Silvicultural decisions based on simulation-optimization systems

Forest management is facing new challenges under climate change. By adjusting thinning regimes, conventional forest management can be adapted to various objectives of utilization of forest resources, such as wood quality, forest bioenergy, and carbon sequestration. This thesis aims to develop and apply a simulation-optimization system as a tool for an interdisciplinary understanding of the interactions between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. In this thesis, the OptiFor software was developed for forest resources management. The OptiFor simulation-optimization system integrated the process-based growth model PipeQual, wood quality models, biomass production and carbon emission models, as well as energy wood and commercial logging models into a single optimization model. Osyczka s direct and random search algorithm was employed to identify optimal values for a set of decision variables. The numerical studies in this thesis broadened our current knowledge and understanding of the relationships between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. The results for timber production show that optimal thinning regimes depend on site quality and initial stand characteristics. Taking wood properties into account, our results show that increasing the intensity of thinning resulted in lower wood density and shorter fibers. The addition of nutrients accelerated volume growth, but lowered wood quality for Norway spruce. Integrating energy wood harvesting into conventional forest management showed that conventional forest management without energy wood harvesting was still superior in sparse stands of Scots pine. Energy wood from pre-commercial thinning turned out to be optimal for dense stands. When carbon balance is taken into account, our results show that changing carbon assessment methods leads to very different optimal thinning regimes and average carbon stocks. Raising the carbon price resulted in longer rotations and a higher mean annual increment, as well as a significantly higher average carbon stock over the rotation.

Use of biomass fuels in the brick-making industries of Sudan: Implications for deforestation and greenhouse gas emission

The study focuses on the potential roles of the brick making industries in Sudan in deforestation and greenhouse gas emission due to the consumption of biofuels. The results were based on the observation of 25 brick making industries from three administrative regions in Sudan namely, Khartoum, Kassala and Gezira. The methodological approach followed the procedures outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For predicting a serious deforestation scenario, it was also assumed that all of wood use for this particular purpose is from unsustainable sources. The study revealed that the total annual quantity of fuelwood consumed by the surveyed brick making industries (25) was 2,381 t dm. Accordingly, the observed total potential deforested wood was 10,624 m3, in which the total deforested round wood was 3,664 m3 and deforested branches was 6,961 m3. The study observed that a total of 2,990 t biomass fuels (fuelwood and dung cake) consumed annually by the surveyed brick making industries for brick burning. Consequently, estimated total annual emissions of greenhouse gases were 4,832 t CO2, 21 t CH4, 184 t CO, 0.15 t N20, 5 t NOX and 3.5 t NO while the total carbon released in the atmosphere was 1,318 t. Altogether, the total annual greenhouse gases emissions from biomass fuels burning was 5,046 t; of which 4,104 t from fuelwood and 943 t from dung cake burning. According to the results, due to the consumption of fuelwood in the brick making industries (3,450 units) of Sudan, the amount of wood lost from the total growing stock of wood in forests and trees in Sudan annually would be 1,466,000 m3 encompassing 505,000 m3 round wood and 961,000 m3 branches annually. By considering all categories of biofuels (fuelwood and dung cake), it was estimated that, the total emissions from all the brick making industries of Sudan would be 663,000 t CO2, 2,900 t CH4, 25,300 t CO, 20 t N2O, 720 t NOX and 470 t NO per annum, while the total carbon released in the atmosphere would be 181,000 t annually.

The role of lakes in carbon cycling in boreal catchments

Lakes are an important component of ecosystem carbon cycle through both organic carbon sequestration and carbon dioxide and methane emissions, although they cover only a small fraction of the Earth's surface area. Lake sediments are considered to be one of rather perma-nent sinks of carbon in boreal regions and furthermore, freshwater ecosystems process large amounts of carbon originating from terrestrial sources. These carbon fluxes are highly uncer-tain especially in the changing climate. -- The present study provides a large-scale view on carbon sources and fluxes in boreal lakes situated in different landscapes. We present carbon concentrations in water, pools in lake se-diments, and carbon gas (CO2 and CH4) fluxes from lakes. The study is based on spatially extensive and randomly selected Nordic Lake Survey (NLS) database with 874 lakes. The large database allows the identification of the various factors (lake size, climate, and catchment land use) determining lake water carbon concentrations, pools and gas fluxes in different types of lakes along a latitudinal gradient from 60oN to 69oN. Lakes in different landscapes vary in their carbon quantity and quality. Carbon (C) content (total organic and inorganic carbon) in lakes is highest in agriculture and peatland dominated areas. In peatland rich areas organic carbon dominated in lakes but in agricultural areas both organic and inorganic C concentrations were high. Total inorganic carbon in the lake water was strongly dependent on the bedrock and soil quality in the catchment, especially in areas where human influence in the catchment is low. In inhabited areas both agriculture and habitation in the catchment increase lake TIC concentrations, since in the disturbed soils both weathering and leaching are presumably more efficient than in pristine areas. TOC concentrations in lakes were related to either catchment sources, mainly peatlands, or to retention in the upper watercourses. Retention as a regulator of the TOC concentrations dominated in southern Finland, whereas the peatland sources were important in northern Finland. The homogeneous land use in the north and the restricted catchment sources of TOC contribute to the close relationship between peatlands and the TOC concentrations in the northern lakes. In southern Finland the more favorable climate for degradation and the multiple sources of TOC in the mixed land use highlight the importance of retention. Carbon processing was intensive in the small lakes. Both CO2 emission and the Holocene C pool in sediments per square meter of the lake area were highest in the smallest lakes. How-ever, because the total area of the small lakes on the areal level is limited, the large lakes are important units in C processing in the landscape. Both CO2 and CH4 concentrations and emissions were high in eutrophic lakes. High availability of nutrients and the fresh organic matter enhance degradation in these lakes. Eutrophic lakes are often small and shallow, enabling high contact between the water column and the sediment. At the landscape level, the lakes in agricultural areas are often eutrophic due to fertile soils and fertilization of the catchments, and therefore they also showed the highest CO2 and CH4 concentrations. Export from the catchments and in-lake degradation were suggested to be equally important sources of CO2 and CH4 in fall when the lake water column was intensively mixed and the transport of sub-stances from the catchment was high due to the rainy season. In the stagnant periods, especially in the winter, in-lake degradation as a gas source was highlighted due to minimal mixing and limited transport of C from the catchment. The strong relationship between the annual CO2 level of lakes and the annual precipitation suggests that climate change can have a major impact on C cycling in the catchments. Increase in precipitation enhances DOC export from the catchments and leads to increasing greenhouse gas emissions from lakes. The total annual CO2 emission from Finnish lakes was estimated to be 1400 Gg C a-1. The total lake sediment C pool in Finland was estimated to be 0.62 Pg, giving an annual sink in Finnish lakes of 65 Gg C a-1.

Carbon Dioxide emissions from an Acacia plantation on peatland in Sumatra, Indonesia

Abstract. Peat surface CO2 emission, groundwater table depth and peat temperature were monitored for two years along transects in an Acacia plantation on thick tropical peat (>4 m) in Sumatra, Indonesia. A total of 2300 emission measurements were taken at 144 locations. The autotrophic root respiration component of the CO2 emission was separated from heterotrophic emissions caused by peat oxidation in three ways: (i) by comparing CO2 emissions within and beyond the tree rooting zone, (ii) by comparing CO2 emissions with and without peat trenching (i.e. cutting any roots remaining in the peat beyond the tree rooting zone), and (iii) by comparing CO2 emissions before and after Acacia tree harvesting. On average, the contribution of root respiration to daytime CO2 emission is 21 % along transects in mature tree stands. At locations 0.5 m from trees this is up to 80 % of the total emissions, but it is negligible at locations more than 1.3 m away. This means that CO2 emission measurements well away from trees are free of any root respiration contribution and thus represent only peat oxidation emission. We find daytime mean annual CO2 emission from peat oxidation alone of 94 t ha−1 yr−1 at a mean water table depth of 0.8 m, and a minimum emission value of 80 t ha−1 yr−1 after correction for the effect of diurnal temperature fluctuations, which resulted in a 14.5 % reduction of the daytime emission. There is a positive correlation between mean long-term water table depths and peat oxidation CO2 emission. However, no such relation is found for instantaneous emission/water table depth within transects and it is clear that factors other than water table depth also affect peat oxidation and total CO2 emissions. The increase in the temperature of the surface peat due to plantation development may explain over 50 % of peat oxidation emissions.

Soil carbon modelling as a tool for carbon balance studies in forestry

Soils represent a remarkable stock of carbon, and forest soils are estimated to hold half of the global stock of soil carbon. Topical concern about the effects of climate change and forest management on soil carbon as well as practical reporting requirements set by climate conventions have created a need to assess soil carbon stock changes reliably and transparently. The large spatial variability of soil carbon commensurate with relatively slow changes in stocks hinders the assessment of soil carbon stocks and their changes by direct measurements. Models therefore widely serve to estimate carbon stocks and stock changes in soils. This dissertation aimed to develop the soil carbon model YASSO for upland forest soils. The model was aimed to take into account the most important processes controlling the decomposition in soils, yet remain simple enough to ensure its practical applicability in different applications. The model structure and assumptions were presented and the model parameters were defined with empirical measurements. The model was evaluated by studying the sensitivities of the model results to parameter values, by estimating the precision of the results with an uncertainty analysis, and by assessing the accuracy of the model by comparing the predictions against measured data and to the results of an alternative model. The model was applied to study the effects of intensified biomass extraction on the forest carbon balance and to estimate the effects of soil carbon deficit on net greenhouse gas emissions of energy use of forest residues. The model was also applied in an inventory based method to assess the national scale forest carbon balance for Finland’s forests from 1922 to 2004. YASSO managed to describe sufficiently the effects of both the variable litter and climatic conditions on decomposition. When combined with the stand models or other systems providing litter information, the dynamic approach of the model proved to be powerful for estimating changes in soil carbon stocks on different scales. The climate dependency of the model, the effects of nitrogen on decomposition and forest growth as well as the effects of soil texture on soil carbon stock dynamics are areas for development when considering the applicability of the model to different research questions, different land use types and wider geographic regions. Intensified biomass extraction affects soil carbon stocks, and these changes in stocks should be taken into account when considering the net effects of forest residue utilisation as energy. On a national scale, soil carbon stocks play an important role in forest carbon balances.

Fen ecosystem carbon gas dynamics in changing hydrological conditions

Northern peatlands are thought to store one third of all soil carbon (C). Besides the C sink function, peatlands are one of the largest natural sources of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere. Climate change may affect the C gas dynamics as well as the labile C pool. Because the peatland C sequestration and CH4 emissions are governed by high water levels, changes in hydrology are seen as the driving factor in peatland ecosystem change. This study aimed to quantify the carbon dioxide (CO2) and CH4 dynamics of a fen ecosystem at different spatial scales: plant community components scale, plant community scale and ecosystem scale, under hydrologically normal and water level drawdown conditions. C gas exchange was measured in two fens in southern Finland applying static chamber and eddy covariance techniques. During hydrologically normal conditions, the ecosystem was a CO2 sink and CH4 source to the atmosphere. Sphagnum mosses and sedges were the most important contributors to the community photosynthesis. The presence of sedges had a major positive impact on CH4 emissions while dwarf shrubs had a slightly attenuating impact. C fluxes varied considerably between the plant communities. Therefore, their proportions determined the ecosystem scale fluxes. An experimental water level drawdown markedly reduced the photosynthesis and respiration of sedges and Sphagnum mosses and benefited shrubs. Consequently, changes were smaller at the ecosystem scale than at the plant group scale. The decrease in photosynthesis and the increase in respiration, mostly peat respiration, made the fen a smaller CO2 sink. CH4 fluxes were significantly lowered, close to zero. The impact of natural droughts was similar to, although more modest than, the impact of the experimental water level drawdown. The results are applicable to the short term impacts of the water level drawdown and to climatic conditions in which droughts become more frequent.

Energiapuuharvennus osana metsänkasvatusta ja ilmastonmuutoksen hillitsemistä

The aim of this study was to compare the differences between forest management incorporating energy wood thinning and forest management based on silvicultural recommendations (baseline). Energy wood thinning was substituted for young stand thinning and the first commercial thinning of industrial wood. The study was based on the forest stand data from Southern Finland, which were simulated by the MOTTI-simulator. The main interest was to find out the climatic benefits resulting from carbon sequestration and energy substitution. The value of energy wood was set to substitute it for coal as an alternative energy fuel (emission trade). Other political instruments (Kemera subsidies) were also analysed. The largest carbon dioxide emission reductions were achieved as a combination of carbon sequestration and energy substitution (on average, a 26-90 % increase in discounted present value in the beginning of rotation) compared to the baseline. Energy substitution increased emission reductions more effectively than carbon sequestration, when maintaining dense young stands. According to the study, energy wood thinning as a part of forest management was more profitable than the baseline when the value of carbon dioxide averaged more than 15 €/CO2 and other political subsidies were unchanged. Alternatively, the price of energy wood should on average exceed 21 €/m3 on the roadside in order to be profitable in the absence of political instruments. The most cost-efficient employment of energy wood thinning occured when the dominant height was 12 meters, when energy substitution was taken into account. According to alternative forest management, thinning of sapling stands could be done earlier or less intensely than thinning based on silvicultural recommendations and the present criteria of subsidies. Consequently, the first commercial thinning could be profitable to carry out either as harvesting of industrial wood or energy wood, or as integrated harvesting depending on the costs of the harvesting methods available and the price level of small-size industrial wood compared to energy wood.

Microclimate and gas emissions in dairy buildings : Instrumentation, theory and measurements

The aim of this thesis was to develop measurement techniques and systems for measuring air quality and to provide information about air quality conditions and the amount of gaseous emissions from semi-insulated and uninsulated dairy buildings in Finland and Estonia. Specialization and intensification in livestock farming, such as in dairy production, is usually accompanied by an increase in concentrated environmental emissions. In addition to high moisture, the presence of dust and corrosive gases, and widely varying gas concentrations in dairy buildings, Finland and Estonia experience winter temperatures reaching below -40 ºC and summer temperatures above +30 ºC. The adaptation of new technologies for long-term air quality monitoring and measurement remains relatively uncommon in dairy buildings because the construction and maintenance of accurate monitoring systems for long-term use are too expensive for the average dairy farmer to afford. Though the documentation of accurate air quality measurement systems intended mainly for research purposes have been made in the past, standardised methods and the documentation of affordable systems and simple methods for performing air quality and emissions measurements in dairy buildings are unavailable. In this study, we built three measurement systems: 1) a Stationary system with integrated affordable sensors for on-site measurements, 2) a Wireless system with affordable sensors for off-site measurements, and 3) a Mobile system consisting of expensive and accurate sensors for measuring air quality. In addition to assessing existing methods, we developed simplified methods for measuring ventilation and emission rates in dairy buildings. The three measurement systems were successfully used to measure air quality in uninsulated, semi-insulated, and fully-insulated dairy buildings between the years 2005 and 2007. When carefully calibrated, the affordable sensors in the systems gave reasonably accurate readings. The spatial air quality survey showed high variation in microclimate conditions in the dairy buildings measured. The average indoor air concentration for carbon dioxide was 950 ppm, for ammonia 5 ppm, for methane 48 ppm, for relative humidity 70%, and for inside air velocity 0.2 m/s. The average winter and summer indoor temperatures during the measurement period were -7º C and +24 ºC for the uninsulated, +3 ºC and +20 ºC for the semi-insulated and +10 ºC and +25 ºC for the fully-insulated dairy buildings. The measurement results showed that the uninsulated dairy buildings had lower indoor gas concentrations and emissions compared to fully insulated buildings. Although occasionally exceeded, the ventilation rates and average indoor air quality in the dairy buildings were largely within recommended limits. We assessed the traditional heat balance, moisture balance, carbon dioxide balance and direct airflow methods for estimating ventilation rates. The direct velocity measurement for the estimation of ventilation rate proved to be impractical for naturally ventilated buildings. Two methods were developed for estimating ventilation rates. The first method is applicable in buildings in which the ventilation can be stopped or completely closed. The second method is useful in naturally ventilated buildings with large openings and high ventilation rates where spatial gas concentrations are heterogeneously distributed. The two traditional methods (carbon dioxide and methane balances), and two newly developed methods (theoretical modelling using Fick s law and boundary layer theory, and the recirculation flux-chamber technique) were used to estimate ammonia emissions from the dairy buildings. Using the traditional carbon dioxide balance method, ammonia emissions per cow from the dairy buildings ranged from 7 g day-1 to 35 g day-1, and methane emissions per cow ranged from 96 g day-1 to 348 g day-1. The developed methods proved to be as equally accurate as the traditional methods. Variation between the mean emissions estimated with the traditional and the developed methods was less than 20%. The developed modelling procedure provided sound framework for examining the impact of production systems on ammonia emissions in dairy buildings.

Plant secondary compounds and soil microbial processes in carbon and nitrogen cycling in relation to tree species

The aim of this study was to explore soil microbial activities related to C and N cycling and the occurrence and concentrations of two important groups of plant secondary compounds, terpenes and phenolic compounds, under silver birch (Betula pendula Roth), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as well as to study the effects of volatile monoterpenes and tannins on soil microbial activities. The study site, located in Kivalo, northern Finland, included ca. 70-year-old adjacent stands dominated by silver birch, Norway spruce and Scots pine. Originally the soil was very probably similar in all three stands. All forest floor layers (litter (L), fermentation layer (F) and humified layer (H)) under birch and spruce showed higher rates of CO2 production, greater net mineralisation of nitrogen and higher amounts of carbon and nitrogen in microbial biomass than did the forest floor layers under pine. Concentrations of mono-, sesqui-, di- and triterpenes were higher under both conifers than under birch, while the concentration of total water-soluble phenolic compounds as well as the concentration of condensed tannins tended to be higher or at least as high under spruce as under birch or pine. In general, differences between tree species in soil microbial activities and in concentrations of secondary compounds were smaller in the H layer than in the upper layers. The rate of CO2 production and the amount of carbon in the microbial biomass correlated highly positively with the concentration of total water-soluble phenolic compounds and positively with the concentration of condensed tannins. Exposure of soil to volatile monoterpenes and tannins extracted and fractionated from spruce and pine needles affected carbon and nitrogen transformations in soil, but the effects were dependent on the compound and its molecular structure. Monoterpenes decreased net mineralisation of nitrogen and probably had a toxic effect on part of the microbial population in soil, while another part of the microbes seemed to be able to use monoterpenes as a carbon source. With tannins, low-molecular-weight compounds (also compounds other than tannins) increased soil CO2 production and nitrogen immobilisation by soil microbes while the higher-molecular-weight condensed tannins had inhibitory effects. In conclusion, plant secondary compounds may have a great potential in regulation of C and N transformations in forest soils, but the real magnitude of their significance in soil processes is impossible to estimate.

Informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance market

This thesis studies the informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance (EUA) market. In an efficient market, the market price is unpredictable and profits above average are impossible in the long run. The main research problem is does the EUA price follow a random walk. The method is an econometric analysis of the price series, which includes an autocorrelation coefficient test and a variance ratio test. The results reveal that the price series is autocorrelated and therefore a nonrandom walk. In order to find out the extent of predictability, the price series is modelled with an autoregressive model. The conclusion is that the EUA price is autocorrelated only to a small degree and that the predictability cannot be used to make extra profits. The EUA market is therefore considered informationally efficient, although the price series does not fulfill the requirements of a random walk. A market review supports the conclusion, but it is clear that the maturing of the market is still in process.