43 resultados para Mark-up pricing
Resumo:
Infertility treatments are relatively easily available in most Western countries today, but the psychological consequences of these high-tech treatments have scarcely been addressed. The purpose of this controlled longitudinal study was to explore the early environment of the infant born by assisted reproductive treatment (ART). We focused on the parents mental well-being, marital relations and experience of parenting. In addition to this, we assessed parent child interaction and parents mental representations of their child after long-standing infertility and several unsuccessful ART attempts. The subjects were infertile couples who achieved a singleton pregnancy by in vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). The control group comprised of spontaneously conceiving couples with singleton pregnancies. ART women showed fewer depressive symptoms than controls during pregnancy and after delivery, but the difference vanished by the end of the child s first year. ART men consistently had lower levels of anxiety symptoms, sleeping difficulties, and social dysfunction than control men. Control women experienced a decrease in dyadic consensus during the child s first year, which did not happen among ART women. After the child was born, ART men reported a higher level of sexual affection compared with control men. Psychic symptoms and stressful life events were differently related to marital relations in ART and control groups. The parenting experiences of ART mothers were in general at a higher level, compared with controls, and they changed in a positive direction during the child s first year. Fathering experiences were at the same level in both groups, and they changed positively in both groups by the end of the child s first year. The parenting experiences of ART mothers and fathers were more resilient to certain child-related stressors than those of control group. Both mothers and fathers with long-term infertility showed more sensitive behaviour with their child in toddler-age than in infancy. Correspondingly, children s cooperation increased. Mothers often mentioned a fear of miscarriage and difficulty in creating representations of the child during pregnancy. Descriptions of the infants were mainly rich, vivid and loaded with positive features. In conclusion, ART parents in general seem to adapt well to the transition to parenthood. Former infertility and ART do not seem to constitute a risk for parents mental health, marital relations or experience of parenting. Even longstanding infertility with several unsuccessful treatment attempts did not create a risk as regards parenting behaviour or parents mental representations of their child. In this group, however, women were found to have fear for losing the child and difficulty in creating representations of the child during pregnancy, which in some cases may indicate need for psychosocial support. Even though our results are encouraging, infertility and infertility treatments are generally considered as a stressful experience. It is a challenge for health authorities to recognize those couples who need professional help to overcome the distressing experiences of infertility and ART.
Resumo:
Purpose: The aim of the present study was to develop and test new digital imaging equipment and methods for diagnosis and follow-up of ocular diseases. Methods: The whole material comprised 398 subjects (469 examined eyes), including 241 patients with melanocytic choroidal tumours, 56 patients with melanocytic iris tumours, 42 patients with diabetes, a 52-year old patient with chronic phase of VKH disease, a 30-year old patient with an old blunt eye injury, and 57 normal healthy subjects. Digital 50° (Topcon TRC 50 IA) and 45° (Canon CR6-45NM) fundus cameras, a new handheld digital colour videocamera for eye examinations (MediTell), a new subtraction method using the Topcon Image Net Program (Topcon corporation, Tokyo, Japan), a new method for digital IRT imaging of the iris we developed, and Zeiss photoslitlamp with a digital camera body were used for digital imaging. Results: Digital 50° red-free imaging had a sensitivity of 97.7% and two-field 45° and 50° colour imaging a sensitivity of 88.9-94%. The specificity of the digital 45°-50° imaging modalities was 98.9-100% versus the reference standard and ungradeable images that were 1.2-1.6%. By using the handheld digital colour video camera only, the optic disc and central fundus located inside 20° from the fovea could be recorded with a sensitivity of 6.9% for detection of at least mild NPDR when compared with the reference standard. Comparative use of digital colour, red-free, and red light imaging showed 85.7% sensitivity, 99% specificity, and 98.2 % exact agreement versus the reference standard in differentiation of small choroidal melanoma from pseudomelanoma. The new subtraction method showed growth in four of 94 melanocytic tumours (4.3%) during a mean ±SD follow-up of 23 ± 11 months. The new digital IRT imaging of the iris showed the sphincter muscle and radial contraction folds of Schwalbe in the pupillary zone and radial structural folds of Schwalbe and circular contraction furrows in the ciliary zone of the iris. The 52-year-old patient with a chronic phase of VKH disease showed extensive atrophy and occasional pigment clumps in the iris stroma, detachment of the ciliary body with severe ocular hypotony, and shallow retinal detachment of the posterior pole in both eyes. Infrared transillumination imaging and fluorescein angiographic findings of the iris showed that IR translucence (p=0.53), complete masking of fluorescence (p=0.69), presence of disorganized vessels (p=0.32), and fluorescein leakage (p=1.0) at the site of the lesion did not differentiate an iris nevus from a melanoma. Conclusions: Digital 50° red-free and two-field 50° or 45° colour imaging were suitable for DR screening, whereas the handheld digital video camera did not fulfill the needs of DR screening. Comparative use of digital colour, red-free and red light imaging was a suitable method in the differentiation of small choroidal melanoma from different pseudomelanomas. The subtraction method may reveal early growth of the melanocytic choroidal tumours. Digital IRT imaging may be used to study changes of the stroma and posterior surface of the iris in various diseases of the uvea. It contributed to the revealment of iris atrophy and serous detachment of the ciliary body with ocular hypotony together with the shallow retinal detachment of the posterior pole as new findings of the chronic phase of VKH disease. Infrared translucence and angiographic findings are useful in differential diagnosis of melanocytic iris tumours, but they cannot be used to determine if the lesion is benign or malignant.
Resumo:
Varttuminen vietnamilaisena Suomessa: 12 vuoden seurantajakso – Vietnamilaisten hyvinvointi ja sosiokulttuurinen sopeutuminen lapsena/nuorena sekä nuorena aikuisena Tämä tutkimus oli määrällinen pitkittäistutkimus lapsena tai nuorena vuosina 1979-1991 Suomeen saapuneiden vietnamilaisten akkulturaatiosta (kulttuurin muutoksista), psyykkisestä hyvinvoinnista ja sosiokulttuurisesta sopeutumisesta. Tutkimukseen osallistui ensimmäisessä vaiheessa (vuonna 1992) 97 satunnaisesti valittua vietnamilaista peruskoululaista ympäri maata, joita verrattin suomalaisiin luokkatovereihin. Seurantavaiheeseen (vuonna 2004) osallistui 59 ensimmäisessä vaiheessa mukana ollutta vietnamilaista, nyt iältään 20 – 31 -vuotiaita. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää mitkä tekijät ennustivat akkulturaation lopputuloksia, samalla huomioiden iän ja ympäristön (kontekstin) vaikutukset psyykkiseen hyvinvointiin ja sosiokulttuuriseen sopeutumiseen. Yksittäiset akkulturaatiodimensiot (kieli, arvot ja identiteetti) osoittautuivat tärkeämmiksi psyykkiselle hyvinvoinnille ja sosiokulttuuriselle sopeutumiselle kuin etniset, kansalliset tai kaksikulttuuriset profiilit, joissa yhdistyivät ao. kieli, arvot ja identiteetti. Identiteettimuutosta tapahtui (etniseen) vietnamilaiseen suuntaan ajan kuluessa, kun taas arvomuutosta tapahtui (kansalliseen) suomalaiseen suuntaan. Sekä suomen että vietnamin kielen taito lisääntyivät ajan myötä, millä oli myönteisiä vaikutuksia sekä psyykkiseen hyvinvointiin että sosiokulttuuriseen sopeutumiseen. Lähtötilanteen psyykkinen hyvinvointi ennusti hyvinvointia (masennuksen puutetta ja itsetuntoa) aikuisena, mutta sosiokulttuurinen sopeutuminen (koulumenestys) lapsena tai nuorena ei ennustanut kouluttautumista aikuisena. Parempi suomen kielen taito ja vähemmän identifioitumista suomalaiseksi aikuisena sekä masentuneisuuden puute ja vähemmän koettua syrjintää lapsena tai nuorena erottelivat psyykkisesti paremmin voivat aikuiset (ei-masentuneet) heistä, jotka olivat masentuneita. Parempaa kouluttautumista aikuisena ennustivat toisaalta vähemmän koettua syrjintää lapsena tai nuorena ja toisaalta aikuisena parempi suomen kielen taito, suurempi kansallisten (suomalaisten) itsenäisyysarvojen kannattaminen, mutta kuitenkin vähemmän identifioitumista suomalaisiin. Koetun syrjinnän merkitys psyykkiselle hyvinvoinnille, erityisesti lapsena tai nuorena, sekä sen pitkäaikaisvaikutukset psyykkiselle hyvinvoinnille ja sosiokulttuuriselle sopeutumiselle aikuisena osoittavat tarpeen puuttua varhain psyykkisiin ongelmiin sekä parantaa etnisten ryhmien välisiä suhteita. Avainsanat: akkulturaatio, psyykkinen hyvinvointi, sosiokultuurinen sopeutuminen, kieli, arvot, identiteetti, vietnamilainen, Suomi, lapset, nuoret, nuoret aikuiset
Resumo:
Changes in alcohol pricing have been documented as inversely associated with changes in consumption and alcohol-related problems. Evidence of the association between price changes and health problems is nevertheless patchy and is based to a large extent on cross-sectional state-level data, or time series of such cross-sectional analyses. Natural experimental studies have been called for. There was a substantial reduction in the price of alcohol in Finland in 2004 due to a reduction in alcohol taxes of one third, on average, and the abolition of duty-free allowances for travellers from the EU. These changes in the Finnish alcohol policy could be considered a natural experiment, which offered a good opportunity to study what happens with regard to alcohol-related problems when prices go down. The present study investigated the effects of this reduction in alcohol prices on (1) alcohol-related and all-cause mortality, and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, (2) alcohol-related morbidity in terms of hospitalisation, (3) socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality, and (4) small-area differences in interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area. Differential trends in alcohol-related mortality prior to the price reduction were also analysed. A variety of population-based register data was used in the study. Time-series intervention analysis modelling was applied to monthly aggregations of deaths and hospitalisation for the period 1996-2006. These and other mortality analyses were carried out for men and women aged 15 years and over. Socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality were assessed on a before/after basis, mortality being followed up in 2001-2003 (before the price reduction) and 2004-2005 (after). Alcohol-related mortality was defined in all the studies on mortality on the basis of information on both underlying and contributory causes of death. Hospitalisation related to alcohol meant that there was a reference to alcohol in the primary diagnosis. Data on interpersonal violence was gathered from 86 administrative small-areas in the Helsinki Metropolitan area and was also assessed on a before/after basis followed up in 2002-2003 and 2004-2005. The statistical methods employed to analyse these data sets included time-series analysis, and Poisson and linear regression. The results of the study indicate that alcohol-related deaths increased substantially among men aged 40-69 years and among women aged 50-69 after the price reduction when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. The increase was mainly attributable to chronic causes, particularly liver diseases. Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased considerably among the-over-69-year-olds. The increase in alcohol-related mortality in absolute terms among the 30-59-year-olds was largest among the unemployed and early-age pensioners, and those with a low level of education, social class or income. The relative differences in change between the education and social class subgroups were small. The employed and those under the age of 35 did not suffer from increased alcohol-related mortality in the two years following the price reduction. The gap between the age and education groups, which was substantial in the 1980s, thus further broadened. With regard to alcohol-related hospitalisation, there was an increase in both chronic and acute causes among men under the age of 70, and among women in the 50-69-year age group when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. Alcohol dependence and other alcohol-related mental and behavioural disorders were the largest category in both the total number of chronic hospitalisation and in the increase. There was no increase in the rate of interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area, and even a decrease in domestic violence. There was a significant relationship between the measures of social disadvantage on the area level and interpersonal violence, although the differences in the effects of the price reduction between the different areas were small. The findings of the present study suggest that that a reduction in alcohol prices may lead to a substantial increase in alcohol-related mortality and morbidity. However, large population group differences were observed regarding responsiveness to the price changes. In particular, the less privileged, such as the unemployed, were most sensitive. In contrast, at least in the Finnish context, the younger generations and the employed do not appear to be adversely affected, and those in the older age groups may even benefit from cheaper alcohol in terms of decreased rates of CVD mortality. The results also suggest that reductions in alcohol prices do not necessarily affect interpersonal violence. The population group differences in the effects of the price changes on alcohol-related harm should be acknowledged, and therefore the policy actions should focus on the population subgroups that are primarily responsive to the price reduction.
Resumo:
This study investigates how the religious community as a socialization context affects the development of young people's religious identity and values, using Finnish Seventh-day Adventism as a context for the case study. The research problem is investigated through the following questions: (1) What aspects support the intergenerational transmission of values and tradition in religious home education? (2) What is the role of social capital and the social networks of the religious community in the religious socialization process? (3) How does the religious composition of the peer group at school (e.g., a denominational school in comparison to a mainstream school) affect these young people s social relations and choices and their religious identity (as challenged versus as reinforced by values at school)? And (4) How do the young people studied negotiate their religious values and religious membership in the diverse social contexts of the society at large? The mixed method study includes both quantitative and qualitative data sets (3 surveys: n=106 young adults, n=100 teenagers, n=55 parents; 2 sets of interviews: n=10 young adults and n=10 teenagers; and fieldwork data from youth summer camps). The results indicate that, in religious home education, the relationship between parents and children, the parental example of a personally meaningful way of life, and encouraging critical thinking in order for young people to make personalized value choices were important factors in socialization. Overall, positive experiences of the religion and the religious community were crucial in providing direction for later choices of values and affiliations. Education that was experienced as either too severe or too permissive was not regarded as a positive influence for accepting similar values and lifestyle choices to those of the parents. Furthermore, the religious community had an important influence on these young people s religious socialization in terms of the commitment to denominational values and lifestyle and in providing them with religious identity and rooting them in the social network of the denomination. The network of the religious community generated important social resources, or social capital, for both the youth and their families, involving both tangible and intangible benefits, and bridging and bonding effects. However, the study also illustrates the sometimes difficult negotiations the youth face in navigating between differentiation and belonging when there is a tension between the values of a minority group and the larger society, and one wants to and does belong to both. It also demonstrates the variety within both the majority and the minority communities in society, as well as the many different ways one can find a personally meaningful way of being an Adventist. In the light of the previous literature about socialization-in-context in an increasingly pluralistic society, the findings were examined at four levels: individual, family, community and societal. These were seen as both a nested structure and as constructing a funnel in which each broader level directs the influences that reach the narrower ones. The societal setting directs the position and operation of religious communities, families and individuals, and the influences that reach the developing children and young people are in many ways directed by societal, communal and family characteristics. These levels are by nature constantly changing, as well as being constructed of different parts, like the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, each of which alters in significance: for some negotiations on values and memberships the parental influence may be greater, whereas for others the peer group influences are. Although agency does remain somewhat connected to others, the growing youth are gradually able to take more responsibility for their own choices and their agency plays a crucial role in the process of choosing values and group memberships. Keywords: youth, community, Adventism, socialization, values, identity negotiations
Resumo:
Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.
Resumo:
A better understanding of stock price changes is important in guiding many economic activities. Since prices often do not change without good reasons, searching for related explanatory variables has involved many enthusiasts. This book seeks answers from prices per se by relating price changes to their conditional moments. This is based on the belief that prices are the products of a complex psychological and economic process and their conditional moments derive ultimately from these psychological and economic shocks. Utilizing information about conditional moments hence makes it an attractive alternative to using other selective financial variables in explaining price changes. The first paper examines the relation between the conditional mean and the conditional variance using information about moments in three types of conditional distributions; it finds that the significance of the estimated mean and variance ratio can be affected by the assumed distributions and the time variations in skewness. The second paper decomposes the conditional industry volatility into a concurrent market component and an industry specific component; it finds that market volatility is on average responsible for a rather small share of total industry volatility — 6 to 9 percent in UK and 2 to 3 percent in Germany. The third paper looks at the heteroskedasticity in stock returns through an ARCH process supplemented with a set of conditioning information variables; it finds that the heteroskedasticity in stock returns allows for several forms of heteroskedasticity that include deterministic changes in variances due to seasonal factors, random adjustments in variances due to market and macro factors, and ARCH processes with past information. The fourth paper examines the role of higher moments — especially skewness and kurtosis — in determining the expected returns; it finds that total skewness and total kurtosis are more relevant non-beta risk measures and that they are costly to be diversified due either to the possible eliminations of their desirable parts or to the unsustainability of diversification strategies based on them.
Resumo:
Financial time series tend to behave in a manner that is not directly drawn from a normal distribution. Asymmetries and nonlinearities are usually seen and these characteristics need to be taken into account. To make forecasts and predictions of future return and risk is rather complicated. The existing models for predicting risk are of help to a certain degree, but the complexity in financial time series data makes it difficult. The introduction of nonlinearities and asymmetries for the purpose of better models and forecasts regarding both mean and variance is supported by the essays in this dissertation. Linear and nonlinear models are consequently introduced in this dissertation. The advantages of nonlinear models are that they can take into account asymmetries. Asymmetric patterns usually mean that large negative returns appear more often than positive returns of the same magnitude. This goes hand in hand with the fact that negative returns are associated with higher risk than in the case where positive returns of the same magnitude are observed. The reason why these models are of high importance lies in the ability to make the best possible estimations and predictions of future returns and for predicting risk.
Resumo:
This study contributes to our knowledge of how information contained in financial statements is interpreted and priced by the stock market in two aspects. First, the empirical findings indicate that investors interpret some of the information contained in new financial statements in the context of the information of prior financial statements. Second, two central hypotheses offered in earlier literature to explain the significant connection between publicly available financial statement information and future abnormal returns, that the signals proxy for risk and that the information is priced with a delay, are evaluated utilizing a new methodology. It is found that the mentioned significant connection for some financial statement signals can be explained by that the signals proxy for risk and for other financial statement signals by that the information contained in the signals is priced with a delay.
Resumo:
This study examined the effects of the Greeks of the options and the trading results of delta hedging strategies, with three different time units or option-pricing models. These time units were calendar time, trading time and continuous time using discrete approximation (CTDA) time. The CTDA time model is a pricing model, that among others accounts for intraday and weekend, patterns in volatility. For the CTDA time model some additional theta measures, which were believed to be usable in trading, were developed. The study appears to verify that there were differences in the Greeks with different time units. It also revealed that these differences influence the delta hedging of options or portfolios. Although it is difficult to say anything about which is the most usable of the different time models, as this much depends on the traders view of the passing of time, different market conditions and different portfolios, the CTDA time model can be viewed as an attractive alternative.
Resumo:
The use of different time units in option pricing may lead to inconsistent estimates of time decay and spurious jumps in implied volatilities. Different time units in the pricing model leads to different implied volatilities although the option price itself is the same.The chosen time unit should make it necessary to adjust the volatility parameter only when there are some fundamental reasons for it and not due to wrong specifications of the model. This paper examined the effects of option pricing using different time hypotheses and empirically investigated which time frame the option markets in Germany employ over weekdays. The paper specifically tries to get a picture of how the market prices options. The results seem to verify that the German market behaves in a fashion that deviates from the most traditional time units in option pricing, calendar and trading days. The study also showed that the implied volatility of Thursdays was somewhat higher and thus differed from the pattern of other days of the week. Using a GARCH model to further investigate the effect showed that although a traditional tests, like the analysis of variance, indicated a negative return for Thursday during the same period as the implied volatilities used, this was not supported using a GARCH model.
Resumo:
Although empirical evidence suggests the contrary, many asset pricing models assume stock returns to be symmetrically distributed. In this paper it is argued that the occurrence of negative jumps in a firm's future earnings and, consequently, in its stock price, is positively related to the level of network externalities in the firm's product market. If the ex post frequency of these negative jumps in a sample does not equal the ex ante assessed probability of occurrence, the sample is subject to a peso problem. The hypothesis is tested for by regressing the skewness coefficient of a firm’s realised stock return distribution on the firm’s R&D intensity, i.e. the ratio of the firm’s research and development expenditure to its net sales. The empirical results support the technology-related peso problem hypothesis. In samples subject to such a peso problem, the returns are biased up and the variance is biased down.
Resumo:
This study evaluates three different time units in option pricing: trading time, calendar time and continuous time using discrete approximations (CTDA). The CTDA-time model partitions the trading day into 30-minute intervals, where each interval is given a weight corresponding to the historical volatility in the respective interval. Furthermore, the non-trading volatility, both overnight and weekend volatility, is included in the first interval of the trading day in the CTDA model. The three models are tested on market prices. The results indicate that the trading-time model gives the best fit to market prices in line with the results of previous studies, but contrary to expectations under non-arbitrage option pricing. Under non-arbitrage pricing, the option premium should reflect the cost of hedging the expected volatility during the option’s remaining life. The study concludes that the historical patterns in volatility are not fully accounted for by the market, rather the market prices options closer to trading time.
Resumo:
Pricing American put options on dividend-paying stocks has largely been ignored in the option pricing literature because the problem is mathematically complex and valuation usually resorts to computationally expensive and impractical pricing applications. This paper computed a simulation study, using two different approximation methods for the valuation of American put options on a stock with known discrete dividend payments. This to find out if there were pricing errors and to find out which could be the most usable method for practical users. The option pricing models used in the study was the dividend approximation by Blomeyer (1986) and the one by Barone-Adesi and Whaley (1988). The study showed that the approximation method by Blomeyer worked satisfactory for most situations, but some errors occur for longer times to the dividend payment, for smaller dividends and for in-the-money options. The approximation method by Barone-Adesi and Whaley worked well for in-the-money options and at-the-money options, but had serious pricing errors for out-of-the-money options. The conclusion of the study is that a combination of the both methods might be preferable to any single model.