Essays in Behavioral Decision Theory

This thesis studies decision making under uncertainty and how economic agents respond to information. The classic model of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating is often at odds with empirical and experimental results; people exhibit systematic biases in information processing and often exhibit aversion to ambiguity. The aim of this work is to develop simple models that capture observed biases and study their economic implications.

In the first chapter I present an axiomatic model of cognitive dissonance, in which an agent's response to information explicitly depends upon past actions. I introduce novel behavioral axioms and derive a representation in which beliefs are directionally updated. The agent twists the information and overweights states in which his past actions provide a higher payoff. I then characterize two special cases of the representation. In the first case, the agent distorts the likelihood ratio of two states by a function of the utility values of the previous action in those states. In the second case, the agent's posterior beliefs are a convex combination of the Bayesian belief and the one which maximizes the conditional value of the previous action. Within the second case a unique parameter captures the agent's sensitivity to dissonance, and I characterize a way to compare sensitivity to dissonance between individuals. Lastly, I develop several simple applications and show that cognitive dissonance contributes to the equity premium and price volatility, asymmetric reaction to news, and belief polarization.

The second chapter characterizes a decision maker with sticky beliefs. That is, a decision maker who does not update enough in response to information, where enough means as a Bayesian decision maker would. This chapter provides axiomatic foundations for sticky beliefs by weakening the standard axioms of dynamic consistency and consequentialism. I derive a representation in which updated beliefs are a convex combination of the prior and the Bayesian posterior. A unique parameter captures the weight on the prior and is interpreted as the agent's measure of belief stickiness or conservatism bias. This parameter is endogenously identified from preferences and is easily elicited from experimental data.

The third chapter deals with updating in the face of ambiguity, using the framework of Gilboa and Schmeidler. There is no consensus on the correct way way to update a set of priors. Current methods either do not allow a decision maker to make an inference about her priors or require an extreme level of inference. In this chapter I propose and axiomatize a general model of updating a set of priors. A decision maker who updates her beliefs in accordance with the model can be thought of as one that chooses a threshold that is used to determine whether a prior is plausible, given some observation. She retains the plausible priors and applies Bayes' rule. This model includes generalized Bayesian updating and maximum likelihood updating as special cases.

Generalized modal identification of linear and nonlinear dynamic systems

This dissertation is concerned with the problem of determining the dynamic characteristics of complicated engineering systems and structures from the measurements made during dynamic tests or natural excitations. Particular attention is given to the identification and modeling of the behavior of structural dynamic systems in the nonlinear hysteretic response regime. Once a model for the system has been identified, it is intended to use this model to assess the condition of the system and to predict the response to future excitations.

A new identification methodology based upon a generalization of the method of modal identification for multi-degree-of-freedom dynaimcal systems subjected to base motion is developed. The situation considered herein is that in which only the base input and the response of a small number of degrees-of-freedom of the system are measured. In this method, called the generalized modal identification method, the response is separated into "modes" which are analogous to those of a linear system. Both parametric and nonparametric models can be employed to extract the unknown nature, hysteretic or nonhysteretic, of the generalized restoring force for each mode.

In this study, a simple four-term nonparametric model is used first to provide a nonhysteretic estimate of the nonlinear stiffness and energy dissipation behavior. To extract the hysteretic nature of nonlinear systems, a two-parameter distributed element model is then employed. This model exploits the results of the nonparametric identification as an initial estimate for the model parameters. This approach greatly improves the convergence of the subsequent optimization process.

The capability of the new method is verified using simulated response data from a three-degree-of-freedom system. The new method is also applied to the analysis of response data obtained from the U.S.-Japan cooperative pseudo-dynamic test of a full-scale six-story steel-frame structure.

The new system identification method described has been found to be both accurate and computationally efficient. It is believed that it will provide a useful tool for the analysis of structural response data.

Water in silicate glasses

The speciation of water in a variety of hydrous silicate glasses, including simple and rhyolitic compositions, synthesized over a range of experimental conditions with up to 11 weight percent water has been determined using infrared spectroscopy. This technique has been calibrated with a series of standard glasses and provides a precise and accurate method for determining the concentrations of molecular water and hydroxyl groups in these glasses.

For all the compositions studied, most of the water is dissolved as hydroxyl groups at total water contents less than 3-4 weight percent; at higher total water contents, molecular water becomes the dominant species. For total water contents above 3-4 weight percent, the amount of water dissolved as hydroxyl groups is approximately constant at about 2 weight percent and additional water is incorporated as molecular water. Although there are small but measurable differences in the ratio of molecular water to hydroxyl groups at a given total water content among these silicate glasses, the speciation of water is similar over this range of composition. The trends in the concentrations of the H-bearing species in the hydrous glasses included in this study are similar to those observed in other silicate glasses using either infrared or NMR spectroscopy.

The effects of pressure and temperature on the speciation of water in albitic glasses have been investigated. The ratio of molecular water to hydroxyl groups at a given total water content is independent of the pressure and temperature of equilibration for albitic glasses synthesized in rapidly quenching piston cylinder apparatus at temperatures greater than 1000°C and pressures greater than 8 kbar. For hydrous glasses quenched from melts cooled at slower rates (i.e., in internally heated or in air-quench cold seal pressure vessels), there is an increase in the ratio of molecular water to hydroxyl group content that probably reflects reequilibration of the melt to lower temperatures during slow cooling.

Molecular water and hydroxyl group concentrations in glasses provide information on the dissolution mechanisms of water in silicate liquids. Several mixing models involving homogeneous equilibria of the form H_2O + O = 20H among melt species have been explored for albitic melts. These models can account for the measured species concentrations if the effects of non-ideal behavior or mixing of polymerized units are included, or by allowing for the presence of several different types of anhydrous species.

A thermodynamic model for hydrous albitic melts has been developed based on the assumption that the activity of water in the melt is equal to the mole fraction of molecular water determined by infrared spectroscopy. This model can account for the position of the watersaturated solidus of crystalline albite, the pressure and temperature dependence of the solubility of water in albitic melt, and the volumes of hydrous albitic melts. To the extent that it is successful, this approach provides a direct link between measured species concentrations in hydrous albitic glasses and the macroscopic thermodynamic properties of the albite-water system.

The approach taken in modelling the thermodynamics of hydrous albitic melts has been generalized to other silicate compositions. Spectroscopic measurements of species concentrations in rhyolitic and simple silicate glasses quenched from melts equilibrated with water vapor provide important constraints on the thermodynamic properties of these melt-water systems. In particular, the assumption that the activity of water is equal to the mole fraction of molecular water has been tested in detail and shown to be a valid approximation for a range of hydrous silicate melts and the partial molar volume of water in these systems has been constrained. Thus, the results of this study provide a useful thermodynamic description of hydrous melts that can be readily applied to other melt-water systems for which spectroscopic measurements of the H-bearing species are available.

Some problems in nonlinear elasticity

Two separate problems are discussed: axisymmetric equilibrium configurations of a circular membrane under pressure and subject to thrust along its edge, and the buckling of a circular cylindrical shell.

An ordinary differential equation governing the circular membrane is imbedded in a family of n-dimensional nonlinear equations. Phase plane methods are used to examine the number of solutions corresponding to a parameter which generalizes the thrust, as well as other parameters determining the shape of the nonlinearity and the undeformed shape of the membrane. It is found that in any number of dimensions there exists a value of the generalized thrust for which a countable infinity of solutions exist if some of the remaining parameters are made sufficiently large. Criteria describing the number of solutions in other cases are also given.

Donnell-type equations are used to model a circular cylindrical shell. The static problem of bifurcation of buckled modes from Poisson expansion is analyzed using an iteration scheme and pertubation methods. Analysis shows that although buckling loads are usually simple eigenvalues, they may have arbitrarily large but finite multiplicity when the ratio of the shell's length and circumference is rational. A numerical study of the critical buckling load for simple eigenvalues indicates that the number of waves along the axis of the deformed shell is roughly proportional to the length of the shell, suggesting the possibility of a "characteristic length." Further numerical work indicates that initial post-buckling curves are typically steep, although the load may increase or decrease. It is shown that either a sheet of solutions or two distinct branches bifurcate from a double eigenvalue. Furthermore, a shell may be subject to a uniform torque, even though one is not prescribed at the ends of the shell, through the interaction of two modes with the same number of circumferential waves. Finally, multiple time scale techniques are used to study the dynamic buckling of a rectangular plate as well as a circular cylindrical shell; transition to a new steady state amplitude determined by the nonlinearity is shown. The importance of damping in determining equilibrium configurations independent of initial conditions is illustrated.

Effects of particle size ratio on single particle motion in colloidal dispersions

The motion of a single Brownian particle of arbitrary size through a dilute colloidal dispersion of neutrally buoyant bath spheres of another characteristic size in a Newtonian solvent is examined in two contexts. First, the particle in question, the probe particle, is subject to a constant applied external force drawing it through the suspension as a simple model for active and nonlinear microrheology. The strength of the applied external force, normalized by the restoring forces of Brownian motion, is the Péclet number, Pe. This dimensionless quantity describes how strongly the probe is upsetting the equilibrium distribution of the bath particles. The mean motion and fluctuations in the probe position are related to interpreted quantities of an effective viscosity of the suspension. These interpreted quantities are calculated to first order in the volume fraction of bath particles and are intimately tied to the spatial distribution, or microstructure, of bath particles relative to the probe. For weak Pe, the disturbance to the equilibrium microstructure is dipolar in nature, with accumulation and depletion regions on the front and rear faces of the probe, respectively. With increasing applied force, the accumulation region compresses to form a thin boundary layer whose thickness scales with the inverse of Pe. The depletion region lengthens to form a trailing wake. The magnitude of the microstructural disturbance is found to grow with increasing bath particle size -- small bath particles in the solvent resemble a continuum with effective microviscosity given by Einstein's viscosity correction for a dilute dispersion of spheres. Large bath particles readily advect toward the minimum approach distance possible between the probe and bath particle, and the probe and bath particle pair rotating as a doublet is the primary mechanism by which the probe particle is able to move past; this is a process that slows the motion of the probe by a factor of the size ratio. The intrinsic microviscosity is found to force thin at low Péclet number due to decreasing contributions from Brownian motion, and force thicken at high Péclet number due to the increasing influence of the configuration-averaged reduction in the probe's hydrodynamic self mobility. Nonmonotonicity at finite sizes is evident in the limiting high-Pe intrinsic microviscosity plateau as a function of bath-to-probe particle size ratio. The intrinsic microviscosity is found to grow with the size ratio for very small probes even at large-but-finite Péclet numbers. However, even a small repulsive interparticle potential, that excludes lubrication interactions, can reduce this intrinsic microviscosity back to an order one quantity. The results of this active microrheology study are compared to previous theoretical studies of falling-ball and towed-ball rheometry and sedimentation and diffusion in polydisperse suspensions, and the singular limit of full hydrodynamic interactions is noted.

Second, the probe particle in question is no longer subject to a constant applied external force. Rather, the particle is considered to be a catalytically-active motor, consuming the bath reactant particles on its reactive face while passively colliding with reactant particles on its inert face. By creating an asymmetric distribution of reactant about its surface, the motor is able to diffusiophoretically propel itself with some mean velocity. The effects of finite size of the solute are examined on the leading order diffusive microstructure of reactant about the motor. Brownian and interparticle contributions to the motor velocity are computed for several interparticle interaction potential lengths and finite reactant-to-motor particle size ratios, with the dimensionless motor velocity increasing with decreasing motor size. A discussion on Brownian rotation frames the context in which these results could be applicable, and future directions are proposed which properly incorporate reactant advection at high motor velocities.

Edge function method applied to thin plates resting on Winkler foundation

The Edge Function method formerly developed by Quinlan⁽²⁵⁾ is applied to solve the problem of thin elastic plates resting on spring supported foundations subjected to lateral loads the method can be applied to plates of any convex polygonal shapes, however, since most plates are rectangular in shape, this specific class is investigated in this thesis. The method discussed can also be applied easily to other kinds of foundation models (e.g. springs connected to each other by a membrane) as long as the resulting differential equation is linear. In chapter VII, solution of a specific problem is compared with a known solution from literature. In chapter VIII, further comparisons are given. The problems of concentrated load on an edge and later on a corner of a plate as long as they are far away from other boundaries are also given in the chapter and generalized to other loading intensities and/or plates springs constants for Poisson's ratio equal to 0.2

Magnetic alignment of high-aspect ratio microwires into vertical arrays

Fundamental studies of magnetic alignment of highly anisotropic mesostructures can enable the clean-room-free fabrication of flexible, array-based solar and electronic devices, in which preferential orientation of nano- or microwire-type objects is desired. In this study, ensembles of 100 micron long Si microwires with ferromagnetic Ni and Co coatings are oriented vertically in the presence of magnetic fields. The degree of vertical alignment and threshold field strength depend on geometric factors, such as microwire length and ferromagnetic coating thickness, as well as interfacial interactions, which are modulated by varying solvent and substrate surface chemistry. Microwire ensembles with vertical alignment over 97% within 10 degrees of normal, as measured by X-ray diffraction, are achieved over square cm scale areas and set into flexible polymer films. A force balance model has been developed as a predictive tool for magnetic alignment, incorporating magnetic torque and empirically derived surface adhesion parameters. As supported by these calculations, microwires are shown to detach from the surface and align vertically in the presence of magnetic fields on the order of 100 gauss. Microwires aligned in this manner are set into a polydimethylsiloxane film where they retain their vertical alignment after the field has been removed and can subsequently be used as a flexible solar absorber layer. Finally, these microwires arrays can be protected for use in electrochemical cells by the conformal deposition of a graphene layer.

A generalized treatment of the order-disorder transformation in alloys and its effects on their magnetic properties

A theory of the order-disorder transformation is developed in complete generality. The general theory is used to calculate long range order parameters, short range order parameters, energy, and phase diagrams for a face centered cubic binary alloy. The theoretical results are compared to the experimental determination of the copper-gold system, Values for the two adjustable parameters are obtained.

An explanation for the behavior of magnetic alloys is developed, Curie temperatures and magnetic moments of the first transition series elements and their alloys in both the ordered and disordered states are predicted. Experimental agreement is excellent in most cases. It is predicted that the state of order can effect the magnetic properties of an alloy to a considerable extent in alloys such as Ni₃Mn. The values of the adjustable parameter used to fix the level of the Curie temperature, and the adjustable parameter that expresses the effect of ordering on the Curie temperature are obtained.

On an embedding property of generalized Carter subgroups

If E and F are saturated formations, we say that E is strongly contained in F if for any solvable group G with E-subgroup, E, and F-subgroup, F, some conjugate of E is contained in F. In this paper, we investigate the problem of finding the formations which strongly contain a fixed saturated formation E.

Our main results are restricted to formations, E, such that E = {G|G/F(G) ϵT}, where T is a non-empty formation of solvable groups, and F(G) is the Fitting subgroup of G. If T consists only of the identity, then E=N, the class of nilpotent groups, and for any solvable group, G, the N-subgroups of G are the Carter subgroups of G.

We give a characterization of strong containment which depends only on the formations E, and F. From this characterization, we prove:

If T is a non-empty formation of solvable groups, E = {G|G/F(G) ϵT}, and E is strongly contained in F, then

(1) there is a formation V such that F = {G|G/F(G) ϵV}.

(2) If for each prime p, we assume that T does not contain the class, S_p’, of all solvable p’-groups, then either E = F, or F contains all solvable groups.

This solves the problem for the Carter subgroups.

We prove the following result to show that the hypothesis of (2) is not redundant:

If R = {G|G/F(G) ϵS_r’}, then there are infinitely many formations which strongly contain R.

A generalized Hausdorff dimension for functions and sets

Let E be a compact subset of the n-dimensional unit cube, 1_n, and let C be a collection of convex bodies, all of positive n-dimensional Lebesgue measure, such that C contains bodies with arbitrarily small measure. The dimension of E with respect to the covering class C is defined to be the number

d_C(E) = sup(β:H_{β, C}(E) > 0),

where H_{β, C} is the outer measure

inf(Ʃm(C_i)^β:UC_i Ↄ E, C_i ϵ C) .

Only the one and two-dimensional cases are studied. Moreover, the covering classes considered are those consisting of intervals and rectangles, parallel to the coordinate axes, and those closed under translations. A covering class is identified with a set of points in the left-open portion, 1’_n, of 1_n, whose closure intersects 1_n - 1’_n. For n = 2, the outer measure H_{β, C} is adopted in place of the usual:

Inf(Ʃ(diam. (C_i))^β: UC_i Ↄ E, C_i ϵ C),

for the purpose of studying the influence of the shape of the covering sets on the dimension d_C(E).

If E is a closed set in 1₁, let M(E) be the class of all non-decreasing functions μ(x), supported on E with μ(x) = 0, x ≤ 0 and μ(x) = 1, x ≥ 1. Define for each μ ϵ M(E),

d_C(μ) = lim/c → inf/0 log ∆μ(c)/log c , (c ϵ C)

where ∆μ(c) = v/x (μ(x+c) – μ(x)). It is shown that

d_C(E) = sup (d_C(μ):μ ϵ M(E)).

This notion of dimension is extended to a certain class Ӻ of sub-additive functions, and the problem of studying the behavior of d_C(E) as a function of the covering class C is reduced to the study of d_C(f) where f ϵ Ӻ. Specifically, the set of points in 1₁,

(*) {d_B(F), d_C(f)): f ϵ Ӻ}

is characterized by a comparison of the relative positions of the points of B and C. A region of the form (*) is always closed and doubly-starred with respect to the points (0, 0) and (1, 1). Conversely, given any closed region in 1₂, doubly-starred with respect to (0, 0) and (1, 1), there are covering classes B and C such that (*) is exactly that region. All of the results are shown to apply to the dimension of closed sets E. Similar results can be obtained when a finite number of covering classes are considered.

In two dimensions, the notion of dimension is extended to the class M, of functions f(x, y), non-decreasing in x and y, supported on 1₂ with f(x, y) = 0 for x · y = 0 and f(1, 1) = 1, by the formula

d_C(f) = lim/s · t → inf/0 log ∆f(s, t)/log s · t , (s, t) ϵ C

where

∆f(s, t) = V/x, y (f(x+s, y+t) – f(x+s, y) – f(x, y+t) + f(x, t)).

A characterization of the equivalence d_C1(f) = d_C2(f) for all f ϵ M, is given by comparison of the gaps in the sets of products s · t and quotients s/t, (s, t) ϵ C_i (I = 1, 2).