A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

On the Benefits and Problems of the Object-Oriented Paradigm including a Finnish Study

Several researchers are of the opinion that there are many benefits in using the object-oriented paradigm in information systems development. If the object-oriented paradigm is used, the development of information systems may, for example, be faster and more efficient. On the other hand, there are also several problems with the paradigm. For example, it is often considered complex, it is often difficult to make use of the reuse concept and it is still immature in some areas. Although there are several interesting features in the object-oriented paradigm, there is still little comprehensive knowledge of the benefits and problems associated with it. The objective of the following study was to investigate and to gain more understanding of the benefits and problems of the object-oriented paradigm. A review of previous studies was made and twelve benefits and twelve problems were established. These benefits and problems were then analysed, studied and discussed. Further a survey and some case studies were made in order to get some knowledge on what benefits and problems with the object-oriented paradigm Finnish software companies had experienced. One hundred and four companies answered the survey that was sent to all Finnish software companies with five or more employees. The case studies were made with six large Finnish software companies. The major finding was that Finnish software companies were exceptionally positive towards the object-oriented information systems development and had experienced very few of the proposed problems. Finally two models for further research were developed. The first model presents connections between benefits and the second between problems.

Technology-related peso problems in stock returns

Although empirical evidence suggests the contrary, many asset pricing models assume stock returns to be symmetrically distributed. In this paper it is argued that the occurrence of negative jumps in a firm's future earnings and, consequently, in its stock price, is positively related to the level of network externalities in the firm's product market. If the ex post frequency of these negative jumps in a sample does not equal the ex ante assessed probability of occurrence, the sample is subject to a peso problem. The hypothesis is tested for by regressing the skewness coefficient of a firm’s realised stock return distribution on the firm’s R&D intensity, i.e. the ratio of the firm’s research and development expenditure to its net sales. The empirical results support the technology-related peso problem hypothesis. In samples subject to such a peso problem, the returns are biased up and the variance is biased down.

”Waxaa i bartay hooyaday waawa u muhiim naaska caruurta.” Äitini opetti, että rintamaito on tärkeää lapselle. Osallistava tutkimus auktoritatiivisen tiedon omaksumisesta somalikulttuuritaustaisten naisten imetyskäytännöissä.

Suomessa asuvat somalitaustaiset maahanmuuttajaäidit luopuvat imetyksestä ja ruokkivat vauvojaan äidinmaidonkorvikkeella, vaikka somalikulttuurissa arvostetaan imetystä. Tuen ja tiedon puutetta on arveltu syyksi pulloruokinnan yleisyyteen. Tarkoituksenani on tutkia osallistavia menetelmiä käyttäen, minkälaisia imetykseen liittyviä tietojärjestelmiä somaliäidit pitävät auktoritatiivisina eli arvovaltaisina. Tarkastelen tiedon auktoritatiivisuutta etnografisten esimerkkien valossa hyödyntäen Brigitte Jordanin auktoritatiivisen tiedon käsitettä. Tutkin Jean Pierre Olivier de Sardanin teorian avulla, kuinka paikalliset populaarit tietojärjestelmät kohtaavat tieteellis-teknisen tiedon kehityksen kontekstissa. Tutkin myös, kuinka somaliäitien imetystietojärjestelmät kohtaavat suomalaisen terveydenhoitojärjestelmän edustaman imetystiedon. Osallistavien menetelmien tarkoituksena on saada heikkojen ja sorrettujen yhteisöjen ääni kuuluviin. Tutkimukseni tiedonantajina on seitsemäntoista somalimaahanmuuttajaäitiä ja yksi suomalainen äitiys- ja lastenneuvolan terveydenhoitaja. Käytän tiedonkeruumenetelminä puolistrukturoituja teemahaastatteluja, jonka lisäksi teen osallistuvaa havainnointia ja osallistavia menetelmiä kolmessa ryhmähaastattelutilanteessa. Käytän Rapi Rurad Appraisal (RRA) –menetelmiä, kuten Venn-diagrammia ja pisteytystä. Tutkimukseni tulos on, että somaliäitien imetykseen liittyvä tieto koostuu kolmesta tietojärjestelmästä, joita ovat sukuverkostoista tuleva perinteinen tietotaito, islaminuskon terveystieto sekä suomalaisen terveydenhoitojärjestelmän tieto. Näistä eri tietolähteistä tuleva imetystieto ei ole sisällöltään ristiriidassa. Imetykseen liittyvät vaikeudet ovat käytännön ongelmiin, kuten sukuverkoston hajoamiseen ja suomalaisen terveydenhoitojärjestelmän kanssa kommunikointiin liittyviä.

Substance misuse problems during pregnancy with special emphasis on buprenorphine

Maternal drug abuse during pregnancy endangers the future health and wellbeing of the infant and growing child. On the other hand, via maternal abstinence, these problems would never occur; so the problems would be totally preventable. Buprenorphine is widely used in opioid maintenance treatment as a substitute medication. In Finland, during 2000 s buprenorphine misuse has steadily increased. In 2009 almost one third of clientele of substance treatment units were in treatment because of buprenorphine dependence. At Helsinki Women s Clinic the first child with prenatal buprenorphine exposure was born in 2001. During 1992-2001 in the three capital area maternity hospitals (Women s clinic, Maternity hospital, Jorvi hospital) 524 women were followed at special antenatal clinics due to substance abuse problems. Three control women were drawn from birth register to each case woman and matched for parity and same place and date of the index birth. According to register data mortality rate was 38-fold higher among cases than controls within 6-15 years after index birth. Especially, the risk for violent or accidental death was increased. The women with substance misuse problems had also elevated risk for viral hepatitis and psychiatric morbidity. They were more often reimbursed for psychopharmaceuticals. Disability pensions and rehabilitation allowances were more often granted to cases than controls. In total 626 children were born from these pregnancies. According to register data 38% of these children were placed in out-of-home care as part of child protection services by the age of two years, and half of them by the age of 12 years, the median follow-up time was 5.8 years. The risk for out-of-home care was associated with factors identifiable during the pre- and perinatal period. In 2002-2005 67 pregnant women with buprenorphine dependence were followed up at the Helsinki University Hospital, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology. Their pregnancies were uneventful. The prematurity rate was similar and there were no more major anomalies compared to the national statistics. The neonates were lighter compared to the national statistics. They were also born in good condition, with no perinatal hypoxia as defined by standard clinical parameters or certain biochemical markers in the cord blood: erythropoietin, S100 and cardiac troponin-t. Almost 80% of newborns developed neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) and two third of them needed morphine medication for it. Maternal smoking over ten cigarettes per day aggravated and benzodiazepine use attenuated NAS. An infant s highest urinary norbuprenorphine concentration during their first 3 days of life correlated with the duration of morphine treatment. The average length of infant s hospital stay was 25 days.

Quantification problems in the design of forest policy programs.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Private and municipal forests and the forestry planning system in Japan - trends and problems after World War II.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Optimisation problems in wireless sensor networks

This thesis studies optimisation problems related to modern large-scale distributed systems, such as wireless sensor networks and wireless ad-hoc networks. The concrete tasks that we use as motivating examples are the following: (i) maximising the lifetime of a battery-powered wireless sensor network, (ii) maximising the capacity of a wireless communication network, and (iii) minimising the number of sensors in a surveillance application. A sensor node consumes energy both when it is transmitting or forwarding data, and when it is performing measurements. Hence task (i), lifetime maximisation, can be approached from two different perspectives. First, we can seek for optimal data flows that make the most out of the energy resources available in the network; such optimisation problems are examples of so-called max-min linear programs. Second, we can conserve energy by putting redundant sensors into sleep mode; we arrive at the sleep scheduling problem, in which the objective is to find an optimal schedule that determines when each sensor node is asleep and when it is awake. In a wireless network simultaneous radio transmissions may interfere with each other. Task (ii), capacity maximisation, therefore gives rise to another scheduling problem, the activity scheduling problem, in which the objective is to find a minimum-length conflict-free schedule that satisfies the data transmission requirements of all wireless communication links. Task (iii), minimising the number of sensors, is related to the classical graph problem of finding a minimum dominating set. However, if we are not only interested in detecting an intruder but also locating the intruder, it is not sufficient to solve the dominating set problem; formulations such as minimum-size identifying codes and locating–dominating codes are more appropriate. This thesis presents approximation algorithms for each of these optimisation problems, i.e., for max-min linear programs, sleep scheduling, activity scheduling, identifying codes, and locating–dominating codes. Two complementary approaches are taken. The main focus is on local algorithms, which are constant-time distributed algorithms. The contributions include local approximation algorithms for max-min linear programs, sleep scheduling, and activity scheduling. In the case of max-min linear programs, tight upper and lower bounds are proved for the best possible approximation ratio that can be achieved by any local algorithm. The second approach is the study of centralised polynomial-time algorithms in local graphs – these are geometric graphs whose structure exhibits spatial locality. Among other contributions, it is shown that while identifying codes and locating–dominating codes are hard to approximate in general graphs, they admit a polynomial-time approximation scheme in local graphs.

Attitudes towards suicide among Master’s degree students: a cross-cultural comparison between China and Finland

Attitudes towards suicide among Master’s degree students in Chang Sha (China) and Helsinki (Finland) were compared in order to explore possible cross-cultural differences. The sample included 206 Master’s degree students, 101 Chinese and 105 Finnish. Data were collected using the 30-item Multi-Attitudes Suicide Tendency Scale (MAST) and a demographic information form. According to the results, both Chinese and Finnish students held positive attitudes towards life, they held contradictory attitudes towards suicide, with Finnish students having more permissive and liberal attitudes towards suicide than their Chinese counterparts. In addition, three socio-demographic characteristics, namely religion, family structure, and economic status, associated with attitudes towards suicide among the Chinese Master’s degree students; meanwhile, all socio-demographic characteristics, including gender, religion, major subject, family structure, economic status, and received social support related to attitudes towards suicide among the Finnish Master’s degree students. However, after examining the interaction effect between socio-demographics and cultural backgrounds on attitudes towards suicide, the attitudes of Chinese students were more related to gender, marital status, family economic status, and received social support, whereas Finnish students were more influenced by religion. These findings suggest that culture plays an important role in shaping country-specific differences in attitudes towards suicide and their association with socio-demographic characteristics. Understanding individual attitudes towards suicide could help in intervention to prevent the development of suicidal ideation and in providing appropriate psychological counseling to reduce mental problems. Therefore, these cross-cultural differences may provide indications on how to conduct suicide prevention programs while considering culture-specific contexts.

The German Military Entrepreneur Ernst von Mansfeld and His Conduct of Asymmetrical Warfare in the Thirty Years War

The dissertation examines aspects of asymmetrical warfare in the war-making of the German military entrepreneur Ernst von Mansfeld during his involvement in the Thirty Years War. Due to the nature of the inquiry, which combines history with military-political theory, the methodological approach of the dissertation is interdisciplinary. The theoretical framework used is that of asymmetrical warfare. The primary sources used in the dissertation are mostly political pamphlets and newsletters. Other sources include letters, documents, and contemporaneous chronicles. The secondary sources are divided into two categories, literature on the history of the Thirty Years War and textbooks covering the theory of asymmetrical warfare. The first category includes biographical works on Ernst von Mansfeld, as well as general histories of the Thirty Years War and seventeenth-century warfare. The second category combines military theory and political science. The structure of the dissertation consists of eight lead chapters, including an introduction and conclusion. The introduction covers the theoretical approach and aims of the dissertation, and provides a brief overlook of the sources and previous research on Ernst von Mansfeld and asymmetrical warfare in the Thirty Years War. The second chapter covers aspects of Mansfeld s asymmetrical warfare from the perspective of operational art. The third chapter investigates the illegal and immoral aspects of Mansfeld s war-making. The fourth chapter compares the differing methods by which Mansfeld and his enemies raised and financed their armies. The fifth chapter investigates Mansfeld s involvement in indirect warfare. The sixth chapter presents Mansfeld as an object and an agent of image and information war. The seventh chapter looks into the counter-reactions, which Mansfeld s asymmetrical warfare provoked from his enemies. The eighth chapter offers a conclusion of the findings. The dissertation argues that asymmetrical warfare presented itself in all the aforementioned areas of Mansfeld s conduct during the Thirty Years War. The operational asymmetry arose from the freedom of movement that Mansfeld enjoyed, while his enemies were constrained by the limits of positional warfare. As a non-state operator Mansfeld was also free to flout the rules of seventeenth-century warfare, which his enemies could not do with equal ease. The raising and financing of military forces was another source of asymmetry, because the nature of early seventeenth-century warfare favoured private military entrepreneurs rather than embryonic fiscal-military states. The dissertation also argues that other powers fought their own asymmetrical and indirect wars against the Habsburgs through Mansfeld s agency. Image and information were asymmetrical weapons, which were both aimed against Mansfeld and utilized by him. Finally, Mansfeld s asymmetrical threat forced the Habsburgs to adapt to his methods, which ultimately lead to the formation of a subcontracted Imperial Army under the management and leadership of Albrecht von Wallenstein. Therefore Mansfeld s asymmetrical warfare ultimately paved way for the kind of state-monopolized, organised, and symmetrical warfare that has prevailed from 1648 onwards. The conclusion is that Mansfeld s conduct in the Thirty Years War matched the criteria for asymmetrical warfare. While traditional historiography treated Mansfeld as an anomaly in the age of European state formation, his asymmetrical warfare has begun to bear resemblance to the contemporary conflicts, where nation states no longer hold the monopoly of violence.