民众社会风险认知的影响因素及作用机制

Risk perception is one of important subjects in management psychology and cognitive psychology. It is of great value in the theory and practice to investigate the social risk events that the public cares a lot especially in this social transition period. Furthermore, this study explored the factors that influence the risk perception and the results caused by risk perception. A survey including 30 hazards and 8 risk attributes was designed and distributed to about 3, 200 residents of 8 districts, Beijing. The major findings are listed as following： Firstly, combining the methods of system science and psychology, GAE program was used to indentify 7 groups of social risk events, such as national safe, government management, social stability, general mood of society, economic and finance, resources and environment & daily life problems. This study provided substance for the following studies and it was also a new attempt in research method which is of certain reference value for the related researches. Secondly, a scale of societal risk perception was designed and 2 factors were identified (Dread Risk & Unknown Risk). Reliability analysis, EFA and CFA show the reliability and validity of the societal risk questionnaire is good enough. The investigation using this scale showed that older participants and higher socioeconomic status perceived the societal hazards to be more threatening than did younger participants and lower socioeconomic status. However, there is no gender difference. Thirdly, structural equation model was used to analyze the influence factors and mechanism of societal risk perception. Risk taking, government support and social justice could influence societal risk perception directly. Government support moderated the relationship between government trust and societal risk perception. Societal risk perception influenced life satisfaction, public policy preferences and social development belief. Multi-group analysis was used to find out that the participants who have different socioeconomic status express different mechanism. Fourthly, the result of the research was used to explore the risk event of 2008 Olympic game. The results showed that government support and preparation of Olympic game influenced societal risk perception directly. Preparation moderated the relationship between government trust and risk perception. Risk perception influenced worry, effect of Olympic game and belief of successl. This result proved that risk perception could be used as an indicator. The indictor of risk perception was used to identify the characteristics of higher risk perception group. Finally, suggestions to the related decision were provide to the government.

风险偏好为什么是不稳定的？——后悔调节风险偏好的理论探索

Emotion is one of the most popular spots in recent decision making research, while regret is always being considered as the most relevant emotion with decision making. Current article firstly reviewed the literature of regret theory to date to profile the relation between regret and decision making under uncertainty through three mainlines: experienced regret, anticipated regret and regret orientation, respectively. And then, based on the theory of regret regulation raised by Zeelenberg recently, we came up with a theory of risk preference regulated by regret. Then three studies were conducted under the current framework, by using experiment, survey, and quasi experiment design. The major findings were below: In study 1, when playing ultimatum game, risk preference in decision making can be determined by experienced regret and anticipated regret of risk aversion, which made individual risk taking; In study 2, survey showed that risk orientation was negatively related with risk taking (health/safety, recreational and social); In study 3, when asked the Asian Disease Problem, risk preference can be determined by the coherence of the risk preference between the past decision and the current alternative. Individuals much more like alternative with the same risk preference of the past decision. A two way interaction was found, regret orientation, as a personality, was found as a moderator. Individuals with high regret orientation were more sensitive to the coherence of the risk preference than those with low regret orientation. Three studies provide fruitful evidences for the theory of risk preference regulated by regret in different prospective, show us the function of regret in decision making.