Analysts' Accuracy of Estimation and the Relative Trading Volume

This study contributes to the neglect effect literature by looking at the relative trading volume in terms of value. The results for the Swedish market show a significant positive relationship between the accuracy of estimation and the relative trading volume. Market capitalisation and analyst coverage have in prior studies been used as proxies for neglect. These measures however, do not take into account the effort analysts put in when estimating corporate pre-tax profits. I also find evidence that the industry of the firm influence the accuracy of estimation. In addition, supporting earlier findings, loss making firms are associated with larger forecasting errors. Further, I find that the average forecast error increased in the year 2000 – in Sweden.

Svekofennialaisen orogenian ylityönnön terminen mallinnus Itä-Suomen arkeeisella kratonilla

This study reviews the thermophysical properties of rocks and the lithosphere and describes a one dimensional thermal numeric model of hypothetical 20 km thick overthrust plate obtruded on to the Archeaen craton in the Svecofennian orogeny (1.92-1.77 Ga). The objective is to find out if the overthrust plate and its radiogenic heat sources were able to produce the thermal effects observed on the current erosion level of the Archaean craton. Heat transfer in lithosphere is assumed conductive, and advective heat transfer due to melting and melt transfer is supposed negligible. The study area is located in the Eastern Finland, approximately current Kainuu and Northern Karelia regions, east from the most active orogenic belt (Raahe-Ladoga zone), so that orogenic magmatism can be neglected. Physical parameters and boundary conditions for the model are from different earlier published sources: deep seismic profiles (rock variation in depth), laboratory measurements (heat production and conductivity of rocks), field measurements (heat flow densities), and pT(t) estimations from the Finnish precambrian to estimate the size and thickness of the sheet. Comparison of the modelling results to previous K-Ar datings and other pTt estimations show, that the effect of the overthrust sheet has been adequate (max. T 450°C at 4 kbar) to produce the K-Ar resetting ages measured from the Archaean bedrock at current erosion level. No other kind of thermal activation in lithosphere is required. Results show possibly very minor partial melting in upper middle crust underneath the overthrust sheet.

Dynamic Factor Models and Forecasting Finnish Macroeconomic Variables

In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

Do Households Have Rational Expectations on Future Consumption? Evidence from the Finnish Consumer Survey

Ever since its initial introduction some fifty years ago, the rational expectations paradigm has dominated the way economic theory handles uncertainty. The main assertion made by John F. Muth (1961), seen by many as the father of the paradigm, is that expectations of rational economic agents should essentially be equal to the predictions of relevant economic theory, since rational agents should use information available to them in an optimal way. This assumption often has important consequences on the results and interpretations of the models where it is applied. Although the rational expectations assumption can be applied to virtually any economic theory, the focus in this thesis is on macroeconomic theories of consumption, especially the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis proposed by Robert E. Hall in 1978. The much-debated theory suggests that, assuming that agents have rational expectations on their future income, consumption decisions should follow a random walk, and the best forecast of future consumption level is the current consumption level. Then, changes in consumption are unforecastable. This thesis constructs an empirical test for the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis using Finnish Consumer Survey data as well as various Finnish macroeconomic data. The data sample covers the years 1995–2010. Consumer survey data may be interpreted to directly represent household expectations, which makes it an interesting tool for this particular test. The variable to be predicted is the growth of total household consumption expenditure. The main empirical result is that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a balance figure computed from the most important consumer survey responses, does have statistically significant predictive power over the change in total consumption expenditure. The history of consumption expenditure growth itself, however, fails to predict its own future values. This indicates that the CCI contains some information that the history of consumption decisions does not, and that the consumption decisions are not optimal in the theoretical context. However, when conditioned on various macroeconomic variables, the CCI loses its predictive ability. This finding suggests that the index is merely a (partial) summary of macroeconomic information, and does not contain any significant private information on consumption intentions of households not directly deductible from the objective economic variables. In conclusion, the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis is strongly rejected by the empirical results in this thesis. This result is in accordance with most earlier studies conducted on the topic.

Stand growth and management scenarios for Paraserianthes falcataria smallholder plantations in Indonesia

Paraserianthes falcataria is a very fast growing, light wood tree species, that has recently gained wide interest in Indonesia for industrial wood processing. At the moment the P. falcataria plantations managed by smallholders are lacking predefined management programmes for commercial wood production. The general objective of this study was to model the growth and yield of Paraserianthes falcataria stands managed by smallholders in Ciamis, West Java, Indonesia and to develop management scenarios for different production objectives. In total 106 circular sample plots with over 2300 P. falcataria trees were assessed on smallholder plantation inventory. In addition, information on market prices of P. falcataria wood was collected through rapid appraisals among industries. A tree growth model based on Chapman-Richards function was developed on three different site qualities and the stand management scenarios were developed under three management objectives: (1) low initial stand density with low intensity stand management, (2) high initial stand density with medium intensity of intervention, (3) high initial stand density and strong intensity of silvicultural interventions, repeated more than once. In general, the 9 recommended scenarios have rotation ages varying from 4 to 12 years, planting densities from 4x4 meters (625 trees ha-1) to 3x2 meters (1666 trees ha-1) and thinnings at intensities of removing 30 to 60 % of the standing trees. The highest annual income would be generated on high-quality with a scenario with initial planting density 3x2 m (1666 trees ha-1) one thinning at intensity of removing 55 % of the standing trees at the age of 2 years and clear cut at the age of 4 years.

Climatic adaptation of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karsten) in Finland based on male flowering phenology.

Anthesis was studied at the canopy level in 10 Norway spruce stands from 9 localities in Finland from 1963 to 1974. Distributions of pollen catches were compared to the normal Gaussian distribution. The basis for the timing studies was the 50 per cent point of the anthesis-fitted normal distribution. Development up to this point was given in calendar days, in degree days (>5 °C) and in period units. The count of each parameter began on March 19 (included). Male flowering in Norway spruce stands was found to have more annual variation in quantity than in Scots pine stands studied earlier. Anthesis in spruce in northern Finland occurred at a later date than in the south. The heat sums needed for anthesis varied latitudinally less in spruce than in pine. The variation of pollen catches in spruce increased towards north-west as in the case of Scots pine. In the unprocessed data, calendar days were found to be the most accurate forecast of anthesis in Norway spruce both for a single year and for the majority of cases of stand averages over several years. Locally, the period unit could be a more accurate parameter for the stand average. However, on a calendar day basis, when annual deviations between expected and measured heat sums were converted to days, period units were narrowly superior to days. The geographical correlations respect to timing of flowering, calculated against distances measured along simulated post-glacial migration routes, were stronger than purely latitudinal correlations. Effects of the reinvasion of Norway spruce into Finland are thus still visible in spruce populations just as they were in Scots pine populations. The proportion of the average annual heat sum needed for spruce anthesis grew rapidly north of a latitude of ca. 63° and the heat sum needed for anthesis decreased only slighty towards the timberline. In light of flowering phenology, it seems probable that the northwesterly third of Finnish Norway spruce populations are incompletely adapted to the prevailing cold climate. A moderate warming of the climate would therefore be beneficial for Norway spruce. This accords roughly with the adaptive situation in Scots pine.

Differences in the climatic adaptation of silver birch (Betula pendula) and downy birch (B. pubescens) in Finland based on male flowering phenology.

Male flowering was studied at the canopy level in 10 silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) stands from 8 localities and in 14 downy birch (B. pubescens Ehrh.) stands from 10 localities in Finland from 1963 to 1973. Distributions of cumulative pollen catches were compared to the normal Gaussian distribution. The basis for the timing of flowering was the 50 per cent point of the anthesis-fitted normal distribution. To eliminate effects of background pollen, only the central, normally distributed part of the cumulative distribution was used. Development up to the median point of the distribution was measured and tested in calendar days, in degree days (> 5 °C) and in period units. The count of each parameter began on and included March 19. Male flowering in silver birch occurred from late April to late June depending on latitude, and flowering in downy birch took place from early May to early July. The heat sums needed for male flowering varied in downy birch stands latitudinally but there was practically no latitudinal variation in heat sums needed for silver birch flowering. The amount of male flowering in stands of both birch species were found to have a large annual variation but without any clear periodicity. The between years pollen catch variation in stands of either birch species did not show any significant latitudinal correlation in contrast to Norway spruce stands. The period unit heat sum gave the most accurate forecast of the timing of flowering for 60 per cent of the silver birch stands and for 78.6 per cent of the for downy birch stands. Calendar days, however, gave the best forecast for silver birch in 25 per cent of the cases, while degree days gave the best forecast for downy birch in 21.4 per cent of the cases. Silver birch seems to have a local inclination for a more fixed flowering date compared to downy birch, which could mean a considerable photoperiodic influence on flowering time of silver birch. Silver birch and downy birch had different geographical correlations. Frequent hybridization of birch species occurs more often in northern Finland in than in more southern latitudes. The different timing in flowering caused increasing scatter in flowering times in the north, especially in the case of downy birch. The chance of simultaneous flowering of silver birch and downy birch so increased northwards due to a more variable climate and also higher altitudinal variations. Compared with conifers, the reproduction cycles of both birch species were found to be well protected from damage by frost.

Methods and applications for improving parameter prediction models for stand structures in Finland

This thesis report attempts to improve the models for predicting forest stand structure for practical use, e.g. forest management planning (FMP) purposes in Finland. Comparisons were made between Weibull and Johnson s SB distribution and alternative regression estimation methods. Data used for preliminary studies was local but the final models were based on representative data. Models were validated mainly in terms of bias and RMSE in the main stand characteristics (e.g. volume) using independent data. The bivariate SBB distribution model was used to mimic realistic variations in tree dimensions by including within-diameter-class height variation. Using the traditional method, diameter distribution with the expected height resulted in reduced height variation, whereas the alternative bivariate method utilized the error-term of the height model. The lack of models for FMP was covered to some extent by the models for peatland and juvenile stands. The validation of these models showed that the more sophisticated regression estimation methods provided slightly improved accuracy. A flexible prediction and application for stand structure consisted of seemingly unrelated regression models for eight stand characteristics, the parameters of three optional distributions and Näslund s height curve. The cross-model covariance structure was used for linear prediction application, in which the expected values of the models were calibrated with the known stand characteristics. This provided a framework to validate the optional distributions and the optional set of stand characteristics. Height distribution is recommended for the earliest state of stands because of its continuous feature. From the mean height of about 4 m, Weibull dbh-frequency distribution is recommended in young stands if the input variables consist of arithmetic stand characteristics. In advanced stands, basal area-dbh distribution models are recommended. Näslund s height curve proved useful. Some efficient transformations of stand characteristics are introduced, e.g. the shape index, which combined the basal area, the stem number and the median diameter. Shape index enabled SB model for peatland stands to detect large variation in stand densities. This model also demonstrated reasonable behaviour for stands in mineral soils.

Towards Understanding Powder Behavior Via Simulation

The aim of this study was to investigate powder and tablet behavior at the level of mechanical interactions between single particles. Various aspects of powder packing, mixing, compression, and bond formation were examined with the aid of computer simulations. The packing and mixing simulations were based on spring forces interacting between particles. Packing and breakage simulations included systems in which permanent bonds were formed and broken between particles, based on their interaction strengths. During the process, a new simulation environment based on Newtonian mechanics and elementary interactions between the particles was created, and a new method for evaluating mixing was developed. Powder behavior is a complicated process, and many of its aspects are still unclear. Powders as a whole exhibit some aspects of solids and others of liquids. Therefore, their physics is far from clear. However, using relatively simple models based on particle-particle interaction, many powder properties could be replicated during this work. Simulated packing densities were similar to values reported in the literature. The method developed for describing powder mixing correlated well with previous methods. The new method can be applied to determine mixing in completely homogeneous materials, without dividing them into different components. As such, it can describe the efficiency of the mixing method, regardless of the powder's initial setup. The mixing efficiency at different vibrations was examined, and we found that certain combinations of amplitude, direction, and frequencies resulted in better mixing while using less energy. Simulations using exponential force potentials between particles were able to explain the elementary compression behavior of tablets, and create force distributions that were similar to the pressure distributions reported in the literature. Tablet-breaking simulations resulted in breaking strengths that were similar to measured tablet breaking strengths. In general, many aspects of powder behavior can be explained with mechanical interactions at the particle level, and single particle properties can be reliably linked to powder behavior with accurate simulations.

Structure of Relativistic States

QCD factorization in the Bjorken limit allows to separate the long-distance physics from the hard subprocess. At leading twist, only one parton in each hadron is coherent with the hard subprocess. Higher twist effects increase as one of the active partons carries most of the longitudinal momentum of the hadron, x -> 1. In the Drell-Yan process \pi N -> \mu^- mu^+ + X, the polarization of the virtual photon is observed to change to longitudinal when the photon carries x_F > 0.6 of the pion. I define and study the Berger-Brodsky limit of Q^2 -> \infty with Q^2(1-x) fixed. A new kind of factorization holds in the Drell-Yan process in this limit, in which both pion valence quarks are coherent with the hard subprocess, the virtual photon is longitudinal rather than transverse, and the cross section is proportional to a multiparton distribution. Generalized parton distributions contain information on the longitudinal momentum and transverse position densities of partons in a hadron. Transverse charge densities are Fourier transforms of the electromagnetic form factors. I discuss the application of these methods to the QED electron, studying the form factors, charge densities and spin distributions of the leading order |e\gamma> Fock state in impact parameter and longitudinal momentum space. I show how the transverse shape of any virtual photon induced process, \gamma^*(q)+i -> f, may be measured. Qualitative arguments concerning the size of such transitions have been previously made in the literature, but without a precise analysis. Properly defined, the amplitudes and the cross section in impact parameter space provide information on the transverse shape of the transition process.

Monetary policy rules and estimated reaction functions for the European Central Bank

This thesis studies the interest-rate policy of the ECB by estimating monetary policy rules using real-time data and central bank forecasts. The aim of the estimations is to try to characterize a decade of common monetary policy and to look at how different models perform at this task.The estimated rules include: contemporary Taylor rules, forward-looking Taylor rules, nonlinearrules and forecast-based rules. The nonlinear models allow for the possibility of zone-like preferences and an asymmetric response to key variables. The models therefore encompass the most popular sub-group of simple models used for policy analysis as well as the more unusual non-linear approach. In addition to the empirical work, this thesis also contains a more general discussion of monetary policy rules mostly from a New Keynesian perspective. This discussion includes an overview of some notable related studies, optimal policy, policy gradualism and several other related subjects. The regression estimations are performed with either least squares or the generalized method of moments depending on the requirements of the estimations. The estimations use data from both the Euro Area Real-Time Database and the central bank forecasts published in ECB Monthly Bulletins. These data sources represent some of the best data that is available for this kind of analysis. The main results of this thesis are that forward-looking behavior appears highly prevalent, but that standard forward-looking Taylor rules offer only ambivalent results with regard to inflation. Nonlinear models are shown to work, but on the other hand do not have a strong rationale over a simpler linear formulation. However, the forecasts appear to be highly useful in characterizing policy and may offer the most accurate depiction of a predominantly forward-looking central bank. In particular the inflation response appears much stronger while the output response becomes highly forward-looking as well.

Lumettoman maan routaolojen mallintaminen ja ennustettavuus muuttuvassa ilmastossa

Raportissa on arvioitu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta Suomen maaperän talviaikaiseen jäätymiseen lämpösummien perusteella. Laskelmat kuvaavat roudan paksuutta nimenomaisesti lumettomilla alueilla, esimerkiksi teillä, joilta satanut lumi aurataan pois. Luonnossa lämpöä eristävän lumipeitteen alla routaa on ohuemmin kuin tällaisilla lumettomilla alueilla. Toisaalta luonnollisessa ympäristössä paikalliset erot korostuvat johtuen mm. maalajeista ja kasvillisuudesta. Roudan paksuudet laskettiin ensin perusjakson 1971–2000 ilmasto-oloissa talviaikaisten säähavaintotietoihin pohjautuvien lämpötilojen perusteella. Sen jälkeen laskelmat toistettiin kolmelle tulevalle ajanjaksolle (2010–2039, 2040–2069 ja 2070–2099) kohottamalla lämpötiloja ilmastonmuutosmallien ennustamalla tavalla. Laskelman pohjana käytettiin 19 ilmastomallin A1B-skenaarioajojen keskimäärin simuloimaa lämpötilan muutosta. Tulosten herkkyyden arvioimiseksi joitakin laskelmia tehtiin myös tätä selvästi heikompaa ja voimakkaampaa lämpenemisarviota käyttäen. A1B-skenaarion mukaisen lämpötilan nousun toteutuessa nykyisiä mallituloksia vastaavasti routakerros ohenee sadan vuoden aikana Pohjois-Suomessa 30–40 %, suuressa osassa maan keski- ja eteläosissa 50–70 %. Jo lähivuosikymmeninä roudan ennustetaan ohentuvan 10–30 %, saaristossa enemmän. Mikäli lämpeneminen toteutuisi voimakkaimman tarkastellun vaihtoehdon mukaisesti, roudan syvyys pienenisi tätäkin enemmän. Roudan paksuuden vuosienvälistä vaihtelua ja sen muuttumista tulevaisuudessa pyrittiin myös arvioimaan. Leutoina talvina routa ohenee enemmän kuin normaaleina tai ankarina pakkastalvina. Päivittäistä sään vaihtelua simuloineen säägeneraattorin tuottamassa aineistoissa esiintyi kuitenkin liian vähän hyvin alhaisia ja hyvin korkeita lämpötiloja. Siksi näitten lämpötilatietojen pohjalta laskettu roudan paksuuskin ilmeisesti vaihtelee liian vähän vuodesta toiseen. Kelirikkotilanteita voi esiintyä myös kesken routakauden, jos useamman päivän suojasää ja samanaikainen runsas vesisade pääsevät sulattamaan maata. Tällaiset routakauden aikana sattuvat säätilat näyttävätkin yleistyvän lähivuosikymmeninä. Vuosisadan loppua kohti ne sen sijaan maan eteläosissa jälleen vähenevät, koska routakausi lyhenee oleellisesti. Tulevia vuosikymmeniä koskevien ilmastonmuutosennusteiden ohella routaa ja kelirikon esiintymistä on periaatteessa mahdollista ennustaa myös lähiaikojen sääennusteita hyödyntäen. Pitkät, viikkojen tai kuukausien mittaiset sääennusteet eivät tosin ole ainakaan vielä erityisen luotettavia, mutta myös lyhyemmistä ennusteista voisi olla hyötyä mm. tienpitoa suunniteltaessa.

Producing interactivity : Does media convergence promote interactivity and audience participation?

This study investigates the process of producing interactivity in a converged media environment. The study asks whether more media convergence equals more interactivity. The research object is approached through semi-structured interviews of prominent decision makers within the Finnish media. The main focus of the study are the three big ones of the traditional media, radio, television and the printing press, and their ability to adapt to the changing environment. The study develops theoretical models for the analysis of interactive features and convergence. Case-studies are formed from the interview data and they are evaluated against the models. As a result the cases arc plotted and compared on a four-fold table. The cases are Radio Rock, NRJ, Biu Brother, Television Chat, Olivia and Sanoma News. It is found out that the theoretical models can accurately forecast the results of the case studies. The models are also able to distinguish different aspects of both interactivity and convergence so that a case, which at a first glance seems not to be very interactive is in the end found out to receive second highest scores on the analysis. The highest scores are received by Big Brother and Sanoma News. Through the theory and the analysis of the research data it is found out that the concepts of interactivity and convergence arc intimately intertwined and very hard in many cases to separate from each other. Hence the answer to the main question of this study is yes, convergence does promote interactivity and audience participation. The main theoretical background for the analysis of interactivity follows the work of Came Fleeter, Spiro Kiousis and Sally McMillan. Heeler's six-dimensional definition of interactivity is used as the basis for operationalizing interactivity. The actor-network theory is used as the main theoretical framework to analyze convergence. The definition and operationalization of the actor-network theory into a model of convergence follows the work of Michel Callon. Bruno Latour and especially John Law and Felix Stalder.

Characterization and evaluation of melibiose as novel excipient in tablet compaction

Lactose is probably the most used tablet excipient in the field of pharmacy. Although lactose is thoroughly characterized and available in many different forms there is a need to find a replacer for lactose as a filler/binder in tablet formulations because it has some downsides. Melibiose is a relatively unknown disaccharide that has not been thoroughly characterized and not previously used as an excipient in tablets. Structurally melibiose is close to lactose as it is also formed from the same two monosaccharides, glucose and galactose. Aim of this research is to characterize and to study physicochemical properties of melibiose. Also the potential of melibiose to be used as pharmaceutical tablet excipient, even as a substitute for lactose is evaluated. Current knowledge about fundamentals of tableting and methods for determinating of deformation behavior and tabletability are reviewed. In this research Raman spectroscopy, X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD), near-infrared spectroscopy (NIR) and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) were used to study differences between two melibiose batches purchased from two suppliers. In NIR and FT-IR measurements no difference between materials could be observed. XPRD and Raman however found differences between the two melibiose batches. Also the effects of moisture content and heating to material properties were studied and moisture content of materials seems to cause some differences. Thermal analytical methods, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetry (TG) were used to study thermal behaviour of melibiose and difference between materials was found. Other melibiose batch contains residual water which evaporates at higher temperatures causing the differences in thermal behaviour. Scanning electron microscopy images were used to evaluate particle size, particle shape and morphology. Bulk, tapped and true densities and flow properties of melibiose was measured. Particle size of the melibiose batches are quite different resulting causing differences in the flowability. Instrumented tableting machine and compression simulator were used to evaluate tableting properties of melbiose compared to α-lactose monohydrate. Heckel analysis and strain-rate sensitivity index were used to determine deformation mechanism of melibiose monohydrate in relation to α–lactose monohydrate during compaction. Melibiose seems to have similar deformation behaviour than α-lactose monohydrate. Melibiose is most likely fragmenting material. Melibiose has better compactibility than α – lactose monohydrate as it produces tablets with higher tensile strength with similar compression pressures. More compression studies are however needed to confirm these results because limitations of this study.