Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression

In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961-2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961-1996) and a test period (19972001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Factores determinantes de la integración de la variable medio ambiente en los planteamientos de la economía de la empresa y el marketing

[ES] Actualmente las empresas se enfrentan a un nuevo reto: la integración de los aspectos medioambientales en la gestión y toma de decisiones empresariales. Varios han sido los factores desencadenantes, que han inducido a la Economía de la Empresa y al Marketing a introducir la variable medio ambiente en sus planteamientos, en aras a conformar una base teórica sistematizada que permita abordar con éxito las necesidades medioambientales de la clientela y de la sociedad. En este trabajo se analizan los factores que han contribuido a incrementar la importancia de la variable medio ambiente en la empresa, así como las causas que, en su día, motivaron su exclusión.

El compromiso como variable mediadora para la predicción de las futuras intenciones de consumo en los servicios. Una aproximación empírica a los consumidores de artes escénicas en España

[ES] El presente trabajo de investigación trata de arrojar luz sobre las relaciones entre las variables Satisfacción, Compromiso, Confianza y Futuras Intenciones de compra. Con este fin, se propone un Modelo de Gestión de las Relaciones con Clientes de Servicios en el que se observa que la variable más importante en la consecución de resultados positivos en lo que respecta a intenciones de asistencia futura de los consumidores es el Compromiso.

Contribution of Resource-Based View and Entrepreneurial Orientation on Small Firm Growth

[EN] This research provides a useful framework for identifying a small firms’ propensity to engage in entrepreneurial orientation. We examine the impact of the Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) as a main resource and capability on small firm’ growth. The growth seems to come out as an important demonstration of the entrepreneurial orientation of small firms (Davidsson, 1989; Green and Brown, 1997; Janney and Gregory, 2006). Thus, this research builds on prior conceptual research that suggests a positive integration between entrepreneurial orientation and resource-based view. In the first instance, the research will focus on reviewing literature in the emerging area of entrepreneurial orientation as it applies to growth oriented small firms and resource-based view of the firm. Secondly, an empirical study was developed based on a stratified sample of small firms of manufacturing industry. Data were submitted to a multivariate statistical analysis and a linear regression model was performed in order to predict the influence of the resources and capabilities on small firms’ growth. In this sense, we consider the construct growth as a dependent variable and the ones relates with resources and capabilities (entrepreneur resources, firm resources, networks and EO) as independent variables. The research results suggest a set of resources and capabilities that promote the growth of the small firms. Also, the EO seems to have a predictive value on growth. Explaining variables related with resources and capabilities and EO were identified as essential in growth oriented small firms. It was still possible to conclude that the entrepreneurial firms which grew seem to have resources and develop more capabilities and take advantage in the search for those competences. This attitude reflects on the EO of the firm. This study has important implication for both researchers and practitioners. It highlights the necessity of firms to develop superior EO of all their members and also to invest on better resources and consequently superior capabilities as a way of reaching higher levels of growth. While previous authors have attempted to analyse certain aspects of this process (linkage between entrepreneurial orientation and growth), this research developed a framework that combines these and others factors (resource-based view) pertinent to growth oriented small firms. The results support the necessity to identify explicative variables of multiple levels to explain the growth of small firms. The adoption of an entrepreneurial orientation as an indispensable variable to the growth oriented small firms seems pertinent.

Factores explicativos de la intención de emprender en la mujer. Aspectos diferenciales en la población universitaria según la variable género

El objetivo del presente trabajo de investigación es arrojar luz sobre los factores que explican la menor intencionalidad en la población femenina para involucrarse en procesos de creación de empresas. Para ello, se ha desarrollado un modelo de ecuaciones estructurales que identifica un conjunto de variables que permiten explicar la intención de emprender en la población potencialmente emprendedora. La validación del modelo se ha realizado mediante una encuesta realizada a 1222 estudiantes de 12 titulaciones diferentes de la Universidad de Málaga. La aplicación del modelo a las poblaciones masculina y femenina ha permitido apreciar diferencias significativas en los patrones de comportamiento en función del género, identificando un proceso más complejo y necesitado de apoyo externo en la población femenina con respecto a la masculina.

Cannabis use and involuntary admission may mediate long-term adherence in first-episode psychosis patients: a prospective longitudinal study

Background: This study aimed to examine factors associated with treatment adherence in first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients followed up over 8 years, especially involuntary first admission and stopping cannabis use. Methods: This prospective, longitudinal study of FEP patients collected data on symptoms, adherence, functioning,and substance use. Adherence to treatment was the main outcome variable and was categorized as ‘good’ or ‘bad’. Cannabis use during follow-up was stratified as continued use, stopped use, and never used. Bivariate and logistic regression models identified factors significantly associated with adherence and changes in adherence over the 8-year follow-up period. Results: Of the 98 FEP patients analyzed at baseline, 57.1% had involuntary first admission, 74.4% bad adherence,and 52% cannabis use. Good adherence at baseline was associated with Global Assessment of Functioning score (p = 0.019), Hamilton Depression Rating Scale score (p = 0.017) and voluntary admission (p < 0.001). Adherence patterns over 8 years included: 43.4% patients always bad, 26.1% always good, 25% improved from bad to good. Among the improved adherence group, 95.7% had involuntary first admission and 38.9% stopped cannabis use. In the subgroup of patients with bad adherence at baseline, involuntary first admission and quitting cannabis use during follow up were associated with improved adherence. Conclusions: The long-term association between treatment adherence and type of first admission and cannabis use in FEP patients suggest targets for intervention to improve clinical outcomes.

Use of generalised additive models to categorise continuous variables in clinical prediction

13 P.

Robust speed control for a variable speed wind turbine

Modern wind turbines are designed in order to work in variable speed opera-tions. To perform this task, these turbines are provided with adjustable speed generators, like the double feed induction generator (DFIG). One of the main advantages of adjustable speed generators is improving the system efficiency compared with _xed speed generators, because turbine speed can be adjusted as a function of wind speed in order to maximize the output power. However, this system requires a suitable speed controller in order to track the optimal reference speed of the wind turbine. In this work, a sliding mode control for variable speed wind turbines is proposed. The proposed design also uses the vector oriented control theory in order to simplify the DFIG dynamical equations. The stability analysis of the proposed controller has been carried out under wind variations and pa-rameter uncertainties using the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, the simulated results show on the one hand that the proposed controller provides a high-performance dynamic behavior, and on the other hand that this scheme is robust with respect to parameter uncertainties and wind speed variations, which usually appear in real systems.

Adaptive variable structure control law for a variable speed wind turbine

Presentado en el 13th WSEAS International Conference on Automatic Control, Modelling and Simulation, ACMOS'11

Sliding mode control law for a variable speedwind turbine

Modern wind turbines are designed in order to work in variable speed operations. To perform this task, wind turbines are provided with adjustable speed generators, like the double feed induction generator. One of the main advantage of adjustable speed generators is improving the system efficiency compared to fixed speed generators, because turbine speed can be adjusted as a function of wind speed in order to maximize the output power. However this system requires a suitable speed controller in order to track the optimal reference speed of the wind turbine. In this work, a sliding mode control for variable speed wind turbines is proposed. An integral sliding surface is used, because the integral term avoids the use of the acceleration signal, which reduces the high frequency components in the sliding variable. The proposed design also uses the vector oriented control theory in order to simplify the generator dynamical equations. The stability analysis of the proposed controller has been carried out under wind variations and parameter uncertainties by using the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally simulated results show, on the one hand that the proposed controller provides a high-performance dynamic behavior, and on the other hand that this scheme is robust with respect to parameter uncertainties and wind speed variations, that usually appear in real systems.

Sliding mode control strategy for variable speed wind turbines

EFTA 2009

Variable structure control for maximum wind power extraction

EuroPES 2009

Euskadiko landa-etxeen eskaintzaren analisia

[EN] The following study aims at analyzing which variable changes the average price of cottages in the Basque Autonomous Community. Historically, there have been more cottages in Gipuzkoa and nowadays it remains the same, even if the number of cottages in the other two provinces has raised. Geographically, the fact of having a coast, lakes, reservoirs and mountains in Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa has lead to having more cottages in the two provinces as well as a growing tourism. For this reason, this study analyzes if that is caused by the same variable in the three provinces or if there is a difference between them, and also in which province lies the biggest difference. For achieving the mentioned goals, the information of 2012 taken from the web page of Nekatur Nekazalturismo Elkartea has been a very useful source.

Proposal and validation of methodologies for the categorisation of continuous variables in the development of prediction models

158 p.

Aplicación de metodología estadística para predecir la mortalidad de pacientes con neumonía

[es]Con esta memoria se pretende crear una herramienta de trabajo que ayude a los médicos a clasificar a los pacientes que padecen neumonía en distintos grupos de riesgo dependiendo de su gravedad. Para ello, hemos estudiado la regresión logística, que relaciona la variable respuesta mortalidad con el resto de variables (datos demográficos, antecedentes médicos y datos clínicos y exploratorios del paciente). Una vez creado el score a partir del modelo de regresión, hemos querido validarlo y compararlo con otros dos que utilizan los neumólogos: el CURB-65 y el FINE.