Simulating and Forecasting the Demand for New Consumer Durables

A diffusion/replacement model for new consumer durables designed to be used as a long-term forecasting tool is developed. The model simulates new demand as well as replacement demand over time. The model is called DEMSIM and is built upon a counteractive adoption model specifying the basic forces affecting the adoption behaviour of individual consumers. These forces are the promoting forces and the resisting forces. The promoting forces are further divided into internal and external influences. These influences are operationalized within a multi-segmental diffusion model generating the adoption behaviour of the consumers in each segment as an expected value. This diffusion model is combined with a replacement model built upon the same segmental structure as the diffusion model. This model generates, in turn, the expected replacement behaviour in each segment. To be able to use DEMSIM as a forecasting tool in early stages of a diffusion process estimates of the model parameters are needed as soon as possible after product launch. However, traditional statistical techniques are not very helpful in estimating such parameters in early stages of a diffusion process. To enable early parameter calibration an optimization algorithm is developed by which the main parameters of the diffusion model can be estimated on the basis of very few sales observations. The optimization is carried out in iterative simulation runs. Empirical validations using the optimization algorithm reveal that the diffusion model performs well in early long-term sales forecasts, especially as it comes to the timing of future sales peaks.

Kotitalouden opetustilat osana kehittyvää oppimisympäristöä : asumistoiminnot ja opetussuunnitelma muutoksen määrittäjinä

Home Economics Classrooms as Part of Developing the Environment Housing Activities and Curriculums Defining Change --- The aim of the research project was to develop home economics classrooms to be flexible and versatile learning environments where household activities might be practiced according to the curriculum in different social networking situations. The research is based on the socio-cultural approach, where the functionality of the learning environment is studied specifically from an interactive learning viewpoint. The social framework is a natural starting point in home economics teaching because of the group work in classrooms. The social nature of learning thus becomes a significant part of the learning process. The study considers learning as experience based, holistic and context bound. The learning environment, i.e. home economics classrooms and the material tools there, plays a significant role in developing students skills to manage everyday life. --- The first research task was to analyze the historical development of household activities. The second research task was to develop and test criteria for functional home economics classrooms in planning both the learning environment and the students activities during lessons. The third research task was to evaluate how different professionals (commissioners, planners and teachers) use the criteria as a tool. The research consists of three parts. The first contains a historical analysis of how social changes have created tension between traditional household classrooms and new activities in homes. The historical analysis is based on housing research, regulations and instructions. For this purpose a new theoretical concept, the tension arch, was introduced. This helped in recognizing and solving problems in students activities and in developing innovations. The functionality criteria for home economics classrooms were developed based on this concept. These include technical (health, safety and technical factors), functional (ergonomic, ecological, aesthetic and economic factors) and behavioural (cooperation and interaction skills and communication technologies) criteria. --- The second part discusses how the criteria were used in renovating school buildings. Empirical data was collected from two separate schools where the activities during lessons were recorded both before and after classrooms were renovated. An analysis of both environments based on video recordings was conducted. The previously created criteria were made use of, and problematic points in functionality looked for particularly from a social interactive viewpoint. The results show that the criteria were used as a planning tool. The criteria facilitated layout and equipment solutions that support both curriculum and learning in home economics classrooms taking into consideration cooperation and interaction in the classroom. With the help of the criteria the home economics classrooms changed from closed and complicated space into integrated and open spaces where the flexibility and versatility of the learning environment was emphasized. The teacher became a facilitator and counselor instead a classroom controller. --- The third part analyses the discussions in planning meetings. These were recorded and an analysis was conducted of how the criteria and research results were used in the planning process of new home economics classrooms. The planning process was multivoiced, i.e. actors from different interest groups took part. All the previously created criteria (technical, functional and behavioural) emerged in the discussions and some of them were used as planning tools. Planning meetings turned into planning studios where boundaries between organizations were ignored and the physical learning environments were developed together with experts. The planning studios resulted in multivoiced planning which showed characteristics of collaborative and participating planning as well as producing common knowledge and shared expertise. --- KEY WORDS: physical learning environment, socio-cultural approach, tension arch, boundary crossing, collaborative planning.

Eteva Järvenpään perhepalvelukeskuksen lyhytaikaishoidon suunnittelun kehittäminen

Objectives. The thesis objective was to analyze how person-centred planning is applied to develop short term care in interaction between the disabled children, their families and the workers of the family service centre of Eteva Järvenpää. The thesis contributes to developing the methods of person-centred planning. I applied theoretical frameworks of activity theory and developmental work research, family-based work framework and disability phenomenon. The research questions were: What development needs did the families of disabled children have for the services? How were viewpoints of disabled children, their families and Eteva workers noticed in person-centred planning in the interaction between the disabled children, their families and Eteva workers? What disturbances and development challenges emerged during the person-centred planning? Methods. I first analysed the local history of the disability sector and the short term care to analyse challenges arising from the local history. The actural research material consisted of interviews with four families, two person-centred planning discussions and two discussions where the person-centred planning was reflected by the families.I used interaction voice analysis as defined by the activity theory and developmental work research. From the recorded interviews and discussions I analysed scripts, disturbances, innovation attempts and innovations. From the discussions I analysed also the interaction types (cooperation, coordination and communication). Results and conclusions. As problems, the families considered the scarce resources and the inflexibility of services. The challenges of developing the short term care were how to transfer information from short term care to home, how to develop activities for the children and how to take into account the individual needs of the children in the short term care. Both from the local history analysis and from the family interviews arised the conflict between caring and fulfilling the individual needs. In person-centred planning, the voice of the child was either interpreted by other family members or guided by family members or workers. I modelled the progress of person-centred planning in a two-dimensional coordination. Person-centred planning should be deepened in cooperation between the child, the family and the workers in everyday situations at home and during the short term care. The challenge is to expand person-centred planning to become cross-organizational cooperation connecting the actors of the child s service network in everyday life. Avainsanat Nyckelord - Keywords short term care, activity theory and developmental work research, person-centred planning, disability

Kehittämistutkimus: Tieto- ja viestintätekniikkaa kemian opetukseen

The main aim of the present study was to develop information and communication technology (ICT) based chemistry education. The goals for the study were to support meaningful chemistry learning, research-based teaching and diffusion of ICT innovations. These goals were used as guidelines that form the theoretical framework for this study. This Doctoral Dissertation is based on eight-stage research project that included three design researches. These three design researches were scrutinized as separate case studies in which the different cases were formed according to different design teams: i) one researcher was in charge of the design and teachers were involved in the research process, ii) a research group was in charge of the design and students were involved in the research process, and iii) the design was done by student teams, the research was done collaboratively, and the design process was coordinated by a researcher. The research projects were conducted using mixed method approach, which enabled a comprehensive view on education design. In addition, the three central areas of design research: problem analysis, design solution and design process were included in the research, which was guided by the main research questions formed according to these central areas: 1) design solution: what kind of elements are included in ICT-based learning environments that support meaningful chemistry learning and diffusion of innovation, 2) problem analysis: what kind of new possibilities the designed learning environments offer for the support of meaningful chemistry learning, and 3) design process: what kind of opportunities and challenges does collaboration bring to the design of ICT-based learning environments? The main research questions were answered according to the analysis of the survey and observation data, six designed learning environments and ten design narratives from the three case studies. Altogether 139 chemistry teachers and teacher students were involved in the design processes. The data was mainly analysed by methods of qualitative content analysis. The first main result from the study give new information on the meaningful chemistry learning and the elements of ICT-based learning environment that support the diffusion of innovation, which can help in the development of future ICT-education design. When the designed learning environment was examined in the context of chemistry education, it was evident that an ICT-based chemistry learning environment supporting the meaningful learning of chemistry motivates the students and makes the teacher s work easier. In addition, it should enable the simultaneous fulfilment of several pedagogical goals and activate higher-level cognitive processes. The learning environment supporting the diffusion of ICT innovation is suitable for Finnish school environment, based on open source code, and easy to use with quality chemistry content. According to the second main result, new information was acquired about the possibilities of ICT-based learning environments in supporting meaningful chemistry learning. This will help in setting the goals for future ICT education. After the analysis of design solutions and their evaluations, it can be said that ICT enables the recognition of all elements that define learning environments (i.e. didactic, physical, technological and social elements). The research particularly demonstrates the significance of ICT in supporting students motivation and higher-level cognitive processes as well as versatile visualization resources for chemistry that ICT makes possible. In addition, research-based teaching method supports well the diffusion of studied innovation on individual level. The third main result brought out new information on the significance of collaboration in design research, which guides the design of ICT education development. According to the analysis of design narratives, it can be said that collaboration is important in the execution of scientifically reliable design research. It enables comprehensive requirement analysis and multifaceted development, which improves the reliability and validity of the research. At the same time, it sets reliability challenges by complicating documenting and coordination, for example. In addition, a new method for design research was developed. Its aim is to support the execution of complicated collaborative design projects. To increase the reliability and validity of the research, a model theory was used. It enables time-pound documenting and visualization of design decisions that clarify the process. This improves the reliability of the research. The validity of the research is improved by requirement definition through models. This way learning environments that meet the design goals can be constructed. The designed method can be used in education development from comprehensive to higher level. It can be used to recognize the needs of different interest groups and individuals with regard to processes, technology and substance knowledge as well as interfaces and relations between them. The developed method has also commercial potential. It is used to design learning environments for national and international market.

Information Technology Development Needs in Community Pharmacies : A Strategic Approach

In the context of health care, information technology (IT) has an important role in the operational infrastructure, ranging from business management to patient care. An essential part of the system is medication management in inpatient and outpatient care. Community pharmacists strategy has been to extend practice responsibilities beyond dispensing towards patient care services. Few studies have evaluated the strategic development of IT systems to support this vision. The objectives of this study were to assess and compare independent Finnish community pharmacy owners and staff pharmacists priorities concerning the content and structure of the next generation of community pharmacy IT systems, to explore international experts visions and strategic views on IT development needs in relation to services provided in community pharmacies, to identify IT innovations facilitating patient care services and to evaluate their development and implementation processes, and to assess community pharmacists readiness to adopt innovations. This study applied both qualitative and quantitative methods. A qualitative personal interview of 14 experts in community pharmacy services and related IT from eight countries and a national survey of Finnish community pharmacy owners (mail survey, response rate 53%, n=308), and of a representative sample of staff pharmacists (online survey, response rate 22%, n=373) were conducted. Finnish independent community pharmacy owners gave priority to logistical functions but also to those related to medication information and patient care. The managers and staff pharmacists have different views of the importance of IT features, reflecting their different professional duties in the community pharmacy. This indicates the need for involving different occupation groups in planning the new IT systems for community pharmacies. A majority of the international experts shared the vision of community pharmacy adopting a patient care orientation; supported by IT-based documentation, new technological solutions, access to information, and shared patient data. Community pharmacy IT innovations were rare, which is paradoxical because owners and staff pharmacists perception of their innovativeness was seen as being high. Community pharmacy IT systems development processes usually had not undergone systematic needs assessment research beforehand or evaluation after the implementation and were most often coordinated by national governments without subsequent commercialization. Specifically, community pharmacy IT developments lack research, organization, leadership and user involvement in the process. Those responsible for IT development in the community pharmacy sector should create long-term IT development strategies that are in line with community pharmacy service development strategies. This could provide systematic guidance for future projects to ensure that potential innovations are based on a sufficient understanding of pharmacy practice problems that they are intended to solve, and to encourage strong leadership in research, development of innovations so that community pharmacists potential innovativeness is used, and that professional needs and strategic priorities will be considered even if the development process is led by those outside the profession.

Uutta, vanhaa ja lainattua : Tampereen Kaupunkilähetyksen kristillissosiaalisen työn asemoituminen hyvinvointivaltion rakentumisessa vuosina 1939−1973

The main purpose of this study was to provide a full account of the Christian social work carried out at the Tampere City Mission (TCM) as well as the Missions sphere of operations from the Second World War to the early 1970s, comprising a period of significant change. The study consists of charting the processes of change and connections within the activities of the TCM and how examining these were linked to the general tendencies of the period, in lay work, social work, professionalization and the representation of gender. The positioning of the activities is described on the basis of these tendencies. The main sources for the study were the archives of the Mission, for example the minutes of meetings, correspondences as well as annual reports, and the archives of its partners, such as the City of Tampere, the Evangelical Lutheran parishes of Tampere and the State Welfare Administration. The archives of the Helsinki, Turku and Stockholm Missions supplied comparison reference and other material. In particular, social welfare and Christian social work technical journals of were used as printed sources. The principal method used was the genetic method of historiology. The research subject was also evaluated from the point of view of third sector research in addition to that of professionalization studies and gender studies. By the beginning of the research period, the TCM had turned more and more dedicatedly into a multipurpose social service organization maintaining social services such as old people s homes and children´s homes. This development continued, even though new areas of activity emerged and older ones fell into disuse. Social innovations sprang up, marriage counseling being one of them. On the national level, the TCM pioneered the provision of sheltered industrial work for intellectually disabled persons as well as housing services for them. As new activities were initiated, they overlapped with the established ones, and the TCM handed some of its child protection functions over to the municipality, in accordance with the current adaptation theory. The use of its own property to produce ever-changing social services may be the reason why the association s work continued on with vitality. Functional networks and political aid in the field of social services also bolstered the association. As in other Nordic countries, nonprofit organizations served as partners rather than competitors, with the State establishing institutional welfare arrangements. In the 1960s the municipal takeover of social services impacted the TCM activities. Rules for government subsidies and municipal allowances were not well established; hence these funds were not easily available, making improvements difficult. The TCM was a community in which women had a relatively strong position and an opportunity to make a difference. Female staff were reasonably equal to men, and women worked as heads of a several institutions. Care work employed a number of men, which went against the traditional segregation of labour between the sexes. The TCM s operations were from early on very professionalized, and were developed with particular care. Keywords: Christian social work, third sector, professionalization, gender