Spatial variation of climate and the impact of disturbances on local climate and forest recovery in northern Finland

The structure and function of northern ecosystems are strongly influenced by climate change and variability and by human-induced disturbances. The projected global change is likely to have a pronounced effect on the distribution and productivity of different species, generating large changes in the equilibrium at the tree-line. In turn, movement of the tree-line and the redistribution of species produce feedback to both the local and the regional climate. This research was initiated with the objective of examining the influence of natural conditions on the small-scale spatial variation of climate in Finnish Lapland, and to study the interaction and feedback mechanisms in the climate-disturbances-vegetation system near the climatological border of boreal forest. The high (1 km) resolution spatial variation of climate parameters over northern Finland was determined by applying the Kriging interpolation method that takes into account the effect of external forcing variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, elevation, sea and lake coverage. Of all the natural factors shaping the climate, the geographical position, local topography and altitude proved to be the determining ones. Spatial analyses of temperature- and precipitation-derived parameters based on a 30-year dataset (1971-2000) provide a detailed description of the local climate. Maps of the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, the frost-free period and the growing season indicate that the most favourable thermal conditions exist in the south-western part of Lapland, around large water bodies and in the Kemijoki basin, while the coldest regions are in highland and fell Lapland. The distribution of precipitation is predominantly longitudinally dependent but with the definite influence of local features. The impact of human-induced disturbances, i.e., forest fires, on local climate and its implication for forest recovery near the northern timberline was evaluated in the Tuntsa area of eastern Lapland, damaged by a widespread forest fire in 1960 and suffering repeatedly-failed vegetation recovery since that. Direct measurements of the local climate and simulated heat and water fluxes indicated the development of a more severe climate and physical conditions on the fire-disturbed site. Removal of the original, predominantly Norway spruce and downy birch vegetation and its substitution by tundra vegetation has generated increased wind velocity and reduced snow accumulation, associated with a large variation in soil temperature and moisture and deep soil frost. The changed structural parameters of the canopy have determined changes in energy fluxes by reducing the latter over the tundra vegetation. The altered surface and soil conditions, as well as the evolved severe local climate, have negatively affected seedling growth and survival, leading to more unfavourable conditions for the reproduction of boreal vegetation and thereby causing deviations in the regional position of the timberline. However it should be noted that other factors, such as an inadequate seed source or seedbed, the poor quality of the soil and the intensive logging of damaged trees could also exacerbate the poor tree regeneration. In spite of the failed forest recovery at Tunsta, the position and composition of the timberline and tree-line in Finnish Lapland may also benefit from present and future changes in climate. The already-observed and the projected increase in temperature, the prolonged growing season, as well as changes in the precipitation regime foster tree growth and new regeneration, resulting in an advance of the timberline and tree-line northward and upward. This shift in the distribution of vegetation might be decelerated or even halted by local topoclimatic conditions and by the expected increase in the frequency of disturbances.

Elements of Volatility at High Frequency

Volatility is central in options pricing and risk management. It reflects the uncertainty of investors and the inherent instability of the economy. Time series methods are among the most widely applied scientific methods to analyze and predict volatility. Very frequently sampled data contain much valuable information about the different elements of volatility and may ultimately reveal the reasons for time varying volatility. The use of such ultra-high-frequency data is common to all three essays of the dissertation. The dissertation belongs to the field of financial econometrics. The first essay uses wavelet methods to study the time-varying behavior of scaling laws and long-memory in the five-minute volatility series of Nokia on the Helsinki Stock Exchange around the burst of the IT-bubble. The essay is motivated by earlier findings which suggest that different scaling laws may apply to intraday time-scales and to larger time-scales, implying that the so-called annualized volatility depends on the data sampling frequency. The empirical results confirm the appearance of time varying long-memory and different scaling laws that, for a significant part, can be attributed to investor irrationality and to an intraday volatility periodicity called the New York effect. The findings have potentially important consequences for options pricing and risk management that commonly assume constant memory and scaling. The second essay investigates modelling the duration between trades in stock markets. Durations convoy information about investor intentions and provide an alternative view at volatility. Generalizations of standard autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models are developed to meet needs observed in previous applications of the standard models. According to the empirical results based on data of actively traded stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and the Helsinki Stock Exchange the proposed generalization clearly outperforms the standard models and also performs well in comparison to another recently proposed alternative to the standard models. The distribution used to derive the generalization may also prove valuable in other areas of risk management. The third essay studies empirically the effect of decimalization on volatility and market microstructure noise. Decimalization refers to the change from fractional pricing to decimal pricing and it was carried out on the New York Stock Exchange in January, 2001. The methods used here are more accurate than in the earlier studies and put more weight on market microstructure. The main result is that decimalization decreased observed volatility by reducing noise variance especially for the highly active stocks. The results help risk management and market mechanism designing.

Characterisation and source identification of pollution episodes caused by long-range transported aerosols

Aerosol particles can cause detrimental environmental and health effects. The particles and their precursor gases are emitted from various anthropogenic and natural sources. It is important to know the origin and properties of aerosols to efficiently reduce their harmful effects. The diameter of aerosol particles (Dp) varies between ~0.001 and ~100 μm. Fine particles (PM2.5: Dp < 2.5 μm) are especially interesting because they are the most harmful and can be transported over long distances. The aim of this thesis is to study the impact on air quality by pollution episodes of long-range transported aerosols affecting the composition of the boundary-layer atmosphere in remote and relatively unpolluted regions of the world. The sources and physicochemical properties of aerosols were investigated in detail, based on various measurements (1) in southern Finland during selected long-range transport (LRT) pollution episodes and unpolluted periods and (2) over the Atlantic Ocean between Europe and Antarctica during a voyage. Furthermore, the frequency of LRT pollution episodes of fine particles in southern Finland was investigated over a period of 8 years, using long-term air quality monitoring data. In southern Finland, the annual mean PM2.5 mass concentrations were low but LRT caused high peaks of daily mean concentrations every year. At an urban background site in Helsinki, the updated WHO guideline value (24-h PM2.5 mean 25 μg/m3) was exceeded during 1-7 LRT episodes each year during 1999-2006. The daily mean concentrations varied between 25 and 49 μg/m3 during the episodes, which was 3-6 times higher than the mean concentration in the long term. The in-depth studies of selected LRT episodes in southern Finland revealed that biomass burning in agricultural fields and wildfires, occurring mainly in Eastern Europe, deteriorated air quality on a continental scale. The strongest LRT episodes of fine particles resulted from open biomass-burning fires but the emissions from other anthropogenic sources in Eastern Europe also caused significant LRT episodes. Particle mass and number concentrations increased strongly in the accumulation mode (Dp ~ 0.09-1 μm) during the LRT episodes. However, the concentrations of smaller particles (Dp < 0.09 μm) remained low or even decreased due to the uptake of vapours and molecular clusters by LRT particles. The chemical analysis of individual particles showed that the proportions of several anthropogenic particle types increased (e.g. tar balls, metal oxides/hydroxides, spherical silicate fly ash particles and various calcium-rich particles) in southern Finland during an LRT episode, when aerosols originated from the polluted regions of Eastern Europe and some open biomass-burning smoke was also brought in by LRT. During unpolluted periods when air masses arrived from the north, the proportions of marine aerosols increased. In unpolluted rural regions of southern Finland, both accumulation mode particles and small-sized (Dp ~ 1-3 μm) coarse mode particles originated mostly from LRT. However, the composition of particles was totally different in these size fractions. In both size fractions, strong internal mixing of chemical components was typical for LRT particles. Thus, the aging of particles has significant impacts on their chemical, hygroscopic and optical properties, which can largely alter the environmental and health effects of LRT aerosols. Over the Atlantic Ocean, the individual particle composition of small-sized (Dp ~ 1-3 μm) coarse mode particles was affected by continental aerosol plumes to distances of at least 100-1000 km from the coast (e.g. pollutants from industrialized Europe, desert dust from the Sahara and biomass-burning aerosols near the Gulf of Guinea). The rate of chloride depletion from sea-salt particles was high near the coasts of Europe and Africa when air masses arrived from polluted continental regions. Thus, the LRT of continental aerosols had significant impacts on the composition of the marine boundary-layer atmosphere and seawater. In conclusion, integration of the results obtained using different measurement techniques captured the large spatial and temporal variability of aerosols as observed at terrestrial and marine sites, and assisted in establishing the causal link between land-bound emissions, LRT and air quality.

Maintaining plant species richness by cattle grazing - mesic semi-natural grasslands as focal habitats

Semi-natural grasslands are the most important agricultural areas for biodiversity. The present study investigates the effects of traditional livestock grazing and mowing on plant species richness, the main emphasis being on cattle grazing in mesic semi-natural grasslands. The two reviews provide a thorough assessment of the multifaceted impacts and importance of grazing and mowing management to plant species richness. It is emphasized that livestock grazing and mowing have partially compensated the suppression of major natural disturbances by humans and mitigated the negative effects of eutrophication. This hypothesis has important consequences for nature conservation: A large proportion of European species originally adapted to natural disturbances may be at present dependent on livestock grazing and / or mowing. Furthermore, grazing and mowing are key management methods to mitigate effects of nutrient-enrichment. The species composition and richness in old (continuously grazed), new (grazing restarting 3-8 years ago) and abandoned (over 10 years) pastures differed consistently across a range of spatial scales, and was intermediate in new pastures compared to old and abandoned pastures. In mesic grasslands most plant species were shown to benefit from cattle grazing. Indicator species of biologically valuable grasslands and rare species were more abundant in grazed than in abandoned grasslands. Steep S-SW-facing slopes are the most suitable sites for many grassland plants and should be prioritized in grassland restoration. The proportion of species trait groups benefiting from grazing was higher in mesic semi-natural grasslands than in dry and wet grasslands. Consequently, species trait responses to grazing and the effectiveness of the natural factors limiting plant growth may be intimately linked High plant species richness of traditionally mowed and grazed areas is explained by numerous factors which operate on different spatial scales. Particularly important for maintaining large scale plant species richness are evolutionary and mitigation factors. Grazing and mowing cause a shift towards the conditions that have occurred during the evolutionary history of European plant species by modifying key ecological factors (nutrients, pH and light). The results of this Dissertation suggest that restoration of semi-natural grasslands by private farmers is potentially a useful method to manage biodiversity in the agricultural landscape. However, the quality of management is commonly improper, particularly due to financial constraints. For enhanced success of restoration, management regulations in the agri-environment scheme need to be defined more explicitly and the scheme should be revised to encourage management of biodiversity.

Human genetic variation in the Baltic Sea region: Features of population history and natural selection

In this thesis, the genetic variation of human populations from the Baltic Sea region was studied in order to elucidate population history as well as evolutionary adaptation in this region. The study provided novel understanding of how the complex population level processes of migration, genetic drift, and natural selection have shaped genetic variation in North European populations. Results from genome-wide, mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal analyses suggested that the genetic background of the populations of the Baltic Sea region lies predominantly in Continental Europe, which is consistent with earlier studies and archaeological evidence. The late settlement of Fennoscandia after the Ice Age and the subsequent small population size have led to pronounced genetic drift, especially in Finland and Karelia but also in Sweden, evident especially in genome-wide and Y-chromosomal analyses. Consequently, these populations show striking genetic differentiation, as opposed to much more homogeneous pattern of variation in Central European populations. Additionally, the eastern side of the Baltic Sea was observed to have experienced eastern influence in the genome-wide data as well as in mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal variation – consistent with linguistic connections. However, Slavic influence in the Baltic Sea populations appears minor on genetic level. While the genetic diversity of the Finnish population overall was low, genome-wide and Y-chromosomal results showed pronounced regional differences. The genetic distance between Western and Eastern Finland was larger than for many geographically distant population pairs, and provinces also showed genetic differences. This is probably mainly due to the late settlement of Eastern Finland and local isolation, although differences in ancestral migration waves may contribute to this, too. In contrast, mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal analyses of the contemporary Swedish population revealed a much less pronounced population structure and a fusion of the traces of ancient admixture, genetic drift, and recent immigration. Genome-wide datasets also provide a resource for studying the adaptive evolution of human populations. This study revealed tens of loci with strong signs of recent positive selection in Northern Europe. These results provide interesting targets for future research on evolutionary adaptation, and may be important for understanding the background of disease-causing variants in human populations.

Nitrous oxide emissions from selected natural and managed northern ecosystems

Microbial activity in soils is the main source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere. Nitrous oxide is a strong greenhouse gas in the troposphere and participates in ozone destructive reactions in the stratosphere. The constant increase in the atmospheric concentration, as well as uncertainties in the known sources and sinks of N2O underline the need to better understand the processes and pathways of N2O in terrestrial ecosystems. This study aimed at quantifying N2O emissions from soils in northern Europe and at investigating the processes and pathways of N2O from agricultural and forest ecosystems. Emissions were measured in forest ecosystems, agricultural soils and a landfill, using the soil gradient, chamber and eddy covariance methods. Processes responsible for N2O production, and the pathways of N2O from the soil to the atmosphere, were studied in the laboratory and in the field. These ecosystems were chosen for their potential importance to the national and global budget of N2O. Laboratory experiments with boreal agricultural soils revealed that N2O production increases drastically with soil moisture content, and that the contribution of the nitrification and denitrification processes to N2O emissions depends on soil type. Laboratory study with beech (Fagus sylvatica) seedlings demonstrated that trees can serve as conduits for N2O from the soil to the atmosphere. If this mechanism is important in forest ecosystems, the current emission estimates from forest soils may underestimate the total N2O emissions from forest ecosystems. Further field and laboratory studies are needed to evaluate the importance of this mechanism in forest ecosystems. The emissions of N2O from northern forest ecosystems and a municipal landfill were highly variable in time and space. The emissions of N2O from boreal upland forest soil were among the smallest reported in the world. Despite the low emission rates, the soil gradient method revealed a clear seasonal variation in N2O production. The organic topsoil was responsible for most of the N2O production and consumption in this forest soil. Emissions from the municipal landfill were one to two orders of magnitude higher than those from agricultural soils, which are the most important source of N2O to the atmosphere. Due to their small areal coverage, landfills only contribute minimally to national N2O emissions in Finland. The eddy covariance technique was demonstrated to be useful for measuring ecosystem-scale emissions of N2O in forest and landfill ecosystems. Overall, more measurements and integration between different measurement techniques are needed to capture the large variability in N2O emissions from natural and managed northern ecosystems.

Photobiological studies of Baltic Sea phytoplankton

Phytoplankton ecology and productivity is one of the main branches of contemporary oceanographic research. Research groups in this branch have increasingly started to utilise bio-optical applications. My main research objective was to critically investigate the advantages and deficiencies of the fast repetition rate (FRR) fluorometry for studies of productivity of phytoplankton, and the responses of phytoplankton towards varying environmental stress. Second, I aimed to clarify the applicability of the FRR system to the optical environment of the Baltic Sea. The FRR system offers a highly dynamic tool for studies of phytoplankton photophysiology and productivity both in the field and in a controlled environment. The FRR metrics obtain high-frequency in situ determinations of the light-acclimative and photosynthetic parameters of intact phytoplankton communities. The measurement protocol is relatively easy to use without phases requiring analytical determinations. The most notable application of the FRR system lies in its potential for making primary productivity (PP) estimations. However, the realisation of this scheme is not straightforward. The FRR-PP, based on the photosynthetic electron flow (PEF) rate, are linearly related to the photosynthetic gas exchange (fixation of 14C) PP only in environments where the photosynthesis is light-limited. If the light limitation is not present, as is usually the case in the near-surface layers of the water column, the two PP approaches will deviate. The prompt response of the PEF rate to the short-term variability in the natural light field makes the field comparisons between the PEF-PP and the 14C-PP difficult to interpret, because this variability is averaged out in the 14C-incubations. Furthermore, the FRR based PP models are tuned to closely follow the vertical pattern of the underwater irradiance. Due to the photoacclimational plasticity of phytoplankton, this easily leads to overestimates of water column PP, if precautionary measures are not taken. Natural phytoplankton is subject to broad-waveband light. Active non-spectral bio-optical instruments, like the FRR fluorometer, emit light in a relatively narrow waveband, which by its nature does not represent the in situ light field. Thus, the spectrally-dependent parameters provided by the FRR system need to be spectrally scaled to the natural light field of the Baltic Sea. In general, the requirement of spectral scaling in the water bodies under terrestrial impact concerns all light-adaptive parameters provided by any active non-spectral bio-optical technique. The FRR system can be adopted to studies of all phytoplankton that possess efficient light harvesting in the waveband matching the bluish FRR excitation. Although these taxa cover the large bulk of all the phytoplankton taxa, one exception with a pronounced ecological significance is found in the Baltic Sea. The FRR system cannot be used to monitor the photophysiology of the cyanobacterial taxa harvesting light in the yellow-red waveband. These taxa include the ecologically-significant bloom-forming cyanobacterial taxa in the Baltic Sea.

Management of semi-natural grasslands for butterfly and moth communities

This work focuses on the factors affecting species richness, abundance and species composition of butterflies and moths in Finnish semi-natural grasslands, with a special interest in the effects of grazing management. In addition, an aim was set at evaluating the effectiveness of the support for livestock grazing in semi-natural grasslands, which is included in the Finnish agri-environment scheme. In the first field study, butterfly and moth communities in resumed semi-natural pastures were com-pared to old, annually grazed and abandoned previous pastures. Butterfly and moth species compo-sition in restored pastures resembled the compositions observed in old pastures after circa five years of resumed cattle grazing, but diversity of butterflies and moths in resumed pastures remained at a lower level compared with old pastures. None of the butterfly and moth species typical of old pas-tures had become more abundant in restored pastures compared with abandoned pastures. There-fore, it appears that restoration of butterfly and moth communities inhabiting semi-natural grass-lands requires a longer time that was available for monitoring in this study. In the second study, it was shown that local habitat quality has the largest impact on the occurrence and abundance of butterflies and moths compared to the effects of grassland patch area and connec-tivity of the regional grassland network. This emphasizes the importance of current and historical management of semi-natural grasslands on butterfly and moth communities. A positive effect of habitat connectivity was observed on total abundance of the declining butterflies and moths, sug-gesting that these species have strongest populations in well-connected habitat networks. Highest species richness and peak abundance of most individual species of butterflies and moths were generally observed in taller grassland vegetation compared with vascular plants, suggesting a preference towards less intensive management in insects. These differences between plants and their insect herbivores may be understood in the light of both (1) the higher structural diversity of tall vegetation and (2) weaker tolerance of disturbances by herbivorous insects due to their higher trophic level compared to plants. The ecological requirements of all species and species groups inhabiting semi-natural grasslands are probably never met at single restricted sites. Therefore, regional implementation of management to create differently managed areas is imperative for the conservation of different species and species groups dependent on semi-natural grasslands. With limited resources it might be reasonable to focus much of the management efforts in the densest networks of suitable habitat to minimise the risk of extinction of the declining species.