74 resultados para reference modelling


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Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women in the western countries. Approximately two-thirds of breast cancer tumours are hormone dependent, requiring estrogens to grow. Estrogens are formed in the human body via a multistep route starting from cholesterol. The final steps in the biosynthesis include the CYP450 aromatase enzyme, converting the male hormones androgens (preferred substrate androstenedione ASD) into estrogens(estrone E1), and the 17beta-HSD1 enzyme, converting the biologically less active E1 into the active hormone 17beta-hydroxyestradiol E2. E2 is bound to the nuclear estrogen receptors causing a cascade of biochemical reactions leading to cell proliferation in normal tissue, and to tumour growth in cancer tissue. Aromatase and 17beta-HSD1 are expressed in or near the breast tumour, locally providing the tissue with estrogens. One approach in treating hormone dependent breast tumours is to block the local estrogen production by inhibiting these two enzymes. Aromatase inhibitors are already on the market in treating breast cancer, despite the lack of an experimentally solved structure. The structure of 17beta-HSD1, on the other hand, has been solved, but no commercial drugs have emerged from the drug discovery projects reported in the literature. Computer-assisted molecular modelling is an invaluable tool in modern drug design projects. Modelling techniques can be used to generate a model of the target protein and to design novel inhibitors for them even if the target protein structure is unknown. Molecular modelling has applications in predicting the activities of theoretical inhibitors and in finding possible active inhibitors from a compound database. Inhibitor binding at atomic level can also be studied with molecular modelling. To clarify the interactions between the aromatase enzyme and its substrate and inhibitors, we generated a homology model based on a mammalian CYP450 enzyme, rabbit progesterone 21-hydroxylase CYP2C5. The model was carefully validated using molecular dynamics simulations (MDS) with and without the natural substrate ASD. Binding orientation of the inhibitors was based on the hypothesis that the inhibitors coordinate to the heme iron, and were studied using MDS. The inhibitors were dietary phytoestrogens, which have been shown to reduce the risk for breast cancer. To further validate the model, the interactions of a commercial breast cancer drug were studied with MDS and ligand–protein docking. In the case of 17beta-HSD1, a 3D QSAR model was generated on the basis of MDS of an enzyme complex with active inhibitor and ligand–protein docking, employing a compound library synthesised in our laboratory. Furthermore, four pharmacophore hypotheses with and without a bound substrate or an inhibitor were developed and used in screening a commercial database of drug-like compounds. The homology model of aromatase showed stable behaviour in MDS and was capable of explaining most of the results from mutagenesis studies. We were able to identify the active site residues contributing to the inhibitor binding, and explain differences in coordination geometry corresponding to the inhibitory activity. Interactions between the inhibitors and aromatase were in agreement with the mutagenesis studies reported for aromatase. Simulations of 17beta-HSD1 with inhibitors revealed an inhibitor binding mode with hydrogen bond interactions previously not reported, and a hydrophobic pocket capable of accommodating a bulky side chain. Pharmacophore hypothesis generation, followed by virtual screening, was able to identify several compounds that can be used in lead compound generation. The visualisation of the interaction fields from the QSAR model and the pharmacophores provided us with novel ideas for inhibitor development in our drug discovery project.

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This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Åland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics of Socupulini moths description, diversity and distribution were analysed at a world-wide scale and for the first time GIS techniques were used for Scopulini moth geographical distribution analysis. This study revealed that Scopulini moths have a cosmopolitan distribution. The majority of the species have been described from the low latitudes, sub-Saharan Africa being the hot spot of species diversity. However, the taxonomical effort has been uneven among biogeographical regions. Paper III showed that forest cover change can be analysed in great detail using modern airborne imagery techniques and historical aerial photographs. However, when spatiotemporal forest cover change is studied care has to be taken in co-registration and image interpretation when historical black and white aerial photography is used. In Paper (IV) human population distribution and abundance could be modelled with fairly good results using geospatial predictors and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. Moreover, land cover layer is not necessary needed as a predictor because first and second-order image texture measurements derived from satellite imagery had more power to explain the variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. Paper V showed that generalized linear model (GLM) is a suitable technique for fire occurrence prediction and for burned area estimation. GLM based burned area estimations were found to be more superior than the existing MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). However, spatial autocorrelation of fires has to be taken into account when using the GLM technique for fire occurrence prediction. Paper VI showed that novel statistical predictive modelling techniques can be used to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping at a regional scale. However, some noticeable variation between different predictive modelling techniques for fire occurrence prediction and burned area estimation existed.

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The Taita Hills in southeastern Kenya form the northernmost part of Africa’s Eastern Arc Mountains, which have been identified by Conservation International as one of the top ten biodiversity hotspots on Earth. As with many areas of the developing world, over recent decades the Taita Hills have experienced significant population growth leading to associated major changes in land use and land cover (LULC), as well as escalating land degradation, particularly soil erosion. Multi-temporal medium resolution multispectral optical satellite data, such as imagery from the SPOT HRV, HRVIR, and HRG sensors, provides a valuable source of information for environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level at local and regional scales. However, utilization of multi-temporal SPOT data in quantitative remote sensing studies requires the removal of atmospheric effects and the derivation of surface reflectance factor. Furthermore, for areas of rugged terrain, such as the Taita Hills, topographic correction is necessary to derive comparable reflectance throughout a SPOT scene. Reliable monitoring of LULC change over time and modelling of land degradation and human population distribution and abundance are of crucial importance to sustainable development, natural resource management, biodiversity conservation, and understanding and mitigating climate change and its impacts. The main purpose of this thesis was to develop and validate enhanced processing of SPOT satellite imagery for use in environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level, in regions of the developing world with limited ancillary data availability. The Taita Hills formed the application study site, whilst the Helsinki metropolitan region was used as a control site for validation and assessment of the applied atmospheric correction techniques, where multiangular reflectance field measurements were taken and where horizontal visibility meteorological data concurrent with image acquisition were available. The proposed historical empirical line method (HELM) for absolute atmospheric correction was found to be the only applied technique that could derive surface reflectance factor within an RMSE of < 0.02 ps in the SPOT visible and near-infrared bands; an accuracy level identified as a benchmark for successful atmospheric correction. A multi-scale segmentation/object relationship modelling (MSS/ORM) approach was applied to map LULC in the Taita Hills from the multi-temporal SPOT imagery. This object-based procedure was shown to derive significant improvements over a uni-scale maximum-likelihood technique. The derived LULC data was used in combination with low cost GIS geospatial layers describing elevation, rainfall and soil type, to model degradation in the Taita Hills in the form of potential soil loss, utilizing the simple universal soil loss equation (USLE). Furthermore, human population distribution and abundance were modelled with satisfactory results using only SPOT and GIS derived data and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. The SPOT derived LULC data was found to be unnecessary as a predictor because the first and second order image texture measurements had greater power to explain variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. The ability of the procedures to be implemented locally in the developing world using low-cost or freely available data and software was considered. The techniques discussed in this thesis are considered equally applicable to other medium- and high-resolution optical satellite imagery, as well the utilized SPOT data.

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Kansainvälisen oikeuden alaan kuuluvassa tutkielmassa käsitellään humanitaarisen intervention oikeutusta ja laillisuutta. Tutkimuskysymyksenä on, missä määrin humanitaarisilla näkökohdilla perusteltuja sotilaallisia toimia tai niillä uhkaamista voi pitää kansainvälisoikeudellisesti hyväksyttävänä ja millainen painoarvo ennakkotapauksena olisi annettava NATO-maiden Kosovossa toteuttamalle väliintulolle. Tutkielmassa perehdytään ihmisoikeusajattelun tiettyjen taustaoletusten kritiikkiin. Tarkastelun kohteena ovat erityisesti kannanotot, joiden mukaan ihmisoikeuksia ei voi pitää luonteeltaan universaaleina, sekä kyseiseen kritiikkiin liittyvät väitteet siitä, että ns. hegemonisessa asemassa olevat valtiot hyödyntävät ihmisoikeusargumentteja oikeuttaakseen voimankäyttönsä. Universaalisuuskritiikkiä voidaan pitää pitkälti perusteltuna, mutta nykyinen kansainvälinen yhteisö tarvitsee kuitenkin tietynlaisia yleismaailmallisia normeja voidakseen toimia tehokkaasti. Kritiikin ei voikaan katsoa pätevän humanitaarisen intervention kannalta keskeisiin ihmisoikeusnormeihin kuten kansanmurhan kieltoon, sillä kyseiset velvoitteet suojaavat kansainvälisen yhteisön toimivuutta ja uskottavuutta. Humanitaarisiin argumentteihin liittyy kuitenkin muita ongelmia: niillä on esimerkiksi aika ajoin pyritty oikeuttamaan sotilaallisia toimia, joissa ihmisoikeusnäkökohdat eivät välttämättä ole olleet etusijalla. Ihmisoikeuksille ei ole syytä antaa kansainvälisessä oikeudessa asemaa universaaleina "superargumentteina", jotka eivät olisi kyseenalaistettavissa. YK:n peruskirjan ja kansainvälisen tapaoikeuden näkökulmasta humanitaarisen intervention kaltaiseen voimankäyttöön vaaditaan turvallisuusneuvoston hyväksyntä, jota ei Kosovo-operaatioon saatu. Interventiota voi tässä suhteessa pitää yksiselitteisesti laittomana, sillä sen tueksi esitetyt oikeudelliset argumentit eivät ole vakuuttavia. Tapaukseen liittyvät ihmisoikeusnäkökohdat ovat kuitenkin siinä määrin merkittäviä, että ongelmaan ei ole perusteltua suhtautua tiukan legalistisesti. Operaation hyväksyminen moraaliargumenttien nojalla voisi kuitenkin johtaa nykyisten voimankäyttörajoitusten marginalisoitumiseen, mikä olisi yllä käsitellyn kritiikin valossa ongelmallista. Tutkielmassa nostetaan suositeltavaksi ratkaisuksi lähestymistapa, jossa Kosovon tapaus ymmärretään yksittäisenä oikeudenvastaisena mutta samalla oikeudenulkoisena poikkeustapauksena. Tällöin peruskirjan mukainen voimankäytön sääntely säilyy entisellään ilman että humanitaariset näkökohdat jäisivät tyystin huomiotta. Ratkaisu ei sulje pois mahdollisuutta suhtautua positiivisesti Kosovo-operaation mahdollisesti luomaan "poliittiseen normiin": suuren mittakaavan ihmisoikeusloukkaukset eivät jää Euroopassa seurauksitta. Ilman turvallisuusneuvoston suostumusta toteutettaviin humanitaarisiin interventioihin liittyvien käytännöllisten ja kansainvälisoikeudellisten riskien vuoksi niihin on kuitenkin aihetta suhtautua suurella varauksella.

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Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

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The thesis provides a proposal to divide Alycidae G. Canestrini & Fanzago into two subfamilies and four tribes. This new hierarchy is based on a reassessment and reranking of new and previously known synapomorphies of the clusters concerned by cladistic analysis, using 60 morphological characters for 48 ingroup species. The basic characters of the taxa are illustrated either by SEM micrographs (Scanning Electron Microscopy) or by outline drawings. The presented classification includes the definitions of Alycini G. Canestrini & Fanzago new rank; Bimichaeliini Womersley new rank; Petralycini new rank; and the (re)descriptions of Alycus C.L. Koch, Pachygnathus Dugès, Amphialycus Zachvatkin, Bimichaelia Thor and Laminamichaelia gen. nov. The species described or redescribed are: Pachygnathus wasastjernae sp. nov. from Kvarken (Merenkurkku), Finland; Pachygnathus villosus Dugès (in Oken); Alycus roseus C.L. Koch; Alycus denasutus (Grandjean) comb. and stat. nov.; Alycus trichotus (Grandjean) comb. nov.; Alycus marinus (Schuster) comb. nov.; Amphialycus (Amphialycus) pentophthalmus Zachvatkin; Amphialycus (Amphialycus) leucogaster (Grandjean); and Amphialycus (Orthacarus) oblongus (Halbert) comb. nov.; Bimichaelia augustana (Berlese); Bimichaelia sarekensis Trägårdh; Laminamichaelia setigera (Berlese) comb. nov.; Laminamichelia arbusculosa (Grandjean) comb. nov.; Laminamichelia subnuda (Berlese) comb. nov. and Petralycus unicornis Grandjean. Fourteen nominal species were found to be junior synonymies. The importance of sensory organs in taxonomy is well recognized, but inclusion of the elaborate skin pattern seemed to improve essentially the usefulness of the prodorsal sensory area. The detailed pictures of the prodorsa of the European alycids could be used like passport photographs for the species. A database like this of prodorsa of other mite taxa as well might be an answer to future needs of species identification in soil zoology, ecology and conservation.

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Farmland bird species have been declining in Europe. Many declines have coincided with general intensification of farming practices. In Finland, replacement of mixed farming, including rotational pastures, with specialized cultivation has been one of the most drastic changes from the 1960s to the 1990s. This kind of habitat deterioration limits the persistence of populations, as has been previously indicated from local populations. Integrated population monitoring, which gathers species-specific information of population size and demography, can be used to assess the response of a population to environment changes also at a large spatial scale. I targeted my analysis at the Finnish starling (Sturnus vulgaris). Starlings are common breeders in farmland habitats, but severe declines of local populations have been reported from Finland in the 1970s and 1980s and later from other parts of Europe. Habitat deterioration (replacement of pasture and grassland habitats with specialized cultivation areas) limits reproductive success of the species. I analysed regional population data in order to exemplify the importance of agricultural change to bird population dynamics. I used nestling ringing and nest-card data from 1951 to 2005 in order to quantify population trends and per capita reproductive success within several geographical regions (south/north and west/east aspects). I used matrix modelling, acknowledging age-specific survival and fecundity parameters and density-dependence, to model population dynamics. Finnish starlings declined by 80% from the end of the 1960s up to the end of the 1980s. The observed patterns and the model indicated that the population decline was due to the decline of the carrying capacity of farmland habitats. The decline was most severe in north Finland where populations largely become extinct. However, habitat deterioration was most severe in the southern breeding areas. The deteriorations in habitat quality decreased reproduction, which finally caused the decline. I suggest that poorly-productive northern populations have been partly maintained by immigration from the highly-productive southern populations. As the southern populations declined, ceasing emigration caused the population extinction in north. This phenomenon was explained with source sink population dynamics, which I structured and verified on the basis of a spatially explicit simulation model. I found that southern Finnish starling population exhibits ten-year cyclic regularity, a phenomenon that can be explained with delayed density-dependence in reproduction.

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For optimal treatment planning, a thorough assessment of the metastatic status of mucosal squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (HNSCC) is required. Current imaging methods do not allow the recognition of all patients with metastatic disease. Therefore, elective treatment of the cervical lymph nodes is usually given to patients in whom the risk of subclinical metastasis is estimated to exceed 15-20%. The objective of this study was to improve the pre-treatment evaluation of patients diagnosed with HNSCC. Particularly, we aimed at improving the identification of patients who will benefit from elective neck treatment. Computed tomography (CT) of the chest and abdomen was performed prospectively for 100 patients diagnosed with HNSCC. The findings were analysed to clarify the indications for this examination in this patient group. CT of the chest influenced the treatment approach in 3% of patients, while CT of the abdomen did not reveal any significant findings. Our results suggest that CT of the chest and abdomen is not indicated routinely for patients with newly diagnosed HNSCC but can be considered in selected cases. Retrospective analysis of 80 patients treated for early stage squamous cell carcinoma of the oral tongue was performed to investigate the potential benefits of elective neck treatment and to examine whether histopathological features of the primary tumour could be used in the prediction of occult metastases, local recurrence, or/and poor survival. Patients who had received elective neck treatment had significantly fewer cervical recurrences during the follow-up when compared to those who only had close observation of the cervical lymph nodes. Elective neck treatment did not result in survival benefit, however. Of the histopathological parameters examined, depth of infiltration and pT-category (representing tumour diameter) predicted occult cervical metastasis, but only the pT-category predicted local recurrence. Depth of infiltration can be used in the identification of at risk patients but no clear cut-off value separating high-risk and low-risk patients was found. None of the histopathological parameters examined predicted survival. Sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy was studied as a means of diagnosing patients with subclinical cervical metastases. SLN biopsy was applied to 46 patients who underwent elective neck dissection for oral squamous cell carcinoma. In addition, SLN biopsy was applied to 13 patients with small oral cavity tumours who were not intended to undergo elective neck dissection because of low risk of occult metastasis. The sensitivity of SLN biopsy for finding subclinical cervical metastases was found to be 67%, when SLN status was compared to the metastatic status of the rest of the neck dissection specimen. Of the patients not planned to have elective neck dissection, SLN biopsy revealed cervical metastasis in 15% of the patients. Our results suggest that SLN biopsy can not yet entirely replace elective neck dissection in the treatment of oral cancer, but it seems beneficial for patients with low risk of metastasis who are not intended for elective neck treatment according to current treatment protocols.