Bayesian Inference for Retrospective Population Genetics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Genetics, the science of heredity and variation in living organisms, has a central role in medicine, in breeding crops and livestock, and in studying fundamental topics of biological sciences such as evolution and cell functioning. Currently the field of genetics is under a rapid development because of the recent advances in technologies by which molecular data can be obtained from living organisms. In order that most information from such data can be extracted, the analyses need to be carried out using statistical models that are tailored to take account of the particular genetic processes. In this thesis we formulate and analyze Bayesian models for genetic marker data of contemporary individuals. The major focus is on the modeling of the unobserved recent ancestry of the sampled individuals (say, for tens of generations or so), which is carried out by using explicit probabilistic reconstructions of the pedigree structures accompanied by the gene flows at the marker loci. For such a recent history, the recombination process is the major genetic force that shapes the genomes of the individuals, and it is included in the model by assuming that the recombination fractions between the adjacent markers are known. The posterior distribution of the unobserved history of the individuals is studied conditionally on the observed marker data by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The example analyses consider estimation of the population structure, relatedness structure (both at the level of whole genomes as well as at each marker separately), and haplotype configurations. For situations where the pedigree structure is partially known, an algorithm to create an initial state for the MCMC algorithm is given. Furthermore, the thesis includes an extension of the model for the recent genetic history to situations where also a quantitative phenotype has been measured from the contemporary individuals. In that case the goal is to identify positions on the genome that affect the observed phenotypic values. This task is carried out within the Bayesian framework, where the number and the relative effects of the quantitative trait loci are treated as random variables whose posterior distribution is studied conditionally on the observed genetic and phenotypic data. In addition, the thesis contains an extension of a widely-used haplotyping method, the PHASE algorithm, to settings where genetic material from several individuals has been pooled together, and the allele frequencies of each pool are determined in a single genotyping.

Genetics of T cell co-stimulatory receptors -CD28, CTLA4, ICOS and PDCD1 in immunity and transplantation

Co-stimulatory signals are essential for the activation of naïve T cells and productive immune response. Naïve T cells receive first, antigen-specific signal through T cell receptor. Co-stimulatory receptors provide the second signal which can be either activating or inhibitory. The balance between signals determines the outcome of an immune response. CD28 is crucial for T cell activation; whereas cytotoxic T lymphocyte associated antigen 4 (CTLA4) mediates critical inhibitory signal. Inducible co-stimulator (ICOS) augments cytokine expression and plays role in immunoglobulin class switching. Programmed cell death 1 (PDCD1) acts as negative regulator of T cell proliferation and cytokine responses. The co-stimulatory receptor pathways are potentially involved in self-tolerance and thus, they provide a promising therapeutic strategy for autoimmune diseases and transplantation. The genes encoding CD28, CTLA4 and ICOS are located adjacently in the chromosome region 2q33. The PDCD1 gene maps further, to the region 2q37. CTLA4 and PDCD1 are associated with the risk of a few autoimmune diseases. There is strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) on the 2q33 region; the whole gene of CD28 exists in its own LD block but CTLA4 and the 5' part of ICOS are within a same LD block. The 3' part of ICOS and PDCD1 are in their own separate LD blocks. Extended haplotypes covering the 2q33 region can be identified. This study focuses on immune related conditions like coeliac disease (CD) which is a chronic inflammatory disease with autoimmune features. Immunoglobulin A deficiency (IgAD) belongs to the group of primary antibody deficiencies characterised by reduced levels of immunoglobulins. IgAD co-occurs often with coeliac disease. Renal transplantation is needed in the end stage kidney diseases. Transplantation causes strong immune response which is tried to suppress with drugs. All these conditions are multifactorial with complex genetic background and multiple environmental factors affecting the outcome. We have screened ICOS for polymorphisms by sequencing the exon regions. We detected 11 new variants and determined their frequencies in Finnish population. We have measured linkage disequilibrium on the 2q33 region in Finnish as well as other European populations and observed conserved haplotypes. We analysed genetic association and linkage of the co-stimulatory receptor gene region aiming to study if it is a common risk locus for immune diseases. The 2q33 region was replicated to be linked to coeliac disease in Finnish population and CTLA4-ICOS haplotypes were found to be associated with CD and IgAD being the first non-HLA risk locus common for CD and immunodeficiencies. We also showed association between ICOS and the outcome of kidney transplantation. Our results suggest new evidence for CTLA4-ICOS gene region to be involved in susceptibility of coeliac disease. The earlier published contradictory association results can be explained by involvement of both CTLA4 and ICOS in disease susceptibility. The pattern of variants acting together rather than a single polymorphism may confer the disease risk. These genes may predispose also to immunodeficiencies as well as decreased graft survival and delayed graft function. Consequently, the present study indicates that like the well established HLA locus, the co-stimulatory receptor genes predispose to variety of immune disorders.

Phylogeography and Population Genetics of the Moor frog (Rana arvalis Nilsson) in Northern Europe

The ongoing climate change along with increasing levels of pollutants, diseases, habitat loss and fragmentation constitute global threats to the persistence of many populations, species and ecosystems. However, for the long-term persistence of local populations, one of the biggest threats is the intrinsic loss of genetic variation. In order to adapt to changes in the environment, organisms must have a sufficient supply of heritable variation in traits important for their fitness. With a loss of genetic variation, the risk of extinction will increase. For conservational practices, one should therefore understand the processes that shape the genetic population structure and also the broader (historical) phylogenetic patterning of the species in focus. In this thesis, microsatellite markers were applied to study genetic diversity and population differentiation of the protected moor frog (Rana arvalis) in Fennoscandia from both historical (evolutionary) and applied (conservation) perspectives. The results demonstrate that R. arvalis populations are highly structured over rather short geographic distances. Moreover, the results suggest that R. arvalis recolonized Fennoscandia from two directions after the last ice age. This has had implications for the genetic structuring and population differentiation, especially in the northernmost parts where the two lineages have met. Compared to more southern populations, the genetic variation decreases and the interpopulation differentiation increases dramatically towards north. This could be an outcome of serial population bottlenecking along the recolonization route. Also, current isolation and small population sizes increase the effect of drift, thus reinforcing the observed pattern. The same pattern can also be seen in island populations. However, though R. arvalis on the island of Gotland has lost most of its neutral genetic variability, our results indicate that the levels of additive genetic variation have remained high. This conforms to the conjecture that though neutral markers are widely used in conservation purposes, they may be quite uninformative about the levels of genetic variation in ecologically important traits. Finally, the evolutionary impact of the typical amphibian mating behaviour on genetic diversity was investigated. Given the short time available for larval development, it is important that mating takes place as early as possible. The genetic data and earlier capture-recapture data suggest that R. arvalis gather at mating grounds they are familiar with. However, by forming leks in random to relatedness, and having multiple paternities in single clutches, the risk of inbreeding may be minimized in this otherwise highly philopatric species.

Molecular genetics of Meckel syndrome : Ciliary genes are defective in MKS

Meckel syndrome (MKS, MIM 249000) is a severe developmental disorder that leads to death already in utero or shortly after birth. MKS diagnosis can be established by a careful ultrasound examination already at 11-14 weeks of gestation. The main features of MKS are occipital meningoencephalocele, cystic kidney dysplasia and fibrotic changes of the liver. In addition, polydactyly is frequently reported in the cases. The aim of the study was to characterize the molecular and functional defects in MKS. In this study we were able to identify two major MKS mutations in Finnish population, which cover over 90% of the cases. The first mutation is a 29 bp intronic deletion in the MKS1 gene (c.1483-7_35del) that is found in 70% of the families and the second is a C>T substitution in the coding region of CC2D2A (c.1762C>T), that is found in 20% of the MKS families. Both of these mutations result in abnormal splicing. The discovery of the disease genes has revealed that MKS is caused by primary cilia dysfunction. MKS1 gene has a conserved B9 domain, and it is found in the predicted ciliary proteome. CC2D2A protein is also found in the predicted ciliary proteome and it has a Ca2+ binding domain. The number of genes behind MKS has increased rapidly in the past years and to date, mutations have been identified in five genes (MKS1, TMEM67/MKS3, CEP290/MKS4, RPGRIP1L/MKS5 and CC2D2A/MKS6). Identification of the disease genes mutations has also revealed that MKS is an allelic disorder with other syndromes with overlapping phenotypes. Disorders that are caused by primary cilia dysfunction are collectively known as ciliopathies. Sequence analysis of all the known MKS genes in Finnish and non-Finnish families available to us, where the mutation was still unknown, revealed mutations in 14 out of the 30 families included in the study. When we collected all the reported mutations in MKS genes in different syndromes we could see that there was clearly a genotype-syndrome correlation between the mutations and the syndromes, since the same pair of mutations has never been reported in different syndromes. The basic molecular events behind MKS will not only give us information of this syndrome, but also significant novel information on early fetal development in general.

Molecular genetics of tooth agenesis

Congenital missing of teeth, tooth agenesis or hypodontia, is one of the most common developmental anomalies in man. The common forms in which one or a few teeth are absent, may cause occlusal or cosmetic harm, while severe forms which are relatively rare always require clinical attention to support and maintain the dental function. Observation of tooth agenesis is also important for diagnosis of malformation syndromes. Some external factors may cause developmental defects and agenesis in dentition. However, the role of inheritance in the etiology of tooth agenesis is well established by twin and family studies. Studies on familial tooth agenesis as well as mouse null mutants have also identified several genetic factors. However, these explain syndromic or rare dominant forms of tooth agenesis, whereas the genes and defects responsible for the majority of cases of tooth agenesis, especially the common and less severe forms, are largely unknown. In this study it was shown, that a dominant nonsense mutation in PAX9 was responsible for severe tooth agenesis (oligodontia) in a Finnish family. In a study of tooth agenesis associated with Wolf-Hirschhorn syndrome, it was shown that severe tooth agenesis was present if the causative deletion in 4p spanned the MSX1 locus. It was concluded that severe tooth agenesis was caused by haploinsufficiency of these transcription factors. A summary of the phenotypes associated with known defects in MSX1 and PAX9 showed that, despite similarities, they were significantly different, suggesting that the genes, in addition to known interactions, also have independent roles during the development of human dentition. The original aim of this work was to identify gene defects that underlie the common incisor and premolar hypodontia. After excluding several candidate genes, a genome-wide search was conducted in seven Finnish families in which this phenotype was inherited in an autosomal dominant manner. A promising locus for second premolar agenesis was identified in chromosome 18 in one family and this finding was supported by results from other families. The results also implied the existence of other loci both for second premolar agenesis and for incisor agenesis. On the other hand the results did not lend support for comprehensive involvement of the most obvious candidate genes in the etiology of incisor and premolar hypodontia. Rather, they suggest remarkable genetic heterogeneity of tooth agenesis. The available evidence suggests that quantitative defects during tooth development predispose to a failure to overcome a developmental threshold and to agenesis. The results of the study increase the understanding of the etiology and heredity of tooth agenesis. Further studies may lead to identification of novel genes that affect the development of teeth.

Mu in vitro Transposition Technology in Functional Genetics and Genomics: Applications on Mouse and Bacteriophages

Transposons are mobile elements of genetic material that are able to move in the genomes of their host organisms using a special form of recombination called transposition. Bacteriophage Mu was the first transposon for which a cell-free in vitro transposition reaction was developed. Subsequently, the reaction has been refined and the minimal Mu in vitro reaction is useful in the generation of comprehensive libraries of mutant DNA molecules that can be used in a variety of applications. To date, the functional genetics applications of Mu in vitro technology have been subjected to either plasmids or genomic regions and entire genomes of viruses cloned on specific vectors. This study expands the use of Mu in vitro transposition in functional genetics and genomics by describing novel methods applicable to the targeted transgenesis of mouse and the whole-genome analysis of bacteriophages. The methods described here are rapid, efficient, and easily applicable to a wide variety of organisms, demonstrating the potential of the Mu transposition technology in the functional analysis of genes and genomes. First, an easy-to-use, rapid strategy to generate construct for the targeted mutagenesis of mouse genes was developed. To test the strategy, a gene encoding a neuronal K+/Cl- cotransporter was mutagenised. After a highly efficient transpositional mutagenesis, the gene fragments mutagenised were cloned into a vector backbone and transferred into bacterial cells. These constructs were screened with PCR using an effective 3D matrix system. In addition to traditional knock-out constructs, the method developed yields hypomorphic alleles that lead into reduced expression of the target gene in transgenic mice and have since been used in a follow-up study. Moreover, a scheme is devised to rapidly produce conditional alleles from the constructs produced. Next, an efficient strategy for the whole-genome analysis of bacteriophages was developed based on the transpositional mutagenesis of uncloned, infective virus genomes and their subsequent transfer into susceptible host cells. Mutant viruses able to produce viable progeny were collected and their transposon integration sites determined to map genomic regions nonessential to the viral life cycle. This method, applied here to three very different bacteriophages, PRD1, ΦYeO3 12, and PM2, does not require the target genome to be cloned and is directly applicable to all DNA and RNA viruses that have infective genomes. The method developed yielded valuable novel information on the three bacteriophages studied and whole-genome data can be complemented with concomitant studies on individual genes. Moreover, end-modified transposons constructed for this study can be used to manipulate genomes devoid of suitable restriction sites.

Polymorphic low penetrance genes and breast cancer : The role of genes involved in metabolism of xenobiotics, estrogens and reactive oxygen species

Various endogenous and exogenous factors have been reported to increase the risk of breast cancer. Many of those are related to prolonged lifetime exposure to estrogens. Furthermore, a positive family history of breast cancer and certain benign breast diseases are known to increase the risk of breast cancer. The role of lifestyle factors, such as use of alcohol and smoking has been an area of intensive study. Alcohol has been found to increase the risk of breast cancer, whereas the role of smoking has remained obscure. A multitude of enzymes are involved in the metabolism of estrogens and xenobiotics including the carcinogens found in tobacco smoke. Many of the metabolic enzymes exhibit genetic polymorphisms that can lead to inter-individual differences in their abilities to modify hazardous substrates. Therefore, in presence of a given chemical exposure, one subgroup of women may be more susceptible to breast carcinogenesis, since they carry unfavourable forms of the polymorphic genes involved in the metabolism of the chemical. In this work, polymorphic genes encoding for cytochrome P450 (CYP) 1A1 and 1B1, N-acetyl transferase 2 (NAT2), sulfotransferase 1A1 (SULT1A1), manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD) and vitamin D receptor (VDR) were investigated in relation to breast cancer susceptibility in a Finnish population. CYP1A1, CYP1B1 and SULT1A1 are involved in the metabolism of both estrogens and xenobiotics, whereas NAT2 is involved only in the latter. MnSOD is an antioxidant enzyme protecting cells from oxidative damage. VDR, in turn, mediates the effects of the active form of vitamin D (1,25(OH)2D3, calcitriol) on maintenance of calcium homeostasis and it has anti-proliferative effects in many cancer cells. A 1.3-fold (95% CIs 1.01-1.73) increased risk of breast cancer was seen among women who carried the NAT2 slow acetylator genotype and a 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.1-2.0) risk was found in women with a MnSOD variant A allele containing genotypes compared to women with the NAT2 rapid acetylator genotype or to those with the MnSOD VV genotype, respectively. Instead, women with the VDR a allele containing genotypes were found to be at a decreased risk for breast cancer (OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.54-0.98) compared to women with the AA genotype. No significant overall associations were found between SULT1A1 or CYP genotypes and breast cancer risk, whereas a combination of the CYP1B1 432Val allele containing genotypes with the NAT2 slow acetylator genotypes posed a 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.03-2.24) increased risk. Moreover, NAT2 slow acetylator genotype was found to be confined to women with an advanced stage of breast cancer (stages III and IV). Further evidence for the association of xenobiotic metabolising genes with breast cancer risk was found when active smoking was taken into account. Women who smoked less than 10 cigarettes/day and carried at least one CYP1B1 432Val variant allele, were at 3.1-fold (95% CI 1.32-7.12) risk of breast cancer compared to women who smoked the same amount but did not carry the variant allele. Furthermore, the risk was significantly increased with increasing number of the CYP1B1 432Val alleles (p for trend 0.005). In addition, women who smoked less than 5 pack-years and carried the NAT2 slow acetylator genotype were at a 2.6-fold (95% CI 1.01-6.48) increased risk of breast cancer compared to women who smoked the same amount but carried the NAT2 rapid acetylator genotype. Furthermore, the combination of the CYP1B1 432Val allele and the NAT2 slow acetylator genotype increased the risk of breast cancer by 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.11-5.45) among ever smokers. Instead, the MnSOD A allele was found to be a risk factor among postmenopausal long-term smokers (>15 years of smoking) (OR 5.1; 95% CI 1.4-18.4) or among postmenopausal women who had smoked more than 10 cigarettes/day (OR 5.5; 95% CI 1.3-23.4) compared to women who had similar smoking habits but carried the MnSOD V/V genotype. Similarly, within subgroups of postmenopausal women who were using oral contraceptives, hormone replacement therapy or alcohol, women carrying the MnSOD A allele genotypes seemed to be at increased risk of breast cancer compared to women with the MnSOD V/V genotype. A positive family history of breast cancer and high parity were shown to be inversely associated with breast cancer risk among women carrying the VDR ApaI a allele or among premenopausal women carrying the SULT1A1*2 allele, respectively.

Evolutionary Genetics in the WIld : from Populations to Individuals

Predicting evolutionary outcomes and reconstructing past evolutionary transitions are among the main goals of evolutionary biology. Ultimately, understanding the mechanisms of evolutionary change will also provide answers to the timely question of whether and how organisms will adapt to changing environmental conditions. In this thesis, I have investigated the relative roles of natural selection, random genetic drift and genetic correlations in the evolution of complex traits at different levels of organisation from populations to individuals. I have shown that natural selection has been the driving force behind body shape divergence of marine and freshwater threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) populations, while genetic drift may have played a significant role in the more fine scale divergence among isolated freshwater populations. These results are concurrent with the patterns that have emerged in the published studies comparing the relative importance of natural selection and genetic drift as explanations for population divergence in different traits and taxa. I have also shown that body shape and armour divergence among threespine stickleback populations is likely to be biased by the patterns of genetic variation and covariation. Body shape and armour variation along the most likely direction of evolution the direction of maximum genetic variance reflects the general patterns of variation observed wild populations across the distribution range of the threespine stickleback. Conversely, it appears that genetic correlations between the sexes have not imposed significant constraints on the evolution of sexual dimorphism in threespine stickleback body shape and armour. I have demonstrated that the patterns of evolution seen in the wild can be experimentally recreated to tease out the effects of different selection agents in detail. In addition, I have shown how important it is to take into account the correlative nature of traits, when making interpretations about the effects of natural selection on individual traits. Overall, this thesis provides a demonstration of how considering the relative roles of different mechanism of evolutionary change at different levels of organisation can aid in an emergence of a comprehensive picture of how adaptive divergence in wild populations occurs.

Behavioural and physiological responses to predators of captive-bred Arctic charr: significance of genetics, learning and ontogeny

Predation forms one of the main selective forces in nature and in a vast number of prey species the behavioural responses form the main way to avoid predation. World wide numerous captive breeding programs are used to produce fish and other animal species for conservational reintroductions. However, rearing animals in the absence of predators in captivity has been shown to weaken their predator avoidance skills and lead to behavioural divergence between wild and captive-bred populations. In my thesis I studied the effects of predator odour exposures on antipredator behavioural and physiological responses of captive reared Saimaa Arctic charr. This charr population is the most endangered fish population in Finland and a sample of the remaining population has been taken to captive breeding and used for an extensive reintroduction program. Lowered responsiveness to predators is probably one of the major reasons for the poor survival probability of the charr after release into the wild. The main aims of my thesis were to explore the reasons for behavioural phenotypic variation in this charr population and whether naïve charr young could be trained to recognise their natural predators. The predator species in my thesis were burbot (Lota lota) and pikeperch (Sander lucioperca). In my thesis I showed that the captive-bred charr responded to chemical cues from burbot and pikeperch, but the magnitude of responses was linked to the predator species. The burbot odour increased the spatial odour avoidance of the charr young. On the other hand, in the pikeperch treatment charr reduced their relative swimming activity and tended to show more freezing behaviour relative to the burbot treatment. It seems evident that these different responses are related to the different hunting tactics of predator species. Furthermore, I detected wide between-family differences in antipredator responsiveness (i.e. inherited variation in antipredator behaviours) in this captive stock. Detected differences were greater in the response towards burbot than towards pikeperch. These results, in addition to predator-specific antipredator responses, suggest that there is a clear inherited component in antipredator responsiveness in Saimaa charr population and that the detected inherited differences could explain a part of the behavioural phenotypic variation in this population. In my thesis I also found out that both social learning and direct exposure to live predators enhance the antipredator responsiveness of charr young. In addition, I obtained indications that predator odour exposures (i.e. life-skills training) in alevin and fry stages can fine-tune the innate antipredator responsiveness of charr. Thus, all these methods have the potential to enhance the innate antipredator responsiveness of naïve charr young, possibly also improving the post-release survival of these trained individuals in the wild. However, the next logical phase would be to carry out large scale survival studies in the wild to test this hypothesis. Finally, the results of my thesis emphasize that possible long-term life-skills training methods should take into account not only the behavioural but also the physiological effects of training.

The Emerging Phenotype: Ecological Genetics of Color, Form and Sex in the Common Frog

One of the main aims of evolutionary biology is to explain why organisms vary phenotypically as they do. Proximately, this variation arises from genetic differences and from environmental influences, the latter of which is referred to as phenotypic plasticity. Phenotypic plasticity is thus a central concept in evolutionary biology, and understanding its relative importance in causing the phenotypic variation and differentiation is important, for instance in anticipating the consequences of human induced environmental changes. The aim of this thesis was to study geographic variation and local adaptation, as well as sex ratios and environmental sex reversal, in the common frog (Rana temporaria). These themes cover three different aspects of phenotypic plasticity, which emerges as the central concept for the thesis. The first two chapters address geographic variation and local adaptation in two potentially thermally adaptive traits, namely the degree of melanism and the relative leg length. The results show that although there is an increasing latitudinal trend in the degree of melanism in wild populations across Scandinavian Peninsula, this cline has no direct genetic basis and is thus environmentally induced. The second chapter demonstrates that although there is no linear, latitudinally ordered phenotypic trend in relative leg length that would be expected under Allen s rule an ecogeographical rule linking extremity length to climatic conditions there seems to be such a trend at the genetic level, hidden under environmental effects. The first two chapters thus view phenotypic plasticity through its ecological role and evolution, and demonstrate that it can both give rise to phenotypic variation and hide evolutionary patterns in studies that focus solely on phenotypes. The last three chapters relate to phenotypic plasticity through its ecological and evolutionary role in sex determination, and consequent effects on population sex ratio, genetic recombination and the evolution of sex chromosomes. The results show that while sex ratios are strongly female biased and there is evidence of environmental sex reversals, these reversals are unlikely to have caused the sex ratio skew, at least directly. The results demonstrate that environmental sex reversal can have an effect on the evolution of sex chromosomes, as the recombination patterns between them seem to be controlled by phenotypic, rather than genetic, sex. This potentially allows Y chromosomes to recombine, lending support for the recent hypothesis suggesting that sex-reversal may play an important role on the rejuvenation of Y chromosomes.

Ecology, population genetics and conservation of the African violet

The ongoing rapid fragmentation of tropical forests is a major threat to global biodiversity. This is because many of the tropical forests are so-called biodiversity 'hotspots', areas that host exceptional species richness and concentrations of endemic species. Forest fragmentation has negative ecological and genetic consequences for plant survival. Proposed reasons for plant species' loss in forest fragments are, e.g., abiotic edge effects, altered species interactions, increased genetic drift, and inbreeding depression. To be able to conserve plants in forest fragments, the ecological and genetic processes that threaten the species have to be understood. That is possible only after obtaining adequate information on their biology, including taxonomy, life history, reproduction, and spatial and genetic structure of the populations. In this research, I focused on the African violet (genus Saintpaulia), a little-studied conservation flagship from the Eastern Arc Mountains and Coastal Forests hotspot of Tanzania and Kenya. The main objective of the research was to increase understanding of the life history, ecology and population genetics of Saintpaulia that is needed for the design of appropriate conservation measures. A further aim was to provide population-level insights into the difficult taxonomy of Saintpaulia. Ecological field work was conducted in a relatively little fragmented protected forest in the Amani Nature Reserve in the East Usambara Mountains, in northeastern Tanzania, complemented by population genetic laboratory work and ecological experiments in Helsinki, Finland. All components of the research were conducted with Saintpaulia ionantha ssp. grotei, which forms a taxonomically controversial population complex in the study area. My results suggest that Saintpaulia has good reproductive performance in forests with low disturbance levels in the East Usambara Mountains. Another important finding was that seed production depends on sufficient pollinator service. The availability of pollinators should thus be considered in the in situ management of threatened populations. Dynamic population stage structures were observed suggesting that the studied populations are demographically viable. High mortality of seedlings and juveniles was observed during the dry season but this was compensated by ample recruitment of new seedlings after the rainy season. Reduced tree canopy closure and substrate quality are likely to exacerbate seedling and juvenile mortality, and, therefore, forest fragmentation and disturbance are serious threats to the regeneration of Saintpaulia. Restoration of sufficient shade to enhance seedling establishment is an important conservation measure in populations located in disturbed habitats. Long-term demographic monitoring, which enables the forecasting of a population s future, is also recommended in disturbed habitats. High genetic diversities were observed in the populations, which suggest that they possess the variation that is needed for evolutionary responses in a changing environment. Thus, genetic management of the studied populations does not seem necessary as long as the habitats remain favourable for Saintpaulia. The observed high levels of inbreeding in some of the populations, and the reduced fitness of the inbred progeny compared to the outbred progeny, as revealed by the hand-pollination experiment, indicate that inbreeding and inbreeding depression are potential mechanisms contributing to the extinction of Saintpaulia populations. The relatively weak genetic divergence of the three different morphotypes of Saintpaulia ionantha ssp. grotei lend support to the hypothesis that the populations in the Usambara/lowlands region represent a segregating metapopulation (or metapopulations), where subpopulations are adapting to their particular environments. The partial genetic and phenological integrity, and the distinct trailing habit of the morphotype 'grotei' would, however, justify its placement in a taxonomic rank of its own, perhaps in a subspecific rank.