Somali State Failure: Players, Incentives and Institutions

In Somalia the central government collapsed in 1991 and since then state failure became a widespread phenomenon and one of the greatest political and humanitarian problems facing the world in this century. Thus, the main objective of this research is to answer the following question: What went wrong? Most of the existing literature on the political economy of conflict starts from the assumption that state in Africa is predatory by nature. Unlike these studies, the present research, although it uses predation theory, starts from the social contract approach of state definition. Therefore, rather than contemplating actions and policies of the rulers alone, this approach allows us to deliberately bring the role of the society – as citizens – and other players into the analyses. In Chapter 1, after introducing the study, a simple principal-agent model will be developed to check the logical consistence of the argument and to make the identification of causal mechanism easier. I also identify three main actors in the process of state failure in Somalia: the Somali state, Somali society and the superpowers. In Chapter 2, so as to understand the incentives, preferences and constraints of each player in the state failure game, I in some depth analyse the evolution and structure of three central informal institutions: identity based patronage system of leadership, political tribalism, and the Cold War. These three institutions are considered as the rules of the game in the Somali state failure. Chapter 3 summarises the successive civilian governments’ achievements and failures (1960-69) concerning the main national goals, national unification and socio-economic development. Chapter 4 shows that the military regime, although it assumed power through extralegal means, served to some extent the developmental interest of the citizens in the first five years of its rule. Chapter 5 shows the process, and the factors involved, of the military regime’s self-transformation from being an agent for the developmental interests of the society to a predatory state that not only undermines the interests of the society but that also destroys the state itself. Chapter 6 addresses the process of disintegration of the post-colonial state of Somalia. The chapter shows how the regime’s merciless reactions to political ventures by power-seeking opposition leaders shattered the entire country and wrecked the state institutions. Chapter 7 concludes the study by summarising the main findings: due to the incentive structures generated by the informal institutions, the formal state institutions fell apart.

Diabetic cardiomyopathy and post-infarct ventricular remodelling : Effects of levosimendan in a rodent model of type II diabetes

Type 2 diabetes is a risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease. Recently, the term diabetic cardiomyopathy has been proposed to describe the changes in the heart that occur in response to chronic hyperglycemia and insulin resistance. Ventricular remodelling in diabetic cardiomyopathy includes left ventricular hypertrophy, increased interstitial fibrosis, apoptosis and diastolic dysfunction. Mechanisms behind these changes are increased oxidative stress and renin-angiotensin system activation. The diabetic Goto-Kakizaki rat is a non-obese model of type 2 diabetes that exhibits defective insulin signalling. Recently two interconnected stress response pathways have been discovered that link insulin signalling, longevity, apoptosis and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy. The insulin-receptor PI3K/Ak pathway inhibits proapoptotic FOXO3a in response to insulin signalling and the nuclear Sirt1 deacetylase inhibits proapoptotic p53 and modulates FOXO3a in favour of survival and growth. --- Levosimendan is a calcium sensitizing agent used for the management of acute decompensated heart failure. Levosimendan acts as a positive inotrope by sensitizing cardiac troponin C to calcium and exerts vasodilation by opening mitochondrial and sarcolemmal ATP-sensitive potassium channels. Levosimendan has been described to have beneficial effects in ventricular remodelling after myocardial infarction. The aims of the study were to characterize whether diabetic cardiomyopathy associates with cardiac dysfunction, cardiomyocyte apoptosis, hypertrophy and fibrosis in spontaneously diabetic Goto-Kakizaki (GK) rats, which were used to model type 2 diabetes. Protein expression and activation of the Akt FOXO3a and Sirt1 p53 pathways were examined in the development of ventricular remodelling in GK rats with and without myocardial infarction (MI). The third and fourth studies examined the effects of levosimendan on ventricular remodelling and gene expression in post-MI GK rats. The results demonstrated that diabetic GK rats develop both modest hypertension and features similar to diabetic cardiomyopathy including cardiac dysfunction, LV hypertrophy and fibrosis and increased apoptotic signalling. MI induced a sustained increase in cardiomyocyte apoptosis in GK rats together with aggravated LV hypertrophy and fibrosis. The GK rat myocardium exhibited decreased Akt- FOXO3a phosphorylation and increased nuclear translocation of FOXO3a and overproduction of the Sirt1 protein. Treatment with levosimendan decreased cardiomyocyte apoptosis, senescence and LV hypertrophy and altered the gene expression profile in GK rat myocardium. The findings indicate that impaired cardioprotection via Akt FOXO3a and p38 MAPK is associated with increased apoptosis, whereas Sirt1 functions in counteracting apoptosis and the development of LV hypertrophy in the GK rat myocardium. Overall, levosimendan treatment protects against post-MI ventricular remodelling and alters the gene expression profile in the GK rat myocardium.

Levosimendaanin vaikutusmekanismi ja nykyinen merkitys sydämen vajaatoiminnan hoidossa

Sydämen vajaatoiminta on erilaisista sydän- ja verisuonisairauksista aiheutuva monimuotoinen oireyhtymä, johon sairastuneiden ja kuolleiden potilaiden määrä on yhä suuri. Sen patofysiologiaan voi kuulua muun muassa sympaattisen hermoston ja reniini-angiotensiini-aldosteroni–järjestelmän aktiivisuutta, huonosti supistuva vasen kammio, sydämen uudelleenmuokkautumista, muutoksia [Ca2+]i:n säätelyssä, kardiomyosyyttien apoptoosia sekä systeeminen tulehdustila. Johonkin osaan sairauden patofysiologiasta eivät nykyiset lääkehoidot riittävästi vaikuta. Klassiset inotroopit lisäävät sydämen supistusvireyttä kasvattamalla solunsisäistä Ca2+-pitoisuutta, mutta ne lisäävät rytmihäiriöriskiä, sydämen hapenkulutusta sekä heikentävät ennustetta. Levosimendaani, kalsiumherkistäjä, lisää sydämen supistusvoimaa [Ca2+]i:ta kohottamatta herkistämällä sydänlihaksen kalsiumin vaikutuksille. Lisäksi levosimendaani avaa sarkolemmaalisia ja mitokondriaalisia K+-kanavia, jotka välittävät vasodilataatiota ja kardioprotektiota. Suurilla annoksilla levosimendaani on selektiivinen PDE3-estäjä. Levosimendaania suositellaan äkillisesti pahentuneen sydämen vajaatoiminnan hoitoon, mutta muitakin lupaavia indikaatioita sille on keksitty. Esimerkiksi kroonisesti annosteltu oraalinen levosimendaani on suojannut kardiovaskulaarijärjestelmää ja parantanut selviytymistä in vivo. Erikoistyössä selvitettiin kroonisesti annostellun oraalisen levosimendaanin, valsartaanin ja näiden kombinaatioterapian vaikutuksia selviytymiseen, verenpaineeseen sekä sydämen hypertrofioitumiseen Dahlin suolaherkillä (Dahl/Rapp) rotilla. Levosimendaanin suojavaikutus ilmeni vähäisempänä kuolleisuutena, mutta ero ei ollut tilastollisesti merkitsevä kontrolliryhmään nähden. Kombinaatioterapia suojasi rottia kardiovaskulaarikuolleisuudelta ja vähensi todennäköisesti verenpaineesta riippuvaisesti sydämen hypertofioitumista niin sydän/kehonpaino–suhteen kuin ultraäänitutkimuksenkin perusteella arvioituna paremmin kuin kumpikaan lääke monoterapiana. Lääkekombinaatio alensi additiivisesti hypertensiota kaikissa mittauspisteissä. Sydämen systolista toimintaa levosimendaani kohensi vain vähäisesti. Dahl/Rapp-rotille kehittyikin pääosin hypertension indusoimaa diastolista sydämen vajaatoimintaa kohonneen IVRT-arvon perusteella. Levosimendaani sekä monoterapiana että kombinaatioterapiana valsartaanin kanssa vähensi sydämen diastolista vajaatoimintaa.

Cyclin dependent protein kinases as drug targets – potential in cardiovascular diseases

Complications of atherosclerosis such as myocardial infarction and stroke are the primary cause of death in Western societies. The development of atherosclerotic lesions is a complex process, including endothelial cell dysfunction, inflammation, extracellular matrix alteration and vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) proliferation and migration. Various cell cycle regulatory proteins control VSMC proliferation. Protein kinases called cyclin dependent kinases (CDKs) play a major role in regulation of cell cycle progression. At specific phases of the cell cycle, CDKs pair with cyclins to become catalytically active and phosphorylate numerous substrates contributing to cell cycle progression. CDKs are also regulated by cyclin dependent kinase inhibitors, activating and inhibitory phosphorylation, proteolysis and transcription factors. This tight regulation of cell cycle is essential; thus its deregulation is connected to the development of cancer and other proliferative disorders such as atherosclerosis and restenosis as well as neurodegenerative diseases. Proteins of the cell cycle provide potential and attractive targets for drug development. Consequently, various low molecular weight CDK inhibitors have been identified and are in clinical development. Tylophorine is a phenanthroindolizidine alkaloid, which has been shown to inhibit the growth of several human cancer cell lines. It was used in Ayurvedic medicine to treat inflammatory disorders. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of tylophorine on human umbilical vein smooth muscle cell (HUVSMC) proliferation, cell cycle progression and the expression of various cell cycle regulatory proteins in order to confirm the findings made with tylophorine in rat cells. We used several methods to determine our hypothesis, including cell proliferation assay, western blot and flow cytometric cell cycle distribution analysis. We demonstrated by cell proliferation assay that tylophorine inhibits HUVSMC proliferation dose-dependently with an IC50 value of 164 nM ± 50. Western blot analysis was used to determine the effect of tylophorine on expression of cell cycle regulatory proteins. Tylophorine downregulates cyclin D1 and p21 expression levels. The results of tylophorine’s effect on phosphorylation sites of p53 were not consistent. More sensitive methods are required in order to completely determine this effect. We used flow cytometric cell cycle analysis to investigate whether tylophorine interferes with cell cycle progression and arrests cells in a specific cell cycle phase. Tylophorine was shown to induce the accumulation of asynchronized HUVSMCs in S phase. Tylophorine has a significant effect on cell cycle, but its role as cell cycle regulator in treatment of vascular proliferative diseases and cancer requires more experiments in vitro and in vivo.

Hostility: A prospective study of the genetic and environmental background and associations with cardiovascular risk

Hostility is a multidimensional construct having wide effects on society. In its different forms, hostility is related to a large array of social and health problems, such as criminality, substance abuse, depression, and cardiovascular risks. Identifying and tackling early-life factors that contribute to hostility may have public health significance. Although the variance in hostility is estimated to be 18-50 percent heritable, there are significant gaps in knowledge regarding the molecular genetics of hostility. It is known that a cold and unsupportive home atmosphere in childhood predicts a child s later hostility. However, the long-term effects of care-giving quality on hostility in adulthood and the role of genes in this association are unclear. The present dissertation is part of the ongoing population-based prospective Young Finns study, which commenced in 1980 with 3596 3-18-year-old boys and girls who were followed for 27 years. The specific aims of the dissertation were first to study the antecedents of hostility by looking at 1) the genetic background, 2) the early environmental predictors, and 3) the gene environment interplay behind hostility. As a second aim, the thesis endeavored to examine 4) the association between hostility and cardiovascular risks, and 5) the moderating effect of demographic factors, such as gender and socioeconomic status, on this association. The study found potential gene polymorphisms from chromosomes 7, 14, 17, and 22 suggestively associated with hostility. Of early environmental influences, breastfeeding and early care-giving were found to predict hostility in adulthood. In addition, a serotonin receptor 2A polymorphism rs6313 moderated the effect of early care-giving on later hostile attitudes. Furthermore, hostility was shown to predict cardiovascular risks, such as metabolic syndrome and inflammation. Finally, parental socioeconomic status was found to moderate the association between anger and early atherosclerosis. The new genetic and early environmental antecedents of hostility identified in this research may help in understanding the development of hostility and its health risks, and in planning appropriate prevention. The significance of early influences on this development is stressed. Although the markers studied are individual- and family-related factors, these may be influenced at the societal level by giving accurate information to all individuals concerned and by improving the societal circumstances.

Oral health and kidney disease with emphasis on diabetic nephropathy

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a worldwide health problem, with adverse outcomes of cardiovascular disease and premature death. The ageing of populations along with the growing prevalence of chronic diseases such as diabetes and hypertension is leading to worldwide increase in the number of CKD patients. It has become evident that inflammation plays an important role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis complications. CKD patients also have an increased risk of atherosclerosis complications (including myocardial infarction, sudden death to cardiac arrhythmia, cerebrovascular accidents, and peripheral vascular disease). In line with this, oral and dental problems can be an important source of systemic inflammation. A decline in oral health may potentially act as an early marker of systemic disease progression. This series of studies examined oral health of CKD patients from predialysis, to dialysis and kidney transplantation in a 10-year follow-up study and in a cross-sectional study of predialysis CKD patients. Patients had clinical and radiographic oral and dental examination, resting and stimulated saliva flow rates were measured, whilst the biochemical and microbiological composition of saliva was analyzed. Lifestyle and oral symptoms were recorded using a questionnaire, and blood parameters were collected from the hospital records. The hypothesis was that the oral health status, symptoms, sensations, salivary flow rates and salivary composition vary in different renal failure stages and depend on the etiology of the kidney disease. No statistically significant difference were seen in the longitudinal study in the clinical parameters. However, some saliva parameters after renal transplantation were significantly improved compared to levels at the predialysis stage. The urea concentration of saliva was high in all stages. The salivary and plasma urea concentrations followed a similar trend, showing the lowest values in kidney transplant patients. Levels of immunoglobulin (Ig) A, G and M all decreased significantly after kidney transplantation. Increased concentrations of IgA, IgG and IgM may reflect disintegration of the oral epithelium and are usually markers of poor general oral condition. In the cross-sectional investigation of predialysis CKD patients we compared oral health findings of diabetic nephropathy patients to those with other kidney disease than diabetes. The results showed eg. more dental caries and lower stimulated salivary flow rates in the diabetic patients. HbA1C values of the diabetic patients were significantly higher than those in the other kidney disease group. A statistically significant difference was observed in the number of drugs used daily in the diabetic nephropathy group than in the other kidney disease group. In the logistic regression analyses, age was the principal explanatory factor for high salivary total protein concentration, and for low unstimulated salivary flow. Poor dental health, severity of periodontal disease seemed to be an explanatory factor for high salivary albumin concentrations. Salivary urea levels were significantly linked with diabetic nephropathy and with serum urea concentrations. Contrary to our expectation, however, diabetic nephropathy did not seem to affect periodontal health more severely than the other kidney diseases. Although diabetes is known to associate with xerostomia and other oral symptoms, it did not seem to increase the prevalence of oral discomfort. In summary, this series of studies has provided new information regarding the oral health of CKD patients. As expected, the commencement of renal disease reflects in oral symptoms and signs. Diabetic nephropathy, in particular, appears to impart a requirement for special attention in the oral health care of patients suffering from this disease.

Myoblast Sheet Transplantation for Treatment of Heart Failure after Myocardial Infarction

Heart failure is a common, severe, and progressive condition associated with high mortality and morbidity. Because of population-aging in the coming decades, heart failure is estimated to reach epidemic proportions. Current medical and surgical treatments have reduced mortality, but the prognosis for patients has remained poor. Transplantation of skeletal myoblasts has raised hope of regenerating the failing heart and compensating for lost cardiac contractile tissue. In the present work, we studied epicardial transplantation of tissue-engineered myoblast sheets for treatment of heart failure. We employed a rat model of myocardial infarction-induced acute and chronic heart failure by left anterior descending coronary artery ligation. We then transplanted myoblast sheets genetically modified to resist cell death after transplantation by expressing antiapoptotic gene bcl2. In addition, we evaluated the regenerative capacity of myoblast sheets expressing the cardioprotective cytokine hepatocyte growth factor in a rat chronic heart failure model. Furthermore, we utilized in vitro cardiomyocyte and endothelial cell culture models as well as microarray gene expression analysis to elucidate molecular mechanisms mediating the therapeutic effects of myoblast sheet transplantation. Our results demonstrate that Bcl2-expression prolonged myoblast sheet survival in rat hearts after transplantation and induced secretion of cardioprotective, proangiogenic cytokines. After acute myocardial infarction, these sheets attenuated left ventricular dysfunction and myocardial damage, and they induced therapeutic angiogenesis. In the chronic heart failure model, inhibition of graft apoptosis by Bcl-2 improved cardiac function, supported survival of cardiomyocytes in the infarcted area, and induced angiogenesis in a vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1- and 2-dependent mechanism. Hepatocyte growth factor-secreting myoblast sheets further enhanced the angiogenic efficacy of myoblast sheet therapy. Moreover, myoblast-secreted paracrine factors protected cardiomyocytes against oxidative stress in an epidermal growth factor receptor- and c-Met dependent manner. This protection was associated with induction of antioxidative genes and activation of the unfolded protein response. Our results provide evidence that inhibiting myoblast sheet apoptosis can enhance the sheets efficacy for treating heart failure after acute and chronic myocardial infarction. Furthermore, we show that myoblast sheets can serve as vehicles for delivery of growth factors, and induce therapeutic angiogenesis in the chronically ischemic heart. Finally, myoblasts induce, in a paracine manner, a cardiomyocyte-protective response against oxidative stress. Our study elucidates novel mechanisms of myoblast transplantation therapy, and suggests effective means to improve this therapy for the benefit of the heart failure patient.

Sydämen hypertrofian ja kroonisen vajaatoiminnan farmakologinen hoito

Sydämen krooninen vajaatoiminta on merkittävä maailmanlaajuinen ongelma. Se on erilaisten sydän- ja verisuonisairauksien aiheuttama monimuotoinen oireyhtymä. Sydämen vasemman kammion hypertrofia eli sydämen seinämien paksuuntuminen on yksi keskeinen tekijä, joka voi olla sydämen vajaatoiminnan taustalla. Kohonnut verenpaine on yleisin syy, joka johtaa sydänlihaksen paksuuntumiseen. Tämä johtaa sydämen pumppaustoiminnan häiriintymiseen, erilaisten neurohormonaalisten mekanismien aktivaatioon ja edelleen sydämen vajaatoimintaan. Sydämen vajaatoiminnan neurohormonaalisista mekanismeista tärkeimmät ovat reniini-angiotensiini-aldosteroni-järjestelmän ja sympaattisen hermoston aktivaatio, sydämen rakenteiden uudelleenmuovautuminen, sydänlihassolujen apoptoosi ja systeeminen tulehdustila. Sydämen hypertrofiaa ja sen syntymistä pyritään estämään kohonneen verenpaineen lääkehoidolla. Reniini-angiotensiini-aldosteronijärjestelmällä on keskeinen merkitys sydämen vajaatoiminnassa. Sydämen vajaatoiminnan ennusteeseen vaikuttavista lääkeaineista angiotensiinikonvertasin estäjät (ACEestäjät) ovat säilyttäneet johtoasemansa jo vuosikymmenten ajan. Angiotensiinireseptoreiden salpaajien (AT1-salpaajien) odotettiin syrjäyttävän ACE-estäjät sydämen vajaatoiminnan hoidossa, mutta toistaiseksi niitä pidetään vain vaihtoehtoisina lääkkeinä. Sympaattisen hermoston aktivaatiota vähentävät β-salpaajat ovat vakiinnuttaneet asemansa toiseksi tärkeimpänä lääkeryhmänä. Diureetit ovat paljon käytetty lääkeaineryhmä sydämen vajaatoiminnan hoidossa, mutta niistä ainoastaan aldosteroniantagonisteilla on tutkitusti ennustetta parantavaa vaikutusta. Kroonisen vajaatoiminnan hoidossa käytetään edelleen myös digoksiinia. Tulevaisuudessa sydämen vajaatoiminnan ennusteeseen vaikuttavia lääkeaineita voivat olla reniinin estäjät, neutraaliendopeptidaasin estäjät, vasopressiinin antagonistit tai inflammatroisiin sytokiineihin vaikuttavat molekyylit. Erikoistyön kokeellisessa osiossa tarkoituksena oli tutkia sydämen hypertrofian kehittymistä vatsa-aortta kuristetuilla rotilla ja kalsiumherkistäjä levosimendaanin sekä AT1-salpaaja valsartaanin vaikutuksia hypertrofian kehittymiseen. Kokeellisessa osiossa arvioitiin myös sydämen hypertrofian ja vajaatoiminnan jyrsijämallina käytetyn vatsa-aortan kuristuksen (koarktaation) toimivuutta ja vaikutuksia ultraäänen avulla määritettyihin kardiovaskulaarisiin parametreihin. Vatsa-aortta kuristettiin munuaisvaltimoiden yläpuolelta. Kuristus saa aikaan verenpaineen kohoamisen ja sydämen työtaakan lisääntymisen. Pitkittyessään tila johtaa sydänlihaksen hypertrofiaan ja vajaatoimintaan. 64 eläintä jaettiin ryhmiin, siten että jokaiseen ryhmään tuli kahdeksan eläintä. Ryhmistä kolmelle annettiin lääkeaineena levosimendaania kolmella eri päiväannoksella (0,01 mg/kg; 0,10 mg/kg; 1,00 mg/kg) ja kolmelle valsartaania kolmella eri päiväannoksella (0,10 mg/kg; 1,00 mg/kg; 10,00 mg/kg) juomaveden mukana. Lääkitys aloitettiin leikkauksen jälkeen ja jatkettiin kahdeksan viikon ajan. Kardiovaskulaariset parametrit, kuten isovolumetrinen relaksaatioaika (IVRT), vasemman kammion läpimitta systolessa ja diastolessa sekä seinämäpaksuudet, ejektiofraktio (EF), supistuvuusosuus (FS), minuuttitilavuus (CO) ja iskutilavuus (SV) määritettiin kahdeksan viikon kuluttua leikkauksesta ultraäänitutkimuksen avulla. Lisäksi määritettiin eläinten sydämen paino suhteessa ruumiin painoon. Tuloksia verrattiin ilman lääkehoitoa olleeseen koarktaatioryhmään. Eläinmallin toimivuutta arvioitiin vertaamalla koarktaatioryhmän tuloksia sham-operoidun ryhmän tuloksiin. Levosimendaanilla havaittiin työssä sydämen systolista toimintaa parantava vaikutus. Tämä näkyi tendenssinä parantaa ejektiofraktioita ja vasemman kammion supistuvuusosuuksia. Sydämen diastoliseen toimintaan ei kummallakaan lääkeaineella ollut merkittävää vaikutusta. Diastolista toimintaa arvioitiin isovolumetrisen relaksaatioajan muutoksilla. Sydämen hypertrofian kehittymiseen ei kummallakaan lääkeaineella ollut merkittävää vaikutusta. Eläinmallin todettiin mallintavan hyvin sydämen hypetrofiaa ihmisellä, mutta ei niinkään sydämen vajaatoimintaa.

Biomarkers in acute respiratory failure

Acute respiratory failure (ARF) is the most common type of organ failure leading to the need for intensive care. It is often secondary to acute lung injury (ALI) and its more severe form, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). ARF, and especially ALI and ARDS, cause increased morbidity, and mortality rates remain high (up to 40%). These disorders are characterised by inflammatory reaction and tissue damage. In some cases, inflammation continues and leads to an overwhelming repair process with ongoing fibrosis, accompanied by organ dysfunction and eventually a loss of function. Measuring the magnitude of the inflammation, and the repair process, would theoretically offer information concerning outcome. Early identification of patients whose disease process is likely to proceed unfavourably, would help clinicians to optimise their treatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiology of ARF, its treatment, and outcome in Finland, with special interest in biomarkers, and their value in the prediction of mortality. Altogether, 958 adult patients treated with ventilatory support were prospectively included in this study during an eight week period in 2007 in 25 intensive care units. Plasma aminoterminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) was assessed in 602 patients, and plasma cell-free DNA in 580 patients, to evaluate their prognostic value in ARF. Markers of collagen metabolism were studied in longitudinal serum samples in 68 patients in order to evaluate their evolution in ARF and the association to multiple organ dysfunction (MOD). Ventilatory support was used in 39% of all ICU patients. The estimated incidence of ARF was 149.5/100 000 per year. Median tidal volumes used were higher than recommended. Overall mortality at 90 days was 31%. Plasma NT-pro-BNP and cell-free DNA were highly increased in the majority of patients. Both markers were independent predictors of 90-day mortality, but their discriminative power was at most moderate when used separately. The mortality was highest in those patients, in whom both biomarkers were over their separate cut-off values. Thus, combined use of these biomarkers may increase their clinical value in the mortality prediction. The markers of collagen metabolism changed significantly over time in surviving patients. None of these markers did associate with MOD in these patients.