Asteroid identification using statistical orbital inversion methods

An efficient and statistically robust solution for the identification of asteroids among numerous sets of astrometry is presented. In particular, numerical methods have been developed for the short-term identification of asteroids at discovery, and for the long-term identification of scarcely observed asteroids over apparitions, a task which has been lacking a robust method until now. The methods are based on the solid foundation of statistical orbital inversion properly taking into account the observational uncertainties, which allows for the detection of practically all correct identifications. Through the use of dimensionality-reduction techniques and efficient data structures, the exact methods have a loglinear, that is, O(nlog(n)), computational complexity, where n is the number of included observation sets. The methods developed are thus suitable for future large-scale surveys which anticipate a substantial increase in the astrometric data rate. Due to the discontinuous nature of asteroid astrometry, separate sets of astrometry must be linked to a common asteroid from the very first discovery detections onwards. The reason for the discontinuity in the observed positions is the rotation of the observer with the Earth as well as the motion of the asteroid and the observer about the Sun. Therefore, the aim of identification is to find a set of orbital elements that reproduce the observed positions with residuals similar to the inevitable observational uncertainty. Unless the astrometric observation sets are linked, the corresponding asteroid is eventually lost as the uncertainty of the predicted positions grows too large to allow successful follow-up. Whereas the presented identification theory and the numerical comparison algorithm are generally applicable, that is, also in fields other than astronomy (e.g., in the identification of space debris), the numerical methods developed for asteroid identification can immediately be applied to all objects on heliocentric orbits with negligible effects due to non-gravitational forces in the time frame of the analysis. The methods developed have been successfully applied to various identification problems. Simulations have shown that the methods developed are able to find virtually all correct linkages despite challenges such as numerous scarce observation sets, astrometric uncertainty, numerous objects confined to a limited region on the celestial sphere, long linking intervals, and substantial parallaxes. Tens of previously unknown main-belt asteroids have been identified with the short-term method in a preliminary study to locate asteroids among numerous unidentified sets of single-night astrometry of moving objects, and scarce astrometry obtained nearly simultaneously with Earth-based and space-based telescopes has been successfully linked despite a substantial parallax. Using the long-term method, thousands of realistic 3-linkages typically spanning several apparitions have so far been found among designated observation sets each spanning less than 48 hours.

Dynamic nature of proteins - interpretation of residual dipolar couplings

Protein conformations and dynamics can be studied by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy using dilute liquid crystalline samples. This work clarifies the interpretation of residual dipolar coupling data yielded by the experiments. It was discovered that unfolded proteins without any additional structure beyond that of a mere polypeptide chain exhibit residual dipolar couplings. Also, it was found that molecular dynamics induce fluctuations in the molecular alignment and doing so affect residual dipolar couplings. The finding clarified the origins of low order parameter values observed earlier. The work required the development of new analytical and computational methods for the prediction of intrinsic residual dipolar coupling profiles for unfolded proteins. The presented characteristic chain model is able to reproduce the general trend of experimental residual dipolar couplings for denatured proteins. The details of experimental residual dipolar coupling profiles are beyond the analytical model, but improvements are proposed to achieve greater accuracy. A computational method for rapid prediction of unfolded protein residual dipolar couplings was also developed. Protein dynamics were shown to modulate the effective molecular alignment in a dilute liquid crystalline medium. The effects were investigated from experimental and molecular dynamics generated conformational ensembles of folded proteins. It was noted that dynamics induced alignment is significant especially for the interpretation of molecular dynamics in small, globular proteins. A method of correction was presented. Residual dipolar couplings offer an attractive possibility for the direct observation of protein conformational preferences and dynamics. The presented models and methods of analysis provide significant advances in the interpretation of residual dipolar coupling data from proteins.

Accelerator Mass Spectrometry and Bayesian Data Analysis

Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) is an ultrasensitive technique for measuring the concentration of a single isotope. The electric and magnetic fields of an electrostatic accelerator system are used to filter out other isotopes from the ion beam. The high velocity means that molecules can be destroyed and removed from the measurement background. As a result, concentrations down to one atom in 10^16 atoms are measurable. This thesis describes the construction of the new AMS system in the Accelerator Laboratory of the University of Helsinki. The system is described in detail along with the relevant ion optics. System performance and some of the 14C measurements done with the system are described. In a second part of the thesis, a novel statistical model for the analysis of AMS data is presented. Bayesian methods are used in order to make the best use of the available information. In the new model, instrumental drift is modelled with a continuous first-order autoregressive process. This enables rigorous normalization to standards measured at different times. The Poisson statistical nature of a 14C measurement is also taken into account properly, so that uncertainty estimates are much more stable. It is shown that, overall, the new model improves both the accuracy and the precision of AMS measurements. In particular, the results can be improved for samples with very low 14C concentrations or measured only a few times.

The effects of the 2004 reduction in the price of alcohol on alcohol-related harm in Finland : A natural experiment based on register data

Changes in alcohol pricing have been documented as inversely associated with changes in consumption and alcohol-related problems. Evidence of the association between price changes and health problems is nevertheless patchy and is based to a large extent on cross-sectional state-level data, or time series of such cross-sectional analyses. Natural experimental studies have been called for. There was a substantial reduction in the price of alcohol in Finland in 2004 due to a reduction in alcohol taxes of one third, on average, and the abolition of duty-free allowances for travellers from the EU. These changes in the Finnish alcohol policy could be considered a natural experiment, which offered a good opportunity to study what happens with regard to alcohol-related problems when prices go down. The present study investigated the effects of this reduction in alcohol prices on (1) alcohol-related and all-cause mortality, and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, (2) alcohol-related morbidity in terms of hospitalisation, (3) socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality, and (4) small-area differences in interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area. Differential trends in alcohol-related mortality prior to the price reduction were also analysed. A variety of population-based register data was used in the study. Time-series intervention analysis modelling was applied to monthly aggregations of deaths and hospitalisation for the period 1996-2006. These and other mortality analyses were carried out for men and women aged 15 years and over. Socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality were assessed on a before/after basis, mortality being followed up in 2001-2003 (before the price reduction) and 2004-2005 (after). Alcohol-related mortality was defined in all the studies on mortality on the basis of information on both underlying and contributory causes of death. Hospitalisation related to alcohol meant that there was a reference to alcohol in the primary diagnosis. Data on interpersonal violence was gathered from 86 administrative small-areas in the Helsinki Metropolitan area and was also assessed on a before/after basis followed up in 2002-2003 and 2004-2005. The statistical methods employed to analyse these data sets included time-series analysis, and Poisson and linear regression. The results of the study indicate that alcohol-related deaths increased substantially among men aged 40-69 years and among women aged 50-69 after the price reduction when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. The increase was mainly attributable to chronic causes, particularly liver diseases. Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased considerably among the-over-69-year-olds. The increase in alcohol-related mortality in absolute terms among the 30-59-year-olds was largest among the unemployed and early-age pensioners, and those with a low level of education, social class or income. The relative differences in change between the education and social class subgroups were small. The employed and those under the age of 35 did not suffer from increased alcohol-related mortality in the two years following the price reduction. The gap between the age and education groups, which was substantial in the 1980s, thus further broadened. With regard to alcohol-related hospitalisation, there was an increase in both chronic and acute causes among men under the age of 70, and among women in the 50-69-year age group when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. Alcohol dependence and other alcohol-related mental and behavioural disorders were the largest category in both the total number of chronic hospitalisation and in the increase. There was no increase in the rate of interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area, and even a decrease in domestic violence. There was a significant relationship between the measures of social disadvantage on the area level and interpersonal violence, although the differences in the effects of the price reduction between the different areas were small. The findings of the present study suggest that that a reduction in alcohol prices may lead to a substantial increase in alcohol-related mortality and morbidity. However, large population group differences were observed regarding responsiveness to the price changes. In particular, the less privileged, such as the unemployed, were most sensitive. In contrast, at least in the Finnish context, the younger generations and the employed do not appear to be adversely affected, and those in the older age groups may even benefit from cheaper alcohol in terms of decreased rates of CVD mortality. The results also suggest that reductions in alcohol prices do not necessarily affect interpersonal violence. The population group differences in the effects of the price changes on alcohol-related harm should be acknowledged, and therefore the policy actions should focus on the population subgroups that are primarily responsive to the price reduction.

Kulutus, tieto, hallinta : Kulutuksen tilastoinnin muutokset 1900-luvun Suomessa

The aim of the study was to find out how the consumption of the population in Finland became a target of social interest and production of statistical data in the early 20th century, and what efforts have been made to influence consumption with social policy measures at different times. Questions concerning consumption are examined through the practices employed in the compilation of statistics on it. The interpretation framework in the study is Michael Foucault s perspective of modern liberal government. This mode of government is typified by pursuit of efficiency and search of equilibrium between economic government and a government of the processes of life. It shows aspirations towards both integration and individualisation. The government is based on freedom practices. It also implies knowledge-based ways of conceptualising reality. Statistical data are of specific significance in this context. The connection between the government of consumption and the compilation of statistics on it is studied through the theoretical, socio-political and statistical conceptualisation of consumption. The research material consisted of Finnish and international documentation on the compilation of statistics on consumption, publications of social programmes, and reports of studies on consumption. The analysis of the material focused especially on the problematisations related to consumption found in these documents and on changes in them over history. There have been both clearly observable changes and as well as historical stratification and diversity in the rationalities and practices of consumption government during the 20th century. Consumption has been influenced by pluralistic government, based at different times and in varying ways on the logics of solidarity and markets. The difference between these is that in the former risks are prepared for collectively while in the latter risks are individualised. Despite the differences, the characteristic that is common to these logics is certain kind of contractuality. They are both permeated by the household logic which differs from them in that it is based on the normative and ethical demands imposed on an individual. There has been a clear interactive connection between statistical data and consumption government. Statistical practices have followed changes in the way consumption has been conceptualised in society. This has been reflected in the statistical phenomena of interest, concepts, classifications and indicators. New ways of compiling statistics have in their turn shaped perceptions of reality. Statistical data have also facilitated a variety of rational calculations with which the consequences of the population s consumption habits have been evaluated at the levels of economy at large and individuals.

Interpretation of Services Marketing Concepts

Scholarly research has produced conceptual knowledge that is based on real-life marketing phenomena. An initial aim of past research has been to produce marketing knowledge as a base for efficient business operation and for the improvement of productivity. Thus, an assumption has been that the knowledge would be applied by organisations. This study focuses on understanding the use of marketing knowledge within the field of service marketing. Hence, even if marketing knowledge about service-oriented principles and marketing of services is based on empirical research, there is a lack of knowledge on how this marketing knowledge is in fact applied by businesses. The study focuses on four essential concepts of services marketing knowledge, namely service quality, servicescape, internal marketing, and augmented service offering. The research involves four case companies. Data is based on in depth interviews and questionnaire-based surveys conducted with managers, employees, and customers of these companies. All organisations were currently developing in a service-oriented and customer-oriented direction. However, we found limitations, gaps, and barriers for the implementation of service-oriented and customer-oriented principles. Hence, we argue that the organisations involved in the study exploited conceptual knowledge symbolically and conceptually, but the instrumental use of knowledge was limited. Due to the shortcomings found, we also argue that the implementation of the various practices and processes that are related to becoming service-oriented and customer-oriented has not been fully successful. Further, we have come to the conclusion that the shortcomings detected were at least in some respect related to the fact that the understanding and utilisation of conceptual knowledge of service-oriented principles and marketing of services were somewhat limited.

Why Don't Students Talk? Causes of Foreign Language Communication Apprehension in English Classes: A Comparison of High Apprehensive and Low Apprehensive Upper Secondary Students.

OBJECTIVES. Oral foreign language skills are an integral part of one's social, academic and professional competence. This can be problematic for those suffering from foreign language communication apprehension (CA), or a fear of speaking a foreign language. CA manifests itself, for example, through feelings of anxiety and tension, physical arousal and avoidance of foreign language communication situations. According to scholars, foreign language CA may impede the language learning process significantly and have detrimental effects on one's language learning, academic achievement and career prospects. Drawing on upper secondary students' subjective experiences of communication situations in English as a foreign language, this study seeks, first, to describe, analyze and interpret why upper secondary students experience English language communication apprehension in English as a foreign language (EFL) classes. Second, this study seeks to analyse what the most anxiety-arousing oral production tasks in EFL classes are, and which features of different oral production tasks arouse English language communication apprehension and why. The ultimate objectives of the present study are to raise teachers' awareness of foreign language CA and its features, manifestations and impacts in foreign language classes as well as to suggest possible ways to minimize the anxiety-arousing features in foreign language classes. METHODS. The data was collected in two phases by means of six-part Likert-type questionnaires and theme interviews, and analysed using both quantitative and qualitative methods. The questionnaire data was collected in spring 2008. The respondents were 122 first-year upper secondary students, 68 % of whom were girls and 31 % of whom were boys. The data was analysed by statistical methods using SPSS software. The theme interviews were conducted in spring 2009. The interviewees were 11 second-year upper secondary students aged 17 to 19, who were chosen by purposeful selection on the basis of their English language CA level measured in the questionnaires. Six interviewees were classified as high apprehensives and five as low apprehensives according to their score in the foreign language CA scale in the questionnaires. The interview data was coded and thematized using the technique of content analysis. The analysis and interpretation of the data drew on a comparison of the self-reports of the highly apprehensive and low apprehensive upper secondary students. RESULTS. The causes of English language CA in EFL classes as reported by the students were both internal and external in nature. The most notable causes were a low self-assessed English proficiency, a concern over errors, a concern over evaluation, and a concern over the impression made on others. Other causes related to a high English language CA were a lack of authentic oral practise in EFL classes, discouraging teachers and negative experiences of learning English, unrealistic internal demands for oral English performance, high external demands and expectations for oral English performance, the conversation partner's higher English proficiency, and the audience's large size and unfamiliarity. The most anxiety-arousing oral production tasks in EFL classes were presentations or speeches with or without notes in front of the class, acting in front of the class, pair debates with the class as audience, expressing thoughts and ideas to the class, presentations or speeches without notes while seated, group debates with the class as audience, and answering to the teacher's questions involuntarily. The main features affecting the anxiety-arousing potential of an oral production task were a high degree of attention, a large audience, a high degree of evaluation, little time for preparation, little linguistic support, and a long duration.

Korkeakoulupolitiikan dynamiikat Suomessa

The study scrutinizes the dynamics of the Finnish higher education political system. Dynamics is understood as the regularity of interaction between actors. By actors is meant the central institutions in the system. The theoretical framework of the study draws on earlier research in political science and higher education political studies. The theoretical model for analysis is built on agenda-setting theories. The theoretical model separates two dimensions of dynamics, namely the political situation and political possibilities. A political situation can be either favourable or contradictory to change. If the institutional framework within the higher education system is not compatible with the external factors of the system, the political situation is contradictory to change. To change the situation into a favourable one, one needs either to change the institutional structure or wait for external factors to change. Then again, the political possibilities can be either settled or politicized. Politicization means that new possibilities for action are found. Settled possibilities refer to routine actions performed according to old practices. The research tasks based on the theoretical model are: 1. To empirically analyse the political situation and the possibilities from the actors point of view. 2. To theoretically construct and empirically test a model for analysis of dynamics in the Finnish higher education politics. The research material consists of 25 thematic interviews with key persons in the higher education political system in 2008. In addition, there are also documents from different actors since the 1980s and statistical data. The material is analysed in four phases. In the first phase the emphasis is on trying to understand the interviewees and actors points of view. In the second phase the different types of research material are related to each other. In the third phase the findings are related to the theoretical model, which is constructed over the course of the analysis. In the fourth phase the interpretation is tested. The research distinguishes three historical periods in the Finnish higher education system and focuses on the last one. This is the era of the complex system beginning in the 1980s 1990s. Based on the interviews, four policy threads are identified and analysed in their historical context. Each of the policy threads represents one of the four possible dynamics identified in the theoretical model. The research policy thread functions according to reform dynamics. A coalition of innovation politics is able to use the politicized possibilities due to the political situation created by the conception of the national innovation system. The regional policy thread is in a gridlock dynamics. The combination of a political system based on provincial representation, a regional higher education institutional framework and outside pressure to streamline the higher education structure created a contradictory political situation. Because of this situation, the politicized possibilities in the so-called "regional development plan" do not have much effect. In the international policy thread, a consensual change dynamics is found. Through changes in the institutional framework, the higher education political system is moulded into a favourable situation. However, the possibilities are settled: a pragmatic national gaze prevailed. A dynamics of friction is found in the governance policy thread. A political situation where political-strategic and budgetary decision-making are separated is not favourable for change. In addition, as governance policy functions according to settled possibilities, the situation seems unchangeable. There are five central findings. First, the dynamics are different depending on the policy thread under scrutiny. Second, the settled possibilities in a policy thread seemed to influence other threads the most. Third, dynamics are much related to changes external to the higher education political system, the changing positions of the actors in different policy threads and the unexpected nature of the dynamics. Fourth, it is fruitful to analyse the dynamics with the theoretical model. Fifth, but only hypothetically and thus left for further research, it seems that the Finnish higher education politics is reactive and weak at politicization.

Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

After interpretation.

Using 58 audio recorded sessions of psychoanalysis (coming from two analysts and three patients) as data and conversation analysis as method, this paper shows how psychoanalysts deal with patients’ responses to interpretations. After the analyst offers an interpretation, the patient responds: at that point (in the “third position”), the analysts recurrently modify the tenor of the description from what it was in the patients’ responses. They intensify the emotional valence of the description, or they reveal layers of the patients’ experience other than those that the patient reported. Both are usually accomplished in an implicit, non-marked way, and they discreetly index possible opportunities for the patients to modify their understandings of the initial interpretation. Although the patients usually do not fully endorse these modifications, the data available suggests that during the sessions that follow, the participants do work with the aspects of patients’ experience that the analyst highlighted. In discussion, it is suggested that actions that the psychoanalysts produce in therapy, such as choices of turn design in third position, may be informed by working understanding of the minds and mental conflicts of individual patients, alongside the more general therapeutic model of mind they hold to.