28 resultados para scenarios
Resumo:
Maan törmäyskraaterien ikäjakauman mahdollinen ajallinen jaksollisuus on herättänyt laajaa keskustelua sen jälkeen, kun ilmiö ensimmäistä kertaa raportoitiin joukossa arvostettuja tieteellisiä artikkeleita vuonna 1984. Vaikka nykytiedon valossa on kyseenalaista perustuuko havaittu jaksollisuus todelliseen fysikaaliseen ilmiöön, on kuitenkin mahdollista, että jaksollisuus on todella olemassa ja se voitaisiin havaita laajemmalla ja tarkemmalla törmäyskraateriaineistolla. Tutkimuksessa luotiin simuloidut kraaterien ajalliset tiheys- ja kertymäfunktiot tapauksille, jossa kraaterit syntyvät joko täysin jaksollisella tai satunnaisella prosessilla. Näiden kahden ääritapauksen lisäksi luotiin jakaumat myös kahdelle niiden yhdistelmälle. Nämä mallit mahdollistavat myös erilaisten kraaterien iänmäärityksen epätarkkuuksien huomioonottamisen. Näistä jakaumista luotiin eri pituisia simuloituja kraaterien ikien aikasarjoja. Lopulta simuloiduista aikasarjoista pyrittiin Rayleigh'n menetelmän avulla etsimään jakaumassa ollutta jaksollisuutta. Tutkimuksemme perusteella ajallisen jaksollisuuden havaitseminen kraateriaikasarjoista on lähes mahdotonta mikäli vain yksi kolmasosa kraatereista on jaksollisen ilmiön aiheuttamia, vaikka nykyistä kraateriaineistoa laajempi ja tarkempi aineisto olisi tulevaisuudessa saatavilla. Mikäli kaksi kolmasosaa meteoriittitörmäyksistä on jaksollisia, sen havaitseminen on mahdollista, mutta vaatii huomattavasti tämän hetkistä kattavamman kraateriaineiston. Tutkimuksen perusteella on syytä epäillä, että havaittu kraaterien ajallinen jaksollisuus ei ole todellinen ilmiö.
Resumo:
In Finland, peat harvesting sites are utilized down almost to the mineral soil. In this situation the properties of mineral subsoil are likely to have considerable influence on the suitability for the various after-use forms. The aims of this study were to recognize the chemical and physical properties of mineral subsoils possibly limiting the after-use of cut-over peatlands, to define a minimum practice for mineral subsoil studies and to describe the role of different geological areas. The future percentages of the different after-use forms were predicted, which made it possible to predict also carbon accumulation in this future situation. Mineral subsoils of 54 different peat production areas were studied. Their general features and grain size distribution was analysed. Other general items studied were pH, electrical conductivity, organic matter, water soluble nutrients (P, NO3-N, NH4-N, S and Fe) and exchangeable nutrients (Ca, Mg and K). In some cases also other elements were analysed. In an additional case study carbon accumulation effectiveness before the intervention was evaluated on three sites in Oulu area (representing sites typically considered for peat production). Areas with relatively sulphur rich mineral subsoil and pool-forming areas with very fine and compact mineral subsoil together covered approximately 1/5 of all areas. These areas were unsuitable for commercial use. They were recommended for example for mire regeneration. Another approximate 1/5 of the areas included very coarse or very fine sediments. Commercial use of these areas would demand special techniques - like using the remaining peat layer for compensating properties missing from the mineral subsoil. One after-use form was seldom suitable for one whole released peat production area. Three typical distribution patterns (models) of different mineral subsoils within individual peatlands were found. 57 % of studied cut-over peatlands were well suited for forestry. In a conservative calculation 26% of the areas were clearly suitable for agriculture, horticulture or energy crop production. If till without large boulders was included, the percentage of areas suitable to field crop production would be 42 %. 9-14 % of all areas were well suitable for mire regeneration or bird sanctuaries, but all areas were considered possible for mire regeneration with correct techniques. Also another 11 % was recommended for mire regeneration to avoid disturbing the mineral subsoil, so total 20-25 % of the areas would be used for rewetting. High sulphur concentrations and acidity were typical to the areas below the highest shoreline of the ancient Litorina sea and Lake Ladoga Bothnian Bay zone. Also differences related to nutrition were detected. In coarse sediments natural nutrient concentration was clearly higher in Lake Ladoga Bothnian Bay zone and in the areas of Svecokarelian schists and gneisses, than in Granitoid area of central Finland and in Archaean gneiss areas. Based on this study the recommended minimum analysis for after-use planning was for pH, sulphur content and fine material (<0.06 mm) percentage. Nutrition capacity could be analysed using the natural concentrations of calcium, magnesium and potassium. Carbon accumulation scenarios were developed based on the land-use predictions. These scenarios were calculated for areas in peat production and the areas released from peat production (59300 ha + 15 671 ha). Carbon accumulation of the scenarios varied between 0.074 and 0.152 million t C a-1. In the three peatlands considered for peat production the long term carbon accumulation rates varied between 13 and 24 g C m-2 a-1. The natural annual carbon accumulation had been decreasing towards the time of possible intervention.
Resumo:
Olkiluoto Island is situated in the northern Baltic Sea, near the southwestern coast of Finland, and is the proposed location of a spent nuclear fuel repository. This study examined Holocene palaeoseismicity in the Olkiluoto area and in the surrounding sea areas by computer simulations together with acoustic-seismic, sedimentological and dating methods. The most abundant rock type on the island is migmatic mica gneiss, intruded by tonalites, granodiorites and granites. The surrounding Baltic Sea seabed consists of Palaeoproterozoic crystalline bedrock, which is to a great extent covered by younger Mesoproterozoic sedimentary rocks. The area contains several ancient deep-seated fracture zones that divide it into bedrock blocks. The response of bedrock at the Olkiluoto site was modelled considering four future ice-age scenarios. Each scenario produced shear displacements of fractures with different times of occurrence and varying recovery rates. Generally, the larger the maximum ice load, the larger were the permanent shear displacements. For a basic case, the maximum shear displacements were a few centimetres at the proposed nuclear waste repository level, at proximately 500 m b.s.l. High-resolution, low-frequency echo-sounding was used to examine the Holocene submarine sedimentary structures and possible direct and indirect indicators of palaeoseismic activity in the northern Baltic Sea. Echo-sounding profiles of Holocene submarine sediments revealed slides and slumps, normal faults, debris flows and turbidite-type structures. The profiles also showed pockmarks and other structures related to gas or groundwater seepages, which might be related to fracture zone activation. Evidence of postglacial reactivation in the study area was derived from the spatial occurrence of some of the structures, especial the faults and the seepages, in the vicinity of some old bedrock fracture zones. Palaeoseismic event(s) (a single or several events) in the Olkiluoto area were dated and the palaeoenvironment was characterized using palaeomagnetic, biostratigraphical and lithostratigraphical methods, enhancing the reliability of the chronology. Combined lithostratigraphy, biostratigraphy and palaeomagnetic stratigraphy revealed an age estimation of 10 650 to 10 200 cal. years BP for the palaeoseismic event(s). All Holocene sediment faults in the northern Baltic Sea occur at the same stratigraphical level, the age of which is estimated at 10 700 cal. years BP (9500 radiocarbon years BP). Their movement is suggested to have been triggered by palaeoseismic event(s) when the Late Weichselian ice sheet was retreating from the site and bedrock stresses were released along the bedrock fracture zones. Since no younger or repeated traces of seismic events were found, it corroborates the suggestion that the major seismic activity occurred within a short time during and after the last deglaciation. The origin of the gas/groundwater seepages remains unclear. Their reflections in the echo-sounding profiles imply that part of the gas is derived from the organic-bearing Litorina and modern gyttja clays. However, at least some of the gas is derived from the bedrock. Additional information could be gained by pore water analysis from the pockmarks. Information on postglacial fault activation and possible gas and/or fluid discharges under high hydraulic heads has relevance in evaluating the safety assessment of a planned spent nuclear fuel repository in the region.
Resumo:
Individual movement is very versatile and inevitable in ecology. In this thesis, I investigate two kinds of movement body condition dependent dispersal and small-range foraging movements resulting in quasi-local competition and their causes and consequences on the individual, population and metapopulation level. Body condition dependent dispersal is a widely evident but barely understood phenomenon. In nature, diverse relationships between body condition and dispersal are observed. I develop the first models that study the evolution of dispersal strategies that depend on individual body condition. In a patchy environment where patches differ in environmental conditions, individuals born in rich (e.g. nutritious) patches are on average stronger than their conspecifics that are born in poorer patches. Body condition (strength) determines competitive ability such that stronger individuals win competition with higher probability than weak individuals. Individuals compete for patches such that kin competition selects for dispersal. I determine the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for different ecological scenarios. My models offer explanations for both dispersal of strong individuals and dispersal of weak individuals. Moreover, I find that within-family dispersal behaviour is not always reflected on the population level. This supports the fact that no consistent pattern is detected in data on body condition dependent dispersal. It also encourages the refining of empirical investigations. Quasi-local competition defines interactions between adjacent populations where one population negatively affects the growth of the other population. I model a metapopulation in a homogeneous environment where adults of different subpopulations compete for resources by spending part of their foraging time in the neighbouring patches, while their juveniles only feed on the resource in their natal patch. I show that spatial patterns (different population densities in the patches) are stable only if one age class depletes the resource very much but mainly the other age group depends on it.
Resumo:
The ever expanding growth of the wireless access to the Internet in recent years has led to the proliferation of wireless and mobile devices to connect to the Internet. This has created the possibility of mobile devices equipped with multiple radio interfaces to connect to the Internet using any of several wireless access network technologies such as GPRS, WLAN and WiMAX in order to get the connectivity best suited for the application. These access networks are highly heterogeneous and they vary widely in their characteristics such as bandwidth, propagation delay and geographical coverage. The mechanism by which a mobile device switches between these access networks during an ongoing connection is referred to as vertical handoff and it often results in an abrupt and significant change in the access link characteristics. The most common Internet applications such as Web browsing and e-mail make use of the Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) as their transport protocol and the behaviour of TCP depends on the end-to-end path characteristics such as bandwidth and round-trip time (RTT). As the wireless access link is most likely the bottleneck of a TCP end-to-end path, the abrupt changes in the link characteristics due to a vertical handoff may affect TCP behaviour adversely degrading the performance of the application. The focus of this thesis is to study the effect of a vertical handoff on TCP behaviour and to propose algorithms that improve the handoff behaviour of TCP using cross-layer information about the changes in the access link characteristics. We begin this study by identifying the various problems of TCP due to a vertical handoff based on extensive simulation experiments. We use this study as a basis to develop cross-layer assisted TCP algorithms in handoff scenarios involving GPRS and WLAN access networks. We then extend the scope of the study by developing cross-layer assisted TCP algorithms in a broader context applicable to a wide range of bandwidth and delay changes during a handoff. And finally, the algorithms developed here are shown to be easily extendable to the multiple-TCP flow scenario. We evaluate the proposed algorithms by comparison with standard TCP (TCP SACK) and show that the proposed algorithms are effective in improving TCP behavior in vertical handoff involving a wide range of bandwidth and delay of the access networks. Our algorithms are easy to implement in real systems and they involve modifications to the TCP sender algorithm only. The proposed algorithms are conservative in nature and they do not adversely affect the performance of TCP in the absence of cross-layer information.
Resumo:
Sensor networks represent an attractive tool to observe the physical world. Networks of tiny sensors can be used to detect a fire in a forest, to monitor the level of pollution in a river, or to check on the structural integrity of a bridge. Application-specific deployments of static-sensor networks have been widely investigated. Commonly, these networks involve a centralized data-collection point and no sharing of data outside the organization that owns it. Although this approach can accommodate many application scenarios, it significantly deviates from the pervasive computing vision of ubiquitous sensing where user applications seamlessly access anytime, anywhere data produced by sensors embedded in the surroundings. With the ubiquity and ever-increasing capabilities of mobile devices, urban environments can help give substance to the ubiquitous sensing vision through Urbanets, spontaneously created urban networks. Urbanets consist of mobile multi-sensor devices, such as smart phones and vehicular systems, public sensor networks deployed by municipalities, and individual sensors incorporated in buildings, roads, or daily artifacts. My thesis is that "multi-sensor mobile devices can be successfully programmed to become the underpinning elements of an open, infrastructure-less, distributed sensing platform that can bring sensor data out of their traditional close-loop networks into everyday urban applications". Urbanets can support a variety of services ranging from emergency and surveillance to tourist guidance and entertainment. For instance, cars can be used to provide traffic information services to alert drivers to upcoming traffic jams, and phones to provide shopping recommender services to inform users of special offers at the mall. Urbanets cannot be programmed using traditional distributed computing models, which assume underlying networks with functionally homogeneous nodes, stable configurations, and known delays. Conversely, Urbanets have functionally heterogeneous nodes, volatile configurations, and unknown delays. Instead, solutions developed for sensor networks and mobile ad hoc networks can be leveraged to provide novel architectures that address Urbanet-specific requirements, while providing useful abstractions that hide the network complexity from the programmer. This dissertation presents two middleware architectures that can support mobile sensing applications in Urbanets. Contory offers a declarative programming model that views Urbanets as a distributed sensor database and exposes an SQL-like interface to developers. Context-aware Migratory Services provides a client-server paradigm, where services are capable of migrating to different nodes in the network in order to maintain a continuous and semantically correct interaction with clients. Compared to previous approaches to supporting mobile sensing urban applications, our architectures are entirely distributed and do not assume constant availability of Internet connectivity. In addition, they allow on-demand collection of sensor data with the accuracy and at the frequency required by every application. These architectures have been implemented in Java and tested on smart phones. They have proved successful in supporting several prototype applications and experimental results obtained in ad hoc networks of phones have demonstrated their feasibility with reasonable performance in terms of latency, memory, and energy consumption.
Resumo:
The TCP protocol is used by most Internet applications today, including the recent mobile wireless terminals that use TCP for their World-Wide Web, E-mail and other traffic. The recent wireless network technologies, such as GPRS, are known to cause delay spikes in packet transfer. This causes unnecessary TCP retransmission timeouts. This dissertation proposes a mechanism, Forward RTO-Recovery (F-RTO) for detecting the unnecessary TCP retransmission timeouts and thus allow TCP to take appropriate follow-up actions. We analyze a Linux F-RTO implementation in various network scenarios and investigate different alternatives to the basic algorithm. The second part of this dissertation is focused on quickly adapting the TCP's transmission rate when the underlying link characteristics change suddenly. This can happen, for example, due to vertical hand-offs between GPRS and WLAN wireless technologies. We investigate the Quick-Start algorithm that, in collaboration with the network routers, aims to quickly probe the available bandwidth on a network path, and allow TCP's congestion control algorithms to use that information. By extensive simulations we study the different router algorithms and parameters for Quick-Start, and discuss the challenges Quick-Start faces in the current Internet. We also study the performance of Quick-Start when applied to vertical hand-offs between different wireless link technologies.
Resumo:
Mobile RFID services for the Internet of Things can be created by using RFID as an enabling technology in mobile devices. Humans, devices, and things are the content providers and users of these services. Mobile RFID services can be either provided on mobile devices as stand-alone services or combined with end-to-end systems. When different service solution scenarios are considered, there are more than one possible architectural solution in the network, mobile, and back-end server areas. Combining the solutions wisely by applying the software architecture and engineering principles, a combined solution can be formulated for certain application specific use cases. This thesis illustrates these ideas. It also shows how generally the solutions can be used in real world use case scenarios. A case study is used to add further evidence.
Resumo:
With the proliferation of wireless and mobile devices equipped with multiple radio interfaces to connect to the Internet, vertical handoff involving different wireless access technologies will enable users to get the best of connectivity and service quality during the lifetime of a TCP connection. A vertical handoff may introduce an abrupt, significant change in the access link characteristics and as a result the end-to-end path characteristics such as the bandwidth and the round-trip time (RTT) of a TCP connection may change considerably. TCP may take several RTTs to adapt to these changes in path characteristics and during this interval there may be packet losses and / or inefficient utilization of the available bandwidth. In this thesis we study the behaviour and performance of TCP in the presence of a vertical handoff. We identify the different handoff scenarios that adversely affect TCP performance. We propose several enhancements to the TCP sender algorithm that are specific to the different handoff scenarios to adapt TCP better to a vertical handoff. Our algorithms are conservative in nature and make use of cross-layer information obtained from the lower layers regarding the characteristics of the access links involved in a handoff. We evaluate the proposed algorithms by extensive simulation of the various handoff scenarios involving access links with a wide range of bandwidth and delay. We show that the proposed algorithms are effective in improving the TCP behaviour in various handoff scenarios and do not adversely affect the performance of TCP in the absence of cross-layer information.
Resumo:
This work combines the cognitive theory of folk-theoretical thought with the classical Aristotelian theory of artistic proof in rhetoric. The first half of the work discusses the common ground shared by the elements of artistic proof (logos, pathos, ethos) and the elements of folk-theoretical thought (naïve physics, folk biology, folk psychology, naïve sociology). Combining rhetoric with the cognitive theory of folk-theoretical thought creates a new point of view for argumentation analysis. The logos of an argument can be understood as the inferential relations established between the different parts of an argument. Consequently, within this study the analysis of logos is to be viewed as the analysis of the inferential folk-theoretical elements that make the suggested factual states-of-things appear plausible within given argumentative structures. The pathos of an argumentative structure can be understood as determining the quality of the argumentation in question in the sense that emotive elements play a great part in what can be called a distinction between good and deceptive rhetoric. In the context of this study the analysis of pathos is to be viewed as the analysis of the emotive content of argumentative structures and of whether they aim at facilitating surface- or deep cognitive elaboration of the suggested matters. The ethos of an argumentative structure means both the speaker-presentation and audience-construct that can be discerned within a body of argumentation. In the context of this study, the analysis of ethos is to be understood as the analysis of mutually manifest cognitive environments in the context of argumentation. The theory is used to analyse Catholic Internet discussion concerning cloning. The discussion is divided into six themes: Human Dignity, Sacred Family, Exploitation / Dehumanisation, Playing God, Monsters and Horror Scenarios and Ensoulment. Each theme is analysed for both the rhetorical and the cognitive elements that can be seen creating persuasive force within the argumentative structures presented. It is apparent that the Catholic voices on the Internet extensively oppose cloning. The voices utilise rhetoric that is aggressive and pejorative more often than not. Furthermore, deceptive rhetoric (in the sense presented above) plays a great part in argumentative structures of the Catholic voices. The theory of folk-theoretical thought can be seen as a useful tool for analysing the possible reasons why the Catholic speakers think about cloning and choose to present cloning in their argumentation as they do. The logos utilized in the argumentative structures presented can usually be viewed as based on folk-theoretical inference concerning biology and psychology. The structures of pathos utilized generally appear to aim at generating fear appeal in the assumed audiences, often incorporating counter-intuitive elements. The ethos utilised in the arguments generally revolves around Christian mythology and issues of social responsibility. These structures can also be viewed from the point of view of folk psychology and naïve sociological assumptions.
Resumo:
The dissertation consists of an introductory chapter and three essays that apply search-matching theory to study the interaction of labor market frictions, technological change and macroeconomic fluctuations. The first essay studies the impact of capital-embodied growth on equilibrium unemployment by extending a vintage capital/search model to incorporate vintage human capital. In addition to the capital obsolescence (or creative destruction) effect that tends to raise unemployment, vintage human capital introduces a skill obsolescence effect of faster growth that has the opposite sign. Faster skill obsolescence reduces the value of unemployment, hence wages and leads to more job creation and less job destruction, unambiguously reducing unemployment. The second essay studies the effect of skill biased technological change on skill mismatch and the allocation of workers and firms in the labor market. By allowing workers to invest in education, we extend a matching model with two-sided heterogeneity to incorporate an endogenous distribution of high and low skill workers. We consider various possibilities for the cost of acquiring skills and show that while unemployment increases in most scenarios, the effect on the distribution of vacancy and worker types varies according to the structure of skill costs. When the model is extended to incorporate endogenous labor market participation, we show that the unemployment rate becomes less informative of the state of the labor market as the participation margin absorbs employment effects. The third essay studies the effects of labor taxes on equilibrium labor market outcomes and macroeconomic dynamics in a New Keynesian model with matching frictions. Three policy instruments are considered: a marginal tax and a tax subsidy to produce tax progression schemes, and a replacement ratio to account for variability in outside options. In equilibrium, the marginal tax rate and replacement ratio dampen economic activity whereas tax subsidies boost the economy. The marginal tax rate and replacement ratio amplify shock responses whereas employment subsidies weaken them. The tax instruments affect the degree to which the wage absorbs shocks. We show that increasing tax progression when taxation is initially progressive is harmful for steady state employment and output, and amplifies the sensitivity of macroeconomic variables to shocks. When taxation is initially proportional, increasing progression is beneficial for output and employment and dampens shock responses.
Resumo:
In the 21st century, human-induced global climate change has been highlighted as one of the most serious threats to ecosystems worldwide. According to global climate scenarios, the mean temperature in Finland is expected to increase by 1.8 4.0°C by the end of the century. The regional and seasonal change in temperature has predicted to be spatially and temporally asymmetric, where the High-Arctic and Antarctic areas and winter and spring seasons have been projected to face the highest temperature increase. To understand how species respond to the ongoing climate change, we need to study how climate affects species in different phases of their life cycle. The impact of climate on breeding and migration of eight large-sized bird species was studied in this thesis, taking food availability into account. The findings show that climatic variables have considerable impact on the life-history traits of large-sized birds in northern Europe. The magnitude of climatic effects on migration and breeding was comparable with that of food supply, conventionally regarded as the main factor affecting these life-history traits. Based on the results of this thesis and the current climate scenarios, the following not mutually exclusive responses are possible in the near future. Firstly, asymmetric climate change may result in a mistiming of breeding because mild winters and early spring may lead to earlier breeding, whereas offspring are hatching into colder conditions which elevate mortality. Secondly, climate induced responses can differ between species with different breeding tactics (income vs. capital breeding), so that especially capital breeders can gain advantage on global warming as they can sustain higher energy resources. Thirdly, increasing precipitation has the potential to reduce the breeding success of many species by exposing nestlings to more severe post-hatching conditions and hampering the hunting conditions of parents. Fourthly, decreasing ice cover and earlier ice-break in the Baltic Sea will allow earlier spring migration in waterfowl. In eiders, this can potentially lead to more productive breeding. Fifthly, warming temperatures can favour parents preparing for breeding and increase nestling survival. Lastly, the climate-induced phenological changes in life history events will likely continue. Furthermore, interactions between climate and food resources can be complex and interact with each other. Eiders provide an illustrative example of this complexity, being caught in the crossfire between more benign ice conditions and lower salinity negatively affecting their prime food resource. The general conclusion is that climate is controlling not only the phenology of the species but also their reproductive output, thus affecting the entire population dynamics.
Resumo:
In northern latitudes, temperature is the key factor driving the temporal scales of biological activity, namely the length of the growing season and the seasonal efficiency of photosynthesis. The formation of atmospheric concentrations of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) are linked to the intensity of biological activity. However, interdisciplinary knowledge of the role of temperature in the biological processes related to the annual cycle and photosynthesis and atmospheric chemistry is not fully understood. The aim of this study was to improve understanding of the role of temperature in these three interlinked areas: 1) onset of growing season, 2) photosynthetic efficiency and 3) BVOC air concentrations in a boreal forest. The results present a cross-section of the role of temperature on different spatial (southern northern boreal), structural (tree forest stand - forest) and temporal (day-season- year) scales. The fundamental status of the Thermal Time model in predicting the onset of spring recovery was confirmed. However, it was recommended that sequential models would be more appropriate tools when the onset of the growing season is estimated under a warmer climate. A similar type of relationship between photosynthetic efficiency and temperature history was found in both southern and northern boreal forest stands. This result draws attention to the critical question of the seasonal efficiency of coniferous species to emit organic compounds under a warmer climate. New knowledge about the temperature dependence of the concentrations of biogenic volatile organic compounds in a boreal forest stand was obtained. The seasonal progress and the inter-correlation of BVOC concentrations in ambient air indicated a link to biological activity. Temperature was found to be the main driving factor for the concentrations. However, in addition to temperature, other factors may play a significant role here, especially when the peak concentrations are studied. There is strong evidence that the spring recovery and phenological events of many plant species have already advanced in Europe. This study does not fully support this observation. In a boreal forest, changes in the annual cycle, especially the temperature requirement in winter, would have an impact on the atmospheric BVOC composition. According to this study, more joint phenological and BVOC field observations and laboratory experiments are still needed to improve these scenarios.