Characteristic rainfall for warning of debris flows

A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow. The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase, and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows. Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin, Yunnan Province, in southwestern China, demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfall. It was found that the characteristic rainfall corresponds to the daily rainfall of 90% cumulative probability by analyzing the basin's daily rainfall histogram. The result provides a simple and useful method for estimating a debris-flow warning rainfall threshold from the daily rainfall distribution. It was applied to estimate the debris-flow warning rainfall threshold for the Subaohe basin, a watershed in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake zone with many physical characteristics similar to those of the Jiangjia basin.

Relationship between strain localization and catastrophic rupture

In order to explore a prior warning to catastrophic rupture of heterogeneous media, like rocks, the present study investigates the relationship between surface strain localization and catastrophic rupture. Instrumented observations on the evolution of surface strain field and the catastrophic rupture of a rock under uniaxial compression were carried out. It is found that the evolution of surface strain field displays two phases: at the early stage, the strain field keeps nearly uniform with weak fluctuations increasing slowly; but at the stage prior to catastrophic rupture, a certain accelerating localization develops and a localized zone emerges. Based on the measurements, an analysis was performed with local mean-field approximation. More importantly, it is found that the scale of localized zone is closely related to the catastrophic rupture strain and the rupture strain can be calculated in accord with the local-mean-field model satisfactorily. This provides a possible clue to the forecast of catastrophic rupture. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydroxylated metabolites of polychlorinated biphenyls and their endocrine disrupting mechanism

Hydroxylated polychlorinated biphenyls (OH-PCBs a group of main active metabolites of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCBs) which are typical persistent organic pollutants (Pops) I have been identified in wild animals and human. The endocrine disruption of OH-PCBs has been drawn great attention due to the similarity of their chemical structures to the natural estrogens and thyroid hormones. The metabolic pathways of PCBs, the levels of OHPCBs in organism, the endocrine disruption and other adverse effects of OH-PCBs are reviewed. The further investigation of OH-PCBs will not only reveal the toxicological mechanism of PCBs, but also can lay scientific basis for setting up the risk assessment of POPs contamination and early-warning system in China.

A Novel Architecture of Vision Chip for Fast Traffic Lane Detection and FPGA Implementation

This paper presents a novel architecture of vision chip for fast traffic lane detection (FTLD). The architecture consists of a 32*32 SIMD processing element (PE) array processor and a dual-core RISC processor. The PE array processor performs low-level pixel-parallel image processing at high speed and outputs image features for high-level image processing without I/O bottleneck. The dual-core processor carries out high-level image processing. A parallel fast lane detection algorithm for this architecture is developed. The FPGA system with a CMOS image sensor is used to implement the architecture. Experiment results show that the system can perform the fast traffic lane detection at 50fps rate. It is much faster than previous works and has good robustness that can operate in various intensity of light. The novel architecture of vision chip is able to meet the demand of real-time lane departure warning system.

大气环境预警指标体系及方法的研究－－以沈阳市大气环境为例

本文对大气环境预警指标体系和方法进行了研究。综合已有观点，总结出指标体系应满足的9个原则；在深入分析制约大气环境质量的基础上，建立了包括污染源，污染物和污染控制因素的指标体系。同时，以沈阳市大气环境为例，采用对比评价和静态模糊评价相结合的方法进行了大气环境预警实践。最后，针对本文的结果和分析，对沈阳市大气污染控制提出了几点对策几措施。

黄土丘陵区纸坊沟流域农业生态安全预警分析

为黄土丘陵区生态安全预警及其建设提供科学依据。【方法】以纸坊沟流域近70年代表年份生态安全态势及影响因子的分析为基础,参考压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型建立农业生态安全预警指标体系。运用层次分析法(AHP)和德尔菲法(Delphi)确定指标权重,采用综合指数法计算生态安全质量值,用演化轴解释生态安全预警模式,定量评价该流域1938~2005年的农业生态安全状况,并预测2015年的发展趋势。【结果】纸坊沟流域1938年处于蓝灯区,无需预警;1958年为黑灯区,需作生态安全恶化速度预警;1975和1985年处于红灯区,需作生态安全较差状态预警;1995年处于黄灯区,2005和2015年继续向良好方向演化,均不需预警,但从发展趋势来看,预计人口密度于2020年左右进入警戒状态。【结论】研究结果与该流域的实际情况相符,该指标体系和生态安全预警模型可以应用于黄土丘陵区。

Development of rRNA and rDNA-targeted probes for fluorescence in situ hybridization to detect Heterosigma akashiwo (Raphidophyceae)

Heterosigma akashiwo (Hada) is a fragile, fish-killing alga. Efforts to understand and prevent blooms due to this harmful species to mitigate the impact on aquaculture require the development of methods for rapid and precise identification and quantification, so that adequate warning of a harmful algal bloom may be given. Here, we report the development and application of rRNA and rDNA-targeted oligonucleotide probes for fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) to aid in the detection and enumeration of H. akashiwo. The designed probes were species specific, showing no cross-reactivity with four common HAB causative species: Prorocentrum micans Ehrenberg, P. minimum (Pavillard) Schiller, Alexandrium tarmarense (Lebour) Balech, and Skeletonema costatum (Greville) Cleve, or with four other microalgae, including Gymnodinium sp. Stein, Platy-monas cordiformis (Karter) Korsch, Skeletonema sp.1 Greville and Skeletonema sp.2. The rRNA-targeted probe hybridized to cytoplasmic rRNA, showing strong green fluorescence throughout the whole cell, while cells labeled by rDNA-targeted probe exhibited exclusively fluorescent nucleus. The detection protocols were optimized and could be completed within an hour. For rRNA and rDNA probes, about a corresponding 80% and 70% of targeted cells could be identified and quantified during the whole growth circle, despite the inapparent variability in the average probe reactivity. The established FISH was proved promising for specific, rapid, precise, and quantitative detection of H. akashiwo. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An analysis of the recent severe storm surge disaster events in China

The economic loss caused by the storm surge disasters is much higher than that caused by any other marine disaster in China, the loss from the severe storm surge disaster being the highest. Statistics show that there were 62 typhoon landings over the east-southeast coast of China since 1990, three of which, occurring in 1992, 1994 and 1997, respectively, caused the most severe damage. The direct economic losses due to these events are 9.3, 17.0 and 30 billion yuan (RMB, or about 1.7, 2.6 and 3.8 billion USD, respectively), which is much greater than the loss of 5.5 billion yuan (RMB) on an average every year during the 1989-1991 period. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the damage caused by the three events and presents an overview of progress of precautions against storm surge disaster in China. The suggested counter measures to mitigate the loss from the severe storm surge disasters in China is as follows: (1) Raise the whole society awareness of precaution against severe storm surge disaster; (2) Work out a new plan for building sea walls; (3) Improve and perfect the available warning and disaster relief command system; (4) Develop the insurance service in order to promptly mitigate the loss caused by severe storm surge disaster event.

Effect of imitated global warming on Delta C-13 values in seven plant species growing in Tibet alpine meadows

Open-top chambers were used to estimate the possible effects of global warming on delta C-13 of seven plant species grown in alpine meadow ecosystem. The delta C-13 values of plant species were lower after long-term growth in open-top chambers. In the course of experiment, temperature significantly increased inside the chambers by 4 degrees C. Plant species grown at a lower elevation above sea level had higher delta C-13 values as compared to those grown at a higher elevation. This was in accordance with the effect of open-top chamber on delta C-13 values in plants. Greater availability of CO2 and lower water vapor as indicated by an increase in discrimination against (CO2)-C-13, probably result in more negative delta C-13 values of plants because higher stomatal conductance increases availability of CO2 and causes greater discrimination against (CO2)-C-13. The plant species studied could be the indicator species for testing global warming by the change in carbon isotope ratios at the two growth temperatures.

滚石机理及滚石灾害评价研究

Rockfall is a geological evolution process involving detachment of blocks or boulders from a slope face, then their free falls, bouncing, rolling or sliding, and finally deposition near the toe of the slope. Many facts indicate that the rockfall can cause hazards to peoples, and it can be regarded as a geological hazard. A rockfall event may only involve a boulder or rock, and also several ones. When there are peoples, buildings, or other man-made establishments within the scope of rockfall trajectory, losses will be possibly induced in tenns of human lives or damages to these facilities. Researches into mechanism, kinematics, dynamics, hazard assessment, risk analysis, and mitigation measures of rockfalls are extremely necessary and important. Occurrence of rockfall is controlled by a lot of conditions, mainly including topographical, geomorphic, geological ones and triggering factors. The rockfall especially in mountainous areas, has different origins, and occurs to be frequent, unexpected, uncertain, in groups, periodic and sectional. The characterization and classification of the rockfalls not only increase knowledge about rockfall mechanism, but also can instruct mitigation of the hazards. In addition, stability of potential rockfalls have various sensitivity to different triggering factors and changes of geometrical conditions. Through theoretical analyses, laboratory experiments and field tests, the author presents some back-analysis methods for friction coefficients of sliding and rolling, and restitution coefficients. The used input data can be obtained economically and accurately in the field. Through deep studies on hazard assessment methods and analysis of factors influencing rockfall hazard, this paper presents a new assessment methodology consisting of preliminary assessment and detailed one. From the application in a 430 km long stretch of the Highway, which is located between Paksho and Nyingtri in Tibet, the methodology can be applicable for the rockfall hazard assessment in complex and difficult terrains. In addition, risk analyses along the stretch are conducted by computing the probability of encountering rockfalls and life losses resulting from rockfall impacts. Rockfall hazards may be mitigated by avoiding hazardous areas, clearness of dangerous rocks, reinforcement, obstructing the rockfalls, leading the rockfalls, warning and monitoring for rockfalls, etc. Seen from present remedial level of rockfall hazards, different mitigation measures, economical and effective buffering units, monitoring tecliniques and consciousness of environmental protection for rockfall mitigations should be further developed.

内容预警对说服的影响

There are still some controversies surrounding the effects of forewarning of message content on persuasion and the mediating mechanism operating when persons are forwarned of message content on high involvement. Two experiments were designed to investigate these questionable points. It was found: 1. The effects of a warning on persuasion depends on the extent of involvement. Subjects who were highly involved in the topic showed resistance to persuasion. 2. However, forewarning have different effects on persuasion in the low-involvement condition according to some sub-variables (such as commitment, self -presentation motive, etc.). 3. The mechanism mediating the resistance to persuasion conveyed by a warning concerning the content of an impending discrepand communication on a highly involving topic is very complicated. The experiments indicated that anticipatory counterargument is a typical cognitive response, besides, source degoration and "tubborn refusal to give in" are also usually found.