Generalised regression estimation for domain class frequencies

This study examines the properties of Generalised Regression (GREG) estimators for domain class frequencies and proportions. The family of GREG estimators forms the class of design-based model-assisted estimators. All GREG estimators utilise auxiliary information via modelling. The classic GREG estimator with a linear fixed effects assisting model (GREG-lin) is one example. But when estimating class frequencies, the study variable is binary or polytomous. Therefore logistic-type assisting models (e.g. logistic or probit model) should be preferred over the linear one. However, other GREG estimators than GREG-lin are rarely used, and knowledge about their properties is limited. This study examines the properties of L-GREG estimators, which are GREG estimators with fixed-effects logistic-type models. Three research questions are addressed. First, I study whether and when L-GREG estimators are more accurate than GREG-lin. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo experiments which cover both equal and unequal probability sampling designs and a wide variety of model formulations show that in standard situations, the difference between L-GREG and GREG-lin is small. But in the case of a strong assisting model, two interesting situations arise: if the domain sample size is reasonably large, L-GREG is more accurate than GREG-lin, and if the domain sample size is very small, estimation of assisting model parameters may be inaccurate, resulting in bias for L-GREG. Second, I study variance estimation for the L-GREG estimators. The standard variance estimator (S) for all GREG estimators resembles the Sen-Yates-Grundy variance estimator, but it is a double sum of prediction errors, not of the observed values of the study variable. Monte Carlo experiments show that S underestimates the variance of L-GREG especially if the domain sample size is minor, or if the assisting model is strong. Third, since the standard variance estimator S often fails for the L-GREG estimators, I propose a new augmented variance estimator (A). The difference between S and the new estimator A is that the latter takes into account the difference between the sample fit model and the census fit model. In Monte Carlo experiments, the new estimator A outperformed the standard estimator S in terms of bias, root mean square error and coverage rate. Thus the new estimator provides a good alternative to the standard estimator.

Good Lives, Hidden Miseries : An Ethnography of Uncertainty in a Finnish Village

This is an ethnographic study, in the field of medical anthropology, of village life among farmers in southwest Finland. It is based on 12 months of field work conducted 2002-2003 in a coastal village. The study discusses how social and cultural change affects the life of farmers, how they experience it and how they act in order to deal with the it. Using social suffering as a methodological approach the study seeks to investigate how change is related to lived experiences, idioms of distress, and narratives. Its aim has been to draw a locally specific picture of what matters are at stake in the local moral world that these farmers inhabit, and how they emerge as creative actors within it. A central assumption made about change is that it is two-fold; both a constructive force which gives birth to something new, and also a process that brings about uncertainty regarding the future. Uncertainty is understood as an existential condition of human life that demands a response, both causing suffering and transforming it. The possibility for positive outcomes in the future enables one to understand this small suffering of everyday life both as a consequence of social change, which fragments and destroys, and as an answer to it - as something that is positively meaningful. Suffering is seen to engage individuals to ensure continuity, in spite of the odds, and to sustain hope regarding the future. When the fieldwork was initiated Finland had been a member of the European Union for seven years and farmers felt it had substantially impacted on their working conditions. They complained about the restrictions placed on their autonomy and that their knowledge was neither recognised, nor respected by the bureaucrats of the EU system. New regulations require them to work in a manner that is morally unacceptable to them and financial insecurity has become more prominent. All these changes indicate the potential loss of the home and of the ability to ensure continuity of the family farm. Although the study initially focused on getting a general picture of working conditions and the nature of farming life, during the course of the fieldwork there was repeated mention of a perceived high prevalence of cancer in the area. This cancer talk is replete with metaphors that reveal cultural meanings tied to the farming life and the core values of autonomy, endurance and permanence. It also forms the basis of a shared identity and a means of delivering a moral message about the fragmentation of the good life; the loss of control; and the invasion of the foreign. This thesis formed part of the research project Expressions of Suffering. Ethnographies of Illness Experiences in Contemporary Finnish Contexts funded by the Academy of Finland. It opens up a vital perspective on the multiplicity and variety of the experience of suffering and that it is particularly through the use of the ethnographic method that these experiences can be brought to light. Keywords: suffering, uncertainty, phenomenology, habitus, agency, cancer, farming

Sukupolvien ongelma : Tutkielmia sukupolven käsitteestä, sukupolvitietoisuudesta ja suurista ikäluokista

The aims of the thesis are (1) to present a systematic evaluation of generation and its relevance as a sociological concept, (2) to reflect on how generational consciousness, i.e. generation as an object of collective identification that has social significance, can emerge and take shape, (3) to analyze empirically the generational experiences and consciousness of one specific generation, namely Finnish baby boomers (b. 1945 1950). The thesis contributes to the discussion on the social (as distinct from its genealogical) meaning of the concept of generation, launched by Karl Mannheim s classic Das Problem der Generationen (1928), in which the central idea is that a certain group of people is bonded together by a shared experience and that this bonding can result in a distinct self-consciousness. The thesis is comprised of six original articles and an extensive summarizing chapter. In the empirical articles, the baby boomers are studied on the basis of nationally representative survey data (N = 2628) and narrative life-story interviews (N = 38). In the article that discusses the connection of generations and social movements, the analysis is based on the member survey of Attac Finland (N = 1096). Three main themes were clarified in the thesis. (1) In the social sense the concept of generation is a modern, problematic, and ultimately a political concept. It served the interests of the intellectuals who developed the concept in the early 20th century and provided them, as an alternative to the concept of social class, a new way of think about social change and progress. The concept of generation is always coupled with the concept of Zeitgeist or some other controversial way of defining what is essential, i.e. what creates generations, in a given culture. Thus generation is, as a product of definition and classification struggles, a contested concept. The concept also clearly implies elitist connotations; the idea of some kind of vanguard (the elite) that represents an entire generation by proclaiming itself as its spokesman automatically creates a counterpart, namely the others in the peer group who are thought to be represented (the masses). (2) Generational consciousness cannot emerge as a result of any kind of automatic process or endogenously; it must be made. There has to be somebody who represents the generation in order for that generation to exist in people s minds and as an object of identification; generational experiences and their meanings must be articulated. Hence, social generations are, in a fundamental manner, discursively constructed. The articulations of generational experiences (speeches, writings, manifests, labels etc.) can be called as the discursive dimension of social generations, and through this notion, how public discourse shapes people s generational consciousness can be seen. Another important element in the process is collective memory, as generational consciousness often takes form only retrospectively. (3) Finnish baby boomers are not a united or homogeneous generation but are divided into many smaller sections with specific generational experiences and consciousnesses. The content of the generational consciousness of the baby boomers is heavily politically charged. A salient dividing line inside the age group is formed by individual attitudes towards so-called 1960s radicalism. Identification with the 1960s generation functions today as a positive self-definition of a certain small leftist elite group, and the values and characteristics usually connected with the idea of the 1960s generation do not represent the whole age group. On the contrary, among some of the members of the baby boomers, the generational identification is still directed by the experience of how traditional values were disgraced in the 1960s. As objects of identification, the neutral term baby boomers and the charged 1960s generation are totally different things, and therefore they should not be used as synonyms. Although the significance of the group of the 1960s generation is often overestimated, they are however special with respect to generational consciousness because they have presented themselves as the voice of the entire generation. Their generational interpretations have spread through the media with the help of certain iconic images of the generation insomuch that 1960s radicalism has become an indirect generational experience for other parts of the baby boom cohort as well.

Unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility: An explanation to the low and time-varying predictive power of implied volatility

The low predictive power of implied volatility in forecasting the subsequently realized volatility is a well-documented empirical puzzle. As suggested by e.g. Feinstein (1989), Jackwerth and Rubinstein (1996), and Bates (1997), we test whether unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility could explain this phenomenon. Our findings show that expectations of infrequently occurring jumps in volatility are indeed priced in implied volatility. This has two important consequences. First, implied volatility is actually expected to exceed realized volatility over long periods of time only to be greatly less than realized volatility during infrequently occurring periods of very high volatility. Second, the slope coefficient in the classic forecasting regression of realized volatility on implied volatility is very sensitive to the discrepancy between ex ante expected and ex post realized jump frequencies. If the in-sample frequency of positive volatility jumps is lower than ex ante assessed by the market, the classic regression test tends to reject the hypothesis of informational efficiency even if markets are informationally effective.

“Empire is a state of mind” – Imagining Eurasia in Russia –

Työssäni tarkastelen venäläistä neo-euraasianistista liikettä ja tapoja joilla liikkeen aktivistit rakentavat Euraasiasta yhtenäistä kokonaisuutta ja imperiumia. Keskeisiä tutkimuskysymyksiäni ovat: Mikä imperiumi on ja mitkä ovat sen keskeisiä motivaatioita ja teemoja? Kuinka imperiumin idea rakentuu tai käsitetään ja tämän voi tulkita? Minkälaisia seurauksia voi tulkita heidän tavallaan Euraasia nähdä olevan? Materiaalina käytän haastatteluja, jotka on kerätty Moskovassa keväällä 2008, ja liikkeen kirjallisia tuotoksia (lehdet ja Internet -sivut). Neo-euraasianistisella liikkeellä tarkoitan tässä työssä Kansainvälistä Euraasianistista liikettä (Meždunarodnoe Evrazijskoe Dviženie) ja sen alahaaraa Euraasianistista Nuorisoliittoa (Evrazijskij Sojuz Molodëži). Liike perustettiin virallisesti 2003, mutta rakentaa vahvasti historiallista yhteyttä 1930 -luvun klassiseen eurasianismiin. Tämän lisäksi sen diskurssissa on paljon neuvostoliittolaisia, fasistisia, uuskonservatiivisia ja nationalistisia piirteitä. Liikkeen johtohahmo on filosofi-geopoliitikko Alexandr Dugin. Työn tausta-ajatuksena minua kiinnostaa etenkin nk. älymystön tai intelligenttien vaikutus nationalismiin tai sosiaalisia ryhmiä määrittelevien diskurssien kehitykseen ja muutokseen.Tarkastelen materiaalia diskurssianalyyttisesta näkökulmasta. Näen diskurssianalyysin sen tutkimisena, miten sosiaalista todellisuutta tuotetaan erilaisissa sosiaalisissa käytännöissä. Samalla näiden diskurssien tutkiminen, foucautlaisen perinteen myötä, tarkastelee kriittisesti niiden tuottamia (aktualisoituneita sekä potentiaalisia) valtasuhteita. Käytän työssäni myös Benedict Andersonin kuvitellun yhteisön (imagined communities) käsitettä, joka auttaa hahmottamaan tapaa, jolla tutkimuskohteeni rakentavat imperiumia yhteisönä. Aktivistien puheessa imperiumi (imperiâ) tulee esiin pääasiallisesti positiivisesti ja ”heidän omanaan,” kun taas termi imperialismi (imperializm) pääosin negatiivisena, liittyen etenkin keskeisenä vihollisena pidettyihin Yhdysvaltoihin. Esiin nousee monta toisiinsa liittyvää teemaa, jotka jaottelen viideksi pääteemaksi. Näistä tarkastelen lähemmin imperiumia ”kaikkien kansojen hyväntekijänä (poliittinen puoli)”, ulkoisen voiman lähteenä (historiallis-geopoliittinen puoli) sekä kollektiivisen subjektin luojana (imperialistis-nationalistinen puoli). Pyrin kontekstualisoimaan diskurssin ja tarkastelemaan tapoja, joilla se ammentaa motiiveja myös historiallis-kulttuurisista tavoista hahmottaa aluetta ja sen asukkaita. Käsittelen myös kansan, kansakunnan, etnoksen ja nationalismin käsitteitä ja sitä, miten ne nousevat neo-eurasianistisessa diskursissa esiin. Imperiaalisen nationalismin (imperskij nacionalizm) käsite auttaa ymmärtämään niitä tapoja, jolla liike tekee sekä pesäeroa nationalismiin että samalla hyödyntää monia nationalistisen diskurssin perusteemoja. Eräs liikkeen diskurssin keskeisistä eroista niin sanottuun nationalismin valtavirtaan on ”kansakunnan (naciâ)” käsitteen vahva negatiivinen konnotaatio. Sen vastakohtana esiin nostetaan vahvasti kansan (narod) käsite. Samalla kuitenkin etnisen venäläisen (russkij) käsitettä käytetään tavallista laajemmin ja kattavammin kuin tavallisesti, ja ennen kaikkea Venäjä nousee imperiumin keskeisimmäksi tekijäksi. Euraasialaiseen imperiumiin liitetyistä positiivistista mielikuvista käsittelen tarkemmin monikansallisuuden ja kansojen kodin ideaa, joka nousee mielestäni huomattavaksi retoriseksi taustaksi kaikessa materiaalissa. Tähän liittyy vahvasti myös saman teeman sivujuonne, eli imperiumin ”vapauttava” rooli. Tulkitsen, että liikkeen imperiumi -diskurssilla on instrumentaalinen luonne: se legitimoi aktivistien vaatimuksia varsinkin entisen Neuvostoliiton alueen suhteen. ”Euraasialaisen kansan” ajatus toimii mahdollisena Euraasiaa yhteisenä tekijänä ”Neuvostokansan” tilalla. Sen taustalla materiaalistani päätellen siintävät kuitenkin enemmänkin Venäjä ja venäläis -spesifit vaateet kuin koko Euraasia. Pohdin myös kansakunnan (nation) hyljeksimisen syitä ja käsitteen sopivuutta Venäjälle, kuten myös venäläisyyden käsitteiden kerrostuneisuutta. Kokonaisuudessaan imperiumi tuli esiin abstraktina, utopistisena ja ”totaalisena” kokonaisuutena.

Levosimendaanin vaikutusmekanismi ja nykyinen merkitys sydämen vajaatoiminnan hoidossa

Sydämen vajaatoiminta on erilaisista sydän- ja verisuonisairauksista aiheutuva monimuotoinen oireyhtymä, johon sairastuneiden ja kuolleiden potilaiden määrä on yhä suuri. Sen patofysiologiaan voi kuulua muun muassa sympaattisen hermoston ja reniini-angiotensiini-aldosteroni–järjestelmän aktiivisuutta, huonosti supistuva vasen kammio, sydämen uudelleenmuokkautumista, muutoksia [Ca2+]i:n säätelyssä, kardiomyosyyttien apoptoosia sekä systeeminen tulehdustila. Johonkin osaan sairauden patofysiologiasta eivät nykyiset lääkehoidot riittävästi vaikuta. Klassiset inotroopit lisäävät sydämen supistusvireyttä kasvattamalla solunsisäistä Ca2+-pitoisuutta, mutta ne lisäävät rytmihäiriöriskiä, sydämen hapenkulutusta sekä heikentävät ennustetta. Levosimendaani, kalsiumherkistäjä, lisää sydämen supistusvoimaa [Ca2+]i:ta kohottamatta herkistämällä sydänlihaksen kalsiumin vaikutuksille. Lisäksi levosimendaani avaa sarkolemmaalisia ja mitokondriaalisia K+-kanavia, jotka välittävät vasodilataatiota ja kardioprotektiota. Suurilla annoksilla levosimendaani on selektiivinen PDE3-estäjä. Levosimendaania suositellaan äkillisesti pahentuneen sydämen vajaatoiminnan hoitoon, mutta muitakin lupaavia indikaatioita sille on keksitty. Esimerkiksi kroonisesti annosteltu oraalinen levosimendaani on suojannut kardiovaskulaarijärjestelmää ja parantanut selviytymistä in vivo. Erikoistyössä selvitettiin kroonisesti annostellun oraalisen levosimendaanin, valsartaanin ja näiden kombinaatioterapian vaikutuksia selviytymiseen, verenpaineeseen sekä sydämen hypertrofioitumiseen Dahlin suolaherkillä (Dahl/Rapp) rotilla. Levosimendaanin suojavaikutus ilmeni vähäisempänä kuolleisuutena, mutta ero ei ollut tilastollisesti merkitsevä kontrolliryhmään nähden. Kombinaatioterapia suojasi rottia kardiovaskulaarikuolleisuudelta ja vähensi todennäköisesti verenpaineesta riippuvaisesti sydämen hypertofioitumista niin sydän/kehonpaino–suhteen kuin ultraäänitutkimuksenkin perusteella arvioituna paremmin kuin kumpikaan lääke monoterapiana. Lääkekombinaatio alensi additiivisesti hypertensiota kaikissa mittauspisteissä. Sydämen systolista toimintaa levosimendaani kohensi vain vähäisesti. Dahl/Rapp-rotille kehittyikin pääosin hypertension indusoimaa diastolista sydämen vajaatoimintaa kohonneen IVRT-arvon perusteella. Levosimendaani sekä monoterapiana että kombinaatioterapiana valsartaanin kanssa vähensi sydämen diastolista vajaatoimintaa.

On the Modal Content of A Posteriori Necessities

This paper challenges the Kripkean interpretation of a posteriori necessities. It will be demonstrated, by an analysis of classic examples, that the modal content of supposed a posteriori necessities is more complicated than the Kripkean line suggests. We will see that further research is needed concerning the a priori principles underlying all a posteriori necessities. In the course of this analysis it will emerge that the modal content of a posteriori necessities can be best described in terms of a Finean conception of modality – by giving essences priority over modality. The upshot of this is that we might be able to establish the necessity of certain supposed a posteriori necessities by a priori means.

FinnWordNet - WordNet på finska via översättning

FinnWordNet is a WordNet for Finnish that conforms to the framework given in Fellbaum (1998) and Vossen (ed.) (1998). FinnWordNet is open source and currently contains 117,000 synsets. A classic WordNet consists of synsets, or sets of partial synonyms whose shared meaning is described and exemplified by a gloss, a common part of speech and a hyperonym. Synsets in a WordNet are arranged in hierarchical partial orderings according to semantic relations like hyponymy/hyperonymy. Together the gloss, part of speech and hyperonym fix the meaning of a word and constrain the possible translations of a word in a given synset. The Finnish group has opted for translating Princeton WordNet 3.0 synsets wholesale into Finnish by professional translators, because the translation process can be controlled with regard to quality, coverage, cost and speed of translation. The project was financed by FIN-CLARIN at the University of Helsinki. According to our preliminary evaluation, the translation process was diligent and the quality is on a par with the original Princeton WordNet.