Ministers as strategic political leaders? : Strategic political steering after NPM reforms in Finland

This study explores strategic political steering after the New Public Management (NPM) reforms, with emphasis on the new role assigned to Government ministers in Finland. In the NPM model, politicians concentrate on broad, principal issues, while agencies have discretion within the limits set by politicians. In Finland, strategic steering was introduced with Management by Results (MBR), but the actual tools for strategic political steering have been the Government Programme, the Government Strategy Portfolio (GSP) and Frame Budgeting. This study addresses these tools as means of strategic steering conducted by the Cabinet and individual ministers within their respective ministries. The time frame of the study includes the two Lipponen Cabinets between 1995 and 2003. Interviews with fourteen ministers as well as with fourteen top officials were conducted. In addition, administrative reform documents and documents related to strategic steering tools were analysed. The empirical conclusions of the study can be summarised as follows: There were few signs of strategic political steering in the Lipponen Cabinets. Although the Government Programmes of both Cabinets introduced strategic thinking, the strategic guidelines set forth at the beginning of the Programme were not linked to the GSP or to Frame Budgeting. The GSP could be characterised as the collected strategic agendas of each ministry, while there was neither the will nor the courage among Cabinet members to prioritise the projects and to make selections. The Cabinet used Frame Budgeting mainly in the sense of spending limits, not in making strategic allocation decisions. As for the GSP at the departmental level, projects were suggested by top officials, and ministers only approved the suggested list. Frame Budgeting at the departmental level proved to be the most interesting strategic steering tool from ministers viewpoint: they actively participated in defining which issues would need extra financing. Because the chances for extra financing were minimal, ministers had an effect only on a marginal share of the budget. At the departmental level, the study shows that strategic plans were considered the domain of officials. As for strategies concerning specific substances, there was variation in the interest shown by the ministers. A few ministers emphasised the importance of strategic work and led strategy processes. In most cases, however, officials led the process while ministers offered comments on the drafts of strategy documents. The results of this study together with experiences reported in other countries and local politics show that political decision-makers have difficulty operating at the strategic level. The conclusion is that politicians do not have sufficient incentive to perform the strategic role implied by the NPM type of reforms. Overall, the empirical results of the study indicate the power of politics over management reforms.

Ruumiillinen esine, materiaalinen suku : Tutkimus Pyhä Anna itse kolmantena -aiheisista keskiajan puuveistoksista Suomessa

Embobied Object, Material Family. Late-Medieval Wood Sculptures Depicting Saint Anne with the Virgin and Child in Finland Saint Anne, the mother of the Virgin Mary, was one of the most popular saints in Western Europe in the late Middle Ages. She was often depicted with two other figures, the Virgin and the Christ Child (Anna Selbdritt). The dissertation examines the polychrome wood sculptures showing this motif, with a special focus on those remaining in Finland. It investigates the meanings these sculptures had to their observers in the fifteenth-century Finland. The study sheds light to important material heritage which is little known and offers new insights into the cult and imagery of the holy grandmother. Methodologically the study is based on iconology and post-formalist art history, and it appropriates concepts such as spatiality, sanctity, corporeality, and gender. Taking a comparative approach it knits together larger tendencies and local people and incidents. By conflating methodological domains it renews the ways how fragmentary wood sculptures, lacking documentary written sources, can be contextually interpreted and comprehended. The sculptures are analyzed from three angles. Firstly, the study explores the sculptures by focusing on their materiality and facture, which is to consider them as records of their own making. The analysis provides new information concerning the quantity, location, and current condition of the sculptures and it also elucidates problems regarding attribution, dating, display, and craftsmanship. The book presents the results of the empirical study of 45 Saint Anne groups; these works are individually described in the large Appendix. Secondly, the works are contextualized to the specific historical conditions in which they were observed. The study discusses closely the circumstances in the Turku Cathedral around the shrine of Saint Anne, the popular belief, and the piety of individual persons. The sculptures, deemed as the embodiments of the holy characters, interacted with the devotees. Thirdly, the works are examined within the wider theological and ideological currents of the era centered on the body and Incarnation. Saint Anne with the Virgin and Child motif demonstrated the Carnal Trinity, the motherly side of the Holy Trinity. The dissertation argues that Saint Anne was interpreted as the female counterpart or, in a mythical sense, wife of God. Furthermore, the Child s implicit, simultaneous presence as a suffering or dead man imbues the sculptures with a sense of the Passion, thus associating them with the pietà and the Mater dolorosa motifs. The naked Christ Child underlines him as the offering and, eventually, the Eucharistic wafer. The study suggests that the sculptures mediate continuity and the bloodline between the generations by the intertwined and repeated gestures, clothing and positions of the portrayed figures. Regardless of the ostensible homeliness of the sculptures, so readily reiterated by earlier scholars, these sculptures represented creation and birth through the carnal yet holy mothers.

Teatteri liikkeessä : Työväenteatterit Suomen teatterikentällä ja työväenliikkeessä kaksiteatterijärjestelmän syntyyn asti vuonna 1922

Workers' theatres in Finland until 1922 The topic of this dissertation is the workers' theatres in Finland before the year 1922. The main question is: why did these amateur theatres within the workers' associations become part of the professional theatre field in the 1910s by getting state subsidy as local theatre institutions? How is it possible that they received this status even after the civil war in 1918 when new professional theatres were founded all over the country? The study also asks, what kind of position did workers' theatres have in the workers' associations and in the workers' movement, what did the Social Democrats and Communists think of theatre and in particular of workers' theatre, and what kind of repertoire did the workers' theatres perform? It is a particular feature of Finland that the professional theatre field was not organised and that the workers’ movement had a relatively strong political position. The study concludes that some workers' theatres were the only steady theatre institutions in their surroundings, and thus functioned as local popular theatres performing to all social groups. Although amateur-based, they started to resemble professional theatres. Even though the Social Democratic Party did not have a specific theatre policy, the leaders of the Party appreciated and supported the workers' theatres as educational institutions and worked for their artistic improvement. The workers' theatres were also largely approved of and seen as people's theatres thought to unite and educate the nation and the working class. This reveals the need for national consensus, in the 1910s against the Russian government who worked to dissolve the autonomous position of the Finnish state, and after the civil war (1918) against the threat of a communist revolution. A wave of agitating proletarian theatre was felt in Finland in the early 1920s but it was marginalised by the large anti-communist majority.

Kirjan tie lukijalle : Kirjakauppojen vakiintuminen Suomessa 1740 - 1860

Books Paths to Readers describes the history of the origins and consolidation of modern and open book stores in Finland 1740 1860. The thesis approaches the book trade as a part of a print culture. Instead of literary studies choice to concentrate on texts and writers, book history seeks to describe the print culture of a society and how the literary activities and societies interconnect. For book historians, printed works are creations of various individuals and groups: writers, printers, editors, book sellers, censors, critics and finally, readers. They all take part in the creation, delivery and interpretation of printed works. The study reveals the ways selling and distributing books have influenced the printed works and the literary and print culture. The research period 1740 1860 covers the so-called second revolution of the book, or the modernisation of the print culture. The thesis describes the history of 60 book stores and their 96 owners. The study concentrates on three themes: firstly, how the particular book trade network became a central institution for printed works distribution, secondly what were the relations between cosmopolitan European book markets and the national cultural sphere, and thirdly how book stores functioned as cultural institutions and business enterprises. Book stores that have a varied assortment and are targeted to all readers became the main institution for book trade in Finland during 1740 1860. It happened because of three features. First, the book binders monopoly on selling bound copies in Sweden was abolished in 1740s. As a consequence entrepreneurs could concentrate solely to trade activities and offer copies from various publishers at their stores. Secondly the common business model of bartering was replaced by selling copies for cash, first in the German book trade centre Leipzig in 1770s. The change intensified book markets activities and Finnish book stores foreign connections. Thirdly, after Finland was annexed to the Russian empire in 1809, the Grand duchy s administration steered foreign book trade to book stores (because of censorship demands). Up to 1830 s book stores were available only in Helsinki and Turku. During next ten years book stores opened in six regional centres. The early entrepreneurs ran usually vertical businesses consisting of printing, publishing and distribution activities. This strategy lowered costs, eased the delivery of printed works and helped to create elaborated centres for all book activities. These book stores main clientele consisted of the Swedish speaking gentry. During late 1840s various opinion leaders called for the development of a national Finnish print culture, and also book stores. As a result, during the five years before the beginning of the Crimean war (1853 1856) book stores were opened in almost all Finnish towns: at the beginning of the war 36 book stores operated in 21 towns. The later book sellers, mainly functioning in small towns among Finnish speaking people, settled usually strictly for selling activities. Book stores received most of their revenues from selling foreign titles. Swedish, German, French and Belgian (pirate editions of popular French novels) books were widely available for the multilingual gentry. Foreign titles and copies brought in most of the revenues. Censorship inspections or unfavourable custom fees would not limit the imports. Even if the local Finnish print production steadily rose, many copies, even titles, were never delivered via book stores. Only during the 1840 s and 1850 s the most advanced publishers would concentrate on creating publishing programmes and delivering their titles via book stores. Book sellers regulated commissions were small. They got even smaller because of large amounts of unsold copies, various and usual misunderstandings of consignments and accounts or plain accidents that destroyed shipments and warehouses. Also, the cultural aim of a creating large and assortments and the tendency of short selling periods demanded professional entrepreneurship, which many small town book sellers however lacked. In the midst of troublesome business efforts, co-operation and mutual concern of the book market s entrepreneurs were the key elements of the trade, although on local level book sellers would compete, sometimes even ferociously. The difficult circumstances (new censorship decree of 1850, Crimean war) and lack of entrepreneurship, experience and customers meant that half of the book stores opened in 1845 1860 was shut in less than five years. In 1858 the few leading publishers established The Finnish Book Publishers Association. Its first task was to create new business rules and manners for the book trade. The association s activities began to professionalise the whole network, but at the same time the earlier independence of regional publishing and selling enterprises diminished greatly. The consolidation of modern and open book store network in Finland is a history of a slow and complex development without clear signs of a beginning or an end. The ideal book store model was rarely accomplished in its all features. Nevertheless, book stores became the norm of the book trade. They managed to offer larger selections, reached larger clienteles and maintained constant activity better than any other book distribution model. In essential, the book stores methods have not changed up to present times.

Restorative treatment practices and dentist-related factors

This study aimed at elucidating real-life aspects of restorative treatment practices. In addition, dentists' views and perceptions of and variation in restorative treatment practices with respect to dentist-related factors were evaluated. Reasons for placement and replacement of restoration, material selection, posterior restoration longevity, and the use of local anesthesia were assessed on two cross-sectional data sets. Data from the Helsinki Public Dental Service (PDS) included details on 3057 restorations performed by dentists (n=134) during routine clinical work in 2001. The other PDS data from Vantaa were based on 205 patient records of young adults containing information on 1969 restorations investigated retrospectively from 1994-1996 backwards; 51 dentists performed the restorations. In addition, dentists’ self-reported use of local anesthesia and estimates of restoration longevity were investigated by means of a nationwide questionnaire sent to 592 general dental practitioners selected by systematic sampling from the membership list of the Finnish Dental Association in 2004. All data sets included some background information on dentists such as gender, year of birth or graduation, and working sector. In PDS in 2001, primary caries was the reason for placement of restoration more often among patients aged under 19 years than among older patients (p<0.001). Among patients over 36 years of age, replacements represented the majority. Regarding dentist-related factors, replacements of restorations were made by younger dentists more frequently than by older dentists (p<0.001). In PDS in 1994-1996, the replacement rate of posterior restorations was greater among female dentists than among male dentists (p=0.01), especially for amalgams (p=0.008). The mean age of replaced posterior restoration among young adults was 8.9 (SD 5.2) years for amalgam and 2.4 (SD 1.4) years for tooth-colored restorations, the actual replacement rate for all existing posterior restorations being 7% in PDS in 1994-1996. Of all restorative materials used, a clear majority (69%) were composites in PDS in 2001. Local anesthesia was used in 48% of cases and more frequently for older patients (55%) than for patients aged under 13 years (35%) (p<0.001). Younger dentists more often used local anesthesia for primary restoration than did the older dentists (p<0.001), especially for primary teeth (p=0.005). Working sector had an impact on dentists’ self-reported use of local anesthesia and estimates of restoration longevity; public sector dentists reported using local anesthesia more frequently than private sector dentists for Class II (p=0.04) and for Class III restorations (p=0.01). Private sector dentists gave longer estimates of posterior composite longevity than public sector dentists (p=0.001). In conclusion, restorative treatment practices seem to vary according to patient age and also dentist-related factors. Replacements of restorations are common for adults. For children, clear underuse of local anesthesia prevails.

The role of pollen in the changing environmental conditions of Scots pine

Rapid change in climate is challenge for the adaptation of forest trees in the future. In wind pollinated tree species pollen mediated long distance gene flow may provide alleles that are (pre)adapted to a future climate. In order to examine the long distance pollen flow in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), we measured the amount and viability of airborne pollen and flowering phenology in central, northern, and northernmost Finland during four years. Viable airborne pollen grains were detected during female flowering and before local pollen shedding in all study sites. The situation when there was nonlocal pollen in the air lasted from one to four days depending on the year and study site. The amount of nonlocal airborne pollen varied also between years and study sites, the total amount of nonlocal viable pollen in the air was 2.3% from all detected viable pollen grains. The effect of pollen origin on seeds siring ability was studied with artificial pollination experiments. Pollen genotypes originating from southern Finland sired 76% and 48 % of the analysed seeds in competition studies where both pollen origin were introduced simultaneously into the female strobili. We examined the importance of arrival order of pollen grains in to the strobili in a study where pollen genotypes of different origin were introduced in two hours interval. Northern genotypes sired 76% of the analysed seeds when it was injected first, but in the "southern first" experiment both pollen types sired equal amount of seeds. The first pollen grain in the pollen chamber do not always fertilizes the ovum, instead there likely is more complex way of competition between pollen grains. To examine chemically mediated pollen-pollen interactions we conducted in vitro germination experiment where different pollen genotypes had chemical but not physical contact. Both positive and negative effects of interactions were found. We found highly negative effects in germinability of northern pollen grains when they were germinating with southern pollen, and increase in the germinability of southern pollen. There were no variation in the size of the dry pollen grains between pollen origins, and minor variation between different genotypes. After hydration and germination northern pollen grains were larger than southern pollen. Pollen genotypes having high hydration rates had low germinability and tube growth rate, however, germinated pollen grains were larger in size than nongerminated. This supports the suggestion that the early germination and growth of pollen tube is dependent on pollen storage materialsand less dependent on water intake and hydration. Long distance pollen movements and good competition ability of southern pollen makes gene flow possible, although rising temperature and timing of pollen movements may affect pollen competition and the amount of gene flow.

The efficacy and potential risks of controlling sprouting in Finnish birches (Betula spp.) with the fungal decomposer Chondrostereum purpureum

Sprouting of fast-growing broad-leaved trees causes problems in young coniferous stands, under power transmission lines and along roads and railways. Public opinion and the Finnish Forest Certification System oppose the use of chemical herbicides to control sprouting, which means that most areas with problems rely on mechanical cutting. However, cutting is a poor control method for many broad-leaved species because the removal of leaders can stimulate the sprouting of side branches and cut stumps quickly re-sprout. In order to be effective, cutting must be carried out frequently but each cut increases the costs, making this control method increasingly difficult and expensive once begun. As such, alternative methods for sprout control that are both effective and environmentally sound represent a continuing challenge to managers and research biologists. Using biological control agents to prevent sprouting has been given serious consideration recently. Dutch and Canadian researchers have demonstrated the potential of the white-rot fungus Chondrostereum purpureum (Pers. ex Fr.) Pouzar as a control agent of stump sprouting in many hardwoods. These findings have focused the attention of the Finnish forestry community on the utilization of C. purpureum for biocontrol purposes. Primarily, this study sought determines the efficacy of native C. purpureum as an inhibitor of birch stump sprouting in Finland and to clarify its mode of action. Additionally, genotypic variation in Finnish C. purpureum was examined and the environmental risks posed by a biocontrol program using this fungus were assessed. Experimental results of the study demonstrated that C. purpureum clearly affects the sprouting of birch: both the frequency of living stumps and the number of living sprouts per stump were effectively reduced by the treatment. However, the treatment had no effect on the maximum height of new sprouts. There were clear differences among fungal isolates in preventing sprouting and those that possessed high oxidative activities as measured in the laboratory inhibited sprouting most efficiently in the field. The most effective treatment time during the growing season was in early and mid summer (May July). Genetic diversity in Nordic and Baltic populations of C. purpureum was found to be high at the regional scale but locally homogeneous. This natural distribution of diversity means that using local genotypes in biocontrol programs would effectively prevent the introduction of novel genes or genotypes. While a biocontrol program using local strains of C. purpureum would be environmentally neutral, pruned birches that are close to the treatment site would have a high susceptibility to infect by the fungus during the early spring.

Estimation of local forest attributes, utilizing two-phase sampling and auxiliary data

This thesis examines the feasibility of a forest inventory method based on two-phase sampling in estimating forest attributes at the stand or substand levels for forest management purposes. The method is based on multi-source forest inventory combining auxiliary data consisting of remote sensing imagery or other geographic information and field measurements. Auxiliary data are utilized as first-phase data for covering all inventory units. Various methods were examined for improving the accuracy of the forest estimates. Pre-processing of auxiliary data in the form of correcting the spectral properties of aerial imagery was examined (I), as was the selection of aerial image features for estimating forest attributes (II). Various spatial units were compared for extracting image features in a remote sensing aided forest inventory utilizing very high resolution imagery (III). A number of data sources were combined and different weighting procedures were tested in estimating forest attributes (IV, V). Correction of the spectral properties of aerial images proved to be a straightforward and advantageous method for improving the correlation between the image features and the measured forest attributes. Testing different image features that can be extracted from aerial photographs (and other very high resolution images) showed that the images contain a wealth of relevant information that can be extracted only by utilizing the spatial organization of the image pixel values. Furthermore, careful selection of image features for the inventory task generally gives better results than inputting all extractable features to the estimation procedure. When the spatial units for extracting very high resolution image features were examined, an approach based on image segmentation generally showed advantages compared with a traditional sample plot-based approach. Combining several data sources resulted in more accurate estimates than any of the individual data sources alone. The best combined estimate can be derived by weighting the estimates produced by the individual data sources by the inverse values of their mean square errors. Despite the fact that the plot-level estimation accuracy in two-phase sampling inventory can be improved in many ways, the accuracy of forest estimates based mainly on single-view satellite and aerial imagery is a relatively poor basis for making stand-level management decisions.

Plant species diversity of buffer zones in agricultural landscapes: in search of determinants from the local to regional scale

Buffer zones are vegetated strip-edges of agricultural fields along watercourses. As linear habitats in agricultural ecosystems, buffer strips dominate and play a leading ecological role in many areas. This thesis focuses on the plant species diversity of the buffer zones in a Finnish agricultural landscape. The main objective of the present study is to identify the determinants of floral species diversity in arable buffer zones from local to regional levels. This study was conducted in a watershed area of a farmland landscape of southern Finland. The study area, Lepsämänjoki, is situated in the Nurmijärvi commune 30 km to the north of Helsinki, Finland. The biotope mosaics were mapped in GIS. A total of 59 buffer zones were surveyed, of which 29 buffer strips surveyed were also sampled by plot. Firstly, two diversity components (species richness and evenness) were investigated to determine whether the relationship between the two is equal and predictable. I found no correlation between species richness and evenness. The relationship between richness and evenness is unpredictable in a small-scale human-shaped ecosystem. Ordination and correlation analyses show that richness and evenness may result from different ecological processes, and thus should be considered separately. Species richness correlated negatively with phosphorus content, and species evenness correlated negatively with the ratio of organic carbon to total nitrogen in soil. The lack of a consistent pattern in the relationship between these two components may be due to site-specific variation in resource utilization by plant species. Within-habitat configuration (width, length, and area) were investigated to determine which is more effective for predicting species richness. More species per unit area increment could be obtained from widening the buffer strip than from lengthening it. The width of the strips is an effective determinant of plant species richness. The increase in species diversity with an increase in the width of buffer strips may be due to cross-sectional habitat gradients within the linear patches. This result can serve as a reference for policy makers, and has application value in agricultural management. In the framework of metacommunity theory, I found that both mass effect(connectivity) and species sorting (resource heterogeneity) were likely to explain species composition and diversity on a local and regional scale. The local and regional processes were interactively dominated by the degree to which dispersal perturbs local communities. In the lowly and intermediately connected regions, species sorting was of primary importance to explain species diversity, while the mass effect surpassed species sorting in the highly connected region. Increasing connectivity in communities containing high habitat heterogeneity can lead to the homogenization of local communities, and consequently, to lower regional diversity, while local species richness was unrelated to the habitat connectivity. Of all species found, Anthriscus sylvestris, Phalaris arundinacea, and Phleum pretense significantly responded to connectivity, and showed high abundance in the highly connected region. We suggest that these species may play a role in switching the force from local resources to regional connectivity shaping the community structure. On the landscape context level, the different responses of local species richness and evenness to landscape context were investigated. Seven landscape structural parameters served to indicate landscape context on five scales. On all scales but the smallest scales, the Shannon-Wiener diversity of land covers (H') correlated positively with the local richness. The factor (H') showed the highest correlation coefficients in species richness on the second largest scale. The edge density of arable field was the only predictor that correlated with species evenness on all scales, which showed the highest predictive power on the second smallest scale. The different predictive power of the factors on different scales showed a scaledependent relationship between the landscape context and local plant species diversity, and indicated that different ecological processes determine species richness and evenness. The local richness of species depends on a regional process on large scales, which may relate to the regional species pool, while species evenness depends on a fine- or coarse-grained farming system, which may relate to the patch quality of the habitats of field edges near the buffer strips. My results suggested some guidelines of species diversity conservation in the agricultural ecosystem. To maintain a high level of species diversity in the strips, a high level of phosphorus in strip soil should be avoided. Widening the strips is the most effective mean to improve species richness. Habitat connectivity is not always favorable to species diversity because increasing connectivity in communities containing high habitat heterogeneity can lead to the homogenization of local communities (beta diversity) and, consequently, to lower regional diversity. Overall, a synthesis of local and regional factors emerged as the model that best explain variations in plant species diversity. The studies also suggest that the effects of determinants on species diversity have a complex relationship with scale.

Spatial variation of climate and the impact of disturbances on local climate and forest recovery in northern Finland

The structure and function of northern ecosystems are strongly influenced by climate change and variability and by human-induced disturbances. The projected global change is likely to have a pronounced effect on the distribution and productivity of different species, generating large changes in the equilibrium at the tree-line. In turn, movement of the tree-line and the redistribution of species produce feedback to both the local and the regional climate. This research was initiated with the objective of examining the influence of natural conditions on the small-scale spatial variation of climate in Finnish Lapland, and to study the interaction and feedback mechanisms in the climate-disturbances-vegetation system near the climatological border of boreal forest. The high (1 km) resolution spatial variation of climate parameters over northern Finland was determined by applying the Kriging interpolation method that takes into account the effect of external forcing variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, elevation, sea and lake coverage. Of all the natural factors shaping the climate, the geographical position, local topography and altitude proved to be the determining ones. Spatial analyses of temperature- and precipitation-derived parameters based on a 30-year dataset (1971-2000) provide a detailed description of the local climate. Maps of the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, the frost-free period and the growing season indicate that the most favourable thermal conditions exist in the south-western part of Lapland, around large water bodies and in the Kemijoki basin, while the coldest regions are in highland and fell Lapland. The distribution of precipitation is predominantly longitudinally dependent but with the definite influence of local features. The impact of human-induced disturbances, i.e., forest fires, on local climate and its implication for forest recovery near the northern timberline was evaluated in the Tuntsa area of eastern Lapland, damaged by a widespread forest fire in 1960 and suffering repeatedly-failed vegetation recovery since that. Direct measurements of the local climate and simulated heat and water fluxes indicated the development of a more severe climate and physical conditions on the fire-disturbed site. Removal of the original, predominantly Norway spruce and downy birch vegetation and its substitution by tundra vegetation has generated increased wind velocity and reduced snow accumulation, associated with a large variation in soil temperature and moisture and deep soil frost. The changed structural parameters of the canopy have determined changes in energy fluxes by reducing the latter over the tundra vegetation. The altered surface and soil conditions, as well as the evolved severe local climate, have negatively affected seedling growth and survival, leading to more unfavourable conditions for the reproduction of boreal vegetation and thereby causing deviations in the regional position of the timberline. However it should be noted that other factors, such as an inadequate seed source or seedbed, the poor quality of the soil and the intensive logging of damaged trees could also exacerbate the poor tree regeneration. In spite of the failed forest recovery at Tunsta, the position and composition of the timberline and tree-line in Finnish Lapland may also benefit from present and future changes in climate. The already-observed and the projected increase in temperature, the prolonged growing season, as well as changes in the precipitation regime foster tree growth and new regeneration, resulting in an advance of the timberline and tree-line northward and upward. This shift in the distribution of vegetation might be decelerated or even halted by local topoclimatic conditions and by the expected increase in the frequency of disturbances.

Individuals on the Move : Body Condition Dependent Dispersal and Quasi-Local Competition in Metapopulations

Individual movement is very versatile and inevitable in ecology. In this thesis, I investigate two kinds of movement body condition dependent dispersal and small-range foraging movements resulting in quasi-local competition and their causes and consequences on the individual, population and metapopulation level. Body condition dependent dispersal is a widely evident but barely understood phenomenon. In nature, diverse relationships between body condition and dispersal are observed. I develop the first models that study the evolution of dispersal strategies that depend on individual body condition. In a patchy environment where patches differ in environmental conditions, individuals born in rich (e.g. nutritious) patches are on average stronger than their conspecifics that are born in poorer patches. Body condition (strength) determines competitive ability such that stronger individuals win competition with higher probability than weak individuals. Individuals compete for patches such that kin competition selects for dispersal. I determine the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for different ecological scenarios. My models offer explanations for both dispersal of strong individuals and dispersal of weak individuals. Moreover, I find that within-family dispersal behaviour is not always reflected on the population level. This supports the fact that no consistent pattern is detected in data on body condition dependent dispersal. It also encourages the refining of empirical investigations. Quasi-local competition defines interactions between adjacent populations where one population negatively affects the growth of the other population. I model a metapopulation in a homogeneous environment where adults of different subpopulations compete for resources by spending part of their foraging time in the neighbouring patches, while their juveniles only feed on the resource in their natal patch. I show that spatial patterns (different population densities in the patches) are stable only if one age class depletes the resource very much but mainly the other age group depends on it.

Jumping numbers of a simple complete ideal in a two-dimensional regular local ring

The multiplier ideals of an ideal in a regular local ring form a family of ideals parametrized by non-negative rational numbers. As the rational number increases the corresponding multiplier ideal remains unchanged until at some point it gets strictly smaller. A rational number where this kind of diminishing occurs is called a jumping number of the ideal. In this manuscript we shall give an explicit formula for the jumping numbers of a simple complete ideal in a two dimensional regular local ring. In particular, we obtain a formula for the jumping numbers of an analytically irreducible plane curve. We then show that the jumping numbers determine the equisingularity class of the curve.

Computational Techniques for Haplotype Inference and for Local Alignment Significance

This thesis which consists of an introduction and four peer-reviewed original publications studies the problems of haplotype inference (haplotyping) and local alignment significance. The problems studied here belong to the broad area of bioinformatics and computational biology. The presented solutions are computationally fast and accurate, which makes them practical in high-throughput sequence data analysis. Haplotype inference is a computational problem where the goal is to estimate haplotypes from a sample of genotypes as accurately as possible. This problem is important as the direct measurement of haplotypes is difficult, whereas the genotypes are easier to quantify. Haplotypes are the key-players when studying for example the genetic causes of diseases. In this thesis, three methods are presented for the haplotype inference problem referred to as HaploParser, HIT, and BACH. HaploParser is based on a combinatorial mosaic model and hierarchical parsing that together mimic recombinations and point-mutations in a biologically plausible way. In this mosaic model, the current population is assumed to be evolved from a small founder population. Thus, the haplotypes of the current population are recombinations of the (implicit) founder haplotypes with some point--mutations. HIT (Haplotype Inference Technique) uses a hidden Markov model for haplotypes and efficient algorithms are presented to learn this model from genotype data. The model structure of HIT is analogous to the mosaic model of HaploParser with founder haplotypes. Therefore, it can be seen as a probabilistic model of recombinations and point-mutations. BACH (Bayesian Context-based Haplotyping) utilizes a context tree weighting algorithm to efficiently sum over all variable-length Markov chains to evaluate the posterior probability of a haplotype configuration. Algorithms are presented that find haplotype configurations with high posterior probability. BACH is the most accurate method presented in this thesis and has comparable performance to the best available software for haplotype inference. Local alignment significance is a computational problem where one is interested in whether the local similarities in two sequences are due to the fact that the sequences are related or just by chance. Similarity of sequences is measured by their best local alignment score and from that, a p-value is computed. This p-value is the probability of picking two sequences from the null model that have as good or better best local alignment score. Local alignment significance is used routinely for example in homology searches. In this thesis, a general framework is sketched that allows one to compute a tight upper bound for the p-value of a local pairwise alignment score. Unlike the previous methods, the presented framework is not affeced by so-called edge-effects and can handle gaps (deletions and insertions) without troublesome sampling and curve fitting.