Anammox must be taken into account in the Gulf of Finland in future sediment nitrogen cycling research.

Elämää keskustassa ja kaupunkiseudun reunoilla. Urbaani ja jälkiesikaupungillinen elämäntyyli asumisen valinnoissa ja arkiliikkumisessa Helsingin seudulla.

The lifestyles of people living in single-family housing areas on the outskirts of the Greater Helsinki Region (GHR) are different from those living in inner city area. The urban structure of the GHR is concentrated in the capital on the one hand, and spread out across the outskirts on the other. Socioeconomic spatial divisions are evident as well-paid and educated residents move to the inner city or the single-family house dominated suburban neighbourhoods depending on their housing preferences and life situations. The following thesis explores how these lifestyles have emerged through the housing choices and daily mobility of the residents living in the new single-family housing areas on the outskirts of the GHR and the inner city. The study shows that, when it comes to lifestyles, residents on the outskirts of the region have different housing preferences and daily mobility patterns when compared with their inner city counterparts. Based on five different case study areas my results show that these differences are related to residents values, preferences and attitudes towards the neighbourhood, on the one hand, and limited by urban structure on the other. This also confirms earlier theoretical analyses and findings from the GHR. Residents who moved to the outskirts of Greater Helsinki Region and the apartment buildings of the inner city were similar in the basic elements of their housing preferences: they sought a safe and peaceful neighbourhood close to the natural environment. However, where housing choices, daily mobility and activities vary different lifestyles develop in both the outskirts and the inner city. More specifically, lifestyles in the city apartment blocks were inherently urban. Liveliness and highest order facilities were appreciated and daily mobility patterns were supported by diverse modes of transportation for the purposes of work, shopping and leisure time. On the outskirts, by contrast, lifestyles were largely post-suburban and child-friendliness appreciated. Due to the heterachical urban structure, daily mobility was more car-dependent since work, shopping and free time activities of the residents are more spread around the region. The urban structure frames the daily mobility on the outskirts of the region, but this is not to say that short local trips replace longer regional ones. This comparative case study was carried out in the single-family housing areas of Sundsberg in Kirkkonummi, Landbo in Helsinki and Ylästö in Vantaa, as well as in the inner city apartment building areas of Punavuori and Katajanokka in Helsinki. The data is comprised of residential surveys, interviews, and statistics and GIS data sets that illustrate regional daily mobility, socio-economic structure and vis-à-vis housing stock.