Monetary Policy Implementation in the Interbank Market

The liquidity crisis that swept through the financial markets in 2007 triggered multi-billion losses and forced buyouts of some large banks. The resulting credit crunch is sometimes compared to the great recession in the early twentieth century. But the crisis also serves as a reminder of the significance of the interbank market and of proper central bank policy in this market. This thesis deals with implementation of monetary policy in the interbank market and examines how central bank tools affect commercial banks' decisions. I answer the following questions: • What is the relationship between the policy setup and interbank interest rate volatility? (averaging reserve requirement reduces the volatility) • What can explain a weak relationship between market liquidity and the interest rate? (high reserve requirement buffer) • What determines banks' decisions on when to satisfy the reserve requirement? (market frictions) • How did the liquidity crisis that began in 2007 affect interbank market behaviour? (resulted in higher credit risk and trading frictions as well as expected liquidity shortage)

Essays on Stock Market Reactions to New Information

A functioning stock market is an essential component of a competitive economy, since it provides a mechanism for allocating the economy’s capital stock. In an ideal situation, the stock market will steer capital in a manner that maximizes the total utility of the economy. As prices of traded stocks depend on and vary with information available to investors, it is apparent that information plays a crucial role in a functioning stock market. However, even though information indisputably matters, several issues regarding how stock markets process and react to new information still remain unanswered. The purpose of this thesis is to explore the link between new information and stock market reactions. The first essay utilizes new methodological tools in order to investigate the average reaction of investors to new financial statement information. The second essay explores the behavior of different types of investors when new financial statement information is disclosed to the market. The third essay looks into the interrelation between investor size, behavior and overconfidence. The fourth essay approaches the puzzle of negative skewness in stock returns from an altogether different angle than previous studies. The first essay presents evidence of the second derivatives of some financial statement signals containing more information than the first derivatives. Further, empirical evidence also indicates that some of the investigated signals proxy risk while others contain information priced with a delay. The second essay documents different categories of investors demonstrating systematical differences in their behavior when new financial statement information arrives to the market. In addition, a theoretical model building on differences in investor overconfidence is put forward in order to explain the observed behavior. The third essay shows that investor size describes investor behavior very well. This finding is predicted by the model proposed in the second essay, and hence strengthens the model. The behavioral differences between investors of different size furthermore have significant economic implications. Finally, the fourth essay finds strong evidence of management news disclosure practices causing negative skewness in stock returns.

Intraday Dynamics of International Equity Markets

The increased availability of high frequency data sets have led to important new insights in understanding of financial markets. The use of high frequency data is interesting and persuasive, since it can reveal new information that cannot be seen in lower data aggregation. This dissertation explores some of the many important issues connected with the use, analysis and application of high frequency data. These include the effects of intraday seasonal, the behaviour of time varying volatility, the information content of various market data, and the issue of inter market linkages utilizing high frequency 5 minute observations from major European and the U.S stock indices, namely DAX30 of Germany, CAC40 of France, SMI of Switzerland, FTSE100 of the UK and SP500 of the U.S. The first essay in the dissertation shows that there are remarkable similarities in the intraday behaviour of conditional volatility across European equity markets. Moreover, the U.S macroeconomic news announcements have significant cross border effect on both, European equity returns and volatilities. The second essay reports substantial intraday return and volatility linkages across European stock indices of the UK and Germany. This relationship appears virtually unchanged by the presence or absence of the U.S stock market. However, the return correlation among the U.K and German markets rises significantly following the U.S stock market opening, which could largely be described as a contemporaneous effect. The third essay sheds light on market microstructure issues in which traders and market makers learn from watching market data, and it is this learning process that leads to price adjustments. This study concludes that trading volume plays an important role in explaining international return and volatility transmissions. The examination concerning asymmetry reveals that the impact of the positive volume changes is larger on foreign stock market volatility than the negative changes. The fourth and the final essay documents number of regularities in the pattern of intraday return volatility, trading volume and bid-ask spreads. This study also reports a contemporaneous and positive relationship between the intraday return volatility, bid ask spread and unexpected trading volume. These results verify the role of trading volume and bid ask quotes as proxies for information arrival in producing contemporaneous and subsequent intraday return volatility. Moreover, asymmetric effect of trading volume on conditional volatility is also confirmed. Overall, this dissertation explores the role of information in explaining the intraday return and volatility dynamics in international stock markets. The process through which the information is incorporated in stock prices is central to all information-based models. The intraday data facilitates the investigation that how information gets incorporated into security prices as a result of the trading behavior of informed and uninformed traders. Thus high frequency data appears critical in enhancing our understanding of intraday behavior of various stock markets’ variables as it has important implications for market participants, regulators and academic researchers.

Essays on Stock Options, Incentives, and Managerial Action

Executive compensation and managerial behavior have received an increasing amount of attention in the financial economics literature since the mid 1970s. The purpose of this thesis is to extend our understanding of managerial compensation, especially how stock option compensation is linked to the actions undertaken by the management. Furthermore, managerial compensation is continuously and heatedly debated in the media and an emerging consensus from this discussion seems to be that there still exists gaps in our knowledge of optimal contracting. In Finland, the first executive stock options were introduced in the 1980s and throughout the last 15 years it has become increasingly popular for Finnish listed firms to use this type of managerial compensation. The empirical work in the thesis is conducted using data from Finland, in contrast to most previous studies that predominantly use U.S. data. Using Finnish data provides insight of how market conditions affect compensation and managerial action and provides an opportunity to explore what parts of the U.S. evidence can be generalized to other markets. The thesis consists of four essays. The first essay investigates the exercise policy of the executive stock option holders in Finland. In summary, Essay 1 contributes to our understanding of the exercise policies by examining both the determinants of the exercise decision and the markets reaction to the actual exercises. The second essay analyzes the factors driving stock option grants using data for Finnish publicly listed firms. Several agency theory based variables are found to have have explanatory power on the likelihood of a stock option grant. Essay 2 also contributes to our understanding of behavioral factors, such as prior stock return, as determinants of stock option compensation. The third essay investigates the tax and stock option motives for share repurchases and dividend distributions. We document strong support for the tax motive for share repurchases. Furthermore, we also analyze the dividend distribution decision in companies with stock options and find a significant difference between companies with and without dividend protected options. We thus document that the cutting of dividends found in previous U.S. studies can be avoided by dividend protection. In the fourth essay we approach the puzzle of negative skewness in stock returns from an altogether different angle than in previous studies. We suggest that negative skewness in stock returns is generated by management disclosure practices and find proof for this. More specifically, we find that negative skewness in daily returns is induced by returns for days when non-scheduled firm specific news is disclosed.

Essays on the Role of Time in Price Discovery (summary section only)

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the role of trade durations in price discovery. The motivation to use trade durations in the study of price discovery is that durations are robust to many microstructure effects that introduce a bias in the measurement of returns volatility. Another motivation to use trade durations in the study of price discovery is that it is difficult to think of economic variables, which really are useful in the determination of the source of volatility at arbitrarily high frequencies. The dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay, the role of trade durations in price discovery is examined with respect to the volatility pattern of stock returns. The theory on volatility is associated with the theory on the information content of trade, dear to the market microstructure theory. The first essay documents that the volatility per transaction is related to the intensity of trade, and a strong relationship between the stochastic process of trade durations and trading variables. In the second essay, the role of trade durations in price discovery is examined with respect to the quantification of risk due to a trading volume of a certain size. The theory on volume is intrinsically associated with the stock volatility pattern. The essay documents that volatility increases, in general, when traders choose to trade with large transactions. In the third essay, the role of trade durations in price discovery is examined with respect to the information content of a trade. The theory on the information content of a trade is associated with the theory on the rate of price revisions in the market. The essay documents that short durations are associated with information. Thus, traders are compensated for responding quickly to information

Essays on Risk Modeling. Applications to Portfolio and Risk Management (summary section only)

In this thesis we deal with the concept of risk. The objective is to bring together and conclude on some normative information regarding quantitative portfolio management and risk assessment. The first essay concentrates on return dependency. We propose an algorithm for classifying markets into rising and falling. Given the algorithm, we derive a statistic: the Trend Switch Probability, for detection of long-term return dependency in the first moment. The empirical results suggest that the Trend Switch Probability is robust over various volatility specifications. The serial dependency in bear and bull markets behaves however differently. It is strongly positive in rising market whereas in bear markets it is closer to a random walk. Realized volatility, a technique for estimating volatility from high frequency data, is investigated in essays two and three. In the second essay we find, when measuring realized variance on a set of German stocks, that the second moment dependency structure is highly unstable and changes randomly. Results also suggest that volatility is non-stationary from time to time. In the third essay we examine the impact from market microstructure on the error between estimated realized volatility and the volatility of the underlying process. With simulation-based techniques we show that autocorrelation in returns leads to biased variance estimates and that lower sampling frequency and non-constant volatility increases the error variation between the estimated variance and the variance of the underlying process. From these essays we can conclude that volatility is not easily estimated, even from high frequency data. It is neither very well behaved in terms of stability nor dependency over time. Based on these observations, we would recommend the use of simple, transparent methods that are likely to be more robust over differing volatility regimes than models with a complex parameter universe. In analyzing long-term return dependency in the first moment we find that the Trend Switch Probability is a robust estimator. This is an interesting area for further research, with important implications for active asset allocation.

Essays on Risk and Return

Perhaps the most fundamental prediction of financial theory is that the expected returns on financial assets are determined by the amount of risk contained in their payoffs. Assets with a riskier payoff pattern should provide higher expected returns than assets that are otherwise similar but provide payoffs that contain less risk. Financial theory also predicts that not all types of risks should be compensated with higher expected returns. It is well-known that the asset-specific risk can be diversified away, whereas the systematic component of risk that affects all assets remains even in large portfolios. Thus, the asset-specific risk that the investor can easily get rid of by diversification should not lead to higher expected returns, and only the shared movement of individual asset returns – the sensitivity of these assets to a set of systematic risk factors – should matter for asset pricing. It is within this framework that this thesis is situated. The first essay proposes a new systematic risk factor, hypothesized to be correlated with changes in investor risk aversion, which manages to explain a large fraction of the return variation in the cross-section of stock returns. The second and third essays investigate the pricing of asset-specific risk, uncorrelated with commonly used risk factors, in the cross-section of stock returns. The three essays mentioned above use stock market data from the U.S. The fourth essay presents a new total return stock market index for the Finnish stock market beginning from the opening of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in 1912 and ending in 1969 when other total return indices become available. Because a total return stock market index for the period prior to 1970 has not been available before, academics and stock market participants have not known the historical return that stock market investors in Finland could have achieved on their investments. The new stock market index presented in essay 4 makes it possible, for the first time, to calculate the historical average return on the Finnish stock market and to conduct further studies that require long time-series of data.

Corporate Governance in China (summary section only)

The negative relationship between economic growth and stock market return is not an anomaly according to evidence documented in many economies. It is argued that future economic growth is largely irrelevant for predicting future equity returns, since long-run equity returns depend mainly on dividend yields and the growth of per share dividends. The economic growth does result in a higher standard of living for consumers, but does not necessarily translate into higher returns for owners of the capital. The divergence in performance between the real sector and stock markets appears to support the above argument. However, this thesis strives to offer an alternative explanation to the apparent divergence within the framework of corporate governance. It argues that weak corporate governance standards in Chinese listed firms exacerbated by poor inventor protection results into a marginalized capital market. Each of the three essays in the thesis addresses one particular aspect of corporate governance on the Chinese stock market in a sequential way through gathering empirical evidence on three distinctive stock market activities. The first essay questions whether significant agency conflicts do exist by building a game on rights issues. It documents significant divergence in interests among shareholders holding different classes of shares. The second essay investigates the level of agency costs by examining value of control through constructing a sample of block transactions. It finds that block transactions that transfer ultimate control entail higher premiums. The third essay looks into possible avenues through which corporate governance standards could be improved by investigating the economic consequences of cross-listing on the Chinese stock market. It finds that, by adopting a higher disclosure standard through cross-listings, firms voluntarily commit themselves to reducing information asymmetry, and consequently command higher valuation than their counterparts.

Conditional Moments in Asset Pricing

A better understanding of stock price changes is important in guiding many economic activities. Since prices often do not change without good reasons, searching for related explanatory variables has involved many enthusiasts. This book seeks answers from prices per se by relating price changes to their conditional moments. This is based on the belief that prices are the products of a complex psychological and economic process and their conditional moments derive ultimately from these psychological and economic shocks. Utilizing information about conditional moments hence makes it an attractive alternative to using other selective financial variables in explaining price changes. The first paper examines the relation between the conditional mean and the conditional variance using information about moments in three types of conditional distributions; it finds that the significance of the estimated mean and variance ratio can be affected by the assumed distributions and the time variations in skewness. The second paper decomposes the conditional industry volatility into a concurrent market component and an industry specific component; it finds that market volatility is on average responsible for a rather small share of total industry volatility — 6 to 9 percent in UK and 2 to 3 percent in Germany. The third paper looks at the heteroskedasticity in stock returns through an ARCH process supplemented with a set of conditioning information variables; it finds that the heteroskedasticity in stock returns allows for several forms of heteroskedasticity that include deterministic changes in variances due to seasonal factors, random adjustments in variances due to market and macro factors, and ARCH processes with past information. The fourth paper examines the role of higher moments — especially skewness and kurtosis — in determining the expected returns; it finds that total skewness and total kurtosis are more relevant non-beta risk measures and that they are costly to be diversified due either to the possible eliminations of their desirable parts or to the unsustainability of diversification strategies based on them.

The Relationship Between Liquidity, Trading Activity and Return - Studies of the Finnish and Swedish Stock Markets

Liquidity, or how easy an investment is to buy or sell, is becoming increasingly important for financial market participants. The objective of this dissertation is to contribute to the understanding of how liquidity affects financial markets. The first essays analyze the actions taken by underwriters immediately after listing to improve liquidity of IPO stock. To estimate the impact of underwriter activity on the pricing of the IPOs, the order book during the first weeks of trading in the IPO stock is studied. Evidence of stabilization and liquidity enhancing activities by underwriters is found. The second half of the dissertation is concerned with the daily trading of stocks where liquidity may be impacted by policy issues such as changes in taxes or exchange fees and by opening the access to the markets for foreign investors. The desirability of a transaction tax on securities trading is addressed. An increase in transaction tax is found to cause lower prices and higher volatility. In the last essay the objective is to determine if the liquidity of a security has an impact on the return investors require. The results support the notion that returns are negatively correlated to liquidity.

Modeling Nonlinearities and Asymmetries in Asset Pricing

Financial time series tend to behave in a manner that is not directly drawn from a normal distribution. Asymmetries and nonlinearities are usually seen and these characteristics need to be taken into account. To make forecasts and predictions of future return and risk is rather complicated. The existing models for predicting risk are of help to a certain degree, but the complexity in financial time series data makes it difficult. The introduction of nonlinearities and asymmetries for the purpose of better models and forecasts regarding both mean and variance is supported by the essays in this dissertation. Linear and nonlinear models are consequently introduced in this dissertation. The advantages of nonlinear models are that they can take into account asymmetries. Asymmetric patterns usually mean that large negative returns appear more often than positive returns of the same magnitude. This goes hand in hand with the fact that negative returns are associated with higher risk than in the case where positive returns of the same magnitude are observed. The reason why these models are of high importance lies in the ability to make the best possible estimations and predictions of future returns and for predicting risk.

Short-term Price Behavior and the Effect of Foreign Investors in Finnish Equity Markets (summary section only)

As globalization and capital free movement has increased, so has interest in the effects of that global money flow, especially during financial crises. The concern has been that large global money flows will affect the pricing of small local markets by causing, in particular, overreaction. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the body of work concerning short-term under- and overreaction and the short-term effects of foreign investment flow in the small Finnish equity markets. This thesis also compares foreign execution return to domestic execution return. This study’s results indicate that short-term under- and overreaction occurs in domestic-buy portfolios (domestic net buying) rather than in foreign-buy portfolios. This under- and overreaction, however, is not economically meaningful after controlling for the bid-ask bounce effect. Based on this finding, one can conclude that foreign investors do not have a destabilizing effect in the short-term in the Finnish markets. Foreign activity affects short-term returns. When foreign investors are net buyers (sellers) there are positive (negative) market adjusted returns. Literature related to nationality and institutional effect leads us to expect these kind of results. These foreign flows are persistent at a 5 % to 21 % level and the persistence of foreign buy flow is higher than the foreign sell flow. Foreign daily trading execution is worse than domestic execution. Literature which quantifies foreign investors as liquidity demanders and literature related to front-running leads us to expect poorer foreign execution than domestic execution.

Angel Investing in Finland: An Analysis Based on Agency Theory and the Incomplete Contracting Theory

Wealthy individuals - business angels who invest a share of their net worth in entrepreneurial ventures - form an essential part of an informal venture capital market that can secure funding for entrepreneurial ventures. In Finland, business angels represent an untapped pool of capital that can contribute to fostering entrepreneurial development. In addition, business angels can bridge knowledge gaps in new business ventures by means of making their human capital available. This study has two objectives. The first is to gain an understanding of the characteristics and investment behaviour of Finnish business angels. The strongest focus here is on the due diligence procedures and their involvement post investment. The second objective is to assess whether agency theory and the incomplete contacting theory are useful theoretical lenses in the arena of business angels. To achieve the second objective, this study investigates i) how risk is mitigated in the investment process, ii) how uncertainty influences the comprehensiveness of due diligence as well as iii) how control is allocated post investment. Research hypotheses are derived from assumptions underlying agency theory and the incomplete contacting theory. The data for this study comprise interviews with 53 business angels. In terms of sample size this is the largest on Finnish business angels. The research hypotheses in this study are tested using regression analysis. This study suggests that the Finnish informal venture capital market appears to be comprised of a limited number of business angels whose style of investing much resembles their formal counterparts’. Much focus is placed on managing risks prior to making the investment by strong selectiveness and by a relatively comprehensive due diligence. The involvement is rarely on a day-to-day basis and many business angels seem to see board membership as a more suitable alternative than involvement in the operations of an entrepreneurial venture. The uncertainty involved does not seem to drive an increase in due diligence. On the contrary, it would appear that due diligence is more rigorous in safer later stage investments and when the business angels have considerable previous experience as investors. Finnish business angels’ involvement post investment is best explained by their degree of ownership in the entrepreneurial venture. It seems that when investors feel they are sufficiently rewarded, in terms of an adequate equity stake, they are willing to involve themselves actively in their investments. The lack of support for a relationship between increased uncertainty and the comprehensiveness of due diligence may partly be explained by an increasing trend towards portfolio diversification. This is triggered by a taxation system that favours investments through investment companies rather than direct investments. Many business angels appear to have substituted a specialization strategy that builds on reducing uncertainty for a diversification strategy that builds on reducing firm specific (idiosyncratic) risk by holding shares in ventures whose returns are not expected to exhibit a strong positive correlation.

New Evidence on the Properties of the Financial Statement Information Pricing Process

This study contributes to our knowledge of how information contained in financial statements is interpreted and priced by the stock market in two aspects. First, the empirical findings indicate that investors interpret some of the information contained in new financial statements in the context of the information of prior financial statements. Second, two central hypotheses offered in earlier literature to explain the significant connection between publicly available financial statement information and future abnormal returns, that the signals proxy for risk and that the information is priced with a delay, are evaluated utilizing a new methodology. It is found that the mentioned significant connection for some financial statement signals can be explained by that the signals proxy for risk and for other financial statement signals by that the information contained in the signals is priced with a delay.

Real Estate Investment and Uncertainty: Econometric Modelling using Finnish Data

The purpose of this paper is to test for the effect of uncertainty in a model of real estate investment in Finland during the hihhly cyclical period of 1975 to 1998. We use two alternative measures of uncertainty. The first measure is the volatility of stock market returns and the second measure is the heterogeneity in the answers of the quarterly business survey of the Confederation of Finnish Industry and Employers. The econometric analysis is based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model and the paper applies a 'general-to-specific' modelling approach. We find that the measure of heterogeneity is significant in the model, but the volatility of stock market returns is not. The empirical results give some evidence of an uncertainty-induced threshold slowing down real estate investment in Finland.