Bayesian analysis of community dynamics

Elucidating the mechanisms responsible for the patterns of species abundance, diversity, and distribution within and across ecological systems is a fundamental research focus in ecology. Species abundance patterns are shaped in a convoluted way by interplays between inter-/intra-specific interactions, environmental forcing, demographic stochasticity, and dispersal. Comprehensive models and suitable inferential and computational tools for teasing out these different factors are quite limited, even though such tools are critically needed to guide the implementation of management and conservation strategies, the efficacy of which rests on a realistic evaluation of the underlying mechanisms. This is even more so in the prevailing context of concerns over climate change progress and its potential impacts on ecosystems. This thesis utilized the flexible hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework in combination with the computer intensive methods known as Markov chain Monte Carlo, to develop methodologies for identifying and evaluating the factors that control the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. These methodologies were used to analyze data from a range of taxa: macro-moths (Lepidoptera), fish, crustaceans, birds, and rodents. Environmental stochasticity emerged as the most important driver of community dynamics, followed by density dependent regulation; the influence of inter-specific interactions on community-level variances was broadly minor. This thesis contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the structure and dynamics of ecological communities, by showing directly that environmental fluctuations rather than inter-specific competition dominate the dynamics of several systems. This finding emphasizes the need to better understand how species are affected by the environment and acknowledge species differences in their responses to environmental heterogeneity, if we are to effectively model and predict their dynamics (e.g. for management and conservation purposes). The thesis also proposes a model-based approach to integrating the niche and neutral perspectives on community structure and dynamics, making it possible for the relative importance of each category of factors to be evaluated in light of field data.

Topological stability through tame retractions

A smooth map is said to be stable if small perturbations of the map only differ from the original one by a smooth change of coordinates. Smoothly stable maps are generic among the proper maps between given source and target manifolds when the source and target dimensions belong to the so-called nice dimensions, but outside this range of dimensions, smooth maps cannot generally be approximated by stable maps. This leads to the definition of topologically stable maps, where the smooth coordinate changes are replaced with homeomorphisms. The topologically stable maps are generic among proper maps for any dimensions of source and target. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate methods for proving topological stability by constructing extremely tame (E-tame) retractions onto the map in question from one of its smoothly stable unfoldings. In particular, we investigate how to use E-tame retractions from stable unfoldings to find topologically ministable unfoldings for certain weighted homogeneous maps or germs. Our first results are concerned with the construction of E-tame retractions and their relation to topological stability. We study how to construct the E-tame retractions from partial or local information, and these results form our toolbox for the main constructions. In the next chapter we study the group of right-left equivalences leaving a given multigerm f invariant, and show that when the multigerm is finitely determined, the group has a maximal compact subgroup and that the corresponding quotient is contractible. This means, essentially, that the group can be replaced with a compact Lie group of symmetries without much loss of information. We also show how to split the group into a product whose components only depend on the monogerm components of f. In the final chapter we investigate representatives of the E- and Z-series of singularities, discuss their instability and use our tools to construct E-tame retractions for some of them. The construction is based on describing the geometry of the set of points where the map is not smoothly stable, discovering that by using induction and our constructional tools, we already know how to construct local E-tame retractions along the set. The local solutions can then be glued together using our knowledge about the symmetry group of the local germs. We also discuss how to generalize our method to the whole E- and Z- series.

Cryptographic Software Export Controls in the EU

Certain software products employing digital techniques for encryption of data are subject to export controls in the EU Member States pursuant to Community law and relevant laws in the Member States. These controls are agreed globally in the framework of the so-called Wassenaar Arrangement. Wassenaar is an informal non-proliferation regime aimed at promoting international stability and responsibility in transfers of strategic (dual-use) products and technology. This thesis covers provisions of Wassenaar, Community export control laws and export control laws of Finland, Sweden, Germany, France and United Kingdom. This thesis consists of five chapters. The first chapter discusses the ratio of export control laws and the impact they have on global trade. The ratio is originally defence-related - in general to prevent potential adversaries of participating States from having the same tools, and in particular in the case of cryptographic software to enable signals intelligence efforts. Increasingly as the use of cryptography in a civilian context has mushroomed, export restrictions can have negative effects on civilian trade. Information security solutions may also be took weak because of export restrictions on cryptography. The second chapter covers the OECD's Cryptography Policy, which had a significant effect on its member nations' national cryptography policies and legislation. The OECD is a significant organization,because it acts as a meeting forum for most important industrialized nations. The third chapter covers the Wassenaar Arrangement. The Arrangement is covered from the viewpoint of international law and politics. The Wassenaar control list provisions affecting cryptographic software transfers are also covered in detail. Control lists in the EU and in Member States are usually directly copied from Wassenaar control lists. Controls agreed in its framework set only a minimum level for participating States. However, Wassenaar countries can adopt stricter controls. The fourth chapter covers Community export control law. Export controls are viewed in Community law as falling within the domain of Common Commercial Policy pursuant to Article 133 of the EC Treaty. Therefore the Community has exclusive competence in export matters, save where a national measure is authorized by the Community or falls under foreign or security policy derogations established in Community law. The Member States still have a considerable amount of power in the domain of Common Foreign and Security Policy. They are able to maintain national export controls because export control laws are not fully harmonized. This can also have possible detrimental effects on the functioning of internal market and common export policies. In 1995 the EU adopted Dual-Use Regulation 3381/94/EC, which sets common rules for exports in Member States. Provisions of this regulation receive detailed coverage in this chapter. The fifth chapter covers national legislation and export authorization practices in five different Member States - in Finland, Sweden, Germany, France and in United Kingdom. Export control laws of those Member States are covered when the national laws differ from the uniform approach of the Community's acquis communautaire. Keywords: export control, encryption, software, dual-use, license, foreign trade, e-commerce, Internet

Monopolising Names? : The Protection of Geographical Indications in the European Community

Marketing of goods under geographical names has always been common. Aims to prevent abuse have given rise to separate forms of legal protection for geographical indications (GIs) both nationally and internationally. The European Community (EC) has also gradually enacted its own legal regime to protect geographical indications. The legal protection of GIs has traditionally been based on the idea that geographical origin endows a product exclusive qualities and characteristics. In today s world we are able to replicate almost any prod-uct anywhere, including its qualities and characteristics. One would think that this would preclude protec-tion from most geographical names, yet the number of geographical indications seems to be rising. GIs are no longer what they used to be. In the EC it is no longer required that a product is endowed exclusive characteristics by its geographical origin as long as consumers associate the product with a certain geo-graphical origin. This departure from the traditional protection of GIs is based on the premise that a geographical name extends beyond and exists apart from the product and therefore deserves protection itself. The thesis tries to clearly articulate the underlying reasons, justifications, principles and policies behind the protection of GIs in the EC and then scrutinise the scope and shape of the GI system in the light of its own justifications. The essential questions it attempts to aswer are (1) What is the basis and criteria for granting GI rights? (2) What is the scope of protection afforded to GIs? and (3) Are these both justified in the light of the functions and policies underlying granting and protecting of GIs? Despite the differences, the actual functions of GIs are in many ways identical to those of trade marks. Geographical indications have a limited role as source and quality indicators in allowing consumers to make informed and efficient choices in the market place. In the EC this role is undermined by allowing able room and discretion for uses that are arbitrary. Nevertheless, generic GIs are unable to play this role. The traditional basis for justifying legal protection seems implausible in most case. Qualities and charac-teristics are more likely to be related to transportable skill and manufacturing methods than the actual geographical location of production. Geographical indications are also incapable of protecting culture from market-induced changes. Protection against genericness, against any misuse, imitation and evocation as well as against exploiting the reputation of a GI seem to be there to protect the GI itself. Expanding or strengthening the already existing GI protection or using it to protect generic GIs cannot be justified with arguments on terroir or culture. The conclusion of the writer is that GIs themselves merit protection only in extremely rare cases and usually only the source and origin function of GIs should be protected. The approach should not be any different from one taken in trade mark law. GI protection should not be used as a means to mo-nopolise names. At the end of the day, the scope of GI protection is nevertheless a policy issue.

EU Multi-level Governance in the Making - The Community Initiative LEADER+ in Finland and Germany

In order to fully understand the process of European integration it is of paramount importance to consider developments at the sub-national and local level. EU integration scholars shifted their attention to the local level only at the beginning of the 1990s with the concept of multi-level governance (MLG). While MLG is the first concept to scrutinise the position of local levels of public administration and other actors within the EU polity, I perceive it as too optimistic in the degree of influence it ascribes to local levels. Thus, learning from and combining MLG with other concepts, such as structural constructivism, helps to reveal some of the hidden aspects of EU integration and paint a more realistic picture of multi-level interaction. This thesis also answers the call for more case studies in order to conceptualise MLG further. After a critical study of theories and concepts of European integration, above all, MLG, I will analyse sub-national and local government in Finland and Germany. I show how the sub-national level and local governments are embedded in the EU s multi-level structure of governance and how, through EU integration, those levels have been empowered but also how their scope of action has partially decreased. After theoretical and institutional contextualisation, I present the results of my empirical study of the EU s Community Initiative LEADER+. LEADER stands for Liaison Entre Actions de Développement de l'Économie Rurale , and aims at improving the economic conditions in Europe s rural areas. I was interested in how different actors construct and shape EU financed rural development, especially in how local actors organised in so-called local action groups (LAGs) cooperate with other administrative units within the LEADER+ administrative chain. I also examined intra-institutional relations within those groups, in order to find out who are the most influential and powerful actors within them. Empirical data on the Finnish and German LAGs was first gathered through a survey, which was then supplemented and completed by interviewing LAG members, LAG-managers, several civil servants from Finnish and German decision-making and managing authorities and a civil servant from the EU Commission. My main argument is that in both Germany and Finland, the Community Initiative LEADER+ offered a space for multi-level interaction and local-level involvement, a space that on the one hand consists of highly motivated people actively contributing to the improvement of the quality of life and economy in Europe s countryside but which is dependent and also restricted by national administrative practices, implementation approaches and cultures on the other. In Finland, the principle of tri-partition (kolmikantaperiaatte) in organising the executive committees of LAGs is very noticeable. In comparison to Germany, for instance, the representation of public administration in those committees is much more limited due to this principle. Furthermore, the mobilisation of local residents and the bringing together of actors from the local area with different social and institutional backgrounds to become an active part of LEADER+ was more successful in Finland than in Germany. Tri-partition as applied in Finland should serve as a model for similar policies in other EU member states. EU integration changed the formal and informal inter-institutional relations linking the different levels of government. The third sector including non-governmental institutions and interest groups gained access to policy-making processes and increasingly interact with government institutions at all levels of public administration. These developments do not necessarily result in the empowering of the local level.

The community of medium-sized carnivores: the interactions between species, habitats and rabies

The composition of the carnivore community influences the different forms of inter-specific interactions. Furthermore, inter-specific interactions of carnivores have important implications for intra-guild competition, epidemiology and strategies of species-specific population management. Zoonooses, such as rabies, are diseases that can be transmitted from wildlife to people. Knowing the ecological characteristics of the species helps us to choose the right preventive actions and to time them accurately. In this thesis, I have studied how raccoon dogs Nyctereutes procyonoides, European badgers Meles meles, red foxes Vulpes vulpes and domestic cats Felis silvestris catus act as members of carnivore community, and how these interactions relate to the transmission risk of rabies. In the study area, these species form a community of medium-sized and rather generalist predators. They live in the same areas, in spatially and temporally overlapping home ranges and use the same habitats and dens and even have similar diets. However, there is no direct evidence of competition. Shared dens point to good tolerance of other species. Numerous observations of animals moving in each other’s proximity give similar clues. However, overlapping home ranges and similar habitat preferences lead to frequent inter-specific contacts, which increase the risk of possible rabies transmission. Also, the new insight of habitat use gained by this study illustrates the similar favouring of deciduous forests and fields by these sympatric medium-sized carnivores, creating a basis for contact zones, i.e. risky habitats for rabies transmission and spread. This study is so far the only simultaneous radio tracking study of raccoon dogs, badgers, foxes and cats. These results give new insight of the interactions in the carnivore community, as well as of the behaviour of each individual species. Also, these results have significant implications for the planning of rabies control. In order to reach viable management decisions, not only one or two species should be taken into consideration, but the whole community. In particular, this changes the perspective to inter-specific contacts, animal densities, densities of individuals susceptible to diseases and the magnitude of preventive actions. Rabies should be considered as a multi-vector disease, at least in Finland and the Baltic states. It is of interest for disease management to be able to model an epizootic with local parameters to reflect the real situation and also to suite best the local management needs.

Ecological impacts of Phlebiopsis gigantea biocontrol treatment against Heterobasidion spp. as revealed by fungal community profiling and population analyses

Wood decay fungi belonging to the species complex Heterobasidion annosum sensu lato are among the most common and economically important species causing root rot and stem decay in conifers of the northern temperate regions. New infections by these pathogens can be suppressed by tree stump treatments using chemical or biological control agents. In Finland, the corticiaceous fungus Phlebiopsis gigantea has been formulated into a commercial biocontrol agent called Rotstop (Verdera Ltd.). This thesis addresses the ecological impacts of Rotstop biocontrol treatment on the mycoflora of conifer stumps. Locally, fungal communities within Rotstop-treated and untreated stumps were analyzed using a novel method based on DGGE profiling of small subunit ribosomal DNA fragments amplified directly from wood samples. Population analyses for P. gigantea and H. annosum s.l. were conducted to evaluate possible risks associated with local and/or global distribution of the Rotstop strain. Based on molecular community profiling by DGGE, we detected a few individual wood-inhabiting fungal species (OTUs) that seemed to have suffered or benefited from the Rotstop biocontrol treatment. The DGGE analyses also revealed fungal diversity not retrieved by cultivation and some fungal sequence types untypical for decomposing conifer wood. However, statistical analysis of DGGE community profiles obtained from Rotstop-treated and untreated conifer stumps revealed that the Rotstop treatment had not caused a statistically significant reduction in the species diversity of wood-inhabiting fungi within our experimental forest plots. Locally, ISSR genotyping of cultured P. gigantea strains showed that the Rotstop biocontrol strain was capable of surviving up to six years within treated Norway spruce stumps, while in Scots pine stumps it was sooner replaced by successor fungal species. In addition, the spread of resident P. gigantea strains into Rotstop-treated forest stands seemed effective in preventing the formation of genetically monomorphic populations in the short run. On a global scale, we detected a considerable level of genetic differentiation between the interfertile European and North American populations of P. gigantea. These results strongly suggest that local biocontrol strains should be used in order to prevent global spread of P. gigantea and hybrid formation between geographically isolated populations. The population analysis for H. annosum s.l. revealed a collection of Chinese fungal strains that showed a high degree of laboratory fertility with three different allopatric H. annosum s.l. taxa. However, based on the molecular markers, the Chinese strains could be clearly affiliated with the H. parviporum taxonomical cluster, which thus appears to have a continuous distribution range from Europe through southern Siberia to northern China. Keywords: Rotstop, wood decay, DGGE, ISSR fingerprinting, ribosomal DNA

The role of productivity in the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of predator-prey interaction

Productivity is predicted to drive the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of predator-prey interaction through changes in resource allocation between different traits. However, resources are seldom constantly available and thus temporal variation in productivity could have considerable effect on the species' potential to evolve. To study this, three long-term microbial laboratory experiments were established where Serratia marcescens prey bacteria was exposed to predation of protist Tetrahymena thermophila in different prey resource environments. The consequences of prey resource availability for the ecological properties of the predator-prey system, such as trophic dynamics, stability, and virulence, were determined. The evolutionary changes in species traits and prey genetic diversity were measured. The prey defence evolved stronger in high productivity environment. Increased allocation to defence incurred cost in terms of reduced prey resource use ability, which probably constrained prey evolution by increasing the effect of resource competition. However, the magnitude of this trade-off diminished when measured in high resource concentrations. Predation selected for white, non-pigmented, highly defensive prey clones that produced predation resistant biofilm. The biofilm defence was also potentially accompanied with cytotoxicity for predators and could have been traded off with high motility. Evidence for the evolution of predators was also found in one experiment suggesting that co-evolutionary dynamics could affect the evolution and ecology of predator-prey interaction. Temporal variation in resource availability increased variation in predator densities leading to temporally fluctuating selection for prey defences and resource use ability. Temporal variation in resource availability was also able to constrain prey evolution when the allocation to defence incurred high cost. However, when the magnitude of prey trade-off was small and the resource turnover was periodically high, temporal variation facilitated the formation of predator resistant biofilm. The evolution of prey defence constrained the transfer of energy from basal to higher trophic levels, decreasing the strength of top-down regulation on prey community. Predation and temporal variation in productivity decreased the stability of populations and prey traits in general. However, predation-induced destabilization was less pronounced in the high productivity environment where the evolution of prey defence was stronger. In addition, evolution of prey defence weakened the environmental variation induced destabilization of predator population dynamics. Moreover, protozoan predation decreased the S. marcescens virulence in the insect host moth (Parasemia plantaginis) suggesting that species interactions outside the context of host-pathogen relationship could be important indirect drivers for the evolution of pathogenesis. This thesis demonstrates that rapid evolution can affect various ecological properties of predator-prey interaction. The effect of evolution on the ecological dynamics depended on the productivity of the environment, being most evident in the constant environments with high productivity.

Ecological communities in variable environments : dynamics and diversity under coloured environmental stochasticity

While environmental variation is an ubiquitous phenomenon in the natural world which has for long been appreciated by the scientific community recent changes in global climatic conditions have begun to raise consciousness about the economical, political and sociological ramifications of global climate change. Climate warming has already resulted in documented changes in ecosystem functioning, with direct repercussions on ecosystem services. While predicting the influence of ecosystem changes on vital ecosystem services can be extremely difficult, knowledge of the organisation of ecological interactions within natural communities can help us better understand climate driven changes in ecosystems. The role of environmental variation as an agent mediating population extinctions is likely to become increasingly important in the future. In previous studies population extinction risk in stochastic environmental conditions has been tied to an interaction between population density dependence and the temporal autocorrelation of environmental fluctuations. When populations interact with each other, forming ecological communities, the response of such species assemblages to environmental stochasticity can depend, e.g., on trophic structure in the food web and the similarity in species-specific responses to environmental conditions. The results presented in this thesis indicate that variation in the correlation structure between species-specific environmental responses (environmental correlation) can have important qualitative and quantitative effects on community persistence and biomass stability in autocorrelated (coloured) environments. In addition, reddened environmental stochasticity and ecological drift processes (such as demographic stochasticity and dispersal limitation) have important implications for patterns in species relative abundances and community dynamics over time and space. Our understanding of patterns in biodiversity at local and global scale can be enhanced by considering the relevance of different drift processes for community organisation and dynamics. Although the results laid out in this thesis are based on mathematical simulation models, they can be valuable in planning effective empirical studies as well as in interpreting existing empirical results. Most of the metrics considered here are directly applicable to empirical data.

Species-based and community-level approaches to conservation prioritization

One major reason for the global decline of biodiversity is habitat loss and fragmentation. Conservation areas can be designed to reduce biodiversity loss, but as resources are limited, conservation efforts need to be prioritized in order to achieve best possible outcomes. The field of systematic conservation planning developed as a response to opportunistic approaches to conservation that often resulted in biased representation of biological diversity. The last two decades have seen the development of increasingly sophisticated methods that account for information about biodiversity conservation goals (benefits), economical considerations (costs) and socio-political constraints. In this thesis I focus on two general topics related to systematic conservation planning. First, I address two aspects of the question about how biodiversity features should be valued. (i) I investigate the extremely important but often neglected issue of differential prioritization of species for conservation. Species prioritization can be based on various criteria, and is always goal-dependent, but can also be implemented in a scientifically more rigorous way than what is the usual practice. (ii) I introduce a novel framework for conservation prioritization, which is based on continuous benefit functions that convert increasing levels of biodiversity feature representation to increasing conservation value using the principle that more is better. Traditional target-based systematic conservation planning is a special case of this approach, in which a step function is used for the benefit function. We have further expanded the benefit function framework for area prioritization to address issues such as protected area size and habitat vulnerability. In the second part of the thesis I address the application of community level modelling strategies to conservation prioritization. One of the most serious issues in systematic conservation planning currently is not the deficiency of methodology for selection and design, but simply the lack of data. Community level modelling offers a surrogate strategy that makes conservation planning more feasible in data poor regions. We have reviewed the available community-level approaches to conservation planning. These range from simplistic classification techniques to sophisticated modelling and selection strategies. We have also developed a general and novel community level approach to conservation prioritization that significantly improves on methods that were available before. This thesis introduces further degrees of realism into conservation planning methodology. The benefit function -based conservation prioritization framework largely circumvents the problematic phase of target setting, and allowing for trade-offs between species representation provides a more flexible and hopefully more attractive approach to conservation practitioners. The community-level approach seems highly promising and should prove valuable for conservation planning especially in data poor regions. Future work should focus on integrating prioritization methods to deal with multiple aspects in combination influencing the prioritization process, and further testing and refining the community level strategies using real, large datasets.

Spatial ecology of an oak-associated herbivore community : A metacommunity of herbivores

Habitat fragmentation is currently affecting many species throughout the world. As a consequence, an increasing number of species are structured as metapopulations, i.e. as local populations connected by dispersal. While excellent studies of metapopulations have accumulated over the past 20 years, the focus has recently shifted from single species to studies of multiple species. This has created the concept of metacommunities, where local communities are connected by the dispersal of one or several of their member species. To understand this higher level of organisation, we need to address not only the properties of single species, but also establish the importance of interspecific interactions. However, studies of metacommunities are so far heavily biased towards laboratory-based systems, and empirical data from natural systems are urgently needed. My thesis focuses on a metacommunity of insect herbivores on the pedunculate oak Quercus robur a tree species known for its high diversity of host-specific insects. Taking advantage of the amenability of this system to both observational and experimental studies, I quantify and compare the importance of local and regional factors in structuring herbivore communities. Most importantly, I contrast the impact of direct and indirect competition, host plant genotype and local adaptation (i.e. local factors) to that of regional processes (as reflected by the spatial context of the local community). As a key approach, I use general theory to generate testable hypotheses, controlled experiments to establish causal relations, and observational data to validate the role played by the pinpointed processes in nature. As the central outcome of my thesis, I am able to relegate local forces to a secondary role in structuring oak-based insect communities. While controlled experiments show that direct competition does occur among both conspecifics and heterospecifics, that indirect interactions can be mediated by both the host plant and the parasitoids, and that host plant genotype may affect local adaptation, the size of these effects is much smaller than that of spatial context. Hence, I conclude that dispersal between habitat patches plays a prime role in structuring the insect community, and that the distribution and abundance of the target species can only be understood in a spatial framework. By extension, I suggest that the majority of herbivore communities are dependent on the spatial structure of their landscape and urge fellow ecologists working on other herbivore systems to either support or refute my generalization.