Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

Coastal environmental gradients – Key to reproduction habitat mapping of freshwater fish in the Baltic Sea

Habitat requirements of fish are most strict during the early life stages, and the quality and quantity of reproduction habitats lays the basis for fish production. A considerable number of fish species in the northern Baltic Sea reproduce in the shallow coastal areas, which are also the most heavily exploited parts of the brackish marine area. However, the coastal fish reproduction habitats in the northern Baltic Sea are poorly known. The studies presented in this thesis focused on the influence of environmental conditions on the distribution of coastal reproduction habitats of freshwater fish. They were conducted in vegetated littoral zone along an exposure and salinity gradient extending from the innermost bays to the outer archipelago on the south-western and southern coasts of Finland, in the northern Baltic Sea. Special emphasis was placed on reed-covered Phragmites australis shores, which form a dominant vegetation type in several coastal archipelago areas. The main aims of this research were to (1) develop and test new survey and mapping methods, (2) investigate the environmental requirements that govern the reproduction of freshwater fish in the coastal area and (3) survey, map and model the distribution of the reproduction habitats of pike (Esox lucius) and roach (Rutilus rutilus). The white plate and scoop method with a standardized sampling time and effort was demonstrated to be a functional method for sampling the early life stages of fish in dense vegetation and shallow water. Reed-covered shores were shown to form especially important reproduction habitats for several freshwater fish species, such as pike, roach, other cyprinids and burbot, in the northern Baltic Sea. The reproduction habitats of pike were limited to sheltered reed- and moss-covered shores of the inner and middle archipelago, where suitable zooplankton prey were available and the influence of the open sea was low. The reproduction habitats of roach were even more limited and roach reproduction was successful only in the very sheltered reed-covered shores of the innermost bay areas, where salinity remained low (< 4‰) during the spawning season due to freshwater inflow. After identifying the critical factors restricting the reproduction of pike and roach, the spatial distribution of their reproduction habitats was successfully mapped and modelled along the environmental gradients using only a few environmental predictor variables. Reproduction habitat maps are a valuable tool promoting the sustainable use and management of exploited coastal areas and helping to maintain the sustainability of fish populations. However, the large environmental gradients and the extensiveness of the archipelago zone in the northern Baltic Sea demand an especially high spatial resolution of the coastal predictor variables. Therefore, the current lack of accurate large-scale, high-resolution spatial data gathered at exactly the right time is a considerable limitation for predictive modelling of shallow coastal waters.

Ecological communities in variable environments : dynamics and diversity under coloured environmental stochasticity

While environmental variation is an ubiquitous phenomenon in the natural world which has for long been appreciated by the scientific community recent changes in global climatic conditions have begun to raise consciousness about the economical, political and sociological ramifications of global climate change. Climate warming has already resulted in documented changes in ecosystem functioning, with direct repercussions on ecosystem services. While predicting the influence of ecosystem changes on vital ecosystem services can be extremely difficult, knowledge of the organisation of ecological interactions within natural communities can help us better understand climate driven changes in ecosystems. The role of environmental variation as an agent mediating population extinctions is likely to become increasingly important in the future. In previous studies population extinction risk in stochastic environmental conditions has been tied to an interaction between population density dependence and the temporal autocorrelation of environmental fluctuations. When populations interact with each other, forming ecological communities, the response of such species assemblages to environmental stochasticity can depend, e.g., on trophic structure in the food web and the similarity in species-specific responses to environmental conditions. The results presented in this thesis indicate that variation in the correlation structure between species-specific environmental responses (environmental correlation) can have important qualitative and quantitative effects on community persistence and biomass stability in autocorrelated (coloured) environments. In addition, reddened environmental stochasticity and ecological drift processes (such as demographic stochasticity and dispersal limitation) have important implications for patterns in species relative abundances and community dynamics over time and space. Our understanding of patterns in biodiversity at local and global scale can be enhanced by considering the relevance of different drift processes for community organisation and dynamics. Although the results laid out in this thesis are based on mathematical simulation models, they can be valuable in planning effective empirical studies as well as in interpreting existing empirical results. Most of the metrics considered here are directly applicable to empirical data.

Environmental factors and uncertainty in fisheries management in the northern Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is a geologically young, large brackish water basin, and few of the species living there have fully adapted to its special conditions. Many of the species live on the edge of their distribution range in terms of one or more environmental variables such as salinity or temperature. Environmental fluctuations are know to cause fluctuations in populations abundance, and this effect is especially strong near the edges of the distribution range, where even small changes in an environmental variable can be critical to the success of a species. This thesis examines which environmental factors are the most important in relation to the success of various commercially exploited fish species in the northern Baltic Sea. It also examines the uncertainties related to fish stocks current and potential status as well as to their relationship with their environment. The aim is to quantify the uncertainties related to fisheries and environmental management, to find potential management strategies that can be used to reduce uncertainty in management results and to develop methodology related to uncertainty estimation in natural resources management. Bayesian statistical methods are utilized due to their ability to treat uncertainty explicitly in all parts of the statistical model. The results show that uncertainty about important parameters of even the most intensively studied fish species such as salmon (Salmo salar L.) and Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras L.) is large. On the other hand, management approaches that reduce uncertainty can be found. These include utilising information about ecological similarity of fish stocks and species, and using management variables that are directly related to stock parameters that can be measured easily and without extrapolations or assumptions.

Carabid beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae) as indicators of environmental change in Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar

Growing human populations and increasing exploitation of natural resources threaten nature all over the world. Tropical countries are especially vulnerable to human impact because of the high number of species, most of these endemic and still unknown. Madagascar is one of the centers of high biodiversity and renowned for its unique species. However, during the last centuries many endemic species have gone extinct and more are endangered. Because of high natural values, Madagascar is one of the global conservation priorities. The establishment of Ranomafana National Park (RNP) was intended to preserve the unique nature of Madagascar. Containing several endemic and threatened species, Ranomafana has been selected as one of UNESCO’s World Natural Heritage sites. However, due to strong human pressures the region immediately surroundings the protected area has severely degraded. Aims of this thesis were to inventory carabid fauna in RNP and evaluate their use as indicators of the environmental change. Carabid beetles were collected from protected area (secondary and primary forests) and from its degraded surrounding area. Collecting was mostly conducted by hand during years 2000-2005. Species compositions between the protected area and its surroundings were compared, and species habitat preferences and seasonal variations were studied. In total, 4498 individuals representing 127 carabid species (of which 38 are new species) were collected. Species compositions within and outside of the protected area were markedly different. Most of the species preferred forest as their primary habitat and were mainly collected from trees and bushes. Their value as indicators is based on their different habitat requirements and sensitivity to environmental variables. Some of the species were found only in the protected forest, some occupied also the degraded forests and some preferred open areas. Carabid fauna is very species rich in Ranomafana and there are still many species to be found. Most of the species are arboreal and probably cannot survive in the deforested areas outside the park. This is very likely also the case for other species. Establishment and continued protection of RNP is probably the only way to conserve this globally important area. However, new occupations and land use methods are urgently needed by the local people for improving their own lives while maintaining the forest intact.

Microbiological, environmental and proteolytic aspects in chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyposis

Chronic rhinosinusitis is one of the most common chronic respiratory tract diseases affecting up to 15% of the adult population in the Western world. It may be perpetuated by factors predisposing to sinus ostial obstruction together with inflammatory changes in the sinus mucosa. Chronic rhinosinusitis is associated with asthma, and it may represent the same disease process. Chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyposis (CRSwNP) and asthma share also the characteristic inflammatory features and histopathologic feature of airway remodelling. Remodelling is considered as a key event in the pathogenesis of asthma. It is controlled by a delicate balance between the matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their regulators. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the microbiological findings, inflammatory features and MMP and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases-1 (TIMP-1) expression in CRSwNP. The results were related to the patient history, exposure to moisture and clinical outcome in order to find out possible explanations for the etiology and chronicity of CRSwNP. Bacterial culture results were similar in patients and in controls and do not explain the chronic course of CRSwNP. The presence of fungi seems to be more common in CRSwNP than chronic rhinosinusitis in general, and they should be actively searched for using microbiological as well as histological methods. Typical outdoor fungal species were found in nasal lavage samples taken from controls in the autumn but not in the winter, reflecting environmental exposure. Exposure to moisture was reported by 46% of the CRSwNP patients, which is in accordance to the Finnish general population. Exposed patients did not differ significantly from non-exposed subjects with regards to microbiological findings, tissue eosinophilia and clinical outcome. Significantly elevated levels of collagenase-2 (MMP-8) and interleukin (IL)-8 but not tumour necrosis factor-α were found in CRSwNP patients. In particular, the activation of mesenchymal-type MMP-8 but not polymorphonuclear-type MMP-8 was associated with elevated IL-8 levels. IL-8 and MMP-8 may form an inductive cytokine-proteinase cascade in CRSwNP pathogenesis and provide a target for novel therapies and a diagnostic tool for monitoring CRSwNP treatment. The proteolytic spectrum is different in eosinophilic and non-eosinophilic CRSwNP with the up-regulation of MMP-8 and MMP-9 in non-eosinophilic CRSwNP, suggesting different pathophysiology in these subgroups. The lack of MMP up-regulation was associated with a poor prognostic factor and worse clinical outcome, representing a possible synergic anti-inflammatory function of MMP-8 and MMP-9 in CRSwNP. This study provides new information about possible immunologic mechanisms in the pathogenesis of CRSwNP. The recently discovered anti-inflammatory/ defensive properties of MMP-8 and MMP-9 in animal models are reported for the first time in a clinical setting in human inflammatory diseases.

From environmental concerns towards sustainable food provisioning. : Material flow and food consumption scenario studies on sustainability of agri-food systems

Agriculture is an economic activity that heavily relies on the availability of natural resources. Through its role in food production agriculture is a major factor affecting public welfare and health, and its indirect contribution to gross domestic product and employment is significant. Agriculture also contributes to numerous ecosystem services through management of rural areas. However, the environmental impact of agriculture is considerable and reaches far beyond the agroecosystems. The questions related to farming for food production are, thus, manifold and of great public concern. Improving environmental performance of agriculture and sustainability of food production, sustainabilizing food production, calls for application of wide range of expertise knowledge. This study falls within the field of agro-ecology, with interphases to food systems and sustainability research and exploits the methods typical of industrial ecology. The research in these fields extends from multidisciplinary to interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary, a holistic approach being the key tenet. The methods of industrial ecology have been applied extensively to explore the interaction between human economic activity and resource use. Specifically, the material flow approach (MFA) has established its position through application of systematic environmental and economic accounting statistics. However, very few studies have applied MFA specifically to agriculture. The MFA approach was used in this thesis in such a context in Finland. The focus of this study is the ecological sustainability of primary production. The aim was to explore the possibilities of assessing ecological sustainability of agriculture by using two different approaches. In the first approach the MFA-methods from industrial ecology were applied to agriculture, whereas the other is based on the food consumption scenarios. The two approaches were used in order to capture some of the impacts of dietary changes and of changes in production mode on the environment. The methods were applied at levels ranging from national to sector and local levels. Through the supply-demand approach, the viewpoint changed between that of food production to that of food consumption. The main data sources were official statistics complemented with published research results and expertise appraisals. MFA approach was used to define the system boundaries, to quantify the material flows and to construct eco-efficiency indicators for agriculture. The results were further elaborated for an input-output model that was used to analyse the food flux in Finland and to determine its relationship to the economy-wide physical and monetary flows. The methods based on food consumption scenarios were applied at regional and local level for assessing feasibility and environmental impacts of relocalising food production. The approach was also used for quantification and source allocation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of primary production. GHG assessment provided, thus, a means of crosschecking the results obtained by using the two different approaches. MFA data as such or expressed as eco-efficiency indicators, are useful in describing the overall development. However, the data are not sufficiently detailed for identifying the hot spots of environmental sustainability. Eco-efficiency indicators should not be bluntly used in environmental assessment: the carrying capacity of the nature, the potential exhaustion of non-renewable natural resources and the possible rebound effect need also to be accounted for when striving towards improved eco-efficiency. The input-output model is suitable for nationwide economy analyses and it shows the distribution of monetary and material flows among the various sectors. Environmental impact can be captured only at a very general level in terms of total material requirement, gaseous emissions, energy consumption and agricultural land use. Improving environmental performance of food production requires more detailed and more local information. The approach based on food consumption scenarios can be applied at regional or local scales. Based on various diet options the method accounts for the feasibility of re-localising food production and environmental impacts of such re-localisation in terms of nutrient balances, gaseous emissions, agricultural energy consumption, agricultural land use and diversity of crop cultivation. The approach is applicable anywhere, but the calculation parameters need to be adjusted so as to comply with the specific circumstances. The food consumption scenario approach, thus, pays attention to the variability of production circumstances, and may provide some environmental information that is locally relevant. The approaches based on the input-output model and on food consumption scenarios represent small steps towards more holistic systemic thinking. However, neither one alone nor the two together provide sufficient information for sustainabilizing food production. Environmental performance of food production should be assessed together with the other criteria of sustainable food provisioning. This requires evaluation and integration of research results from many different disciplines in the context of a specified geographic area. Foodshed area that comprises both the rural hinterlands of food production and the population centres of food consumption is suggested to represent a suitable areal extent for such research. Finding a balance between the various aspects of sustainability is a matter of optimal trade-off. The balance cannot be universally determined, but the assessment methods and the actual measures depend on what the bottlenecks of sustainability are in the area concerned. These have to be agreed upon among the actors of the area

Agricultural expansion and climate change in the Taita Hills, Kenya: an assessment of potential environmental impacts

The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved in this region. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This dissertation tackles essential aspects for understanding the ongoing agricultural activities in the Taita Hills and their potential environmental consequences in the future. Initially, alternative methods were designed to improve our understanding of the ongoing agricultural activities. Namely, methods for agricultural survey planning and to estimate evapotranspiration were evaluated, taking into account a number of limitations regarding data and resources availability. Next, this dissertation evaluates how upcoming agricultural expansion, together with climate change, will affect the natural resources in the Taita Hills up to the year 2030. The driving forces of agricultural expansion in the region were identified as aiming to delineate future landscape scenarios and evaluate potential impacts from the soil and water conservation point of view. In order to investigate these issues and answer the research questions, this dissertation combined state of the art modelling tools with renowned statistical methods. The results indicate that, if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Although the simulated land use changes will certainly increase soil erosion figures, new croplands are likely to come up predominantly in the lowlands, which comprise areas with lower soil erosion potential. By 2030, rainfall erosivity is likely to increase during April and November due to climate change. Finally, this thesis addressed the potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR), which is considered another major issue in the context of the relations between land use and climate. Although the simulations indicate that climate change will likely increase annual volumes of rainfall during the following decades, IWR will continue to increase due to agricultural expansion. By 2030, new cropland areas may cause an increase of approximately 40% in the annual volume of water necessary for irrigation.

Origins of the sex differences in handedness and mental rotation ability : genetic, environmental and hormonal effects

In humans, well-replicated and robust sex differences in cognitive functions exist for handedness and mental rotation ability. A common characteristic in human cognitive functions is the lateralization of language functions. Handedness is a common measure of laterality and is related to language lateralization. The prevalence of left-handedness is higher in males than in females, the male to female ratio being about 1.2. Among cognitive abilities, the largest sex difference is evident in the Vandenberg and Kuse Mental Rotation Test (MRT), which requires the ability to rotate objects in mental space. On average, males achieve scores one standard deviation higher than females in the MRT. The present thesis investigated the origins of the sex differences in laterality and spatial ability as represented by handedness and mental rotation ability, respectively. Two population-based Finnish twin cohorts were utilized in this study. Handedness was studied in 25 810 twins and 4068 singletons born before 1958 from the Older Finnish Twin Cohort, and in 4736 twins born in 1983-87 from the FinnTwin12. MRT was studied in a sub-sample of 804 young adult participants from the FinnTwin12 sample. The main findings of this study were: 1) the prevalence of left-handedness was higher among males than among females in both singletons and in twins; 2) males had significantly higher scores than females in MRT; 3) about one quarter of the variance in handedness and about half of the variance in MRT was explained by genetic effects, whereas the remainder of the variance in these traits was explained by environmental effects unique to each individual. The magnitude of the genetic effects was similar in both sexes; 4) left-handedness was significantly less common in female co-twins of a male than in female co-twins of a female, and female co-twins of a male scored significantly higher than did female co-twins of a female in the Mental Rotation Test. This dissertation discusses whether these differences between females from opposite- and same-sex twin pairs are due to the prenatal transfer of testosterone from the male fetus in females with male co-twins or whether they arise from postnatal socialization effects.

Governance theory as a framework for empirical research : a case study on local environmental policy-making in Helsinki, Finland

Governance has been one of the most popular buzzwords in recent political science. As with any term shared by numerous fields of research, as well as everyday language, governance is encumbered by a jungle of definitions and applications. This work elaborates on the concept of network governance. Network governance refers to complex policy-making situations, where a variety of public and private actors collaborate in order to produce and define policy. Governance is processes of autonomous, self-organizing networks of organizations exchanging information and deliberating. Network governance is a theoretical concept that corresponds to an empirical phenomenon. Often, this phenomenon is used to descirbe a historical development: governance is often used to describe changes in political processes of Western societies since the 1980s. In this work, empirical governance networks are used as an organizing framework, and the concepts of autonomy, self-organization and network structure are developed as tools for empirical analysis of any complex decision-making process. This work develops this framework and explores the governance networks in the case of environmental policy-making in the City of Helsinki, Finland. The crafting of a local ecological sustainability programme required support and knowledge from all sectors of administration, a number of entrepreneurs and companies and the inhabitants of Helsinki. The policy process relied explicitly on networking, with public and private actors collaborating to design policy instruments. Communication between individual organizations led to the development of network structures and patterns. This research analyses these patterns and their effects on policy choice, by applying the methods of social network analysis. A variety of social network analysis methods are used to uncover different features of the networked process. Links between individual network positions, network subgroup structures and macro-level network patterns are compared to the types of organizations involved and final policy instruments chosen. By using governance concepts to depict a policy process, the work aims to assess whether they contribute to models of policy-making. The conclusion is that the governance literature sheds light on events that would otherwise go unnoticed, or whose conceptualization would remain atheoretical. The framework of network governance should be in the toolkit of the policy analyst.

Corporate Environmental Responsibility in Demand Networks (summary section only)

Research on corporate responsibility has traditionally focused on the responsibilities of companies within their corporate boundaries only. Yet this view is challenged today as more and more companies face the situation in which the environmental and social performance of their suppliers, distributors, industry or other associated partners impacts on their sales performance and brand equity. Simultaneously, policy-makers have taken up the discussion on corporate responsibility from the perspective of globalisation, in particular of global supply chains. The category of selecting and evaluating suppliers has also entered the field of environmental reporting. Companies thus need to tackle their responsibility in collaboration with different partners. The aim of the thesis is to further the understanding of collaboration and corporate environmental responsibility beyond corporate boundaries. Drawing on the fields of supply chain management and industrial ecology, the thesis sets out to investigate inter-firm collaboration on three different levels, between the company and its stakeholders, in the supply chain, and in the demand network of a company. The thesis is comprised of four papers: Paper A discusses the use of different research approaches in logistics and supply chain management. Paper B introduces the study on collaboration and corporate environmental responsibility from a focal company perspective, looking at the collaboration of companies with their stakeholders, and the salience of these stakeholders. Paper C widens this perspective to an analysis on the supply chain level. The focus here is not only beyond corporate boundaries, but also beyond direct supplier and customer interfaces in the supply chain. Paper D then extends the analysis to the demand network level, taking into account the input-output, competitive and regulatory environments, in which a company operates. The results of the study broaden the view of corporate responsibility. By applying this broader view, different types of inter-firm collaboration can be highlighted. Results also show how environmental demand is extended in the supply chain regardless of the industry background of the company.