MAGIC observations of the February 2014 flare of 1ES 1011+496 and ensuing constraint of the EBL density

Context. In February-March 2014, the MAGIC telescopes observed the high-frequency peaked BL Lac 1ES 1011+496 (z=0.212) in flaring state at very-high energy (VHE, E>100GeV). The flux reached a level more than 10 times higher than any previously recorded flaring state of the source. Aims. Description of the characteristics of the flare presenting the light curve and the spectral parameters of the night-wise spectra and the average spectrum of the whole period. From these data we aim at detecting the imprint of the Extragalactic Background Light (EBL) in the VHE spectrum of the source, in order to constrain its intensity in the optical band. Methods. We analyzed the gamma-ray data from the MAGIC telescopes using the standard MAGIC software for the production of the light curve and the spectra. For the constraining of the EBL we implement the method developed by the H.E.S.S. collaboration in which the intrinsic energy spectrum of the source is modeled with a simple function (< 4 parameters), and the EBL-induced optical depth is calculated using a template EBL model. The likelihood of the observed spectrum is then maximized, including a normalization factor for the EBL opacity among the free parameters. Results. The collected data allowed us to describe the flux changes night by night and also to produce di_erential energy spectra for all nights of the observed period. The estimated intrinsic spectra of all the nights could be fitted by power-law functions. Evaluating the changes in the fit parameters we conclude that the spectral shape for most of the nights were compatible, regardless of the flux level, which enabled us to produce an average spectrum from which the EBL imprint could be constrained. The likelihood ratio test shows that the model with an EBL density 1:07 (-0.20,+0.24)stat+sys, relative to the one in the tested EBL template (Domínguez et al. 2011), is preferred at the 4:6 σ level to the no-EBL hypothesis, with the assumption that the intrinsic source spectrum can be modeled as a log-parabola. This would translate into a constraint of the EBL density in the wavelength range [0.24 μm,4.25 μm], with a peak value at 1.4 μm of λF_ = 12:27^(+2:75)_ (-2:29) nW m^(-2) sr^(-1), including systematics.

Groups, information theory, and Einstein's likelihood principle

We propose a unifying picture where the notion of generalized entropy is related to information theory by means of a group-theoretical approach. The group structure comes from the requirement that an entropy be well defined with respect to the composition of independent systems, in the context of a recently proposed generalization of the Shannon-Khinchin axioms. We associate to each member of a large class of entropies a generalized information measure, satisfying the additivity property on a set of independent systems as a consequence of the underlying group law. At the same time, we also show that Einstein's likelihood function naturally emerges as a byproduct of our informational interpretation of (generally nonadditive) entropies. These results confirm the adequacy of composable entropies both in physical and social science contexts.

Estimating and forecasting generalized fractional Long memory stochastic volatility models

In recent years fractionally differenced processes have received a great deal of attention due to its flexibility in financial applications with long memory. This paper considers a class of models generated by Gegenbauer polynomials, incorporating the long memory in stochastic volatility (SV) components in order to develop the General Long Memory SV (GLMSV) model. We examine the statistical properties of the new model, suggest using the spectral likelihood estimation for long memory processes, and investigate the finite sample properties via Monte Carlo experiments. We apply the model to three exchange rate return series. Overall, the results of the out-of-sample forecasts show the adequacy of the new GLMSV model.