民众社会风险认知的影响因素及作用机制

Risk perception is one of important subjects in management psychology and cognitive psychology. It is of great value in the theory and practice to investigate the social risk events that the public cares a lot especially in this social transition period. Furthermore, this study explored the factors that influence the risk perception and the results caused by risk perception. A survey including 30 hazards and 8 risk attributes was designed and distributed to about 3, 200 residents of 8 districts, Beijing. The major findings are listed as following： Firstly, combining the methods of system science and psychology, GAE program was used to indentify 7 groups of social risk events, such as national safe, government management, social stability, general mood of society, economic and finance, resources and environment & daily life problems. This study provided substance for the following studies and it was also a new attempt in research method which is of certain reference value for the related researches. Secondly, a scale of societal risk perception was designed and 2 factors were identified (Dread Risk & Unknown Risk). Reliability analysis, EFA and CFA show the reliability and validity of the societal risk questionnaire is good enough. The investigation using this scale showed that older participants and higher socioeconomic status perceived the societal hazards to be more threatening than did younger participants and lower socioeconomic status. However, there is no gender difference. Thirdly, structural equation model was used to analyze the influence factors and mechanism of societal risk perception. Risk taking, government support and social justice could influence societal risk perception directly. Government support moderated the relationship between government trust and societal risk perception. Societal risk perception influenced life satisfaction, public policy preferences and social development belief. Multi-group analysis was used to find out that the participants who have different socioeconomic status express different mechanism. Fourthly, the result of the research was used to explore the risk event of 2008 Olympic game. The results showed that government support and preparation of Olympic game influenced societal risk perception directly. Preparation moderated the relationship between government trust and risk perception. Risk perception influenced worry, effect of Olympic game and belief of successl. This result proved that risk perception could be used as an indicator. The indictor of risk perception was used to identify the characteristics of higher risk perception group. Finally, suggestions to the related decision were provide to the government.

风险认知是管理心理学与认知科学的前沿课题之一，由于文化背景和社会制度的差异，在处于我国社会经济转型时期，通过确立民众最关心的社会风险事件，来构建以社会风险认知为核心的影响因素及作用机制模型，具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。本研究采用问卷调查的方法，对北京市8个内城区将近3,200名被试进行调查研究，获得了如下结论： 第一、本研究将系统科学的文本挖掘法与传统心理学研究方法相互结合，通过采用”群体研讨环境（GAE）”计算机平台从非结构化的质性数据中确立了当前困扰我国民众的七类社会风险事件（即国家安全、政府执政、社会稳定、社会风气，金融经济、资源环境和日常生活）。该研究不仅为后续研究奠定了基础，而且其关于研究方法的探讨亦可为今后同类研究提供借鉴。 第二、编制民众的社会风险认知问卷，确立了风险担忧与风险熟知的两维结构，并采用所编问卷对不同群体的社会风险认知状况进行了测量，其结果表明：随着年龄的增长，民众的社会风险认知水平也随之增加；其社会经济地位越高，社会风险认知水平也就越高，但在性别上不存在显著差异。 第三、本研究所提出以社会风险认知为核心的影响因素与作用机制模型得到了大规模调查样本的验证：首先，从影响因素来看，民众的风险倾向、预期的政府支持和社会公平对其社会风险认知水平有直接影响，而政府信任则通过预期政府支持的中介作用对民众的社会风险认知产生间接影响；其次，从作用机制来看，民众的社会风险认知水平不仅对其生活满意度产生负性影响，而且还会对民众关于今后政策的支持度和社会发展信心产生负性的影响。同时，进一步的分析表明社会经济地位高、低不同的两类群体在影响因素和作用机制上的表现不同。 第四、将前期研究的结论应用于奥运风险研究，其结果表明：首先，从影响机制来看，民众的奥运风险认知不仅会受到政府信任的直接影响，还会通过民众对奥运准备状况评价的中介作用对之产生间接影响；其次，从作用机制来看，奥运风险认知将会对民众关于奥运会期间各项问题的担心程度、奥运会成功举办的信心指数和奥运会给我国与民众所带来的积极作用产生负性影响。最后，我们以奥运风险认知作为预警指标，确定出高奥运风险的人群构成，其结果可为政府相关决策提供建议。