Diseño de un modelo de riesgo integral de incendios forestales mediante técnicas multicriterio y su automatización en sistemas de información geográfica : una aplicación en la Comunidad Valenciana

Los incendios forestales son la principal causa de mortalidad de árboles en la Europa mediterránea y constituyen la amenaza más seria para los ecosistemas forestales españoles. En la Comunidad Valenciana, diariamente se despliega cerca de un centenar de vehículos de vigilancia, cuya distribución se apoya, fundamentalmente, en un índice de riesgo de incendios calculado en función de las condiciones meteorológicas. La tesis se centra en el diseño y validación de un nuevo índice de riesgo integrado de incendios, especialmente adaptado a la región mediterránea y que facilite el proceso de toma de decisiones en la distribución diaria de los medios de vigilancia contra incendios forestales. El índice adopta el enfoque de riesgo integrado introducido en la última década y que incluye dos componentes de riesgo: el peligro de ignición y la vulnerabilidad. El primero representa la probabilidad de que se inicie un fuego y el peligro potencial para que se propague, mientras que la vulnerabilidad tiene en cuenta las características del territorio y los efectos potenciales del fuego sobre el mismo. Para el cálculo del peligro potencial se han identificado indicadores relativos a los agentes naturales y humanos causantes de incendios, la ocurrencia histórica y el estado de los combustibles, extremo muy relacionado con la meteorología y las especies. En cuanto a la vulnerabilidad se han empleado indicadores representativos de los efectos potenciales del incendio (comportamiento del fuego, infraestructuras de defensa), como de las características del terreno (valor, capacidad de regeneración…). Todos estos indicadores constituyen una estructura jerárquica en la que, siguiendo las recomendaciones de la Comisión europea para índices de riesgo de incendios, se han incluido indicadores representativos del riesgo a corto plazo y a largo plazo. El cálculo del valor final del índice se ha llevado a cabo mediante la progresiva agregación de los componentes que forman cada uno de los niveles de la estructura jerárquica del índice y su integración final. Puesto que las técnicas de decisión multicriterio están especialmente orientadas a tratar con problemas basados en estructuras jerárquicas, se ha aplicado el método TOPSIS para obtener la integración final del modelo. Se ha introducido en el modelo la opinión de los expertos, mediante la ponderación de cada uno de los componentes del índice. Se ha utilizado el método AHP, para obtener las ponderaciones de cada experto y su integración en un único peso por cada indicador. Para la validación del índice se han empleado los modelos de Ecuaciones de Estimación Generalizadas, que tienen en cuenta posibles respuestas correlacionadas. Para llevarla a cabo se emplearon los datos de oficiales de incendios ocurridos durante el período 1994 al 2003, referenciados a una cuadrícula de 10x10 km empleando la ocurrencia de incendios y su superficie, como variables dependientes. Los resultados de la validación muestran un buen funcionamiento del subíndice de peligro de ocurrencia con un alto grado de correlación entre el subíndice y la ocurrencia, un buen ajuste del modelo logístico y un buen poder discriminante. Por su parte, el subíndice de vulnerabilidad no ha presentado una correlación significativa entre sus valores y la superficie de los incendios, lo que no descarta su validez, ya que algunos de sus componentes tienen un carácter subjetivo, independiente de la superficie incendiada. En general el índice presenta un buen funcionamiento para la distribución de los medios de vigilancia en función del peligro de inicio. No obstante, se identifican y discuten nuevas líneas de investigación que podrían conducir a una mejora del ajuste global del índice. En concreto se plantea la necesidad de estudiar más profundamente la aparente correlación que existe en la provincia de Valencia entre la superficie forestal que ocupa cada cuadrícula de 10 km del territorio y su riesgo de incendios y que parece que a menor superficie forestal, mayor riesgo de incendio. Otros aspectos a investigar son la sensibilidad de los pesos de cada componente o la introducción de factores relativos a los medios potenciales de extinción en el subíndice de vulnerabilidad. Summary Forest fires are the main cause of tree mortality in Mediterranean Europe and the most serious threat to the Spanisf forest. In the Spanish autonomous region of Valencia, forest administration deploys a mobile fleet of 100 surveillance vehicles in forest land whose allocation is based on meteorological index of wildlandfire risk. This thesis is focused on the design and validation of a new Integrated Wildland Fire Risk Index proposed to efficient allocation of vehicles and specially adapted to the Mediterranean conditions. Following the approaches of integrated risk developed last decade, the index includes two risk components: Wildland Fire Danger and Vulnerability. The former represents the probability a fire ignites and the potential hazard of fire propagation or spread danger, while vulnerability accounts for characteristics of the land and potential effects of fire. To calculate the Wildland Fire Danger, indicators of ignition and spread danger have been identified, including human and natural occurrence agents, fuel conditions, historical occurrence and spread rate. Regarding vulnerability se han empleado indicadores representativos de los efectos potenciales del incendio (comportamiento del fuego, infraestructurasd de defensa), como de las características del terreno (valor, capacidad de regeneración…). These indicators make up the hierarchical structure for the index, which, following the criteria of the European Commission both short and long-term indicators have been included. Integration consists of the progressive aggregation of the components that make up every level in risk the index and, after that, the integration of these levels to obtain a unique value for the index. As Munticriteria methods are oriented to deal with hierarchically structured problems and with situations in which conflicting goals prevail, TOPSIS method is used in the integration of components. Multicriteria methods were also used to incorporate expert opinion in weighting of indicators and to carry out the aggregation process into the final index. The Analytic Hierarchy Process method was used to aggregate experts' opinions on each component into a single value. Generalized Estimation Equations, which account for possible correlated responses, were used to validate the index. Historical records of daily occurrence for the period from 1994 to 2003, referred to a 10x10-km-grid cell, as well as the extent of the fires were the dependant variables. The results of validation showed good Wildland Fire Danger component performance, with high correlation degree between Danger and occurrence, a good fit of the logistic model used and a good discrimination power. The vulnerability component has not showed a significant correlation between their values and surface fires, which does not mean the index is not valid, because of the subjective character of some of its components, independent of the surface of the fires. Overall, the index could be used to optimize the preventing resources allocation. Nevertheless, new researching lines are identified and discussed to improve the overall performance of the index. More specifically the need of study the inverse relationship between the value of the wildfire Fire Danger component and the forested surface of each 10 - km cell is set out. Other points to be researched are the sensitivity of the index component´s weight and the possibility of taking into account indicators related to fire fighting resources to make up the vulnerability component.

Refuerzo de pilares con tejidos de F.C.

Los pilares son los elementos estructurales más sensibles de una estructura, por lo que resulta muy frecuente su refuerzo. En el presente trabajo se realiza una campaña de ensayos de pilares en modelo reducido, para este fin. Se construyeron 30 pilares en modelo reducido, 15 de ellos de sección cuadrada y 15 de sección circular. En cada caso se formaron 3 lotes, 5 pilares sin refuerzo (pilares testigo), 5 pilares con una capa de refuerzo y 5 pilares con dos capas de refuerzo. Los ensayos se realizaron en las instalaciones de GEOCISA. El trabajo comprende un estudio teórico-experimental del comportamiento mecánico de pilares de hormigón armado reforzados por confinamiento mediante la técnica de adhesión de tejidos de fibra de carbono, sometidos a una carga axial. Se describen los modos de fallo de forma comparativa entre los distintos lotes, para plantear finalmente una serie de conclusiones y recomendaciones.

Information reconciliation methods in secret key distribution

We consider in this thesis the problem of information reconciliation in the context of secret key distillation between two legitimate parties. In some scenarios of interest this problem can be advantageously solved with low density parity check (LDPC) codes optimized for the binary symmetric channel. In particular, we demonstrate that our method leads to a significant efficiency improvement, with respect to earlier interactive reconciliation methods. We propose a protocol based on LDPC codes that can be adapted to changes in the communication channel extending the original source. The efficiency of our protocol is only limited by the quality of the code and, while transmitting more information than needed to reconcile Alice’s and Bob’s sequences, it does not reveal any more information on the original source than an ad-hoc code would have revealed.---ABSTRACT---En esta tesis estudiamos el problema de la reconciliación de información en el contexto de la destilación de secreto entre dos partes. En algunos escenarios de interés, códigos de baja densidad de ecuaciones de paridad (LDPC) adaptados al canal binario simétrico ofrecen una buena solución al problema estudiado. Demostramos que nuestro método mejora significativamente la eficiencia de la reconciliación. Proponemos un protocolo basado en códigos LDPC que puede ser adaptado a cambios en el canal de comunicaciones mediante una extensión de la fuente original. La eficiencia de nuestro protocolo está limitada exclusivamente por el código utilizado y no revela información adicional sobre la fuente original que la que un código con la tasa de información adaptada habría revelado.

Coastal shapes. Geentic clasification 1973 - 2010

An analysis of a stretch of coastline shows multiple alterations through environmental climate actions. The narrow, fragile line displays singularities due to three basic causes. The first is the discontinuity in feed or localised loss of solid coastal material. Called massics, their simplest examples are deltas and undersea canyons. The second is due to a brusque change in the alignment of the shoreline’s edge, headlands, groins, harbour and defence works. Given the name of geometric singularities, their simplest uses are artificial beaches in the shelter of a straight groin or spits. The third is due to littoral dynamics, emerged or submerged obstacles which diffract and refract wave action, causing a change in the sea level’s super-elevation in breaker areas. Called dynamics, the simplest examples are salients, tombolos and shells. Discussion of the causes giving rise to variations in the coastline and formation of singularities is the raison d’être of investigation, using actual cases to check the suitability of the classification proposed, the tangential or differential action of waves on the coastal landscape in addition to possible simple, compound and complex shapes detected in nature, both in erosion and deposit processes

Practical case with regard to applying the functional and environmental method to low crest level, detached breakwaters

The research work as presented in this article covers the design of detached breakwaters since they constitute a type of coastal defence work with which to combat many of the erosion problems found on beaches in a stable, sustainable fashion. The main aim of this work is to formulate a functional and environmental (but not structural) design method, enabling the fundamental characteristics of a detached breakwater to be defined as a function of the effect it is wished to induce on the coast, and taking into account variables of a different nature (climate, geomorphology and geometry) influencing the changes the shoreline undergoes after its construction. With this article, it is intended to submit the final result of the investigation undertaken, applying the detached breakwater design method as developed to solving a practical case. Thus it may be shown how the method enables a detached breakwater’s geometric pre-sizing to be tackled at a place on the coast with certain climate, geomorphology and littoral dynamic characteristics, first setting the final state of equilibrium it is wanted to obtain therein after its construction.

Methodology for the design of offshore wind farms

Although still in an early stage, offshore wind development is now characterized by a boom process. This leads to the necessity of applying an integral management model for the design of offshore wind facilities, being the purpose of the model to achieve technical, economical and environmental viability, all within a sustainable development framework. The foregoing led to the research project exposed in this paper, consisting of drawing up an offshore wind farms methodological proposal; this methodology has a global and/or general nature or point of view whilst searching for optimization of the overall process of operations leading to the design of this type of installations and establishing collated theoretical bases for the further development of management tools. This methodological proposal follows a classical engineering thought scheme: it begins with the alternatives study, and ends with the detailed design. With this in mind, the paper includes the following sections: introduction, methodology used for the research project, conditioning factors, methodological proposal for the design of offshore wind farms, checking the methodological proposal, and conclusions

Offshore Wind Farms: Foundations and influence on the Littoral Processes

Offshore wind farms are beginning to form part of coastal and marine landscapes located in dynamic surroundings. An integral management model must therefore be applied to achieve not only technical and economic viability of the project but also respect for the environment. Amongst other aspects, the latter calls for an analysis of the possible impact these facilities may have on littoral processes and this requires the differences between littoral processes prior and subsequent to the facility’s construction to be known. The maritime climate, the composition of the coast, lay-out distribution and characteristics of the facility’s components need to be known, particularly foundations as they are the main obstacles waves and currents meet. This article first addresses different aspects related to an offshore wind farm’s influence on the analysis of how it affects littoral dynamics and, because of their importance in this study, pays special attention to foundations. Coastal erosion due to this type of facility is then examined. The main conclusion of this article is that, whilst there are certain opinions claiming the coast is not affected by the presence of this kind of facility since the distance from location to coast and between wind turbine generators themselves is long, the impact must be analysed in each specific case, at least until experience proves otherwise and criteria are adopted in this respect.

Coastal Urban Flood Resislience versus Climate Change

Processes of founding and expanding cities in coastal areas have undergone great changes over time driven by environmental conditions. Coastal settlements looked for places above flood levels and away from swamps and other wetlands whenever possible. As populations grew, cities were extending trying to avoid low and wet lands. No city has been able to limit its growth. The risk of flooding can never be eliminated, but only reduced to the extent possible. Flooding of coastal areas is today dramatically attributed to eustasic sea level rise caused by global climate change. This can be inaccurate. Current climate change is generating an average sea level upward trend, but other regional and local factors result in this trend being accentuated in some places or attenuated, and even reversed, in others. Then, the intensity and frequency of coastal flooding around the planet, although not so much as a unique result of this general eustasic elevation, but rather of the superposition of marine and crustal dynamic elements, the former also climate-related, which give rise to a temporary raising in average sea level in the short term. Since the Little Ice Age the planet has been suffering a global warming change leading to sea level rise. The idea of being too obeying to anthropogenic factors may be attributed to Arrhenius (1896), though it is of much later highlight after the sixties of the last century. Never before, the human factor had been able of such an influence on climate. However, other types of changes in sea levels became apparent, resulting from vertical movements of the crust, modifications of sea basins due to continents fracturing, drifting and coming together, or to different types of climate patterns. Coastal zones are then doubly susceptible to floods. Precipitation immediately triggers pluvial flooding. If it continues upland or when snow and glaciers melt eventually fluvial flooding can occur. The urban development presence represents modifying factors. Additional interference is caused by river and waste water drainage systems. Climate also influences sea levels in coastal areas, where tides as well as the structure and dynamic of the geoid and its crust come into play. From the sea, waters can flood and break or push back berms and other coastline borders. The sea level, controlling the mouth of the main channel of the basin's drainage system, is ultimately what governs flood levels. A temporary rise in sea level acts as a dam at the mouth. Even in absence of that global change, so, floods are likely going to increase in many urban coastal areas. Some kind of innovative methodologies and practices should be needed to get more flood resilience cities

Diques verticales con láminas pendulares para amortiguación del oleaje incidente y extracción de energía, DILAPE. Revisión del Estado del Arte y Modelado Físico

Análisis de los criterios de Osanai y Watabe para la obtención de energía en diques verticales, siguiendo criterios de péndulo simple, tanto directo como indirecto en mares sin marea y reduciendo la cota de coronación

Foundations for offshoe wind farms

Análisis de las cimentaciones de los parques eólicos marinos situados en aguas de transición y en indefinidas, tipo gravedad; rozamiento, tipo pilotes; plataformas y flotantes, estudiando el fenómeno conjunto de interacción suelo - estructura y socavación

Urban Coastal Flooding and Climate Change

Dentro del marco del Proyecto Europeo Smartest se presenta la publicación de las inundaciones en ciudades próximas a la costa y la influencia del cambio climático en la interface fluvio - marina con las condiciones ambientales que afectan al comportamiento evolutivo de la ciudad

Handy or practical student. Objective: to pass or to learn

With the introduction of the European Higher Education Area and the development of the "Bologna" method in learning certain technological subjects, a pilot assessment procedure was launched in the "old" plan to observe, monitor and analyze the acquiring knowledge of senior students in various academic courses. This paper is a reflection on culture and knowledge. Will students accommodate to get a lower score on tests because they know they have a lot of tooltips to achieve their objectives?. Are their skills lower for these reason?.

Meteocean Influence on Inland and Coastal Floods in the East of Spain

The Santa Irene flood, at the end of October 1982, is one of the most dramatically and widely reported flood events in Spain. Its renown is mainly attributable to the collapse of the Tous dam, but its main message is to be the paradigm of the incidence of the maritime/littoral weather and its temporal sea-level rise on the coastal plains inland floods. The Santa Irene flood was attributable to a meteorological phenomenon known as gota fría (cold drop), a relatively frequent and intense rainy phenomenon on the Iberian Peninsula, particularly on the Spanish E to SE inlands and coasts. There are some circumstances that can easily come together to unleash the cold drop there: cold and dry polar air masses coming onto the whole Iberian Peninsula and the north of Africa, high sea-water temperatures, and low atmospheric pressure (cyclone) areas in the western Mediterranean basin; these circumstances are quite common during the autumn and, as it happens, in other places around the world (E/SE Africa). Their occurrence, however, shows a great space-temporal variability (in a similar way to hurricanes on Caribbean and western North Atlantic areas or also in a similar way to typhoons). In fact, all of these are equivalent, although different, phenomena, able to have a different magnitude each time. This paper describes the results of a detailed analysis and reflection about this cold drop phenomenon as a whole, on the generation of its rains, and on the different natures and consequences of its flood. This paper also explains the ways in which the nearby maritime weather and the consequential sea level govern floods on different zones of any hydrographical basin. The Santa Irene case can be considered as a paradigm to explain the influence of nearby maritime climatic conditions on flooding phenomena not only in coastal but also in upward inland areas.

Terminales multi-cliente vs terminales dedicadas. Estudio del caso del puerto de Valencia, España

A través de simulación se estudia el proceso de llegada y servicio de buques en las terminales del puerto de Valencias: Marítima Valenciana CT (terminal pública) y MSC CT (terminal dedicada). Se analizan las variables: “productividad del muelle (TEUs/m)”, “grado de ocupación”, “tiempos de espera”, “número de puestos de atraque” y “Probabilidad de que en un instante determinado se encuentren “n” buques en el sistema de atraque”.