The Day of the Week Effect and Option Pricing - A Study of the German Option Market

The use of different time units in option pricing may lead to inconsistent estimates of time decay and spurious jumps in implied volatilities. Different time units in the pricing model leads to different implied volatilities although the option price itself is the same.The chosen time unit should make it necessary to adjust the volatility parameter only when there are some fundamental reasons for it and not due to wrong specifications of the model. This paper examined the effects of option pricing using different time hypotheses and empirically investigated which time frame the option markets in Germany employ over weekdays. The paper specifically tries to get a picture of how the market prices options. The results seem to verify that the German market behaves in a fashion that deviates from the most traditional time units in option pricing, calendar and trading days. The study also showed that the implied volatility of Thursdays was somewhat higher and thus differed from the pattern of other days of the week. Using a GARCH model to further investigate the effect showed that although a traditional tests, like the analysis of variance, indicated a negative return for Thursday during the same period as the implied volatilities used, this was not supported using a GARCH model.

Evaluating Option Pricing Models

This study evaluates three different time units in option pricing: trading time, calendar time and continuous time using discrete approximations (CTDA). The CTDA-time model partitions the trading day into 30-minute intervals, where each interval is given a weight corresponding to the historical volatility in the respective interval. Furthermore, the non-trading volatility, both overnight and weekend volatility, is included in the first interval of the trading day in the CTDA model. The three models are tested on market prices. The results indicate that the trading-time model gives the best fit to market prices in line with the results of previous studies, but contrary to expectations under non-arbitrage option pricing. Under non-arbitrage pricing, the option premium should reflect the cost of hedging the expected volatility during the option’s remaining life. The study concludes that the historical patterns in volatility are not fully accounted for by the market, rather the market prices options closer to trading time.

Short-Horizon Asymmetric Mean-Reversion and Overreactions: Evidence from the Nordic Stock Markets

This paper examines the asymmetric behavior of conditional mean and variance. Short-horizon mean-reversion behavior in mean is modeled with an asymmetric nonlinear autoregressive model, and the variance is modeled with an Exponential GARCH in Mean model. The results of the empirical investigation of the Nordic stock markets indicates that negative returns revert faster to positive returns when positive returns generally persist longer. Asymmetry in both mean and variance can be seen on all included markets and are fairly similar. Volatility rises following negative returns more than following positive returns which is an indication of overreactions. Negative returns lead to increased variance and positive returns leads even to decreased variance.

Intraday Seasonalities and Macroeconomic News Announcements

Using a data set consisting of three years of 5-minute intraday stock index returns for major European stock indices and U.S. macroeconomic surprises, the conditional mean and volatility behaviors in European market were investigated. The findings suggested that the opening of the U.S market significantly raised the level of volatility in Europe, and that all markets respond in an identical fashion. Furthermore, the U.S. macroeconomic surprises exerted an immediate and major impact on both European stock markets’ returns and volatilities. Thus, high frequency data appear to be critical for the identification of news that impacted the markets.

An Empirical Study of the Mixture of Time and Movements in Prices

This paper investigates the persistent pattern in the Helsinki Exchanges. The persistent pattern is analyzed using a time and a price approach. It is hypothesized that arrival times are related to movements in prices. Thus, the arrival times are defined as durations and formulated as an Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model as in Engle and Russell (1998). The prices are defined as price changes and formulated as a GARCH process including duration measures. The research question follows from market microstructure predictions about price intensities defined as time between price changes. The microstructure theory states that long transaction durations might be associated with both no news and bad news. Accordingly, short durations would be related to high volatility and long durations to low volatility. As a result, the spread will tend to be larger under intensive moments. The main findings of this study are 1) arrival times are positively autocorrelated and 2) long durations are associated with low volatility in the market.

Intraday Linkages across International Equity Markets

Utilizing concurrent 5-minute returns, the intraday dynamics and inter-market dependencies in international equity markets were investigated. A strong intraday cyclical autocorrelation structure in the volatility process was observed to be caused by the diurnal pattern. A major rise in contemporaneous cross correlation among European stock markets was also noticed to follow the opening of the New York Stock Exchange. Furthermore, the results indicated that the returns for UK and Germany responded to each other’s innovations, both in terms of the first and second moment dependencies. In contrast to earlier research, the US stock market did not cause significant volatility spillover to the European markets.

World parliament – fact or fiction? On the feasibility of world parliamentary models

Cosmopolitan ideals have been on the philosophical agenda for several millennia but the end of the Cold War started a new discussion on state sovereignty, global democracy, the role of international law and global institutions. The Westphalian state system in practice since the 17th century is transforming and the democracy deficit needs new solutions. An impetus has been the fact that in the present world, an international body representing global citizens does not exist. In this Master’s thesis, the possibility of establishing a world parliament is examined. In a case analysis, 17 models on world parliament from two journals, a volume of essays and two other publications are discussed. Based on general observations, the models are divided into four thematic groups. The models are analyzed with an emphasis on feasible and probable elements. Further, a new scenario with a time frame of thirty years is proposed based on the methodology of normative futures studies, taking special interest in causal relationships and actions leading to change. The scenario presents three gradual steps that each need to be realized before a sustainable world parliament is established. The theoretical framework is based on social constructivism, and changes in international and multi-level governance are examined with the concepts of globalization, democracy and sovereignty. A feasible, desirable and credible world parliament is constituted gradually by implying electoral, democratic and legal measures for members initially from exclusively democratic states, parliamentarians, non-governmental organizations and other groups. The parliament should be located outside the United Nations context, since a new body avoids the problem of inefficiency currently prevailing in the UN. The main objectives of the world parliament are to safeguard peace and international law and to offer legal advice in cases when international law has been violated. A feasible world parliament is advisory in the beginning but it is granted legislative powers in the future. The number of members in the world parliament could also be extended following the example of the EU enlargement process.

Jac. Ahrenberg ja historian perintö : Restaurointisuunnitelmat Viipurin ja Turun linnoihin 1800-luvun lopussa

Jac. Ahrenberg and Patrimony Restoration Plans for Viipuri and Turku Castles at the End of the 19th Century This dissertation examines the unrealized restoration plans for two castles in the Grand Duchy of Finland one located at Viipuri (Vyborg, nowadays in Russia), the other at Turku (in Swedish, Åbo) during the last decades of the 19th century. Both castles were used as prisons, barracks and warehouses. From the middle of the 19th century on, their restoration and transformation into museums and "national monuments" were demanded in the newspapers. The prison reform in the 1860s stimulated the documentation and debate concerning their future, but it was only at the beginning of the 1880s when their restoration became an official state-run project. The undertaking was carried out by Johan Jacob (Jac.) Ahrenberg (1847 1914), architect of the National Board of Public Buildings. By combining written sources with drawings and photographs, this dissertation examines the restoration projects, the two castles' significance and the ways in which they were investigated by scholars. The plans are analyzed in connection with restoration practices in France and Sweden and in the context of contemporary discussions concerning national art and patrimony. The thesis argues that these former castles of the Swedish crown were used to manifest the western roots of Finnish law and order, the lineage of power and the capacity of the nation to defend itself. However, because of their symbolism, their restoration became a politically delicate question concerning the role of the Swedish heritage in Finland's nation-building process. According to Jac. Ahrenberg's plans, the two castles were to be restored to their assumed appearance at the time of the Vasa dynasty. Consequently, the structures would have resembled castles in Sweden. It is suggested that one aim of the restoration plans was to transform the two buildings into monuments testifying to the common history of Sweden and Finland. They were meant to consolidate the Swedish basis of Finnish culture and autonomy and thus to secure them against the threatening implications of Russian imperialism. It seems that along with the changing ideals of architectural restoration and the need for an original Finnish architectural heritage, the political connotations associated with the castles were one reason why Jac. Ahrenberg's restoration plans were never realized.

Kohti määrittämätöntä : Maahanmuuttajien vertaisryhmiin osallistuneiden naisten toimijuus

In this research, I examine the agency of women who has taken part in peer groups for immigrants organized by Finnish refugee council. My thesis is connected with post-colonial feminist research where difference and power have been studied especially from the view of those inferior positions. Agency is the main tool that I use in this thesis. I examine how peer groups are significant in the speech of women and how women s agency shows in their lives. My goal was to examine how women build their lives in a new environment. I also want to show an alternative view in the discussion about integration by telling about the lives of the women. My data is from single and group interviews, from one peer group meeting that I observed and conversations with the peer mentors. Altogether I interviewed 29 women from the age of 18 to elderly people. Women had emigrated from eight different countries. I also used educational material made for peer group mentors as my data. According to my study, the peer groups were significant for women especially because of the social relations made in the groups and the knowledge achieved about Finnish society. Also the language skills achieved in the peer groups were important. In the peer groups women realized to fill the competences acquired to make their space of agency wider. Women s agency was sometimes quiet and it aimed to maintain. This kind of agency made the foundation to everyday life in Finland. It was also used to create relation to the country of emigration. Agency occurred also as toleration. Especially when confronting racism or when women had to give up customs that were important to them. The sense of agency grew in peer groups. This and through perceiving their competences women pondered the paths in their future. Women spoke of themselves as foreigners and made distinction with the majority of population. In the educational material and in the speech of the mentors, the image of Finnishness was unlimited. Women did not find space for them in the concept of Finnish. The intercommunication between women and the majority of population was narrow and those were formed mainly in context of the work of the majority of population. In my research, I noticed that women have enough knowledge, skills and competences for agency, only the space for it is narrow. When speaking about integration, immigrants are seen as objects to be activated. I suggest that from this way of speaking focus should be changed from activation to deconstruction of the positions shown to women.

REHTORIT PORTINVARTIJOINA : sekä miten rehtoreiden kertomuksista muodostuu pääkaupunkiseudun Tehostetun ja erityisen tuen kehittämisverkoston tarina

Research objectives. The Special Education Strategy, the legislative change based on it, and the change in the Finnish National Core Curriculum for Pre-primary and Basic Education build the background for this study. An improvement initiative called KELPO was founded in 2008 to implement a new three-level support system in municipalities. To support this initiative, the Network of Intensified and Special Support in the Metropolitan Area was founded in 2010. The Network consists of 22 pilot schools from four metropolitan municipalities and the Centre for Educational Assessment at the University of Helsinki that carries out the developmental assessment of the initiative. The objective of my study was to form an overall view of the functioning of the Network. The data included interviews of 20 principals of the schools belonging to the Network. The interviews were conducted by the Centre for Educational Assessment in the autumn of 2010. The research question is: What do principals speak about the networking done inside and between the municipalities? Methods. I received the data as already transcribed for my use. I researched it using a narrative research approach. As a method I used both thematic reading and classifying narratives by the holistic-content. These methods belong under the analyze of narratives. I collected the narratives from the principals under themes that arose from the data delimited by my research question. The narrative analysis materialized by writing the research story, as a new story was built by the principals stories theme by theme. The classification of the narratives by the holistic-content method was realized according to what kind of a gatekeeper s role each principal had. With a gatekeeper I here mean the intermediary role of a principal between the school and outside world. In addition, I used the analysis of interactive production of the narrative when applicable. Results and conclusions. Explicit features in the story of the Network were the principals at least partial uncertainty of the purpose of the networking, lack of time and resources, changing of initiatives, and lack of continuity. Positive narratives about ownership and empowerment could also be found. Nonetheless, many of the preconditions for success described by the school reform and school networking theories were not fulfilled. According to the collective story, there was no shared goal or purpose, and nor were the needs of autonomy, competence, and relatedness fulfilled. Three different kinds of gatekeepers were found in the data: The Exemplary ones, The Survivors and The Losers. The distinguishing factor turned out to be sharing of information at school. Based on the narratives, the schools with principals taking care of sharing information were the most active in partaking in networking.

Numeroiden harhaa vai toteutuksen työkaluja? -indikaattorien käyttö maatalouden ympäristöpoliittisessa suunnittelussa

This research focused on indicators with the aim of recognizing the main characters of this particular tool. The planning and use of Finnish sustainability indicators for natural resource management was examined as well as the experiences about the international sets of agri-environmental indicators were described. In both cases, the actual utilization of information was found to be quite minimal. Indicators have succeeded in bringing more of environmental information into the processes of decision making, but information has not been directly shifted into the actions of natural resource management. The concept of technical use of indicators was presented and considered as a possible explanation for the failures of information transfer and communication. Traditionally indicators have been used in order to recognize and describe the performance of certain system; to provide clear operative message for the actors. In policy planning, the situation is essentially different. We may lack both the jointly shared and accepted objectives of development as well the reliable and representative methods for measuring the issue under attention. Therefore, the technical orientation of using indicators may cause several problems at the policy forum. The study identified the risks of 1) reduced informative basis of decision-making, 2) narrowed approach of interpreting the data, 3) the focus on the issues that already are best documented and provides the most representative data series, and 4) the risks of losing the systemic viewpoints while focusing on measurable details of the system. Technical use of indicators may also result the excessive focus on information while being detached from the actions. With sustainability indicators, the major emphasis was indeed paid with producing information while the reality of agricultural practices was left mostly unaffected. Therefore, the essential process of social learning, where actions and producing of relevant information are alternating was neither realized. This study underlines the complexity of information transfer, mutual communication and the learning of new practices. Besides the information and measurable number people also need personal experiences and interesting stories, which make them to understand the meaning of information in their own lives. Particularly important this is for thechildren, who are studying for to be the future decision-makers of food system; in production as well as the in consumption of food. Numbers will be useful tools of management as soon there exists the awareness of the direction, where to strive for.

Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choices of timber management strategies and potential allowable cut.

In the study, the potential allowable cut in the district of Pohjois-Savo - based on the non-industrial private forest landowners' (NIPF) choices of timber management strategies - was clarified. Alternative timber management strategies were generated, and the choices and factors affecting the choices of timber management strategies by NIPF landowners were studied. The choices of timber management strategies were solved by maximizing the utility functions of the NIPF landowners. The parameters of the utility functions were estimated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The level of the potential allowable cut was compared to the cutting budgets based on the 7th and 8th National Forest Inventories (NFI7 and NFI8), to the combining of private forestry plans, and to the realized drain from non-industrial private forests. The potential allowable cut was calculated using the same MELA system as has been used in the calculation of the national cutting budget. The data consisted of the NIPF holdings (from the TASO planning system) that had been inventoried compartmentwise and had forestry plans made during the years 1984-1992. The NIPF landowners' choices of timber management strategies were clarified by a two-phase mail inquiry. The most preferred strategy obtained was "sustainability" (chosen by 62 % of landowners). The second in order of preference was "finance" (17 %) and the third was "saving" (11 %). "No cuttings", and "maximum cuttings" were the least preferred (9 % and 1 %, resp.). The factors promoting the choices of strategies with intensive cuttings were a) "farmer as forest owner" and "owning fields", b) "increase in the size of the forest holding", c) agriculture and forestry orientation in production, d) "decreasing short term stumpage earning expectations", e) "increasing intensity of future cuttings", and f) "choice of forest taxation system based on site productivity". The potential allowable cut defined in the study was 20 % higher than the average of the realized drain during the years 1988-1993, which in turn, was at the same level as the cutting budget based on the combining of forestry plans in eastern Finland. Respectively, the potential allowable cut defined in the study was 12 % lower than the NFI8-based greatest sustained allowable cut for the 1990s. Using the method presented in this study, timber management strategies can be clarified for non-industrial private forest landowners in different parts of Finland. Based on the choices of timber managemet strategies, regular cutting budgets can be calculated more realistically than before.

Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

Cohésion modale et subordination : Le conditionnel et le jussif finnois au miroir de la valeur sémantique et discursive du subjonctif français

Modal cohesion and subordination. The Finnish conditional and jussive moods in comparison to the French subjunctive This study examines verb moods in subordinate clauses in French and Finnish. The first part of the analysis deals with the syntax and semantics of the French subjunctive, mood occurring mostly in subordinate positions. The second part investigates Finnish verb moods. Although subordinate positions in Finnish grammar have no special finite verb form, certain uses of Finnish verb moods have been compared to those of subjunctives and conjunctives in other languages. The present study focuses on the subordinate uses of the Finnish conditional and jussive (i.e. the third person singular and plural of the imperative mood). The third part of the analysis discusses the functions of subordinate moods in contexts beyond complex sentences. The data used for the analysis include 1834 complex sentences gathered from newspapers, online discussion groups and blog texts, as well as audio-recorded interviews and conversations. The data thus consist of both written and oral texts as well as standard and non-standard variants. The analysis shows that the French subjunctive codes theoretical modality. The subjunctive does not determine the temporal and modal meaning of the event, but displays the event as virtual. In a complex sentence, the main clause determines the temporal and modal space within which the event coded by the subjunctive clause is interpreted. The subjunctive explicitly indicates that the space constructed in the main clause extends its scope over the subordinate clause. The subjunctive can therefore serve as a means for creating modal cohesion in the discourse. The Finnish conditional shares the function of making explicit the modal link between the components of a complex construction with the French subjunctive, but the two moods differ in their semantics. The conditional codes future time and can therefore occur only in non-factual or counterfactual contexts, whereas the event expressed by French subjunctive clauses can also be interpreted as realized. Such is the case when, for instance, generic and habitual meaning is involved. The Finnish jussive mood is used in a relatively limited number of subordinate clause types, but in these contexts its modal meaning is strikingly close to that of the French subjunctive. The permissive meaning, typical of the jussive in main clause positions, is modified in complex sentences so that it entails inter-clausal relation, namely concession. Like the French subjunctive, the jussive codes theoretical modal meaning with no implication of the truth value of the proposition. Finally, the analysis shows that verb moods mark modal cohesion, not only on the syntagmatic level (namely in complexe sentences), but also on the paradigmatic axis of discourse in order to create semantic links over entire segments of talk. In this study, the subjunctive thus appears, not as an empty category without function, as it is sometimes described, but as an open form that conveys the temporal and modal meanings emerging from the context.

Trafficking in human beings and Foucauldian biopower : A case study in the expansion of the human rights phenomenon

Trafficking in human beings has become one of the most talked about criminal concerns of the 21st century. But this is not all that it has become. Trafficking has also been declared as one of the most pressing human rights issues of our time. In this sense, it has become a part of the expansion of the human rights phenomenon. Although it is easy to see that the crime of trafficking violates several of the human rights of its victims, it is still, in its essence, a fairly conventional although particularly heinous and often transnational crime, consisting of acts between private actors, and lacking, therefore, the vertical effect associated traditionally with human rights violations. This thesis asks, then, why, and how, has the anti-trafficking campaign been translated in human rights language. And even more fundamentally: in light of the critical, theoretical studies surrounding the expansion of the human rights phenomenon, especially that of Costas Douzinas, who has declared that we have come to the end of human rights as a consequence of the expansion and bureaucratization of the phenomenon, can human rights actually bring salvation to the victims of trafficking? The thesis demonstrates that the translation process of the anti-trafficking campaign into human rights language has been a complicated process involving various actors, including scholars, feminist NGOs, local activists and global human rights NGOs. It has also been driven by a complicated web of interests, the most prevalent one the sincere will to help the victims having become entangled with other aims, such as political, economical, and structural goals. As a consequence of its fragmented background, the human rights approach to trafficking seeks still its final form, consisting of several different claims. After an assessment of these claims from a legal perspective, this thesis concludes that the approach is most relevant regarding the mistreatment of victims of trafficking in the hands of state authorities. It seems to be quite common that authorities have trouble identifying the victims of trafficking, which means that the rights granted to themin international and national documents are not realized in practice, but victims of trafficking are systematically deported as illegal immigrants. It is argued that in order to understand the measures of the authorities, and to assess the usefulness of human rights, it is necessary to adopt a Foucauldian perspective and to observe the measures as biopolitical defence mechanisms. From a biopolitical perspective, the victims of trafficking can be seen as a threat to the population a threat that must be eliminated either by assimilating them to the main population with the help of disciplinary techniques, or by excluding them completely from the society. This biopolitical aim is accomplished through an impenetrable net of seemingly insignificant practices and discourses that not even the participants are aware of. As a result of these practices and discourses, trafficking victims only very few of fit the myth of the perfect victim, produced by biopolitical discourses become invisible and therefore subject to deportation as (risky) illegal immigrants, turning them into bare life in the Agambenian sense, represented by the homo sacer, who cannot be sacrificed, yet does not enjoy the protection of the society and its laws. It is argued, following Jacques Rancière and Slavoj i ek, that human rights can, through their universality and formal equality, provide bare life the tools to formulate political claims and therefore utilize their politicization through their exclusion to return to the sphere of power and politics. Even though human rights have inevitably become entangled with biopolitical practices, they are still perhaps the most efficient way to challenge biopower. Human rights have not, therefore, become useless for the victims of trafficking, but they must be conceived as a universal tool to formulate political claims and challenge power .In the case of trafficking this means that human rights must be utilized to constantly renegotiate the borders of the problematic concept of victim of trafficking created by international instruments, policies and discourses, including those that are sincerely aimed to provide help for the victims.