Comparison Between Lurr And State Vector Analysis Before Strong Earthquakes In Southern California Since 1980

There are seven strong earthquakes with M >= 6.5 that occurred in southern California during the period from 1980 to 2005. In this paper, these earthquakes were studied by the LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) method and the State Vector method to detect if there are anomalies before them. The results show that LURR anomalies appeared before 6 earthquakes out of 7 and State Vector anomalies appeared before all 7 earthquakes. For the LURR method, the interval between maximum LURR value and the forthcoming earthquake is 1 to 19 months, and the dominant mean interval is about 10.7 months. For the State Vector method, the interval between the maximum modulus of increment State Vector and the forthcoming earthquake is from 3 to 27 months, but the dominant mean interval between the occurrence time of the maximum State Vector anomaly and the forthcoming earthquake is about 4.7 months. The results also show that the minimum valid space window scale for the LURR and the State Vector is a circle with a radius of 100 km and a square of 3 degrees 3 degrees, respectively. These results imply that the State Vector method is more effective for short-term earthquake prediction than the LURR method, however the LURR method is more effective for location prediction than the State Vector method.

Spatial and Temporal Variation of LURR and Its Implication for the Tendency of Earthquake Occurrence in Southern California

Based on the theory of LURR and its recent development, spatial and temporal variation of Y/Y-c (value of LURR/critical value of LURR) in the Southern California region during the period from 1980 through March, 2001 was studied. According to the previous study on the fault system and stress field in Southern California, we zoned the Southern California region into 11 parts in each of which the stress field is almost uniform. With the time window of one year, time moving step of three months, space window of a circle region with a radius of 100 km and space moving step of 0.25 degree in latitude and longitude direction, the evolution of Y/Y-c were snapshot. The scanning results show that obvious Y/Y-c anomalies occurred before 5/6 of strong earthquakes considered with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater. The critical regions of Y/Y-c are near the epicenters of the strong earthquakes and the Y/Y-c anomalies occur months to years prior to the earthquakes. The tendency of earthquake occurrence in the California region is briefly discussed on the basis of the examination of Y/Y-c.

Manipulation of host density affects infestation of a peritrich ciliate (Epistylis lacustris) on a calanoid copepod (Leptodiaptomus minutus) in Crystal Lake, Wisconsin, USA

Specimens of the calanoid copepod, Leptodiaptomus minutus, collected in June 1994 in oligotrophic: north temperate Crystal Lake, were infested with the stalked ciliate Epistylis lacustris. E. lacustris was highly specific to L. minutus and no other coexisting zooplankters were infested. Excluding nauplii, nearly 70% of copepods carried 1-20 ciliates, although the maximum load was as high as 250 ciliates. A lower percentage of nauplii were infested by the ciliate; those that were infested had a lower ciliate load than other copepod stages. Infestation by ciliates had no significant influence on the average egg number of female copepods. In a field experiment, higher copepod densities in enclosures resulted in a significantly higher infestation rate, but the ciliate load per individual copepod did not differ significantly among treatments.

Nutrient dynamics and the eutrophication of shallow lakes Kasumigaura (Japan), Donghu (PR China), and Okeechobee (USA)

We compared the nutrient dynamics of three lakes that have been heavily influenced by point and non-point source pollution and other human activities. The lakes, located in Japan (Lake Kasumigaura), People's Republic of China (Lake Donghu), and the USA (Lake Okeechobee), all are relatively large(>30 km(2)), very shallow (<4 m mean depth), and eutrophic. In all three lakes we found strong interactions among the sediments, water column, and human activities. Important processes affecting nutrient dynamics included nitrogen fixation, light limitation due to resuspended sediments, and intense grazing on algae by cultured fish. As a result of these complex interactions, simple empirical models developed to predict in-lake responses of total phosphorus and algal biomass to external nutrient loads must be used with caution. While published models may provide 'good' results, in terms of model output matching actual data, this may not be due to accurate representation of lake processes in the models. The variable nutrient dynamics that we observed among the three study lakes appears to be typical for shallow lake systems. This indicates that a greater reliance on lake-specific research may be required for effective management, and a lesser role of inter-lake generalization than is possible for deeper, dimictic lake systems. Furthermore, accurate predictions of management impacts in shallow eutrophic lakes may require the use of relatively complex deterministic modeling tools. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fracture properties of PECVD silicon nitride thin films by long rectangular memrane bulge test

Bulge test combined with a refined load-deflection model for long rectangular membrane was applied to determine the mechanical and fracture properties of PECVD silicon nitride (SiNx) thin films. Plane-strain modulus E-ps prestress s(0), and fracture strength s(max) of SiNx thin films deposited both on bare Si substrate and on SiO2-topped Si substrate were extracted. The SiNx thin films on different substrates possess similar values of E-ps and s(0) but quite different values of s(max). The statistical analysis of fracture strengths were performed by Weibull distribution function and the fracture origins were further predicted.

Fracture properties of silicon carbide thin films charcterized by bulge test of long membranes

The mechanical properties and fracture behavior of silicon carbide (3C-SiC) thin films grown on silicon substrates were characterized using bulge testing combined with a refined load-deflection model for long rectangular membranes. Plane-strain modulus E-ps, prestress so, and fracture strength s(max) for 3C-SiC thin films with thickness of 0.40 mu m and 1.42 mu m were extracted. The E, values of SiC are strongly dependent on grain orientation. The thicker SIC film presents lower so than the thinner film due to stress relaxation. The s(max) values decrease with increasing film thickness. The statistical analysis of the fracture strength data were achieved by Weibull distribution function and the fracture origins were predicted.