Categorical Meteorological Products: Evaluation and Analysis

In meteorology, observations and forecasts of a wide range of phenomena for example, snow, clouds, hail, fog, and tornados can be categorical, that is, they can only have discrete values (e.g., "snow" and "no snow"). Concentrating on satellite-based snow and cloud analyses, this thesis explores methods that have been developed for evaluation of categorical products and analyses. Different algorithms for satellite products generate different results; sometimes the differences are subtle, sometimes all too visible. In addition to differences between algorithms, the satellite products are influenced by physical processes and conditions, such as diurnal and seasonal variation in solar radiation, topography, and land use. The analysis of satellite-based snow cover analyses from NOAA, NASA, and EUMETSAT, and snow analyses for numerical weather prediction models from FMI and ECMWF was complicated by the fact that we did not have the true knowledge of snow extent, and we were forced simply to measure the agreement between different products. The Sammon mapping, a multidimensional scaling method, was then used to visualize the differences between different products. The trustworthiness of the results for cloud analyses [EUMETSAT Meteorological Products Extraction Facility cloud mask (MPEF), together with the Nowcasting Satellite Application Facility (SAFNWC) cloud masks provided by Météo-France (SAFNWC/MSG) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SAFNWC/PPS)] compared with ceilometers of the Helsinki Testbed was estimated by constructing confidence intervals (CIs). Bootstrapping, a statistical resampling method, was used to construct CIs, especially in the presence of spatial and temporal correlation. The reference data for validation are constantly in short supply. In general, the needs of a particular project drive the requirements for evaluation, for example, for the accuracy and the timeliness of the particular data and methods. In this vein, we discuss tentatively how data provided by general public, e.g., photos shared on the Internet photo-sharing service Flickr, can be used as a new source for validation. Results show that they are of reasonable quality and their use for case studies can be warmly recommended. Last, the use of cluster analysis on meteorological in-situ measurements was explored. The Autoclass algorithm was used to construct compact representations of synoptic conditions of fog at Finnish airports.

From ‘Afflicted’ to Activists: Structural Violence and Climate Change Discourse in the States of Pernambuco and Paraíba in Northeast Brazil

This study approaches the problem of poverty in the hinterlands of Northeast Brazil through the concept of structural violence, linking the environmental threats posed by climate change, especially those related to droughts, to the broader social struggles in the region. When discussions about potentials and rights are incorporated into the problematic of poverty, a deeper insight is obtained regarding the various factors behind the phenomenon. It is generally believed that climate change is affecting the already marginalized and poor more than those of higher social standing, and will increasingly do so in the future. The data for this study was collected during a three month field work in the states of Pernambuco and Paraíba in Northeast Brazil. The main methods used were semi-structured interviews and participant observation, including attending seminars concerning climate change on the field. The focus of the work is to compare both layman and expert perceptions on what climate change is about, and question the assumptions about its effects in the future, mainly that of increased numbers of ‘climate refugees’ or people forced to migrate due to changes in climate. The focus on droughts, as opposed to other manifestations of climate change, arises from the fact that droughts are not only phenomena that develop over a longer time span than floods or hurricanes, but is also due to the historical persistence of droughts in the region, and both the institutional and cultural linkages that have evolved around it. The instances of structural violence that are highlighted in this study; the drought industry, land use, and the social and power relations present in the region, including those between the civil society, the state and the private agribusiness sector, all work against a backdrop of symbolic and moral realms of value production, where relations between the different actors are being negotiated anew with the rise of the climate change discourse. The main theoretical framework of the study consists of Johan Galtung’s and Paul Farmer’s theory of structural violence, Ulrich Beck’s theory of the risk society, and James Scott’s theory of everyday peasant resistance.

The German Military Entrepreneur Ernst von Mansfeld and His Conduct of Asymmetrical Warfare in the Thirty Years War

The dissertation examines aspects of asymmetrical warfare in the war-making of the German military entrepreneur Ernst von Mansfeld during his involvement in the Thirty Years War. Due to the nature of the inquiry, which combines history with military-political theory, the methodological approach of the dissertation is interdisciplinary. The theoretical framework used is that of asymmetrical warfare. The primary sources used in the dissertation are mostly political pamphlets and newsletters. Other sources include letters, documents, and contemporaneous chronicles. The secondary sources are divided into two categories, literature on the history of the Thirty Years War and textbooks covering the theory of asymmetrical warfare. The first category includes biographical works on Ernst von Mansfeld, as well as general histories of the Thirty Years War and seventeenth-century warfare. The second category combines military theory and political science. The structure of the dissertation consists of eight lead chapters, including an introduction and conclusion. The introduction covers the theoretical approach and aims of the dissertation, and provides a brief overlook of the sources and previous research on Ernst von Mansfeld and asymmetrical warfare in the Thirty Years War. The second chapter covers aspects of Mansfeld s asymmetrical warfare from the perspective of operational art. The third chapter investigates the illegal and immoral aspects of Mansfeld s war-making. The fourth chapter compares the differing methods by which Mansfeld and his enemies raised and financed their armies. The fifth chapter investigates Mansfeld s involvement in indirect warfare. The sixth chapter presents Mansfeld as an object and an agent of image and information war. The seventh chapter looks into the counter-reactions, which Mansfeld s asymmetrical warfare provoked from his enemies. The eighth chapter offers a conclusion of the findings. The dissertation argues that asymmetrical warfare presented itself in all the aforementioned areas of Mansfeld s conduct during the Thirty Years War. The operational asymmetry arose from the freedom of movement that Mansfeld enjoyed, while his enemies were constrained by the limits of positional warfare. As a non-state operator Mansfeld was also free to flout the rules of seventeenth-century warfare, which his enemies could not do with equal ease. The raising and financing of military forces was another source of asymmetry, because the nature of early seventeenth-century warfare favoured private military entrepreneurs rather than embryonic fiscal-military states. The dissertation also argues that other powers fought their own asymmetrical and indirect wars against the Habsburgs through Mansfeld s agency. Image and information were asymmetrical weapons, which were both aimed against Mansfeld and utilized by him. Finally, Mansfeld s asymmetrical threat forced the Habsburgs to adapt to his methods, which ultimately lead to the formation of a subcontracted Imperial Army under the management and leadership of Albrecht von Wallenstein. Therefore Mansfeld s asymmetrical warfare ultimately paved way for the kind of state-monopolized, organised, and symmetrical warfare that has prevailed from 1648 onwards. The conclusion is that Mansfeld s conduct in the Thirty Years War matched the criteria for asymmetrical warfare. While traditional historiography treated Mansfeld as an anomaly in the age of European state formation, his asymmetrical warfare has begun to bear resemblance to the contemporary conflicts, where nation states no longer hold the monopoly of violence.

Visuaalisen työmuistin vapaasti jaettavat resurssit : muistiedustusten lukumäärä ja tarkkuus ääriviivakuvioilla

According to the most prevalent view, there are 3-4 fixed "slots" in visual working memory for temporary storage. Recently this view has been challenged with a theory of dynamic resources which are restricted in their totality but can be freely allocated. The aim of this study is to clarify which one of the theories better describes the performance in visual working memory tasks with contour shapes. Thus in this study, the interest is in both the number of recalled stimuli and the precision of the memory representations. Stimuli in the experiments were radial frequency patterns, which were constructed by sinusoidally modulating the radius of a circle. Five observers participated in the experiment and it consisted of two different tasks. In the delayed discrimination task the number of recalled stimuli was measured with 2-interval forced choice task. Observer was shown serially two displays with 1, 5 s ISI (inter stimulus interval). Displays contained 1-6 patterns and they differed from each other with changed amplitude in one pattern. The participant s task was to report whether the changed pattern had higher amplitude in the first or in the second interval. The amount of amplitude change was defined with QUEST-procedure and the 75 % discrimination threshold was measured in the task. In the recall task the precision of the memory representations was measured with subjective adjustment method. First, observer was shown 1-6 patterns and after 1, 5 s ISI one location of the previously shown pattern was cued. Observer s task was to adjust amplitude of a probe pattern to match the amplitude of the pattern in working memory. In the delayed discrimination task the performance of all observes declined smoothly when the number of presented patterns was increased. The result supports the resource theory of working memory as there was no sudden fall in the performance. The amplitude threshold for one item was 0.01 0.05 and as the number of items increased from 1 to 6 there was a 4 15 -fold linear increase in the amplitude threshold (0.14 0.29). In the recall adjustment task the precision of four observers performance declined smoothly as the number of presented patterns was increased. The result also supports the resource theory. The standard deviation for one item was 0.03 0.05 and as the number of items increased from 1 to 6 there was a 2 3 -fold linear increase in the amplitude threshold (0.06 0.11). These findings show that the performance in a visual working memory task is described better according to the theory of freely allocated resources and not to the traditional slot-model. In addition, the allocation of the resources depends on the properties of the individual observer and the visual working memory task.

Emerging bioenergy business at Finnish independent industrial sawmills

Finnish forest industry is in the middle of a radical change. Deepening recession and the falling demand of woodworking industry´s traditional products have forced also sawmilling industry to find new and more fertile solutions to improve their operational preconditions. In recent years, the role of bioenergy production has often been highlighted as a part of sawmills´ business repertoire. Sawmilling produces naturally a lot of by-products (e.g. bark, sawdust, chips) which could be exploited more effectively in energy production, and this would bring more incomes or maybe even create new business opportunities for sawmills. Production of bioenergy is also supported by government´s climate and energy policies favouring renewable energy sources, public financial subsidies, and soaring prices of fossil fuels. Also the decreasing production of domestic pulp and paper industry releases a fair amount of sawmills´ by-products for other uses. However, bioenergy production as a part of sawmills´ by-product utilization has been so far researched very little from a managerial point of view. The purpose of this study was to explore the relative significance of the main bioenergy-related processes, resources and factors at Finnish independent industrial sawmills including partnerships, cooperation, customers relationships and investments, and also the future perspectives of bioenergy business at these sawmills with the help of two resource-based approaches (resource-based view, natural-resource-based view). Data of the study comprised of secondary data (e.g. literature), and primary data which was attracted from interviews directed to sawmill managers (or equivalent persons in charge of decisions regarding bioenergy production at sawmill). While a literature review and the Delphi method with two questionnaires were utilized as the methods of the study. According to the results of the study, the most significant processes related to the value chain of bioenergy business are connected to raw material availability and procurement, and customer relationships management. In addition to raw material and services, the most significant resources included factory and machinery, personnel, collaboration, and geographic location. Long-term cooperation deals were clearly valued as the most significant form of collaboration, and especially in processes connected to raw material procurement. Study results also revealed that factors related to demand, subsidies and prices had highest importance in connection with sawmills´ future bioenergy business. However, majority of the respondents required that certain preconditions connected to the above-mentioned factors should be fulfilled before they will continue their bioenergy-related investments. Generally, the answers showed a wide divergence of opinions among the respondents which may refer to sawmills´ different emphases and expectations concerning bioenergy. In other words, bioenergy is still perceived as a quite novel and risky area of business at Finnish independent industrial sawmills. These results indicate that the massive expansion of bioenergy business at private sawmills in Finland is not a self-evident truth. The blocking barriers seem to be connected mainly to demand of bioenergy and money. Respondents´ answers disseminated a growing dissatisfaction towards the policies of authorities, which don´t treat equally sawmill-based bioenergy compared to other forms of bioenergy. This proposition was boiled down in a sawmill manager´s comment: “There is a lot of bioenergy available, if they just want to make use of it.” It seems that the positive effects of government´s policies favouring the renewables are not taking effect at private sawmills. However, as there anyway seems to be a lot of potential connected to emerging bioenergy business at Finnish independent industrial sawmills, there is also a clear need for more profound future studies over this topic.

Juoksuhaudoista yhteiskuntaan : Vuosien 1965-1975 sotilaallista maanpuolustusta ja puolustusvoimia koskevan joukkotiedotuksen diskursiivinen tarkastelu

The Finnish society developed rapidly in the 1960´s and 1970´s. This was result of international trends. Development of education, urbanization and wide organization of society increased discontent towards prevailing social structure and towards the power elite. Development of technology created possibility to present radical perspectives in mass media. This caused widely spread discussions dividing opinions. The purpose of this thesis was to complement research on national defence and the Finnish Defence Forces especially between years 1965 and 1975. The task of research was to clarify how changes in society and how the significance of this change was interpreted in public discussion about national defence and development of the Defence Forces. The most essential points for this thesis turned out to be discourses structured from public discussion. Main research material consisted of approximately 35000 news, editorials, articles and opinions presented in mass media supplemented by literature, committee reports and other archival sources. Frame of reference for this thesis is based on relativistic worldview. According to this, social reality is relative and there is no single truth. Environment has significant influence on the issue how knowledge and truth are formed. Data analysis was based on critical discourse. The key objective was to clarify the effects of broad changes in society using discursive methods. One essential goal was to form order of discourse using linguistic analysis and also connect discourses to wider sociocultural custom. On this thesis I came to the conclusion that on the review period there were five significant ensembles of discourse. They consisted of several discussions focused on different themes. The discourse of official security policy aimed to define national defence and the position of the Defence Forces as parts of foreign policy. Foreign policy is often perceived as the most significant part of security policy. Historical memory, geographical position of Finland and also the state contracts, changes in international warfare, tasks of the Defence Forces and increasing critic of national defence and the difference in thinking between generations formed the discourse of security policy. In the discourse of the liability to military service, the issue was about individual responsibility to society and national defence. Resisters and unarmed defence demands, encouraged by international examples were the themes. The discourse pointed out how mass media is used to influence and forced the Defence Forces to develop the practices in public information. The discourses of democracy and politics were closer to internal development of the Defence Forces to integrate more into society. The discourse of democracy focused in changing power relationships of the Defence Forces that were known as authoritarian. Issues like conscript and personnel union activity had lot of similarities to general social development. The discourse of politics presented how the Defence Forces were pushed towards parliamentary decision making. The personnel was granted the same rights as other population. Themes related to the discourse on the will to national defence were development of mental national defence, increasing education on national defence and creation of more open public information culture. According to discourses presented above I can state, that the position of the Defence Forces in society was changed between years 1965-1975. This change was advanced by the Defence Forces reformed attitude towards mass media and public information in general. Active participation in public information important became important instead of only answering topics. This positive development created an atmosphere, that was easier for the public to understand and create own pictures of the armed forces. Due to this, I can describe that the defenders and supporters of the armed forces were stuck in their trenches, until discussions presented in discourses and themes developed the Defence Forces to be better fitting part of society. Key words; society, national defence, Defence Forces, discourse, mass media, security policy, liability to military service, conscription, democracy