8 resultados para Area Under Curve

em Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid Portal


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The phenomena of the 'piling up' and 'sinking-in' of surface profiles in conical indentation in elastic-plastic solids with work hardening are studied using dimensional and finite-element analysis. The degree of sinking in and piling up is shown to depend on the ratio of the initial yield strength Y to Young's modulus E and on the work-hardening exponent n. The widely used procedure proposed by Oliver and Pharr for estimating contact depth is then evaluated systematically. By comparing the contact depth obtained directly from finite-element calculations with that obtained from the initial unloading slope using the Oliver-Pharr procedure, the applicability of the procedure is discussed.

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杜鹃属(Rhododendron L.)是中国种子植物中最大的属,其现代分布和分化中心是我国西南部的横断山区和东喜马拉雅地区。我国西部、西南部的云南、四川、西藏等地共有杜鹃达450种,仅特有种就有约300种。对杜鹃属分布的深入研究是横断山区生物多样性保护不可缺少的重要部分。 由于物种分布与环境因子之间存在着紧密的联系,利用环境因子作为预测物种分布模型的变量是当前最普遍的建模思路。但是绝大多数物种分布预测模型都遇到了难以解决的“高维小样本”问题――模型在标本数据不足时无法给出合理的预测,或者模型无法处理大量的环境变量。机器学习领域的理论和实践已经证明,基于结构风险最小化原理的支持向量机(Support Vector Machine, SVM)算法非常适合“高维小样本”的分类问题。为了探索其应用在物种分布预测问题上的可能性,本文创新性的实现了基于SVM算法的物种分布预测系统。然后,本文以30个杜鹃属(Rhododendron L.)物种为检验对象,利用其标本数据和11个1km的栅格环境变量图层作为模型变量,预测其在中国的潜在分布区。本文通过全面的模型评估——专家评估,ROC (Receiver Operator Characteristic)曲线和曲线下方面积AUC (Area Under the Curve)——来比较模型的性能。试验结果表明,我们所实现的以SVM为核心的物种分布预测系统无论在计算速度还是预测效果上都远远优于当前广泛使用的GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction)预测系统。 之后,本文进一步探讨了SVM预测系统预测效果与环境变量维数和标本点个数的关系。试验结果表明,对于只有少量标本点的物种SVM的预测结果仍然具有相当的合理性。由此可见, SVM预测系统很好的解决了以前众多模型无法克服的稀有种和标本点稀少的物种的潜在分布区模拟问题。同时本文发现大的环境维数(高维)对于物种潜在分布区的预测有着决定性的作用,因此模型处理高维问题的能力显得至关重要。 最后,我们使用中国所有可获取的杜鹃属标本数据,以及83个1km的栅格环境变量图层,对400种杜鹃属物种的潜在分布区进行预测。根据预测出来的物种潜在分布区,我们得到了中国杜鹃属物种潜在多样性分布格局,特有物种潜在多样性分布格局,濒危杜物种潜在的分布格局,各亚属物种潜在分布格局,以及不同生活型物种潜在多样性分布格局。这些分布区图不仅可以对杜鹃属起源研究提供分析验证的条件,还能为其引种、保护和新种的搜寻提供有利的空间依据。

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栎属(Quercus L.)按落叶习性可自然分为落叶类型和常绿类型,我国落叶栎类共有20个种和9个变种。落叶栎是栎属中较为进化的一个类群,源于横断山区和云贵高原;除新疆外,全国各省都有落叶栎的天然分布,一些亲缘关系密切的树种之间呈现出较为明显的地理替代分布格局。本研究的目的在于:(1)应用BIOCLIM模型模拟预测落叶栎类植物的潜在分布区,分析其目前的分布格局以及下一步的发展趋势;(2)分析造成落叶栎树地理替代分布格局的主导气候因子,探讨气候因子对不同落叶栎树种地理分布格局的制约作用。 本文以16个在中国具有成片天然分布区的落叶栎树种(包括变种)为研究对象,利用已核对的标本数据以及13个栅格化环境变量图层(分辨率为1km×1km),按照分类(全国广布型、南方广布型、南方狭域型和北方狭域型)和不分类(全部16种)两种处理方式,通过BIOCLIM模型模拟得出了它们的潜在核心分布区和潜在边缘分布区。在运行模型之前,除必选的海拔高程图层外,采用了主成分分析(PCA)的方法从30个候选的气候变量图层中筛选出对相应落叶栎树种的地理分布格局有较大影响的12个图层作为输入图层。然后,本文通过比较两种处理所得模拟结果的ROC(Receiver Operator Characteristic)曲线下方面积AUC(Area Under the Curve),同时结合文献分析来推测不同落叶栎树种地理分布格局的稳定性及发展趋势。结果表明,在无人类活动干扰且种源传播不受阻碍的情况下,全国广布型和南方广布型落叶栎目前的分布格局在维持稳定的基础上有向周边地区扩展的趋势;南方狭域型和北方狭域型落叶栎的分布格局则基本保持稳定,短期内发生扩散的可能很小。 论文中计算了每个落叶栎树种所在分布范围的气候指标(共11个),以便进行下一步的研究。以蒙古栎(Q. mongolica)、辽东栎(Q. wutaishanica)与槲栎(Q. aliena)、锐齿槲栎(Q. aliena var. acuteserrata)、北京槲栎(Q. aliena var. pekingensis)这两组地理替代系列为研究对象,分别采用独立样本t检验和单因素方差分析的方法,分析了气候因子对其地理替代分布格局的主导作用。结果表明,冬季的低温、较高的气温年较差和大陆度是蒙古栎向东北替代辽东栎的主要原因;槲栎向北被北京槲栎和锐齿槲栎替代的主要原因是生长季高温和冬季高温对其分布的双重制约;除最暖月(7月)最高温外,北京槲栎的各项水热指标与另两种槲栎均存在极显著差异,对冬季低温和较大的年较差的适应可能是限制其向南分布的主要原因。 本研究最后部分的内容是对不同类型落叶栎分布区的气候参数进行的主成分分析。结果表明,生长季温度是制约落叶栎分布的最主要的气候因子;寒冷程度和冬季的低温则对其在大尺度范围的扩散有较大影响;另外,降水、年较差与大陆度对落叶栎的向北分布也起着重要的作用。

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SiO2-TiO2 sol-gel films are deposited on SiO2/Si by dip-coating technique. The SiO2-TiO2 strips are fabricated by laser direct writing using all ytterbium fiber laser and followed by chemical etching. Surface structures, morphologies and roughness of the films and strips are characterized. The experimental results demonstrate that the SiO2-TiO2 sol-gel film is loose in Structure and a shrinkage concave groove forms if the film is irradiated by laser beam. The surface roughness of both non-irradiated and laser irradiated areas increases with the chemical etching time. But the roughness of laser irradiated area increases more than that of non-irradiated area under the same etching time. After being etched for 28 s, the surface roughness value of the laser irradiated area increases from 0.3 nm to 3.1 nm.

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In this work the radiation-induced structural changes in F-46 were studied by XPS. In carbon-1s spectra of a highly crosslinked F-46 sheet, the slight increase observed in relative area under the peak due to CF3 was explained by the radiation-induced scission of polymer chains. The peak at 287.6 eV appearing in the spectra caused by ionizing radiation was attributed to carbon structures without primary fluorine substituents, in both branching and unsaturated structures, while that at 289.3 eV was assigned to = CF groups in mid-chain double bonds.

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Volcanic rocks from the northern and middle Okinawa Trough were dated by uranium-series dating method. Differential fractions using magnetic procedure were designed to separate samples. New report on the ages and isotopic data of rocks in the northern trough (especially black pumice) was discussed. Based on the uranium dates and Sr-Nd isotopic ratio, magmatic evolution process of the Okinawa Trough was noted. Firstly, there have been wide silicic volcanic activities in the Okinawa Trough from late Pleistocene to present, and the volcanic rocks can be divided into three subgroups. Secondly, magma generally came from PREMA source area under the Okinawa Trough. Magmatic evolution in the northern trough was similar to the middle, but different to the south. Finally, volcanic activities indicated that opening of the southern Okinawa Trough did not happen due to the collision between Luson Arc and Eurasian Plate until the early Pleistocene.

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The effect of the physiological states of lactating vs. non-lactating (dry) on grazing behavior and herbage intake by yaks was examined in the summer season in the Qinghai alpine area under continuous stocking management. Intake rates were estimated over periods of 1 h by weighing the animals before and after grazing, retaining the feces and urine excreted, and applying a correction for insensible weight loss (the 1-h weight changes of yaks when non-eating before or after the intake rate measurement). It is hypothesized that the lactating yaks should eat more and spend more time eating than nonlactating yaks, because they expend more energy. In our experiment, there were no differences in the effect of physiological state (lactating vs. dry) of yaks observed on the rate of insensible weight loss, intake rate, grazing jaw movement rate, bites per grazing jaw movement, or bite mass. The dry yaks tended to eat more and spend more time eating than lactating yaks, but not significantly so. Compared with the dry yaks, the lactating yaks had a significantly lower bite rate and bites per bolus.

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PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.